WEEK 3 NFL INFO

[Lumi]

Opening line report: Books deal with teams in must-win mode

Tom Brady struggled to complete passes Sunday in the face of constant pressure from the New York Jets. Sportsbooks everywhere felt similar heat from a blitz of Jets bettors who threw down cash from time the line opened until kick-off.

Neither the former NFL MVP nor oddsmakers were too happy with the result.

First-year Jets coach Rex Ryan watched his defense get several key stops, and his offense made enough big plays for New York to hold and beat New England 16-9, ending a streak of eight consecutive home losses to its AFC East rival.

Brady, the three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback who is trying to recover from a career-threatening knee injury, looked out of sync. He missed open receivers on some occasions, they dropped passes on others. For the sportsbooks, the unusual circumstance came from needing the Patriots to cover in order to profit on the game. Square and public bettors alike backed the Jets, who opened as -6 to -6.5-point underdog in most books but closed at -3.

?I was surprised that it moved that far, and there was no stop in that move,? said oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich, race and sports director for the Reno-based Club Cal Neva.

For oddsmakers and football bettors, the struggles of the Patriots (1-1), who went 27-5 over the past two regulars seasons, and the resurgence of the Jets (2-0), who were thought to be in rebuilding mode with a rookie head coach and quarterback, are among the season?s early surprises.

?Everyone didn?t know what to expect from the Patriots,? Bogdanovich said. ?The last time Brady was healthy, they set all the records. Now, they are a different team. The offense is a little slower, guys like Randy Moss and Joey Galloway are getting up there in years, and Brady doesn?t look as confident as he once was. The defense is missing (injured linebacker) Jerod Mayo. They are still a good team, but not the juggernaut they once were.?

Conversely, the Jets have made an impression in winning their first two games by a combined score of 40-16.

The Jets-Patriots game wasn?t the only NFL Week 2 tilt that saw bettors cashing and sportsbooks managers cringing. Bogdanovich said four other games saw significant line movements, and his books lost all four. The Ravens moved from a 4-point underdog to a 1-point dog against the San Diego Chargers and still won the game outright 31-26; the New Orleans Saints went from +1 to -3 against the Donovan McNabb-less Philadelphia Eagles and routed them 48-22; the Oakland Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals each moved the line about 3 points before taking home the cash, Oakland beating the Kansas City Chiefs 13-10 and the Bengals downing the Green Bay Packers 31-24.

?When they bet five games, you don?t expect them to go 5-0,? the oddsmaker said. ?You don?t see NFL games moving that much. You think you have a pretty good handle on the NFL odds, and to see this many games move that much is a little surprising.?

Now, oddsmakers are facing the challenge of setting lines for several Week 3 games that involve teams that already desperate to salvage their seasons with a win going against those that are looking to build on their impressive starts. The Patriots open as 4.5-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, while the Jets are a 2.5-point favorite over the visiting Tennessee Titans.

The Titans and the Carolina Panthers combined to go 25-7 last season, and Tennessee?s 13 wins were the most in the NFL. Now, both are 0-2, and history shows an 0-3 start practically guarantees a seat on the couch come playoff time. In the past 15 years, only two of 78 teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs ? the 1995 Detroit Lions and the 1998 Buffalo Bills ? and they each lost in the first round.

?I think coach Jeff Fisher has an experienced group and they know what to do,? Bogdanovich said. ?They won?t panic, and they?ll grind as hard as they can to win the game. But people tend to bet on what they last saw, so I expect the public to be on the Jets.?

Much-maligned quarterback Jake Delhomme and the Panthers are a 9.5-point underdog when they travel for a Monday Night Football game against the Dallas Cowboys, who also are in need of a win after dropping their home opener Sunday to the New York Giants.

?Delhomme has been a problem, but the Panthers have more issues than just him,? Bogdanovich said of Carolina, whose defensive line is depleted by injuries.

One matchup featuring two undefeated teams pits coach Mike Singletary?s hard-nosed San Francisco 49ers against Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings (-7). The 49ers have garnered some attention after beating the NFC champion Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 1 and dominating the Seattle Seahawks 23-10 in their home opener Sunday. But the fact the Vikings are 2-0 after beating up on the likes of Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions isn?t sending shockwaves through most NFL observers.

?I don?t think Minnesota could have scripted it any better,? Bogdanovich said. ?Two soft road games, and Favre gets a chance to get a better grasp of the offense and better chemistry with his teammates. Everything is good for them right now.?

Other Week 3 opening lines include: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5); Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (+6.5); Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-4); Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (off/McNabb injury); Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (+6.5); New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+5.5); Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5); Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7); Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-2.5); Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7); Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (+1).

:toast:

 

[Lumi]

Quarterback Perception and ATS Reality

Quarterback Perception and ATS Reality

Quarterback Perception and ATS Reality

While scanning the internet, I came across someone talking about how they didn?t necessarily agree with an article that former NFL quarterback and current ESPN football analyst Trent Dilfer wrote about NFL quarterbacks. After doing a quick search on Google, found the article where the Dilfer broke down each NFL starting signal caller and placed them into specific categories.

If you?ve heard Dilfer on ESPN, he comes across pretty well, speaks knowledgably about most topics, however he?s not above throwing a bizarre zinger that makes absolutely no sense, which brings his credibility into question.

Articles like the one Dilfer wrote are good fodder for discussion since they are mildly controversial, yet offer interesting opinions. Taking what the former Super Bowl champion quarterback had to say and matchup it up against the realities of betting on sports, let?s see where the two worlds intersect.

Not surprisingly, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are rated as the best in nearly all facets of the game. One of the keys for both is unquestioned preparation and ability to analyze defenses and make adjustments in a split second. For the sports bettor, Brady is the preferred choice. The former Michigan man is 53-39-3 ATS as favorite. Though he and his team have gotten off to slow start, and few doubt New England won?t improve along with their quarterback. Off the loss to the Jets, Brady and the Pats are 18-7 ATS after a straight up defeat. The older Manning has never kept that same company and has unusual record. Possibly because the Indianapolis has been so dominant in winning AFC South over the years, they are overvalued by oddsmakers or these teams are just more familiar with the Colts, they can stymie them. Whatever the reasoning, Manning is 30-44-2 ATS in division games. Get him out of the division and he?s 66-48-3 ATS.

His next group down has Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Though only two games into 2009 campaign, Brees, despite not having typical NFL quarterback stature and size requirements, is head and shoulders above the competition. The New Orleans offense looks like the Patriots of the couple of years ago and the St. Louis Rams ?greatest show on turf? from the Kurt Warner years. Brees has led his team to two 40+ point totals with incredible ball distribution. Though Brees is 26-27-1 ATS in home games, he?s 35-18-4 ATS on the road, including fabulous 12-2 against the spread mark as road favorite after Sunday?s wipeout in Philadelphia.

Philip Rivers has gotten better each year as quarterback and San Diego is now his team. Though he?s a bit too much of a chatterbox, as Dilfer points out, Rivers makes the hardest throws among starting quarterbacks, since Norv Turner?s offense is more vertical, meaning throwing the ball 15-25 yards down the field and he does so with uncanny accuracy. The Chargers have offensive line and defensive issues at the moment, but Rivers and Bolts are still 18-10 ATS at home and 18-8-1 ATS when matched against a team off a loss.

Dilfer?s next batch could be rated higher by others and not many would argue. Remember when Eli Manning was too casual about playing quarterback and didn?t work as hard as his older brother? At the time, all of us weren?t aware NOBODY worked as hard as Peyton. Eli has gone on to earn his own Super Bowl ring and is adroitly moving his game up several notches working with new receivers and having success. Eli?s calm demeanor helps New York be in the right running plays and at two-minute drill time. The younger Manning and the Giants are methodical on the road with 27-12-1 ATS record.

Remember how unorthodox Brett Favre was for years, his replacement is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has two gaudy Super Bowl rings and will likely never receive the true credit he deserves until a few years from now. He?s the best improviser at his position, and keeps plays alive most quarterbacks would just throw the ball away on. He a money-maker on a team that isn?t given the underdog role too often and he?s 14-6 ATS when catching points. Here?s two numbers to remember about Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh is 22-12 ATS with revenge and 20-9 ATS in the AFC North.

Dilfer also likes the productivity of Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck as veterans. Both have become more injury-prone in advancing years. McNabb when healthy is 45-26 ATS away from home and Hasselbeck is 28-17-2 ATS playing in coffee-town.

In his article, Dilfer calls the next group ?knocking on the door?. This is primarily young quarterbacks with promise, who have to take the next step and take their teams to playoffs and start winning those games. Joe Flacco did just that, but was more a game manager than facilitator. In 2009, Flacco shows signs of progress. Matt Ryan is similar to Flacco and has the look of being able to prevent Atlanta from going backwards and making his club a Play On team. Aaron Rodgers is only 7-11 and 9-9 ATS at Green Bay, but he needs pass protection and a defense that stop somebody to take next growth step.

