Thursday - Oregon at Boise State (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)

[Lumi]

Thursday - Oregon at Boise State (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)

Arguably the best game on the board this week happens in Idaho, when No. 14 Boise State welcomes No. 16 Oregon to the "smurf turf." A lot of folks believe that if the Bronocs and head coach Chris Peterson can win this tilt, they'll have a great shot to run the table an earn a BCS berth. QB Kellen Moore leads a Boise attack that averaged 37.6 PPG last year, but the gunslinger will be without his top two receivers and starting running back this season. The Broncos' defense only gave up 12.6 PPG last year and that unit will be tested against an Oregon offense that posted 41.9 PPG in 2008. The Ducks posted 55, 65 and 42 points to close the year. QB Jeremiah Masoli returns and he's got plenty of talent around him. This game will be the first go 'round for Oregon head coach Chip Kelly. He's familiar with the program and the mastermind of the attack, having been the Ducks' offensive coordinator the past two years.

Boise State dropped Oregon 37-32 last year as a 10-point underdog in Eugene. The Broncos led 24-6 at the half and still won despite getting outscored 19-0 in the final 15 minutes. Moore was sharp in the victory, completing 24-of-36 passes for 386 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon did play with its third string QB in the second half due to injuries, yet they still managed to put up 464 yards on offense. Including this win, Boise State is still only 3-11 against Pac 10 opponents. Despite last year's loss, Oregon had won 15 in a row against the WAC dating back to 1996. The Ducks have gone 8-7 ATS during this run, and covered four in a row. Last year, the combined 69 points easily jumped 'over' the total. Thursday's number has been hovering between 63 and 64 points. Gamblers can back the Ducks with four points on the spread or look for the outright victory at a plus-160 return.

 

[Lumi]

Boise State Broncos (0-0) (0-0 H) vs Oregon Ducks (0-0) (0-0 A)

Boise State Broncos (0-0) (0-0 H) vs Oregon Ducks (0-0) (0-0 A)

Boise State Broncos (0-0) (0-0 H) vs Oregon Ducks (0-0) (0-0 A)

Game Time: 10:15 p.m. EDT Thursday, September 3

Stadium: Bronco Stadium Surface: Turf




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Oregon Ducks HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 5 - 1 4 - 2 9 - 3 3 - 3 3 - 3 6 - 6 3 - 1 2 - 3 5 - 4
Last 5 games 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1
YTD vs. Conf. 4 - 0 3 - 2 7 - 2 2 - 2 3 - 2 5 - 4 2 - 1 2 - 2 4 - 3
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Boise State Broncos HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 6 - 0 6 - 0 12 - 0 2 - 2 5 - 1 7 - 3 1 - 1 3 - 0 4 - 1
Last 5 games 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 0
YTD vs. Conf. 4 - 0 4 - 0 8 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 1 5 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 0 3 - 1
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Oregon Ducks 2 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 3 2 - 0 3 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 3
Boise State Broncos 4 - 1 1 - 0 4 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 2



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Oregon Ducks
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
08/30/08 Sat WA 44 - 10 W -10.5 -14 W 20 59 61 U -7.0 T
09/06/08 Sat UTST 66 - 24 W -36 -36.5 W 5.5 0 0 O +-90.0 T
09/13/08 Sat @PUR 32 - 26 W -6 -7.5 L -1.5 60 59 U -1.0 G
09/20/08 Sat BST 32 - 37 L -9.5 -10.5 L -15.5 55 52 O +-17.0 T
09/27/08 Sat @WAST 63 - 14 W -21 -21.5 W 27.5 0 0 O +-77.0 T
10/04/08 Sat @USC 10 - 44 L +18 +16 L -18 57 56 U -2.0 G
10/11/08 Sat UCLA 31 - 24 W -16 -20.5 L -13.5 56 55 U 0.0 T
10/25/08 Sat @AZST 54 - 20 W -4 -3.5 W 30.5 53.5 54 O +-20.0 G
11/01/08 Sat @CA 16 - 26 L +3 +2.5 L -7.5 65 57.5 U -15.5 G
11/08/08 Sat STAN 35 - 28 W -12 -14 L -7 56 55.5 O +- 7.5 T
11/15/08 Sat AZ 55 - 45 W -6 -6 W 4 60 60.5 O +-39.5 T
11/29/08 Sat @ORST 65 - 38 W +3.5 +3 W 30 60 58.5 O +-44.5 T


Boise State Broncos
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
08/30/08 Sat IDS 49 - 7 W 0 0 W 42 0 0 O +-56.0 T
09/13/08 Sat BG 20 - 7 W -17.5 -17 L -4 0 0 O +-27.0 T
09/20/08 Sat @OR 37 - 32 W +9.5 +10.5 W 15.5 55 52 O +-17.0 T
10/01/08 Wed LATECH 38 - 3 W -19 -24 W 11 53 56 U -15.0 T
10/11/08 Sat @SMS 24 - 7 W -14 -10 W 7 0 0 O +-31.0 G
10/17/08 Fri HI 27 - 7 W -24 -23.5 L -3.5 0 0 O +-34.0 T
10/24/08 Fri @SJST 33 - 16 W -8.5 -7 W 10 44 41 O +- 8.0 G
11/01/08 Sat @NMST 49 - 0 W -20 -21.5 W 27.5 0 0 O +-49.0 G
11/08/08 Sat UTST 49 - 14 W -31 -35 L 0 0 0 O +-63.0 T
11/15/08 Sat @ID 45 - 10 W -34 -36.5 L -1.5 0 0 O +-55.0 T
11/22/08 Sat @NV 41 - 34 W -4 -6.5 W 0.5 61 61.5 O +-13.5 G
11/28/08 Fri FRE 61 - 10 W -20 -21.5 W 29.5 59 57.5 O +-13.5 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/20/08 Sat BST 37 OR 32 -9.5 -10.5 OR --15.5 55.0 52.0 O +-17 T




