WEEK 4 CFB INFO

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Meyer says flu among his team at "panic level"


University of Florida coach Urban Meyer said that spread of flu among his players is at a "panic level," although none of them have swine flu.

The coach of the top-ranked defending national champions said running back Jeff Demps, tight end Aaron Hernandez and defensive end Jermaine Cunningham all were kept separate from the team in the days leading up to Saturday's 23-13 win over Tennessee. All three played, but Meyer admitted "they were beat up pretty good."

Meyer said team physicians are taking all necessary steps from quarantine to treatment to prevent the spread of flu among his team. He was most concerned with Demps because he just began showing symptoms. Hernandez and Cunningham appear to be at the tail end of the energy-draining illness.

In addition, linebacker and defensive captain Brandon Spikes will wear a protective boot due to an Achilles strain.

Florida gives 22 points in its visit to Kentucky this weekend.

 

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South Florida QB Grothe done with torn ACL

South Florida QB Grothe done with torn ACL

South Florida QB Grothe done with torn ACL

South Florida quarterback Matt Grothe's start streak and season are over.

Grothe, who had started 41 straight games for the Bulls, suffered a torn left ACL in Saturday's win over Charleston Southern and is out for the season, the school announced on its web site.

A starter since his redshirt freshman season of 2006, Grothe is the Big East Conference's all-time leader in total offense with 10,875 yards. He was responsible for 46 percent of USF's total offense this year, throwing for 512 yards and running for 121.

"It?s tough losing a player and leader of Matt?s caliber," USF offensive coordinator Mike Canales told the web site.

Redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels was 10-of-13 for 149 yards and one TD in place of Grothe and likely will get the start at Florida State next weekend. The Bulls are 14-point road dogs in the first meeting between the schools.

 

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Disrespected Unbeatens

Disrespected Unbeatens

Disrespected Unbeatens
September 23, 2009

There are plenty of ways for a coach to motivate his players to win a college football game. He could play the ?we?re better than them? card or even say that the boosters are about to get them all kick ass new cars. The most popular option for a head coach to use when getting his team hyped is talk about the lack of respect they?re getting from everyone not in their locker room.

Yeah, the Rodney Dangerfield angle is clich?, but there is no doubt that it works. We?ve already seen a couple spots were teams have received no respect. Last week there were winless teams favored over teams that broke into the win column and ranked teams were ?dogs to unranked opponents.

There are some unbeaten squads that will no doubt feel a tad slighted this Saturday. That?s because they?re going into their contests listed as underdogs against teams with a blemish on their record.

Now we shouldn?t really be surprised by this at all. Some of the spots make perfect sense for a one-loss squad to be favored against an unbeaten program.

If you don?t buy into that, then let me ask you this: Do you really believe that the Rams are going to win outright as 15-point road underdogs at Brigham Young? I know that Colorado State has came up with wins against the Buffaloes and Wolf Pack, but those aren?t exactly quality wins. And despite getting their ass handed to them by Florida State, the Cougars have the talent and chip on their shoulder to be victorious in Provo. I?m sure their wives will love it

Dennis Erickson and Arizona State are listed as a 12 ?-point road pup against the Bulldogs. There are a couple reasons that the Sun Devils aren?t getting respect for a trip to Athens. First, double-digit victories against Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe are like winning a game of Perfection against a guy with no arms. And Georgia did win in Tempe last season?albeit with Matthew Stafford under center and Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. We could see a lot of scoring through the air as the Devs are averaging 214.0 passing yards per game and the ?Dogs have given up 721 passing yards against South Carolina and Arkansas.

While those teams have a reason to be listed as underdogs, Texas Christian?s listing this Saturday comes off as strange. The Horned Frogs are listed as three-point road ?dogs against Clemson this week. TCU was picked by your esteemed pundits here to run away with the Mountain West Conference in 2009. Perhaps what happened to BYU last Saturday night is altering this line. Or maybe we?re reading too much into the line itself.

Bodog?s Richard Gardner offers his insight into this week?s number. ?For the TCU game, we will be looking to use Clemson -3 (even) and TCU +3 (-120), but we do want to stay on three. When looking at this game and these two teams we expect a close game and gave Clemson the three points for home field advantage.?

When you look at both sides, the first thing you notice is that both TCU and Clemson have great defenses. The Horned Frogs are eighth in the nation in total defense (213.0 YPG) and the Tigers are 19th (257.0 YPG). Clemson is also coming off of a win against the Eagles that they allowed just 54 yards.

What this game will hinge on is how well C.J. Spiller is able to run on the Horned Frogs. Spiller has picked up 176 yards on the ground so far this season. Now he?s taking on a unit that is third in the country by giving up only 43.5 rushing YPG thus far. Something else to keep an eye on is Spiller?s injured foot. The recent reports are saying that he?s been limited in practice, but the injury isn?t considered serious.

Dave Wannstedt has slowly been building up his squad in Pittsburgh over the last five years. The Panthers are 3-0 for the first time under his guidance. However, they?re not getting respect at the betting shops at the moment as Pitt is a one-point road pup against the Wolfpack.

While that line is short, Gardner doesn?t see it going further than that. ?For North Carolina State, we would not be surprised to see some movement on this line and could easily see some early money coming in on Pitt +1 where the game gets pushed to a pick by game time.?

The main focus on this game will be on how well NC State?s Russell Wilson plays against the big boys. Wilson racked up 573 yards and eight touchdowns in his last two games. Great numbers, but they came up against Gardner-Webb and Murray State ? neither are ranked in the FCS Top 25. In his only start against an FBS, Wilson threw for 74 yards and was sacked six times.

Pittsburgh is allowing 292.3 total YPG on defense this season. However, the Panthers have been rabid on the pass rush in averaging at least five sacks per game in 2009. And Pitt is 14th in the nation with eight tackles for loss per tilt this year.

 

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Is there value in Trojans' futures odds after upset loss?

Is there value in Trojans' futures odds after upset loss?

Is there value in Trojans' futures odds after upset loss?

BCS pundits may tell you that USC's season is over. Wagering wonks may tell you that it's just begun.

There have been a lot of upsets through just three weeks of the college football season, but USC's 16-13 loss to Washington last week may be the biggest thus far.

However, the Trojans are still very much in the hunt for the Pac-10 title and a BCS berth. They could play for the national championship - but will need some help.

And the stunning setback to the Huskies may give the Trojans added value as a potential Pac-10 champion - or even national champion.

"Since we are so early into the conference season, there could be value on the Trojans if you think that they could run through the rest of their Pac-10 schedule without incurring another defeat,"

USC's loss has opened up the Pac-10 a bit - not necessarily for Washington, which seems unlikely to engineer a worst-to-first turnaround, but perhaps for California or Oregon, which have the personnel to play with USC.

Perry pointed out that USC remains the favorite to win the Pac-10, although its price dropped from -300 to -150. Meanwhile, Cal climbed from +300 to +150.

"One team that we have seen some recent action to win the Pac-10 is Oregon, who currently is at +800," he said.

Perry also noted that USC's schedule in October isn't a walk in the park.

"USC still has three fairly difficult road games on October 3rd against Cal, October 17 vs. Notre Dame, and on Halloween at Oregon," he said.

Those are tough games but certainly winnable, especially for a team that has won or shared the conference title every year since 2002. And the Trojans get some immediate help this weekend, when the loser of the Cal-Oregon game takes a huge step backward.
It is conference showdowns that can get the Trojans back into the national title picture as well, although handicappers don't believe they can.

Perry's outfit moved USC's championship odds from +700 to +2500 after the loss to Washington. Jay Kornegay, the Executive Director of the Race and Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton, was even more blunt.

"We don?t think they have a chance of getting to the championship game," he said.

The Hilton did not post Pac-10 futures odds, but Kornegay said USC opened at +350 to win the national title. The Trojans had dropped to +450 before the loss to the Huskies, which dropped them to +2500 - and may make them a solid value bet.

Here are three things to keep in mind regarding USC's national title chances:

1. As daunting as Florida may appear, the Trojans don't have to climb to No. 1. They only have to get to No. 2 and get in the BCS title game.

2. USC's loss came with backup quarterback Aaron Corp. If the Trojans run the table with Matt Barkley back at the controls, poll voters may give less weight to the loss. That happened in 1989, when Miami lost to Florida State with backup Gino Torretta but still won the championship.