Tony Romo is drifting towards enigma stage. Talent-wise he?s probably Top 5, but his decision-making is horrendous in the biggest games, not unlike how he performed in Giants game this past Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys are always going to be overvalued, but to be 21-21 ATS with the amount of talent surrounding him, not acceptable.

Jay Cutler could be another breakout quarterback, if he shows maturity on and off the field. His spread numbers make most bettors pale (4-17-1 ATS as a favorite comes to mind), yet his ability is unquestioned outside a select few in Denver and if he grows with an unproven group of receivers in Chicago, it might be what he needs in the growth process.

Most of the other quarterbacks are what they are (Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner and Chad Pennington) and aren?t likely to become better without protection and talent around them. Many others like Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Shaun Hill need a solid running game to be most effective.

This is a worthwhile read especially in a league so dependent on one player in a team game. Sports bettors are wise to consider the quarterback matchup each and every game as a possible difference-maker for spread wins and losses.

 

[Lumi]

It?s not panic time in New England, however things are amiss. Tom Brady is just like the rest of us, after being away from your job after major surgery, it takes awhile to get back in the flow and what you have repaired, you don?t trust 100 percent. Sure the New York Jets brought a lot of pressure, but it?s not anything Brady hasn?t seen before. Yet it was clear, he?s not willing to hang onto the ball the extra tick and has made throws the last two weeks that are un-Brady like. Tough tilt with 2-0 Atlanta next.

What?s the biggest difference in the Jets; they have a coach that believes in them. Yes, Mark Sanchez has played well, but Rex Ryan has convinced his players they are good and gives them the freedom to succeed. That never happened under ol? happy pants Eric Mangini. By the way, how good is cornerback Derrelle Revis playing? He?s been matched up primarily against Andre Johnson and Randy Moss the last two weeks. The results ? eight total catches for 59 yards.

The Green Bay Packers defense was shredded by Cincinnati. The worst part was Cedric ?Boat Boy? Benson shredded them on the ground for 141 yards. Coach Mike McCarthy also had a bad game, giving up on the running game that included only 14 rush attempts by running backs in a contest that was either tied or a seven-point game for the first 58 minutes. Not giving more help to offensive tackle who was being destroyed by DE Antawan Odom (five sacks) was ludicrous. Pack at 0-2 St. Louis for first road game.

San Francisco has two division wins already and will be in the NFC West hunt. The 49ers have a defense that lacks big names other than LB Patrick Willis, but don?t be surprised if they are not in Top 10 all season. Offensively, Frank Gore is running with explosiveness again and Shaun Hill won?t make many plays to hurt them. Niners head to Minnesota where they are 0-7 ATS.

San Diego has line problems on both sides of the ball; unfortunately it looks like survival mode again for awhile near Mission Bay. Chargers have Miami on short week at home, however are 0-5 ATS vs the Fins.

Jay Cutler showed Bears fans why he could be great. Cutler hasn?t been in Chicago look enough to find chemistry with receivers, nevertheless against Pittsburgh he was patient and didn?t force plays, which ended up giving his team a chance to win at the end, which they did. Pittsburgh offense is among the many not finishing drives thus far. Chicago has rugged trip to Seattle next and are 5-1 ATS away off a SU dog win.

Did you know Oakland had more first downs (6) in game-winning drive with 2:48 left on the clock, than they had in the entire rest of the game? (5) Raiders playing hard, if not eye-pleasing, could go over .500 for the first time since beginning of 2004 season with a home win over Denver this week.

Dallas was set to secure a real rarity in the NFL until Eli Manning worked magic in two-minute drill. The Cowboys almost won despite 4-0 turnover margin against them. Tony Romo might need glasses since his peripheral vision is awful picking up defensive backs at times. Next week hosting 0-2 Carolina is no bargain for Cowboys who are 4-17-1 ATS off a home loss.

What can you say about Peyton Manning after he led his team to victory. In case you haven?t heard, the Colts only had the ball for 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That's the lowest time of possession for a winning team since the NFL began tracking that statistic in the 1970s. The Indianapolis defense was on the field for 84 plays. Now they have to travel on short week, changing three time zones to Arizona for Sunday. We?ll find out if Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt is really sharp, since it makes all the sense in the world to play hurry up offense to wear down tired Colts defensive legs.

 

[Lumi]

NFL Spread Sheet: AFC flipped upside down

NFL Spread Sheet: AFC flipped upside down

NFL Spread Sheet: AFC flipped upside down


Kyle Orton does not spend a lot of time worrying about what kind of speech he will give when he is enshrined in the pro football Hall of Fame in Canton. Truth be told, there aren?t many teams ? if any ? who would trade their starting quarterback straight up for Orton.

So it?s no surprise that Denver fans were simultaneously slapping their foreheads and shaking their heads when the Broncos acquired Orton in that dump-off deal of Jay Cutler to the Bears on the day after April Fool?s Day. A few years work spent developing Cutler into the next John Elway went down the drain when the petulant Cutler forced the trade, and Bronco fans spent all summer contemplating life with a rookie head coach and a starting quarterback that was lucky to have a job.

Funny how things work out. Cutler and the Bears are a missed Pittsburgh field goal away from an 0-2 start, while the Broncos have defied doomsayers coast to coast by jumping out 2-0 and assuming the early high ground in the dysfunctional AFC West. Denver is also 2-0 ATS heading into Sunday?s game at Oakland (Raiders -1).

And Orton? Well, he just seems to take it day by day. After the Broncos got lucky with that tipped pass/TD on the final play of the Cincinnati game, Orton and the Broncos stumbled around Invesco Field for most of the first half against Cleveland before turning on the afterburners in the second half. Orton finished at 19 for 37 for 263 yards and a touchdown, but in a Brady-like effort completed passes to nine different receivers.

Even if the Broncos get by Oakland on Sunday, they will likely cede control of the West to much-more-talented Chargers over the next month and a half. Denver takes on, in order, Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks. There aren?t a lot of good teams that could survive that kind of stretch, and the Broncos are not yet a good team, despite better-than-expected results fueled by an improved defense.

For now, though, Orton ? who Denver fans will be stunned to know has a better career wining percentage (.648) than Elway (.643) ? will enjoy the good times. A guy who was expected to be a career backup in Chicago is getting a shot, and handling it pretty well.

Some heat in the Northeast

Granted, it?s in hushed tones and not widespread, but in New England there is criticism of Bill Belichick. A couple of bad drafts in the middle of the decade prevented the team from getting younger, and while the defensive numbers have been OK this season, the lack of playmakers is taking a toll and initial positive feedback from the Richard Seymour deal has quieted.

Belichick also is taking mild heat for some puzzling play-calling in the Jets loss (Fred Taylor had runs of 13 and 12 yards, then was relegated to the witness protection program).

The Pats give 4 to Atlanta in New England on Sunday.

Role reversals for Vikings and Niners?

What looked like a layup for the Vikings a few weeks ago has become anything but. San Francisco comes into Minnesota on Sunday in the only game on the docket matching 2-0 teams, and the 7-point line seems a bit heavy. The Niners can run the ball (Frank Gore averages 6.4 yards a carry) and are oozing confidence after beating the Cardinals in Arizona and the Seahawks at home.

SF has allowed only 53 yards a game on the ground and the Vikes have given up more than twice that. Toughest test yet for both teams.

Clock ticking on the Panthers

Does anyone have any idea what is going on in Carolina? The Panthers crawl into Dallas Monday night at 0-2 and in danger of becoming irrelevant in an NFC South that has been taken over by Atlanta and New Orleans. The defending division champs have basically the same team that went 12-4 last season but seem to have not yet recovered from that God-awful playoff loss at home to Arizona.

Oddsmakers are giving Carolina 9 and the number seems a bit high ? especially considering that this is where the Panthers have to make a last stand before the season starts circling the toilet.

AFC division champs off to slow starts

It takes a month to shake down, of course, but the early going has been tough sledding for last year?s AFC division champions:

Miami (11-5 last season) is already off the tracks at 0-2. The Dolphins showed success with the Wildcat against Indy Monday night, but the bottom line is telling ? two games, 30 points.

Tennessee (13-3) is also 0-2, and in the next month faces the Jets, division games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis, and New England.

Pittsburgh (12-4) was life and death on opening night against Tennessee, then with 10 days rest looked lifeless at times in a loss to the Bears.

San Diego (8-8) is 1-1 but should be 0-2. The Oakland win was a gift. The Chargers are in no danger in the talent-challenged AFC West, though.

Collectively, the four champs are 2-6. They are even worse against the spread at 1-7.

 

[Lumi]

Betting New Orleans totals is anything but a 'Big Easy'

Betting New Orleans totals is anything but a 'Big Easy'

Betting New Orleans totals is anything but a 'Big Easy'

I turned to my football-watching buddy Derek Sunday afternoon and asked a question I knew he wouldn?t have an answer to.

"Is there any reason we're not betting the Saints over every week?"

That same question was likely raised in sportsbooks and living rooms across North America last weekend as the New Orleans offense eclipsed the 40-point plateau for the second time in as many games.

Betting Saints games over the total seems so obvious.