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
OR (off) 40.0 23 47 268 5.7 30 16 0.5 194 6.5 462 1.0 1.0
BST (def) 8.0 17 35 87 2.5 34 19 0.6 200 5.9 287 2.0 1.0
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
OR (def) 28.0 22 37 127 3.4 44 24 0.5 276 6.3 403 1.7 1.8
BST (off) 40.7 22 36 164 4.6 31 22 0.7 304 9.8 468 0.5 1.2
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
OR (off) 41.9 23 45 278 6.2 29 16 0.6 200 6.9 478 0.9 1.1
BST (def) 12.3 17 35 105 3.0 34 18 0.5 190 5.6 295 1.7 0.9
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
OR (def) 28.0 21 39 119 3.1 40 23 0.6 264 6.6 383 1.2 1.3
BST (off) 39.4 23 36 163 4.5 34 23 0.7 294 8.6 457 0.8 1.2



SCORING AVERAGES:

Oregon Ducks (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 11.2 8.3 19.5 12.2 6.8 1.0 20
POINTS ALLOWED 5.3 10.2 15.5 5.7 6.3 0.0 12



Boise State Broncos (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.2 13.8 20 13.3 7.3 0.0 20.6
POINTS ALLOWED 1.2 4.5 5.7 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.4



Oregon Ducks (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 12.2 9.0 21.2 10.4 9.6 0.5 20.5
POINTS ALLOWED 3.8 10.8 14.6 5.9 7.3 0.0 13.2



Boise State Broncos (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.5 14.9 21.4 11.5 6.5 0.0 18
POINTS ALLOWED 2.2 3.6 5.8 3.5 3.0 0.0 6.5



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Oregon Ducks 60 5.0
Boise State Broncos 56.5 -0.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 61 UNKNOWN

 

[Lumi]

College season kicks off

College season kicks off

College season kicks off

It?s September. Time to get back to work.
Football season is upon us. This is the undisputed No. 1 sport for handicappers, well ahead of basketball and baseball in popularity. College football has a special appeal for sharps because of the size of the marketplace ? 120 teams will play in the Football Bowl Subdivision this year. We get to pick and choose the lines we like the most.

The best value against the spread is generally found in the mid-majors and lower. In 2008, you?d have made a killing with the Boise State Broncos (8-3-1 ATS last year) in the WAC and the Ball State Cardinals (9-4 ATS) in the MAC. But the biggest winners this time around were the national champion Florida Gators and the runner-up Oklahoma Sooners (10-2 ATS), both far too good to let a little chalk get in the way of a nice wad of cash. The Gators are 1-3 favorites to win the SEC this year and 2-1 favorites to make it back-to-back BCS championships. The Sooners are 3-2 in the Big 12 and 5-1 to win the national title.


Both Florida and Oklahoma have Heisman Trophy quarterbacks at their disposal. Tim Tebow (2007) is back for the Gators; he already has two BCS titles under his belt, and Florida?s underappreciated defense is potent enough to make it three. Sam Bradford (2008) gets to play for an outstanding football program, but his offensive line isn?t nearly as strong as Tebow?s after losing tackle Phil Loadholt (Minnesota Vikings) and three others from last year?s starting unit.

The USC Trojans have been in title contention for most of this decade. In 2009, they?re tied with the Texas Longhorns for third-favorite status at 7-1 odds. USC has to replace QB Mark Sanchez (New York Jets), and it turned out to be freshman Matt Barkley winning the job over sophomore Aaron Corp and senior Mitch Mustain. Coach Phil Carroll and his staff are highly impressed with Barkley at this stage. He?s been through the spring practice, so Barkley will be more prepared than most freshmen going into the 2009 campaign. He?ll also get all the time he needs in the pocket playing behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in the nation.

The Longhorns could very well be the best of this elite foursome. Colt McCoy is one of the early favorites to win the 2009 Heisman at 3-1, behind Tebow at 2-1 and Bradford at 5-2. If Texas proves to be as good as it looks on paper, this year will be McCoy?s turn. He also plays behind a brick wall of linemen and has the luxury of throwing to talented receivers like Jordan Shipley, whose added work on special teams could prove to be the difference over Oklahoma in the Big 12.

Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC are the top four teams in the preseason rankings and in a class among themselves. The second tier features a pair of SEC heavyweights in the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (16-1) and the No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (45-1), with the Bulldogs available at a bargain price after losing QB Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) and RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) to the NFL. Like Barkley at USC, freshman Joe Cox has a stout offensive line in front of him, and running back is a relatively easy position to fill at the college level. We?ll get a much better idea of what Cox can do when Georgia faces the No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday night. This is a national broadcast on ABC, so we have live betting ready to go starting at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. The ?Pokes are 38-1 to win the national title and 5.5-point home favorites against the Bulldogs.

Of this year?s crop of mid-majors, the Mountain West trio of the Utah Utes, Texas Christian Horned Frogs, and BYU Cougars figures to be together at the top. But there doesn?t appear to be much betting value here after the three teams went a combined 34-5 last year. The Utes (8-3-1 ATS) and Frogs (8-4 ATS) were especially profitable; the Cougars (3-8 ATS) were not, but that leaves them room for a market rebound with QB Max Hall returning for his senior season. They start the 2009 campaign off as 22-point road dogs against the Sooners (Saturday, 7:00 p.m., ESPN). As long as the Cougars don?t pull off the upset on national cable, they should retain their relative anonymity and their mid-major betting value.

