Colts favored with short-handed offense on Monday

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Colts favored with short-handed offense on Monday

Former divisional rivals will square off on Monday night football when Miami hosts Indianapolis. The teams haven?t met since 2006 and quarterback Peyton Manning, who works and studies as diligently as any player in the game, is being thrown into an uncomfortable situation. Manning was already starting the season without one of his mainstays, Marvin Harrison, now will be without Anthony Gonzalez who replaced him in the starting lineup.

Gonzalez, will be out of the lineup for at least two weeks and as many as two months due to sprained right knee ligaments suffered last week against Jacksonville. That means Manning will be throwing to unfamiliar targets Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie.

At home in the opener, the Colts thoroughly outplayed the Jaguars, outgaining them 365-228 in total yards, but won just 14-12. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a win and no-cover spot.

Miami?s key strength last season was ability to play mistake-free football, the question arises after going from 1-15 to 11-5 division champions in one season, are they possibly somewhere in between after turning the ball over four times last week. It should be noted the Dolphins started 0-2 last season and is 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS against the Colts.

Indianapolis is a three-point favorite with a total of 42 at Sportsbook.com and they?ll face a Miami team that is 6-9 and awful 3-12 ATS at home during the regular season the last two seasons, which will be looking to snap a three-game SU & ATS skid in home openers. The Colts are 15-5 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Fins are 9-1 OVER off a road loss.

Indianapolis covers if they can force Miami to continue to make turnovers. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are noted for disrupting the quarterback and with an immobile target like Chad Pennington, could raise a great deal of havoc. It might be time to bag the ?stretch? running play in the Colts offense. Manning seems to have a more difficult getting the ball to the backs and the offensive line hasn?t been able to sustain the blocks long enough for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to hit the holes. The runners appear better as one-cut-and-go backs. The Indy defense will see a true ?wildcat? offense for the first time and must contain whatever elements and wrinkles the Dolphins might have in store. The Colts are 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its September road assignments and 15-8 ATS road chalk of three-points or less.

Miami covers if the offensive line establishes itself. Last week top pick T Jake Long was whipped repeatedly by Atlanta?s defense ends, in allowing two sacks and getting no push in the running game. The Colts front is better than the Falcons, meaning the Dolphins have to run the ball to set up play-action passes by Pennington and specialty packages. Miami?s back seven has to cover up Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, making Manning throw to receivers he?s unfamiliar with or dump-offs to running backs for short gains. Smack Addai early, since his enthusiasm for taking shots has waned since his rookie season. The Fins are 7-3 ATS taking on winning teams.

The matchup marks the very first Monday Night football game that was played on this exact date in 1970.

Monday Night Angles ? Road favorites like the Colts are 13-3 ATS when favored by three to four points the last seven years. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS vs. non-division opponents, while Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home dog dating back 29 years.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

MNF - Colts at Dolphins

MNF - Colts at Dolphins

MNF - Colts at Dolphins

Monday Night Football heads to South Florida this week as Miami (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) hosts Indianapolis (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) in a primetime showdown from Land Shark Stadium.

The Colts didn?t look pretty in their 14-12 victory against the Jaguars last Sunday but they did enough to get head coach Jim Caldwell his first win. Peyton Manning (301 yards) was picked off in the endzone on the Colts? first drive but he was efficient (28-of-38) for the most part. Wide receiver Reggie Wayne (10 catches, 162 yards) became the main option for Manning after Anthony Gonzalez (knee) was hurt early in the game. The former Ohio State standout could miss up to eight weeks, so the club recently signed WR Hank Baskett, who was let go by Philadelphia earlier in the week.

Even though the Colts failed to cover as 6 ?-point home favorites and the offense mustered up just 14 points, the final score could?ve been a lot different. Gamblers should be aware that the Colts only punted twice and they did turn the ball over twice in the redzone, including Peyton?s fade pass that was picked. And, Adam Vinatieri missed a makeable field goal too.

After watching Jacksonville lose at 31-17 home on Sunday to Arizona, it?s hard to gauge if the Colts? defense is legit or not. Still, holding any team to 12 points in the NFL is a solid job, especially without the duties of safety Bob Sanders.

Miami?s performance last week against Atlanta was sloppy and it resulted in a 19-7 road loss. The Dolphins? offense (259 yards) struggled from start to finish, and failed to convert on third downs (4-of-11) throughout the game. Plus, the attack had four costly turnovers and four penalties as well. Defensively, the Dolphins did great against the run (68 yards) but QB Matt Ryan (229 yards, 2 TDs) diced up the unit and actually missed putting up bigger numbers.

The Dolphins? secondary will be tested again this week, in particular a pair of rookies in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Even though Manning will be shorthanded without the crafty Gonzalez, tight end Dallas Clark could roam the middle freely like the Falcons? Tony Gonzalez (5 catches, 73 yards) did last Sunday.

Oddsmakers at betED.com opened Indianapolis as a three-point road favorite and the ?over/under? at 42. The line has held steady even though a couple outfits are making gamblers pay $1.20 (Bet $120 to win $100) on the Colts -3.

According to handicapper and his database (1980-2008), the Colts have gone 10-8 ATS under the Monday Night Lights, which includes a 2-0 mark as a road favorite.

Even though the Dolphins will be playing their first home game on Monday Night Football since Dec. 25, 2006, the team used to be a regular in the primetime slot. Miami?s record versus the number is a less than stellar 25-28 ATS. However, the club has shined as home ?dogs on MNF, boasting an 8-3 ledger ATS.

The last meeting between these two teams came in Week 17 of the 2006 season, when Indianapolis beat Miami 27-22 but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite. This setback for the Fins also marked the end of the Nick Saban era in South Florida.

Tony Sparano is the new chief in South Florida and his 11-5 regular season recprd in 2008 was surprising to many. A lot of his club?s success last year can be attributed to their turnover ratio of plus-17, which was the best in the league. As mentioned above, they lost the turnover battle (4-0) in last Sunday?s setback to Atlanta. Even more amazing, they only turned the ball over 13 times last year.

