Betting on Thursday Night ACC Affair

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Betting on Thursday Night ACC Affair

Miami is going to need every one of the nine days off to get ready for Georgia Tech after thriller in Tallahassee, outlasting Florida State 38-34 as six point underdogs. Quarterback Jacory Harris was magnificent throwing for 386 yards and running back Kraig Cooper was a versatile all-around performer in running the ball, catching passes and returning kicks. The defense gave up 404 yards and was especially vulnerable to routes over the middle 10-18 yards down the field.

However, coach Randy Shannon is going to leave the details for the practice field and focus in on the bigger picture. ?I?m confident in this football team,? Shannon said. ?From what we had to go through three years ago to where we?re at now, it?s a totally different team, totally different mentality.?

The 20th ranked Hurricanes can further enhance their image of yesteryear with a win over No. 14 Georgia Tech Thursday night at LandShark Stadium. Miami has spent a great deal of practice time on improving all areas of special teams, which could described as giving the ?golden parachute? of field position, as they allowed the Seminoles average starting at its own 43-yard line following Canes kicks, and three times started drives on Miami?s side of the 50. Miami is only 6-13-1 ATS off a straight up win.

For their home opener, the Hurricanes will have to play assignment football to control Georgia Tech?s option and they are 12-1 on Thursday night?s with cheerless 4-8 ATS record.
This will be the Yellow Jackets second straight Thursday encounter after surviving against Clemson last week 30-27 as five-point favorites. This is Georgia Tech?s first road game of 2009 and they?ll have to clean up the fumbling bugaboo that cost them a couple of wins last year and has returned again. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt has put the pigskin on the ground, though his passing has looked better on occasion to start the year. Last year?s ACC rushing leader Jonathan Dwyer looks like he?s in for another big year and the addition of transfer A-back Anthony Allen adds another dimension to offense. Georgia Tech is only 13-10 ATS the first half of the season the last four years.

Georgia Tech?s defensive front had three players chosen in the NFL draft, with defensive end Derrick Morgan the only holdover. Morgan has been an absolute terror with five sacks in the first two games and has been backed up by a solid group behind him. Expect Yellow Jackets coaches to bring linebackers and safeties to disrupt Harris and keep him from getting comfortable in the pocket for club that is 15-6-1 ATS off a spread loss.

Bookmaker.com has Miami as five-point favorites with total of 54. The Hurricanes are despicable 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and are 15-5 UNDER in home games off a road win against a conference rival. Georgia Tech is 19-6 ATS after playing a Thursday game and 12-3 UNDER after a win by six or less points.

The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in four ACC meetings with Miami, including two outright road upsets. The Canes are 1-6 SU and ATS versus Georgia Tech dating back 32 years and are 0-6 against the spread at home when playing with revenge. The Hurricanes are only 17-24 ATS since joining the ACC in conference play.

Power Line ? Miami by 9
Forecaster ?Georgia Tech to cover
 

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Miami (FL) Hurricanes (1-0) (0-0 H) vs Ga Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0) (0-0 A)

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (1-0) (0-0 H) vs Ga Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0) (0-0 A)

Miami (FL) Hurricanes (1-0) (0-0 H) vs Ga Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0) (0-0 A)

Game Time: 7:45 p.m. EDT Thursday, September 17

Stadium: Orange Bowl Surface: Grass




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Ga Tech Yellow Jackets HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 2 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0
Last 5 games 2 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0
YTD vs. Conf. 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Miami (FL) Hurricanes HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0
Last 5 games 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0
YTD vs. Conf. 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Ga Tech Yellow Jackets 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Ga Tech Yellow Jackets
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat JAXST 37 - 17 W 0 0 W 20 0 0 O +-54.0 G
09/10/09 Thu CLEM 30 - 27 W -3.5 -5.5 L -2.5 43 44.5 O +-12.5 G


Miami (FL) Hurricanes
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/07/09 Mon @FLST 38 - 34 W +4 +6 W 10 47 47 O +-25.0 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
10/28/06 Sat MIA 23 GATECH 30 -6.0 -4.0 GATECH +3 38.0 38.0 O +-15 G
10/13/07 Sat GATECH 17 MIA 14 -3.5 -2.5 MIA --5.5 43.0 42.5 U -11.5 G
11/20/08 Thu MIA 23 GATECH 41 -3.5 -3.0 GATECH +15 40.0 42.0 O +-22 G




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
GATECH (off)
MIA (def)
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
GATECH (def)
MIA (off)
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
GATECH (off) 33.5 18 50 318 6.4 14 6 0.4 140 10.0 458 1.0 1.5
MIA (def) 34.0 21 30 110 3.7 41 24 0.6 294 7.2 404 1.0 1.0
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
GATECH (def) 22.0 17 35 112 3.2 35 19 0.5 227 6.5 339 1.5 0.5
MIA (off) 38.0 22 30 90 3.0 34 21 0.6 386 11.4 476 2.0 0.0



SCORING AVERAGES:

Ga Tech Yellow Jackets (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR
POINTS ALLOWED



Miami (FL) Hurricanes (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR
POINTS ALLOWED



Ga Tech Yellow Jackets (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 19.0 8.5 27.5 0.0 6.0 0.0 6
POINTS ALLOWED 0.0 7.0 7 7.0 8.0 0.0 15



Miami (FL) Hurricanes (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.0 7.0 14 3.0 21.0 0.0 24
POINTS ALLOWED 7.0 3.0 10 13.0 11.0 0.0 24



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Ga Tech Yellow Jackets 57.5
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 65.5 -12.0 8.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 43.5 UNKNOWN
 

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LOKI
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Georgia Tech at Miami, Fl.

