Labor Day Plays

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Labor Day Plays

The Labor Day card around Major League Baseball involves a handful of aces, especially in the American League, taking the mound. Several of the daytime matchups feature teams in playoff contention that are trying to either sure up their position, or make up ground on other teams. In the Bronx, two division rivals get together for a long day of baseball.

Rays at Yankees (1:05 PM EST)

Tampa Bay and New York play a day-night doubleheader at Yankee Stadium, with the Bronx Bombers firmly in control of the AL East. Meanwhile, the defending AL Champion Rays need this series in the worst way to make up ground on the Red Sox in the Wild Card race.


AL Cy Young nominee CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48 ERA) is on fire, going 8-1 his last ten decisions. In this span, Sabathia has allowed five earned runs in his last four home outings, all Yankee victories. Interestingly with all the runs scored at the new Yankee Stadium this season, Sabathia's run support has been stronger on the road (6.29) than at home (5.08). The only down side to backing CC on Labor Day is his day numbers. The Yanks are just 4-7 in Sabathia's 11 starts under the sun, while the 'over' has hit eight times.

The Rays have had Sabathia's number this season, beating the lefty twice, scoring 11 runs off the ace in 13.2 innings.

Matt Garza's (7-9, 4.01 ERA) career numbers against New York are not pretty, as the Rays are 0-5 his last five starts versus the Bombers. Garza has been a solid 'under' play on the road, with Tampa Bay finishing 'under' the total in 11 of his 12 away starts. The Tampa Bay righty is just 1-3 in 11 starts since the beginning of July.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed the Yankees as a $1.75 home favorites, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00 on the 'under').

Red Sox at White Sox (2:05 PM EST)

Two aces that have struggled recently take the mound on the South Side of Chicago, as the White Sox and Red Sox conclude their four-game set.

Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.86 ERA) tossed a quality start his last time out against Minnesota, but left the game trailing, 2-0. The Sox bailed out Buehrle with a shocking four-run rally in the ninth against Twins' closer Joe Nathan to win, 4-2. Since his perfect game against the Rays at the end of July, the Sox lefty is 0-4 his last eight decisions, while putting up just three quality outings. The 'under' has turned into a solid play for Buehrle during the day, nailing it in 10 of 14 matinees at U.S. Cellular Field.

Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87 ERA) has not been on his typical "A" game the last four starts, allowing 24 earned runs, while hitting the 'over' in each outing. The long ball has also been a problem for Beckett, giving up 15 homers his last five trips to the hill. The tide could turn for the Boston ace on Monday, as Beckett is 4-0 in four career starts against Chicago, including three wins on the South Side.

LVSC has installed the Red Sox as a $1.30 road favorites, with the total set at 8 ? (Bet $1.25 to win $1.00 on the 'under').

Phillies at Astros (2:05 PM EST)

The Astros stumbled on their last road trip, going 2-7 against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Cubs. Houston has bounced back at home, taking the first three games of a four-game set against the NL East-leading Phillies.

J.A. Happ (10-4, 2.77 ERA) continues to churn out 'unders' at a tremendous pace, now drilling it in 12 consecutive starts. The Philadelphia southpaw has hit the 'under' in nine of 11 away outings, with no more than five combined runs scored in five of his last six road starts. Happ is coming off back-to-back losses against the Pirates and Giants, but has tossed a quality start in ten of his 11 road contests.

Brian Moehler (8-10, 5.11 ERA) went through a nice stretch from May into mid-July, as the Astros won ten of his 13 starts. Since July 26, Houston is 2-6 his last eight outings. Moehler has thrown over 100 pitches just once during this span, while going 1-2 at home. The 'under' is on a nice run with Moehler lately, hitting in four straight starts.

The Phillies are a $1.65 road 'chalk' according to LVSC, with the total set at 9 (Bet $1.15 to win $1.00 on the 'under').

What else to watch for:

-- Cardinals' ace Chris Carpenter goes for his 16th win of the season, as St. Louis and Milwaukee open up a three-game set at Miller Park (2:05 PM EST). The Redbirds are 28-9 since July 27, while Carpenter is on track to win his second Cy Young Award.

-- Brad Penny makes his Giants' home debut against the Padres (4:05 PM EST). Penny was masterful in his initial start with San Francisco, shutting out Philadelphia, 4-0. The home team is 11-1 in the series this season, while the 'under' has been cashed in six of the last eight meetings.