Since Week 7 of last season, the New Orleans offense has averaged more than 33 points per game and the Saints defense is hardly known as a shutdown bunch. But don't rush to the window with your over ticket quite yet.

Oddsmakers have dealt with high-scoring offenses before and they've started making their adjustments.

"The value is already gone from Saints games,"

Lawrence points out the opening total for this weekend's Saints-Bills game (52) is five points higher than any other game in Bills ultra-conservative head coach Dick Jauron's NFL career. Buffalo hasn't played a game with a line that high since 2002.

"We'll go as high as we can and force the players to make a decision," says Pete Korner, owner of the Sports Club in Las Vegas. "I'd always rather be wrong too high than too low. When it comes to push and shove, we know the casual bettors will be betting the over."

History suggests oddsmakers will be successful in slowing down the regularity of Saints games going over the total.

Last year, New Orleans went over in four of its first five games, pushing the other. After that, over bettors cashed in only six of the Saints? next 11 contests.

The 2007 Patriots cashed over tickets in 10 of their first 12 games, then went over just once in their last seven matches (including playoffs). The average opening total in New England's final 16 games was 49.5, a full touchdown higher than the average posted total for the Pats' first three games.

And let's not forget the 2000 Rams, who averaged 33.8 points per game. The Greatest Show on Turf's first seven contests sailed over the total, but the under cashed in five of the Rams' final nine regular-season games as the books jacked up their totals as high as 61.5.

"Oddsmakers make adjustments and the betting public has a difficult time jumping off a totals train that has been cashing tickets,"

Offenses, particularly pass-heavy attacks like the Saints, tend to slow down later in the season when the weather gets cold and inclement. Weather won't be much of an issue for New Orleans this year, however.

Other than their visit to Buffalo this weekend and a trip to Washington in early December, the Saints will play in domes or the balmy climates of Florida and North Carolina for the rest of the year.

"As long as conditions are good, there's no reason they couldn't score 40 a game," admits Korner. "That's their M.O. It's not going to happen necessarily, but we have to assume that every week they'll put up a big number."

 

[Lumi]

Conflicting reports on Cowboys RB Barber's status

Conflicting reports on Cowboys RB Barber's status

Conflicting reports on Cowboys RB Barber's status


Dallas Cowboys running back Marion Barber will miss one to two weeks with a quadriceps strain, NBC5 TV in Dallas-Fort Worth reported Tuesday.

That somewhat contradicts a report from ESPN.com which said Barber received treatment for the injury and hopes to play against Carolina on Monday.

Barber pulled up during a long run at the end of Sunday's 33-31 home loss to the New York Giants. AN MRI on Monday confirmed the strain.

Barber is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Without him, the Cowboys likely would use a tandem of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice in their backfield. Jones is averaging 9.1 yards on 13 carries.

The Cowboys are 9-point favorites over the winless Panthers, who have surrendered 336 rushing yards in their first two games. The total is 46.

 

[Lumi]

NFL Top 5: Football's best defensive units

NFL Top 5: Football's best defensive units

NFL Top 5: Football's best defensive units


Two weeks into the NFL season and these are the five best defenses based on points-allowed per game. The under involving these teams is a combined 10-0.



Denver Broncos (6.5 PPG, 253.5 YPG)

While you may question the Broncos competition thus far (Cincinnati and Cleveland), all indications suggest this is a vastly improved defensive unit from a year ago.

Denver, which ranked 29th in total defense in 2008, has given up just 6.5 points a game to lead the league and 253.5 yards a game, which trails only the New York Jets.

Pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil and veteran linebacker Andra Davis are two major factors for the improved play. Dumervil, who struggled last year following a 12.5-sack 2007 season, appears comfortable now playing outside linebacker in the Broncos new 3-4 formation. Davis, a free agent pickup from the Browns in the offseason, has been a monster in the middle alongside D.J. Williams. Davis has registered 19 tackles to pace the Broncos.

The under is 2-0 for the Broncos. Next up is at the Oakland Raiders and the total opened at 36.

New York Jets (8.0 PPG, 241.0 YPG)

First-year head coach Rex Ryan?s ultra-aggressive defense has yet to yield an offensive touchdown this season, despite facing two potent offenses.

After stifling the Houston Texans to open the season, New York?s D returned last week to hold the New England Patriots without a touchdown for the first time since late in the 2006 season. The Jets were outgained 299 yards to 254 in the 16-9 win, but the Pats? three trips to the red zone failed to earn a single six-point play.

Both of those games easily came in under the posted totals of 44.5.

The Jets are giving up an average of 241 yards a game to lead the league and their eight points allowed trails only the Denver Broncos. This week the Jets get the Tennessee Titans at home with an over/under of 37.

Seattle Seahawks (11.5 PPG, 315.0 YPG)

The Seahawks, which were 30th in total defense and last against the pass in 2008, make this list based almost solely on their 28-0 shutout of the woeful Rams on opening weekend.

Last week, Seattle was ravaged on the ground by running back Frank Gore in their 23-10 loss to the 49ers. The ?Hawks have given up an average of 316 yards a game, which is good for only 12th in the league, but their 11.5 points-against average puts them squarely in the top five.

Things may get worse before they get better for this unit. Star linebacker Lofa Tatupu couldn?t finish against the 49ers because of a sprained hamstring suffered in the season opener and cornerback Josh Wilson also went down vs. the 49ers with a pair of sprained ankles.

The under has been perfect so far for the Seahawks. Next up is a home game versus the Bears with the total set at 37.

San Francisco 49ers (13 PPG, 291.0 YPG)

The 49ers, a middle-of-the-road defense in 2008, appear to be coming along nicely through the first two games of head coach Mike Singletary?s first full season.

San Francisco opened the season by putting a muzzle on Kurt Warner and the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals in their 20-16 win and returned to hold the Seahawks to just 66 rushing yards while securing a 23-10 victory last week.

Takeaways and sacks, a point of emphasis under Singletary in training camp, have been a catalyst for the 49ers improvement. The 49ers, which had just 12 INTs and were 16th in the league with 30 sacks in 2008, already have three picks and four sacks through two games.

The under is 2-0 for the 49ers and next up is a road trip to Minnesota with the total sitting at 40.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers (13.5 PPG, 297.5 YPG)

Last year?s top-ranked defensive unit has picked up right where it left off having given up just 13.5 points and 297.5 yards a game through the first two games to once again rank in the top five.

While those numbers are solid, there is some reason for concern in Pittsburgh. The Steelers, who led the AFC with 51 sacks last season, have just two after two games. Outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley combined for 27.5 sacks last season but have yet to drop a QB.

The team?s stop unit failed to shut the door late in the 17-14 loss to the Bears and All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu is expected to be out four-to-six weeks because of injury.

Pittsburgh has played under the total in both its games so far and next week?s over/under line against Cincinnati is set at 37.

 

[Lumi]

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

The G-Men move to the top of the standings after spoiling the Cowboys New Stadium Opener. The Saints Jump 12 spots behind their potent offence, biggest drop in the rankings goes to the Patriots after losing to the Jets on Sunday.

No. 1 New York Giants: Giants with a big road win vs. the Cowboys and start the season 2-0 for the second year in a row. They have 2 key divisional wins. Giants have some definite injury concerns, especially on the defensive line.

No. 2 New Orleans Saints: Saints jump over several teams and no question made the biggest jump in my rankings. No question, this is the best offensive team in the NFL. But defensively, they've given up an average of 24.5 points to a rookie QB Stafford of the Lions and back up QB Kevin Kolb of the Eagles. They gave up 463 total yards to the Eagles.

No. 3 Baltimore Ravens: Ravens were impressive in beating the Chargers in San Diego. They're defense gave up a lot of yards, but they kept the Chargers out of the end zone in 5 Red Zone attempts. That's impressive against a very potent Charger offense.

No. 4 Minnesota Vikings: Vikings are 2-0, both wins coming on the road. That means 8 of their last 14 games will be played at home. RB Adrian Peterson was held to only 92 rushing yards, but had a TD and 24 receiving yards. QB Brett Favre was very efficient completing 23 of 27 passes. Favre has 3 TDs and zero INT's. He's doing exactly what the Vikings brought him in for, managing the game and not making any mistakes.

No. 5 Indianapolis Colts: Is there any other team or QB that can win games when only having the ball for 14 minutes, 53 seconds? I doubt it. Peyton and the Colts do just enough to win another exciting MNF game.

No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers had many chances to close out the Bears on the road, but couldn?t get it done. Tough loss but the Steelers are still an elite team but they have plenty of room for improvement.

No. 7 Atlanta Falcons: Going back to last year, the Falcons have won 6 of their last 7 regular season games. The only problem for the Falcons, they play in the same division as the Saints which and will be in a fight all year to win that division. But there's no question this team will compete, and compete all year with the weapons they have on offense.

No. 8 Philadelphia Eagles: I didn't drop the Eagles that much in my rankings off their loss to the Saints. Obviously this team misses QB Donovan McNabb. The Eagles take on the Chiefs next week, a very winnable game no matter who starts at QB (Kevin Kolb has been named the starter for that game). The Eagles have a bye week following their game vs. the Chiefs and hope to have McNabb back for their October 11th game vs. the Bucs.