3. The loss came early in the season. If USC wins out, it will close the regular season with nine straight victories - including three on the road over potentially ranked foes - which would produce a steady climb in the rankings.

The Trojans also should benefit from some natural attrition among the 14 remaining unbeatens with legitimate title aspirations.

In the SEC, Florida plays LSU, which also plays Mississippi, which also plays Alabama. In the Big Ten, Michigan and Penn State face each other and both also play Ohio State.

In the Big 12, Texas plays Kansas, and both play Oklahoma. In the ACC, Miami plays North Carolina, both play Virginia Tech, and Miami also plays Oklahoma.

So don't count out the Trojans just yet. In fact, they might even be worth a wager as a championship long shot.

 

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CFB Four on the Floor

CFB Four on the Floor

CFB Four on the Floor

Our powerful database tells us that Game Four is a critical turning point for most College Football teams, especially if they?re playing off their first loss of the season. From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game Four ATS results as well. Check out the situations of teams in Game Four, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980...

BAD HOMERS
Teams playing at HOME in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 74-95-1 ATS overall mark. Home teams in that role this week include: Boston College, BYU, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon State USC and Utah. Bring their opponent in off an ATS Loss and they slip even worse, going 25-40 ATS. The Beavers and Cornhuskers qualify here. To top it off, put them up against a team with a win percentage of greater than .500 and they drop to 7-23 ATS (Nebraska and Oregon State), including 3-17 ATS in conference games. Oregon State will find out what it?s like to be in this role when they host Arizona this week.

GOOD VISITORS
Teams playing AWAY in this role somehow find pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 90-69-1 ATS. This week finds Arizona, Louisiana Lafayette, Minnesota and Texas Tech taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. When these teams are also off an ATS loss they improve to 80-50-1 ATS in these ?Game Four On The Floor? situations. And if the opponent is off a loss they ratchet up to 34-17 ATS. That would put Arizona and Louisiana Lafayette in this desirable role. And if they are facing a conference foe that is of a SU and ATS loss they become 14-3 ATS material. Arizona will go through all four speeds this week ? both ?on and against? Oregon State.

There you have it... a critical Game Four theory that will likely ?floor? a team or two this week!

 

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HYPE - A Gambler's Best Friend

HYPE - A Gambler's Best Friend

HYPE - A Gambler's Best Friend

It's not uncommon to see a Top-25 team drop five or 10 slots in the rankings, especially after a major loss. However, rarely does a club move up eight or more notches in a given week as Miami- Florida did in the latest AP Poll.

The Hurricanes went from 20 to nine after dismantling Georgia Tech by 16 points last Thursday. Not only did the 'Canes hold the Yellow Jackets to just 95 yards on the ground (after giving up 472 in last year's meeting), they picked up 454 total yards themselves and now rank 16th in the country in total offense.

Is everyone getting too carried away with Miami? After all, knocking off Florida State was not an earth shattering upset. The underdog had won the previous four meetings and the road team was victorious in the last three. Moreover, the Hurricanes did not take over the lead for good until the final two minutes and even then the Seminoles still had a chance to win on the game's final play.

Miami had revenge on its mind when Georgia Tech came to town last Thursday. In addition, the 'Canes had three extra days to prepare since their game with Florida State was on a Monday night. That point was evident early on as they opened up 17-3 halftime lead, which was soon extended to 24-3 on the first drive in the third quarter.

Randy Shannon's club has won its two games in front of nationally televised audiences and the whole world expects the modest two-game winning streak to now advance to three. Miami opened as a two-point underdog against Virginia Tech, but the public has jumped all over the Hurricanes, who are currently favored by three in Blacksburg.

Did Virginia Tech's one-point home win over Nebraska scare its supporters to death? The Hokies did need an amazing final drive in the last two minutes to gain the victory but Nebraska was ranked ahead of Miami going into last week's action!

It's true Frank Beamer's squad is not playing great ball this year, especially on defense where the Hokies have allowed a whopping 364 yards per game. But they did hold Zac Lee to just 11-of-30 through the air for 136 yards and two interceptions. Furthermore, the defense has given up only four touchdowns on the year and only one in two games at home.

Virginia Tech has won four of its last six meetings with Miami while covering six of the last seven. This is also a revenge game for the Hokies since the Hurricanes won last year's game, 16-14.

Don't forget that Miami has its home opener the following week against Oklahoma, who blew away the 'Canes, 51-13, two years ago. They shouldn't be looking ahead to that contest since this game is far more important, but for a young team that's garnering a remarkable amount of national coverage, the players might be a little too hyped-up heading into this one.

By the way, for those wondering how other clubs have done after jumping up the AP Poll in just one week's time. There have been 12 BCS teams since 2004 that moved up at least eight slots and only two were able to cover the spread the following week.

Virginia Tech is this week's lone Five-Star play.

Take Virginia Tech plus the points.

AFTER THREE WEEKS

I went 8-9 last weekend for a three-week total of 29-26, good for a 53% winning percentage. There were no Five-Star plays so that record remains at 1-2. The Three-Star selections finished 5-3 in week two so that mark stands at 10-11. The Two-Star plays are now 11-8 after a 2-4 week and the One-Star picks are a combined 7-5 after winning one of three games in week two.

As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games where there is at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star plays are the secondary selections.

THREE-STAR SELECTIONS

This week's Three-Star plays begin on Friday night with Nevada plus the points at home against Missouri.

The other selections are Indiana (at Michigan), Iowa (at Penn State), Mississippi State (vs. LSU), Texas Tech (at Houston) and Middle Tennessee (at North Texas).

TWO-STAR PLAYS

Southern Miss has won eight games in a row but the Golden Eagles will face their biggest challenge this Saturday at Kansas. The Jayhawks have won five straight, including three this season by a combined score of 127-26. However, they have not faced a team with as much speed as Southern Miss and could find themselves on the losing end, especially with running back Jake Sharp less than 100% with an injured calf.

Take the Golden Eagles plus the points.

Lost in all the hoopla of Washington's victory over Southern Cal is the fact that Idaho outgained the Huskies by 38 yards while reaching the red zone on five separate occasions in the 19-point loss. Last week, the Vandals hosted San Diego State and blew away the Aztecs by two touchdowns.

Northern Illinois is coming off a tremendous road score over Purdue, which should have the Huskies feeling a tad overconfident against an annual WAC bottom feeder. In addition, they are 1-9 ATS as home favorites the last three years and their next game is a MAC battle with Western Michigan, a team that has defeated them three straight seasons.

Take Idaho plus the points.

Road games have not slowed down Pittsburgh of late as the Panthers have won seven of their last eight regular season games away from home. More importantly, they are 7-2 as away underdogs since the start of the '07 season, with four outright victories.

North Carolina State will be Pittsburgh's next victim as the Wolfpack are not only besieged with various injuries, they have been affected by the H1N1 virus the last week or so. The offensive line has been a train wreck this season allowing three sacks to Gardner-Webb last Saturday for a grand total of 11 in the first three games. Remember, this offense racked up only133 yards in the lone FBS game, a 7-3 home loss to South Carolina. Additionally, NC State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite and 4-16 going back to '03.

Take Pittsburgh to get the road victory.

ONE-STAR PLAYS

This week's secondary selections are Army (at Iowa State), Fresno State (at Cincinnati) Bowling Green (vs. Boise State) and Purdue (vs. Notre Dame).

 

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NCAAF betting's notable quotes

NCAAF betting's notable quotes

NCAAF betting's notable quotes

Hawkeye Hell

The betting marketplace hasn?t been high on Iowa since its struggles on opening day against FCS Northern Iowa, needing two blocked field goals in the final seconds to come away with the victory. Since those opening day difficulties, the Hawkeyes have been a strong pointspread proposition, winning and covering against Iowa State and Arizona in the last two weeks.

The Hawkeyes defense has been the difference maker in each of their last two victories. They forced six turnovers against Iowa State, holding the Cyclones to a single field goal. This past Saturday, Iowa held Arizona to 253 yards of total offense and eight first downs.

The defense has a new motto this season - Six Seconds of Hell.

?We just go hard for six seconds every play, because that's usually how much a play takes. That's what we did,? defensive end Broderick Binns told reporters.