Another key strength of Sparano?s team last year was its ability to win on the road (6-2). We mention that because four of the Dolphins? six losses in 2008 came at home. Miami was listed as a home underdog four times last year and they produced a dismal 1-3 record both SU and ATS, which included its playoff loss to Baltimore.

Indianapolis went 6-3 SU on the road last year but was only 2-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.

Four of the last five between the two teams have gone ?over? the total but some experts don?t believe you?ll see fireworks on Monday. Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet said, ?Indy's offense will not have an easy time establishing the run in Miami, and it's worth noting that aggressive 3-4 alignments such as the Dolphins' have often given Manning fits.?

?The trends show that Miami is on an 8-2 ?under? run its last 10 at home, and with the "Wildcat" not fooling defenses anymore, we can't see Chad Pennington and Miami's often pedestrian, chew-the-clock offensive attack breaking many big plays.?

The schedule makers haven?t treated Indianapolis kindly in the first month of the season. After this game, the Colts must regroup and head to the desert for another primetime (SNF) battle against Arizona (1-1) on just six days rest. You don?t want to call this a must-win for Miami but a sense of urgency is needed considering the team heads to San Diego (1-1) next Sunday.

ESPN will be providing national coverage of this game at 8:30 p.m. EDT.

2009 Monday Night Football Trends - Weekly Schedule

The favorites have gone 2-0 SU on MNF this year
The underdogs have gone 2-0 ATS on MNF
The ?over? has gone 2-0
The first half has watched the ?under? and the underdog go 2-0
The home team is 1-1
CD's Bonus Hits:

Everybody knows the old adage, ?Defense wins Championships? but can anybody cool off Drew Brees and the Saints right now? Putting up 45 and 48 in consecutive weeks says a lot. Will find out in a few weeks how good New Orleans is when it finishes up the New York (Bills, Jets, Giants) trifecta.

How is JaMarcus Russell a starting NFL quarterback? I know the Raiders defeated the Chiefs 13-10 and they could?ve beaten the Chargers (20-24), but seriously. Oakland was outgained 409-166 and Russell?s arm contributed to 109 yards on 7-of-24 (29.2%) passing, which was drop off his 40% effort in Week 1. And to think that came against KC, who gave up 500-plus yards to the Ravens in its opener.

Next week?s best matchup could be in Minnesota when the Vikings (2-0) host the 49ers (2-0) in what should be an old school slug it out game.

Another game to watch would be the Redskins and Lions from Ford Field. That?s just a joke folks, similar to Jim Zorn?s offensive skills as a coach. And Detroit is no better either. Why draft Matthew Stafford No. 1 and then handcuff the kid. Let him sling it all over the field since you?re not going to stop anybody anyway.

Favorites went 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS in Week 1. In the second week, the favorites went 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS. The only ?chalk? to win and not cover was Zorn and his Redskins. The biggest ?dog barking outright on Sunday was Cincinnati (+8) over Green Bay. The ?over? stands at 9-6 heading into Monday?s finale.

Best Team at 2-0:

1) Atlanta ? Two wins albeit at home over playoff teams (MIA, CAR) says something.
2) New Orleans ? Offense is on pace to break all sorts of records
3) Baltimore ? The Ravens are no longer a defensive-first club
4) N.Y. Giants ? Back-to-back division victories will help down the road
5) N.Y. Jets ? Rex Ryan?s defense hasn?t allowed a touchdown yet this year.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Indianapolis Colts
Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return
Anthony Gonzalez WR September 13, 2009 right knee Day-to-Day September 21, 2009
Comments: One day after losing Gonzalez in a 14-12 victory over Jacksonville, Colts coach Jim Caldwell declined to elaborate on the severity of Gonzalez's right knee injury or say how much time the third-year receiver may miss - even though the Colts are clearly discussing their options if Gonzalez is out for a prolonged time.
Charlie Johnson T September 21, 2009 back questionable
Jerraud Powers CB September 21, 2009 groin questionable
Jamey Richard G September 21, 2009 shoulder questionable
Gijon Robinson TE September 21, 2009 back questionable
Bob Sanders S September 21, 2009 knee out
Tom Santi TE September 21, 2009 ankle out
Jamie Silva S September 21, 2009 abdomen questionable

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Miami Dolphins
Player Pos Date Injury Status Expected Return
Akin Ayodele LB September 21, 2009 back questionable
David Martin TE September 7, 2009 right knee IR September 12, 2010
Comments: Martin will miss the season after being placed on the IR with a right knee injury.
Matt Roth LB September 5, 2009 groin IR September 12, 2010
Comments: Roth's absence from the Miami Dolphins will stretch into at least October.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Preview: Colts (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)

Preview: Colts (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)

Preview: Colts (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)

Date: September 21, 2009 8:30 PM EDT

The Indianapolis Colts are playing in Miami for the first time since winning Super Bowl XLI there about 2 1/2 years ago.

Now they hope to not go nearly as long between visits.

The site of this season's Super Bowl will host the 39th anniversary of Monday Night Football as Indianapolis takes on the Dolphins.

This matchup features Colts quarterback Peyton Manning going for his 119th victory, which would break a tie with Johnny Unitas for the franchise record.

"I've never felt comfortable with comparisons with him. I think he's kind of in his own category," said Manning, slated to make his 178th consecutive start. "But I am proud of those wins."

Manning has led Indianapolis to 10 consecutive regular-season victories, though the Colts lost to San Diego in the first round of the playoffs. A deeper trip in the 2009 postseason could send the Colts back to Land Shark Stadium for Super Bowl XLIV on Feb. 7.

It's the same venue where Indianapolis won the Super Bowl following the 2006 season, and the team has an eye on returning under first-year coach Jim Caldwell.

The Colts were not overly impressive in Caldwell's debut, though they did get a win over a team they have had some trouble against in recent years, beating Jacksonville 14-12 last Sunday.

"I saw a coach that was very happy," Reggie Wayne told the Colts' official Web site after making 10 catches for 162 yards. "Whether we won by 30 or one, a 'W' is a 'W'. I am sure if we win by 30 it looks a lot better, but for him to get his first 'W' as a head coach, everybody was excited for him. He was excited."

