Week 1 Rewind

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LOKI
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Week 1 Rewind


Where do we start after watching Sunday?s drama unfold in Week 1 of the 2009 NFL season? Let?s talk about the goats, gamers and gambling that ended with a crucial two-point conversion with the spread cover on the line.

Green Bay rallied to beat the Bears 21-15 in a defensive struggle. Trailing 15-13 at midfield with 1:11 remaining, Aaron Rodgers found Greg Jennings speeding past Chicago cornerback Nathan Vasher for a 50-yard touchdown pass. Jennings made a diving catch at the goal line on the conversion attempt to put the Packers ahead by six.

After the conversion was reviewed by replay officials and eventually confirmed, bettors backing Green Bay were thrilled. Many books closed the Packers at five but most gamblers were holding tickets at 3 ? or four unless they waited until the weekend to put down their action.

Whatever the case, the Bears had another chance with more than a minute remaining and their new franchise quarterback at the controls with a chance to redeem himself for a three-interception night. But on the same day the Broncos pulled out a miracle win at Cincinnati, it was not to be for Jay Cutler, the former Denver QB who orchestrated his exit after the new coach flirted with acquiring Matt Cassel.

On the first play of a potential game-winning drive, Cutler threw his fourth interception to put the icing on a miserable debut that had to remind Chicago fans more of Rex Grossman, Cade McNown, Will Furrer and Moses Moreno than Sid Luckman.

With Cutler?s fourth pick taking place near midnight on the East coast, I couldn?t help but think about how the Broncos were most likely back at their facility just in time to watch the festivities at Lambeau Field. They had to be smiling.





Denver never trailed in the first 59 minutes but gave up a one-year touchdown run to Cedric Benson with 38 seconds left. With the Bengals taking a 7-6 lead, things looked bleak in Josh McDaniels? debut as head coach. After Eddie Royal?s kick return mustered just the 13 yard line, Kyle Orton threw an incompletion to leave 28 ticks on the clock.

The next play will go down in NFL lore forever. Orton tried to hit Brandon Marshall down the left sideline but Cincy CB Leon Hall deflected the pass. On the carom, the ball bounced forward and into the hands of a streaking Brandon Stokley who had nothing but green grass in front of him (How about the brilliant heads-up play by Stokley to run parallel to the end zone to chew up valuable seconds!).

The 87-yard touchdown pass ripped the hearts out of fans at Paul Brown Stadium. Unless you had the Bengals in a teaser, on the money line or in a season-total bet, the freaky ending didn?t mean much since the Broncos were going to cash tickets as 4 ?-point underdogs anyway.

Minnesota hooked up its backers in a four-point road ?chalk? spot at Cleveland. Adrian Peterson stole the show with 180 yards rushing and three touchdowns. Brett Favre completed 14-of-21 passes for 110 yards and one touchdown, a six-yard strike to rookie WR Percy Harvin. Most importantly, Favre didn?t commit a turnover as the Vikings won by a 34-20 count.

Looking ahead at what?s next for both Minnesota (at Detroit and vs. San Francisco) and Green Bay (vs. Cincinnati and at St. Louis), we see the Packers? trip to the Metrodome for Monday Night Football on Oct. 5 possibly being a showdown between unbeaten teams. And, oh yeah, it?ll pit Favre, Green Bay?s franchise icon, against the Packers and their new QB who looks like he could be a perennial Pro-Bowler in the making.

While the Vikings and Favre were putting it to former Jets? coach Eric Mangini in Cleveland, New York was moving forward in Houston with new coach Rex Ryan and rookie QB Mark Sanchez. All went well for the J-E-T-S, as they stroked the Texans 24-7 as live 4 ?-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a plus-180 payout (risk $100 to win $180).

Sanchez connected on 18-of-31 passes for 272 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Thomas Jones ran for 107 yards on 20 carries for a pair of touchdowns.