Arizona head coach Mike Stoops was extremely impressed with the Iowa stop unit.

?We knew defensively they're as good as anybody we've played. They're bigger, they're faster than what people give them credit for,? Stoops told the media.

The Hawkeyes defense will be in for a tough test when they travel to Happy Valley to face the revenge-minded, undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions Saturday night. Penn State is a 10-point favorite in that game, with the total set at 40.

Boise Bullies

Boise State and USC are the only two programs in the country to win 80 games, make seven bowls and win at least six conference titles since the start of the 2002 campaign. The Broncos burst onto the national scene with their overtime win against Oklahoma in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, but their dominance in WAC play is nothing new. The Broncos are 66-4 SU in the WAC since 2000 following their win at Fresno State last Friday night.

Boise State was tested at Fresno. The run defense got torched, allowing 320 yards on the ground (8.2 yards per carry). The Broncos allowed three breakaway touchdown runs of more than 60 yards.

"When you can't control the run game, it's not a good feeling,? said head coach Chris Peterson. ?We had guys in position, we just didn't tackle well. That's the bottom line. We're really fortunate we could miss tackles like that, give up that many yards and points and still come up with the 'W?.?

The Broncos hung tough while facing the relentless Fresno State charge thanks to their own offensive prowess. Wide receiver Jeremy Avery has a trio of 60-plus yard gains, gaining a whopping 269 yards from scrimmage.

?We knew we had to answer back as an offense,? he told the press. ?We didn't let it get to us. We knew we had a high-powered offense and could do the same thing. We gathered our troops and we all clicked. When we all clicked there was no stopping us.?

Count Fresno State head coach Pat Hill as a believer that the Broncos are capable of putting together another undefeated season in 2009.

?Every time we closed the gap, Boise, to their credit, would make a big play. When it looked like we would have a chance to get the ball back, bang, they'd make a play,? Hill said.

This week, Boise State travels to Bowling Green for a non-conference affair against the Falcons. Boise State beat BG 20-7 at home last year, failing to cover the 17-point spread. This time around, BSU is a 16.5-point road favorite with the total set at 51.

Seminole Shocker

Florida State found a way to lose on the last play of the game against Miami in the season opener. Then the Seminoles were nearly upset the following week by FCS Jacksonville State, trailing until the very final minute of the fourth quarter. No surprise, then, that the Seminoles were more than a touchdown underdogs as they travelled to Provo to take on undefeated BYU.

The expression ?speed kills? is very valid in the college football world. Florida State?s speed absolutely blew away the BYU defense. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder passed for 195 yards and ran for 77 more. Ponder spent some time after the game talking about his team?s newfound confidence and chemistry.

?It shows us what we can do,? he told reporters. ?It's the first time in a while we played as a whole team. The defense played great. The offense played incredible.?

The Seminoles coaching staff sounded pretty upbeat after the game.

?I've been through this thing so many times, I knew we had an advantage. We went out there and made some plays, which we hadn't done lately, and we also forced some crucial turnovers,? head coach Bobby Bowden told the media.

Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher threw praise at his starting quarterback.

?He can beat you with his arm, his legs and his mind. And then he can also beat you with how competitive and tough he is,? Fishers said of Ponder following the game.

BYU was impressed with the preparation level of their opponent, a rarity in recent years when talking about Florida State.

?I think Florida State was more prepared in general than we were tonight, really from beginning to end,? head coach Bronco Mendenhall told the media.

Florida State returns home for a potential flat spot as they face South Florida Saturday, before their first conference road game at Boston College next week. The Seminoles are 14.5-point home favorites with the total set at 50.5.

Bear Droppings

Cal barely covered the spread in a hard-fought win at Minnesota last Saturday, winning by 14 in a game that was lined with the Bears favored by 13.5 points. But make no mistake about it ? Cal was as good as advertised in its first test of the young season.

Defensive end Tyson Alualu wanted to erase the memory of last year?s 0-4 road record.

?We tried to make a statement that we're going to be road warriors this year. It's a different team than last year,? he said.

Bears running back Jahvid Best tied a school record with five touchdowns in the game. The darkhorse Heisman contender certainly impressed the opposition.

?He's probably the fastest running back I've ever played against,? Minnesota linebacker Lee Campbell admitted. ?You had to keep him corralled. You saw what happened. When he got outside, he's gone.?

Gopher star wide receiver Eric Decker was knocked out of the game for a stretch following a vicious hit. He was impressed with the intensity of the Bears defense.

?I can't remember the hit. They're a tough, physical team,? Decker told reporters.

Cal head coach Jeff Tedford was positively euphoric after the game.

?It is great to play a tough game and to be able to play well in the fourth quarter and make plays when you need to make plays in all phases of the team,? he said. ?I think it will give us a boost and give us a little bit of confidence.?

Cal faces another road test on Saturday as it travels to Eugene to take on Oregon. The Bears are 5.5-point road favorites with the total set at 58.

Achilles' Heels

North Carolina came into the season with numerous question marks on both sides of the football. The Heels have won three straight to open the season, notching their first 3-0 start in the Butch Davis era following their 31-17 win over East Carolina last Saturday.

?We're a work in progress. Let's don't make any mistakes about it,? said Davis. ?We're going to have challenges. We're going to have adversity. ... But our kids believe in each other and the coaches believe in the kids and they just keep trying to find a way to fight and give us the best chance to play as well as we can each Saturday.?

East Carolina was impressed by the Tar Heels talent on both sides of the football. Pirates head coach Skip Holtz was surprised by the abilities of North Carolina?s completely rebuilt receiving corps following the graduation of NFL draft choices Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate and Brooks Foster.

?Their receivers showed more today than they had showed on film,? said Holtz. ?They were dialed-in and focused. They did a nice job with it ... because when you watched them on film, they had dropped a bunch and their passing game was a little bit out of whack, but they were impressive today.?

East Carolina quarterback Patrick Pinkney struggled against North Carolina?s defensive talent.

?When you've got NFL-bound players coming at you every play, it's hard,? Pinkney told reporters.

The Tar Heels defense held East Carolina to 247 yards one week after completely shutting down UConn.

North Carolina faces a tough test this Saturday as it travels to Georgia Tech to take on the Yellow Jackets, still smarting from their ugly loss at Miami last Thursday. Georgia Tech is a 2.5-point home favorite in that game with the total set at 46.

 

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Missouri at Nevada (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Missouri at Nevada (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Missouri at Nevada (9:00 PM ET, ESPN)

Nevada finally opens its home schedule, but the assignment will be anything but easy. The opponent is Missouri, who is off to a 3-0 start despite having to move on this season without several of its major offensive stars that graduated last spring. Not surprisingly, the Tigers are the 7.5-point favorite in this battle of undefeated vs. winless clubs. Over 90% of bettors at Sportsbook.com aren?t afraid to lay the points either.

The Wolf Pack brought back 14 starters and a number of key reserves that were supposedly ready to move into starting slots. Junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick was ready for breakout junior season after promising first two years in Reno. However, offensive-minded Nevada hung a zero on the scoreboard in South Bend and much of the reasoning given was Notre Dame?s attacking blitz-scheme coming to fruition with bigger and faster players. That theory has been discarded with the Fighting Irish allowing 68 points in the next two games.

After being gashed for 178.5 yards on the ground and surrendering seven touchdown passes thru the air, it doesn?t look like defense will be a strong suit for Nevada.

Coach Chris Ault prides himself as an offensive coach but his team has been ?offensive? in committing eight turnovers and scoring only 20 points this season. Kaepernick hasn?t shown the same accuracy as before and has been somewhat less inclined to take off and scamper. Maybe putting on the blue uniform will help the Wolf Pack (0-2, SU & ATS), who are 7-3 ATS at home in non-conference play.

After pounding Furman, Missouri (3-0, 1-1 ATS) gets back to the business of playing real football teams, traveling to Reno. Coach Gary Pinkel knows the offensive problems that arose against Bowling Green have to be avoided because the Wolf Pack are very dangerous at home.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert has quickly grown into the Tigers offense, being on the mark to receivers Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. He?s benefitted from excellent protection from his offensive line and an adequate running game churning out 4.2 yards per carry.