Wayne caught the lone touchdown pass thrown by Manning, who was 28 of 38 for 301 yards but also tossed an interception in the end zone.

The three-time league MVP is 18-3 in September since the start of the 2003 season and has helped Indianapolis win seven of its last eight Monday night games.

This is the 40th season of Monday Night Football and this game takes place exactly 39 years to the day of the first telecast. Cleveland beat the New York Jets 31-21 on Sept. 21, 1970.

The Dolphins haven't played on a Monday night since Christmas 2006, mainly because they had been one of the league's worst teams until their turnaround 2008 season. Miami went 11-5 and won the AFC East last year, a 10-win increase that tied the 1999 Colts' league record for the best one-year improvement.

Miami would lose 27-9 to Baltimore in the wild-card round and its 2009 opener didn't go any better, as it fell 19-7 at Atlanta. Chad Pennington's touchdown pass to Ricky Williams with 3:22 to play prevented the Dolphins from being shut out for the first time in an opener.

"When you put a performance out there like that, you can't wait for the next game to get here," tight end Anthony Fasano said.

Fasano lost two fumbles while Pennington lost one, threw an interception and was sacked four times. Pennington tossed four interceptions among the Dolphins' five turnovers in the playoff loss, giving them nine in two games after tying an NFL record in 2008 for the fewest in a season with 13.

"No turnover is forgivable in my mind," second-year coach Tony Sparano said.

His offense now faces a Colts defense that is more opportunistic under Caldwell and new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer.

Indianapolis limited the Jaguars to 228 yards - among the lowest totals of Week 1 - and consistently pressured David Garrard into quick throws, limiting him to 14-of-28 passing for 128 yards.

"I'd say we blitzed upward of 10 times Sunday, and that's about 10 more times than we've done in the past," linebacker Gary Brackett joked. "Last year, that wasn't really our philosophy. We had some blitzes, but they were mostly run blitzes."

Miami had limited success running the ball - Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 82 rushing yards - and its much-heralded wildcat formation didn't work well. Rookie Pat White was used in it for three plays that netted 1 yard.

"When the wildcat works, everybody loves it," Pennington said. "When it doesn't, everybody hates it."

The Colts offense will be missing starting wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, who will miss at least two weeks and as many as eight due to sprained right knee ligaments suffered in the opener.

Manning confirmed Indianapolis has signed former Philadelphia receiver Hank Baskett to fill Gonzalez's spot. The only other wideouts on the Colts' roster besides Wayne - second-year pro Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie - have combined for nine NFL receptions.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

INDIANAPOLIS (1-0) vs MIAMI (0-1)

Game Time: 8:35 p.m. EDT Monday, September 21

Stadium: Pro Player Stadium Surface: grass

RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
INDIANAPOLIS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1
Last 5 games 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1
YTD vs. Div. 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
MIAMI HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1
Last 5 games 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1
YTD vs. Div. 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
INDIANAPOLIS 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 1
MIAMI 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0

TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

INDIANAPOLIS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun JAC 14 - 12 W -7.5 -6.5 L -4.5 43.0 45.0 U -19.0 T

MIAMI
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun @ATL 7 - 19 L +4 +4 L -8 43.0 44.0 U -18.0 T

PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
12/31/06 Sun MIA 22 IND 27 -8.0 -9.0 IND --4 42.0 43.5 O +-5.5 T

STATISTICAL AVERAGES:

AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (off)
MIA (def)
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (def)
MIA (off)
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (off) 14.0 21 31 71 2.3 38 28 0.7 294 7.7 365 1.0 1.0 .00
MIA (def) 19.0 19 27 68 2.5 36 22 0.6 213 5.9 281 0.0 0.0 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (def) 12.0 12 26 114 4.4 28 14 0.5 114 4.1 228 0.0 0.0 .00
MIA (off) 7.0 16 22 96 4.4 30 21 0.7 163 5.4 259 1.0 3.0 .00

SCORING AVERAGES:

INDIANAPOLIS (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR
POINTS ALLOWED

MIAMI (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR
POINTS ALLOWED

INDIANAPOLIS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 0.0 7.0 7 7.0 0.0 0.0 7
POINTS ALLOWED 0.0 6.0 6 0.0 6.0 0.0 6

MIAMI (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 7.0 0.0 7
POINTS ALLOWED 0.0 10.0 10 6.0 3.0 0.0 9

VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
INDIANAPOLIS 56 -1.0
MIAMI 51.5 2.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 40.5 1.5 under

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

BETUS LINE MOVEMENTS

BETUS LINE MOVEMENTS

BETUS LINE MOVEMENTS
Money Line Spread Total 1st Half 2nd Half
Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog
09/14 9:31am MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -120 MIA+3 +100 43 43
09/14 11:09am MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -120 MIA+3 +100 42.5 42.5
09/14 11:15am MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -120 MIA+3 +100 42 42
09/14 3:37pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -125 MIA+3 +105 42 42
09/15 12:53pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -120 MIA+3 +100 42 42
09/16 9:27am IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3 -125 MIA+3 +105 42 42
09/17 10:39am IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3 -125 MIA+3 +105 42 42 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/18 9:28am IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3 -125 MIA+3 +105 42 42 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/20 9:51am IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3 -115 MIA+3 -105 42 42 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/20 10:28am IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3 -120 MIA+3 +100 42 42 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/21 1:13pm IND-170 MIA+150 IND-3 -120 MIA+3 +100 41 41 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

