Monday Madness

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Monday Madness

The craziness continues inside Major League Baseball, as we approach the second week of August. The AL East race is slowly getting away from Boston's grasp, while the Tigers are trying to sneak away with the Central title. The Monday card supplies bettors with plenty of entertaining matchups, including Detroit heading to Beantown.

Tigers at Red Sox (7:05 PM EST)

The Red Sox are coming off a humbling weekend, after getting swept in a four-game series by the Yankees in the Bronx, while losing valuable ground in the division. The Tigers, meanwhile, are fresh off taking two of three from the Twins.

Edwin Jackson (8-5, 2.62 ERA) has been an 'under' machine all season, hitting it in 15 of 20 starts. Jackson's road numbers are decent, owning an ERA of 2.47, despite Detroit going 4-8 in the righty's 12 road outings. The 'under' has been nailed in 10 of 12 away contests, mainly due to a lack of run support, as the Tigers average a shade over three runs a game in this span.



Jackson didn't face the Red Sox when Boston swept Detroit earlier this season at Comerica Park. As a member of the Rays last season, Tampa Bay lost three of Jackson's four starts against Boston, while Jackson is 0-5 his last five starts at Fenway.

Brad Penny (7-6, 5.20 ERA) has not been especially sharp of late, allowing 18 earned runs in his last four starts. The Red Sox have cashed for Penny in his home outings, winning seven of his 11 starts at Fenway. Penny has been listed as a huge favorite in his last few home outings, but the Sox are 4-0 this season as home 'chalk' when Penny is $1.30 favorite or less.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed the Red Sox as a $1.15 home favorite, with the total listed at 9.

Blue Jays at Yankees (7:05 PM EST)

The Yankees look to continue their ownership of the Blue Jays this season, already taking seven of nine meetings. The last time these teams met up at Rogers Centre, the Yankees topped Toronto, 8-4, less than a week ago. The two starting pitchers in that contest take the mound tonight in the Bronx.

Sergio Mitre (1-0, 7.50 ERA) has been less than stellar in his four starts with the Yankees. The former Cubs and Marlins right-hander has not compiled a quality start yet in pinstripes, while allowing at least seven hits and three earned runs in each outing. Against Toronto, Mitre gave up eight hits and three earned runs in 4.1 innings of work, but the Yanks still came out on top.

Mark Rzepczynski (1-3, 3.74 ERA) has strung together several decent outings despite picking up only one victory. The Toronto lefty has seen the 'under' hit in four of six starts, with the lone 'over' getting nailed in the loss to New York. Rzepczynski's two best starts have come against the Red Sox and Rays, allowing two earned runs in 12 innings.

The Yankees are a healthy $1.80 home 'chalk,' with the total listed at 10 ?, according to LVSC.

Astros at Marlins (7:05 PM EST)

It's amazing how things turn around in the span of a couple of days. Take the Florida Marlins, for example. The Fish were swept at Washington in a three-game set, possibly sealing their fate in the NL Wild Card and NL East races. However, the Marlins rebounded with a three-game sweep of the East-leading Phillies, slicing a seven-game deficit to a four-game deficit in a matter of 72 hours.

The Astros, meanwhile, are coming off an important home series victory over the Brewers. Houston sends out former Marlin Brian Moehler (7-7, 5.31 ERA) to the mound. Moehler's road numbers are impressive this season, winning five of six decisions, while compiling an ERA of 3.91 away from Minute Maid Park. Moehler has struggled lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, all Houston losses. This will be Moehler's first career start against his old team.

Rick VandenHurk (1-1, 4.29 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the season, a 5-4 setback at Washington. The Marlins righty allowed seven hits and five earned runs in only four innings of work. It didn't help that the Nats tagged VandenHurk for three home runs. Prior to that loss, VandenHurk put together three nice starts in a row, allowing five earned runs in 17 innings.

This is the first meeting between these two teams this season, as the Marlins went 4-2 against the Astros in 2008, including a three-game September sweep in South Florida.

LVSC has installed the Marlins as a $1.60 home favorite, while the total is set 9.

 

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MLB Total Talk

MLB Total Talk

MLB Total Talk

Parks and Lineup Changes playing a Factor

Offense has been down a bit the last few seasons in major league baseball. There are many theories about this, from teams shoring up the relief staff as many games are decided in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings, to the decrease in steroids. Another factor that's always worth considering is the ballpark. It's no secret that the dimensions of parks play a role not only in how a team plays but in how a team is constructed.