Philadelphia was the most dominant team in Week 1, destroying Carolina 38-10 as a 2 ?-point road favorite. However, Donovan McNabb sustained a broken rib when he took a late hit on a touchdown run. His status for next week?s home game against New Orleans looks very doubtful (as of Monday morning).

Michael Vick is still suspended through next week, so Kevin Kolb would get the starting nod if McNabb can?t go. Look for the Eagles to try and re-sign A.J. Feeley, who they recently released.

The other story out of Charlotte was four interceptions and one lost fumble by QB Jake Delhomme, who had six turnovers in Carolina?s loss to Arizona in the playoffs. That?s 11 turnovers in two games and Delhomme, the consummate pro, knows that can?t happen anymore.

The Panthers will look to bounce back when they go to Atlanta in Week 2. The Falcons took care of their business in their opener, beating Miami 19-7 in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated. The biggest question for Atlanta was its defense, which went through a huge overhaul over the offseason, but that unit looked dominant against the 'Fins.

The acquisition of veteran LB Mike Peterson, a former Jag who played under Mike Smith in Jacksonville, looks like another stroke of genius from GM Thomas Dimitroff. Peterson was everywhere against the Dolphins, producing seven tackles, one interception and a forced fumble.





Another brilliant Dimitroff move was trading for tight end Tony Gonzalez, who had five receptions for 73 yards and one TD in his Atlanta debut. Gonzalez appears to already have a nice chemistry with QB Matt Ryan, who showed no signs of a sophomore slump. Ryan hit on 22-of-36 passes for 229 yards with two TDs and no interceptions.

New Orleans looked like a machine in a 45-27 win over Detroit as a 14-point home favorite. Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes, including a pair to TE Jeremy Shockey, in a game that was a back-and-forth affair for our purposes. The 72 combined points sailed ?over? the 50-point total that was the highest on the board.

Tony Romo looked like a new man as Dallas rolled to a 34-21 win at Tampa Bay as a five-point road favorite. Romo threw for 353 yards and three TDs without a turnover, spreading the ball around to six receivers on just 16 completions compared to 27 attempts. Romo?s comfort level without concerning himself with a ball-hungry Terrell Owens was palpable. T.O.?s absence clearly looked like addition by subtraction in the Cowboys? opener.

Arizona lost outright at home to San Francisco during the late-afternoon set of games. The 49ers captured the 20-16 win as 6 ?-point road underdogs thanks to Shaun Hill?s fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Frank Gore.

One of the most painful gambling losses of Week 1 came for Giants? backers as 6 ?-point ?chalk.? The G-Men controlled the game from start to finish but gave up a late TD pass from Jason Campbell to Chris Cooley. That gave Washington the backdoor cover in the 23-17 loss.

Seattle spanked St. Louis by a 28-0 score, easily covering the number as a 7 ?-point home favorite. Also, Baltimore beat a Cassel-less KC squad 38-24 to cover, while Jacksonville took the money in a 14-12 loss at Indianapolis.



--The favorites went 8-5 ATS in Sunday?s Week 1 games. The ?under? went 7-6.

--For bettors who backed the Bears in the second half with the line at ?pick,? they were in a plus eight position since Chicago trailed 10-2 at intermission. When Cutler threw his fourth interception to Green Bay?s Al Harris, there was plenty of green grass in front of Harris. But gamblers cashed second-half tickets on the Bears thanks to Cutler?s tackle to save a TD. The Packers then took a knee for the 21-15 final.

--If I?m grading Sanchez and Rex Ryan in their Jets? debuts, I?ve got to give them both an ?A.? They out-yarded the Texans 462-183.

--Lions? rookie QB Matthew Stafford completed 16-of-37 passes for 207 yards with no TDs and three interceptions.

--Arizona WR Anquan Boldin?s numbers: two receptions for 19 yards. I can sense his frustration level from thousands of miles away in Florida.
 