Sportsbook.com has Missouri as 7.5-point road favorites, with a rising total of 60.5. The Tigers are 6-2 SU & ATS in true road games and are 8-0 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. One would expect the talented Kaepernick to raise his level of play and make good on national TV after the Notre Dame debacle. Playing before a friendly home crowd, Nevada is 19-8 ATS under coach Ault and 10-2 ATS at home when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Nevada?s biggest issue is going to be stopping the Tigers? attack since they are only 1-9 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the last two seasons. At the very least, the Wolf Pack ought to peeved after being shellacked 69-17 in Columbia last year.

ESPN has this Big-12/WAC clash starting at 9 Eastern. Sportsbook is the home for the real action though, with numerous wagering options for you to consider.

 

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Fresno State (1-2) at (14) Cincinnati (3-0)

Fresno State (1-2) at (14) Cincinnati (3-0)

Fresno State (1-2) at (14) Cincinnati (3-0)






GAME NOTES: The 14th-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats look to remain unbeaten on the young season, as they clash with the Fresno State Bulldogs in a non-conference affair at Nippert Stadium this weekend.

The Bearcats have been one of the more impressive teams early on and they are currently ranked 14th after opening the season outside the Top 25. Last weekend, Cincinnati showed what it was all about and defeated Oregon State, 28-18, snapping the Beavers' streak of 26 straight non-conference victories at Reser Stadium that dated back to 1996.

"We came here to play a Pac-10 team that hadn't lost 26 straight games," said head coach Brian Kelly. "It's not an easy place to play. It's a tough trip to make and our kids fought through everything."

The defending Big East champions have certainly picked up right where they left off and are now 3-0 with convincing victories over Rutgers (47-15) and Southeast Missouri State (70-3) to begin the season.

As for Fresno State, it hasn't had the same kind of success and has dropped two straight games following a 51-0 win over UC-Davis to open the season. Last week, the Bulldogs opened Western Athletic Conference play against favored Boise State and they weren't able to keep pace with the nationally-ranked Broncos in a 51-34 home setback.

"This is a young team early in the season and we are going to get better and better," said head coach Pat Hill. "We will learn from this game."

The Bulldogs certainly have some growing up to do and this weekend would be a perfect time, as the program faces Cincinnati for the first-ever time on the gridiron.

Except for seven turnovers, Fresno State has had little problems on offense this season and comes into the game averaging 495.3 total ypg, including 269.7 rushing ypg. Last week, the Bulldogs rolled up 507 yards of offense, including 320 on the ground, but it wasn't enough in a loss to Boise State.

Despite the loss, tailback Ryan Mathews had a standout performance, as he rushed for 234 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries. It marked the third highest single-game total in school history and all three of his touchdowns came from 60 yards or longer.

"Our line was doing a really good job pressing their defensive line back and the running backs were doing a good job of running where the holes were," said Mathews. "I just wanted to make it a point that I belong with the best. Our line did so good, I give all the credit to them."

Mathews has now rushed for 447 yards this season and he is averaging 9.1 yards per carry courtesy of last week's performance.

Unfortunately for Fresno State, it can not get the same type of production out of quarterback Ryan Colburn, who has thrown six interceptions through the first three games. Colburn hit on 14-of-29 pass attempts for 187 yards and a score last week, but he was picked off twice, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

The Bulldogs' defense did little to give the team a chance to win against Boise State and allowed 480 total yards in the loss. The unit surrendered 299 yards on the ground behind a 10.3 yard per carry average, while also allowing the Broncos to convert 18-of-26 pass attempts.

"They have some magic going on right now," said Hill about Boise State. "They made big plays when they needed to."

Another big area of concern for this defense has been its inability to make big plays. After three games, Fresno State has recorded just two takeaways and the same amount of sacks and that simply won't get the job done.

Chris Carter has recorded both of the team's sacks, while Ben Jacobs paces the defense with 25 tackles for the season.

Quarterback Tony Pike may not be a household name yet, but he will be by season's end. After guiding the Bearcats to the Big East title, Pike has continued to flourish and is leading an offense that is averaging 516.7 total ypg on the season. In a hostile environment last weekend, Pike showed his talent as well as leadership skills, throwing for 332 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 31-of-49 tosses. He also added a rushing touchdown in the win at Oregon State.

"It shows a lot of last year compared to this year," said Pike. "We went down early with the crazy, unbelievable crowd. You know, Oregon State is a great team; an obvious top 25 team. We were able to go through some tough times and come back out of them."

For the season, Pike has now completed 70.8 percent of his pass attempts for 923 yards and eight touchdowns and those are noteworthy numbers.

Mardy Gilyard is Pike's go-to-guy and he leads the team with 23 catches, 265 yards and four touchdowns. A threat every time he touches the ball, Gilyard hauled in nine balls for 65 yards and a score last weekend. D.J. Woods had a career night as a second option against Oregon State and he grabbed seven passes for 117 yards and a score.

The Bearcats don't rely on the run all that much, but they have done a good job in averaging 157.0 ypg behind a 4.8 yard per carry average thus far.

Cincinnati's defense will get overlooked by the offense, but the unit played a big part in last weekend's win. The defense kept Oregon State in check, allowing just 344 total yards, and also came up with some by plays, recording five sacks. Not bad for a unit that lost 10 starters from a year ago.

The Bearcats, who are giving up just 271.0 total ypg after three outings, held the Beavers to only 104 rushing yards and a 5-of-17 effort on third downs.

Walter Stewart had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble in the win, while Drew Frey led the unit with 12 stops. Stewart was making his first career start in place of injured linebacker Curtis Young and he certainly made an impact.

The Bearcats are clicking on all cylinders right now and behind Pike, they should be able to continue their success at home this weekend.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cincinnati 38, Fresno State 20

 

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Pack football: Nevada's focus shifts inward for home-opener


Like most college football coaches, Nevada's Chris Ault often says, "It's not about them, it's about us."

Despite the fact that a ranked team has the Wolf Pack in its crosshairs -- No. 21 Missouri (USA Today/ESPN poll) at 6 p.m. tonight in the Wolf Pack's home-opener at Mackay Stadium -- that notion might mean more this week than it ever has.

Through two games this season, the Wolf Pack has committed eight turnovers and forced none. It has been penalized 15 times (opponents, seven). And, not coincidentally, it has yet to win with losses at Notre Dame (35-0) and Colorado State (35-20).

"When we are making mistakes, they are critical," Ault said. "And it's just killing us."

Tonight's game has taken on added importance for the Wolf Pack simply because it must play well or risk the chance of this slow start burrowing into the team's subconscious.

"We've got to focus on ourselves and what we've got to get done so we can be a winning program like we usually have been," junior defensive end Kevin Basped said. "We just need to start fast and eliminate the errors. We've got to stay together and

fight on."

Ninth-year Tigers coach Gary Pinkel, who brought his Toledo team to Mackay in 1995, believes the Wolf Pack is ready to break out.

"I know we're excited to play. I know they're going to be," Pinkel said. "They've had a couple tough football games and had a lot of turnovers. They're a better football team then what their records have shown. Notre Dame and

Colorado State are good football teams.

"Their fans will be into it, I guarantee you. This is a good game for us, against a real good football team in a tough environment. We're going to find out about ourselves a little bit."

Although the Tigers lost a lot of talent from the team that beat Nevada, 69-17, in Columbia, Mo., last year, they have done a good job replacing it. Missouri has only 14 seniors on its roster, and only five are expected to start tonight. Ten of the starters are sophomores and freshmen.

One factor that might work in the Wolf Pack's favor is that these young Tigers are effectively playing their first road game of the year. They beat Illinois in their opener, 37-9, at St. Louis, and then defeated Bowling Green (27-20) and Furman (52-12) in Columbia.

"It's our first real road game, so we're excited for the challenge," said senior linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who had a game-high 12 tackles, 21/2 for loss, in the win over Nevada last year. "They've got a good team up there. We had some scares with them when they came here last year because they have a quarterback (Colin Kaepernick) that can create mismatches, so we've really got to go out there and be sound and play solid football."

The Wolf Pack would not appear to match up real well with the Tigers.

Nevada has moved the ball pretty well in its first two games, but has had trouble scoring because of the mistakes. Missouri has allowed 325, 320 and 398 yards to its first three opponents, but has allowed just 13.7 points per game. Nevada was second in the nation in big plays (scoring plays of 25 yards or more) last season. So far this year, Missouri has allowed just seven plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers allowed nine such plays to Illinois alone last season.