When wagering on baseball totals, it's important to look at the park, the defense and the pitching staffs, both starting and relief pitching. Current teams with large, pitcher-friendly parks are Safeco in Seattle, Dodger Stadium in LA, Comerica in Detroit, Petco in San Diego and the Oakland Coliseum.

Let?s take a closer look at the A?s. They are roughly a .500 team at home but terrible on the road, which is why they are in last place. This is not a very good offense, so they are only able to compete when the pitching staff keeps them close in games. This is more likely at home, as Oakland is a huge park. 21-year-old starter Brett Anderson has a 3.76 ERA at home, but that balloons to 4.55 on the road. He?s given up only 3 homers at home, but 11 on the road! Another starter, Trevor Cahill, has 5 wins at home, but only one win away where he allows over a run per game more.



Oakland had a road trip at the end of July where they went to hitter-friendly parks in New York and Boston, going 6-1-1 over the total. They are on a road trip right now to Kansas City and Baltimore and the first two games of the trip went over the total. Professional sports bettors carefully look at parks trends like this, in addition to offensive production.

Of course, things can change during the course of a season, too, and it?s important for handicappers to evaluate adjustments to see if it may influence sides and totals. The Red Sox, for instance, are in a second half slump because of injuries, mainly to the offense. 3B Mike Lowell recently came back but is not 100%, RF Jason Bay has a hamstring problem and SS Jed Lowrie (wrist) is out. They just got shut out in back to back games at Yankee Stadium ? one of them in 15 innings! This is nothing new, however, as Boston is on a 17-10-1 run under the total, aided also by a dynamite bullpen, the best in baseball.

Detroit has had struggles on offense all season and it doesn?t help that it plays in a big park. The Twins were forced to go with starter Carl Pavano this weekend, but no matter, as he shut out the Tigers at Comerica Park on Saturday. That is part of a 23-12-1 run under the total by Detroit.

Of greater concern than the offense this week for the Tigers would be starters Justin Verlander and Armando Galarraga. Verlander (12-6) is an ace, but took the loss to Minnesota, five days removed from his last start against the Orioles in which he gave up five runs in the first inning. Manager Jim Leyland says he is also concerned about Armando Galarraga (6-10). He's had winless streaks of 10 and five starts this season. In his last two starts, he's allowed 11 earned runs on 19 hits in 10 2/3 innings.

Kansas City surprised with its improved pitching in the first half of the season, but are the kids beginning to wear out? The Royals are on an 8-2-1 run over the total, giving up a lot of runs while losing most of them. Rookie catcher Brayan Pe?a got his second straight game as their cleanup hitter this weekend. The pitching staff has been hurt with the absence of Gil Meche, who could be back soon. He made his second rehab start Saturday for Class AAA Omaha last week.

The Kings of the Hill with respect to totals goes to the LA Angels, who have had roster changes all season because of injuries (and even tragedy). They haven?t suffered on offense because players like Howie Kendrick stepped up when Torri Hunter and Vlad Guerrero were on the shelf. Angel base runners have advanced from first base to third base on a single 89 times, tops in the big leagues. The team also had a major league-high .305 batting average with runners in scoring position. The Angels' offense is one of the best in baseball, on a 15-2-1 run over the total!

It?s the Angels' pitching that is a concern again. Starter Joe Saunders is on the 15-day disabled list for tightness in his left shoulder. Saunders had started the season 5-1 but has gone 4-6 since then. And after he lasted only 1 2/3 innings Friday night against the Texas Rangers, in which he gave up five runs, the Angels decided to put him on the disabled list. Betting totals can be just as profitable as sides in baseball, and knowing the parks, injuries and daily lineup changes can help a smart bettor turn a profit.

 

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Run-Line Review

Run-Line Review

Run-Line Review

Taking the run-line in baseball may seem like an easy proposition. Lay the 1 ? and hope your team wins by at least two runs. The payout is usually nice, unless the favorite is listed at $2.00 or more, in which case you could win back close to even money. Regardless, with less than two months left in the season, there are plenty of teams that have routinely covered the run-line, while other teams merely have the odds higher than a coin flip to win by at least two.