BODOG LINE MOVEMENTS

BODOG LINE MOVEMENTS

BODOG LINE MOVEMENTS
Money Line Spread Total 1st Half 2nd Half
Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog
09/14 9:31am MIA XX IND XX MIAXX INDXX XX XX MIAXX INDXX
09/14 5:59pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -120 MIA+3 EVEN XX XX INDXX MIAXX
09/15 8:8am MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -125 MIA+3 +105
09/15 7:54pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3 -125 MIA+3 +105 42 -115 42 -105 INDXX MIAXX
09/15 8:04pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3.5 +105 MIA+3.5 -125 42 -115 42 -105 INDXX MIAXX
09/16 5:07pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3.5 +105 MIA+3.5 -125 42 42 INDXX MIAXX
09/18 5:39pm MIA XX IND XX IND-3.5 +105 MIA+3.5 -125 42 42 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/18 5:48pm IND-170 MIA+150 IND-3.5 +105 MIA+3.5 -125 42 42 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/18 11:14pm IND-170 MIA+150 IND-3.5 EVEN MIA+3.5 -120 42 -115 42 -105 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/20 9:51pm IND-170 MIA+150 IND-3.5 -105 MIA+3.5 -115 42 -115 42 -105 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/21 1:11pm IND-170 MIA+150 IND-3.5 -110 MIA+3.5 -110 42 -105 42 -115 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/21 1:15pm IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3.5 -110 MIA+3.5 -110 41.5 -105 41.5 -115 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5
09/21 1:20pm IND-175 MIA+155 IND-3.5 -110 MIA+3.5 -110 41.5 -105 41.5 -115 IND-1.5 MIA+1.5

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Colts, Fins hook up on MNF

Colts, Fins hook up on MNF

Colts, Fins hook up on MNF

The Miami Dolphins find themselves in an early must-win situation Monday night against the Indianapolis Colts.

Miami is a three-point home dog at
.com with an Over/Under of 42 points. With the NY Jets (2-0) beating New England this week, Miami needs a win to avoid being two games back in the AFC East.

Miami lost 19-7 at Atlanta last week and also failed to cover the four-point spread. The Dolphins were great at limiting turnovers in their 11-5 regular season last year, but they coughed it up four times (three fumbles, one interception) against the Falcons. That?s a recipe for disaster in the NFL.

One good part of Miami?s game last week was the run defense. They held Atlanta?s Michael Turner to just 65 yards on 22 carries. The Falcons had the league?s second best rushing attack last year.

The Miami offense is the bigger question mark heading into this game. Running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown should have success against a Colts defense that is still missing safety Bob Sanders. Running the ball will also burn the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field.

Quarterback Chad Pennington has now had two poor games in a row if you go back to last year?s playoff game vs. Baltimore. The Dolphins don?t want to rely on Pennington?s arm to win this game.

Note that Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home dog.

Peyton Manning is the key as always

Indianapolis started their season on a winning note last week, 14-12 over Jacksonville. Indianapolis failed to cover the 6.5 point spread at home and is now just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.

New coach Jim Caldwell was happy with the win, but not with losing injured receiver, Anthony Gonzalez indefinitely. The Colts could muster only 77 rushing yards last Sunday and Manning may need to throw for 300 yards again.

Gonzalez? absence takes away a good third receiving option after Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark. With Indy unlikely to run the ball well in Miami, you should see more short passes to running backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.

Miami is rotating two rookies, Sean Smith and Vontae Davis, at one of the cornerback spots, so Manning will test them early and often.

Indy is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite between .5-3 points. They?re 5-1 ATS in their last six games on Monday.

Miami has covered five of the last six meetings between the teams. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games.

Senor Capper · Sep 21, 2009

Miami has the Colts number, going 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and the underdog in this series has covered the spread in the last nine. :scared

:director: Land Shark Stadium should be rockin'

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

FINS TO THE LEFT

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Monday night debate: Who'll cover the spread?

Monday night debate: Who'll cover the spread?

Monday night debate: Who'll cover the spread?

We decided to get a little bit more of a bias to our Monday night debate. We got the best perspective on the two teams involved in Monday's game with the help of the best blog site for each side. Joe Baker of Stampede Blue tells you why the Colts are the team to back, while Matty Infante of ThePhinsider.com explains why Miami is a live dog.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (+3, 42)

The Indy argument

Joe Baker, associate editor of Stampede Blue

What's your biggest concern for the Colts heading into their game against Miami?

The Colts tackles against Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Last week Charlie Johnson played his best game since filling in for the injured Ryan Diem in the second half of Superbowl XLI, but in the two years between he struggled when forced to start at either tackle spot. On the other side is Ryan Diem. He's by far the biggest Colts lineman and has the power you'd expect from a RT, but has always had trouble against speed rushes.

What's the biggest advantage Indy has in the matchup against the Dolphins?

Two great receiving tight ends, along with WRs that demand attention, for Peyton to throw to. The Dolphins couldn't cover Tony Gonzalez Week 1 and had issues containing lesser tight ends in preseason. Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are speedy TE/WR hybrids that should give any Fins linebacker attempting to cover them fits. Reggie Wayne will demand double coverage and Pierre Garcon has deep speed, which makes putting a safety on Clark and/or Tamme a risky proposition.

Why do you think the Colts will cover the spread?

They have the bulk to keep from getting run over, with three 300+ pound DTs in their four-man rotation, as opposed to starting 265 and 254 pound DTs through the majority of last season. Freeney and Mathis should have no problems getting a pass rush against a line that gave up four sacks against Jon Abraham and Kroy Biermann (who?). Last, and most importantly, they have Peyton Manning with more than enough weapons around him, Wayne, Clark, Addai and Don Brown with Tamme/Garcon/Collie filling the gap left by Gonzalez's injury.

Final score prediction: Colts 24, Dolphins 17

Why not Miami?

Matty Infante, chief editor of thephinsider.com

What worries you about the Dolphins Monday against the Colts?

Two words: Peyton Manning. The Dolphins still have a questionable secondary. Cornerbacks Sean Smith and Vontae Davis are very talented but very young. And having to count on those two players to have significant roles to go along with a safety tandem (Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson) that is still trying to learn how to work together really scares me to death when Manning is the guy under center.

What strength or edge do you see Miami having vs. Indy?

I think the biggest edge the Dolphins have over the Colts is up front on defense. Miami?s front seven is very good and should have a good day going up against Indy?s offensive line. Last week, the Dolphins shut down one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, Joey Porter and Jason Taylor should be able to get pressure on Manning off the edge. The Colts had problems all preseason protecting Peyton and there?s no reason why the Dolphins shouldn?t be able to dominate up front defensively.