 

[Lumi]

OREGON 2008

2008 Results
Aug 30 - W vs. Washington, 44-10
Sep 6 - W vs. Utah State, 66-24
Sep 13 - W at Purdue, 32-26
Sep 20 - L vs. Boise State, 32-37
Sep 27 - W at Washington St, 63-14
Oct 4 - L at U-S-C, 10-44
Oct 11 - W vs. U-C-L-A, 31-24
Oct 25 - W at Arizona State, 54-20
Nov 1 - L at California, 16-26
Nov 8 - W vs. Stanford, 35-28
Nov 15 - W vs. Arizona, 55-45
Nov 29 - W at Oregon State, 65-38
Dec 30 - W vs. Oklahoma State, 42-31


BSU 2008

2008 Results

Aug 30 - W vs. Idaho State, 49-7
Sep 13 - W vs. Bowling Green, 20-7
Sep 20 - W at Oregon, 37-32
Oct 1 - W vs. Louisiana Tech, 38-3
Oct 11 - W at Southern Miss, 24-7
Oct 17 - W vs. Hawaii, 27-7
Oct 24 - W at San Jose St, 33-16
Nov 1 - W at New Mexico St, 49-0
Nov 8 - W vs. Utah State, 49-14
Nov 15 - W at Idaho, 45-10
Nov 22 - W at Nevada, 41-34
Nov 28 - W vs. Fresno State, 61-10
Dec 23 - L at T-C-U, 16-17

 

[Lumi]

Last Meeting Oregon Boise State
Date Away Home Tot Rus Pas Tot Rus Pas
9/20/08 BOIST 37 ORE 32 464 227 237 424 38 386

 

[Lumi]

Trends - No. 14 Oregon at No. 16 Boise State

ATS Trends

Oregon

Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. WAC.
Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Ducks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in September.
Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Ducks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on turf.
Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.


Boise State

Broncos are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
Broncos are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Broncos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-10.
Broncos are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.
Broncos are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.


OU Trends

Oregon
Over is 6-0 in Ducks last 6 vs. WAC.
Over is 6-1-1 in Ducks last 8 games on turf.
Under is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1-1 in Ducks last 6 non-conference games.
Over is 16-5-2 in Ducks last 23 games in September.
Over is 7-3-2 in Ducks last 12 games overall.


Boise State

Under is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 11-4 in Broncos last 15 non-conference games.
Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games in September.


Head to Head

No trends available.

 

[hedgehog]

nothing better than starting the season on the blue turf:00hour

 

[Lumi]

Cheerleaders on stipper poles ? :shrug:

 

[romanowski]

gonna be a great game

oregon has been bet down to 3.5/4

gl on your selection

 

[Lumi]

Can Boise State Go Unbeaten?

Can Boise State Go Unbeaten?

Can Boise State Go Unbeaten?


For the above question, we?ll find out very early if this is truly a possibility, when the 14th ranked Broncos host the 16th ranked Oregon Ducks. Boise State is unanimous choice to win the WAC this season and is the early season darling from the non-BCS schools to possibly pluck another BCS berth when the bids come out in December. Consider the track record of Boise State coming into the season.

Boise State has had three unbeaten regular seasons in the last five years and is 55-9 in all games since 2004. Faced with oddsmakers? numbers just begging the sports bettor to play the other side, the Broncos are 33-25-1 against the spread in that time period.

In games played on the ?Smurf Turf? blue carpet at Bronco Stadium, Boise State is 64-2 and 40-17 ATS the last decade, which includes 49 in a row during the regular season. Boise State returns a dozen starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who broke unto the scene last year as a freshman. In truth, coach Chris Peterson might have a team equal to or better than the 2006 squad (which was 13-0 and knocked off Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl) next season.

The Oregon Ducks are not to be taken for granted just because they have a new coach in Chip Kelly. With just ten returning starters from last year?s surprising 10-3 squad, the ranking appears a trifle inflated, however three components help justify the number.

Oregon might not average 41.9 points per game this upcoming season, however, will still have ample firepower with Jeremiah Masoli at the controls. The junior quarterback is far from classic passer, but he?s accurate and is powerful runner and is listed as All-Pac 10 QB in several preseason publications. Speaking of powerful, 240-pound LeGarrette Blount is one blunt object in the open field. The architect of this high-powered offense is coach Kelly, whose been the Oregon offense coordinator. The Ducks are 27-5 ATS in first road game, including covering nine of last 10.

Bookmaker.com has Boise State listed as 3.5-point home favorite, down from opening number of 5.5, with total having risen to 64. We checked in Rocky Atkinson of RocketmanSports.com to get is opinion on this anticipated contest and Boise State?s chances of going unscathed during the regular season.

?I feel like Boise State will get by Oregon at home and cover the number. Boise State is incredible at home with 66-6 SU record and 42-18 ATS since 1992. Last year the Broncos beat opponents by an average of 40.7 to 8 at home. Chris Peterson is in his 4th year as head coach of Boise State and has led them to a 35-4 overall record. Boise State wins this one.
I would also consider the total; with Oregon is 7-0 to the Over when playing WAC opponents.

As far as Boise State going undefeated this year, I'm going to have to say no. They should have a tough time when they play in Fresno State but I think they will actually win that one in a nail-biter. The one game I see them losing will be when they travel to Tulsa on October 14th. Tulsa was undefeated at home last season and will give Boise all they can handle and then some.?