Is there a correlation with teams in playoff contention to cover run-lines as oppose to teams playing for nothing winning close games? Not exactly. Out of the top ten run-line teams in baseball, six are in the midst of the playoff race. On the flip side, six contending clubs are in the bottom of the league in run-line victories.





Let's take a look at who is worth taking a shot at on the run-line the final seven weeks of the season, and the teams to stay away from in this spot.

Good

Pirates

The Pirates have completely packed it in, trading away multiple pieces of their offense for younger talent. While Pittsburgh sits in last place in the NL Central, the Bucs have been the best run-line play of any team in baseball this season, winning 82.2% of their games by at least two runs. The Pirates will unlikely be listed as a favorite of $1.40 the rest of the season, unless Zach Duke pitches against a sub-.500 team. That means if Pittsburgh is a short favorite and you feel good about backing the Bucs, there will be a nice payout on the run-line.


Rockies

The Rockies have been playing some of the best baseball in the game since June, getting themselves right at the top of the NL Wild Card race. Since June 1, Colorado has won 41 games, 20 at home and 21 on the road. The run-line numbers are staggering, as the Rockies have won 65% (13/20) of their home games by at least two runs. Meanwhile, Colorado has claimed a whooping 90% (19/21) of its road games by more than two runs. The benefit of backing the Rockies on the road in the run-line spot is getting the guaranteed ninth at-bat, as opposed to playing at home. Colorado plays only seven road series the rest of the season, but heads to Florida and Washington starting August 14, giving bettors several opportunities to back the Rockies on the run-line.

Royals

The worst team in the American League is the best team in the Junior Circuit on the run-line, winning just nine games by one run this season. Since May 24, the Royals have won 11 home games, with each of those victories coming by at least two runs. It's a tough proposition to back the Royals with a lot of confidence the rest of the way, especially with Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke was great the first two months of the season, but if you took +1 ? with Kansas City's opponents when Greinke is favored, you would be 11-1 the last 12 games in this spot.

Best Run-Line Teams
Team Total Wins 2+ Run Wins % of 2+ Run Wins
Pirates 45 37 82.2
Rockies 61 49 80.3
Royals 43 34 79.0
Cardinals 62 49 79.0
Giants 61 48 78.6
Yankees 69 54 78.0
A's 49 38 77.5
Phillies 61 54 77.0
Orioles 46 35 76.1
Twins 54 41 75.9


Bad

Mariners

Seattle has found a way to stay alive in the playoff race, even with less than two months remaining. The M's have done much of their damage with close victories, capturing 31 of 58 (53.3%) games by one run. Six of Seattle's last nine victories have come by a single run, while just two of the wins have come as a favorite.

Dodgers

Interestingly, the Dodgers are on the bad side due to plenty of early season close victories. Out of Los Angeles' last 15 victories, 12 have come by at least two runs, dating back to mid-July. Ten of the 12 wins came in the role as a favorite, providing some quality payouts on the run-line.

Worst Run-Line Teams 
Team Total Wins 2+ Run Wins % of 2+ Run Wins 
Mariners 58 31 53.4 
D-Backs 50 33 66.0 
Indians 48 32 66.7 
Marlins 58 39 67.2 
Braves 58 39 67.2 
Padres 47 32 68.1 
Dodgers 67 46 68.5 
Astros 55 38 69.1 
Angels 65 45 69.2 
Tigers 59 41 69.4

 

