Wednesday Wagers

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Wednesday Wagers

The Rockies are coming ? again. Just like its improbable run to the 2007 World Series, Colorado is on fire when it matters most, producing a late-season surge that has its backers cashing tickets galore as the team closes in on a playoff berth for just the third time in franchise history.

Jim Tracy?s squad club trailed the Dodgers by 15 ? games in the National League West back in early June. Now the Rockies are within just two games after capturing a 5-4 win in last night?s series opener at Coors Field. They lead the Giants by four games in the wild-card hunt.

In the American League, Boston beat the White Sox thanks to a Jason Bay homer that untied the game in the eighth inning. The victory kept Terry Francona?s team 1 ? games in front of Texas in the AL wild-card chase.

Boston and Colorado will both continue their pivotal series tonight, so let?s take a close look at these contests.





**White Sox at Red Sox**

--Most books are listing Boston (72-53) as a minus-145 favorite with a total of either 9 ? shaded to the ?over? (minus-120) or 10 tilted to the ?under? for a minus-120 price. Gamblers can take the Red Sox on the run line (minus 1 ? runs) for a plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).

--This game marks the return of Tim Wakefield (11-3, 4.31 ERA) from the disabled list. The veteran knuckleballer was enjoying one of his finest seasons, including his first selection to the All-Star Game. However, Wakefield has been out since July 8 with strains to his lower back, left hamstring and left calf. He?s replacing the struggling Brad Penny in the BoSox rotation.

--Wakefield is 7-0 with a 3.92 ERA in nine home starts at Fenway Park this season. He is 7-11 with a 5.11 lifetime ERA against the White Sox.

--Chicago (63-63) fell to 27-33 on the road with last night?s loss. The defeat dropped the White Sox to four games back of AL-Central-leading Detroit pending the Tigers? late-night game against the Angels.

--Gavin Floyd (10-8, 3.98) will get the starting nod for Ozzie Guillen?s squad in this spot. Floyd is 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA in 13 road assignments in 2009. He is 2-0 despite a 5.74 ERA in a pair of career starts against Boston.

--The ?under? is 62-53 over the Red Sox, 29-26 in their home games. The ?over? had hit in four straight Boston games until last night?s contest barely stayed ?under? the 9 ?-run tally.

--The ?under? has cashed in six straight games for the White Sox, improving to 75-49 overall and 31-26 in their road assignments.

--Boston is 41-20 at home following last night?s win. The Yankees are still six games up on the Sox in the AL East.

**Dodgers at Rockies**

--Troy Tulowitzki?s ninth-inning single with the bases loaded lifted Colorado (72-54) into the win column in walk-off fashion for the second consecutive night. The victory improved the Rockies to an amazing 54-26 under Jim Tracy, who replaced Clint Hurdle when the team trailed the NL West leaders by double digits. With a win tonight, Tracy?s troops will be just one game back of Joe Torre?s team.

--Most spots are listing the Dodgers as minus-135 favorites with a total of 10 ?over? (minus-115). L.A. is plus-115 on the run line.

--Los Angeles (74-52) will turn to Randy Wolf (8-6, 3.44) in hopes of ending a two-game slide. Wolf has been sick lately, going 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA his last three times out. The veteran southpaw is 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA at home this season. Wolf is 4-2 with a 4.36 lifetime ERA against Colorado.

--Josh Fogg (0-1, 2.25) has made 193 starts in 239 career appearances in the majors. In 2009, the 32-year-old right-hander has made all 20 of his appearances from out of the bullpen. That will change tonight when Fogg gets the starting nod in favor of Aaron Cook, who went on the disabled list Saturday with a sore shoulder. The former Florida Gator is 3-5 with a 4.35 career ERA against the Dodgers.

--Might Torre try to get Juan Pierre in the lineup tonight? He feasts on Fogg with a .459 average in 37 career at-bats. Manny Ramirez is 2-for-6 with no homers against Fogg.

--The Dodgers fell to 34-27 on the road last night, while the Rockies improved to 36-24 at home.

--The Rockies are barely above .500 when facing lefties, compiling a 21-19 ledger.

--L.A. has seen the ?under? cash in four straight games to improve to 61-59 overall. The ?over? is 30-29 in the Dodgers? road outings.

--The ?under? is 62-57 overall for the Rockies, but they have watched the ?over? go 30-25 in its home games.



--Florida RHP Josh Johnson owns a 6-0 record and 2.15 career ERA against tonight?s foe, the Mets. New Yorks?s Mike Pelphrey is 1-5 with a 5.36 lifetime ERA against the Marlins, who are heavy favorites in the minus-240 range. Jeff Francoeur, who it hitting .305 since joining the Mets is ?out,? while the Fish?s Nick Johnson is ?out? and could be bound for the disabled list.

--I think we can bury the Cubs after Tuesday?s 15-6 loss to the Nationals with Carlos Zambrano on the mound. They are now eight games back in the wild card. Zambrano gave up eight runs in 4 1/3 innings.

--Pittsburgh looks attractive as a home underdog Wednesday. The Pirates are 34-28 at home after rallying to deliver Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge his ninth blown save in Tuesday?s 6-4 win. The Pirates, plus-160 ?dogs at most spots, will throw Paul Maholm, who is 3-1 in five career starts against the Phillies.

--Atlanta suffered a costly 2-1 defeat to the lowly Padres in extras last night. Although the Braves have been surging in recent weeks, the loss dropped the team to 5 ? games back in the wild-card hunt. Chipper Jones, who went 0-for-4 Tuesday, has been frustrated with his recent performance, as evidenced by these comments in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

 

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LVSC Rankings - Week 20

LVSC Rankings - Week 20

LVSC Rankings - Week 20

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has released its newest baseball power rankings, and there is very little turnover atop the board. The Yankees remain in the top spot once again, following a 7-3 road trip at Seattle, Oakland, and Boston. Since August 2, the Bombers are 16-4, including a 6-1 mark against the Red Sox. The Yanks battle the Rangers for three games in the Bronx, followed by a three-game home set with the White Sox this weekend.

The Phillies were tied for second with the Angels last week, but now own sole possession of the number two spot. Philadelphia is coming off a solid 6-1 week, after sweeping the Diamondbacks and grabbing three of four from the Mets. The Phillies continue to do plenty of damage away from home, winning eight of their past ten away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Angels slipped one spot to third, despite a 6-4 East Coast swing to Baltimore, Cleveland, and Toronto. The Halos lost the opener of a three-game set against AL Central-leading Detroit on Monday, but the Angels still remain five games ahead of the Rangers inside the AL West.





The Red Sox remain in the fourth position, after dropping two of three to the Yankees. Boston and Texas (#10) continue to fight it out for the AL Wild Card lead, even though the two teams are finished playing each other in the regular season. The Red Sox continue their four-game set with the White Sox at Fenway following Monday's 12-8 victory.

The Rockies moved up one spot from 10th to 9th, as Colorado owns the NL Wild Card lead. Jim Tracy's club took three of four from the Giants over the weekend, and now sits three games behind the Dodgers inside the NL West. The Rockies host Los Angeles in a crucial series that can seal Colorado's hold on the Wild Card, or even give them a shot at first in the West.

Not much changed in the middle of the rankings, but the sore thumb at the bottom of the list is the unfortunate New York Mets. A team with so much promise has had injuries all season, and now have lost ace Johan Santana for the year with an elbow issue. The Mets actually improved from 28th to 27th, but are still behind last-place teams like the Royals (#25) and Nationals (#26).

Now here's a closer look at the Week 20 LVSC Power Rankings.

LVSC MLB Power Rankings - Week 20
Rank Team (Record) Previous Rank
1 N.Y. Yankees (78-46) 1
2 Philadelphia (72-50) 2
3 L.A. Angels (74-48) 2
4 Boston (70-53) 4
5 St. Louis (72-54) 5
6 Tampa Bay (67-56) 7
7 L.A. Dodgers (74-51) 6
8 Atlanta (66-58) 8
9 Colorado (70-54) 10
10 Detroit (65-58) 9
10 Texas (69-54) 11
12 San Francisco (67-57) 14
13 Chicago Cubs (62-60) 11
14 Florida (65-59) 13
15 Chicago White Sox (63-61) 15
16 Minnesota (61-63) 16
17 Toronto (57-65) 17
18 Milwaukee (60-63) 18
19 Seattle (63-61) 20
19 Cleveland (54-69) 21
21 Houston (61-63) 19
22 Oakland (55-68) 22
23 Baltimore (51-73) 24
24 Arizona (55-70) 23
25 Kansas City (47-76) 25
26 Washington (44-80) 27
27 N.Y. Mets (57-68) 28
28 Pittsburgh (51-71) 29
29 Cincinnati (52-71) 26
30 San Diego (52-74) 30

 

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Cy Young Contenders

Cy Young Contenders

Cy Young Contenders

Cliff Lee has posted simply incredible numbers since joining the Phillies, picking up his fifth win in five starts on Monday and featuring an ERA of 0.68. Much like CC Sabathia did last season there has been talk of Lee being considered for the Cy Young award despite splitting time in both leagues. Sabathia had a much larger sample in the NL last season and he did finish fifth in the voting, but Lee even has acknowledged it would be ridiculous to consider him over pitchers that have posted impressive numbers all season long in the league. The conversation about Lee would be made moot much more easily if a pitcher had stepped out to deliver a truly remarkable Cy Young season, but in both leagues the voting will lack a clear-cut standout choice unless something special happens in the final weeks.



