Betting the NFL is about uncovering edges
For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it?s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.
This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you?ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.
I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.
The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.
One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.
Our study went back thru the last four seasons and here is what we learned about T.O.P. both good and bad.
The most noticeable point is that every team was for the most part a running team. Stating the obvious, it is easiest to control the clock when running the pigskin because there is no stoppage of time. Of the 20 teams that finished in the Top 5 of T.O.P., only two had losing records (Oakland 2007 and Minnesota 2006), and that was predicated on poor quarterback play, which forced those teams to run the ball. Even the 2007 New England Patriots, who were 16-0 during the regular season, possessed the ball the second most time during that season. Most will remember the short passing game and prolific scoring offense controlled expertly by quarterback Tom Brady; however what was lost in all of New England success was an above average running game that totaled 1,849 yards, good for 13th overall.
What we see in the above chart is controlling the clock leads to wins and spread covers. Last season, Baltimore and the New York Giants were tremendous in working the clock and covered 75 percent of their contests. The uninformed naysayer will point to these teams had leads and just ran out the clock in the fourth quarter to create time difference. To this I say ?ridiculous?. The Ravens and G-Men are two teams without question committed to running the ball all four quarters and just don?t build advantage late in game.
One aspect of detractors that never made sense to me was those who complained about rushing attempts that milked the clock to ice games. Just because a team has a lead in the fourth quarter and is running the ball does not automatically mean they win the game and cover the spread. They have to be skillful and more talented on that day to win the game and in all likelihood ran the ball throughout the course of the game, which helped lead to victory.
Running the ball means controlling the line of scrimmage. You hear coaches preach it all the time, ?Move the chains?. This deflates a defense and if they are being manhandled, it?s tough to lineup up in stance and have your backside whipped time after time. Nearly as bad is the defensive back who becomes bored facing opponents running game and falls asleep on third and two, as his receiver runs five-yard comeback route for a first down to keep the time moving, when he foolishly played 10 yards off the receiver.
Overall, these teams were healthy 183-130-7 against the spread, for winning percentage of 58.4 percent. To put that number into perspective, this would mean dime players picked up $4,000 following these teams.
The complete opposite perspective is teams that have more than their fair share of three and outs, putting the defense in peril, being overworked. In this chart below, only two teams were .500 or better in the last four years. The 2005 Miami squad was 9-7, but had losing spread record at 7-9. The four season?s total results have these 20 teams playing bad football with 96-224 record, at 41.7 percentage. These teams faired a little better versus the oddsmakers at 141-174-5 ATS, however that mostly due to Buffalo and Tennessee in 2006, when both teams had a number of late rallies to win or nearly win contests for covers.
If an offense can?t stay on the field or the defense can?t get off it, these teams are bound to lose on a more continual basis and profits are waiting to be taken.
Profit with total points scored, really
Another profitable nugget found comes from the simplest means of playing football, scoring points. How is this for stating the obvious, if you outscore the opposing team, you win the game and most likely cover the spread. If you don?t score enough points, you lose and probably don?t cover the spread. Pretty revolutionary material, even for John Madden.
That?s how it works sometimes, we all try so hard to find unique systems, we overlook what is in plain sight and staring us in the face in every newspaper or website we visit. As you can see below, the profits are right there to be taken. Consider the worst year was 2006 at 45-34-1 ATS, with a very respectable 56.9 percentage. 2007 was a superior season at 50-29-1 ATS, 63.2 percent, with an exceptional collection of teams that was 66-14 overall. Last year?s grouping made a nice profit at 58.9 percent, but take away the Giants and they were below .500 for straight up record. Best guess is this is more of anomaly and normalcy will return this season. Collectively since 2005, these squads are186-126-9 ATS, for a sweet 59.4 percent ?show me the money? record.
It?s not hard to determine, if you can?t score you can win, unless you have a Top 5 defense and chances are they will be worn out before the year?s end trying to keep foes out of the end zone with few scoring contributions. Here the team scoring the least amount of points were 135-177-8 ATS, covering just 43.2 percent of the time.
Defense builds bankrolls also
In last year?s ****** Edge Football Annual, editor Steve Makinen proved the value of following the stat, yards per pass attempt. Steve has been a long time believer in this particular statistic, believing that throwing the ball is tantamount to a NFL team?s success. He validated his point, showing teams covered the spread 58 percent from 2003-07.
If throwing the ball efficiently is this important in the pro game, there has to be a cause and effect for defending the pass of similar proportion. I carried out the theme in much the same fashion as other studies in this article and was somewhat surprised by the calculated results.
Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been two of the very best defensive teams over the last six or seven years and were in the Top 5 of fewest yards allowed per pass three times in the last four years. The combination of having debilitating pass rush along with defensive backs that can close on receivers and make big hits gives the Steelers and Ravens edge few teams can match.
Last season, these were the best two squads in football in allowing the fewest yards in this category and headed a group that was very profitable at 49-30-1, 62 percent.