No. 9 New England Patriots: Patriots have taken a big fall from #1 as problems are mounting in New England. Their offense looks rough and they were held out of the end zone and committed 11 penalties for 89 yards. Not exactly Patriot football. We will learn a lot about this team next week when they take on a good Falcon team. You have to go back to their week 1 loss to the Bills in 2003 for the last time the Patriots had a losing record.

No. 10 New York Jets: Jets defense looks to be the real deal. They haven't given up an offensive touchdown in 2 games and have only given up 9 points to offensive elite teams the Texans and Patriots. It will be interesting to see how this team rebounds off such a momentous win. They play against the Titans who are in a must win game.

No. 11 San Francisco 49ers: 49ers are winning games exactly like head coach Mike Singletary likes to win games, with a solid running game and great defense. But this team will be severely tested on the road in hostile environment against the Vikings.

No. 12 Arizona Cardinals: Looks like the Cardinals got their MoJo back in Jacksonville. QB Kurt Warner was almost perfect, completing 24 of 26 passes and had a QB rating of 131.2. The game wasn't as close at the final score indicated. The Cardinals got up 24-3 in the first half and coasted to victory.

No. 13 San Diego Chargers: Chargers are off to another slow start. They're 1-1 this season, their one win over the brutally bad Raiders in a game they needed a late TD to rally for the win. This team is now 4-6 in the month of September in the last 3 seasons.

No. 14 Green Bay Packers: Packers have some serious issues with their offensive line. They've given up 10 sacks in just 2 games and QB Aaron Rodgers has taken some serious shots already. And it looks like their LT Chad Clifton will miss significant time with a sprained ankle.

No. 15 Chicago Bears: Bears got a win they desperately needed at home vs. the Steelers. They also catch a break taking on the Seahawks who'll be without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck. Bears QB Jay Cutler was much, much better than his 4 INT debut game in Green Bay. But the Bears need to get their running game going; they've only rushed the ball for an average of 64.5 yards a game.

No. 16 Dallas Cowboys: QB Tony Romo has shown time and time again he can't win the big game. In the biggest home opening game in the history of the Cowboys organization, Romo threw 4 INT?s, one that went for a TD and another 2 that led to Giant TDs. This Cowboys team can go only as far as Romo can take them, and from what we've seen he won't take them to victory in a big, pressure packed game.

No. 17 Tennessee Titans: Titans losing outright to the Texans was the biggest surprise to me this week. Actually, it was their defense giving up 34 points that was the biggest surprise. Titans have put themselves in a deep hole by starting 0-2 and now face a very good Jets team. It's early in the season, but this is a must win game for the Titans.

No. 18 Houston Texans: Texans beat the Titans on the road, so how can I have them ranked below them? Because we're talking just one game and there is no doubt that if they played again next week on a neutral field, the Titans would be favored. That is how I justify the positioning. As for the Texans, it was a monster win for them and now they face a couple of bad teams at home. They take on a Jags team that gave up 24 first half points last week at home and then they play the offensively challenged Raider team at home.

No. 19 Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks suffered a brutal blow with the injury to their QB Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks were ruined last year with injuries; let?s hope this injury isn't the start of another injury plagued season for the Seahawks. Hasselbeck has fractured ribs and I suspect he'll be out for at least 2 weeks. Even when he comes back, how badly will the fractured rib affect his game?

No. 20 Denver Broncos: The Broncos are by far the worst 2-0 team in the league. Their 2 wins are over the Bengals and Browns. They have a great opportunity to go 3-0 because they take on the Raiders this week. Amazing how much maligned this organization was before the start of the season, to think they could be 3-0 to start the year is rather surprising.

No. 21 Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals win over the Packers showed a lot about their character. They suffered a brutal loss the week before and got down early in this game, only to rally and really dominate what is perceived to be a solid Packers team. The Bengals have a vastly underrated defense. QB Carson Palmer still doesn't look like his old self, but he's getting better and if he can regain his former Pro Bowl level, this team might compete in the AFC North.

No. 22 Washington Redskins: The Redskins sure know how to win ugly. That's all I can say about what I saw on Sunday vs. the Rams. The 'skins could only produce 3 FG's against a pretty soft Rams defense. The 'skins have only produced 1 offensive TD in 2 games this season, and that was a meaningless TD in the final minute of the game vs. the Giants in week 1.

No. 23 Buffalo Bills: Bills finally got something out of TO (Terrell Owens) other than words and talk. QB Trent Edwards hit TO early in the 4th quarter for a 43 yard TD pass. That one pass makes life in Buffalo manageable, but eventually TO will get frustrated with this offense and with his QB, and that is when the sh*t will hit the fan. It's only a matter of time before TO goes off.

No. 24 Miami Dolphins: Dolphins executed their game plan to perfection, yet still loss on Monday night. This team has zero big play capability and QB Chad Pennington cannot throw the ball downfield. As good as it was in Miami last year; things are regressing and regressing in a hurry. After a brutal loss on Monday night, this team now has a short week to work and have to travel all the way to San Diego and play a Charger team that is coming off a frustrating loss of their own.

No. 25 Jacksonville Jaguars: This team and organization is going in the wrong direction. They most likely won't sell out a game this season, which means all their home games will be blacked out in Jacksonville. For an organization that was struggling to create much of a buzz in Jacksonville, rumors are abound that they're on their way out of town and on their way to Los Angeles.

No. 26 Carolina Panthers: Panthers have all kinds of issues on the defensive line. They were lacking depth on the defensive front going into the season and now have seen 2 key guys go down with injuries. They gave up 151 rushing yards to the Falcons last week, now they take on an angry Cowboys team with their 2 headed monster Barber and Jones.

No. 27 Oakland Raiders: Raiders are by far the worst 1-1 team in the league. They were completely outplayed last week, and even though they won the game they have major issues especially at QB. JaMarcus Russell is the worst starting QB in the league and he looks lost out there. He consistently misses wide open receivers and looks very confused at times.

No. 28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs are giving up way too many big plays on defense and have no such ability to do the same on offense. The Bucs have surrendered passing TDs of 32, 43, 42, 66 and 80 yards in just two games. YIKES. The Bucs have only 1 TD of 30 yards or more.

No. 29 Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs completely outplayed the Raiders, gaining more than 243 yards than the Raiders did on offense, and producing 14 more first downs than the Raiders did. But the Chiefs constantly shot themselves in the foot and couldn't get the ball in the end zone when they had their opportunities.

No. 30 Cleveland Browns: The Browns and QB Brady Quinn continue to struggle on offense. They've only been able to produce one offensive TD in 2 games. Conversely, on defense they've given up an average of 30.5 points a game.

No. 31 Detroit Lions: The Lions jumped one spot after their 19th consecutive loss, but this team has shown more life this season and I believe they are very close to getting that much needed win.

No. 32 St. Louis Rams: Rams have only scored 6 points in 2 games. UGLY. They by far look like the worst team in the NFL.

 

[Lumi]

Matter of life or death: NFL Survivor Pool pick Week 3

Matter of life or death: NFL Survivor Pool pick Week 3

Matter of life or death: NFL Survivor Pool pick Week 3

Week 2 turned out to be much better than we had anticipated. Those of you that have followed along have managed to go 2-0 with teams that will likely not be heading for the playoffs, which is good for long-term positioning. Having Green Bay and Tennessee lose did a fair amount of damage in many pools.

This week, we will finally burn up one of the elite teams, with the Baltimore Ravens as the choice.

Although San Diego was able to attack down the field against the Ravens defense last week, the Browns do not have the tools to even attempt anything similar. And in winning last year's two head-to-head meetings by a combined 28 points, there is a clear Baltimore dominance at the line of scrimmage.

There would be a late-season opening to use the Ravens in a home game vs. Detroit, but the other options near the top of our list, Philadelphia and Dallas, not only lack the percentages for this particular week but also have favorable future options (the Eagles will have a home game vs. Tampa Bay following their bye week, which should mean Donovan McNabb fully back in the fold, while the Cowboys have a home game vs. Oakland later).

Season recap:
Week 1 ? SEATTLE
Week 2 ? WASHINGTON
Week 3 - BALTIMORE

 

[Lumi]

NFL Team Bye Week Trends - Part 1

NFL Team Bye Week Trends - Part 1

NFL Team Bye Week Trends - Part 1

If you haven?t ever studied teams? performances in and out of the bye week, what you?ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these 68 different powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 70% or at most 30%.

I?ve decided to break this piece into two simply because of the volume of information and because it has such shelf life. This first part will cover games from Week 3 through Week 7. Be sure to save or bookmark this page to refer back to for future reference, then make sure to check back for the second half of the piece the week of October 26th, covering games in Weeks 8-11.

Enjoy the information, and good luck.

Week 3
9/27/09 - (405) KANSAS CITY at (406) PHILADELPHIA


PHILADELPHIA has not done well in the game before the bye week, 3-7 SU & 2-7-1 ATS since '00.