This is the second game on ESPN Thursday night, which will start at 10:15 Eastern and Oregon has revenge on their minds after last year?s 37-32 home upset as 10.5-point favorites to the Broncos. Masoli told a Eugene television station during the offseason that the loss was ?embarrassing? and that this year he and his team would ?take it to (Boise State).?

Boise State?s first test could set the tone for 2009 campaign.

 

[Lumi]

Oregon's Offense V. Boise State's Defense

Oregon's Offense V. Boise State's Defense

Oregon's Offense V. Boise State's Defense


Oregon's two-deep is out and there aren't a ton of surprises. Carson York gets the start on the offensive line though. Good for him. An Idaho native, he'll get to show his stuff in front of his hometown fans right away. York's a red shirt freshman with a world of talent who has worked really hard for 14 months straight. I'm excited to see him in action.

Oregon's going to spread out the Broncos and then try to run Blount and James right at them. Like Oregon, Boise State has younger defensive linemen up front. They've got some size though, and Oregon's also young on the offensive line. Whoever wins these battles is going to have a big upper hand. In this game, it might even be more of a factor than normal because all four lines have more than one unproven young player.
One guy who'll be ready is Billy Winn. Winn was recruited by a ton of schools in the West and has developed quickly into a guy who might be a run stopping force. Boise State has talent and size at the defensive tackle spot, they're just not experienced upperclassmen.

The Jordan Holmes v. Chase Baker matchup right up front will be interesting. With Holmes trying to get the snap off in a hostile, screaming environment he's got a 300lb. tackle in front of him. Unger made it a science. Holmes needs to do a lot, at night, in a crazy situation.

Obviously, if Oregon opens holes and Blount can get to the second tier of the defense Oregon's in tremendous shape. The Broncos have a good secondary and linebackers, but Blount is almost 240lbs. of NFL caliber running back. Few teams in the nation can contain him without multiple tacklers once he gets through the hole.

In James they have a great back. He's got more top end speed than JJ did but remember, he hasn't played in a real game for two years now after red shirting. Practice is great but it's different, so we'll see how quickly he shakes off he rust. I think you're going to love what you see though. Quick as can be and pretty fearless. Also not a guy who dances as some do at his size. He's a guy who hits the holes and goes.

If they're able to get Oregon into third down situations and a few three and outs, the momentum shifts tremendously to the Broncos. Oregon's offense is all about rhythm and momentum. They play at a hurry-up pace and it forces the defense to get right back on the field either way. Going out there without points on the board puts even more pressure on an unrested Ducks defense.

Boise State will have two 5' 10" corners led by senior Kyle Wilson. He's a terrific corner but look for the Ducks to exploit the size advantage that starters Jamere Holland, Maehl and Embry will have. And because Oregon plays three wideouts most of the time, the Broncos will be forced to use their first backup to cover someone like Embry.

I also look for Ed Dickson to have a shot at a very good day. With all the movement and shifting the Ducks offense does, it puts a lot of pressure on linebackers to pick up assignments instantly and when they don't, guys like Dickson slip free. Veteran quarterbacks like Masoli see that and it'll be interesting to see if that storyline develops during the game.

I think it may happen a bunch because the Broncos only have one senior starter on defense. Everyone else is at best a junior and there are a lot of sophomores.

Unlike other teams all year, Boise State has had the luxury of using camp time to prepare for the spread, and they've seen it before last year. Although, they didn't see it for long or played as well as Masoli can at his best. Still, the Broncos are so well coached, you know they've taken advantage of have more than a week to prepare for this game as it's first on the schedule.

Prediction: Oregon moves the ball and scores points in spurts. I doubt Oregon will spend the game marching up and down the field as they did in the second half of last year's Holiday Bowl. Fumbles, bad snaps, and turnovers on the road are a killer. Oregon needs to protect the football to succeed here. They need to let the offense do what it's capable of and not help the Boise State defense by making mistakes. Lots of new players on the line and at receiver mean there will probably be some false starts, motion penalties, not enough men on the line of scrimmage stuff, etc. Oregon's offense is complicated but they need to minimize that or it'll be costly.

Look for Oregon to run the option behind Thran early on. They've got Blount and I expect the Broncos will see a full dose of that run game until the Broncos prove they can stop it.

 

[Lumi]

Boise State's Offense v. Oregon's Defense

Boise State's Offense v. Oregon's Defense

Boise State's Offense v. Oregon's Defense

A young offensive line for Boise State against a young defensive front for the Ducks. Yes, Oregon will play Montgomery and Zac Clark and they'll have Rowe and Tukuafu onthe edge. But this isn't JC football, it's the big stage. Stuffing the run is always a Nick Aliotti priority, even if it means leaving his corners to fend for themselves. I don't think this game will be any different. What may be different for Oregon is that they're bringing the best set of linebackers they've had since probably the Fiesta Bowl almost a decade ago. Paysinger, Matthews, Pleasant and Littlejohn are big, fast, and with the exception of LIttlejohn, very experienced at this level. Oregon's likely going to have to lean on them to help stuff the middle.

The most exciting matchup of the day might be out wide where Titus Young is going to see Walter Thurmond III walk up and cover him all night. Young is terrific, Thurmond is too. If Thurmond can keep Young in check, Oregon might have a great night. If not, Oregon had better score a ton of points.

