SEC - Can Anyone Upset Florida?

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SEC - Can Anyone Upset Florida?


The Florida Gators are the heavy 2-1 favorites to win their second straight BCS Championship. No team is even close, as Oklahoma is the second choice at 5-1. Florida is also the overwhelming favorite to capture the SEC Title at 1-3 odds, while Alabama is 3-1 and Ole Miss and LSU are co-third choices at 5-1.

Urban Meyer's club has won two of the last three National Championships but the team was not able to run the table either year. The Gators fell at Auburn 27-17 three years ago and last season lost at home to Ole Miss, 31-30. They appear to be the dominant team once again, but is 2-1 too low a number to take heading into September?

The conference as a whole finished above .500 (both SU and ATS) in lined, out- of-conference games, as well as contests involving the other five BSC leagues. The ACC was the only other conference to accomplish that feat. The one main difference between the two is that the SEC abused its competition in postseason play with a 6-2 SU mark, while the ACC went 4-6.

The SEC has owned the National Championship the last three seasons. This year will bring number four, but who will hold the trophy?

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

SEC EAST

6) VANDERBILT - The Commodores not only snapped a 25-year bowl drought, they were victorious in a postseason game for the first time since 1955, and are 17-5 as road underdogs the last five years.

Offense - After finishing 117th nationally in total offense, the team will switch to a hurry-up, no-huddle attack. It's unlikely the move will help since the club is extremely thin at WR without Justin Wheeler, Terence Jeffers- Harris and Sean Walker. In addition, starting TB Jared Hawkins averaged only 35 ypg over his final eight contests.

Defense - Vanderbilt allowed 19.6 ppg, its lowest mark in over 10 years. The Commodores were also 15th nationally vs. the pass but half of the starting secondary, including D.J. Moore (12 picks the last two years) will not be back in Nashville. If the new hurry-up offense falls flat, the defense will be on the field more than necessary so expect a rise in points allowed.

Outlook - Even though the Commodores won seven games, they were outgained by an average margin of 320-256, and five of their victories came by a TD or less. They won't be as lucky this year with four overall wins and just one in league play.

5) KENTUCKY - The Wildcats have gone bowling three straight seasons despite a 9-15 record vs. the SEC. They are 6-10 ATS in league play, but 6-2 ATS out of conference the last two years.

Offense - Quarterback Mike Hartline was much-maligned (even benched for two games) last year despite posting six wins in his nine starts. He's been super in fall camp so expect much improved numbers this season from the junior signal-caller. However, nagging injuries have limited the other skill-position players, so the unit could struggle in September.

Defense - Kentucky gave up 21.5 ppg (lowest average in 15 years) and 332 ypg (best total since '89). Unfortunately, the defense ranked 10th in SEC play in scoring and 11th in yards allowed. Only four of the top 12 tacklers return in '09, so it will be difficult to match last season's numbers.

Outlook - The Wildcats bowl streak will end with a 4-8 overall record and a 1-7 mark in conference play.

4) SOUTH CAROLINA - The Gamecocks lost their final three games, including a 31-10 defeat at the hands of Iowa in the Outback Bowl. They are 7-3 ATS as home favorites the last three years but just 2-5 ATS in non-conference play the last two.

Offense - It's fair to say South Carolina labored last season coming in 112th place in rushing and 96th in scoring. Only four FBS teams allowed more sacks, and the team's 27 interceptions thrown ranked dead last in the nation. Increased offensive production should come with a new batch of talented backs and receivers, and QB Stephen Garcia can only get better in his sophomore season.

Defense - This unit kept the team afloat for most of last year until the final three games (118 points allowed). Only two of the top five tacklers return after the "D" brought back four of the top five each of the last two years. Moreover, the Gamecocks will be without three CBs who combined for 74 career starts.

Outlook - South Carolina could be an underdog in eight of its 11 lined games but will somehow find a way to garner five straight-up wins with three coming in league play.

3) TENNESSEE - Lane Kiffin takes over for Phillip Fulmer after Tennessee won just five games for the second time in four years. The Volunteers are 8-3 ATS the last two years as home favorites after covering just three of their previous 14 in that category.

Offense - Nothing went right for the offense last year as the Vols finished 110th nationally in scoring and 115th in yards per game. Those numbers should improve in '09 but the WR position has been hit hard with injuries as Austin Rogers is out for the year, and both Gerald Jones and Denarius Moore could miss the first quarter of the season.

Defense - The "D" was an entirely different story as the unit tied Alabama for third nationally in total defense. Regrettably, eight of the top 13 tacklers say goodbye to Knoxville, taking with them 45 tackles for loss. The secondary, widely considered one of the best in the country, allowed opposing league QBs to nail 56% of their throws, good for only seventh-best in SEC play.

Outlook - Don't expect much improvement over last year's campaign, especially since the team is putting a lot of faith in its freshmen. Look for a 7-5 season with only three SEC victories.

2) GEORGIA - The Bulldogs came into last season ranked number one in the AP poll but ended 13th after a 10-3 season. Amazingly, they are 0-6-1 ATS as road favorites in their last seven conference games.

Offense - Even with Knowshon Moreno in the backfield, the Bulldogs ran the ball just 52% of the time, their lowest percentage in years. Consequently, they scored over 30 points in just five of the 13 games. A lot of their struggles had to do with an o-line that returned only 24 career starts. This season, that unit is now the strength of the offense, so look for better overall numbers even without Moreno and QB Matthew Stafford.

Defense - Georgia allowed over 20 ppg for the first time this decade while finishing ninth in league play in scoring and eighth in total defense. Injuries hindered the group all season long especially on the defensive line where DT Jeff Owens was lost for the year in week one and six different DEs recorded starts throughout the year. This year's "D" will be particularly hungry in order to prove last season's performance was a fluke.

Outlook - Not many folks are predicting much from Georgia after last year's disappointing season but a win over the Gators on Halloween could propel them to a 12-0 campaign. In the end, look for 11 wins, seven in the SEC, and don't be shy about wagering a pretty penny on the Bulldogs at 45-1 to win the National Championship.

1) FLORIDA - The Gators broke school records for most points scored (611) and rushing touchdowns (42) and are 19-5 ATS the last two years.

Offense - Not only were the 611 points a team record, it was the highest output by any team in SEC history. Seven starters return but there are a couple of question marks, perhaps the only two for the entire team. Both starting tackles are gone, along with the top two receivers who combined for over 1,200 yards. In addition, backup QB John Brantley will see a lot of action behind Tim Tebow so there is a chance the Gators might not cover all the games in which they're favored this season.

Defense - All 11 starters (and the top 21 tacklers) return from a unit that finished fourth nationally in scoring and ninth in total defense. The defense recorded 26 interceptions (another school record) and ranked third in the country in red zone efficiency. It's interesting to note that only three returning starters are seniors, so unless a ton of defenders apply for the NFL draft, this unit could be just as dominating in 2010.

Outlook - Complacency could become a factor this season but it's unlikely with Urban Meyer at the helm. Look for a 12-0 mark and a second straight National Championship.

SEC WEST

6) MISSISSIPPI STATE - Former Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen takes over as head coach after the Bulldogs lost eight games in '08. They are 0-6 ATS as home favorites the last four years.

Offense - Only four teams in the country averaged fewer points per game than Mississippi State. With Mullen now in charge, production should increase but don't expect a massive turnaround since the club is relying on a ton of freshmen and JC transfers in the receiving game. In addition, top RB Anthony Dixon isn't guaranteed to start due to an arrest earlier this summer, and the o-line has been beset by injuries this month.

Defense - The Bulldogs ranked eighth in scoring and ninth in total defense in league play last year after finishing fifth in both categories two seasons ago. The club welcomes back '07 leading tackler Jamar Chaney but six of last year's top seven tacklers will not be returning to Starkville. Furthermore, only one member of the secondary has started more than two career games.

Outlook - The Bulldogs have seven outright underdog victories over the last three years but this year's club should match last season's four wins, with two coming in the SEC.

5) ARKANSAS - The Razorbacks finished in a three-way tie for last place in the West but still won two games over ranked opponents. The last time they ended a season below the .500 mark ATS in conference play was way back in 1999.

Offense - Arkansas was one of only 11 clubs in the country to feature a 1,000- yard rusher and average over 250 passing yards per game. This year's offense could be even stronger with Ryan Mallett taking over for Casey Dick at quarterback.

Defense - The Hogs had one of their worst defensive seasons in history allowing 31 ppg and 375 ypg - good for last place in the SEC in both categories. They came into last year without their top six tacklers from '07, but the top 10 tacklers all return in '09. Improvement is expected even though starting CB Isaac Madison is out for the season with an injured knee.

Outlook - The Razorbacks will return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus with a 7-5 mark and three SEC victories.

4) ALABAMA - The Crimson Tide won 12 games last year. However, the last four times the team has garnered double-digit win seasons, it finished below .500 the following campaign with a combined 17-31 record. Alabama covered its last three games in '08 when favored by three touchdowns or more.

Offense - Last year's offense was a veteran-laden squad and it showed as the club topped the 30-ppg mark for the first time since 1989. Nevertheless, the unit still ranked 63rd nationally in total offense and now moves forward with only four returning starters. Greg McElroy, who takes over at QB, has completed 16 of 20 career attempts, but 15 of those passes came against Western Kentucky and Western Carolina. The o-line also loses three key starters.

Defense - It will be up to the defense to carry the offense early on and that shouldn't be a problem with 13 of the top 16 tacklers returning to Tuscaloosa. Still, the "D" allowed seven red zone TDs in the final two games after giving up only seven in the first 12. Additionally, the entire defense lost just two starts to injury the entire season, and with a rebuilt o-line and an inexperienced QB, the unit will be on the field a lot more in '09.

Outlook - It's doubtful this squad will fall apart as the other 'Bama teams did the year following a double-digit win season. However, the club won't win 10 games either. Look for eight victories with a .500 SEC mark.

3) AUBURN - The Tigers failed to go bowling for the first time this decade with a 5-7 record and six straight losses to end the season. They went 2-9 ATS, and are now 6-12 ATS as home favorites the last three years.

Offense - Auburn scored only 19 offensive TDs last year while finishing last nationally inside the red zone. Expect massive improvement this season with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn taking over the play-calling. Quarterback Chris Todd is healthy and the ground game will erupt after last season's meager 94 ypg and 2.6 ypc SEC totals.

Defense - Even with the 5-7 campaign, the defense did its part finishing 14th in the country allowing just 18 ppg. On the other hand, the run defense gave up over 4.0 ypc for the first time since 1995. Enter new defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who in his lone season at Minnesota, helped cut the Gophers ypc average from 5.7 down to 4.1.

Outlook - Auburn will fly under the radar early on but will attract a lot of attention in the end with an 8-4 season and five conference wins, including a victory over Alabama.

2) LSU - The Tigers had their lowest regular season winning percentage (58%) of the decade last season and their worst ATS record (3-9) since 1990. Surprisingly, LSU is 5-18-2 ATS in SEC games over the last three years.

Offense - The Tigers switched starting quarterbacks for the final two games and the offense exploded for 68 points with Jordan Jefferson under center. There's no doubt the "O" will be even better in '09 with Jarrett Lee (and his 16 interceptions) on the sidelines.

Defense - LSU allowed its highest ppg total (24 ppg) in 10 years and the "D" struggled even more in SEC play giving up 32 ppg, good for last place in the league. The young secondary was lit up week after week allowing over 200 passing yards in seven of the eight conference games. It will be interesting to see if the group improves in '09 since the front seven loses its most experienced players.

Outlook - LSU is 19-1 in home games under the lights the last four years, and every single contest at Tiger Stadium this year will be played at night. Look for nine wins and a 5-3 conference record.

1) OLE MISS - Last year was a breakout season for the Rebels, highlighted by a 13-point victory over Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. They are 15-8-1 ATS in conference play the last three years but 0-4 ATS as road favorites the last five.

Offense - Jevan Snead made a giant splash in Oxford as he ended the year with 2,762 passing yards while posting a 9-2 TD/INT ratio over the final three games. The Rebels ranked second in the SEC in scoring (32 ppg) and averaged 476 ypg over the final four contests. The ground game was second-best in the league behind Florida and the top five rushers all return. The only problem area is at left tackle where an underclassman must protect Snead's blind side after Michael Oher manned the position for four years.

Defense - Ole Miss allowed only 17 third-quarter points over the final 11 games, showing tremendous halftime adjustments. It was a total team effort as only two players recorded more than 52 tackles. The Rebels do lose four of the top five leaders in that department but three of those players recorded just 26% of their total tackles over the final six games. In fact, the top eight tacklers from '08 all recorded lower totals last season and the "D" still allowed only 19 ppg after giving up 28.5 in '07.

Outlook - The Rebels are primed for a fantastic season at 10-2, with a 6-2 conference record and a trip to the SEC Championship Game.

 

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Big 12 Must Shake Bowl Season Blues

Big 12 Must Shake Bowl Season Blues

Big 12 Must Shake Bowl Season Blues

Last season was a dominant one for the Big 12, with 32 straight-up victories in 45 non-conference lined games. More importantly to bettors, the 12 teams finished 27-18 against the spread for a 60% winning percentage, and they have now covered 54 of their last 93 out-of- conference matchups after going 21-24 ATS back in '06.

Winning and covering regular season games has not been much of a problem for the Big 12. However, last year's bowl season was a completely different story. The league went just 2-5 ATS and only one of the five favorites (Kansas) was able to cover. This has been a developing pattern as the conference is now 8-15 ATS in 23 bowl games the last three years.

In order for the Big 12 to be crowned as the best conference in the country, it first must prove itself against the SEC, and losing nine of the last 12 bowl games to the number one conference (including both games last year) is not going to get the job done.

The league has a few viable candidates to improve its postseason stock but which clubs will be in position to accomplish the difficult task? Let's take a closer look at the contenders.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

BIG 12 SOUTH

6) TEXAS A&M - The Aggies defense allowed 37 ppg and the team sputtered to a 4-8 season in Mike Sherman's first year as head coach. They are 2-9 ATS off a SU win the last two years while posting a 2-6 ATS record in non-conference play.

Offense - Texas A&M shifted to a pro-style offense passing the ball 53% of the time (compared to just 40% in '07) and the club averaged a field goal more per game in league play. Look for another increase in production with 10 returning starters.

Defense - The Aggies finished 114th nationally in scoring and total defense last season. They posted similar rankings in '03, and the following season the defense allowed 14 fewer ppg. Don't expect lightning to strike twice.

Outlook - There was a severe lack of chemistry in Sherman's first season in College Station. That should change in year two. On the other hand, this is still a very young team so don't expect more than six wins (three in the Big 12) despite an easier schedule.

5) TEXAS TECH - The Red Raiders grabbed their first 11-win season since 1973, but lost two of their last three, barely getting past Baylor at home for the lone victory. They are 3-0 ATS as a home underdog the last three years.

Offense - Some might expect the offense to suffer without Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree but it won't happen. Tyler Potts has been in Lubbock since '06 waiting for his chance and the passing game will be just as solid in '09. In addition, RB Baron Batch could return quicker than expected after injuring his elbow last week.

Defense - Texas Tech has allowed 28 ppg or less in each of the last five years. However, the numbers have risen in each of the last four years so there is a chance the Red Raiders could post their worst total since allowing 34 ppg in '03, especially with glaring holes at defensive end and safety.

Outlook - This team will not come close to matching last year's success. Still, eight wins (4-4 in league play) will send Texas Tech to its 10th straight bowl game.

4) BAYLOR - The Bears have finished last or next-to-last in conference play every year since the Big 12 was formed. This could be the year the skid ends. They are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite the last two years.

Offense - Robert Griffin burst on the scene with 28 TDs (15 passing) and only three interceptions to lead Baylor to a 10-point scoring improvement (28 ppg) from the year before. That figure will jump even higher in '09 with seven other returning starters.

Defense - Not only did the Bears give up 12 fewer points per game in league play from the previous year (the biggest turnaround in the conference), they allowed just 3.8 yards per carry, good for third-best behind Texas and Missouri. Those numbers will improve even more with the addition of former Penn State defensive tackle Phil Taylor. This could be Baylor's finest defensive unit in over a decade.

Outlook - It's awfully difficult moving up the ladder in the best division in football, but Baylor is on the verge of accomplishing that feat. An 8-4 record with four league victories is well within reach.

3) OKLAHOMA STATE - The Cowboys won nine games (five in the Big 12) for the first time since '03, but in order to move up in the standings, they must first learn how to knock off Texas and Oklahoma - 0-12 SU the last six years.

Offense - The Cowboys ranked first in the league in rushing last year (246 ypg) and even though they finished 10th in passing (242 ypg), they were number one in yards per attempt (9.7). The only concern is finding a receiver to complement Dez Bryant.

Defense - In the pass-happy Big 12 South, Oklahoma State sports the least talented secondary in their division and maybe the entire league. The unit, which allowed 324 passing yards and a 68% completion rate over the last six games of '08, moves forward with just one returning starter.

Outlook - The '09 team appears better on paper than last year's 9-4 club, but not as golden as the media is making them out to be. Look for eight wins, five in conference play.

2) TEXAS - If the Longhorns hadn't allowed Texas Tech to score with one second left, they would have played for the BCS Championship. Instead, they barely got past Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Texas is 13-5 ATS in non-conference play the last four years.

Offense - Keep the ball in Colt McCoy's hands. That's the mantra being bandied about in fall camp. Whether it's throwing (3,859 yards and 34 TDs) or running (leading rusher and 11 TDs), McCoy is easily the focal point of the offense. The Longhorns return nine starters but there are a couple of minor concerns. Unsung RB Chris Ogbonnaya, who led the team with 5.0 ypc and was by far the team's best receiver out of the backfield, is now in the NFL, and the o-line allowed three sacks or more in five of the last nine games,

Defense - Only seven teams in the country forced more turnovers than Texas did last year. Not only that, the 'Horns lose three of their top four leaders in sacks and tackles for loss, and four of the top five in QB pressures along with their interception leader. Last season's club finished third nationally against the run and led the country in sacks but this year's "D" will not be quite as effective.