UNDERDOGS are 12-2-1 ATS in PHILADELPHIA's L15 pre-bye week games.
Play on: KANSAS CITY ATS

9/27/09 - (417) ATLANTA at (418) NEW ENGLAND


ATLANTA is 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since '01.
Play on: ATLANTA SU & ATS

9/27/09 - (429) INDIANAPOLIS at (430) ARIZONA


ARIZONA is 5-0-1 OVER the total in its L6 pre-bye week games
Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

9/28/09 - (431) CAROLINA at (432) DALLAS


UNDERDOGS have covered 12 straight CAROLINA pre-bye week games.

CAROLINA is 6-1 ATS in its L7 pre-bye week games on the road.
Play on: CAROLINA ATS

Week 4
10/4/09 - (211) DETROIT at (212) CHICAGO


Prior to its '08 win, CHICAGO has lost seven straight pre-bye week games ATS.
Play on: DETROIT ATS

10/4/09 - (217) NY JETS at (218) NEW ORLEANS


UNDERDOGS are on a 9-1-1 ATS run in NEW ORLEANS pre-bye week games.
Play on: UNDERDOG ATS

10/4/09 - (225) SAN DIEGO at (226) PITTSBURGH


HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the L6 SAN DIEGO pre-bye week contests.

OVER has been the total result in 11 of the L14 SAN DIEGO pre-bye week games.
Play on: PITTSBURGH SU & ATS and OVER THE TOTAL

10/5/09 - (227) GREEN BAY at (228) MINNESOTA


FAVORITES are 5-1-1 ATS in the GREEN BAY's L7 pre-bye week games.
Play on: FAVORITE ATS

Week 5
10/11/09 - (403) DALLAS at (404) KANSAS CITY


DALLAS is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games.
Play on: DALLAS ATS

10/11/09 - (405) WASHINGTON at (406) CAROLINA


FAVORITES are 6-1 SU & ATS in CAROLINA's L7 post-bye week games.

UNDER the total is 5-1 in CAROLINA's L6 post-bye week games.
Play on: FAVORITE ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (407) TAMPA BAY at (408) PHILADELPHIA


PHILADELPHIA has gone UNDER the total in 10 straight post-bye week games.

PHILADELPHIA has won 11 straight post-bye week games and is 9-2 ATS in the process.
Play on: PHILADELPHIA SU & ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (417) ATLANTA at (418) SAN FRANCISCO


Favorites are 8-3 ATS in ATLANTA's L11 post-bye week games.

ATLANTA is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '99.
Play on: FAVORITE ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (421) HOUSTON at (422) ARIZONA


ARIZONA is 11-3 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '94
Play on: UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (425) INDIANAPOLIS at (426) TENNESSEE


INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS in its L10 pre-bye week road games.
Play on: INDIANAPOLIS ATS

10/12/09 - (427) NY JETS at (428) MIAMI


UNDERDOGS are 8-1 ATS in MIAMI's L9 pre-bye week games.
Play on: UNDERDOG ATS

Week 6
10/18/09 - (215) BALTIMORE at (216) MINNESOTA


UNDERDOGS have gone 4-0 ATS in BALTIMORE's L4 pre-bye week games.

BALTIMORE is 6-1 UNDER the total in pre-bye week games since '02.
Play on: UNDER DOG ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/18/09 - (217) ST LOUIS at (218) JACKSONVILLE


JACKSONVILLE has been a strong pre-bye week team of late, going 4-0 SU & ATS in L4, outscoring opponents by 15.8 PPG.
Play on: JACKSONVILLE SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (219) NY GIANTS at (220) NEW ORLEANS


NEW ORLEANS is on a 1-5 ATS slide in post-bye week games, including 0-3 SU & ATS under Sean Payton.
Play on: NY GIANTS SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (223) DETROIT at (224) GREEN BAY


DETROIT has lost five straight pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, average score 33-11.

HOME TEAMS are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in DETROIT's L14 pre-bye week games.
Play on: GREEN BAY SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (227) ARIZONA at (228) SEATTLE


HOME TEAMS have won eight straight SEATTLE pre-bye week games and are 6-2 ATS in that span.
Play on: SEATTLE SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (231) TENNESSEE at (232) NEW ENGLAND


TENNESSEE has won six of its L7 pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS.
Play on: TENNESSEE SU & ATS

10/19/09 - (235) DENVER at (236) SAN DIEGO


DENVER is just 2-7 ATS in its L9 pre-bye week games on the road AND vs division opponents.

DENVER is 8-2-1 OVER the total in its L11 pre-bye week games.
Play on: SAN DIEGO ATS and OVER THE TOTAL

Week 7
10/25/09 - (413) SAN DIEGO at (414) KANSAS CITY


KANSAS CITY is 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its L8 pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes.
Play on: KANSAS CITY SU & ATS

10/25/09 - (415) INDIANAPOLIS at (416) ST LOUIS


INDIANAPOLIS has scored 33.4 PPG in its L10 post-bye week games, going 9-1 OVER.
Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

10/25/09 - (417) CHICAGO at (418) CINCINNATI


ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in CINCINNATI pre-bye week games since '01.
Play on: CHICAGO ATS

10/25/09 - (421) MINNESOTA at (422) PITTSBURGH


UNDERDOGS & ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 ATS in the L7 PITTSBURGH pre-bye week games.
Play on: MINNESOTA ATS

10/25/09 - (423) NEW ENGLAND at (424) TAMPA BAY


TAMPA BAY is on a 6-1 SU & ATS roll in pre-bye week games.
Play on: TAMPA BAY SU & ATS

10/25/09 - (425) SAN FRANCISCO at (426) HOUSTON


HOME TEAMS are 8-1 SU & ATS in SAN FRANCISCO post-bye week games since '01.

SAN FRANCISCO has lost five straight post-bye week games and is 1-4 ATS.

The OVER has converted on 10 straight SAN FRANCISCO post-bye week totals.
Play on: HOUSTON SU & ATS and OVER THE TOTAL

10/25/09 - (433) ATLANTA at (434) DALLAS


ROAD TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in DALLAS' L6 post-bye week games.

DALLAS has won & covered four straight post-bye week games, all on the road though.
Play on: ATLANTA SU & ATS

10/26/09 - (437) PHILADELPHIA at (438) WASHINGTON


WASHINGTON has struggled offensively going into the bye week, scoring 13.4 PPG in its L10, resulting in eight UNDER's.
Play on: UNDER THE TOTAL

 

[Lumi]

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 3

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 3

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 3


Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)

Why Browns cover: They?re 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Ravens. Joe Flacco has trouble with Cleveland. He averages only 188.5 yards passing with two TDs and two interceptions in two games.

Why Ravens cover: They?ve won four of the last six meetings. Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups. Brady Quinn (66.9 passer rating) is struggling as the Browns' starting QB. Cleveland has collapsed in the second half of both games this season. Starting running back Jamal Lewis is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Total (38.5): Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings at Baltimore.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (+6.5)

Why Giants cover: Have won six of last nine meetings. Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Bucs will be without starting safety Jermaine Phillips who has a broken thumb.

Why Buccaneers cover: New York could be without both defensive linemen Chris Canty and Justing Tuck. With 574 yards passing and four touchdowns, Byron Leftwich has been surprisingly effective for Tampa Bay.

Total (44): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four dates in Tampa Bay.

Green Bay at St. Louis (+6.5)

Why Packers cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories and has only scored seven points in two games this season.

Why Rams cover: Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Green Bay's already shaky offensive line will be without Chad Clifton who has an ankle injury. Steven Jackson has rushed for 281 yards in three games versus the Packers.

Total (41): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Kansas City at Philadelphia (-9.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Philly is banged up at all three skill positions with QB Donovan McNabb, WR DeSean Jackson and RB Brian Westbrook all battling injuries. Kevin Kolb threw three picks last week and will get the nod again with McNabb still on the shelf.

Why Eagles cover: They?re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and have won last two meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Matt Cassel will start at QB for K.C. even though Brodie Croyle was more effective in his Week 1 start.

Total (42): Over is 4-0-1 in Eagles' last five home games.

Atlanta at New England (-4)

Why Falcons cover: Patriots are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games. Tony Gonzalez has been close to unstoppable this season for a highly effective Atlanta offense.

Why Patriots cover: They?ve won last two meetings. Could establish a good running game now that Atlanta will be without DT Peria Jerry who is out for the season. Tom Brady has thrown for 600 yards and six scores in two games against the Falcons.

Total (45): Over is 4-0 in Patriots' last four home games.

San Francisco at Minnesota (-7)

Why 49ers cover: Are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. They held Adrian Peterson to only three rushing yards in their last meeting. Peterson is also dealing with a back in jury.

Why Vikings cover: Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Minny has the defense to shut down SF tailback Frank Gore. Brett Favre has become more of a game manager, exactly what the Vikings need.

Total (40): Under is 6-1 in 49ers' last seven games and 4-1 in their last five games.

Jacksonville at Houston (-3.5)

Why Jaguars cover: RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been solid against Houston with four touchdowns and a 5.4 yards per carry average in their last five meetings. Houston RB Steve Slaton has been unable to live up to last year's performance and has only 51 yards rushing and no scores.

