Played AF +4 and am listing my plays so far for my convenience when grading....
AF +4 x2
Buff un49.5 x2
LA Tech +7.5 x2
ECU +7 (-115) x2
Arky St +23 x2
UCLA +8 x1
UNLV +7 (-105) x1
Wash St ML (+110 ) x1
Will add Houston and Tulane. Will likely Ohio State on saturday. May juice off of LT due to flu concerns
AF -- Not only is Minn below average in several areas as detailed by BBC among others, but they are in an obvious "sandwich" situation off of an emotional win with Cal on deck. Minn players will also be dealing with the hooplah surrounding their new stadium, and that didn't pan out well for Rutgers yesterday.
LA Tech -- The LA Tech OL logged 47 starts last year (or at least that is what I wrote down in the margin of my Steele mag). Still, LT was unable to run the ball against the much stronger DL of Auburn. This week, life will get much easier in that regard. Throughout the beginning of the game LT was able to move the ball through the air. Once Auburn applied press coverage outside, LT receivers were unable to get open. Should not be an issue this week against Navy. I expect LT to move the football well.
Last week the D was slowed by flu striking 2 good defensive backs in 2-time All Conf safety Baker and 3rd year starter Deon Young. Also, their top DT (all conference 1st team) Boo Smith missed much of the game due to shortness of breath after being stepped on during a play. By all accounts Smith was innefective upon his return in the 2H. Another DL went down with an injury, but did not return.
It appears Navy lacks starting experience all over the place. This team suffered an emotional loss to OSU, and I find that to be a good time to fade a team.
Reasons to avoid playing LA Tech include injury/flu status of a D that already lacks depth, as well as their inability to win on the road . Winning on the road was a big deal for LT this offseason (of course, it was LY too), and I cannot imagine that they honestly expected to win @ Auburn. The same cannot be said this week, and I expect a game effort despite this being 2nd straight on road.
UCLA -- I feel that Tenn is not as good as folks think, while UCLA is better. Western Kentucky is gone, and in their place is a very talented team with a stout D. Small play b/c of UCLA QB, long trip, as well as revenge factor for Tenn. Of course, Gators on deck provides a lookahead
possibility for Kiffin & co.
GL:weed:
