Week 1

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Week 1 predictions

Perhaps you?ve heard: it?s the first week of college football. And that means you can finally start spending that morsel of your bankroll you?ve been clinging to since the end of basketball season.

Or, perhaps for those who?ve been unaffected by the new economy, it means it?s time to put a big number back in that cavernous account of yours and attack another season with blissful, misguided hope.

Normally I would be just like you. I would be hyperventilating over the first week of collegiate action. But this is no normal year.

Lately I am seeing some seriously disconcerting stuff that is making me question things. Foofy stuff. The kind of stuff that is making me think this isn?t your grandfather?s college football anymore.

Just this week, for example, Rich Rodriguez broke down crying ? crying! ? at the Big Ten coaches press conference all because a few sloth players accused him of working them too hard.

The only one of the accusers who is still playing who would identify himself was Toney Clemons, a receiver who transferred to Colorado. Yeah, that Colorado. The official party program of the West that has seen more rape allegations over the past 10 years than it has Big 12 North titles.

C?mon Rich, you don?t cry. You lash out.

Mike Gundy style. Gary Hawkins style. Go find your women?s basketball coach, Kevin Borseth, somewhere on campus and get a lesson from him on how to throw a tantrum if you have to.

Anything but cry. Keep that stuff in the powder room.

But that?s not all. No ladies, there?s more.

If you go to The Oregonian?s website, you can play a little game of dress up dolls with the Ducks? uniforms. You simply click the arrows to pick the colors and design of each part of the uniform and find out what goes best with Jeremiah Masoli?s eyes.

Did you know there are over 160 possible combinations? How special!

It gets worse.

Apparently the University of Central Florida is changing their tailgating policy this year to ban the consumption of alcohol on campus prior to 8 a.m. on game day when games are played after 6 p.m. When games are held before 6 p.m., you can?t start boozing on campus before noon.

Needless to say, the fans are outraged. Many are threatening to cancel their season tickets and pull their donations. There is even a Facebook group which has grown to about 1000 members.

Like these folks, I have never heard such lightweight nonsense in my life. More importantly, home-field advantage just lost about two points for UCF in the eyes of oddsmakers.

But perhaps the biggest hike-up-your-skirt issue of all comes from the slate of games itself this week. Out of 78 games, 37 of them are Division 1-A teams against D 1-AA teams. (I refuse to get into this FBS stuff.)

That means we won?t be able to bet on about half of this week?s action ? or watch it for that matter because I saw enough road kill on the side of the highway this summer to last me until Christmas.

And don?t even get me started about this pregame handshake deal that?s going to take place between opposing teams this weekend. I?ll throw up all over my keyboard if I get into that.
But I digress. We are degenerates and college football is our game. So without further delay, let?s move on to the picks and hope this season develops a little more testosterone once we get a few hits under our belts.

In case you?re new to Four-play, you can catch me every week throughout the season. If recent years are any indication, it?s pretty much a guarantee I?ll fall somewhere around .500 so don?t plan the early retirement just yet.

Oregon vs. Boise State (-3.5, 63.5)

So we know the Ducks are going to be pretty this year with yet another new uniform thrown into the mix. But I also happen to think they?re going to be pretty good.

I also have to give them a little respect for a schedule that is so tough, I would actually forgive coach Chip Kelly if he sobbed uncontrollably at his press conference this week.

It all begins for Oregon on the Blue Turf in Boise and Oregon is Duckin? pissed coming into this one. Besides losing a heartbreaker in Eugene to the Broncs last year, players felt the game was full of cheap shots.

And I?m not talking about the kind you get at the campus pub.

Pick: Oregon +3.5

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (-6.5, 38)

It?s always fun when a fishing trip becomes the biggest story of the biggest game of the first Saturday of the season, isn?t it?

Looks like the NCAA didn?t catch anything, so to speak, so Bama?s top two offensive threats - Julio Jones and Mark Ingram - will play for the Tide. If you need further reasons to take Bama, check out this great blog by Josh Nagel.