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Cutler's move leads to two losers

Cutler's move leads to two losers

Cutler's move leads to two losers

A bitter divorce between the Denver Broncos and young quarterback Jay Cutler made both sides look bad over the summer. The Broncos traded away their future, and were expected to suffer for it, and Cutler was portrayed as a crybaby.

The betting public followed the story and saw two losers.

On the first Sunday of the NFL's roller-coaster ride, wagering was heavy against Cutler's former team and his new team, the Chicago Bears. The decision was split.

At the end of the day, after throwing four interceptions in his Bears debut at Green Bay, Cutler probably wanted to cry. He was the biggest loser.

Earlier, the Broncos won as road underdogs, hurting the betting public on a day when the sports books otherwise took a beating.

"The players got the best of it today," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said.

There was one big exception, and it was the Broncos, who stunned the Cincinnati Bengals 12-7 on Brandon Stokley's fluke 87-yard touchdown reception with 11 seconds remaining.

The Bengals closed as 5-point favorites at some sports books, after bettors drove the line up about two points in the past two weeks. The point-spread decision was not in doubt, but Stokley's catch off a deflected pass made Denver one of only three underdogs to win outright in Week 1.

Kornegay said even the wiseguys wanted no action on the Broncos.

"It was all Bengals money. I think the little money that came in on the Broncos was from people wearing orange and blue," Kornegay said. "The only things you heard out of Denver were negative. There was nothing positive. So I'm not sure why you would consider betting the Denver side."

Kornegay paused and said, "But the Bengals laying 41/2 points against anyone is inviting. They are so inept."

NFL betting might be 60 percent handicapping skill and 40 percent luck -- those percentages are up for debate -- and three games served as examples.

The Bears, who closed as high as 5-point underdogs, led 15-13 going into the final two minutes. But Packers bettors had their prayers answered as Aaron Rodgers fired a 50-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings with 1:11 left. Green Bay added a 2-point conversion and, after Cutler threw another interception, miraculously covered the spread with a 21-15 win at Lambeau Field.

The New York Giants, 61/2-point home favorites, appeared to be the winning side. But we were fooled again. Jason Campbell's 17-yard pass to Chris Cooley with 1:30 left got the Washington Redskins in the back door with a 23-17 loss.

Underdog bettors had to feel secure about the Kansas City Chiefs, who closed as 13-point 'dogs at Baltimore. A game that was tied with over two minutes to go turned into a 38-24 victory for the Ravens, and going into the details of how it ended would just further torture those who backed the Chiefs.

The Ravens were among eight favorites to cover, joining Atlanta, Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Seattle.

"There were negative results," Kornegay said. "Even though we're going to end up losing, it's a good day for us because of all the people coming out."

A lot of those people bet on the Packers, and many of them will be on New England and San Diego tonight.

"The parlay liability is adding up," Kornegay said. "There definitely is going to be liability out there (today) on those two big favorites."

The Patriots are 11-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bills. The best bet, according to professional gambler Steve Fezzik, is to take the Bills under their regular-season win total.

"Buffalo under 71/2 wins is a great bet," Fezzik said. "The Bills look terrible. They just can't score at all."

Fezzik, who said, "I can't lay more than 10 points in the NFL," is tempted to lay 91/2 points with the Chargers at Oakland.

"I think San Diego is going to the Super Bowl. I think Oakland is going under six wins," Fezzik said. "There is no price I want Oakland at because the Chargers will kill them in this game. Even though it opened 61/2, the right side at 9 is still San Diego.

"If you can lay less than 10 with San Diego, go ahead and do it. The spot to bet the Raiders was Week 1 in the preseason, and that was the only spot."

With some luck, the favorites should cover tonight.