Last year the Ducks were torched repeatedly by the play-action-pass. If this happens again it's clearly on the players. It's like OSU running the fly sweep for 4 years and expecting someone to be fooled by it, last year, the Ducks were waiting for it. Here's hoping the same is true of Moore's ability to play fake with the ball this year.

Another key matchup looks like Will Tukuafu or Kenny Rowe lining up at defensive line against redshirt freshman right tackle Michael Ames. Ames has the size to play the spot, and he's talented, but he's a freshman who'll be seeing his first real game action in two years. Meanwhile, Tukuafu is going to the NFL next year, and Rowe might turn into a NFL linebacker someday. Another point to remember here is, Kellen Moore is lefthanded. The right tackle protects his blind side. Oregon could do some serious damage with this match-up if it goes well for them. Expect them to try to exploit that, and expect Boise State to try to exploit it if the defensive end gets too aggressive with the pass rush. If Ames can play well and they don't have to double-team Rowe or Tukuafu, Boise State's chances go way up in my opinion.

On the Oregon side, Simi Toeaina has a chance to finally make a mark. He's risen up and now as a fifth-year senior he may be ready to get it done. If so, Oregon's defensive line just solved a big problem. Look for Clark, Ferras, Toeaina, Montgomery and Blair to play most of the snaps in the middle on Thursday.

Moore is talented, makes great decisions and he's going to have a lot of confidence coming into this one. And he should, he's earned it. At running back they've got Jeremy Avery at tailback. He's strong and quick and will run without hesitation. He's a junior with great games already behind him. Leading the way for him is a guy who might be Oregon's biggest problem in stopping them, senior Richie Brockel.

Brockel will line up at tight end and occasionally in front of Avery. And at 6' 2", 240lbs. he's a terrific player and very experienced. Oregon needs a great performance from the linebackers to keep him in check, to shed his blocks, and to deal with Avery.

Who starts at the Rover spot for Oregon? Coach Neal wouldnt' tip his hand in this interview but did say the difference is that Marvin Johnson is a hammer. He's a rock. 210lbs. And Talmadge is good enough to play either corner or Rover for the Ducks.

Coach Neal also said that he thinks they're both good enough to start and they've been around the program long enough to play well. And he noted that quite often the defense will line its best corner up on the right hand side with a right handed quarterback because that's the throwing side looked at most easily by quarterbacks. But this week, with Moore being left handed they may line their best up over there. I'm assuming he means Thurmond of course. Neal says it's Glasper's time to shine after playing behind two great corners. Asked if Glasper is 100% healthy right now, Coach Neal said he was. Sounds like Glasper, Thurmond, Ward and either Marvin Johnson or Jackson is the starting secondary. Unmentioned was Javes Lewis who has emerged and played well. He'll play a bunch on Thursday and based on matchups and need, may even play more than one of the other players noted before.

Prediction: The Broncos will move the ball and score some points. They're at home and that'll help their young offensive line feel more comfortable than they would on the road. Boise State has to control Tukuafu or Rowe off the end, Oregon needs defensive tackles and Matthews and the other linebackers to play well in the run game. Thurmond could take away Young but it should be a good matchup.

I look for Spencer Paysinger to have a good game. Mostly because he's got the size and speed to accomplish a lot of things and he's become a force now that he's playing in this defense without having to think about assignments too much. As the defense came more naturally to him last year, he became more and more of a play maker. He's one player that doesn't get a ton of press that I think he could have a nice game on Thursday.

 

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Special Teams, Intangibles

Special Teams, Intangibles

Special Teams, Intangibles

Much has been made of the 54-2 record by the Broncos on the Smurf Turf since 1999. They can only beat who they play and they've beaten basically everyone. Losing only to Washington State in 2001 and Boston College in 2005 in the MPC Computers Bowl. I don't think anyone believes they'd have that record playing the Pac 10 record but, they can only beat who they play and again, they don't lose there. We're also not talking about what they would do, we're talking about what they'll do in one game, that they've had all year to prepare for. Home field advantage: Boise State.

The kicking game will be interesting to say the least. They'll use Morgan Flint who was solid last year as a freshman. BSU brings two juniors to the game who are both proven as a punter and kicker. Kyle Brotzman is on the Lou Groza watch list and will be solid.

The wild cards are Oregon's new punter, new kickoff specialist in Rob Beard, and a new long snapper in Michael Clay. Clay's a true freshman who was picked for a lot of reasons. One of them is how mobile he is as a linebacker in coverage. Fair enough, but watch for snaps that go awry, that could derail the entire night.

Oregon's going to have athletes everywhere on special teams with the good linebacking recruiting they've had. Depth will do that for you. I'll give the edge on coverage teams to the Ducks if they can keep their emotions in check, avoid penalties and over-running the play.

Jackson Rice is going to show people something as a punter. Let's hope he does it right away. Scares the hell out of me that a true freshman punter will be awaiting the snap from a true freshman long snapper. if the snaps go well, Rice should be solid. If he's not its jitters because he's got a great leg. Might be the most talented punter Oregon's had since Jose Arroyo or Josh Bidwell.

Kicking game, coverage teams: Even

Oregon's return men wil be Kejon Barner on the punts and most likely Walter Thurmond on the kickoffs. Both can take it to the house and Oregon could make some waves if they get some blocks on those. Barner's inexperienced so he needs to be the sure hands guy first and again, play within himself early.

Boise State will offer up Titus Young and Kyle Wilson to return kicks. Both are explosive as well.

Return men: Even

Overall the home field alone and Oregon's new punter, center, and long snapper give the intangibles edge to the Broncos. But Oregon has enough play makers to tip this in their favor if they get a turnover or a long return by one of their guys. If it's close late, I favor Boise State's experienced kickers.