Why Texans cover: Have won four of last six meetings. Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Houston. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson could destroy a terrible Jags' pass defense.

Total (46.5): Under is 4-0 in Jaguars' last four road games.

Washington at Detroit (+6.5)

Why Redskins cover: They?re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and have won the last three meetings. Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Matthew Stafford has been picked off five times in two games and is the league's lowest-rated passer.

Why Lions cover: Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Redskins have only managed 13 points so far this season and now will be without former Pro Bowl guard Randy Thomas for the season.

Total (38.5): Under is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.

Tennessee at N.Y. Jets (-1)

Why Titans cover: They have an explosive running offense that can dictate the pace of the game. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Jets cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Mark Sanchez has looked great in his first two games and gets to face a suspect Tennessee pass defense. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (37): Under is 5-1 in Titans' last six road games.

New Orleans at Buffalo (+6)

Why Saints cover: Are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. New Orleans has won three of last five meetings. Drew Brees has been incredible with nine touchdowns in two games and the Bills have one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.

Why Bills cover: They?re 4-1 ATS in their last five games. With both Pierre Thomas and leading rusher Mike Bell hurt, unproven Lynell Hamilton (no career carries) could get the bulk of the work in the backfield. Fred Jackson has played very well in place of the suspended Marshawn Lynch and is both the Bills' leading rusher and receiver.

Total (52): Over is 20-7-1 in Saints' last 28 games and 4-1 in Bills' last five games.

Chicago at Seattle (+1)

Why Bears cover: Seattle could be without QB Matt Hasselbeck who has a rib injury. Matt Forte could have a big day against a defense that allowed Frank Gore to run for 207 yards last week.

Why Seahawks cover: They?re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Running game has been very effective with Julius Jones (4.7 yards per carry) leading the way. Seattle has won three of the last five meetings. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Total (37): Under is 8-2 in Bears' last 10 road games and 5-1 in Seahawks' last six home games.

Denver at Oakland (+1)

Why Broncos cover: Have won six of last eight meetings. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. JaMarcus Russell has completed on 35 percent of his passes and sports a paltry 46.6 passer rating. Raiders will be without starting guard Robert Gallery.

Why Raiders cover: Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Total (36): Under is 5-2 in Raiders' last seven home games.

Miami at San Diego (-6)

Why Dolphins cover: The Fish are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in San Diego. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Miami has won last seven meetings. Wildcat offense continues to baffle opposing defenses.

Why Chargers cover: SD is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games. Have dynamic passing offense with downfield threat Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles as the check down option.

Total (44): Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Diego.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+4)

Why Steelers cover: They?re 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Cincinnati. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Ben Roethlisberger has totaled 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Cincy.

Why Bengals cover: Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. DE Antwan Odom leads the league in sacks and could be trouble for Roethlisberger, who often holds onto the ball too long. With only 66 yards so far, Pitt tailback Willie Parker has been almost non-existent.

Total (37): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.

Indianapolis at Arizona (-1)

Why Colts cover: They?re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and have won last three meetings. NFL leading pass defense could limit Cards' aerial attack and force them to rely on their mediocre ground game.

Why Cardinals cover: They?re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Colts could be without defensive captain Gary Brackett who injured his leg Monday night. Indy has struggled to run the ball, averaging on 66 yards per game so far.

Total (47.5): Over is 36-15 in Cardinals' last 51 games.

Carolina at Dallas (-9)

Why Panthers cover: Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Jake Delhomme bounced back after a disastrous opening game and will face a Dallas defense allowing over 300 yards passing per game. Dallas RB Marion Barber is dealing with a quad injury. Delhomme is 3-1 in Monday night starts.

Why Cowboys cover: They?ve won the last seven meetings and are averaging 32 points per game. They?re going against a Carolina team that has given up 66 points in two games. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Total (46.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

 

[Lumi]

NFL prop shop Week 3: Betting youth over experience

NFL prop shop Week 3: Betting youth over experience

NFL prop shop Week 3: Betting youth over experience

It?s back to the drawing board after coming up empty with last week?s props.

To be honest, I wasn?t even close.

The good news is things can?t go any worse.

Here are four picks to click this week.

Most rushing yards

Willie Parker (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Cedric Benson (Cincinnati Bengals)

It?s looking more and more like Cedric Benson?s strong finish a year ago was no fluke.

He ripped a hole through the Green Bay defense a week ago, running for 141 yards on 29 carries. Although he has yet to reach the endzone this season, he has already racked up 217 yards on the ground - good for 4.3 yards per carry.

The Steelers obviously pose a stiff challenge, but Benson should be highly motivated after being held to 35 yards on 16 carries against them last season.

Maybe it?s time that ?Fast? Willie Parker drops the nickname.

He certainly isn?t earning it this season, rushing for only 66 yards through two games. His longest rush of the season has been 13 yards.

Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore will continue to eat away at his carries this week. Benson wins this matchup.

Take: Benson

Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) vs. Darren McFadden (Oakland Raiders)

The Raiders didn?t give their second-year back much of a workload last week, only 12 carries to be exact. I expect the Broncos will get a heavier dose of McFadden this Sunday.

JaMarcus Russell continues to struggle mightily, so Oakland has little choice but to rely heavily on its ground attack.

Note that McFadden ran for over 4.4 yards per carry in two games against Denver last season.

Knowshon Moreno showed a marked improvement last week, running for 75 yards on 17 carries against the Browns. But he continues to split carries with Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan.

The Broncos? gameplan isn?t likely to change this week and I highly doubt that they?ll give Moreno a lot of touches on the road. Remember, he carried the ball only eight times in their opener in Cincinnati.

Take: McFadden

Most passing yards

Kerry Collins (Tennessee Titans) vs. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

Give me the rookie over the 36-year old veteran Sunday.

Kerry Collins has thrown for 460 yards, but he hasn?t looked nearly as sharp as he did a year ago.

He turned the ball over twice in last week?s narrow loss to the Texans and that leads me to believe we?ll see a lot less of him and a lot more of Chris Johnson and LenDale White.

Rex Ryan was cautious with Mark Sanchez in the first half of last week?s win over the Patriots, but took the training wheels off in the game?s final 30 minutes.

That was a huge game against the rival Patriots, so Ryan?s mindset was understandable.

Keep in mind, Sanchez threw for 272 yards in the Jets opening week win in Houston. I think we?ll see more of that Mark Sanchez against the Titans Sunday.

The Titans have been awful against the pass in the early going, allowing a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

Take: Sanchez

Most pass receptions

Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)

Reggie Wayne was virtually invisible in last Monday?s 27-23 win over the Dolphins.

That shouldn?t come as a surprise, as he?s going to receive a lot more attention from opposing defenses in the absence of Anthony Gonzalez.

Even though Larry Fitzgerald has gotten off to a bit of a slow start (by his standards), I?m not about to discount the best receiver in the game.

Teams can?t afford to put too much of their focus on Fitzgerald due to the Cardinals wealth of talent at wide receiver. Double cover him and you?re likely going to get beat by Anquan Boldin or Steve Breaston.

The phrase ?pick your poison? comes to mind.

The Colts defense has to be worn down, not only because they?re playing on a short week but due to the Dolphins controlling the football for an incredible 45 minutes Monday.

The Colts secondary didn?t have to work all that hard against Chad Pennington, but it will against Kurt Warner, who found his rhythm completing 24-of-26 passes last week in Jacksonville.

Take: Fitzgerald

 

[Lumi]

NFL Betting: NFL Rookie of the Year Betting

NFL Betting: NFL Rookie of the Year Betting

NFL Betting: NFL Rookie of the Year Betting


Two games into the NFL season and the Rookie of the Year NFL future odds have been shaken up a little as the sports betting community re-evaluates based on a couple of early performances.

One rookie has really stood out in Week 1 and 2 and his stock has risen with sports bettors. Jets? quarterback Mark Sanchez is that guy. While many rookies are still just trying to get on the field or are the second and third options in an offensive scheme, the Jets top pick has led his team to two upset victories.

Sanchez began the season with NFL odds of 8-1 to win Rookie of the Year, but is now the front-runner. Sanchez served notice in his league debut when he threw for 272 yards and a touchdown in Houston against the Texans, who many felt are set to become a top team in the AFC. He followed up that performance in Week 2 with a strong second half showing; outperforming Patriots QB Tom Brady in leading the Jets to their first win in nine tries at home against New England.

Sanchez has settled right in and performed well beyond his years. He is the talk of the town and after two games looks like he has the tools to be an impact player ? but yes, it is still early.

Online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com reported solid action coming in on Sanchez after his pre-season performances, but the betting really heated up the last two weeks.

The Lions QB Mark Stafford was also listed at 8-1 NFL odds and has shown flashes of his gifted ability, but he unfortunately plays for the Lions. Stafford and the Lions have lost their first two games, making it 19 straight for this sad-sack franchise dating back to last year. Stafford has the luxury of throwing to Calvin Johnson who is one of the top five receivers in the game. They hooked up in Week 2 for Stafford?s first career touchdown pass and they will become a dynamic duo over the next few seasons. Stafford has his work cut out for him with the Lions, and in the rookie contest against Sanchez.