****FEZZIK ALWAYS PLAYS DOGS, AND HE IS AN ASSHOLE ! JUST CHECK AROUND SOME OTHER BOARDS AND SEE WHAT IS SAID ABOUT HIM, HE WON 1 HILTON NFL CHALLENGE AND HE HAS BEEN MADE AND EXPERT ? :shrug: :mj07: ****
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Monday Morning Sentence Fragments (Week 1)

Monday Morning Sentence Fragments (Week 1)

Monday Morning Sentence Fragments (Week 1)

At the risk of going the self-absorbed route and making this column all about me, I must confess that it is difficult for yours truly to follow 13 games in a single day and come out of all that chaos with anything resembling a coherent thought.

And, as both people who have followed this space religiously know, such incoherence is something of a common occurrence for me.

Thus, rather than continuing to swim against the tide and attempt to come up with some grand statement of profound truth each Sunday, I've decided to embrace the sensory overload of an NFL Sunday by giving you a bunch of brief observations, predictions, short lists, and perhaps an occasional haiku.

And so it begins:

I WAS SURPRISED THAT...

...Mark Sanchez played so well. Making the first start of his NFL career, on the road against a Houston Texans team that was supposed to have a pretty good pass rush, Sanchez was 18-of-31 for 272 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and no sacks absorbed in a 24-7 beat-down of a trendy AFC playoff pick.

...the Panthers were so God-awful. I thought Carolina was headed for a fall this season, but I also figured that with 21 of 22 starters returning from a 12-4 team, and at home against an Eagles team that was going through a transition at several positions, that John Fox's club would have a great chance to beat Philadelphia in Week 1. Five Jake Delhomme turnovers later, the Panthers were walking off the field as 38-10 losers. Paging Dr. Cowher...

...the Chiefs hung with the Ravens. Don't believe what the 14-point final score (38-24) would suggest, Kansas City was in this game until the waning moments, scratching and clawing to a 24-24 tie thanks to a blocked punt for a touchdown, a Derrick Johnson interception that set up another score, and a pretty efficient performance from Brodie Croyle (16-of-24, 177 yards, 2 TD) against a very good defense. Prediction: this team is going to win more games than it loses in the second half of the season.

I WAS NOT SURPRISED THAT...

...Donovan McNabb got hurt. That the guy was able to make 19 starts last year was a minor miracle given McNabb's injury history, and you just knew there wasn't much shot of him coming away unscathed again. McNabb was fallen on in the end zone after a third-quarter touchdown run, and suffered fractured ribs. If he plays next week against the Saints, I'll be shocked. There is no reason to rush McNabb back from such a painful injury in September, and against a weak Saints defense, Kevin Kolb could get a real opportunity to gain some confidence.

...the Bengals got beat, and looked bad in doing so. I heard a lot about Cincinnati's potential for improvement during the offseason, but with Carson Palmer coming off a bad ankle and elbow, an offensive line that is mediocre on its best day, and Cedric Benson a candidate to turn back into a pumpkin at any moment, logic dictated this team would continue to struggle. Sure, Cincinnati lost because of a fluke play, but a 7-6 home win against the Broncos pretty much would have been a loss anyway.

...the Seahawks got back on track. Yeah, they were playing the Rams, but Seattle didn't even entertain the notion that St. Louis would give them a game, prevailing by a 28-0 margin and looking as powerful as they did prior to last year's 4-12 aberration. Matt Hasselbeck (279 yards, 3 TD), Julius Jones (19 rushes, 117 yards, 1 TD) and tight end John Carlson (6 receptions, 95 yards, 2 TD) were but three of the stars. If this team stays reasonably healthy, you can book their NFC West title.

FOUR COACHES WHO DID NOT SLEEP ON SUNDAY NIGHT

1. Marvin Lewis - Lewis didn't sleep both because his team lost a game it pretty much had won, and because the Bengals offense was every bit as bad with Carson Palmer at the controls as it was with Ryan Fitzpatrick running it last year.

2. Gary Kubiak - Houston owner Bob McNair expects the Texans to go to the playoffs, and Kubiak's team was blown out at home by a rookie quarterback on opening day. The bright side is that Mike Shanahan will need an offensive coordinator when he becomes a head coach again next year, and Kubiak figures to be looking.