As usual, the special teams could determine the game and there's not a lot of talk about it.

 

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Okay, Boise State. Here We Go.

Okay, Boise State. Here We Go.

Okay, Boise State. Here We Go.

And now on to football.

Setting aside the rhetoric and trash talking for a bit, Boise State is a helluva football program. They don't lose in Boise, ask Oregon State. They find players that other programs would take, if only they had a little more room, use the fuel of their being told they weren't quite good enough, give them great coaching, and turn them loose. Boise State has become what everyone thought Fresno State would become years ago.

They've taken the work of Dirk Koetter and built on it with Dan Hawkins. Hawkins was smart enough to hire Chris Peterson, and Peterson hasn't backed down at all. I remember watching Ryan Clady blow Oklahoma off the line in th Fiesta bowl and thinking, they're not just playing with the Sooners, they're better than them on every other play. When they got the commitment of their wide receiver Jeremy Childs I thought, these guys might be turning a corner here on the recruiting front. Boise is a great town. They have tremendous fans and the program is legit. Would it compete at the top of other BCS conferences? Maybe. They'd have greater recruiting leverage for sure. But then, they'd also have to play 6 legitimate conference opponents every year. By and large, this game on Thursday is the season for the Broncos. They should win all the others. They're just much better than all those other teams and they'll be favored. For Oregon, it's one of maybe 5 top 25 teams they'll face this yea. (Boise State, Utah, USC, Cal, and OSU).

Boise State can only win the games they can schedule. They're in a league that they're better than. Everything else about how good they would be if they were in a major conference is just conjecture.

The last thing I'll say about Boise State's situation is this. They beat the Ducks fair and square last year. I was there. Oregon should've had another quarterback ready. BEllotti could've gone to Thomas earlier in the game. Why didn't he? Well, he was scorned for burning Dixon's redshirt for a few plays in Norman. Knowing how and when to pull a kid's redshirt for the good of the team wasn't Coach Bellotti's greatest strength in my opinion. Just my opinion. Watching Chip Kelly frustrated as Chris Harper couldn't see open receivers for two quarters told me the Ducks weren't ready for that adversity. They should've been.

Still, cheap shots continued from Boise State. The second late hit that caused an ejection pointed to players that may have been out to just injure. Maybe. Because if he was intentionally trying to hurt Oregon's receiver, then the game is irrelevant. If so, then Oregon's players might immediately take retribution by going after Kellen Moore's knee on a late hit Thursday. Opening play, "Oh, I'm sorry." I don't think Boise State's staff wants that to happen. Oregon's coaches won't allow it from the Ducks. Now it's up to Boise State, and both sides really, to play with pride, but also with a little bit of honor.

What you can expect is that flags will be flying early. A flinch is five yards. Someone gets out of line and they're flagged immediately. The referees will know the history.

Next up: A breakdown of the game itself.

 

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Oregon-Boise State gameday preview: Can Ducks keep their cool?

Oregon-Boise State gameday preview: Can Ducks keep their cool?

Oregon-Boise State gameday preview: Can Ducks keep their cool?

EUGENE - Thursday night's game, like the weeks leading up to it, will be all about emotion.

Can the 16th-ranked Oregon Ducks use their desire for revenge to their advantage? More to the point, can Jeremiah Masoli, the cool quarterback that he is, keep that cool in a noisy, crazy blue house with a nation watching?

Kellen Moore, who quarterbacks No. 14 Boise State, plays beyond his years and seemed impervious to the Autzen Stadium crazies last season.

"(Moore) always knows where to go with the ball, he throws a real catchable ball," Oregon coach Chip Kelly said. "He's one of, in my opinion, the top quarterbacks in the country."

Kelly would put Masoli in that group, too. His quarterback opened the offseason Boise State smack talk by saying, "This year we'll take it to them." That was about as close to Namathian bravado as Masoli gets, and he insists he holds no grudges after a late hit gave him a concussion on his first pass of last year's game and he couldn't finish the first quarter.

This is a far different Masoli than the version a year ago -- even before the concussion.

"He's a master of that offense, there's no question about that," Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. "He's the whole package."

The key for Oregon, for this game and beyond, is will Masoli pick up where he left off last season, when he scored 14 touchdowns and threw one interception in his final four games? The Ducks won all four of those games, averaging 49 points a game, and -- like most offenses -- as the quarterback goes, so go the Ducks.

"As you watched our offense evolve last season, it was really because of his maturation," Kelly said.

Mark Helfrich, Oregon's new quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator, said that maturation has reached a level where Masoli can not only read the defensive scheme on an option play but also check off to another play, adding yet another dimension to Oregon's offense.

But can Masoli do that against a defense designed to neutralize the spread-option and in such a loud, strange environment? The Ducks have been blaring music out of the Autzen Stadium speakers all week trying to prepare for the noise, which figures to be only greater with the 7:15 p.m. kickoff.

With all day in their Boise hotel to think about last year's game and the task at hand, the Ducks' emotions will be running high, and they must find a way to bottle it and pop the lid off when the season starts. And Masoli must forget what he remembers of last year's game, forget the Sports Illustrated covers and forget the budding Heisman hype.

Only then can he recapture his late-season form. And the Ducks will need it to win.

 

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No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise State

No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise State

No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise State
When: 7:15 p.m. Sept. 3
Where: Boise
TV: ESPN

Ducks to watch
83 TE Ed Dickson: He's been ready ever since he popped up after Jeron Johnson's late hit last year. Dickson caught two fourth-quarter touchdown passes in that game, his best of the season (7 catches, 103 yards). If there is a knock on Dickson as an NFL tight end, it's that his blocking could be more forceful. That probably won't be a concern in Boise.

