NFL training camps: What to watch and what to ignore
The draft is over. Mini-camps are through. In 2009, preseason NFL doesn?t begin until the second weekend of August. But training camps around the league are just around the corner, opening in less than two weeks.
As camps open, bettors will face a deluge of information from beat writers and TV pundits ? guys who are paid to create stories of interest to their readers. Much of this information is useless for sports bettors. In this article, I?ll identify things to watch in the early stages of training camps and things that professional bettors tend to ignore.
Watch: Serious injuries and cluster injuries.
Every team in the league is going to suffer some key injuries between now and December. But teams that take a beating in August are already off to a bad start. Minor injuries are not a serious concern, but when teams start to lose multiple starters for extended periods of time, or suffer a season ending injury to a star player, it definitely matters.
For example, last year, the Washington Redskins lost defensive end Philip Daniels for the year with a torn ACL in July. They never recovered from the loss of their defensive leader.
Cluster injuries are another serious concern. Last year in training camp, the Indianapolis Colts couldn?t put together a healthy offensive line. Tony Dungy didn?t want to risk injury to Peyton Manning playing behind a makeshift line, so neither Manning nor the offensive line was ready to go once live action began. The Colts proceeded to go 0-4 in their first four lined games as a favorite in August and September.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were another team that suffered numerous injuries on their offensive line in early August. Those injuries affected the team and their supporters dramatically, as the Jags finished with the single worst pointspread record in the league; over-rated from Day 1 of the preseason.
Ignore: Minor Injuries
Never forget that writers and TV talking heads need content every single day. Lots of players will get dinged up in August. Many others will be held out of practice in training camp in an effort to keep them healthy and fresh from nagging minor injuries. The pundits will report about every hangnail. Savvy bettors will ignore the little stuff, focusing only on the injuries that have regular season implications.
Watch: Long-Term Holdouts
It?s not uncommon for veterans to skip the early portion of training camp as a negotiating ploy. Two-a-days in the summer heat are brutal and a month living in a dormitory away from family and friends is the worst part of the job for many NFL players. If a veteran can miss some camp while improving their chance to earn extra money via a holdout, it?s a win-win situation for the individual player.
When these holdouts drag on into the start of preseason, it starts to matter. Players that miss most or all of camp are more susceptible to injuries and they rarely start the season in good form. This is particularly true for high draft choices making the difficult transition from college to the NFL.
Look no further than the two biggest holdouts from last year: Saints defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis and Jaguars defensive end Derrick Harvey. Both were expected to have a major impact on their respective squads as rookies. After missing training camp, neither guy was acclimated once the regular season began, and both suffered through miserable rookie seasons.
Ignore: Short-Term Holdouts
As I wrote above, many veterans look to avoid as much training camp as possible. As long as these seasoned professionals report by the time preseason games begin, the holdouts are essentially meaningless.
Watch: Quarterback Competition Struggles
Every report out of San Francisco last year indicated that the team was not going to get solid quarterback play from any of their QB candidates. Shawn Hill, Alex Smith and JT O?Sullivan (specifically brought in to run Mike Martz?s offense) didn?t develop a lick of chemistry with their receivers. The 49ers offense never gelled and San Francisco?s 2-5 SU and ATS start cost former head coach Mike Nolan his job by the end of October.
Teams can win in the NFL with mediocre quarterback play as long as they have a strong running game and a solid defense. But teams that suffer from poor quarterback play have a tough time winning in this league. When there?s a QB battle in training camp and no one steps up to take the job, sharp bettors take notice.
Ignore: Veteran Quarterback Struggles
Peyton Manning missed all of training camp last year and all five preseason games. It didn?t matter one iota. Manning finished the season with more than 4,000 passing yards for the ninth time in his career. The Colts set an NFL record as the first team in league history to win at least twelve regular season games for six consecutive seasons, despite their aforementioned early season ATS problems as a favorite.
Don?t fret when veteran QB?s miss time in training camp. Minor injuries make headlines, and when a coach announces that his established starting QB will be on the sidelines for a week or two, bettors and pundits routinely overreact.
The draft is over. Mini-camps are through. In 2009, preseason NFL doesn?t begin until the second weekend of August. But training camps around the league are just around the corner, opening in less than two weeks.
As camps open, bettors will face a deluge of information from beat writers and TV pundits ? guys who are paid to create stories of interest to their readers. Much of this information is useless for sports bettors. In this article, I?ll identify things to watch in the early stages of training camps and things that professional bettors tend to ignore.
Watch: Serious injuries and cluster injuries.
Every team in the league is going to suffer some key injuries between now and December. But teams that take a beating in August are already off to a bad start. Minor injuries are not a serious concern, but when teams start to lose multiple starters for extended periods of time, or suffer a season ending injury to a star player, it definitely matters.
For example, last year, the Washington Redskins lost defensive end Philip Daniels for the year with a torn ACL in July. They never recovered from the loss of their defensive leader.
Cluster injuries are another serious concern. Last year in training camp, the Indianapolis Colts couldn?t put together a healthy offensive line. Tony Dungy didn?t want to risk injury to Peyton Manning playing behind a makeshift line, so neither Manning nor the offensive line was ready to go once live action began. The Colts proceeded to go 0-4 in their first four lined games as a favorite in August and September.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were another team that suffered numerous injuries on their offensive line in early August. Those injuries affected the team and their supporters dramatically, as the Jags finished with the single worst pointspread record in the league; over-rated from Day 1 of the preseason.
Ignore: Minor Injuries
Never forget that writers and TV talking heads need content every single day. Lots of players will get dinged up in August. Many others will be held out of practice in training camp in an effort to keep them healthy and fresh from nagging minor injuries. The pundits will report about every hangnail. Savvy bettors will ignore the little stuff, focusing only on the injuries that have regular season implications.
Watch: Long-Term Holdouts
It?s not uncommon for veterans to skip the early portion of training camp as a negotiating ploy. Two-a-days in the summer heat are brutal and a month living in a dormitory away from family and friends is the worst part of the job for many NFL players. If a veteran can miss some camp while improving their chance to earn extra money via a holdout, it?s a win-win situation for the individual player.
When these holdouts drag on into the start of preseason, it starts to matter. Players that miss most or all of camp are more susceptible to injuries and they rarely start the season in good form. This is particularly true for high draft choices making the difficult transition from college to the NFL.
Look no further than the two biggest holdouts from last year: Saints defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis and Jaguars defensive end Derrick Harvey. Both were expected to have a major impact on their respective squads as rookies. After missing training camp, neither guy was acclimated once the regular season began, and both suffered through miserable rookie seasons.
Ignore: Short-Term Holdouts
As I wrote above, many veterans look to avoid as much training camp as possible. As long as these seasoned professionals report by the time preseason games begin, the holdouts are essentially meaningless.
Watch: Quarterback Competition Struggles
Every report out of San Francisco last year indicated that the team was not going to get solid quarterback play from any of their QB candidates. Shawn Hill, Alex Smith and JT O?Sullivan (specifically brought in to run Mike Martz?s offense) didn?t develop a lick of chemistry with their receivers. The 49ers offense never gelled and San Francisco?s 2-5 SU and ATS start cost former head coach Mike Nolan his job by the end of October.
Teams can win in the NFL with mediocre quarterback play as long as they have a strong running game and a solid defense. But teams that suffer from poor quarterback play have a tough time winning in this league. When there?s a QB battle in training camp and no one steps up to take the job, sharp bettors take notice.
Ignore: Veteran Quarterback Struggles
Peyton Manning missed all of training camp last year and all five preseason games. It didn?t matter one iota. Manning finished the season with more than 4,000 passing yards for the ninth time in his career. The Colts set an NFL record as the first team in league history to win at least twelve regular season games for six consecutive seasons, despite their aforementioned early season ATS problems as a favorite.
Don?t fret when veteran QB?s miss time in training camp. Minor injuries make headlines, and when a coach announces that his established starting QB will be on the sidelines for a week or two, bettors and pundits routinely overreact.