This ended up being the high water mark in our research, which left me a trifle disappointed. The year 2007 was the biggest culprit for lack of betting success, with a very unimpressive 41-36-1 ATS mark. The four year period yielded a 178-136-6 ATS record, for a decent 56.6 percent.
Upon further exploration, I came across numbers that one can really sink their teeth into.
The worst teams against the yards per pass gave a much poorer showing and delivered the kind of profits we?re seeking.
What we learn here is valuable information that can be applied relatively early in the season and profited from all season long. Checking out the list of teams, all for the most part had a common denominator, they played mostly zone defense in the defensive backfield. Why is this important? With the exception of teams Tony Dungy coached that played Cover 2 nearly all the time, playing zone defense is designed to cover up weakness. If the cornerbacks lack man coverage skills, the zone defense can work, as long as team is able to generate a pass rush.
Where this breaks down is if a defense does not apply pressure to the quarterback, there is more than enough passing lanes to find an open receiver. The Indianapolis Colts never have had exceptional corners, with their best attributes being closing speed and tackling. The teams on this list seldom had enough talent in the secondary and offered a spotty pass rush.
This made them vulnerable to any competent quarterback with a degree of accuracy. These clubs for the most part were baneful and picked apart, conceding an unusual amount of big plays, which ultimately led to points.
Football shows how fickle fate can be with Baltimore ranked 28th in this category in 2007, blended in with three Top 5 performances. As you might recall, the Ravens secondary was ravaged with injuries that season and a few key members up front were either out or walking wounded. Baltimore was forced to play far more zone than accustomed to and was torched with 5-11 record, with just three covers of the spread.
Adding up the numbers, we arrive at mouth-watering 191-123-6 ATS mark, 60.1 percent, playing against these teams who futilely try and stop the forward pass. No way to know at this juncture, but the trend line is extremely positive for this stat, with the bottom five 39-121 straight and 52-105-3 against the oddsmakers for a scrumptious 66.8 percent cover rate playing against these teams the last two years.
The bottom line to doing this kind of research is for lack of a better term, will improve your bottom line. Let?s face it, the idea of sports betting should be to win, not just to have action. You can play rock-paper-scissors if you want betting action. Sports betting is about finding edges that turn losing weeks into winners and good weeks into memorable ones with superior information.
Look to profit from numbers like these and create some of your own. I know you are determined to win this season, because you paid for this book and are reading this article. Good Luck.
For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it?s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.
This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you?ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.
I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.
The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.
One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.
Our study went back thru the last four seasons and here is what we learned about T.O.P. both good and bad.
The most noticeable point is that every team was for the most part a running team. Stating the obvious, it is easiest to control the clock when running the pigskin because there is no stoppage of time. Of the 20 teams that finished in the Top 5 of T.O.P., only two had losing records (Oakland 2007 and Minnesota 2006), and that was predicated on poor quarterback play, which forced those teams to run the ball. Even the 2007 New England Patriots, who were 16-0 during the regular season, possessed the ball the second most time during that season. Most will remember the short passing game and prolific scoring offense controlled expertly by quarterback Tom Brady; however what was lost in all of New England success was an above average running game that totaled 1,849 yards, good for 13th overall.
What we see in the above chart is controlling the clock leads to wins and spread covers. Last season, Baltimore and the New York Giants were tremendous in working the clock and covered 75 percent of their contests. The uninformed naysayer will point to these teams had leads and just ran out the clock in the fourth quarter to create time difference. To this I say ?ridiculous?. The Ravens and G-Men are two teams without question committed to running the ball all four quarters and just don?t build advantage late in game.
One aspect of detractors that never made sense to me was those who complained about rushing attempts that milked the clock to ice games. Just because a team has a lead in the fourth quarter and is running the ball does not automatically mean they win the game and cover the spread. They have to be skillful and more talented on that day to win the game and in all likelihood ran the ball throughout the course of the game, which helped lead to victory.
Running the ball means controlling the line of scrimmage. You hear coaches preach it all the time, ?Move the chains?. This deflates a defense and if they are being manhandled, it?s tough to lineup up in stance and have your backside whipped time after time. Nearly as bad is the defensive back who becomes bored facing opponents running game and falls asleep on third and two, as his receiver runs five-yard comeback route for a first down to keep the time moving, when he foolishly played 10 yards off the receiver.
Overall, these teams were healthy 183-130-7 against the spread, for winning percentage of 58.4 percent. To put that number into perspective, this would mean dime players picked up $4,000 following these teams.
The complete opposite perspective is teams that have more than their fair share of three and outs, putting the defense in peril, being overworked. In this chart below, only two teams were .500 or better in the last four years. The 2005 Miami squad was 9-7, but had losing spread record at 7-9. The four season?s total results have these 20 teams playing bad football with 96-224 record, at 41.7 percentage. These teams faired a little better versus the oddsmakers at 141-174-5 ATS, however that mostly due to Buffalo and Tennessee in 2006, when both teams had a number of late rallies to win or nearly win contests for covers.