Going into the season, the odds on favorite at 3-1 to win the award was Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno. Running backs have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award 10 out of the last 16 years and Moreno was the top back drafted out of Georgia.

In his first game against the Bengals on the road he found the going rough, gaining only 19 yards on carries. In Week 2 against the porous Browns defense he rushed for 75 yards on 17 carries. He is splitting time with former Eagle Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hills and former Jet Lamont Jordon. He will get his touches as he is also an above average receiver out of the backfield but there are a lot of Broncos clamoring for the ball so his numbers might not be as gaudy as others.

The Cardinals drafted Chris Beanie Wells with their first round pick looking to bulk up their running game. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is a fan of the smash mouth running game and Wells is a perfect addition to slasher Tim Hightower. Wells unfortunately had two fumbles in Week 2 against the Jaguars. He had fumbling issues in college so he will need to sort that issue out if he has any chance of hanging with the top rookies.

The Colts? Donald Brown is thought to be a perfect compliment to Joseph Addai, giving the Colts a dynamic one-two punch out of the backfield. He was listed at 7-2 but the Colts are going to be a pass first team again this year as their offensive line is a work-in-progress and isn?t opening any holes for the rushing game.

The Vikings look to have struck gold with Florida Gators rookie Percy Harvin who is listed at 12-1. He had a nice game against the Lions catching five balls for 41 yards and his second touchdown of the young season. He could have the best chance of beating Sanchez because he has Brett Favre throwing him the ball and Adrian Peterson running the ball, which requires defenses to play tighter at the line of scrimmage. Harvin also has the speedster Bernard Berrian on the outside, which will free up Harvin for more opportunities. Favre already seems to like getting him the ball.

After Week 2 Sanchez is the clear-cut favorite but Percy Harvin will keep this contest honest. Harvin is an explosive part of an explosive offense that will give him chances to make some highlight reel plays this year.

Check out all this week?s NFL Lines.

Win $100 - Play the free ?Pick The Winners? NFL contest at SPORTSBETTING.com and you could win $100 just for picking a handful of NFL winners.

 

[Lumi]

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Start planning now, take chance on backups

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Start planning now, take chance on backups

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Start planning now, take chance on backups

It seems too early for a break in the NFL schedule, but bye weeks begin next week and run all the way through Week 10. It might be a good idea to get an early run on the top players available before the pickings get slim due to the frenzy of transactions that will occur.

If you're looking for a running back, it's likely most of the good ones are gone. So you might have to take a chance -- a gamble in hopes the upside materializes. Here are some potential options:

? Justin Forsett, Seahawks: He was featured quite often in third-down situations and ran the ball well when given the chance last week at San Francisco. Julius Jones, the starter, carried only eight times for 11 yards. Forsett made the most of his opportunity with five carries for 35 yards along with six catches for 57 yards. He is a good investment for down the road.

? Correll Buckhalter, Broncos: Rookie Knowshon Moreno will be getting most of the carries, but the Broncos still will be getting Buckhalter involved. In two games, he has had 17 rushes for 122 yards and a touchdown, with a nice average of 8 yards per touch when including his receptions. He can be expected to continue getting 10 to 12 touches per game.

? Heath Evans, Saints: It may seem like a stretch, but in desperate times and with a shortage of backs, he could score some points for your team. Don't expect any yardage points from him, but he will score. The Saints like to throw near the goal line, and on two occasions in the first two games, Evans scored in the red zone.

? Chris Brown, Texans: It's hard to believe Steve Slayton could be given up on after having such a great 2008 season, but after his three fumbles and no production in two games, Brown is getting noticed more by the coaching staff.

The most plentiful position of available quality players is wide receiver. This week there was a massive run on free agent Mario Manningham after his big game Sunday at Dallas. If he isn't available, there still are some other opportunities:

? Johnny Knox, Bears: Jay Cutler has turned the Bears into a pass-first, run-never offense and is still searching for that go-to receiver. He may have found him in Knox, who had six catches for 70 yards with a touchdown last week against Pittsburgh. The Chicago Sun-Times reported that Knox could replace Earl Bennett as the starter soon. He certainly has the confidence of Cutler and has made the most of his chances, leading the team in yardage.

? Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars: With Troy Williamson out for the season, Sims-Walker becomes the starter. In his first chance to step in last week, he came through with six catches for 106 yards and a touchdown against Arizona.

? Laurent Robinson, Rams: Featured wideout Donnie Avery has fallen out of favor because of losing fumbles in the first two games, and Robinson has been the beneficiary by leading the team with 11 receptions and catching Marc Bulger's only touchdown pass.

? Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, Colts: Anthony Gonzalez is expected to miss up to eight weeks, and it will be up to these two to be Reggie Wayne's wing man and get some of Peyton Manning's 300 yards each week. Of the two, Garcon looks to be the better choice.

? Bobby Wade, Chiefs: If in a league where receptions get points, he's a good fit. He led the Vikings in catches the past two years, and last week he caught six passes for 72 yards.

Most fantasy teams have two quarterbacks on the squad, but there are a few possible free-agent upgrades that are performing well:

? Trent Edwards, Bills: With big-play receivers such as Lee Evans and Terrell Owens, it's surprising Edwards is still available. Only three QBs have more touchdown passes than his four, and only five have more fantasy points.

? Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers: He's on a team that has been behind and forced to throw, and he's putting fantasy points on the board. Only six QBs have more yards than him, and only three have more touchdowns. Chances are, Tampa Bay will be in similar positions each week, forcing Leftwich to pass often.

? Kyle Orton, Broncos: He has only two touchdown passes, but doesn't have any negative points with no interceptions. Despite piloting an offense that has looked sluggish in two games, there have been glimpses that show Orton could post some solid numbers in coach Josh McDaniels' system.

 

[Lumi]

When the game is on the line

When the game is on the line

When the game is on the line

Sports handicapper puts his faith in three of the NFL?s top power backs

The three NFL running backs who provide the most value to their team, according to Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D?Amico, are Brandon Jacobs of the Giants, Michael Turner of the Falcons and Adrian Peterson of the Vikings.

D?Amico will be backing two of those teams at the betting windows this weekend among his four top plays in the NFL.

D?Amico recommends laying 6 1/2 points with the Giants at Tampa Bay thanks in part to the talent of Jacobs and his supporting cast.

?Jacobs is a horse,? D?Amico said. ?He can run it up the gut and he can turn the corner and go up the sides on you. As long as he is on the field this team can regulate the clock and (quarterback) Eli Manning can work his magic.?

Although the line on the game has been bouncing from 6 1/2 to 7 depending on where you?re shopping in Nevada, 6 1/2 remains easy to obtain in Las Vegas.

Buccaneers supporters, of course, should hold out for a 7. If the Giants end up winning by exactly 7 points, this will be a situation in which bettors on both sides of the game should either win or push, but not lose.

In another featured selection, D?Amico likes Atlanta as a 4 1/2-point underdog against New England with the Falcons heading into a bye week after they face the Patriots.

?The Patriots are still a very good team, but they have a lot of rust on them,? D?Amico (online at allamericansports.info) said. ?Having (quarterback) Tom Brady back will be good for them in the long run, but right now they?re just not in sync. I think Atlanta will be well-prepared and in a position to surprise them.?

Before the season, D?Amico said he was bullish on two teams from the NFC South: the Falcons and the Saints. So far they are a combined 4-for-4 straight up and against the point spread.

?They?ll continue to get the money during the regular season,? D?Amico said.

The largest point spread on this week?s NFL schedule doesn?t scare D?Amico, who will give 13 1/2 points with the Ravens against the visiting Browns.

Among the mismatches in the game is the one at quarterback between Baltimore?s Joe Flacco and Cleveland?s Brady Quinn.

?My personal power ratings say the Ravens will crush Cleveland,? D?Amico said. ?I?m not a big believer in Quinn. I know he?s cute and the girls like him, but I don?t think there?s enough talent around him on this Cleveland team.?

In a final NFL play, D?Amico likes the Texans as a 3 1/2-point favorite against the Jaguars, still smarting after placing wide receiver Troy Williamson on injured reserve Wednesday after he sustained a shoulder injury Sunday in Jacksonville?s loss to Arizona.

Although he does not care for it from a betting perspective, D?Amico will be watching Sunday?s Jets-Titans game closely. The Jets are favored by 2 1/2 points at home. D?Amico predicts Tennessee will rebound from its 0-2 start to make the playoffs, and he?s not entirely sold on Mark Sanchez, the Jets? heralded rookie quarterback.

?He?s playing well but he?s still a rookie,? D?Amico said. ?Teams are going to start blitzing him more than they have been. He could start making some freshman mistakes and if he does, the Jets are going to have some tough times ahead.?