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Totals Report

Totals Report

Totals Report

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TOTALS REPORT
Team Total Home Away Streak
Arizona Diamondbacks 53 - 54 33 - 23 20 - 31 Over-1
Atlanta Braves 49 - 59 21 - 29 28 - 30 Over-1
Baltimore Orioles 54 - 52 23 - 29 31 - 23 Over-1
Boston Red Sox 44 - 57 20 - 27 24 - 30 Under-3
Chicago Cubs 47 - 58 25 - 27 22 - 31 Over-2
Chicago White Sox 45 - 66 22 - 39 23 - 27 Over-2
Cincinnati Reds 44 - 60 23 - 27 21 - 33 Under-2
Cleveland Indians 59 - 49 22 - 31 37 - 18 Over-2
Colorado Rockies 51 - 56 27 - 22 24 - 34 Over-2
Detroit Tigers 44 - 63 25 - 28 19 - 35 Over-4
Florida Marlins 55 - 50 30 - 22 25 - 28 Over-2
Houston Astros 47 - 57 24 - 30 23 - 27 Under-1
Kansas City Royals 50 - 54 33 - 24 17 - 30 Over-7
Los Angeles Angels 63 - 40 32 - 20 31 - 20 Under-2
Los Angeles Dodgers 56 - 51 28 - 27 28 - 24 Over-1
Milwaukee Brewers 56 - 50 25 - 26 31 - 24 Under-1
Minnesota Twins 51 - 55 31 - 21 20 - 34 Over-3
New York Mets 50 - 55 25 - 28 25 - 27 Under-2
New York Yankees 53 - 51 26 - 26 27 - 25 Under-3
Oakland Athletics 56 - 54 26 - 28 30 - 26 Over-5
Philadelphia Phillies 50 - 53 25 - 30 25 - 23 Over-2
Pittsburgh Pirates 47 - 59 22 - 30 25 - 29 Over-1
San Diego Padres 54 - 56 26 - 31 28 - 25 Under-2
San Francisco Giants 48 - 56 25 - 27 23 - 29 Under-2
Seattle Mariners 47 - 63 24 - 27 23 - 36 Over-6
St. Louis Cardinals 47 - 57 18 - 34 29 - 23 Over-1
Tampa Bay Rays 49 - 58 26 - 25 23 - 33 Over-4
Texas Rangers 38 - 68 18 - 37 20 - 31 Under-2
Toronto Blue Jays 52 - 54 25 - 28 27 - 26 Over-1
Washington Nationals 55 - 53 27 - 31 28 - 22 Over-1

 