Outlook - The Longhorns are the consensus number-two team in the country but they will have a hard time reaching the National Championship Game with two losses, both in league play.

1) OKLAHOMA - The Sooners failed to win the BCS Championship with a 24-14 loss to Florida. They finished the season with a 10-3 ATS record and are now 13-4-1 ATS as a home favorite over the last three years.

Offense - One of the main reasons why almost everyone is selecting Texas over Oklahoma is the fact the Sooners lost four o-line starters. Don't forget they were in a similar bind in '06 and the unit allowed just 16 sacks while the running game improved from 4.0 ypc in '05 to 4.5 ypc. This is one of the most potent offenses in the country with arguably the number one quarterback, as well as a pair of 1,000-yard rushers.

Defense - Oklahoma gave up 24.5 ppg, its least efficient defense since '97. On the other hand, the "D" held Texas Tech, Missouri and Florida to 20 points below each club's season average. The Sooners actually allowed fewer yards per play than Texas did last year. This could be their finest defense in years.

Outlook - Look for Oklahoma to run the table and secure a spot in the BCS Championship Game for the second straight season.

BIG 12 NORTH

6) KANSAS STATE - Bill Snyder returns as head coach after a three-year hiatus, but it will be tough to resurrect a program that has had just one winning season since '03. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS as a home underdog but 5-1 as a road "dog" the last two years.

Offense - Kansas State averaged 35 ppg but finished ninth in Big 12 play in total offense. Even Iowa State averaged more yards per game despite scoring a TD less per contest. One has to wonder how effective this year's offense will be without Josh Freeman (the school's all-time leading passer), especially since none of the four QB candidates has been able to move ahead of the pack and it's already mid-August.

Defense - The Wildcats allowed 42 ppg and 533 ypg in league action last year but there is some hope for a substantial turnaround. Coming into last year, only two players had started more than 10 career games. This year the top six tacklers return, plus the club adds Jeffrey Fitzgerald who amassed 73 tackles (with seven sacks) two years ago for Virginia.

Outlook - One of these years, Kansas State will have both a solid offense and defense in the same season. Unfortunately, '09 will not be one of them as the 'Cats go 5-7 (2-6).

5) IOWA STATE - Former Auburn and Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads takes over the head coaching reins from Gene Chizik after the Cyclones finished the year on a 10-game losing streak. They also were 2-5 ATS in their final seven games.

Offense - The offense averaged 406 ypg in Big 12 play after going for just 315 the year before. This season, 26 lettermen return after only nine came back in '08. The addition of offensive coordinator Tom Herman, who comes over from Rice, should propel the "O" over the 30-ppg mark for the first time since 1976.

Defense - Not only has the defense given up at least 30 ppg each of the last three seasons, the secondary has allowed opposing league QBs to nail over 70% of their passes. The numbers will decrease with the addition of Rhoads and new defensive coordinator Wally Burnham, along with the return of five of the top seven tacklers. Iowa State could have one of the most improved defenses in the country, especially vs. the pass.

Outlook - This should be the Cyclones' best team since the 7-5 season in '05. Look for the club to snap its 17 game road-losing skid and finish 5-7 with two Big 12 victories.

4) MISSOURI - This year will test Gary Pinkel's recruiting prowess as the Tigers had a Big 12-best six players drafted into the NFL, and that doesn't even include quarterback Chase Daniel. They are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite the last two years.

Offense - Blaine Gabbert takes over for Chase Daniel after throwing only 13 passes last year, eight coming against Southeast Missouri (only three completions for 27 yards). The top three receiving leaders are gone as well so look for the offensive production to fall by almost 10 points per game from last year's 42-ppg mark.

Defense - This unit returned 10 of its top 11 tacklers last season and still allowed four more points and 33 more yards per game than the year before. Opposing QBs lit up the defense for 287 ypg as the Tigers ranked dead last in the conference vs. the pass. Only one of the top four tacklers returns, so the "D" will allow 30 ppg for the first time since '01.

Outlook - Missouri plummets from 10 wins down to four with only two coming inside the Big 12.

3) KANSAS - Last year's tougher schedule took its toll on Kansas as the team dropped to 4-4 in Big 12 play after going 7-1 in '07. In addition, the Jayhawks were outscored by an average margin of 37-31 after pounding their league opponents by a 40-21 count the previous year. They are 14-3 ATS off a SU win and 7-1 ATS in out-of-conference play the last two years.

Offense - Todd Reesing returns for his senior season, and his top three receivers also come back to Lawrence. The Jayhawks finished eighth nationally in passing but just 83rd in rushing as Jake Sharp saw his ypc average drop a full yard from '07. Don't expect much improvement since the o-line is a work in progress after losing three starters.

Defense - Kansas has returned four of its top five tacklers each of the last two years, but this season only one of the top four will be in a Jayhawk uniform. Not a good sign considering the team finished ninth in league play in scoring and total defense in '08.

Outlook - Look for another 7-5 regular season with three conference victories.

2) COLORADO - The Buffaloes, ravaged by injuries, lost seven of their final nine games and missed the postseason for the second time in the last three years. They are 4-10 ATS as a road underdog over the last four seasons.

Offense - Colorado finished 100th nationally (and last in the Big 12) in scoring at 20 ppg. However, the last time the club returned eight starters after bringing back five the year before, the scoring output increased by a full nine points.

Defense - The Buffaloes must replace seven starters but 25 lettermen return, including three of the top four tacklers. Nevertheless, the defense ranked ninth in the conference vs. the run and all three down linemen must be replaced.

Outlook - Colorado is one of the few Big 12 clubs that still runs a pro-style offense. With a powerful o-line and a solid core of RBs, the Buffaloes will improve to 6-6, 4-4 in league play.

1) NEBRASKA - The Cornhuskers returned to their winning ways with nine victories in Bo Pelini's first season in Lincoln. They are 4-8 ATS as a home favorite and 3-10 ATS off a SU win the last two years.

Offense - Nebraska topped all Big 12 North teams last year in total offense in league play, even finishing ahead of Texas and Oklahoma State. The Cornhuskers also finished second in the division behind Missouri in scoring. It will be tough to duplicate those rankings with the loss of QB Joe Ganz and his top two receivers. The key to the offense will be the running game, one that averaged 199 ypg the final seven games of the year.

Defense - There's a lot to like about a defense that allowed 28.5 ppg after giving up 38 in '07. In addition, the unit finished second in Big 12 play in total defense, and seven of the 11 starters return in '09. However, Nebraska ranked ninth in yards per play allowed as the "D" was on the field for only 458 conference plays. To put that in perspective, nine of the other 11 clubs had to contend with at least 560 plays. If this year's inexperienced offense cannot sustain its drives the way last year's offense did, the defense could crumble.

Outlook - The Cornhuskers have their share of holes but not as many as the other five Big 12 North clubs. Look for another eight-win campaign with five conference victories.

 

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Big Ten - A Postseason Nightmare

Big Ten - A Postseason Nightmare

Big Ten - A Postseason Nightmare

The Big Ten has won 51 of its last 70 non-conference regular season FBS games, but when it comes to the postseason, the league has taken it on the chin. Only one league club (Iowa) was able to win a bowl game last year, and since '04, when the league went 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in the postseason, the Big Ten is 9-20 SU and 12-17 ATS.

Last season was also disastrous for those wagering on the 11 teams in out-of- conference play, with a 15-26 ATS mark (37%) the penalty for betting on those clubs. The winning percentage against other BCS squads was the same 37%, with a 7-12 ATS record. More important to the league itself was its horrible showing against the other top five conferences. The Big Ten won only six of 19 games SU, with only Iowa and Northwestern finishing above .500.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

11) NORTHWESTERN - The Wildcats won nine games for the first time since 1996. Bet against them after a victory, since they are 7-22 ATS of a SU win the last five years.

Offense - It will be a rebuilding season without the starting quarterback, top two running backs and top three receivers. Mike Kafka will start at QB, but the senior has a lifetime 3-8 TD/INT ratio in 145 attempts. The o-line returns four starters, but the same scenario occurred in '06 and the team had its lowest rushing totals in seven years.

Defense - The Wildcats not only limited opponents to just 20 ppg, they allowed 50 fewer rushing yards per game (in Big Ten play) compared to '07. Unfortunately, four of the top six tacklers from the front seven will not be back. In addition, star DE Corey Wootton is coming off reconstructive knee surgery.

Outlook - The media is calling Northwestern a Big Ten sleeper this year but the last time the club had a winning record, it won just four games the following season. The Wildcats should win five in '09 but only two will come in conference play.

10) PURDUE - The Boilermakers flopped to a four-win campaign, their worst record since 1996. They are 2-5 ATS as home underdogs the last three years.