Georgia Tech at Miami, Fl.

Georgia Tech at Miami, Fl.
September 16, 2009

#14 Georgia Tech (2-0, 1-0 ACC) at #20 Miami (1-0, 1-0 ACC)
7:30 PM ESPN
Landshark Stadium (Natural Grass)
Line: Miami -4.5, O/U 54

It?s always curious to me how one play can sway the oddsmakers opinion of a team. Case in point: What if FSU QB Christian Ponder's pass to sophomore Jarmon Fortson had been caught instead of dropped, resulting in a Seminole win over Miami in Week 1 of the season? Now granted, that?s one pretty big play, but I do wonder if Fortson had caught the ball would Miami still be a 4.5 point favorite over Georgia Tech this Thursday night?

Something in my gut tells me a 0-1 Hurricanes team would be favored by 3 instead of 4.5. I guess we?ll never know but it is good food for thought as we start to size up this Thursday night?s game. For the second straight week we are in ACC land and once again get the opportunity to check out the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.


Jacory Harris had a breakout game against Florida State on Labor Day.

Last week Tech sprinted to a 21-0 lead over Clemson, thanks largely to a couple special teams plays, only to watch the Tigers come all the way back to tie the game and even take the lead. In the end however, QB Josh Nesbitt made a couple of timely throws to get Tech into field goal range and the Ramblin? Wreck won 30-27. As always with Paul Johnson teams, the ground game was a big part of the win, evidenced by their 300 yards rushing against Clemson, which was the fifth straight regular-season game they eclipsed that mark.

A win is always great but head coach Paul Johnson will surely be looking at plenty of tape to try and patch up some holes that Clemson found in the Georgia Tech defense. Clemson redshirt freshman QB Kyle Parker, making only his second college start, threw for 261 yards and three touchdowns last Thursday. You can be sure that somewhere in South Florida, Hurricanes quarterback Jacory Harris was watching. Watching and smiling I would guess.

Miami is buzzing again about the ?Canes and Harris is a big reason why. The sophomore signal caller was making only his third career start, and he shredded Florida State for 386 yards and two TDs and showed great ability to escape pressure (one sack). Harris spread the ball around to eight different receivers with WRs Travis Benjamin and Leonard Hankerson leading the way.

Of course, while Johnson and his staff will be busy getting his defense ready, you can bet that Miami coach Randy Shannon will be doing plenty of the same. Miami certainly remembers the 2008 meeting between these two programs when the Yellow Jackets ran for 472 yards en route to a 41-23 victory.

And that likely tells the whole story of this game. As everyone knows by now, Georgia Tech has a powerful ground game with quarterback Josh Nesbitt and running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Anthony Allen, a transfer from Louisville who flashed some serious speed with an 82-yard scoring run against Clemson. If Miami can make adjustments to stop the Yellow Jackets on the ground, the Hurricanes will likely win this game and head into next week?s monster showdown against Virginia Tech riding high.

On the other side, Miami has now proven they have a multi-faceted passing attack that must be respected. If the Georgia Tech defense can get effective pressure on Harris and cause the Hurricanes passing attack to falter, the Jackets could escape South Florida with a win.

So in a game that is seemingly all about offense, it will really be up to the defenses to decide the outcome.

Two key players for Georgia Tech will be:

DE Derrick Morgan: The junior has five sacks in two games so far in 2009. Miami will likely double team Morgan but he will have to find a way to put pressure on Harris in order to get the QB out of rhythm.





QB Josh Nesbitt: Everyone knows Nesbit can run the triple option. But everyone is also finding out that Nesbitt has a hard time burning defenses with his arm. The junior was just 3-of-14 for 83 yards with two interceptions against Clemson. If Miami loads the box to take away the run ? and wouldn?t that make sense? ? Nesbitt will have to prove capable of throwing the ball down the field or it will be a long night for Tech.

Two key players for Miami will be:

RB Graig Cooper: Miami RB Javarris James gets more pub ? mainly because he is Edgerrin?s cousin ? but make no mistake, Cooper is the most valuable back for Miami. The junior doesn?t always put up huge rushing totals ? he only had 31 yards on the ground against FSU ? but he catches a lot of balls out of the backfield and is a special teams terror ? returning five kickoffs for 177 yards against the Noles.

LBs Colin McCarthy, Sean Spence & Darryl Sharpton: This group was burned in 2008 by the Georgia Tech rushing attack and all eyes will be on them this time around to see if they have learned how to defend the triple option attack. It?s no exaggeration that these three players will have more to do with the outcome of this game than anyone wearing a ?U? on their helmet.

Georgia Tech vs. Miami Thursday Night Factoids


Georgia Tech is 11-11 in Thursday night ESPN games
Miami returns 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense
Georgia Tech returns 10 starters on offense and 8 on defense
Georgia Tech leads the all-time series between these two schools, 10-4
Georgia Tech is 6-2 in games decided by four points or less in coach Paul Johnson's tenure
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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NCAA FOOTBALL WEATHER
GEORGIA TECH
MIAMI-FLA
Thu 7:45 p.m. ET PARTLY CLOUDY. EAST WIND 6-11 84 N/A%
Humid 91
 
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