Pick: Bama

Colorado State vs. Colorado (-10.5, 54)

Have you heard Coach Hawkins? team motto for this season?

?Ten wins. No excuses.?

Colorado athletic director Mike Bohn is working on a motto of his own. It goes a little something like this: ?Hey Gary. You?re fired.?

Pick: Colorado State +10.5

Miami vs. Florida State (-5.5, 48)

Let?s just go ahead and stretch this column out until Monday, shall we? Call me a man-whore for page views if you must.

There are a bunch of reasons I like Miami here but let?s go with this one: the Noles haven?t decided on a starting place kicker yet. There?s a little phrase that begins with ?wide? and ends in ?right? that has to make FSU fans just a little nervous about that.

Pick: Miami +5.5

 

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College Cram Session: Getting off to a good start
Oddsmakers admit they're off. Sportsbooks admit they're vulnerable.

Welcome to the first two weeks of the schedule - the most wonderful time of the year to bet college football.

"It's a real craps-shoot these first two weeks," said Pete Korner, oddsmaker and owner of the Sports Club. "It's all opinion, yours against ours with no statistics to bear one or the other out. We?re going to be (and are) off on a few games"

Without any current stats to plug into their fancy computer programs, oddsmakers are forced to throw out September lines based on information from the same preseason publications we all read: Phil Steele, The Sporting News,

It won?t last long, but right now, we know just as much as the people setting the line.

That makes books sweat, especially knowing what happens at the beginning of every college football season.

?The sharp bettors come out betting heavy during the start of the season,? betED.com sportsbook manager Randy Scott said. ?Most books know it?s coming and usually put their guard up early.?

To combat this rush on early lines, books often lower limits, move lines rapidly without action and even restrict certain types of bets early in the season.

"Sportsbooks try their best to get through this period with as little damage as possible," Scott added.

How to take advantage

Expert Larry says the preseason polls could hold the secret to early success.

Larry points out that more than half (13) of last year?s preseason top 25 ended up unranked.

?Not only that, but six of those 13 teams ended up with losing records,? He added. ?Obviously, oddsmakers aren?t just looking at polls. But that doesn?t mean they don?t have an influence on them. If a team?s ranked 13th in the preseason poll, you don?t expect them to finish 5-7 for the season.?

Like oddsmakers, the members of the media and coaches who vote in the polls have no concrete information to decide where to rank teams in the preseason. They check out the number and talent of the returning starters, just like we all do. But after that, they?re stuck with a program?s reputation and results from last year.

That?s why a team like Michigan, which had obvious question marks entering last season, winds up ranked in the preseason polls.

Doyle, a betting analyst for Sports.com, says this type of undeserved hype for big-name programs can torment oddsmakers and be a gold mine for bettors.

For example, even if oddsmakers realized Michigan was going to struggle last year, Doyle says they couldn?t afford to throw out a number that might get hammered by the Wolverines? huge fan base.

Ranked teams that won?t finish that way

Over the last four years, approximately 40 percent of teams that were ranked in the preseason polls did not finish the season ranked.

Here are the eight teams in this year?s preseason polls that won?t be there in the end:

No. 9 Oklahoma State
No. 13 Georgia
No. 14 Boise State
No. 15 Georgia Tech
No. 16 Oregon
No. 18 Florida State
No. 19 Utah
No. 20 Brigham Young
No. 21 North Carolina

 

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College football's biggest quarterback concerns

College football's biggest quarterback concerns

College football's biggest quarterback concerns
The psychology of naming a starting quarterback is fascinating.

Some coaches do it as soon as possible, in some cases too soon. Others wait it out to ?keep the competition going all the way to kick off.? Take the coach speak out of that statement, and you?re left with neither quarterback has out-played the other one.

And there?s always the good old two-quarterback platoon. Other than Leak and Tebow, has that ever worked?

Either way, not having a solidified starter at the most important position is a major concern and something bettors need to know.

Here are five teams entering the season with question marks under center:

USC Trojans

Spin it however you want?and Pete Carroll has?but starting true freshman quarterback Matt Barkley shows at least a hint of desperation.