Why do you think Miami will cover the spread?

The Dolphins will be able to run the football all night long against the Colts. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should combine for at least 120 yards on the ground, keeping the score relatively low and keeping Peyton Manning off of the field. Defensively, I expect the Dolphins to get after Manning and make him uncomfortable in the pocket all game long. As long as the Dolphins don?t turn the ball over, they?ll keep the score close and could even pull off the upset win in front of what will be a very loud crowd in Land Shark Stadium.

Final score prediction: Dolphins 23, Colts 21

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Book: Sharps betting the under in Monday night football

Book: Sharps betting the under in Monday night football

Book: Sharps betting the under in Monday night football

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins

Line/total: We opened the Colts -3 -120 and we haven't moved off that number. So far about 75 percent of the action is on the Colts and I believe we'll be adjusting the money assigned to the line, going from -3-120 to -3-125 at some point today.

We opened the total at 42.5 and we took sharp action under that number. We?ve dropped the number 42 as a result. We were booking great, two-way action at 42, but we did see more sharp action bet it under 42 this morning so we've gone to 41. I'm sure the public will start betting this game over and I'm sure we'll go to 41.5 as we get closer to game time.

Key Injuries:

Colts - SS Jamie Silva and OT Charlie Johnson have both been upgraded to Probable. G Jamey Richard and TE Tom Santi have both been downgraded to doubtful. WR Hank Baskett was acquired last week. WR Anthony Gonzalez and S Bob Sanders are both out for tonight's game.

Dolphins - LB Jason Taylor upgrade to probable.

Comments: Dolphins are coming off a tough road loss to the Falcons last week. They were thoroughly dominated by the Falcons, gaining only 259 total yards and committing four turnovers. Turnovers are a huge point of emphasis for Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano. Look for them to take better care of the ball tonight.

While the Colts won last week, they failed to cover against the Jags. The Colts have won seven of their last eight games on Monday night, while the Dolphins have lost four of their last five games on Monday night.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Trends - Indianapolis at Miami

Trends - Indianapolis at Miami

Trends - Indianapolis at Miami

ATS Trends

Indianapolis

Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Colts are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Colts are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Colts are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

Miami

Dolphins are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Dolphins are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.
Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Dolphins are 4-10-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Dolphins are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Dolphins are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Dolphins are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 2.

OU Trends

Indianapolis

Under is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Colts last 7 vs. AFC.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games overall.
Over is 23-9 in Colts last 32 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 10-4 in Colts last 14 games in September.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games in Week 2.
Over is 17-8 in Colts last 25 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Miami

Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 home games.
Under is 10-2 in Dolphins last 12 games in Week 2.
Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-2 in Dolphins last 9 games on grass.
Over is 7-2 in Dolphins last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 24-8 in Dolphins last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. AFC.
Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games in September.
Over is 11-5 in Dolphins last 16 Monday games.
Under is 27-13 in Dolphins last 40 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Head to Head

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

NFL Preview - Indianapolis (1-0) at Miami (0-1)

NFL Preview - Indianapolis (1-0) at Miami (0-1)

NFL Preview - Indianapolis (1-0) at Miami (0-1)

The Indianapolis Colts already have some rather fond remembrances of Land Shark Stadium, but the perennial AFC powerhouse would like to create one more warm memory when the team steps onto the field against the Miami Dolphins this Monday night in a matchup between a pair of 2008 playoff participants.

The Colts' most recent visit to Miami came on February 4, 2007, when the historic franchise seized its fourth NFL championship with a 29-17 victory over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. The team followed up that monumental win with a pair of postseason appearances in each of the past two years, but underwent a major shift in leadership when highly-successful head coach Tony Dungy announced his retirement in January following an accomplished seven-year reign.

The change has yet to keep the Colts from maintaining their usual winning ways, although they had to scratch and claw their way to a hard-fought 14-12 triumph over a pesky Jacksonville squad last week. A determined defense withstood a failed two-point conversion attempt by the Jaguars that would have tied the score with just over 11 minutes to play, then prevented its AFC South rival from gaining a single first down the rest of the way to usher in new sideline boss Jim Caldwell's debut on a positive note.

Peyton Manning did his part as well in the season-opening win, with the reigning NFL MVP throwing for 301 yards and a touchdown while completing 28- of-38 attempts. The victory was the 118th of Manning's storied 12-year career, which tied the legendary Johnny Unitas for the most by a quarterback in Colts history.

The defending AFC East titlist Dolphins failed to get their 2009 campaign off to a desired start, putting forth an uncharacteristically sloppy performance in a 19-7 road loss to Atlanta in Week 1. After committing a league-low 13 giveaways during the entire 16-game schedule last season, Miami turned the ball over four times against the Falcons, two of which halted drives in enemy territory.

While the Dolphins will be hoping to avoid an 0-2 start on Monday, last year's team proved that such an undesired beginning isn't necessarily a crippling blow. After losing its first two tests of last season, Miami ripped off 11 wins over the next 14 games to edge out New England for the AFC East crown.

SERIES HISTORY

Miami owns a 44-23 advantage in its all-time regular season series against Indianapolis, but has lost each of its past two meetings with the Colts. Indy was a 27-22 home winner over Miami when the teams met in the 2006 regular season finale, a game that marked the final game in the two-year tenure of Dolphins head coach Nick Saban. Five weeks after beating Miami, Indy claimed the Super Bowl title. Indianapolis was a 23-17 winner when it last played a road game against the Dolphins, in 2003. The Fins last beat the Colts in 2002, at the RCA Dome, and last won a home game in the series in 2001. The Colts and Dolphins met twice per season as members of the AFC East from 1970 through 2001.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met twice in postseason play. Miami was a 23-17 overtime winner in a 2000 AFC First-Round Playoff at Dolphin Stadium (the franchise's most recent postseason victory), and also defeated the Baltimore Colts (21-0) in the 1971 AFC Championship.