If an offense can?t stay on the field or the defense can?t get off it, these teams are bound to lose on a more continual basis and profits are waiting to be taken.
Profit with total points scored, really
Another profitable nugget found comes from the simplest means of playing football, scoring points. How is this for stating the obvious, if you outscore the opposing team, you win the game and most likely cover the spread. If you don?t score enough points, you lose and probably don?t cover the spread. Pretty revolutionary material, even for John Madden.
That?s how it works sometimes, we all try so hard to find unique systems, we overlook what is in plain sight and staring us in the face in every newspaper or website we visit. As you can see below, the profits are right there to be taken. Consider the worst year was 2006 at 45-34-1 ATS, with a very respectable 56.9 percentage. 2007 was a superior season at 50-29-1 ATS, 63.2 percent, with an exceptional collection of teams that was 66-14 overall. Last year?s grouping made a nice profit at 58.9 percent, but take away the Giants and they were below .500 for straight up record. Best guess is this is more of anomaly and normalcy will return this season. Collectively since 2005, these squads are186-126-9 ATS, for a sweet 59.4 percent ?show me the money? record.
It?s not hard to determine, if you can?t score you can win, unless you have a Top 5 defense and chances are they will be worn out before the year?s end trying to keep foes out of the end zone with few scoring contributions. Here the team scoring the least amount of points were 135-177-8 ATS, covering just 43.2 percent of the time.
Defense builds bankrolls also
In last year?s ****** Edge Football Annual, editor Steve Makinen proved the value of following the stat, yards per pass attempt. Steve has been a long time believer in this particular statistic, believing that throwing the ball is tantamount to a NFL team?s success. He validated his point, showing teams covered the spread 58 percent from 2003-07.
If throwing the ball efficiently is this important in the pro game, there has to be a cause and effect for defending the pass of similar proportion. I carried out the theme in much the same fashion as other studies in this article and was somewhat surprised by the calculated results.
Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been two of the very best defensive teams over the last six or seven years and were in the Top 5 of fewest yards allowed per pass three times in the last four years. The combination of having debilitating pass rush along with defensive backs that can close on receivers and make big hits gives the Steelers and Ravens edge few teams can match.
Last season, these were the best two squads in football in allowing the fewest yards in this category and headed a group that was very profitable at 49-30-1, 62 percent.
This ended up being the high water mark in our research, which left me a trifle disappointed. The year 2007 was the biggest culprit for lack of betting success, with a very unimpressive 41-36-1 ATS mark. The four year period yielded a 178-136-6 ATS record, for a decent 56.6 percent.
Upon further exploration, I came across numbers that one can really sink their teeth into.
The worst teams against the yards per pass gave a much poorer showing and delivered the kind of profits we?re seeking.
What we learn here is valuable information that can be applied relatively early in the season and profited from all season long. Checking out the list of teams, all for the most part had a common denominator, they played mostly zone defense in the defensive backfield. Why is this important? With the exception of teams Tony Dungy coached that played Cover 2 nearly all the time, playing zone defense is designed to cover up weakness. If the cornerbacks lack man coverage skills, the zone defense can work, as long as team is able to generate a pass rush.
Where this breaks down is if a defense does not apply pressure to the quarterback, there is more than enough passing lanes to find an open receiver. The Indianapolis Colts never have had exceptional corners, with their best attributes being closing speed and tackling. The teams on this list seldom had enough talent in the secondary and offered a spotty pass rush.
This made them vulnerable to any competent quarterback with a degree of accuracy. These clubs for the most part were baneful and picked apart, conceding an unusual amount of big plays, which ultimately led to points.
Football shows how fickle fate can be with Baltimore ranked 28th in this category in 2007, blended in with three Top 5 performances. As you might recall, the Ravens secondary was ravaged with injuries that season and a few key members up front were either out or walking wounded. Baltimore was forced to play far more zone than accustomed to and was torched with 5-11 record, with just three covers of the spread.
Adding up the numbers, we arrive at mouth-watering 191-123-6 ATS mark, 60.1 percent, playing against these teams who futilely try and stop the forward pass. No way to know at this juncture, but the trend line is extremely positive for this stat, with the bottom five 39-121 straight and 52-105-3 against the oddsmakers for a scrumptious 66.8 percent cover rate playing against these teams the last two years.
The bottom line to doing this kind of research is for lack of a better term, will improve your bottom line. Let?s face it, the idea of sports betting should be to win, not just to have action. You can play rock-paper-scissors if you want betting action. Sports betting is about finding edges that turn losing weeks into winners and good weeks into memorable ones with superior information.
Look to profit from numbers like these and create some of your own. I know you are determined to win this season, because you paid for this book and are reading this article. Good Luck.