3. John Fox - Fox's quarterback, Jake Delhomme, has thrown nine interceptions in his last two games, and as Josh McCown and Matt Moore both showed on Sunday, there is no one behind Delhomme.

4. Jim Zorn - There's no shame in losing a road game to the Giants, but the Redskins were never a serious threat in this game, scoring their only offensive touchdown in garbage time. The real trouble, though, is that the defense did not play especially well.

OBLIGATORY FAVRE MENTION

Brett Favre was 14-of-21 for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' 34-20 win over the Cleveland Browns, and showed the ability to run the plays Brad Childress called for the team's real offensive story, Adrian Peterson (25 carries, 180 yards, 3 TD). Tarvaris Jackson probably couldn't have been as efficient, but I bet Sage Rosenfels could have.

THE BIG BREES-Y

As you know if you were lit up by him in fantasy, Drew Brees threw six touchdown passes in the Saints' 45-27 win over the Detroit Lions, who also showed a beating heart in their debut under Jim Schwartz. Brees needs to average exactly three touchdowns per game the rest of the way to break Tom Brady's single-season TD pass record. He might not throw six again this season, but betcha Brees gets close.

THE THOUGHT CAUSING ME WAKING NIGHTMARES

I received an e-mail from a reader this weekend asking if I had any inside information on halftime entertainment for Super Bowl XLIV. The fear here, my friends, is that it is going to be Bon Jovi, a group comfortably in the Top 10 of the worst things to happen to popular music in the past 25 years.

Think about it: a stadium-sized act that has yet to appear at the Super Bowl, has a new album due, and won't offend television advertisers or the league's corporate underwriters. Bon Jovi's new single is called "We Weren't Born to Follow." Presumably to be followed by other ironically-titled singles such as: "All of Our Fans are Not Stonewashed-Wearing Stepford Wives," "Our Success Was Not Created In a Boardroom," and the future classic, "We Don't Cater to the Lowest Common Denominator of Taste-Challenged Listeners."

Please, NFL, have some sense and just bring back U2 or McCartney.
 

Lumi

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Public dominates Week 1

Public dominates Week 1

Public dominates Week 1
September 14, 2009


Weekend Recap

After a robust Saturday college football slate for sportsbooks, Sunday turned the bettors way for the first week of pro football. Most all the major decision went the House?s way Saturday with the likes of UCLA winning and USC not covering, but on Sunday the public did well with majority opinion.
UCLA opened as a seven-point underdog to Tennessee and closed at +11. The Bruins played a defensive inspired game and helped contribute to the beginning of a big days for the books. Nobody seemed to have faith in the rah-rah Rick Neuheisel coaching philosophy over the outspoken Lane Kiffen style of running a squad, but the less is more theory proved dividends.


Later in the evening, another PAC-10 school traveling east helped seal the deal for the books as the majority of the betting public was on USC (-7) at Columbus against The Ohio State University.

The veteran boss for Lucky?s sportsbooks across the state of Nevada and Delaware, Jimmy Vaccaro, was very happy with how Saturday went. ?It was a good day for the house, and we?re especially pleased with the overall handle. Last week was a great build up for the books and players and it just continued over into the second week, Vaccaro said. ?We had several key decisions on the day, but the key was the Ohio State-USC which ended well for the house because so many parlays were linked to USC laying -7.?

However Sunday?s Week 1 in the NFL wasn?t as good for the books. Generally, they expect to win on NFL Sunday?s because of the sheer volume. The combination of the best sports line in the world with the greed of the public parlaying as many games they can usually produce a productive day for the house.

?In the morning games, it seemed like everyone had the combination of Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, and Baltimore in their parlays. Said Vaccaro. We got some buy back on Carolina when we went to +3, and same with Cleveland +5, but not enough to offset to overall risk in the morning.?

At the end of the first wave of nine games Sunday, Vaccaro said his books were about even, but the real risk was yet to come.