In the National League, Tim Lincecum remains the favorite to win the award this season, which would make for impressive back-to-back wins for the 25-year old. Lincecum has certainly had a fine season as he leads baseball in strikeouts and owns the third best ERA in the NL at 2.43. Stat-gurus rightfully disvalue the win as a key measure of a pitcher but in reality the voters will not, so Lincecum with just 12 wins may get passed up as he has not won in any of his past four outings and the Giants appear to be fading. Adding to the dilemma for voters is that Lincecum?s teammate Matt Cain currently has an identical 12-4 record and also a 2.43 ERA. Lincecum greatly overshadows Cain in strikeouts but Cain has had a remarkable season as well but he may also lack the number of wins to seriously contend for the award.




The emerging candidate in the race has to come from St. Louis, as the Cardinals continue to pull away in the NL Central. Voters would also have a bit of dilemma as well as two Cardinals pitchers are deserving of mention. Chris Carpenter, a past Cy Young winner would have to be the leader with a 14-3 record and a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Carpenter has made just 21 starts however and his counting statistics like strikeouts will not measure favorably with many of the other contenders. Adam Wainwright has also delivered a fantastic season for the Cardinals and in the past six weeks he has pitched as well as anyone in baseball, perhaps outside of Lee. Wainwright also has 14 wins but his seven losses will make it tough for him to compete with Carpenter though he has made five more starts and also features a strong 2.61 ERA and 41 more strikeouts. There will likely be little mention for him as a candidate but St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin deserves some notice as the most dominant reliever in the NL, featuring a 1.11 ERA and going 30 for 32 in save opportunities.



Dan Haren owns a great 2.74 ERA and impressive strikeout-to-walk numbers, but playing for a struggling Arizona team leave him with a 12-8 record and likely out of contention barring an incredible finish. Dodger pitchers Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw were relevant in this race for much of the first half of the season, but like their team, both have faded in recent weeks. Wandy Rodriguez also has enjoyed a great season and is competitive with all the contenders in the key categories, but playing for a Houston team out of playoff race will count him out. Other than Franklin, the other relievers in contention lack the eye-popping numbers that would be needed for a relief pitcher to jump into the mix.



The pitchers with chance to make a move into contention for this award will likely hinge on the playoff push of their respective teams. Florida ace Josh Johnson owns a 12-3 record with a 2.99 ERA and if he pitches brilliantly down the stretch and can lead the Marlins into a wild card spot or at least commendably close playing for the low-payroll Marlins he should warrant serious consideration. The Colorado Rockies are a team with serious momentum right now and if the Rockies make the playoffs and particularly if they unseat Los Angeles in the AL West, starters Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez could both move into that picture. Both would sit a solid step back in terms of raw numbers at this point in the year and likely would have trouble surpassing some of the more established pitchers. An extreme dark horse candidate would be Javier Vazquez of the Braves who has the requisite strikeouts and a great ERA but has just ten wins and would need the Braves to make a serious September push.



In the American League, the challenge for voters will be even more difficult. At the All-Star Break, two candidates stood out, Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay. Neither likely has the credentials to contend for the award at this point as both have struggled in the second half. Greinke still leads the AL in ERA at 2.44 but he is now 11-8 after starting 8-1 and the Royals have fallen back to the familiar depths of the AL Central despite a promising start and the chances of Greinke improving his numbers are bleak. After constant trade rumors failed to materialize, Halladay has failed to live up to the great results that created his high demand and too-steep price tag. Halladay still owns strong numbers but not likely good enough to win the votes especially on what will be a losing team in Toronto.



Voters will be left to choose from the pitchers that will likely lead the league in wins playing on playoff teams, but featuring less than elite ERAs or choosing a pitcher on a decent team that has slightly better overall numbers. CC Sabathia leads baseball with 15 wins despite most considering it to be somewhat of a disappointing year relative to his last two seasons. Sabathia?s ERA is currently 3.59 which would be considered high for Cy Young consideration but he conceivably could lead the lead by several wins for the team with the best record in baseball. Josh Beckett will be in a similar situation and a couple of clutch performances that leads Boston into the playoffs could build some traction for his campaign but his 3.65 ERA is also a shade too high. Sabathia edged out Beckett for the award in 2007, despite Beckett getting the last laugh in the playoffs and the storyline between the two pitchers could continue with this vote and the potential playoff results.



Detroit has two starters that should be in the mix should the Tigers hold on to the AL Central lead. Neither has truly standout numbers, but Edwin Jackson is third in the AL for ERA and has been a reliable starter for Detroit even though he has just ten wins. Justin Verlander likely has a greater chance of getting votes as a more established name, plus 14 wins and the AL lead in strikeouts. Verlander has been hit hard in several games however and owns a much higher ERA than Jackson and several other AL starters.