-- In the second game of the doubleheader in the Bronx between the Rays and Yankees, Andy Sonnanstine and A.J. Burnett take the hill (7:05 PM EST). Tampa Bay is 2-7 is Sonnanstine's nine road starts, while Burnett has seen the 'under' been drilled in 10 of 13 home outings.
 

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Monday's best MLB bets

Monday's best MLB bets

Monday's best MLB bets

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-230, 10)

The Rays are done.

Tampa Bay arrives at Yankee Stadium having lost four in a row, including Sunday's 5-3 setback to Detroit where it used five relievers in a four-run ninth and wasted a sparkling major league debut by Wade Davis. It was the second straight game in which Tampa Bay blew a late lead.

"When you have leads and when you can't hold leads late, that's the part of the game that's most difficult to endure," manager Joe Maddon told the team's web site.

The Rays are 6 1-2 games behind Boston for the American league wild card - seven in the loss column - and begin a stretch of 11 games on the road, where they are just 29-38 this season.

Matt Garza starts the nightcap of a day-night doubleheader. His current stretch of seven starts without a win began with a loss to the Yankees on July 29.

Pick: New York

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (-250, 9.5)

It doesn't matter where Ubaldo Jimenez pitches, or whom he faces. He knows how to keep the score down.

One of the better pitchers in the National League this season, Jimenez has made seven consecutive starts in which the total was under.

In his last seven starts - four on the road and three at home - Jimenez is 6-1. He has worked at least 6 2-3 innings and allowed no more than two runs in each of those outings, while the total has not climbed above eight.

Jimenez hasn't exactly been matched up with aces, either. Some of the guys he has faced were Tim Redding, Craig Stammen, Kevin Hart and Sean Marshall.

He also has made two starts against San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum, with the totals coming in below 8.0 in the first matchup and under 6.5 in the second meeting.

Pick: Under
 

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Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking

CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48 ERA), New York Yankees

CC Sabathia is showing Yankees fans why he was worth the millions of dollars New York paid to get him. The Yanks are 9-1 in the big lefty?s last 10 starts, including last week?s 10-2 'W' over the Orioles.

?I?ve been saying it for a long time, I?ll take a World Series trophy over a Cy Young any day,? Sabathia told Newday after allowing one run and striking out nine against the Orioles. ?That?s my goal, to win a World Series.?

If you think the price is too steep to back the Yanks Monday, consider the runline. The Bronx Bombers have covered the number in seven straight Sabathia starts.

Brian Moehler (8-10, 5.11), Houston Astros

Value hunters pay attention to this journeyman righty. The 37-year-old big league vet has strung together three consecutive impressive starts for the Astros. Although he came up on the losing end of Tuesday?s 4-1 setback to the Cubs, Moehler gave his club a good chance for the win.

?I thought [Moehler] deserved a better fate,? Houston manager Cecil Cooper told the club?s web site. ?I thought he threw the ball well, hit his spots well and moved the ball around. He did a good job.?

The Astros are still 2-1 in Moehler?s last three appearances. The under is 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound.

Slumping

Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87), Boston Red Sox

We took some slack for not including Beckett in the slumping section in his last start and the criticism was validated soon afterwards.

The former World Series MVP went six innings and struck out nine without issuing a walk, but the long ball was the big story again. Beckett was tagged for four earned runs along with two solo bombs.

It marked the fifth straight start that the righty allowed multiple homers. Opposing batters have taken Beckett out of the park 14 times over his last 26 1-3 innings pitched.

?He?s not hurt. He?s not throwing 79 mph,? Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters a little over a week ago. ?He?s had a couple of outings that aren?t up to his standards.?

Betting against the Sox with Beckett on the bump is still risky (Boston is 3-2 in his last five starts). If you?re looking for a more reliable bet, as far as trends are concerned, take a peek at the total. The over is 5-0 in Beckett?s last five outings.

Scott Richmond (6-8, 4.61), Toronto Blue Jays

If you are looking for a possible parlay pitcher, the young righthander may fit the bill.

In his last six starts, Richmond is 0-4 with a 6.81 ERA. He has 18 walks in that span, inflating his WHIP to 1.85.

And in his last five outings, the total has gone over, with a minimum of 10 runs scored in each game.

Dave Bush (3-6, 6.47), Milwaukee Brewers

The righthander is listed as questionable with a triceps injury. Questionable is also a good word to describe his recent performances.

Bush was sidelined nearly two months with arm woes before returning late last month. He has lost both his starts, allowing 13 runs, 15 hits and five walks in eight innings. That's a staggering 2 1-2 baserunners per inning.