Offense - Most experts feel this unit will fall completely flat without Curtis Painter, but the QB had a dismal senior season. Furthermore, the Boilermakers are loaded at RB, and the ground game will be prominently featured under new head coach Danny Hope.

Defense - Purdue ranked number one in the Big Ten against the pass primarily because they were last vs. the run. There is reason for optimism, as eight of the top 10 tacklers return after the club played last year without five of its top six.

Outlook - Penn State and Iowa are off the schedule (Purdue is 1-7 vs. those clubs the last four years) and the defense is the best it's been since '04. The Boilermakers match last year's marks at 4-8 and 2-6 in the Big Ten, with at least one huge upset along the way

9) INDIANA - The Hoosiers laid an egg with a 3-9 record after reaching the postseason for the first time in 14 years. They are 16-34 ATS as underdogs the last six years.

Offense - The Hoosiers will feature the pistol offense, which will help improve the running game behind their finest o-line in years. Ben Chappell is an unknown commodity at QB but his 6.54 yards per attempt eclipsed that of counterpart Kellen Lewis and wasn't that far behind the 6.89 mark Lewis had during the '07 bowl season.

Defense - Indiana finished last in the league in both scoring and total defense. Greg Middleton recorded just four sacks after leading the nation the year before, but Jammie Kirlew picked up the slack with 10.5. Both return this season, and if injuries don't sideline the DBs, look for the Hoosiers to have one of their finest defenses in years.

Outlook - Indiana improves three games to reach the .500 mark (2-6 in league play) and finishes above .500 ATS after last year's 2-9 record.

8) MICHIGAN - It was a trying season for Rich Rodriguez in his first year in Ann Arbor, as the Wolverines won only three games. They were 0-4 ATS in non- conference play (2-10 ATS overall) and are now 4-13 in that department over the last four years.

Offense - The offense was not expected to score much last season with only three returning starters, but the club did average 22 ppg in Big Ten play, only three points fewer than in '07. A lot of that had to do with a 70% red zone TD percentage, which topped the league. The offense will improve in the second year of the new system.

Defense - Michigan returned seven starters and still finished 10th in the Big Ten in scoring defense. This year five return but the unit loses seven of its top 12 tacklers. In addition, 41% of the lettermen will not be back compared to only 20% the year before.

Outlook - The team battles its way back to .500 at 6-6, with three Big Ten victories.

7) MICHIGAN STATE - The Spartans recorded back-to-back bowl trips for the first time in over 10 years. They are 4-1 ATS as road favorites the last two seasons.

Offense - Even with Javon Ringer at tailback, the offense averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, the school's lowest total since '03. Brian Hoyer had a disappointing senior season completing only 51% with a 9-9 TD/INT ratio, but MSU still ranked third in passing in Big Ten play. It's doubtful their replacements will improve the team's 25 ppg scoring total.

Defense - The Spartans were one of only five teams in the country that allowed more yards per game compared to '07 despite giving up fewer points. They finished first in the league in red zone defense but that was due to their out-of-conference heroics since they ranked next-to-last in Big Ten play. Ten of the top 13 tacklers return, so the "D" should improve.

Outlook - MSU was picked to finish third by the media but there are an awful lot of question marks heading into the season. Look for a 6-6 record with only three conference wins.

6) WISCONSIN - Even though the Badgers went bowling for the seventh straight time, they had their worst league record (3-5) since a 2-6 mark in '02. They are 5-11 ATS in conference play and 1-4 ATS as a road underdog the last two years.

Offense - The Badgers ran for 211 ypg last year, good for 14th-best in the country. John Clay will be the next great Wisconsin RB, but the o-line loses three longtime starters. The team was in a similar spot in '05 and the rushing numbers actually increased from the year before. Quarterbacks Dustin Sherer and Curt Phillips have a very underrated group of receivers so Wisconsin will post higher offensive numbers than last year.

Defense - The Badgers allowed 26.5 ppg in '08, their worst total since '01 and second worst since 1989. The last three times less than six starters returned, the Badgers allowed at least 4.0 rushing yards per carry. Only five come back this year. The secondary is one of the best in the conference but might suffer with only two starters back from the entire front seven.

Outlook - This season won't be as bad as last with four Big Ten victories and eight wins overall, but Wisconsin will be a major player in the conference race in 2010.

5) IOWA - The Hawkeyes won their final four games (including an upset of Penn State) to finish 9-4 after missing the postseason in '07. They are 63-44-2 ATS this decade.

Offense - Shonn Greene and his 1,850 rushing yards must be replaced, but Jewel Hampton, who injured his knee in July, should be the featured back after averaging 5.1 ypc last season. Ricky Stanzi was fourth in the conference with a 135 QB rating, and the o-line is the Big Ten's best.

Defense - Iowa loses its two DTs, who combined for over 450 career tackles. However, the top four tacklers all return and the secondary allowed only nine passing TDs with 23 interceptions. The Hawkeyes have not given up over 21 ppg since '00, but the "D" won't be as good as last year's unit that allowed just 13 ppg.

Outlook - This is still a very good team even with the losses, so look for nine wins overall and five in the Big Ten.

4) MINNESOTA - The Golden Gophers tied Rice for the largest regular season turnaround in the country, going from 1-11 to 7-5. They are 2-5 ATS as a home favorite but 6-2 as a road underdog the last two years.

Offense - The Gophers not only return 90% of their offensive lettermen, they are just one of two league teams to bring back their starting QB, leading rusher and receiver. Minnesota finished last in total offense (in Big Ten play) but there has been a tremendous increase in talent under head coach Tim Brewster and the pieces are in place for a major hike in production as the club switches from the spread to a power running game.

Defense - The team made huge strides on this side of the ball allowing only 25 ppg after giving up 37 the year before. Only Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa allowed fewer TDs in league play, and even though the Gophers finished eighth in the league inside the red zone, they were first vs. the rest of the Big Ten. Four of the top six tacklers return and former Wisconsin safety Kim Royston will help bring stability to the secondary.

Outlook - The schedule is difficult but this team will upset more than its share of unsuspecting teams. Eight wins, five in the Big Ten, is very possible.

3) OHIO STATE - The Buckeyes failed in their attempt at a third-straight trip to the BCS Championship game even with 19 starters from the year before. They still went 4-0 ATS as a road favorite and are now 14-3 in that area the last four years.

Offense - The '09 offense is not much different than the '07 version that lost its leading rusher and the top two receivers. The only disparity is that Terrelle Pryor returns, when Troy Smith did not. That team saw its scoring average drop only a field goal. With an o-line that sports four players with 10 or more starts, OSU will average four touchdowns per game.

Defense - The Buckeyes gave up 11 TDs in five non-conference games. They allowed only 10 in eight conference battles. Seven starters return, but there were some key losses. LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman were the club's top two tacklers each of the last three seasons, and Malcolm Jenkins was always matched up against the opposing team's top receiver. It's still a very good "D" but will allow its highest scoring total since surrendering 18 ppg back in '04.

Outlook - OSU disappoints the Columbus faithful with only nine wins, six in league play.

2) PENN STATE - The Nittany Lions won their second conference title in four years but fell to Southern Cal by two TDs in the Rose Bowl. They are 14-8 ATS as a home favorite since '05 and 10-3 ATS in non-conference play since '06.

Offense - The Lions topped the Big Ten in scoring and total offense, and finished sixth nationally in third-down percentage and red zone efficiency. This year's totals will not match those rankings with only five returning starters after nine came back last season. Joe Paterno has done an excellent job recruiting the last few years so don't expect a major decline, especially with QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster still in the fold.

Defense - This defense is somewhat similar to '06 when PSU returned only five of its top 13 tacklers and had to rebuild its entire secondary. The losses didn't affect the team's play that year as the defense allowed just 14 ppg and 287 ypg, besting both totals from the year before. This season, just four of the top 13 tacklers return, but the club does regain the services of LB Sean Lee, who missed last season with a knee injury.

Outlook - The Lions are 26-2 the last four years at home and they'll finish 8-0 this season. However, two road defeats will drop them to 10-2 overall and 6-2 in the Big Ten.

1) ILLINOIS - After winning nine games in '07, the Fighting Illini fell to 5-7. They are 6-1 ATS as a road underdog, but a dreadful 1-9 ATS in non- conference play the last three years. Surprisingly, they have not been on the plus side in turnover differential the last seven years.

Offense - This will be one scary offense and the best the Big Ten has to offer. Illinois was number one in league play last year in total offense but ranked fourth in scoring due to a 10th-place finish inside the red zone. With the addition of Jarred Fayson at WR and a healthy Arrelious Benn, look for the Illini to average five TDs per game.

Defense - Illinois allowed just 22 ppg in '07 (fifth in the Big Ten), but ended up in ninth-place in scoring last year giving up 27 ppg. Interestingly enough, the "D" actually allowed 27 fewer yards per game in '08, even with only one career start (prior to the season) amongst the two-deep roster of safeties. Look for better overall numbers in '09.