Caldwell and the Dolphins' Tony Sparano will be meeting each other, as well as their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time as head coaches.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

As always, the Indianapolis offense is driven by the strong and accurate right arm of Manning (301 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT last week), who was able to overcome the loss of valued wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez in the first quarter of Sunday's win and deliver his 48th career 300-yard game. With Gonzalez suffering a serious knee injury that will keep the third-year pro out until at least mid-October, top wideout Reggie Wayne took on more of the load in the passing game and burned the Jaguars for 162 yards on 10 catches, including a key 35-yard touchdown grab in the third quarter. Tight end Dallas Clark (4 receptions) gives Manning a second reliable option, but one or both of the unproven receiver duo of sophomore Pierre Garcon (3 receptions) and rookie Austin Collie (2 receptions) will have to grow up in a hurry for the Colts' aerial attack to be in peak form. Expect running backs Joseph Addai (42 rushing yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions) and Donald Brown (33 rushing yards, 2 receptions) to be more involved as receivers as well on Monday. The tandem didn't offer much of a run threat against Jacksonville, finishing with a meager 75 yards on a combined 28 attempts.

Addai and Brown could find the going tough once more against a Miami defense that held Atlanta standout Michael Turner to 65 yards on 22 carries last week and finished 10th against the rush (101.3 ypg) during the team's remarkable 2008 turnaround. The Dolphins possess two very good run-stopping safeties in strong-side starter Yeremiah Bell (8 tackles, 1 PD) and offseason pickup Gibril Wilson (9 tackles), the club's top two tacklers in the Week 1 loss, as well as a pair of proven veteran pass rushers in outside linebackers Joey Porter (3 tackles) and Jason Taylor (2 tackles), who posted a sack of the Falcons' Matt Ryan in his return to Miami following an ill-fated one-year moonlight with the Redskins. Those two will be counted on to bring the heat upon Manning and protect a vulnerable secondary that allowed Ryan to throw for 229 yards and two scores last week and has two rookies -- starting right corner Sean Smith (2 tackles, 2 PD) and nickel back Vontae Davis (1 tackle) holding down important roles.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

The most effective way to hold off the Colts is to keep Manning off the field, so expect running backs Ronnie Brown (43 rushing yards, 3 receptions) and Ricky Williams (39 rushing yards, 2 receptions) to be a more focal part of the Dolphins' game plan on Monday. The two only had 17 carries against Atlanta after the team fell behind by double digits in the second half. That should in turn ease the pressure on quarterback Chad Pennington (176 passing yards, 1 TD), who had an atypical two turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) and was sacked four times by an aggressive Falcons' front. The cerebral signal-caller didn't get much help from an ordinary corps of receivers except for diminutive slotman Davone Bess, who led Miami with seven catches totaling 57 yards. Former first-round draft choice Ted Ginn Jr. came up with only two receptions for 26 yards, while tight end Anthony Fasano (2 receptions) had two fumbles that helped stall the offense. The Dolphins finished the game with only 259 total yards.

One of the Colts' primary weaknesses in recent years has been an inability to contain power-based ground attacks. Indianapolis surrendered an average of nearly 123 rushing yards per game (24th overall) a year ago and permitted 97 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts to Jacksonville dynamo Maurice-Jones Drew in the opener. The unit is expected to be without game-changing strong safety Bob Sanders for a second straight outing while the 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year continues to recover from offseason knee surgery, but will get back starting tackle Ed Johnson after he served a one-game suspension last week for violating the league's drug policy. The Colts did an excellent job at defending the pass versus the Jaguars, forcing quarterback David Garrard into a poor 50 percent completion rate and only 122 yards for the game. After struggling against Atlanta's speed rushers in Week 1, the Dolphins will face a pair of very good ones in four-time Pro Bowl honoree Dwight Freeney (2 tackles, 1 sack) and fellow end Robert Mathis (3 tackles).

FANTASY FOCUS

The Colts have two must-starts on the roster in Manning and Wayne, whose already-high value is increased even further due to Gonzalez's injury. Clark is a legitimate No. 1 tight end as well, but Indianapolis' heavy reliance on the pass and its timeshare approach in the backfield make both Addai and Donald Brown only lukewarm plays. Addai would make a fine choice in leagues that reward points for receptions, however, as he'll probably be used often in that role in the coming weeks. The Dolphins offer fewer enticing options other than Ronnie Brown, a 10-touchdown scorer a year ago who should get plenty of touches in the team's anticipated ball-control philosophy. Every Miami receiver carries a great deal of risk, although Fasano has some intrigue as a tight end who's shown to be an impact player in the red zone in the past. Sit Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri this week, as the veteran has been bothered by a hip injury and will be competing in a game that could potentially shape up as a low-scoring affair.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Last week's suspect showing in the Georgia Dome has given some ammunition to those who believe the Dolphins were a one-year wonder and a product of a soft last-place schedule. While that may turn out to be the case, there's growing evidence that the Colts aren't the dynasty they once were either, and a two- point home victory over a Jacksonville team with virtually no threat of a passing game lends a bit of support to that argument. Indianapolis could have trouble matching the Dolphins' physicality on offense, while Miami's defense is good enough to prevent Manning, who has fewer playmakers to work with than in years past and is standing behind a shaky offensive line, from going wild. If the Dolphins do a better job of protecting the football than in the opener, they should have a reasonable chance of quieting their skeptics with a notable win over a name opponent.