 

[Lumi]

NFL FORECAST: Cards good bet despite Manning's sleight of hand

NFL FORECAST: Cards good bet despite Manning's sleight of hand

NFL FORECAST: Cards good bet despite Manning's sleight of hand


Picking apart the Indianapolis Colts and pointing out their flaws is getting a little easier. The bottom line, though, is they still have Peyton Manning running the show, and he's always tough to beat.

Manning has produced more than a few miracles over the years. He directed another one Monday night in Miami, a reminder that betting on the best player on the field often has its rewards.

The Colts are in the NFL's prime-time spotlight again this week, playing at Arizona on Sunday night, and Manning tends to shine in these settings. But there is more to like about the Cardinals as 21/2-point favorites.

Mostly dismissed after a season-opening loss to San Francisco, Arizona regrouped last week on the road and routed Jacksonville. Kurt Warner turned back the clock in one of his finest performances, proving the Cardinals are alive and doing more than kicking field goals.

Warner completed 24 of 26 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. He was an accurate, equal-opportunity quarterback by spreading the ball to nine receivers.

With targets Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, Warner has more options than a buffet line, and now he has a chance to feast on a weakened Indianapolis defense.

Manning will make big plays and move the chains, which is always a concern. But the Colts' 27-23 victory over the Dolphins could come with a hangover. The Indianapolis defense was drained and out of gas at the finish line.

Miami ran 84 plays and controlled the ball for more than 45 minutes. Colts defenders were dehydrated and gasping for oxygen, and their injury list is getting longer.

Already without their best defender, safety Bob Sanders, the Colts might be missing middle linebacker Gary Brackett and cornerback Kelvin Hayden. The defense was punished on the ground by the Dolphins, who rushed for 239 yards and converted 15 of 21 third downs.

Manning has the ability to mask most of Indianapolis' flaws. But in the second of back-to-back road games, and with a short-handed and tired defense, the Colts are limping into Arizona.

The Cardinals, 14-5 straight up at home the past two-plus seasons, are a good bet to cover because they are catching Manning at the right time and place.

Four more plays for Week 3 (Home team in CAPS):

? Titans (+21/2) over JETS: After sticking it to New England, the Jets showed they are legitimate. New coach Rex Ryan has an impressive defense, and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has a bright future. But this is more about the Titans, and remembering how good they were last season. Tennessee, a desperate team at 0-2, should find a way to win an ugly game.

? SEAHAWKS (+21/2) over Bears: Injuries at the quarterback position are old news for Seattle. Seneca Wallace might get the start in place of Matt Hasselbeck, but Wallace is capable of winning. Chicago was extremely lucky to beat Pittsburgh last week. Jay Cutler played better while leading an offense that lacks punch. The Bears' defense also has plenty of holes.

? Steelers (-4) over BENGALS: Pittsburgh is 0-2 against the spread and coming off a regrettable loss to the Bears. The Steelers are 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Cincinnati. Whether the Bengals are any good is a mystery, but it's usually better to bet against them. Pittsburgh's defense should dominate, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger needs to slam the door this time.

? Broncos (-1) over RAIDERS: The Denver defense has allowed a league-low 13 points and ranks No. 2 in yards allowed at 253.5 per game. We'll soon see if those numbers are for real. Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell sure looks like a fraud.

Last week: 4-1 against the spread

Season: 7-3

 

[Lumi]

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves
September 25, 2009

Every year in Pro Football there is an ?It? team in which the entire betting public attempts to ride out week after week throughout the year, and usually get there more times than not. This year it is the New Orleans Saints who have wowed the audience with a seemingly unstoppable offense.

Art Manteris, Vice-President of Station Casino?s huge operation of Las Vegas Sports Books can?t fault the perception.

?The Saints are one of the favorites of the public thus far because of their high powered offense and the fact that they have covered easily in in their first two games. I had a few respected people tell me early on how high they were on the Saints, and wagers on season totals reflected so.?

Station?s opened the Saints 9 under -135 and ended up closing 9 over -120. A huge variable in that total?s equation, the road game at Philadelphia, was answered last week when the Saints destroyed the McNabb-?less Eagles making the early moves seem to have a huge edge at this juncture.




Over at the Wynn Las Vegas, Johnny Avello is seeing the same type of public reaction to this years darlings of the public.

?The Saints are scoring at will, which goes a long way in the public?s mind. We opened the game Saints -5.5 and we?re currently at -6, ? Avello said.

Usually early lines are pushed up by the sharps giving an early glimpse to the hand that the they may hold, but it?s not the case this week with the Saints who also opened the game at -5.5.

?Thus far, we haven?t really seen any large bets on the Saints, Avello said, ?What we have is a huge culmination of wagers on the Saints that have passed our barrier of a moving based on money. -5.5 isn?t a number we sit too long at, but the money kept coming in early forcing our move.?

Avello was pointing how dead a number -5 or -5.5 is and if it?s that attractive early on, -6 shouldn?t affect how the public feels one way or another.

?It isn?t going to stop there either, Avello said. ?Since moving, we?ve had the same type of action coming in that we had at -5.5.

Avello also has the initial risk on the Saints game from the outset at his high limit book that already has him uneasy going into Sunday?s game.

?We have excess parlay?s from last Monday night?s game going heavy into the Saints game laying -5.5 making the risk uncomfortable before the real action even came in.?

If we look at the reality of the game, the Saints have won at home against Detroit and beat an Eagles team without their General. They are moving the ball at will, and the Philly win against one of the better defenses is impressive, however, the Sharps haven?t come in on a side yet. It?s likely that if, and when, the books eventually go to -7 there will be some sharp action on the Bills at home.

On the college side of the action, there have only been a few small moves. One of them is a side close to several people in Las Vegas with the UNLV Rebels at Wyoming this week where the line has gone from UNLV a -5.5 opening line home favorite all the way to -3.

?I think that move is coming straight from a past performance aspect of the Rebels on the road, UNLV alumnus Manteris said. ?UNLV just hasn?t produced under Coach Sanford?s tenure on the road.?

There is a tremendous amount of support for Manteris' road theory on UNLV as to why the sharps and public are betting against the Rebels?

In the last five seasons after a non-conference game, UNLV is 1-10 straight up as a favorite on the road. In the last two years, UNLV has gone 0-8 SU against a Mountain West team on the road.

Laying an initial line of -5.5 after the power ranking had Wyoming getting only +7 against the struggling Big 12 team of Colorado does seem a little based on UNLV's past road history.

Big Moves of the week - Lines courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

College Football

Minnesota -1.5 @ Northwestern: This has been bet early and often throughout the week where Northwestern opened as a -3 favorite Monday and on Thursday afternoon pushed the home team being favored -1.5 to the road team -1.5.

Maryland -1 vs. Rutgers: Pushed from Rutgers a -3 points favorite Monday to pick, but on Thursday afternoon Rutgers money came in where it settled back at -1.

Boston College -2.5 vs. Wake Forest: Wake opened up a -1 home dog but has been systematically bet to B.C. the favorite.

UNLV -3 @ Wyoming: Rebels opened up -5.5 and has been bet down to -3 by Thursday morning.

Utah -14 vs. Louisville: The Utes opened a short -12 on Monday but was bet quickly to -14 by Tuesday morning.

USC -46 vs. Washington St.: Combination of Barkley starting and a large line that moves quickly has moved the Monday line from Monday?s opener of -43 to -46.The large spread doesn?t and move doesn?t mean as much as a game in single digits.

Pro Football

Eagles -8.5 vs. Chiefs: Game opened Monday at -9.5 at limited action. Not many books offered a line.

Giants -6.5 @ Buccaneers: Early bets came on Tampa at the attractive number of +7, nothing since.

Saints -6.5 @ Bills: Public appears to have pushed this up from the opening number of -4.5.

Cardinals -3 +105 vs. Colts: Number opened -2 and is inching closer to -3 flat which it might be by game day. The variance will be the public in the late game betting the Colts.

Cowboys -8.5 vs. Panthers: Line opened -9.5, bet down by Tuesday where it?s stayed. Since it?s a Monday night game, it?s likely to go up more than it will go down courtesy of the public by game day.

Dead Games: No action at all one way of another on the side or total of the Bears/Seahawks and Browns/Ravens games.

 

[ThomasJ]

illuminati, thanks for the thread, one stop top shelf reading my friend.

 

[Lumi]

I am always happy to provide info to help everyone win, unless of course they are on the otherside of my play :shrug: :mj07:

 

[Lumi]

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES


THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE TEXANS (-31/2) over the JAGUARS

After two weeks, it's obvious the Jaguars are offensively challenged. Averaging 14 points a game is not going to cut it.

The Texans' offense came alive last week against the Titans, which is what you can expect from them on a weekly basis.

The Jags have given up 279 yards passing a game. The Texans will exploit their secondary and blow this game open.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE 49ERS (+7) OVER THE VIKINGS

Both teams have good defenses, which should produce a close game.

Vikings Adrian Peterson is being slowed by injuries. That might be enough to keep it closer.

The 49ers allow only 53 yards rushing a game. If Peterson is contained, that swings the edge to the 49ers.

LAST WEEK: 1-1

SEASON: 2-2