Outlook - Three years ago, the Illini (1-7 in the Big Ten) outgained their conference opponents by 24 ypg, and went 6-2 the following year. Last year, they were second in the Big Ten at +86 even though they finished 3-5. Look for another 6-2 record (10 wins overall) and a Big Ten championship with wins over both Penn State and Ohio State

 

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ACC Preview - Cashing Bets in ACC Play

ACC Preview - Cashing Bets in ACC Play

ACC Preview - Cashing Bets in ACC Play

Betting on college football underdogs has been an effective way to make money over the last two years, especially in conferences such as the Big East (33-23 ATS) and C-USA (55-40-2).

However, nothing compares to what the underdogs in the ACC have been able to accomplish.

Sure, some leagues have solid runs for a couple of seasons here and there, but the "dogs" in the ACC have been on a roll since way back in 2003, winning at a 60% clip with six consecutive seasons above the .500 mark.

The underdogs prevailed 20 of 35 times in '03 (57%) and they followed that up with a 26-18 record in '04 (59%). The numbers actually improved since the league set up divisional play in '05 with consecutive records of 28-20, 30-18, 30-19, topped off with last year's 28-20 mark.

The ACC also fared well out-of-conference in '08 with a 27-12 record both SU and ATS. More importantly, the league cashed in against other BCS teams at a 17-14 SU rate with a powerful 19-12 ATS mark, after failing more often than not the prior two years at 17-30 SU and 20-26 ATS.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

ATLANTIC DIVISION

6) MARYLAND - The Terrapins failed to go bowling the last two times they returned 10 or less starters, and only nine come back this season. They are 3-10 ATS as a double-digit favorite but 7-4 as a double-digit underdog (five outright wins) the last five years. Offense - Last season's club ranked ninth in the ACC at 22 ppg but that number fell to 16 in league play. Even though Da'Rel Scott rushed for 1,133 yards, the team ended up ninth in the conference in rushing vs. the ACC. The o-line is one of the most inexperienced in the country and the offense will be without last year's top three pass-catchers.

Defense - The Terrapins lose four of their top five tacklers and only one member of the front seven has started more than four career games. Maryland finished third in league play vs. the pass but ranked 11th in QB completion percentage while recording only 10 interceptions.

Outlook - The Terrapins return just 56% of their lettermen. Both lines are awfully young and it will take some time for the team to mesh. Maryland will be staying home this postseason with a 5-7 record, 2-6 in the conference.

5) BOSTON COLLEGE - Even without Matt Ryan, the Eagles reached the ACC title game for the second straight season. They are 0-8 ATS as road favorites the last three years, but 11-2 ATS as road underdogs since '03.

Offense - The QB position is up for grabs after the Eagles completed just four of 17 passes for 22 yards in the spring game. Enter 25-year-old David Shinskie, who spent the last six years playing minor league baseball and hasn't played football since 2002. If he's not the answer, the offense will struggle considering the ground game averaged just 3.2 ypc in nine ACC games.

Defense - Despite allowing 18 ppg overall, the Eagles finished 10th in league play giving up 25.5 ppg. Now they'll have to move forward without six of their top nine tacklers, and LB Mike McLaughlin won't be 100% when the season starts. They haven't allowed over 20 ppg since '03 so it's doubtful they'll fall apart even with the heavy losses.

Outlook - A third consecutive Atlantic Division championship will not come to fruition. Instead, the Eagles win just six games (three in the ACC) for the first time since '98.

4) NORTH CAROLINA STATE - The Wolfpack won their final four regular season games to reach the postseason for the first time since '05. They were the only team in the country to cover every single conference game and come out on top ATS in a bowl game.

Offense - Two years ago, NC State ranked 11th in league play in scoring at 18 ppg, but the club rebounded with a third-place finish at 26 ppg. Russell Wilson took control with a 17-1 TD/INT ratio but he still must improve locating secondary receivers. Most of the team's RBs and WRs return so look for another jump in scoring up to 30 ppg.

Defense - Not only is star LB Nate Irving doubtful after suffering massive injuries from an auto accident, two expected starters in the secondary left the program, and safety Javon Walker isn't fully recovered from last season's ACL injury. That leaves just one of the top five tacklers back in uniform from a unit that ranked last in the conference in scoring, total defense, passing, yards per play and QB completion percentage.

Outlook - All the preseason hype for NC State is unwarranted as the Pack win just three league games and seven overall.

3) WAKE FOREST - The Demon Deacons are coming off their most successful three- year run in school history at 28-12. They are 2-7 ATS as double-digit favorites, but 6-2 ATS as double-digit dogs over the last five years.

Offense - With only five returning starters and an o-line with 30 career starts, the "O" averaged just 21 ppg, down a full TD from '07. This year, the line brings back the second most career starts in the nation. Riley Skinner is currently the ACC's all-time completion percentage leader and he'll go out with a bang in his final year in Winston-Salem.

Defense - Nine of the top 10 tacklers returned last season and the Demon Deacons allowed just 18 ppg, even though they finished last in the country in red zone defense. This year, the unit will be without last year's top five tacklers (four NFL draftees) so look for a major increase in points allowed.

Outlook - The Deacons play five of their first six games at home, where they are 10-3 the last two years. They'll post 7-5 (4-4) numbers, earning a fourth straight postseason trip.

2) FLORIDA STATE - The Seminoles won nine games for the first time since '04, but finished just 7-4 against FBS competition. They are 11-4 ATS off a SU loss the last three years.

Offense - Even though eight starters return, those responsible for 71% of last year's points will not be back. Christian Ponder's lone 200-yard passing game came against NC State, the 12th-rated pass defense in the ACC last season. He should improve in his second year, especially with all five o-line starters back in the fold. Even with the more demanding non-conference schedule, the offense should have another solid season.

Defense - Nine of the other 11 ACC teams saw their sack total either remain the same or drop. The Seminoles total increased from 29 to 39. Unfortunately, the top three sack leaders depart along with the top three tacklers. FSU has allowed between 21 and 23 ppg in league play the last four years so even with the losses, look for similar numbers in '09.

Outlook - The Seminoles have not won the Atlantic Division since '05 and will fail once again with a 6-2 league mark (including a loss to Clemson) and an 8-4 overall record.

1) CLEMSON - The Tigers finished 4-4 despite being the only team in the league to finish in the top four in both scoring offense and defense. They are 2-5 ATS in non-conference play but 4-2 as a road favorite over the last two years.

Offense - Clemson has won 54% of its games since 1963 when one o-lineman returns, and last year's 7-6 mark continued that trend. However, when all five come back (as is the case in '09), the Tigers win at a 76% clip. Look for the offense to explode this season easily topping last year's 21-ppg average in league play, even with an inexperienced QB.

Defense - Clemson had to break in three new LBs last year and DE Ricky Sapp was on the field only 40% of the time due to injuries. Still, the Tigers finished second in the nation in fewest yards allowed per pass. Clemson has ranked either first or second in ACC play in both scoring and total defense each of the last two seasons, and this year will be no different.

Outlook - The Tigers have not won an ACC title since '91. With expectations down this season, look for them to take the first step by winning the Atlantic with a 6-2 mark along with 10 victories overall.

COASTAL DIVISION

6) DUKE - David Cutcliffe's first year at Duke was a success as the Blue Devils equaled their win total (four) from the previous four seasons under Ted Roof. They are 2-6 ATS as home underdogs the last two years but 11-6 ATS as road "dogs" the last three.

Offense - Duke averaged 20 ppg for the first time this decade, even though starting TB Re'quan Boyette missed the entire season due to injury. He's back, along with QB Thaddeus Lewis, but there are some concerns. Eron Riley, who caught twice as many passes as the second leading receiver, must be replaced, and the o-line loses three, three-year starters.

Defense - The defense, with seven of the top 10 tacklers on board, gave up just 23 ppg, 10 points fewer than in '07. However, the Blue Devils still finished next-to-last in league play in scoring and total defense, and now only three of last season's top 10 tacklers return. Expect a major bump up back into the 30-ppg range.

Outlook - This year will be a step back for the program even though the Devils will match last year's win totals (four overall - one in the ACC) due to a very soft schedule.

5) VIRGINIA - The Cavaliers are a combined 17-19 since '05 when 11 or 12 starters return. Eleven come back to Charlottesville in '09 so look for another mediocre season. They are, however, an amazing 16-5 ATS as a home underdog the last eight years.

Offense - Virginia experimented with Vic Hall at QB in the season finale and it looks as if the cornerback will line up under center in this year's first game in the new no-huddle, spread offense. The Cavaliers need all the help they can get after finishing last in the conference in scoring, rushing and total offense. Unfortunately, they'll be without their leading rusher and top five pass-catchers, so another lackluster season is expected.

Defense - Virginia had to replace its entire defensive line for '08. This year five of the top six tacklers depart, and if Vic Hall doesn't play defense, then the top six won't be back. The "D" may be on the field for more plays than last year, especially if the new offense struggles, so look for Virginia to allow the most points since '01 (27.6 ppg).

Outlook - The Cavaliers will have their worst season since '86 when they finished 3-8 and 2-5 in the ACC. Just add one more loss to both totals with the 12-game schedule.

