CFB '09 - Week 1

L

LA Burns

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2008 CFB:

Reg season +10.11 units
Bowl season +22.2 units

2007 CFB:

Reg season +35.5 units
Bowl season +12.6 units

2006 CFB:

Reg season +28.3 units
Bowl season - mentioned plays but attached no units - highlighted by easy BGOY win on USC over MICH in the Rose Bowl

________________________________________



As you can see not a big fan of monitoring w/l records as I'd rather be 1-99 and +$100 than 99-1 and down $100 - ml dogs and to a lesser extent parlays play key roles in my capping and wagering so unit tracking is what I'm most concerned with


Also, while it may seem like 2008 wasn't as productive a season as my 2006 and 2007 campaigns, it was actually my best - I changed the way I posted my units (raised $ amount played per unit by 2.5x) so by the old standard ly would have produced over 80 units - really trying to hone in on a money management system in CFB that works for me, and ly the biggest reg season play that I made was 3 units - did play some in the Bowl season for 5 and up to 6 units and did quite well - will keep the unit system the same this year, although I do anticipate moving to more of a flat bet system at some point in the future



Anyway, glad to be back and hungry for some football - will likely start out a bit slowly and ramp things up as the season progresses - have some def leans at this point but still studying a bit so will be back soon w/ week 1 plays



Until then, and as always, gl


LA Burns
 
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LA Burns

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booked 1 for thurs:


1 unit UNT +17 -120


looks like a pretty popular play and not excited about the fact that this one opened at 23 according to what I've read (checked coverz and the highest they showed it opening was 20, but from what I understand the original line was 23) - but, i think there's a reason this was hammered down to the current #


easy to say these are 2 teams heading in opposite directions as UNT has nowhere to go but up and the opposite is pretty much true for BSU, but it seems like with the late season losses ly and all of the off-season roster turnover the BSU program has lost a bit of its momentum - on the other hand, with HC Dodge at UNT getting some of his players into his system (namely his son, a big-time recruit who ran the same offense in high school) it seems like it's now or never for the mean green - not ready to say the MAC is heads and shoulders over the Sunbelt either - at the end of the day I just get the sense that this will be a competitive game




back with more, gl


LA Burns
 
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LA Burns

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sry for the late post, but adding:


1 unit BSU -3


not sure why so many are so high on this Duck squad - new HC, only 9 returning starters, and going on the road for the 1st game of the season against BSU? sounds like a tough spot to me

BSU only 11 starters back themselves but 3 on the OL vs Ore's 1, and the type of program that reloads as opposed to rebuilding - bad taste in their mouths I'm sure from the bowl game loss to TCU, think the broncs get past the Ducks and, due to a HORRENDOUS remaining schedule, likely run the table and start yacking about the BCS



as always, gl


LA Burns
 
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LA Burns

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adding for sat:


1 unit Ill / Mizzou over 60.5


limited returning starters for both d's, neither one of which was that strong to begin with - mizzou loses 7 def players who had some type of all b12 accolade on d!!!!!! - ill offense should have no problems moving behind juice, etc., but also think the Tiger "o" will have surprising success as well - pinkel's wide open offense should perform, even if late and down by multiple scores, as they will be run by a highly touted qb (Gabbert)who has a year under his belt waiting in the wings

not a big total player but if i was this might shape up as a bigger play



2 units Baylor ML +110



WF returns a bunch on "o" including entire offensive line, so that side of the ball should be ok, but only 4 returning on d, with top 5 tacklers having moved on to greener pastures - baylor returning 8 on offense, and 2 of the players lost are o lineman and it looks like Briles found a couple of high level jc's to plug those gaps - 8 back on d too, including a superior LB corp led by 1st team all b12 stud Pawelek - big addition to the DL w/ PSU transfer Phil Taylor who everyone seems to be gushing about - will give the special teams edge to Bears as well


BU goes into WF as a 2 point dog - ly they opened the season against WF at home as a 12 point dog and got killed - does that seem odd to anyone?


looking at 1 or 2 more, will be back if i add anything else


until then, and as always, good luck



LA Burns
 
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LA Burns

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oh, and AR, TP, and KOD.....




Are you ready for some mother fvcking football?!?!




Thanks for the well wishes and best of luck to you all as well


LA Burns
 
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LA Burns

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atcually, going to go ahead and add this one now while I can def grab 2 td's:


2 units LA Tech +14 -120


back tomorrow with a bit of analysis for this one



burns
 
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LA Burns

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a little on la tech / aub:


- tech returns all 9 starters from o and d lines

- tech continuity vs aub turnover in terms of staff, off and def schemes, etc.

- aub looks to be missing multiple starters at wr and in the def backfield



i like dooley and have no reason to believe that chizik will have this AU squad ready to hit on all cylinders - also think tech qb jenkins will be a much improved signal caller this year - think AU will be improved, but i think their best football may be a few weeks away



as always, gl to all no matter which sides you choose


LA Burns
 
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