?We got smart money on the Rams and 49ers late games pushing those lines down, but we had far more risk on the other side.?

Vaccaro was put into the position for the late games of rooting with the sharp players who moved the line because there was more upside for the house. The combination late of Seattle, New York, Arizona, and Green Bay involved in existing parlays were a worst case scenario despite all the large wagers taken on the other side.

That is how powerful the parlay can be. Sportsbooks live and die with it. On a rare losing day for the house in pro football, seldom will it ever be the wise guy that it?s attributed to. A rough day for the books is generally when a majority of the Sunday games cover for the players paying out odds of 20, 40, and 80 to 1 that a book just can?t catch up to. Each week, usually there are about six to seven games that are just buried one sided in ticket counts.

Big Score of the Day

Chris Cooley?s score in the final minutes for the Redskins covered the +6.5 against the Giants making the score 17-23 and pushing the game over the total of 37. The books breathed a sigh of relief on both of those decisions.

Moves of Week 1: Sharps vs. Sportsbooks

The Eagles opened -1 at the Las Vegas Hilton and was bet to -2.5 by Saturday where it closed. Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off in the playoffs and tossed four more interceptions. Winner: Sharps

The Bengals opened a pick months ago and was bet systematically to -4.5 through all the Mile High drama. Denver played great defense, enough to cover, and caught a Hail-Mary to win straight up. Edge: Sportsbooks

Colts opened -7.5 and bet down to 6.5 and the Jaguars made a game of it covering, and nearly winning. Maurice Jones-Drew was stellar and the Jags defense played very physical creating key turnovers. Winner: Sharps

The Cowboys opened at -6 and was bet down to -5 by Sunday morning. Tony Romo showed his two exes that he?s just fine without them. Long Bombs throughout the day all connecting against a good secondary. Winner: Sportsbooks

Arizona opened -6.5 and was bet down to -4.5 close to game time. The poor pre-season by the Cardinals lingers. Winner: Sharps


The oddsmakers are expecting Lane Kiffin and the Vols to get humbled at Florida this weekend. (AP Images)

Seahawks opened -8.5 and was bet down to -7.5. Logic being that the Seahawks couldn?t be a TD better than the Rams, I guess. Mystery on this one, nothing good to say about the Rams. Edge: Sportsbooks

Gainesville Rivalry Week Welcomes The Vols

Florida?s opening suggested line by Las Vegas Sports Consultants of -25 seems very generous for those looking to play Florida.

?I?m really looking forward to embracing some of the great traditions at the University of Tennessee, for instance the Vol Walk, running through the T, singing Rocky Top all night long after we beat Florida next year. It will be a blast."

Those were the comments made by Lane Kiffin during the press conference to announce he was the Vols new Head Coach. When Florida QB Tim Tebow read the comments, he blew it up poster sized and placed it all over the spring practice facility. When Kiffin found out about it, he was pretty tickled by it.

"Beautiful. Awesome. Wonderful. They even put our logo on it. Free advertising and we didn?t have to pay for it."

That was all playful fun, but then Kiffin went all in and made suggestions publicly to a crowd that Gators Head Coach Urban Meyer ?had to cheat and still didn?t get him? in reference to a player they both were recruiting. Kiffin was reprimanded by the SEC and had to make a public apology to Florida for the comments.

Now, Kiffin?s talking is done, because that day is now here. He put a big bulls-eye on his chest to instill pride and motivation into his players and fans. While he may have put some spunk into the sagging confidence of the Tennessee faithful with his brashness, he has also aggravated the National Champs and Urban to new heights of their own motivation.

Following Florida?s 56-6 win over Troy last week Urban said, ?The season starts now? and that Tuesday?s practice ?would be the hardest practice we?ll ever have.?

The largest margin of victory the Gators have ever had against the Vols was 39 in 2007 and the most points they have ever scored against them was 62 in 1995. Look for both of those records to fall with no mercy given.
 
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