4) NORTH CAROLINA - The Tar Heels won eight games for the first time since '01, a monumental task considering quarterback T.J. Yates missed more than half the season. They are 5-2 ATS in non-conference play the last two years.

Offense - Besides Yates, the Tar Heels also lost WR Brandon Tate midway through the season but still finished second in the league in scoring. Yates returns but he'll be without four targets drafted by the NFL. In addition, the ground game, which came to a halt the final four games averaging 3.2 ypc, ranked eighth in the ACC at 123 ypg.

Defense - UNC allowed just 21 ppg (its best total since '01) and 365 ypg. However, the last number was good for 11th place in the ACC as the defense was on the field for 950 plays, over 100 more than seven of the other 11 squads. With 11 of the top 13 tacklers back, look for the "D" to cut down on the yardage allowed and play up to its potential.

Outlook - It will be tough to top last year's record but the Tar Heels will still finish 7-5 (3-5 in the ACC) due to two games vs. FCS teams.

3) GEORGIA TECH - Paul Johnson's first season in Atlanta was a success as the Yellow Jackets won nine games for just the third time this decade. They went 8-3 ATS last year and are now 5-1 ATS as a road underdog the last two years.

Offense - Georgia Tech ranked first in league play in total offense but only sixth in scoring. Finishing in a tie for 82nd-place nationally inside the red zone will curtail a lot of momentum, so that's one area in which the Yellow Jackets need to get better. The other is turnovers, as the offense ranked 118th in fumbles lost with 20. If those two departments improve, this offense will be the school's most prolific since '01, when it averaged 30 ppg.

Defense - Georgia Tech came into last season without seven of its top 10 tacklers and the "D" allowed two points less per game in league play. This year, eight of the top nine return but the line has to be rebuilt with the loss of three players to the NFL.

Outlook - The entire squad should improve in the second year under Paul Johnson but then again, the rest of the ACC will be better prepared to deal with the option attack. Nevertheless, the Yellow Jackets pick up eight wins, five in league play.

2) MIAMI-FLORIDA - The Hurricanes found themselves back in the postseason after a one-year hiatus, but fell to Cal in the Emerald Bowl. They have not had a winning ATS season since '04, and are 11-21 ATS in conference play the last four years.

Offense - The Hurricanes offense feasted on ACC opponents last year finishing third in total offense (11th in '07) and second in scoring (10th in '07). They also tied for third nationally at 93.6% inside the red zone. Ten different wideouts posted at least 100 receiving yards and QB Jacory Harris completed 50 of his final 79 passes, five for TDs.

Defense - Whatever scoring the 'Canes picked up inside their opponents 20-yard line, they gave it right back on defense as only two teams in the country allowed more red zone scores. This year's "D" will be miles ahead of last season's unit (only one player started all 13 games) as the level of talent continues to climb.

Outlook - Miami opens the season at FSU, vs. Georgia Tech and at Virginia Tech. If the Hurricanes can win two of those matchups, they'll be in great shape to win nine games and go 6-2 in conference play.

1) VIRGINIA TECH - The Hokies won another ACC title, this time with only 10 returning starters and an offense that finished eighth in league play in scoring and 10th overall. They are just 3-8 ATS as home favorites the last two years.

Offense - The Hokies reached the red zone over four times per game (first in ACC) but scored TDs on less than half of their chances (11th in ACC) leading to their lowest offensive output (22 ppg) since '89. Tyrod Taylor should finally perform up to his potential without Sean Glennon lurking in the background, and eight other starters return, including Darren Evans, who broke the ACC freshman rushing record last year with 1,265 yards.

Defense - Virginia Tech actually gave up fewer yards last year with only four returning starters (eight in '07). Seven come back this season and that doesn't even include Cody Grimm, who finished third on the team with 71 tackles. The Hokies are loaded defensively, more so than the previous two years when they allowed 17 and 16 ppg.

Outlook - Frank Beamer's club has an outside chance at an unbeaten regular season but a 10-2 mark (seven conference wins) is what's in store for '09

 

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Pac-10 Money Makers

Pac-10 Money Makers

Pac-10 Money Makers

The Pac-10 struggled last year with a 12-17 SU (15-14 ATS) non-conference regular season record. The failures were understandable, as only one team (Washington State) returned a greater number of starters in '08 than the year before. Nevertheless, the league was dominant in the postseason with a 5-0 SU mark (4-1 ATS).

Even though the conference was down, there was an easy way to make money betting on Pac-10 games last season. All one had to do was to play the betting choice in every single league battle since the favorite prevailed 59% of the time.

Here are some other Pac-10 trends to follow - all against the spread.

Oregon State has covered nine of its last 10 vs. Arizona and is 3-1 the last four games played at Cal (all straight up victories). Stanford is 5-1 the last six against the Wildcats but just 1-6 the last seven vs. Oregon.

Four teams have fared well vs. USC of late as Arizona is 4-0 and Washington is 3-1 the last four years, while Stanford is 4-1 the last five and UCLA has covered the last three. The Trojans have made up for it against Oregon (5-1 the last six years) and Cal (3-1 the last four).

Speaking of the Ducks, they have covered the last five games against Washington and the last four vs. Arizona State, while the Sun Devils usually get the best of the Huskies (5-0 the last five years) but have a hard time with UCLA and Cal (both 1-5 the last six) and Arizona (1-4 the last five). Finally, WSU is 7-1 the last eight games vs. UCLA but the one loss came last year.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

10) WASHINGTON STATE - The Cougars finished 1-11 in FBS play last year while being outscored 561-117 for a 47-10 average. They are 4-8 ATS as a road underdog the last two seasons but 3-1 ATS the last four matchups with the Huskies.

Offense - Not only did the Cougars finish 118th nationally in total offense, they were shut out three times in conference play and outscored by an average of 50-9 in their nine Pac-10 games. Injuries forced Wazoo to start four different QBs who combined for a 6-21 TD/INT ratio. It will be interesting to see if the offense can improve without Brandon Gibson, the school's all-time leading receiver.

Defense - The defense ranked last in the country vs. the run and 118th nationally in scoring. Opposing offenses reached the red zone an average of six times per game. Can Wazoo turn things around? Not likely, since JC star pass rusher Brandon Rankin might not be available (academics) until next season and the two expected starting corners were dismissed from the team earlier this year

Outlook - The Cougars can't be any worse than last year but they will at 0-12.

9) WASHINGTON - The Huskies lost their starting QB, Jake Locker, in the fourth game and never recovered. They finished with a winless season (1-11 ATS) and are 3-15 ATS in league play the last two years.

Offense - New head coach Steve Sarkisian comes over from USC, not only to change a losing atmosphere, but also to help Locker become a more polished quarterback. The Huskies will change to a pro-style offense, which means the junior QB must focus more on passing than running. Don't forget the team came into last year with a receiving corps that featured only one player with a college reception in '07. If Locker handles the switch in offensive schemes, the Huskies could have the most improved offense in the country.

Defense - Not only did Sarkisian come to Seattle, he brought USC's defensive coordinator, Nick Holt, along with him. Holt has a lot of work to do, as Washington actually allowed more yards per game than WSU. However, three starters, including leading tackler E.J. Savannah, were unexpectedly lost before 2008 began. Not only do 10 starters return in '09, but Savannah is back as well. Look for a massive upgrade in production as the Huskies allow at least a TD less than the 39 ppg average from last year.

Outlook - Washington's improved play might not show in terms of wins (look for four with three Pac-10 victories), but the team's ATS record will be over .500 after last season's 1-11 mark.

8) UCLA - The Bruins have 16 returning starters after just six came back a year ago. That was one reason why they won only four games. UCLA is 20-5 ATS off a SU loss the last five years (5-2 in '08) and 24-8 ATS in its last 32 home games.

Offense - A successful offensive campaign is extremely doubtful when 11 different offensive linemen start during the course of a season. The Bruins finished 116th in the nation in rushing (83 ypg on 2.6 ypc), and Kevin Craft was just as futile, throwing 20 interceptions. Kevin Prince should become the team's first freshman opening game starting QB since 1989 when the Bruins went 3-7-1. Prince wasn't overly impressive in the spring but '09's offense will be better than last years.

Defense - This unit returned just two of its top 10 tacklers and allowed 29 ppg. Surprisingly, the Bruins finished second behind USC in league play giving up 302 ypg, and opposing Pac-10 QBs completed just 48% of their passes. Imagine how much more effective the secondary will be with a much-improved front seven. The defense will be among the best in the conference.

Outlook - This team is very reminiscent of the '06 club - a monster defense with shaky quarterback play. That team went 7-5 (5-4) but this squad will fall a bit short at 6-6 (4-5).

7) ARIZONA STATE - The Sun Devils won just five games last year for their first losing season since '03. They are 1-6-1 ATS as an underdog the last two years.

Offense - Not since 1966 had the Sun Devils averaged less than 309 ypg. The "O" also failed to score a first quarter TD in all 11 FBS games and converted just 29% of its third-down chances. Rudy Carpenter had a miserable senior season but his '08 numbers will still be better than this year's totals. If the o-line can't open holes for RBs Ryan Bass and Dimitri Nance, it could be another painful year in Tempe.

Defense - The defense allowed the second-fewest TDs in the league and ranked third behind USC and Cal in yards per play. The Sun Devils also held nine of their 11 FBS opponents below their season average. The pieces are in place for another special defensive unit but unless the offense improves, it might not matter.

Outlook - ASU is one of those teams that fail when expectations are high and succeed when they are low, so even though this is not a great team on paper, it could surprise. I'll call for a .500 season with four Pac-10 victories.

6) OREGON STATE - The Beavers are 28-12 SU and sport the second-best conference winning percentage behind USC over the last three years. They are also 24-14 ATS (9-4 as a home favorite) over that time span.

Offense - OSU improved from eighth to third in the league with 421 ypg (351 in '07) as Jacquizz Rodgers burst on the scene for 1,253 rushing yards. However, he was not the reason for the improvement as Yvenson Bernard had posted similar numbers the year before. Quarterback play was the sole reason the offense improved, as the passing game jumped from ninth to first in Pac-10 action. That, however, could change in '09, as Lyle Moevao might not be back from injury by the start of the season. In addition, the Beavers will be without last year's top two receivers.

Defense - OSU ranked fourth nationally in tackles for loss and sixth best with a 29.7% third-down conversion percentage. This unit, which returns three starters for the second straight year, brings back only 46 career starts as opposed to 96 in '08, so look for a huge increase in points allowed from last season's 23 ppg total.

Outlook - It's hard to ever count out a Mike Riley-coached team but he'll have his work cut out for him this season after a school-record seven players were drafted into the NFL. The Beavers fall to 6-6 with only four conference victories after posting seven in '08.

5) OREGON - It was an up-and-down offseason for the Ducks, with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly taking over for Mike Bellotti, and multiple players leaving the program. Still, Oregon is the only Pac-10 team to post six consecutive above .500 ATS seasons with an overall 44-29 ATS mark and a 60% winning percentage.

Offense - It was an explosive offensive year as the Ducks led the nation with a 6.2 rushing average while scoring 42 ppg. It's doubtful they'll come close to such numbers in '09 as the team has its least experienced o-line since '05. That year Terrence Whitehead rushed for just 679 yards (4.4 ypc) after going for 1,144 (5.7 ypc) the year before when a more seasoned group of blockers were opening the holes. Moreover, Oregon will be without half its RB duo (Jeremiah Johnson) and two of its top three receivers.

Defense - The Ducks ranked seventh in the league in scoring and eighth in total defense despite finishing fourth in yards per play allowed at 4.9. The defense was on the field for almost 35 minutes per game, allowing over 1,000 plays. Even though just five of the top 10 tacklers return, Kelly has brought in a host of JC transfers so it's doubtful the ppg average will rise from last year's 28-point total.

Outlook - This season's squad bears a closer resemblance to the 7-6 team from '06, rather than the last two teams that combined for 19 victories. Look for seven wins, five in league play.

4) STANFORD - Last year's five victories equaled the total of the previous two seasons. The Cardinal has not been to a bowl game since '01 despite a 9-3 ATS mark as a home favorite over the last seven years.

Offense - The offense did most of its damage on the ground last season averaging 200 ypg (111 in '07) on 4.9 ypc (3.0 in '07). The credit is divided amongst RB Toby Gerhart (1,136 yards and 15 TDs) and the o-line that allowed 21 sacks (48 in '07). The major change in '09 is an upgrade at the QB spot, as redshirt freshman Andrew Luck takes over for Tavita Pritchard.

Defense - The defense allowed 55 fewer ypg last year compared to '07 but still ranked ninth vs. the pass and seventh vs. the run in league play. The run defense was impressive early on allowing just 107 ypg on 3.1 ypc in the first nine, but gave up 292 ypg on 7.2 ypc in the final three vs. Oregon, USC and Cal. Coach Jim Harbaugh was very pleased with the increased depth this spring so look for the "D" to come up huge in '09.

Outlook - After playing seven road games last year, Stanford has seven at home this season. The Cardinal gets back to the postseason with a 7-5 record, 5-4 in the Pac-10.

3) ARIZONA - The Wildcats defeated ASU to reach the postseason for the first time in 10 years. They are also 8-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.

Offense - The "Air Raid" offense should have been renamed the "Ground Raid" attack as the team ran the ball 55% of the time. That switch will fit new QB Matt Scott like a glove. But if the team needs to throw the ball, look for Nick Foles, who has a cannon for an arm, to supply the power. Tight End Rob Gronkowski and a powerful running game will assist whoever gets the bulk of the action at QB.

Defense - Even though the Wildcats returned just three starters last year, they cut down their scoring total from 27 down to 21, good for a third place finish in Pac-10 play. This year's group should be even stronger with 10 upperclassmen, and the lone sophomore, Robert Golden, could end up being the best of the bunch. Coach Mike Stoops could not stop raving about his defense throughout the summer.

Outlook - This is the deepest, most talented team Arizona has had in quite some time. The 'Cats will win six Pac-10 games (eight overall) for the first time since 1998.

2) SOUTHERN CAL - The Trojans, who have won the conference title every year since '03, are 11-1 ATS in non-conference play the last three years, but only 10-16-1 ATS in the Pac-10.

Offense - Even though the offense averaged 37.5 ppg (highest since '05), the Trojans scored more than 28 points in just two of the seven Pac-10 games not involving the Washington schools. It'll be tough replacing Mark Sanchez and his 34 TD passes, but Aaron Corp (USC's first sophomore starting QB since Carson Palmer) has the number one o-line in the country and a top-flight ground game to help break him in.

Defense - The Trojans allowed an unbelievable 9.0 ppg average and gave up only 22 second-half points the entire season. This year the Trojans bring back just three returning starters and the entire front seven sports only 19 career starts. This is by far the Trojans' least experienced defense in over a decade. That doesn't mean they'll allow 20 ppg, but opposing teams will be able to run the ball against them at a rate not seen since '05 when they gave up 131 rushing yards per game and a 3.8 ypc average.

Outlook - USC has lost five conference games the last three years, and this is its weakest club since Pete Carroll's initial season in '01. Even with the mass exodus on defense, the Trojans will still find a way to win 10 games along with a 7-2 conference mark.

1) CALIFORNIA - The Golden Bears rebounded from a 3-6 Pac-10 record in '07 to post a 6-3 mark last year. However, they are 1-6 ATS as road favorites the last two seasons.

Offense - For a team that boasted the conference's leading rusher, it was strange to see the offense run the ball only 49% of the time over the first 10 games, especially since the Golden Bears came into last year without their top five pass-catchers. Rushing plays were called at a 68% clip thereafter, and the team won its last three matchups. Look for increased production with a new offensive coordinator and a much more experienced receiving corps.

Defense - Last year's defense gave up just 20 ppg despite allowing the second most offensive plays in the conference. The unit finished second nationally in red zone defense and third in interceptions with 24. The entire secondary returns, as do 10 of the top 13 tacklers for the second straight season. All that's left is for the offense to control more of the clock so the defense won't have to be on the field as much as it was in '08.

Outlook - California will win 10 games (seven in the conference), including a victory over USC. Jeff Tedford's squad is also a major player to win the BCS Championship

 

[Lumi]

Big East - Must improve Against the Spread

Big East - Must improve Against the Spread

Big East - Must improve Against the Spread

The Big East has seen its ATS winning percentage in out-of-conference games dip downward in recent years despite maintaining solid SU records.

Back in '06, the league went 27-11-1 ATS (71%) in non-conference matchups with an incredible 16-5 ATS mark (76%) vs. other BCS teams. Two years ago, the numbers fell (23-16 and 9-9) but were still respectable for what's considered the weakest of the six BCS leagues.

Last season was a disgrace, as the Big East went 16-24 ATS (40%) out-of- conference even though the eight teams won 26 games straight up for the second consecutive year. In addition, the league finished 10th out of the 11 conferences vs. BCS teams with a 7-13 ATS mark, including four failed covers in bowl games. (The WAC held the bottom position at 5-14.)

The only time to bet on Big East teams is in conference play where the underdog has taken center stage the last two years with a fantastic 59% winning percentage. In fact, the "dog" has covered better than 50% each of the last three seasons.

How will this year shake out? I expect four of the six clubs that went bowling to post fewer regular season victories in '09. In terms of team win totals, take the under on Louisville, Connecticut, Syracuse and the over with Cincinnati and West Virginia.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

8) SYRACUSE - Doug Marrone replaces Greg Robinson after four disastrous seasons (10-37). The Orange went 2-7 ATS in non-conference play the last two years.

Offense - Syracuse has averaged 16 ppg over the last four years while finishing last in Big East play in scoring and total offense each and every one of those seasons. Wide receiver Mike Williams returns after missing last year, but who will get him the ball remains a major question mark. Marrone named redshirt freshman Ryan Nassib the starter on the fifth day of spring practice but Greg Paulus, the former Duke point guard who hasn't played football since high school, could be tabbed as the number one signal caller with an impressive fall camp.