Weatherspoon, the weakside backer, is the leader on defense, but he's had plenty of help. Freshman defensive end Aldon Smith is exceptionally quick off the snap and already has four tackles for loss, two sacks and two pass break-ups. Jaron Baston, a 305-pound nosetackle, is a rock in the middle who started every game last season.

Another match-up issue for the Pack is that Missouri's defense is better against the run, the Pack's bread and butter. Opponents average just 105 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. The Tigers have allowed 62 percent passing and 242 yards per game through the air. Part of that comes from the fact that the Tigers have been comfortably ahead in two of their three games, so opponents end up throwing the ball more.

"I think we're doing OK," Pinkel said, referring to his secondary. "Every week there is going to be a different answer to that question. ... (Cornerbacks) Carl Gettis and Kevin Rutland have played really well.

"... This week is a different challenge with option football. The quarterback can run really well, which puts a lot of pressure on the corners. My big thing is I just want to play more focused. One play can change a football game, especially back there. There is no one else back there."

The mismatches continue on the other side of the ball, where the Pack has struggled giving up big plays.

Mizzou's strength is its passing attack behind sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert -- who statistically is having a better sophomore season than 2008 Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel had in 2006 -- and senior receivers Danario Alexander and Jared Perry. Sophomore Wes Kemp completes the Tigers' three-receiver set. The trio combined for 44 receptions for 663 yards and eight touchdowns in the first three games.

The Wolf Pack could counter with a new line-up that debuted against Colorado State when ends Basped, Dontay Moch and Ryan Coulson were all on the field at the same time in some situations, usually passing downs.

"As a coach, you try to figure out a way to get your best 11 on the field where it's not going to hurt you," Nevada defensive coordinator Nigel Burton said. "That's what we tried to do. It helped us last week. You've just got to be smart about what situations you do that."

The Tigers, though, are more balanced than they were a year ago. Mizzou had 235 first downs passing and 100 first downs rushing last season. So far this year, that ratio is 32-32.

Derrick Washington, who rushed for 75 yards and two TDs against Nevada in 2008, is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Tigers are also slowly introducing Kendial Lawrence, a 5-foot-9, 185-pound freshman and Parade All-American. He's had 21 carries and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

If all that sounds a bit scary, it should. But it really doesn't matter to the Wolf Pack.

"Right now, we've just got to get back in our groove," Kaepernick said.

Additional Facts
Wolf Pack Football
Who: Missouri (3-0) vs. Nevada (0-2)
When: 6 p.m. today
Where: Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf; capacity, 29,993)
EXPECTED CROWD: 25,000-26,000, according to Nevada officials
TV: ESPN/630 AM, 5 p.m.
Betting line: Missouri is favored by 71/2 (line opened at 71/2); total is 61
TICKETS: $19-$41; 348-PACK or nevadawolfpack.com

 

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College Football Saturday Betting Preview

College Football Saturday Betting Preview

College Football Saturday Betting Preview

With Joe Paterno a college football legend, the former Brooklyn native knows his team has taken on three tomato cans and will face a squad with pulse in Big Ten opener against Iowa. The ACC has pair of arresting games, with Miami now a favorite at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech looking to knock North Carolina out of the unbeaten ranks. California has USC next, but can?t overlook perfidious Oregon first. Arkansas has given Alabama problems in the past, can they again with quality offense? Speaking of offense, the most fun game by far looks like Texas Tech at Houston, where the score is already 17-13 and they haven?t kicked off yet. Lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com.

North Carolina (+2.5, 45.5) at Georgia Tech Raycom 12:00E

The Tar Heels returned nine starters on defense and this has been the strength of the team early in the 2009 campaign. They will now be tested by Georgia Tech?s powerful option offense in Atlanta. Coach Butch Davis? defense held Connecticut offense to 196 total yards and did a good job in limiting East Carolina to 13 first downs and 17 points last week. What?s encouraging is the defense has been a team concept, with 11 different players having made tackles for a loss. They are tied for 10th in the country in points allowed at 11 per game. The offense still needs work as quarterback T.J. Yates is searching for the right chemistry with receivers. North Carolina is 8-4 ATS as single digit ACC underdog.

Georgia Tech has an extra two days to prepare after losing at Miami 33-17 on ESPN last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets success or failure will in part fall upon the right arm of junior Josh Nesbitt. Far from a polished passer, Nesbitt can throw the pigskin accurately when he sticks with his mechanics. When he deviates, he can stink up the joint like he did against Clemson, going thru 1 for 11 spell.

Teams with big physical defenses that have enough quickness on the defensive front, are starting to have success against triple option attacks. This means Nesbit has to continue to be a clutch performer and come up big when called upon as he has in the past with 5-2 and 5-1 ATS record in games decided by four or less points.

Georgia Tech has won three of last five but is 0-5 ATS since 2004 versus the Tar Heels. North Carolina in fact is 11-4 against the spread in last 15 ACC affairs, with the underdog a nicely profitable 8-4 ATS. Watch the oddsmakers line for movement on this contest, with the Heels 8-4 ATS catching three or less points. The Yellow Jackets escaped 27-25 as nine-point home favorite in 2007 and they are 21-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.


Arkansas (+17.5, 58) at Alabama CBS 3:30E

Coach Bobby Petrino has a more veteran team this season and has less to worry about from the mental standpoint after his squad lost 52-41 to Georgia at home, before getting ready to play Alabama. Nothing would satisfy Petrino?s ego more than to start knocking off giants like the Crimson Tide, so he could update his resume for the next job he?s seeking on his Linkedin or Facebook pages. His quarterback is Ryan Mallet, whose displayed NFL arm and ability to find different receivers in Razorbacks offense. Mallet will be tested all game long by Alabama defense that can make QB?s make poor choices. The Hogs head to Tuscaloosa 10-4 ATS as away dogs.

Coach Nick Saban?s defense is like the boss in the office meeting who quietly takes everything in and once he?s seen or heard enough takes control. The first few Crimson Tide opponents have had some success moving the ball in the first part of the game, but like a water faucet, are turned off after showing what they expect to do. Field general Greg McElroy has shown growth weekly, delivering strikes to receivers and improving complete view of the field. McElroy strength as a thrower is the deep ball and he?ll have numerous opportunities against Razorbacks secondary. Despite a bushel full of athletes, Bama special teams are anything but and the squad is 7-16-1 ATS as SEC favorites of 10 or more points.

This has been one of those SEC series. The home team is 5-10 ATS and has failed to cover the last four engagements and with Mallet?s big arm and talented pass catchers, Arkansas has at least a puncher?s chance to cover the spread. The straight up winner is 15-3 ATS all-time when these two universities get together, but has been trending the other way at 1-3 ATS the last four years.

Alabama has won a school record 17 straight SEC openers (8-9 ATS), while the Razorbacks are 4-12 ATS in first conference road trip. Remember also, the Tide is 0-7 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 17-5 UNDER at their place after three or more consecutive wins.


California (-5.5, 55.5) at Oregon ABC 3:30E

California is off harder than expected trip to the Land of 10,000 Lakes and feels prepared to open Pac-10 play with two treacherous weeks ahead. The Bears offense is in good hands when potential All-American Jahvid Best is carrying the ball. Chances are with all the talent on the field for Cal QB Kevin Riley, he doesn?t have to be great all the time; however he might be called upon to be so in enemy territory this week. Though the Bears defense can really get after the passer, they can be passed on (ranked 62nd), especially between the hash marks away from corner Syd?Quan Thompson. Cal is unsightly 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back road tilts.

Each game played places Oregon further away from LeGarrette Blount incident, nonetheless doesn?t mask obvious shortcomings. The Ducks receivers have been more likely to catch the H1N1 virus than Jeremiah Masoli passes and the junior quarterback has thrown his fair share of passes this season that have wobbled like, well, a duck. After being bottled up by Boise State, the running game has averaged 205 yards per game the last two weeks. The defense hasn?t impressed anyone (82nd in yards allowed), though linebacker Casey Mathews is emerging as playmaker and senior cornerback Walter Thurmond III is an excellent pass defender in a league stuffed with quality defensive backs. In reviewing history, Oregon is 18-4 ATS in first conference clash.