21 RB LaMichael James: Oregon fans know what LeGarrette Blount can do -- so do the Broncos after Blount ran for 99 yards on 18 carries against them last season. But nobody has seen the speedy, shifty James in a college game. The redshirt freshman will see the field quite a bit, either at running back or as a slot receiver.



Broncos to watch

27 RB Jeremy Avery: What? No Ian Johnson? The longtime Broncos rushing leader is gone, and the job goes to Avery and D.J. Harper. Both have experience; Avery has amassed 1,311 yards the past two seasons while running in Johnson's shadow. Oregon's inexperienced defensive line could open some gaps -- is Avery good enough to make the Ducks pay?

17 LB Winston Venable: He's the "5" in BSU's 4-2-5 defense. Venable, a junior college transfer and brother of San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable, has won the starting spot at nickel, although he will share time. Not only is that a key position in this defense, but it's Ellis Powers' old spot. Powers, you might remember, made an impact in last year's game.

About Boise State
The Broncos can't play their way out of the Western Athletic Conference, but the rest of the WAC probably wouldn't mind if they did. In the past 10 years, Boise State has ...
A 70-5 record in the conference, 108-20 overall, 64-2 at home, eight 10-win seasons and three undefeated ones. The high point was a 43-42 win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, which captured the imagination of the college football world because of its David vs. Goliath nature and the creativity with which the Broncos pulled the upset.

Boise State has perhaps the most unpredictable special teams unit in the nation, rolling out a new trick play seemingly on a weekly basis. Its offense is predicated on confusing the defense, to catch the opponent in a poor matchup, and the defense is the modern 4-2-5 alignment built to stop the kind of spread offense Oregon uses. The Broncos even hand out a sledgehammer, a la Mike Bellotti's, to reward toughness.

 

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Unique atmosphere, great stakes await as Boise State welcomes Oregon

Unique atmosphere, great stakes await as Boise State welcomes Oregon

Unique atmosphere, great stakes await as Boise State welcomes Oregon

Even Mr. One Game at a Time . . . Mr. This Week's Game is the Most Important Game . . . Mr. Hear No Hype, See No Hype . . . Mr. We're Only Focused on Ourselves . . . understands that this game is different.

No. 14 Boise State. No. 16 Oregon. Two Bowl Championship Series dreamers. One winner.

A Bronco Stadium record crowd. An unofficial, but undisputed, school record for preseason/pregame buzz. A massive media contingent (by Boise standards, anyway) that will report this result in so many places that your long-lost cousin's dog will know who won.

"It's like a bowl game, like starting out with a

bowl game," said Boise State coach Chris Petersen, the aforementioned ignorer of hype. "... It's exciting. I don't think we've ever had this much buzz generated by a team coming in here."

Nor so much emphasis on what one win could do.

College football experts across the country have predicted the Broncos will go 13-0 and play in a BCS bowl if they beat Oregon.

Other experts say the Ducks might challenge for the national title - and certainly for the Rose Bowl - if they win.

And hey, it's just the first day of the season.

ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit is among those who think the Broncos are playing for much more than a single win Thursday night.

"It's amazing to think we're just in week one and they potentially could be playing for the opportunity to maybe make it to the BCS," said Herbstreit, who has predicted on the air that the Broncos will do just that.

The Broncos would be long shots to reach the BCS if they lose because they likely won't face another ranked team this season. They used a home win against Oregon State in 2006 as a springboard to the Fiesta Bowl.

"I don't know if it will change the season," Boise State senior cornerback Kyle Wilson said of the opener. "It will definitely open up some eyes. ... I just can't wait to be a part of it."

The Ducks have a little more leeway. They can play their way into the Rose Bowl regardless of what they do during the non-conference schedule. But a win over the Broncos is essential if they want to reach the title game or qualify for an at-large BCS berth.

"This game is going to set the tone for both teams," Oregon senior safety T.J. Ward said. "Whoever loses, it's going to be hard to rebound. For us, we have a couple more opportunities than them to rebound."

But the Ducks won't get another chance for revenge. The Broncos beat them 37-32 last year in Eugene - the Ducks' first home loss to a non-BCS team in 14 years. And along the way, the Broncos delivered a couple late hits that have inspired the Ducks during their preparations for 2009.

"There will be fireworks," Oregon senior tight end Ed Dickson said. "Definitely."

An expectant nation will be watching on ESPN. The media already has labeled this one of the can't-miss games of the year.

Oregon coach Chip Kelly won't argue.

"These are the games," he said, "that you dream about playing."

 

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Several Ducks starters from Idaho

Several Ducks starters from Idaho

Several Ducks starters from Idaho

You could probably win a bar bet with this one. Oregon expects to start more players from Idaho than both teams combined expect to start from Oregon.
The Ducks plan to start Carson York (Coeur d'Alene) at left guard, Mark Asper (Idaho Falls) at right guard and Brandon Bair (St. Anthony) at defensive tackle. They're among five Idahoans on the roster.

Only two Oregonians are slated to start in the game, both for the Ducks.

"It's nice that the Pac-10 is venturing into Idaho a little more and giving Idaho players more of a chance," York said.

The Broncos list four Idahoans as starters and six more as backups for the opener. They could have had more if the Ducks weren't raiding the corners of the state.

"You hate to see good players that are in your state leave, but everybody's got their own agenda," BSU coach Chris Petersen said.