Predicted Outcome: Dolphins 17, Colts 14

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

NFL Matchup - Indianapolis at Miami

NFL Matchup - Indianapolis at Miami

NFL Matchup - Indianapolis at Miami

Indianapolis Colts (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Date: Monday, September 21st
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. (et)
Site: Land Shark Stadium (75,192) -- Miami Gardens, Florida
Surface: Grass (PAT)
Home Record: Indianapolis 1-0; Miami 0-0
Away Record: Indianapolis 0-0; Miami 0-1
Versus A-F-C: Indianapolis 1-0; Miami 0-0
Current Win/Loss Streak: Indianapolis 1W; Miami 2L (1 in playoffs)
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: Indianapolis 1L (playoffs)
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: Miami 1L (playoffs)
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, Jon Gruden, Suzy Kolber, Michele Tafoya
All-Time Series: Indianapolis (46-23 -- 2-0 in playoffs)
Last Meeting: December 31, 2006 (Indianapolis, 27-22 at Indianapolis)
Series Streak: Indianapolis has won two straight, Miami three of past five.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Top 5 Trend
IND
MIA Under is 6-1 in MIA last 7 games overall.
IND
MIA Under is 6-1 in IND last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
IND
MIA Under is 6-1 in IND last 7 vs. AFC.
IND
MIA Under is 10-2 in MIA last 12 games in Week 2.
IND
MIA Under is 5-1 in MIA last 6 home games.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Monday Night Football remains special to Miami Dolphins

Monday Night Football remains special to Miami Dolphins

Monday Night Football remains special to Miami Dolphins

To most current NFL players, Frank, Howard, Dandy Don and Halftime Highlights exist only as cackling reminiscences of older relatives. They are more likely to be wistful over Chris Berman on ESPN's NFL Primetime imitating Howard Cosell's Halftime Highlights cadence. The whole show's become somewhat of an epilogue, subjugated in stature and treatment to the Sunday night game.
But it's still Monday Night Football. Monday night's Dolphins home opener against the Colts celebrates the 40th season of the football show CBS rejected because it didn't want to move The Doris Day Show. And if a flair-filled home opener against one of the NFL's glamour quarterbacks doesn't put a hump in the hype curve, the Monday night stage does.

``Everybody, your peers, gets a chance to watch you play,'' Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter said. ``You get a chance to get on the stage and make an impact. If they forgot about you, it's a chance to reintroduce yourself. A lot of times, we don't get a chance to watch each other play unless you have a late game or you watch them on film. There's nothing like showing up on a big game on Monday night.''

Though the NFL now gives NBC's Sunday night game the premier matchups or event games it once tossed to Monday Night Football, the league doesn't show off its Detroits on Monday night. Or, recently, its Dolphins. Monday night hasn't been aqua-tinged since a Christmas night, 2006, Dolphins home loss to the Jets, a game scheduled after the Dolphins' surprising 9-7 2005 season.

Similarly, this return to prime time counts as NFL acknowledgement that the Dolphins' 11-5 2008 season made them showcase-worthy again.

``We played 16 one o'clock games last year,'' Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said. ``I think I got the point.''

Dolphins rookie cornerback Sean Smith (31) and many of his young teammates eagerly await their first 'Monday Night Football' game.

PLACE TO BE

That the Dolphins organization under new majority owner Stephen Ross desires a more electric feel for home games isn't hard to grasp, either. The team sent out a news release reminding media that the ``Orange Carpet'' treatment will be given to honorary captains and Hall of Fame quarterbacks Dan Marino and Bob Griese; limited partners Venus and Serena Williams; Gloria and Emilio Estefan; and Marc Anthony and his wife Jennifer Lopez.

The pregame video will feature Fergie from The Black-Eyed Peas.

Like generations of fans, players raised in the Eastern and Central time zones recall cajoling parents into later bedtimes or quality dawdling on the way to bed just to catch some Monday night games. Dolphins right guard Donald Thomas recalls faking extra homework or augmenting his shower when he wasn't watching the game with his father.

``He used to let me stay up later before I had to go to bed,'' Thomas said. ``To be able to play on Monday night -- I don't think I've grasped it yet.''

That's the danger for young players such as Thomas, Dolphins offensive tackle Jake Long and Dolphins rookie cornerbacks Sean Smith and Vontae Davis. Just as in the first NFL game or first playoff game, it's easy for a Monday night first timer to boil over with adrenaline.

OVEREAGER

Smith and Davis know they will be targeted by Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning. Smith, especially, sounded as if he couldn't wait. If that enthusiasm morphs into overenthusiasm, spotlight veterans such as Manning or wide receiver Reggie Wayne know how to use that to turn dream moments into nightmare nights.

``When the players are out there on the field, there has to be accountability to one another out there,'' Sparano said. ``The veteran leaders on this team who have been down this road before, Monday Night Football and all that stuff, it is their responsibility to help the younger guys stay even keel. I want them to be excited, but you can be excited in this game and be so excited that next thing you know the ball is going over your head somewhere.''

Dolphins nose guard Jason Ferguson remembers linebacker Pepper Johnson, who spent his last two NFL seasons with the Jets and reunited with Bill Parcells, being that veteran voice early in his career.

``He's a guy who always calmed me down when I was too hyped,'' Ferguson said. ``I was making more out of it than I wanted to, using all my energy on the first play. He always said, `You're feeling all that energy, but you know you've got to play the whole game. It isn't just about the first play.' ''

SAGE ADVICE

Now, it's Ferguson, Porter, linebacker Jason Taylor and quarterback Chad Pennington who will try to get young teammates in key roles to start at the proper temperature. Ferguson's advice is simple:

``It is a big game, every game is. Treat it like you've been doing all your life. It is football. So, just have fun with it.''

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Miami Dolphins must line up for the big show

Miami Dolphins must line up for the big show

Miami Dolphins must line up for the big show

The public relations release breathlessly blares that paparazzi and legitimate media should be in place early for the ``Orange Carpet'' arrival of the ``A-list'' celebrities.
Monday Night Football will be continuing its 40th anniversary celebration in full view of a national audience, marking the first time since 1975 the Dolphins open the home portion of their regular-season schedule on prime time.

A Jimmy Buffett pregame concert is rumored. There's a new fan experience promised. Even the stadium is spiced up with fresh Romero Britto graffiti, I mean, paint.

Everybody, it seems, has noticed Monday is special.

``I am excited about it,'' Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said. ``I have said this before, and this I no small thing. I think people are genuinely looking forward to this game -- the game, the event, all the things that go with being involved in Monday Night Football and the national spotlight.''

It promises to be a big-scale event, even by South Florida's cynical standards.

But with all due respect to the fireworks, the umbrella-garnished-drinks and the loud sound track, this game, at its raw, bloody core, will be about the Dolphins' offensive line.

Crazy isn't it?