Four of the last six confrontations between these squads have been decided by seven points or less. California is 5-0 ATS playing a Pac-10 foe off a non-conference contest, with average winning margin of 38.6 points per game. Oregon is 21-14 ATS taking on ranked teams the last decade and 12-2 ATS after playing a game at home. Before losing 31-24 in Eugene in 2007, The Ducks had rattled off six straight wins over the Bears with six covers.


Miami (-3, 47.5) at Virginia Tech ABC 3:30E

It?s sad really, from 1992 until 2003, a Miami and Virginia Tech battle was the essence of Big East football. The games weren?t always close, but they spoke about what made the conference as it grew in stature. These two rivals still meet in ACC action, but the importance has been somewhat diminished.

Coach Randy Shannon clearly did not look at Miami?s schedule before taking the job in 2006, since only a person with only short term job ambitions would want to play an early schedule that includes Florida State, Georgia Tech, the Hokies and Oklahoma in its first four games. Miami?s new wide-open offense has unleashed QB Jacory Harris, who has embraced the idea of throwing the ball to a variety of receivers. The defense is rounding into formidable unit and is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. The Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in last nine road excursions.

This is Virginia Tech?s third consecutive contest in Blacksburg and they are jacked after knocking off Nebraska in 16-15 thriller this past week, in a game they never should have won. Beamer-ball is often solely associated with special teams, yet what makes Frank Beamer an elite coach is finding offensive linemen that enjoy opening up chasms and shifty running backs who can fly thru them. Add in relentless defenders that run to the ball and the real recipe for success is realized playing Beamer-ball. The Hokies are 34-9 and 29-14 ATS since joining the Athletic Coast Conference.

Virginia Tech is 9-5 and 11-3 ATS versus Miami since 1995, including 5-1 against the spread record at Lane Stadium. The wagering public is both not impressed with the Hokies and very impressed with the Hurricanes, taking the ACC matchup from a Pick, to Miami by three.

The Hokies are only 5-5 ATS in the third of three or more consecutive home games and are just 7-11-1 ATS with home field advantage the last four seasons. Expect the Canes defense to stack the box like the Huskers did and force QB Tyrod Taylor to move the chains. Look for coach Shannon to use RB?s Graig Cooper and Javarris James to go after the Hokies 108th ranked run defense (200.3 YPG). The Hurricanes will have to crank up the offense, scoring more than 17 points once in last six contests.


Iowa (+9.5, 40.5) at Penn State ABC 8:00E

Iowa has drawn very few patsies in Big Ten openers since the new millennium began and this will be no different traveling to State College, PA. The Hawkeyes have been 4-0 twice in the previous six years and a third time would bring significant attention to Kirk Ferentz?s football program, beating highly ranked Penn State. Iowa football is about the basics, blocking and tackling. The offensive line has started to come together and pair of freshmen running backs (Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson) has folks in Iowa City excited. If QB Ricky Stanzi continues to read defenses proficiently and finds the hot receiver, the Iowa defense will hold up their end of the deal, ranked 14th in points surrendered at 12 per game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.

At this juncture, it?s not easy to gauge just how good Penn State is or isn?t. Most top level teams would plow through Akron, Syracuse and Temple at home, just like the Nittany Lions have. The Penn State players? hearts should be racing, as Iowa handed them their only regular season loss a year ago, 24-23 as seven-point road favorites. Senior Daryll Clark has been accurate thrower, as the offensive line has been better at pass-blocking compared to run blocking in September to this point. With the competition in the lightweight category, what we know about the defense is they can stop the run and prevent big plays. Penn State is 8-3 ATS when favored by 17 or fewer points at home in the last four years.

Joe Paterno?s defense has held three crummy opponents to 6.7 points per game, however, Iowa?s not exactly an offense juggernaut ranked 68th in total offense. The Hawkeyes are 4-14 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry. Iowa however has held the upper hand with 7-3 and 8-2 ATS mark over Joe Pa?s troops in the last 15 years. The underdog has bitten as much as it could chew with 8-2 ATS record, including five outright upsets. And get this, Penn State is bizarro-world 0-14 ATS vs. defensive teams who give up 12 or less points a game.


Texas Tech (+1, 73) at Houston ESPN2 9:15E

It?s back to work for Houston after a bye week, enjoying the adulation of knocking of then No.5 Oklahoma State on their home field 45-35. They will try and knock off another Big 12 team, Texas Tech, this time at home. Being 3-0 with two wins over Big 12 teams will have Houston and Conference USA being mentioned as BCS bowl-crasher this season. Coach Kevin Sumlin has taken what Art Briles (now at Baylor) started and improved it. The Cougars are ranked for the first time in 18 years and there is a lot of excitement about triggerman Case Keenum. The junior quarterback makes exceptional decisions in finding speedy and quick receivers. With all the praise, coach Sumlin?s toughest job might be refocusing his team; not playing Texas Tech. Houston is 15-25 ATS in non-conference play since 2000.

Texas Tech comes off the Texas revenge game and played better than expected in 34-24 defeat. QB Taylor Potts is the next signal caller in the Mike Leach assembly line that gets rid of the ball quickly and makes good reads. Potts has security blanket in wide receiver in Lyle Leong, who has been his best friend since elementary school and the two have played football together all along the way. Red Raiders coaches like what they got from running back Tre? Newton against the Longhorns, rushing for 88 yards. With the playing surface less an issue today for the sports bettor than before, Texas Tech is a curious 10-22 SU and ATS in regular season games on natural grass.

As Mississippi proved Thursday night, playing with expectations can be stifling experience and this is what Houston has tonight. With win over Okie State, Houston is 10-5 ATS versus BCS schools since 2001, but is 0-9 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. Coach Leach is one of the best bounce back coaches in the game off a loss; with his team 25-12 ATS in next effort. The total is vexing figure with Texas Tech 27-9 OVER off a cover and the Cougars 8-2 UNDER after a bye week.

 

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More College Football Wagering Opportunities

More College Football Wagering Opportunities

More College Football Wagering Opportunities

The beautiful part of the fall on Saturday?s is the college football never stops, there?s always a game on. For those that prefer to watch their wagers, it can get a little crazy. On any given Saturday, there are plenty of secondary games that don?t get as much ink or YouTube space, thus take a gander at a few other wagering options outside the box. Lines from Bookmaker.com

Southern Miss (+13.5, 60.5) at Kansas FSN 12:00E

This might turn out to be the best under the radar game on the board. Both teams believe they are serious contenders to play in respective conference championship games. Southern Miss appears to be returning back to the days of being team nobody wanted to play and is loaded with experience with 19 returning starters. Coach Larry Fedora is convinced his team is better than recent 2-7 ATS record as underdog. Fedora should know a thing or two about Kansas, since he was at Oklahoma State recently as assistant. Good matchup for Kansas, who has breezed thru three opponents. Coach Mark Mangino?s troops are 18-7 ATS as home favorite and 20-6 against the number the last three seasons.

Pittsburgh (+1, 47) at N.C. State ESPNU 3:30E

Coach Dave Wannstedt hopes his pass defense is ready for N.C. State and QB Russell Wilson. The Wolfpack are not prolific passing team, but after watching the tape on how Buffalo threw for 433 yards, they have to be willing to change on the fly. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS away from home the last four years and will bring one of the more balanced offenses in the country to Raleigh. N.C. State is off a pair of confidence building FCS contests and might not be ready for physical play of Pittsburgh. Watch the line to see if it moves again, as the Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS as an underdog, but just 12-22 ATS as a home favorite.

TCU (+2.5, 42.5) at Clemson ESPN360 3:30E

How is this serious matchup only online? Texas Christian returns to ACC country for second taste, after vanquishing Virginia 30-14 in first game. QB Andy Dalton will have to be more accurate than he was in the Horned Frogs opener, as he missed open receivers. TCU is 20-13-2 ATS off a victory. Not the best scheduling for Clemson, having to play a Top 25 quality team sandwiched around ACC conflicts. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS vs non-league competition the last few years and won?t find always aggressive TCU any easier. Clemson will have to find running game against always stout Frogs defense and they are 1-8 ATS when they rush for less than 2.5 yards per attempt.