Reports from last week?s mock game have the 18-year-old Barkley looking comfortable, but only when there was not pressure applied from a scout defense comprised of third teamers and walk-ons.

"We've got to make it easy for him," Carroll told the Los Angeles Times. "We're already talking among ourselves that we have to be careful."

?Careful? doesn?t cover gigantic point spreads.

No matter how much Barkley has impressed the coaching staff, he still wasn?t able to beat out sophomore Aaron Corp, until Corp went down with a leg injury on August 10.

Notice how Carroll waited until Corp returned to practice, before naming Barkley the starter. Maybe it was out of respect for Corp, who admits he?s not 100 percent recovered from a cracked fibula. But it seems more likely that Carroll wasn?t won over by Barkley as quickly as he?d like fans to think.

Remember, Carroll, who always keeps his California cool, threw a little bit of a fit, when Mark Sanchez announced he was leaving early for the NFL. It was out of the character for one of the best in the business, who, perhaps, was a little concerned with what was left behind.

Boston College Eagles

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Eagles. After their projected starter was suspended and eventually transferred, new head coach Frank Spaziani was left without a quarterback with any college experience.

David Shinskie, a 25-year-old minor league baseball player, enrolled and instantly became the favorite to be the starter. But Shinskie broke a rib last week and has missed practice time.

He hasn?t been ruled out, but it seems unlikely that he?ll be able to shake off a broken rib in time face Northeastern in the season opener.

That leaves redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle and true freshman Michael Marscovetra as the remaining options. Spaziani said he?ll choose a starter after Tuesday?s practice.

But it hasn?t mattered who was at quarterback during preseason practice. The Eagles? offense has struggled mightily. They didn?t score a touchdown until the final play of their second scrimmage.

?The QB play leaves a lot to be desired,? Spaziani told reporters.

Washington State Cougars

It?s ugly in Pullman.

Cougar coach Paul Wulff is going with a two-quarterback platoon of senior Kevin Lopina and sophomore Marshall Lobbestael.

That?s the same duo that combined to throw four touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season.

Lopina was responsible for 11 of those picks and none of the touchdowns. He?ll get the start Saturday against Stanford (-17).

Michigan Wolverines

It?s been a rough stretch for Wolverine fans.

It began with the realization that freshman quarterback Tate Forcier isn?t as of now the second coming of Pat White.

Many thought Forcier was tailor-made to run coach Rick Rodriguez?s spread option attack and would instantly erase the memories of last year?s struggles. But he hasn?t done enough to separate himself from the pack.

Rodriguez plans on playing three quarterbacks - Forcier, senior Nick Sheridan and true freshman Denard Robinson - in Saturday?s opener against Western Michigan.

In addition to the QB concerns, there is an investigation into reports that Rodriguez is exceeding NCAA time limits on football ?related activities raise some big flags around Ann Arbor.

Michigan opened as a 13-point favorite against Western Michigan, but the line is dropping and down to as little as 11.5 at some books.

Utah Utes

Junior college transfer Terrance Cain has been receiving the majority of the snaps in practice, but coach Kyle Whittingham has refused to name him the starter.

On Monday, Whittingham said the decision has been made and the team had been informed, but no official announcement would be made before Thursday?s opener against Utah State.

Freshman Jordan Wynn was the No. 1 guy early in camp, but it appears Cain, the Junior College Player of the Year, overtook him during the final two weeks of camp.

It would be a surprise to most if Cain isn?t the first under center when the Utes (-20.5) host the Aggies, who are coached by former Utah defensive coordinator Greg Andersen.

Cain is a dual-threat quarterback, who right now is a better runner than passer.

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Syracuse and Rutgers also enter the season with quarterback issues

 

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Week One has plenty of intrigue

Week One has plenty of intrigue

Week One has plenty of intrigue

- The season has finally arrived, and while most teams dip their feet into the competitive waters, others jump in head- first, hoping not to drown.

While no one really needs to watch every snap in Gainesville this weekend to know what the result will be between defending national champion Florida and Charleston Southern, there will be some games that will capture the attention of college football fans around the country. With that in mind, here are five must-see games for the first week of the 2009 season.