Going back to before his injury, Bush is winless in his last seven starts, lasting more than five innings just once.

This is his second straight start against the Cardinals, who tattooed him for 11 hits and eight runs in 3 1-3 innings last time.
 

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MLB's best and worst September bets
The length of the baseball season tests a team?s ability to maintain focus and intensity through to Game 162.

Some are better than others - and it's not always the playoff-bound teams that do it.

It should come as no surprise that the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels have three of the top September records over the past three years.

But you might be surprised by a couple teams that tend to play their best baseball in the final month, and by a couple teams that don't.

Strong finishers

Philadelphia Phillies

The defending World champions are usually a reliable bet throughout the season, but they turn up their game another notch in September. Philadelphia is 52-30 (.634 winning percentage) in the final month over the past three seasons, compared to 266-220 (.530) in the other months.

It hasn?t been just one phenomenal September that skewed the Phils? numbers either ? they?ve been 17-11 or better all three years. The team might not have that much incentive to continue its hot September play this year, considering it has a very comfortable lead in the NL East.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto has been a strong September team the past three seasons, going 49-33 (.598). That winning percentage is much higher than the Jays? record in other months (207-197, .512). Making this trend even more impressive is the fact that September schedules are often loaded with division matchups. In Toronto?s case, that means plenty of games against the Red Sox and Yankees.

The Jays? September success might come to an end this year, however. Toronto has often appeared overmatched and disheartened in losing 20 of its past 29 games.

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City is under .500 in September the past three years (40-41, .493), but that?s still a dramatic improvement over the Royals? record during the other months (166-239, .410). The Royals? fall numbers are inflated a bit by last year?s results, when KC won 18 of its final 26 games. It'd be hard to imagine a similar run to end this season, since the Royals have dropped 35 of their last 49 contests.

Fading finishers

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are the best team in baseball at one thing - waving the white flag. Baltimore actually hasn't been that bad from April to August the past three years, posting a record of 182-220 (.453). But the Orioles don't seem to worry about building momentum for the following season once it gets to September.

They are a league-worst 25-58 (.301) in the final month the past three campaigns, including 5-20 last year. Baltimore seems to be up to its old tricks again this season, starting September with three straight losses.

Detroit Tigers

Forgive Detroit fans if they don't not feel comfortable with a six-game lead in the AL Central. Despite playing well above .500 ball in the first five months of the season the last three years (221-184, .546), the Tigers have stumbled significantly in two of the last three Septembers.

They are 36-45 overall (.444) in the first month of fall during the last three years, including a 12-16 mark in 2006 that nearly cost them a playoff spot. Detroit has started this September on the right foot, however, winning its first three games.

St. Louis Cardinals

Like the Tigers, St. Louis has shown a tendency to play good baseball until the finish line is in sight. The Cardinals' pre-September record the last three years was 210-190 (.525), but St. Louis has gone 37-48 (.435) to close out the seasons.

That trend might continue this year. The Cards have all but locked up the NL Central title and might rest starters or lose focus in the final weeks.
 

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Baseball's hottest trends

Baseball's hottest trends

Baseball's hottest trends
San Francisco Giants in homestand openers

The Giants have carried a pair of home trends all season and there's no reason to believe they will not continue.

San Francisco, which opens a homestand Monday against San Diego, is 17-4 in the first game of a home series. An even stronger trend is the Giants' sparkling 9-1 record in homestand openers.

This is a nine-game homestand with three series for the Giants, who have a seven-game homestand with two series starting Sept. 24.

Minnesota Twins under the total

One look at Minnesota's disabled list and you would think their entire rotation is sidelined. But the Twins aren't pitching as if they are short on arms.

The Twins have played 10 straight games that have gone under the total. In fact, just once in that stretch have as many as eight runs been scored.

Remarkably, this follows a stretch where the over was 12-3-3 in Minnesota's previous 18 games.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals

Last chance, folks. The Angels and Royals wrap up their nine-game season series Monday, with the Angels looking for a clean sweep.

Los Angeles has won the first eight meetings by a combined 47-21. Kansas City has scored more than four runs just twice.

The Angels have been favored in every game, although Monday's price of -175 is by far the highest of any game vs. the Royals this year.

Philadelphia Phillies under the total on the road

The Phillies have been a solid money play on the road all season and in recent weeks have become a solid totals play outside the cozy confines of Citizens Bank Park as well.

Since Aug. 13, the Phillies are 10-3-1 against the over in road contests. They finish a series at Houston on Monday and begin a three-game series Tuesday at Washington.
 
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