Florida (-21.5.55) at Kentucky ESPN2 6:00E

After a couple of years off, SEC schedule-makers have Florida playing Kentucky after Tennessee tussle again. The Gators tumbled the Vols by ten as 30-point chalk and have not found the Wildcats a pushover after emotional contest. Florida has finished off the Wildcats 22 straight times, but are just 2-5 ATS the last seven years. Kentucky is off annual battle with in-state rival Louisville and is 2-0 to open SEC action. QB Mike Hartline continues to develop and will need huge game if Kentucky is to improve 8-4 ATS as a home dog and possibly shock the world. Florida is 12-3 ATS as favorite since last season and is 15-6 ATS before a bye.

Arizona (+2.5, 44.5) at Oregon State Versus 7:30E

Arizona opens Pac-10 play versus a club they can?t figure out. The Wildcats are 1-9 SU & ATS against Oregon State, losing by 16.4 points per game. Arizona hasn?t flashed much offense breaking in quarterback Matt Scott and will try redshirt sophomore Nick Foles, at least for now. The offensive line has to carry additional burden, especially with tight end Rob Gronkowski, likely out for the season with a back injury. The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS as underdogs of three or less. Oregon State is off disappointing contest with Cincinnati and will seek to keep hex on Arizona. The Beavers depend heavily on the Rodgers brothers-James and Jacquizz - for offense. Oregon State secondary has been burned, however Arizona doesn?t look capable of taking advantage of them. The favorite is 10-3 ATS in this matchup.

Notre Dame (-7, 60) at Purdue ESPN 8:00E

Purdue was supposed to be a bottom feeder in the Big Ten, but with the way they are scoring points, the Boilermakers will move up quickly. New coach Danny Hope has given Purdue hope they can be better than expected and the Boilers are 9-4 ATS in the second of two or more home games, after washout loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame is 6-3 ATS against Purdue this decade, yet has lost four of last six outright at Ross-Ade Stadium. The Irish defense will have to take a step forward to contain RB Ralph Bolden, since they are 15-29 ATS when they allow 22 to 28 points. QB Jimmy Clausen and top notch receivers should excel vs. Purdue secondary, with the Irish 14-4 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 425 or more yards a game.

 

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Carroll, USC no longer sure thing

Carroll, USC no longer sure thing

Carroll, USC no longer sure thing

Because he's a gambler, Southern California football coach Pete Carroll has many admirers. Obviously, a lot of gamblers are losers. But Carroll gets enthusiastic about taking risks, and he usually wins.

Carroll is bold, charismatic and creative. He never shows up for a big game wearing a sweater vest, and he knows when it's better to go for it on fourth down at the 1.

Jim Tressel and Norv Turner are poster boys for conservative chokers. Charlie Weis rolls the dice at the wrong time and craps out.

It's easy to criticize coaches for the errors in their ways. While watching the Miami Dolphins on Monday night, some of their play-calls were so strange, I wondered if the coaches were passing a whiskey bottle on the sideline.

Carroll has been different because he rarely gets ripped. In the aftermath of the Trojans' 16-13 loss at Washington on Saturday, however, he's hearing criticism for being too conservative.

But the coach probably deserves a break this time. It's too simple to pin the tail on Carroll and call him the donkey.

It was a stunning fall for one of college football's most reliable point-spread coaches. True, he lost to Stanford as a 40-point favorite two years ago. But he frequently covers as a favorite, and in Las Vegas, where we scrutinize every coach's game-management decisions, Carroll is regarded as solid.

Review the latest USC disappointment, and, in reality, it was mostly offensive coordinator John Morton and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, the main play-caller, who got too conservative.

The Trojans are also more vulnerable because their quarterbacks, Matt Barkley and Aaron Corp, are inexperienced. Barkley was injured and did not play last week. Corp got the start and failed miserably.

The Trojans were 18-point favorites, and their loss, said The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall, ''strikes a real blow to the veneer of USC's invincibility.'' Marshall said he expects the Trojans to lose one or two more times this season.

USC's offense was at its best when future NFL quarterbacks ran it and Norm Chow and his disciples coordinated it. Chow handed off the job to Lane Kiffin, who was replaced by Steve Sarkisian. Chow is at UCLA, Kiffin is at Tennessee and Sarkisian is at Washington.

''They are missing that connection to Chow now,'' Marshall said. ''Carroll is clueless about the offense. He's a defensive guy. I thought it was pathetic play-calling late in the game (against Washington). They were so unbelievably outcoached in that game.

''I don't know if Barkley can do it yet, and I surely know Corp can't do it. Corp doesn't look good, and, frankly, I didn't think Barkley looked good the previous week.''

As a result, Carroll is not looking as good. His weakness -- being clueless about the offense -- is fully exposed. But he will bounce back as Barkley gets better.

Barkley is expected to start Saturday, when USC hosts a Washington State team that is a bad joke. The Trojans, who whipped the Cougars 69-0 last year, are 46-point favorites.

''They might beat Washington State 70-0,'' Marshall said, ''but that would not solve their problems, which would pop up against the better teams.''

Carroll is normally a cash machine for bettors. He was 26-7 against the spread in 33 games before this season. After this week's scrimmage, the Trojans are on the road against California on Oct. 3.

"I really expect Cal to beat USC next week,'' Marshall said.

The Trojans visit Notre Dame on Oct. 17, and the Irish's fight to get Weis off the hot seat was helped by their 33-30 victory over Michigan State last week.

But Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen is hobbled by a toe injury, and star receiver Michael Floyd is out with a broken collarbone. Notre Dame is a 7-point favorite at Purdue, and Marshall is backing the Boilermakers as one of his top plays.

"I think this game maybe has upset written on it,'' Marshall said. ''Weis isn't out of the woods yet. He was lucky to win that game last week. I think he's in some trouble this week. Last year, in the games Floyd missed, the offense couldn't do anything.''

Marshall (goldsheet.com) recommends two more underdogs -- Colorado State plus-17 at Brigham Young, and Army plus-10 at Iowa State.

* CLOSING NUMBERS -- Brigham Young and Florida flopped, and I went 2-4 last week to drop to 7-11 for the season. My six picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Illinois (+14) over OHIO STATE; GEORGIA (-11) over Arizona State; NORTH CAROLINA STATE (-1) over Pittsburgh; PURDUE (+7) over Notre Dame; Texas Tech-HOUSTON (Over 73); OREGON STATE (-21/2) over Arizona.

 

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Saturday's Heroes Tackle The Spread

Saturday's Heroes Tackle The Spread

Saturday's Heroes Tackle The Spread

 

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Book: Sharp action moving lines for prime-time games

Book: Sharp action moving lines for prime-time games

Book: Sharp action moving lines for prime-time games

No. 12 Miami-Florida (2-0, 2-0 ATS) at No. 13 Virginia Tech (2-1, 1-2 ATS)

Where the Line Opened: Miami -1.5

Where it Stands Now: Miami -3

What are the Sharps Backing: Miami -1.5 & -2.5. Wise action came on the Hurricanes -1.5 on Monday and -2.5 on Wednesday.

Over/Under Movement: Unchanged at 47

What the Book is Rooting for: Virginia Tech and Over. Almost 67 percent of action on spread on Hurricanes and 59 percent of action on total is on Over.

Injury Report: Miami: TE Richard Gordon (arm), DT Marcus Forston (foot) are out, Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams (ankle) and Stephan Virgil (knee) are probable

Comments: After their impressive performances on national TV against both Florida State and Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes are now once again one of the most dominant college football programs. This game will come down to if Frank Beamer's Hokies defense can neutralize QB Jacory Harris and the Hurricanes offense.

It looks like Hokies RB Ryan Williams? ankle is fine and he will be in the starting lineup. Good news for Virginia Tech, considering it already lost RB Darren Evans for the season (ACL injury). Miami won, but didn?t cover last year's meeting between the schools, 16-14, when the Canes were 4-point favorites. The total was 41 in that game.

Iowa (3-0, 2-0 ATS) at No. 4 Penn State (3-0, 0-3 ATS)

Where the Line Opened: PSU -10

Where it Stands Now: PSU -9.5

What are the Sharps Backing: Over 39.5. Sharp action here came on Wednesday.