Defense - After allowing 39 ppg and 496 ypg in '07 in conference play, the defense gave up just 32 ppg and 391 ypg last season. Unfortunately, Syracuse managed to rank dead last in rushing, allowing almost a full yard more per carry than the year before. Don't expect any improvements since seven of the top 10 tacklers will not be back.

Outlook - Syracuse plays just one road game until November 7, but the team is just 2-10 at the Carrier Dome the last two years (vs. FBS competition). Look for a 1-10 season and the Orange's first winless Big East campaign since 2005.

7) LOUISVILLE - The heat is on Steve Kragthorpe after a pair of bowl-less campaigns in his only two years with the Cardinals. The team is just 4-10 ATS in conference play and 8-14 ATS overall in those two seasons.

Offense - Louisville is coming off its lowest scoring total (24.7 ppg) since 1997 and its weakest passing offense (212 ypg) since 1992. Still, the Cardinals finished second in league play in total yards. Thirty turnovers and a 71% red zone percentage prevented more touchdowns. Running back Victor Anderson returns, as do the top two receivers, and WR Scott Long should be healthy after playing in only three games last year (all victories). On the other hand, both tackles depart and a new quarterback must be found.

Defense - The Cardinals allowed 47 fewer ypg than in '07, but still finished dead last in scoring and total defense in Big East play. They also ended the year with a string of five straight games without a sack. Injuries played a part in the disappointing numbers, as only one player started all 12 games. Still, there's a distinct difference in Louisville's talent level compared to the rest of the conference, so don't expect a massive turnaround.

Outlook - Kragthorpe was not pleased with the club's depth in the spring despite 49 returning lettermen. This will be his last season at Louisville, as the Cardinals win just three games and finish next-to-last in league play with a 2-5 mark.

6) CONNECTICUT - The Huskies went bowling for the second straight year after winning a combined nine games the previous two seasons. They are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog the last four years but just 5-14 ATS as a road underdog over the last five.

Offense - How will the Huskies replace Donald Brown's 2,083 rushing yards and 18 TDs? Jordan Todman (8.5 ypc in three games with six or more carries) and '07 leading rusher Andre Dixon both return so the running game might not suffer as one would think. Nevertheless, quarterback Zach Frazer (six interceptions in 83 attempts last year) wasn't impressive in the spring and the receivers are not very sure-handed.

Defense - The Huskies allowed less than 20 ppg in '07 and '08 while finishing third in the league in scoring both years. They ranked sixth nationally last season in total defense and eighth in third-down percentage. This year might be different as Cody Brown and Julius Williams both depart after combining for 33 sacks the last two campaigns. Moreover, depth in the secondary will also be a concern, especially without star CB Darius Butler.

Outlook - Connecticut falls flat with a 4-8 record and just three Big East victories.

5) RUTGERS - After a disastrous 1-5 start (-7 turnover margin), the Scarlet Knights rebounded to win their final seven games (+8 TO ratio). They also went 7-0 ATS in conference play and have now covered eight of their last 10 as a road underdog.

Offense - Mike Teel completed 68% of his passes for 343 ypg and a 22-6 TD/INT ratio in his final six contests. The passing game also opened up the ground attack, as the Scarlet Knights rushed for more yards in the last five matchups than they did in the first eight. Rutgers sports one of the best o-lines in the country but when Teel was struggling the first half of the year, the offense fizzled (13 ppg in FBS play). If the new quarterback cannot keep opposing defenses honest, it could be a long season for the Knights.

Defense - Rutgers finished sixth in league play allowing 343 ypg (first vs. the run but seventh against the pass). This year's defense should post similar Big East rankings as the front seven is loaded with talent and the secondary loses the only two defenders with two interceptions. Keep in mind the overall numbers might improve since the Knights play two FCS teams and Army among their five non-conference games.

Outlook - This year's squad is weaker compared to previous editions, but could post more regular season wins due to a very weak schedule. Look for Rutgers to finish 4-3 in the league with eight overall victories.

4) PITTSBURGH - Last year was quite a successful campaign with nine victories for the Panthers, but a repeat might not be in the cards without LeSean McCoy and his 21 touchdowns. The Panthers have fallen short as home favorites (2-6 ATS) and succeeded as road dogs (7-2 ATS) over the last two years.

Offense - Not only is McCoy gone, but LaRod Stephens-Howling also departs. The pair combined for over 3,400 yards and 41 TDs the last two seasons. In addition, the offense could stumble if Bill Stull and Pat Bostick (19-31 TD/INT ratio in '07 and '08) fail to pick up their play. There's a very good chance this offense will go from 30 ppg in league play down to 23 ppg.

Defense - This unit underachieved for most of last season, allowing 3.6 ypc and 23 ppg vs. the other seven Big East teams. However, 2007's second and third leading tacklers Shane Murray and Adam Gunn were limited to just one game apiece due to injuries. Both linebackers are back for '09 so even though the defense loses its top three tacklers (and four of five), the Panthers could actually show improvement considering eight former starters return to man the other nine slots.

Outlook - The defense will keep Pittsburgh in almost every game but the offense must come through if the team wants to contend for the title. That's a big if. The Panthers take a step backwards with 7-5, 4-3 records.

3) CINCINNATI - The Bearcats broke a school record with 11 wins but must figure out how to move forward with only one returning defensive starter. Over the last three years, they are 8-2 ATS off a SU loss, 5-1 as home underdogs and 13-7-1 in league play.

Offense - Tony Pike replaced Dustin Grutza after two games and finished as a second team All-Big East QB. He'll have two enticing targets in Mardy Gilyard and Jamar Howard to throw to so the passing game should still be explosive. Cincinnati has not had a 100-yard back since September 30, 2006 but Isaiah Pead could change that as he rushed for 182 yards on 6.7 ypc in the three games in which he had two or more carries. The Bearcats have a veteran offensive unit and should post the highest scoring average in the Big East.

Defense - Cincinnati brought back three starters and just two of its top 12 tacklers in '04 and the team allowed only four more ppg than the previous season. Additionally, there have been 16 teams over the last 11 years that returned only two starters and those defenses also gave up an average of just four more ppg. Head coach Brian Kelly was impressed with the line and corners in the spring, so don't expect a major drop-off.

Outlook - The Bearcats will not win back-to-back Big East titles but they will be better than expected. In fact, they could easily upset Rutgers in week one. Expect seven wins with four coming in league play.

2) SOUTH FLORIDA - Over the last two regular seasons, the Bulls are 11-1 SU (6-5 ATS) in the first half of the year but just 5-7 SU (6-6 ATS) in the second. They are 3-7 ATS as road favorites in that time span but 3-0 ATS when getting points.

Offense - With an injury-free season, Matt Grothe will become the school's all-time leading passer and could even pass Andre Hall as the number one rusher as well. His numbers improved last year but not as much as one would have expected with nine other starters back. This year, just five others return, and the o-line is being rebuilt with JC transfers and redshirt freshmen. As long as the line develops, the "O" could actually be more productive in '09.

Defense - Opposing teams rushed for just 95 ypg against the Bulls - good for 10th-best in the country. The defense did a remarkable job considering it forced only 17 miscues compared to 42 the year before. Expect a sharp turnaround with former Cincinnati defensive coordinator (and secondary coach) Joe Tresey on board. Don't forget, the Bearcats recorded 66 turnovers the last two years. The Bulls play a 4-2-5 defense so look for Tresey to fire up a young secondary.

Outlook - Grothe and defensive end George Selvie returned to Tampa this year to win a Big East Championship. The Bulls will come up a game short of their goal but improve from 7-5, 2-5 regular season records to 8-4 and 5-2.

1) WEST VIRGINIA - The Mountaineers won nine games last year (almost 11 as two losses came in OT) despite bringing back only three defensive starters. On the other hand, they are just 7-13-1 in Big East play the last three years against the spread.

Offense - The offense returned eight starters last season but scored 30 fewer TDs than the year before. In fact, the team reached the red zone just 37 times for a league low 70% scoring average. The change in offensive philosophy came a year too early as the Mountaineers struggled under new OC Jeff Mullen. However, look for a revival with Jarrett Brown at quarterback since the offensive schemes will be right up his alley. Throw in RB Noel Devine, an improved receiving core, and an offensive line in its second year in the system and you have the makings of a vastly improved offense.

Defense - West Virginia played without 11 of its top 14 tacklers last year and the unit actually allowed one point less per game than the year before while ranking 11th nationally in scoring defense. The Mountaineers led the country in red zone "D" at a 64% percentage after giving up scores at an 86% clip in '07. This season's numbers could be even stronger with nine of the top 12 coming back, along with Reed Williams, who missed most of last season after leading the team in tacklers two years ago.

Outlook - If Jarrett Brown doesn't try to force the action offensively, the Mountaineers could not only dominate the conference with six victories (11 overall), but they are the top long shot play to win the BCS Championship.