Oregon will become the third team from a BCS conference to play BSU in a regular-season game in Boise. Oregon State (three appearances) and Washington State (two) are the others.

BSU athletic director Gene Bleymaier said the best way to get a home-and-home with a BCS school is to find one that's desperate for a game.

"We're hopeful as time goes on we'll be able to get more and more of these games," he said. "It's a timing thing. You have to hit it just right. You have to line up the dates. You have to line up the willingness. A lot of teams don't want to come and play us on the blue."

Oregon State is scheduled to return in 2010. Bleymaier hopes Oregon will sign another home-and-home, too, but he hasn't had that conversation with new athletic director Mike Bellotti yet.

Bellotti told the Idaho Statesman he would consider another series.

The addition of 1,500 bleacher seats in the south end zone of Bronco Stadium should provide a preview of what that end of the stadium will be like when it eventually is closed with a permanent addition.

The new seats could create problems for opposing offenses backed up to the goal line or trying to score.

"Those people screaming and yelling and hitting those mats - that's going to add a lot of noise," defensive end Ryan Winterswyk said.

Petersen earned the first half of his longevity bonus Aug. 1. He gets $250,000 in deferred compensation. He'll get another $250,000 if he completes the five-year contract, which runs through January 2012. Petersen's base salary for 2009 is $1,112,650.

Bronco Stadium's 1-year-old press box will be packed. About 75 Oregon-based media members and nine national media members have requested credentials - about 60-65 more out-of-state requests than normal.

 

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What will we learn from Boise State's first game?

What will we learn from Boise State's first game?

What will we learn from Boise State's first game?
- Idaho Statesman
Statesman sports editor Mike Prater is a Harris Poll voter and a Heisman Trophy voter. Columnist Brian Murphy will cover the Broncos throughout the 2009 season. Each week, they'll debate a different topic in our Bronco GameDay sections.
Today: What are the biggest questions about BSU that need to be answered?

Prater: The defensive line is a curious mystery, especially with three sophomores in the starting lineup (Billy Winn, Chase Baker and Jarrell Root). Baker and Winn emerged as reliable forces in the middle last season, and the upside for Root on the outside is huge, but he didn't finish the season last year because of a broken leg. Coaches want a steady rotation of players - like lines in hockey. There is good depth on the outside, but the inside is a different story. We'll learn a ton against Oregon's fast-paced spread offense.

Murphy: The rushing attack must be better than it was a year ago. For all the talk about Boise State being a finesse/trick offense, the Broncos have been a dominant running team throughout its WAC years. Last season, however, Boise State finished fourth in the league and 54th nationally in rushing offense. The lack of clock-chewing drives nearly cost it against Oregon and Nevada and played a large role in the loss to TCU.

Prater: Playmaker Titus Young will change Boise State's offense - that is a given - and Austin Pettis is as dependable as they come. Then what? Tyler Shoemaker was outstanding in camp this fall, but he has seven college catches to his credit. Depth is a concern. Which true freshman will work his way into the lineup?

Murphy: Kyle Brotzman impressed during a standout freshman season, then struggled last year. The Broncos won't play many games decided by a field goal. This could be one of them. BSU coaches have faith in the junior after a strong fall camp. Will he deliver if needed?

 

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Boise State's high hopes rest on knocking off Ducks

Boise State's high hopes rest on knocking off Ducks

Boise State's high hopes rest on knocking off Ducks

Nothing like facing a must-win game before college football season begins in earnest.
While the rest of the nation is celebrating College Colors Friday and eagerly anticipating the start of another season, Boise State's fans will be either celebrating the biggest victory in Bronco Stadium history or lamenting a season gone awry already.

Those are the stakes for Boise State against Oregon on Thursday night. The year pivots on this game's outcome. In that sense, it is a one-game season.

Win and the top of the pyramid is still in play.

Lose and the air quickly gets sucked out of this season - and the critics have more ammunition with which to blast the Broncos.

Sure, a one-loss Boise State team can reach the Bowl Championship Series.

And Rick Pitino could win Husband of the Year.

It's possible, but I wouldn't be willing to stake anything on it.

Such is the nature of Boise State's predicament in the college football world. Respected enough that respected analysts are predicting a 13-0 season and a BCS berth. Not respected enough to know if an undefeated season would even be enough to get them into the BCS.

And certainly not respected enough to withstand a loss to Oregon, no matter how talented the Ducks are. The same analysts predicting perfection will dismiss the Broncos as pretenders or, worse yet for the program, not discuss them at all.

The expectations have changed, for those inside the program, for its fans and for outside observers. It is the lasting legacy of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl victory against Oklahoma and the Broncos' decade of dominance in the WAC.

"It's strange to think about, but last year we went 12-1 and that's disappointing," senior tight end Richie Brockel said.

"We strive for perfection in everything we do."

That's because Boise State's goals require perfection - a standard few of college football's elite must actually measure up to. The last three national champs each had at least one loss.

Here's the irony (some would choose another term) of college football: Oregon could lose to Boise State and still reach the BCS, while an undefeated Bronco team could be shut out of one of the five most prestigious and highest-paying bowl games, as it was last season.

Boise State has no wiggle room. No margin for error. No second chance.

This is it.

Win and the path to the BCS becomes clear - not so much the walk in the park it's been made out to be, but certainly not like climbing Everest.

Win and climb the rankings. Win and the hype builds. Win and another set of doubters is converted. Maybe ESPN's Craig James will even put the Broncos in his top 25 next week.

Win and continue the quest for perfection.

Win or else the dream ends - before the season really begins.