The Dolphins are officially embracing the limelight, but their success Monday night depends on men who toil in relative anonymity.

The team is putting the faces of Jennifer Lopez and Gloria Estefan and the Williams sisters out front, but men hidden behind facemasks will decide victory or defeat.

There is irony in what these Dolphins are becoming this year under the unlikely partnership of new owner Stephen Ross and old-school football man Bill Parcells.

Ross paid $1.1 billion for the Dolphins, and he is remaking the marketing and business side of the organization as he sees fit. And he sees an organization that wins, sure, but does so in showtime fashion, making the game day experience a gala event of sorts.

Ross has a lot of unsold season tickets he would like to get rid of. And expanding the fan base to include people attracted to celebrity and glitz and autographs is one way to do that.

Parcells, 68, is in charge of the football side and all he wants -- aside from being free of an new owner's meddling -- is to build a lunch-pail team that plays hard, plays smart and plays to as little fanfare as the NFL would allow.

So while Ross hosts his celebrity friends and minority owners and shows off his grand vision for event football, Parcells likely will have his binoculars focused on his offensive line.

BUILDING BLOCKS

Miami's line is supposed to be the team strength now because that is where Parcells, Jeff Ireland and Sparano have put the most emphasis since coming to South Florida.

Miami's first free agent signee under Parcells? Left guard Justin Smiley, who agreed to a contract 23 minutes after the start of free agency in 2008.

Miami's first draft pick under Parcells? Left tackle Jake Long, who remains the NFL's highest-paid lineman at an average of more than $10 million per season.

When free agency rolled around again last spring, the Dolphins opened the bank for more linemen. Right tackle Vernon Carey was re-signed for $42 million, and center Jake Grove was added for $29.5 million.

The five beefy dudes up front are costing the Dolphins a fat $156 million in total contracts. Four of them make more than any quarterback or receiver on the roster.

So this line should be the team strength, the team's foundation, the team's unquestioned epicenter.

PRODUCE OR ELSE

And what happens when the line doesn't meet those expectations, but instead yields four sacks, including one that leads to a fumble, as it did in the opener at Atlanta?

``It could be bad,'' Smiley said recently. ``I agree with that 100 percent. I have a saying: `Heavy is the head that wears the crown.' They give you a lot. They expect a lot in return.

``And this is a high-performance business. It's like, you may like your pool guy, but if you come home and your pool is dirty, you're getting a new pool guy. That's the bottom line. We got to be able to get it done.''

So while the rest of the country is caught up in the fanfare of prime time football, while the fans at Land Shark Stadium are immersed in the new experience Ross has promised, look to the shadows and the trenches where Miami's offensive line works.

That's where this game will be won or lost.

Lumi · Sep 21, 2009

Who has the edge: Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

Who has the edge: Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

Who has the edge: Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

WHEN THE DOLPHINS RUN THE BALL
The Dolphins try to strike a balance between Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams but failed last week in getting either player involved in the attack. The two combined for 17 carries, which is about what Brown averaged by himself last season. The Miami offensive line failed to push aside a run defense that was only 25th in the NFL last season. The Colts are traditionally solid against the run when strong safety Bob Sanders is in the lineup. He wasn't there last week, and Indy is No. 23 versus the run now. He isn't likely to be in the lineup against Miami.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS PASS THE BALL

The Dolphins successfully got Davone Bess involved in the passing game last week, which is good. But the team needs to incorporate Ted Ginn Jr. in the game plan, and that was a failure last week. Despite last week's fumbles, the Dolphins will continue to throw to tight ends. Colts cornerbacks Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Jackson are in their prime and getting good support by a pass rush led by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Passing against Indy is a tough and often painful proposition for a quarterback.

WHEN THE COLTS RUN THE BALL

Neither Joseph Addai nor rookie Donald Brown is an elite player. They combined for 75 yards on 28 carries against Jacksonville, as cracks created by the offensive line were rare. The Dolphins, on the other hand, did outstanding work against Atlanta's vaunted running game last week. The Falcons, the No. 2 rush offense in the NFL a year ago, managed only 2.5 yards per rush against Miami. Phillip Merling, Jason Taylor, Jason Ferguson and others led a charge that stopped the Falcons' run cold. It wasn't a fluke -- expect more of the same.

WHEN THE COLTS PASS THE BALL

Peyton Manning started his firstNFL game against the Dolphins in 1999. He has come a long way since then. Manning has lost his head coach, offensive coordinator, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and left tackle Tarik Glenn. But the Dolphins remain rightly respectful of the fact Manning still gets rid of the ball quickly, still shows excellent field generalship and does some fine commercials, too. After struggling with Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez last week, the Dolphins must contain outstanding Indy tight end Dallas Clark a little better this week. Might not be a surprise if Miami matches up on Clark with a cornerback rather than a safety.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One assumes kicker Adam Vinatieri remains a clutch performer while the rest of Indy's special teams remain solid. One must assume these things because last week's season opener offered little evidence to confirm or contradict that. The Colts and Jaguars didn't do much kicking off or punting or covering of kickoffs in a sleepy 14-12 Indy victory. Miami's special teams, an unpredictable roller-coaster ride throughout the preseason, settled down in the season opener and also offered neither highlights nor terrible moments. Obviously, Dan Carpenter has the experience of kicking off the dirt infield over Vinatieri, but this advantage is muted by Vinatieri's longevity.

COACHING

It isn't really fitting to describe Jim Caldwell as a rookie coach because he has been instrumental in Indy's offensive excellence dating to 2002. But the fact remains Caldwell is taking on the duties of departed Tony Dungy, and no matter how immersed he might be in all things Colts, he must prove himself. Tony Sparano is as proven as you can become in one season, but he needs to find ways to overcome his team's sluggish offensive performance of a week ago -- particularly as it related to the fact neither the base offense nor the Wildcat package netted positive results.

LAST MEETING

The Colts and Dolphins last met on December 31, 2006, in the RCA Dome with the Colts pulling out a 27-22 victory in Nick Saban's last game as Miami's coach.

Colts favored with short-handed offense on Monday

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