The long shot candidates lack the past success and familiarity that Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay, and Verlander would benefit from. Felix Hernandez has the numbers in every key category to warrant attention, but he will have a hard time keeping up in wins and he will be hurt by the lack of visibility playing in Seattle. Scott Feldman and Jeff Niemann have great records pitching for playoff contenders, but neither comes close to an elite level in strikeouts nor ERA. Mark Buehrle has the perfect game stamp on his resume, but he likely will not get enough wins either and his overall numbers are not in the same league as some of the other candidates.



Francisco Rodriguez was able to steal some votes last year with his spectacular season for an Angel team with a great record, but even an all-time single season saves record was not enough to win the award. It would be tough for Rodriguez and Angel fans to swallow but the New York media could make a push for Mariano Rivera that would have a decent chance of success in a year with no standout candidate. Rivera is having a season similar to many of his other great years but playing for a first place team after years of success could garner some career achievement votes for this year?s Cy Young award. Rivera?s 1-2 record does not look Cy worthy, but his ERA is 1.87 and he has converted 36 of 37 saves while posting a 6.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

 

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Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter

Thriving ? Cleveland Indians



If you take a look at the overall pitching and bullpen numbers for the Indians this year, it might leave you scratching your head as to why I have the Tribe in this position. However, the fact is, this pitching staff, in particular the bullpen, has gotten much better as of late. The relievers are pitching better than they have all year long which directly correlates to Cleveland?s 20-15 mark since the All Star Break.



For the season, the Indian bullpen has an ERA of 4.82 which is the fourth worst in all of baseball. However, their .255 opponent batting average and 1.8 strikeout to walk ratio indicates they have pitched better than that lofty ERA might indicate. Over the last 10 games, this relief corps has an ERA of just 2.95. The pitching staff as a whole has allowed five or fewer runs in 14 of their last 17 games which is an improvement for a staff that has an ERA of over 5.00 on the season.



Many of the Cleveland relievers have been improving their stock as of late. Here are a few. Closer Kerry Wood has registered a save in seven of his last eight attempts. His ERA since the All Star break is 3.38 which is a drastic improvement over the first half of the season. Chris Perez, who was acquired in the Mark DeRosa deal, gave up six runs in his first three outings. However, since then he has gone 16 straight scoreless innings and dropped his ERA under 3.00. Joe Smith has an ERA of just 3.34 on the year, however since the All Star break that number is just 1.42. Finally, left handed specialist Tony Sipp has allowed only one earned run in 11 August appearances.



Improved starting pitching has also helped the bullpen numbers improve. This team lost Cliff Lee to the Phillies, however Fausto Carmon had pitched very well since returning from the minors in late July. Justin Masterson was acquired from Boston in the Victor Martinez deal and he has shown promise. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers have been fairly solid starters.



This team can score runs. Their 631 runs place them 7th in the league. They also hit nearly .270 as a team. With the pitching improving lately, especially the bullpen, this team can be a spoiler in the A.L. Central race.





Struggling ? San Francisco Giants



In direct contrast to the Indians, the Giants have some of the best bullpen numbers on the season. However, as of late, they have not pitched up to those impressive seasonal numbers. That is partly attributed to AT&T Park which surrenders the second lowest OPS of any ballpark and just 7.85 runs per game.



On Saturday, the Giants bullpen blew a huge game with Colorado allowing eight runs in just three innings of work. Things didn?t get any better for the relievers on Monday as they allowed four runs in the 14th inning, blowing a three run lead and losing to the Rockies. That was the Giants fourth loss for the bullpen in San Francisco?s last nine games. All of those losses have been on the road which lends to the ballpark theory. Monday?s bullpen effort, five earned runs in 7.1 innings, pushed their ERA to near 4.50 over the last 11 games.



Due to poor offensive numbers, this team has been carried for much of the season by their starting pitching and bullpen. Now it looks as if the starters might be beginning to fade which will continue to negatively affect the bullpen. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been Cy Young contenders all season long. However, Lincecum has now not won a start since August 1st and Cain in winless in his last five outings. With Zito, Sanchez and Martinez being up and down, the strain on the bullpen looks like it will continue.



Closer Brian Wilson has 30 saves on the year, however he has blown two of his last five attempts. Veteran Bobby Howry now has a 1-6 record out of the pen after losing another game last week. Even Justin Miller, who has put up fantastic numbers for much of the year is slowing down. On Saturday he allowed four runs while getting only two outs. Monday was worse for Wilson when he gave up three earned runs and failed to retire a batter.



San Fran has a very tough schedule down the stretch. They still face the Dodgers and Rockies six more times. They face off against the Cubs four times and the Brewers and Phillies three more times each. The bullpen will have immense pressure applied down the stretch and I?m not so sure they have the depth or talent to hold up. Especially of the starters continue to struggle.