NCAA Football Week 1

[Skipper]

Already had some writeups on Thursday nights games and will paste them later, but have one on my radar that I want to hit early.

5*
Nevada-ND over 61
I hate playing a big one this early, but I think that there are value plays early in the year and this is one of them. I love this game and wanted to get it in early cuz me thinks it gets above 63 by kickoff.

The Irish return 9 of 11 on offense and will open against a very weak Nevada pass defense. The Irish have to make a splash early in the year to get the hounds off of fatboys back and they can score and will against the Pack.

On the other hand, the Pack aren't too shabby themselves and QB Kaepernick is a handful both running and passing the football. Of Nevada's 12 games last year, only 2 stayed under the 61 point total and their games averaged 71. ND will be better defensively, but their D Line still blows and I think the Pack can score enough to push this one way over. Might hedge with the Irish, but I think we see a 49-28 type of game here gents.

Back later with mo!

 

[Skipper]

Last year - 134-104 - +10.6 units or +$1060

 

[bej0101]

like the over too..gl:00hour

 

[AR182]

Last year - 134-104 - +10.6 units or +$1060

very nice year skip....continued success....:mj06:

 

[Skipper]

2*
Cocks/Pack under 46
If you take the first four games in each of the last two seasons, So. Carolina's totals have not gone over 44. I know this is a new year, but I think this is going to be a very hard fought game and the team with the fewest mistakes is going to win. QB play for the Cocks is always interesting and I don't think this year will be any different. I am going to hit Carolina for either 1/2 or 1 unit, but will let the number climb a little more. It is as high as 5 at some places and just think NC St. has to show me before I buy in to this one.

Probably going to have a couple more small plays Thursday night, but nothing is jumping out at me. I hate it too, because I have nailed the first Thursday the past two years, but better to be safe than sorry.

 

[Skipper]

La Tech +14 (-120) at Auburn
Backing off - no play

 

[Skipper]

3*
Akron/Penn St. over 58-
Had this as a two star, but when I saw Spang had it as his big play, I upped it a bit. Hell, I might kick it up a little more by game time.

Penn St. plays a horrible non-conference schedule, but Akron could provide a little challenge based on the fact that they return 9 offensive starters from a team that averaged 30 points per game. Penn St. only returns five on the defensive side of the ball, so I am hoping Akron can get close to 20.

As for Penn St., Daryll Clark doesn't have that many starters back, but going up against Akron will provide little challenge. I see Penn St. getting at least 40, so if Akron gives us any help, we will nail this one. Hoping for a 49-21 or 49-17 type of game.

 

[Cie]

I have a feeling Auburn will be better than most think this season, but I like La Tech in week 1 for sure.

GL Skip:weed:

 

[Skipper]

2*
UConn/Ohio un 47
The loss of Donald Brown, probably the best player in program history, will make offense a tough go fot the Huskies this year. In fact, in their six road games last year, UConn averaged only 19 points per game. Take away the 39 at Cuse and then you are looking at mid-teens.

Ohio is always solid defensively and this year will be no different. In fact, some have them contending in the MAC, but finding points might be difficult. I like this game to be close with a score in the teens or first one to 20 wins.

 

[Skipper]

1*
Tennessee -29- vs West. KY
Yes, I am a UT fan, but this is not a homer play. In fact, I am not impressed by Kiffin's mouth and still cannot remember a coach that had to tell you how good he was before he proved it on the field.
HOWEVER...
after last year, fans and players are hungry and WKY is just awful. My strategy and thinking is that the Vols will either cover this one or UCLA before FLA. Kiffin knows they need to bear the hell out of someone before they get the hell beat out of them in Gainesville.

If they do not cover this one, I will double up against UCLA.

 

[Skipper]

1-0 +$200

South Carolina is going to be solid defensively AGAIN

South Carolina is going to be frustrating to watch offensively and special teams AGAIN

Spurrier is going to be very entertaining to watch on the sidelines AGAIN

S. Caro will probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-6, 8-5 AGAIN

NC St less than impressive. I wish I would have put more on SC straight up

 

[Skipper]

1-0 +$200

To consolidate my picks here for today. Will probably add more later as most of the ones I like are tonight.

Noon games
1* Vols -29- WINNAH:00hour
3* Akron/PSt. ov 58- :mj1: the one time JoPa doesn't lay the wood

Afternoon games
5* Nevada/Irish over 61 - got this one early in the week but like it up to 63 :mj1:


Night games
2* Uconn/Ohio un 47 :00hour

1/2 unit plays
Baylor +3 (-120) :00hour
UGA +6 :mj1:
MTSU/Clemson over 47 :00hour
EMU -3 (-120) :mj1:
Bama/VT un 37 :mj1: :mj1: :mj1:
UTEP -9 :mj1:
NEB -23 :00hour
ULM +42 :00hour
Navy/OSU ov 46- WINNAH:00hour
La. Tech +14 (-120) - had this as high as a two star, but am getting word that Auburn is better than most expect, so will take the wait and see approach :mj1:

 

[Nole]

Hi Skip. Vols got it done today! We'll know more about them when they play the Gators. Great call by you!

Hope all is well neighbor.


nole

 

[Skipper]

Nole - good to hear from you my friend. Hope all is well

Not under any illusions that this team will beat FLA or be great, but they will cover games, esp those where their opponents are inferior. I felt like this game would go that way, but it was just to hard to see that Crompton wouldn't vomit on his shoes like he did last year.

THink the Vols beat the hell out of the Bruins next week before the azz raping takes place in Gainesville

 

[BGFalcon]

3* Akron/PSt. ov 58- :mj1: the one time JoPa doesn't lay the wood

I'm guessing Paterno hasn't laid wood in a long time.

 

[Skipper]

I'm guessing Paterno hasn't laid wood in a long time.

Come on BG, he is a tripod. He is coaching simply as a hobby, his true job is joining the cast of HBO's "Hung" as a "happiness consultant"!!

 

[Skipper]

8-7 -4.1units or -$410

All came down to the big play and ND did their part. Nevada drove up and down the field on several occasions and either took a sack, missed a fg, or couldn't make it on 4th and 1.

Sumbiches:thefinger

Glad UCLA came back to cover. I am hoping the line next week is single digits cuz I think the Vols lay it to them. I am not a homer, look back thru the years and you will see that I bet against the Vols on many occasions, but they will beat UCLA and me thinks they cover. Will just wait for the line to come out.

Nevada will be fine. Hoping Vegas drops their totals for a couple of weeks.

I hate to say it, but ND is pretty good defensively. I could score against Nevada's defense, but was fairly impressed by ND.

ACC sucks as usual. Not here to conference bash either, but my goodness. Bill and Mary and RIchmond win at Virginia and Dook respectively? Maryland 52-13, really?

Okie St. looked good in beating UGA. D. Bryant is a freak and with Bradford out right now, could make it interesting. They get Texas at home?

By my calculations, unders won out yesterday somewhere in the neighborhood of 17-13. Just a fluke or are the totals going to be too high for a while?

Looking forward to week 2 and getting some back

 

[Skipper]

Gonna hit these two for a half unit each.

Memphis +17-
Memphis over 54

More college football baby:00hour

 

[BGFalcon]

I'm with you on Memphis +17.5.

 

[Skipper]

Tough start for us both BG. but like that you are on Memphis - you w column will rise quickly