(16) OREGON AT (14) BOISE STATE: The Broncos are one of those teams that have probably outgrown their natural surroundings. The WAC has been Boise State's playground for some time now and this year should be no different, as they are the favorite to win the conference again. Winners of 19 straight on their famed blue turf, the Broncos could gain some instant credibility on Thursday against a good Oregon team. The Ducks are coming off a 10-win season in 2008 and could be a real threat to end USC's incredible run of Pac-10 titles, despite breaking in a new head coach in Chip Kelly. Longtime coach Mike Bellotti made the move to athletic director this summer and who knows if his absence from the sideline will hinder Oregon's ascension to the top of the Pac-10 standings. These two teams met for the first time last season in Eugene and it was Boise State coming out on top in a spirited 37-32 affair. It remains to be seen if the Ducks can return the favor.

(13) GEORGIA at (9) OKLAHOMA STATE: The Bulldogs have not lost to the Cowboys in three previous meetings, but this could be the season that OSU breaks through with a win. The Cowboys are one of those teams that has created a buzz around the country. The team possesses a trio of All-Americans at the skill positions in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant and has the ability to score at will both on the ground and through the air, regardless of the defense. In Georgia, Oklahoma State will be facing a strong SEC foe with plenty to prove. The Bulldogs are usually considered a national title contender most seasons, but despite reaching double-digit victories in 2008 (10-3), they were never really in the hunt. That could change in the blink of an eye this weekend in Stillwater as knocking off a top-10 program on the road could very well be a springboard to a huge season in Athens.

(20) BYU VS. (3) OKLAHOMA: No team has more to prove in week one than BYU. The Mountain West has been clamoring for credibility for the last few seasons and although the conference may be deserving of respect, the Cougars find themselves with a tall task indeed, taking on the third-ranked Oklahoma Sooners. This is a neutral site affair in Arlington, but the Sooner Nation travels well and there is no doubt who will be the so-called "home team" in this one. BYU has a terrific quarterback in Max Hall and an explosive offense, but Oklahoma trumps that with their own superb gunslinger in Heisman-winner Sam Bradford. To make matters worse for the Cougars, Oklahoma is as dangerous a defensive squad as there is, with perhaps the nation's best defensive front. There will be some opportunities for Hall downfield, but will he be standing up when those opportunities present themselves? Respect is earned and BYU certainly has a golden opportunity to do just that this weekend.

(5) ALABAMA VS. (7) VIRGINIA TECH: The Crimson Tide ended the 2008 regular season as the top team in the country, but could not keep their lofty perch, losing to Florida in the SEC Title game and then to Utah in the Sugar Bowl. So, it is with a sense of unfinished business that Nick Saban and Alabama begin the 2009 campaign in Atlanta against seventh-ranked Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer's Hokies are poised for another big season in Blacksburg. The team won the ACC title in 2008 and is a favorite to win it again. Last season, the Crimson Tide embarrassed what was supposed to be the best the ACC had to offer in Clemson, catapulting the Tide to a truly remarkable campaign. Virginia Tech will try to avoid a similar fate, but is just 1-24 all-time against top-five foes. Still, with two of the nation's premier defenses on display, anything can happen.

MIAMI-FLORIDA AT (18) FLORIDA STATE: Week one will come to a close on Labor Day, when Florida State and Miami collide in Tallahassee. There is no need for further motivation when the Seminoles and Hurricanes get together on the gridiron. Bobby Bowden's squad is once again one of the favorites to win the ACC title and with good reason. The team has a veteran signal-caller in Chris Ponder and good balance with the run and the pass. The biggest key is the return of all five starters along the offensive line. It won't be easy for the Hurricanes in this one, but the team does possess a talented youngster under center in Jacory Harris and plenty of weapons at his disposal. While these two teams usually have stingy defenses, few people will forget last year's clash, a 41-39 shootout won by Florida State. This is the fourth time in the last six years that these two teams have opened up with one another and expecting the unexpected is usually a good rule of thumb in this series.