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MLB UMPIRE REPORT

MLB UMPIRE REPORT

MLB UMPIRE REPORT
UMPIRE AVG RUNS GAMES UNDER OVER K/GAME BB/GAME K/BB
ADRIAN JOHNSON 9.11 18 6 9 12.4 7.5 1.7
ALFONSO MARQUEZ 10.00 2 1 1 14.5 7.5 1.9
ANDY FLETCHER 7.33 18 13 3 14.6 8.1 1.8
ANGEL CAMPOS 8.46 13 8 5 15.8 6.2 2.6
ANGEL HERNANDEZ 9.26 19 9 9 13.1 7.4 1.8
BILL HOHN 8.13 16 9 6 13.4 6.1 2.2
BILL MILLER 8.79 19 12 6 15.7 5.9 2.7
BILL WELKE 10.00 18 9 8 14.7 5.9 2.5
BOB DAVIDSON 8.94 16 7 8 14.2 7.0 2.0
BRIAN GORMAN 7.33 18 12 4 14.2 6.4 2.2
BRIAN KNIGHT 8.68 19 11 7 13.8 7.1 2.0
BRIAN O'NORA 7.22 18 11 6 14.1 5.9 2.4
BRIAN RUNGE 8.24 17 11 4 13.1 6.2 2.1
BRUCE DRECKMAN 9.07 15 6 7 12.1 7.7 1.6
BUCKNOR 9.50 18 8 10 13.4 7.6 1.8
CASEY MOSER 4.00 2 2 0 12.5 4.0 3.1
CHAD FAIRCHILD 9.00 17 10 7 14.4 6.6 2.2
CHARLIE RELIFORD 7.71 17 11 6 13.9 5.1 2.7
CHRIS GUCCIONE 8.47 19 10 8 14.7 7.1 2.1
CHRIS TILLER 6.00 2 2 0 11.0 7.0 1.6
CHUCK MERIWETHER 9.94 18 9 9 13.6 6.9 2.0
DALE SCOTT 9.89 19 7 11 13.6 5.9 2.3
DAMIEN BEAL 9.50 2 1 1 14.5 5.0 2.9
DAN BELLINO 4.67 3 3 0 16.7 3.3 5.0
DAN IASSOGNA 10.41 17 8 9 12.9 6.9 1.9
DANA DEMUTH 9.94 17 8 8 13.5 6.8 2.0
DELFIN COLON 7.33 3 2 0 12.0 4.7 2.6
DERRYL COUSINS 8.65 17 9 7 12.4 7.8 1.6
DOUG EDDINGS 9.39 18 8 10 14.7 6.2 2.4
ED HICKOX 14.33 3 2 1 10.7 10.0 1.1
ED MONTAGUE 11.80 5 1 4 14.4 6.8 2.1
ED RAPUANO 9.05 19 8 9 13.7 7.5 1.8
ERIC COOPER 10.95 20 6 14 14.7 6.8 2.2
FIELDIN CULBRETH 7.88 17 11 5 13.9 7.5 1.9
GARY CEDERSTROM 9.79 14 8 6 13.6 6.3 2.2
GARY DARLING 8.15 13 8 5 13.5 5.9 2.3
GERRY DAVIS 10.26 19 8 8 13.0 7.7 1.7
GREG GIBSON 10.18 11 5 6 10.6 6.4 1.7
HUNTER WENDELSTEDT 9.42 19 9 10 13.9 7.3 1.9
JAMES HOYE 9.48 21 13 7 12.1 7.4 1.6
JEFF KELLOGG 7.89 18 11 7 13.1 8.4 1.6
JEFF NELSON 10.69 16 6 9 12.5 7.2 1.7
JERRY CRAWFORD 11.57 14 6 7 14.9 9.1 1.6
JERRY LAYNE 8.29 17 9 7 14.4 6.8 2.1
JERRY MEALS 10.11 18 6 11 14.8 7.3 2.0
JIM JOYCE 8.72 18 11 7 13.9 8.6 1.6
JIM REYNOLDS 9.25 12 4 8 14.3 7.4 1.9
JIM WOLF 10.00 18 7 10 13.1 6.9 1.9
JOE WEST 9.00 18 9 8 13.7 7.6 1.8
JOHN HIRSCHBECK 8.63 19 13 6 13.8 6.4 2.2
KERWIN DANLEY 8.50 4 2 2 13.5 6.5 2.1
KEVIN CAUSEY 3.00 1 1 0 12.0 5.0 2.4
LANCE BARKSDALE 9.65 17 7 9 11.8 7.4 1.6
LARRY VANOVER 8.53 17 8 8 12.3 6.6 1.9
LAZ DIAZ 10.35 17 6 10 12.9 6.3 2.1
MARK CARLSON 9.06 16 9 7 13.8 7.3 1.9
MARK WEGNER 9.41 17 9 8 13.8 6.6 2.1
MARTY FOSTER 9.11 18 9 8 13.4 7.0 1.9
MARVIN HUDSON 8.16 19 9 10 15.6 7.2 2.2
MIKE DIMURO 9.29 17 8 9 14.6 6.7 2.2
MIKE ESTABROOK 7.86 7 4 3 13.0 4.9 2.7
MIKE EVERITT 9.78 18 8 10 12.6 7.4 1.7
MIKE MUCHLINSKI 8.00 2 1 0 14.5 8.5 1.7
MIKE REILLY 9.44 18 9 9 15.0 7.9 1.9
MIKE WINTERS 10.56 16 7 9 12.6 7.0 1.8
PAUL EMMEL 9.00 16 9 6 12.8 6.6 1.9
PAUL NAUERT 9.41 17 8 9 15.0 6.4 2.4
PAUL SCHRIEBER 10.00 17 6 7 14.2 8.6 1.7
PHIL CUZZI 9.45 20 11 8 14.9 7.2 2.1
RANDY MARSH 10.50 18 6 11 11.9 8.3 1.4
REYBURN 6.33 3 2 1 10.7 2.3 4.6
ROB DRAKE 9.42 19 9 10 14.5 6.1 2.4
RON KULPA 8.89 9 6 3 14.8 6.6 2.3
SAM HOLBROOK 8.29 17 10 7 14.2 7.1 2.0
SCOTT BARRY 7.79 19 14 5 12.3 6.7 1.8
TED BARRETT 8.67 18 11 6 12.8 6.6 1.9
TIM MCCLELLAND 12.05 20 4 12 13.4 8.3 1.6
TIM TIMMONS 11.00 19 7 10 14.1 7.5 1.9
TIM TSCHIDA 10.53 19 8 10 13.7 8.3 1.7
TIM WELKE 10.47 19 9 10 13.6 7.3 1.9
TODD TICHENOR 8.13 16 10 6 12.8 7.2 1.8
TOM HALLION 8.68 19 8 10 12.8 6.7 1.9
TONY RANDAZZO 8.55 20 11 8 12.4 5.3 2.4
WALLY BELL 9.11 19 10 8 14.0 7.5 1.9