Over/Under Movement: 39.5 to 40.5

What the Book is Rooting for: Under. We are almost dead split on the side here, as 51 percent of bets are backing Iowa, so we will likely have bigger decision on total than side for this game.

Injury Report: Iowa: Iowa TE Tony Moeaki (ankle), WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (hamstring), LT Bryan Bulaga (illness) are doubtful; Penn St: MLB Sean Lee (knee) is doubtful, SLB Navorro Bowman (groin) is probable

Comments: This is a revenge game for Nittany Lions, who suffered a heart-breaking 24-23 loss to Iowa last season. If Penn State won that game, it was a shoe-in to play in the BCS Championship game. PSU was -7.5 last year and the total was 42.5 The problem for Iowa here is that it doesn?t have RB Shonn Greene anymore, who rushed for 117 yards and two TDs in the upset last season. While Penn State hasn?t covered a game this season, it has only allowed a grand total of 20 points. The final score has gone under the posted in all three of Penn State?s games.

Notre Dame (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Purdue (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

Where the Line Opened: UND -8.5

Where it Stands Now: UND -6.5

What are the Sharps Backing: Purdue +8.5, +7.5 & +7. Wise action came on Monday at both +8.5 and +7.5. Following day, we moved game to Irish -7. On Wednesday, got a sharp bet at +7, so moved to current number of 6.5.

Over/Under Movement: 59 to 60

What the Book is Rooting for: Purdue and Under. Couple fairly small decisions here as 55 percent are backing UND & 56 percent of total action are behind the over.

Injury Report: UND: WR Michael Floyd (collarbone) out for season, QB Jimmy Clausen (collarbone) and RB Armando Allen (ankle) are probable; Purdue: LG Eric Hedstrom (shoulder) is doubtful

Comments: This is a matchup of disappointing teams. Purdue gets embarrassed by Northern Illinois last week at home, so the boo birds will be out early in East Lafayette if the Boilermakers come out flat. Notre Dame barely got by the Spartans in the last few minutes to squeak out a 3-point win as a double-digit favorite last week.

Charlie Weis needs to get his play calling in quicker and have more faith in his QB Jimmy Clausen, by allowing him to call his own plays more often. The Irish smoked Purdue 38-21 last year as 2-point favorites and the total was 47.5 in that game. Purdue needs to show it can stop the rush early on, or ND will kill it on the ground like Northern Illinois did.

Texas Tech (2-1, 2-0 ATS) at No. 23 Houston (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

Where the Line Opened: Houston -1

Where it Stands Now: Texas Tech -1.5

What are the Sharps Backing: TTU +1 & Pick. Sharp action came on Texas Tech +1 on Thursday, and the play at Tech pick 'em came this morning about 11:30 a.m. ET.

Over/Under Movement: 73.5 to 74.5

What the Book is Rooting for: Houston & Under. Being one of the last games on Saturday, this game looks like it will be one of the bigger decisions for the book. Almost 75 percent of side action is backing Texas Tech and 70 percent are on the Over.

Injury Report: TT: DT Rajon Henley (ankle) and Franklin Mitchem (arm) are out

Comments: Texas Tech gave a great effort in Austin last week against Texas. This is another great chance to show that the Red Raiders are a legitimate team. The Red Raiders are still just fine at quarterback, as Taylor Potts has been splendid in 2009, throwing for 12 TDs, compared to four INTs and completing 69.5 percent of his passes.

The one college team that most resembles the New Orleans Saints, at least from an offensive point-of-view, are the Houston Cougars. QB Case Keenum has been Drew Brees-like so far in 2009. All he did against then ranked No. 5 Oklahoma State on the road was throw for 366 yards on 24 for 36 completions, and four TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing).

 

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Report: Tebow among Gators feeling sick Saturday

Report: Tebow among Gators feeling sick Saturday

Report: Tebow among Gators feeling sick Saturday


Florida Gators star quarterback Tim Tebow is among the players feeling under the weather heading into Saturday?s SEC showdown with the Kentucky Wildcats. Books have set the Gators as 20.5-point road favorites.

According to Independent Alligator, a source close to the team said Tebow traveled to Kentucky in a separate plane, along with other players feeling the flu-like symptoms including safety Major Wright.

As of Saturday morning, Tebow is listed as probable versus the Wildcats. According to Logans.com oddsmaker Michael Perry, the book will continue to stay close to their numbers (21.5, 53.5) but he doesn't rule out a drastic move if the former Heisman winner was declared out. Logans.com is currently dealing -21 as of 10:05 a.m. ET Saturday.

"Now if word were to come that Tebow is doubtful to start, then you will see a 2 to 3-point shift on the game, and it would probably settle around -19 at gametime," says Perry.

Some online markets have dropped their numbers on the game, going as low as -20 with the total taking a turn to 52.5 points at some books.

Head coach Urban Meyer told reporters earlier this week that between 30 and 35 players were sick over the last four weeks but did not mention Tebow among them. Calls to the Gators athletics department have not been return nor has the school released any statement on players? conditions.

If Tebow is sidelined Saturday, sophomore John Brantley will take the snaps. Brantley has played in two games this season, completing 18-of-24 attempts for 202 yards and three touchdowns.

Running back Jeffrey Demps, tight end Aaron Hernandez and defensive end Jermaine Cunningham were among the players who took the field against Tennessee last weekend while still feeling ill. Linebacker A.J. Jones and cornerback Joe Haden were two new cases heading into the weekend.


Saturday's total is set at 53 points.

 

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Where the action is: Saturday's college football line moves

Where the action is: Saturday's college football line moves

Where the action is: Saturday's college football line moves
There are plenty of college football games on the go Saturday and lots of lines are moving. Here are the most dramatic changes to the spread and total over the past 12 hours.

Florida at Kentucky

Word is spreading that UF quarterback Tim Tebow is among the 35 players suffering from flu-like symptoms over the past four weeks. Tebow, along with the Gators' other sickies traveled to Lexington on a separate jet as not to infect the remaining roster. He is currently listed as probable but many books have dropped Florida to as a low as a 20-point favorite after opening at -23. The total has also fallen with news of Tebow's illness. The number is as low as 52.5 after opening at 54 at some books.

Michigan State at Wisconsin

This line has moved from -3 to -3.5 but suddenly dropped to -1.5 as of early Saturday morning. The Badgers are shuffling the offensive line with players getting healthy. There is rain in the forecast for today?s game, keeping things on the ground. That o-line will have their work cut out for them against the MSU defense which has eight sacks on the season.

Idaho Vandals at Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois has dropped from a 17-point home favorite to -15 as of Saturday morning. These 3-0 ATS teams matchup very well, however, the Vandals have gotten the nod from college football . Could that be why Idaho?s spread is shrinking? Maybe. Maybe not. But take a look at our front-page pic of Vandals QB Nathan Enderle. Coincidence?

Rutgers at Maryland

This line has been all over the road like Lindsay Lohan?s daily commute. Opening with the Terps set as 1-point home dogs, the spread has moved as high as +2 but suddenly fell to -1 in the last 24 hours. The reason behind the move: Rutgers' QB questions. Freshman pivot Tom Savage is dealing with a concussion and is a game-time decision for Saturday. If he doesn?t play, recently demoted five-year senior Domenic Natale will take the snaps. Natale was horrid in his first game of the season, tossing three interceptions against Cincinnati. Savage has been steady since taking the reigns and has yet to get picked off. Third-stringer Jabu Lovelace could also take a few snaps versus Maryland.

Toledo at FIU

This total has jumped in the last 24 hours, moving from as low as 56 to as high as 59.5 as of Saturday morning. Toledo?s pass-heavy offense was shutout against a pissed-off Ohio State team last weekend but still ranks among the best air attacks in the nation. Florida International has only scored a total of 29 points in its first two games but last year?s meeting with the Rockets produced 35 points for the Golden Panthers.

Texas Tech at Houston

This spread has flip-flopped all week, moving from Houston -1 to +1 as of Saturday morning. In what will likely be a gun fight, the Cougars are coming off a bye week while the Red Raiders are following a stronger effort against Texas than most bettors expected. Texas Tech will have bodies back on the defensive line. Starter Ra'Jon Henley and backups Ryan Haliburton and Brandon Sharpe missed last weekend but are listed as probable versus Houston. The Red Raiders are also very familiar with the Cougars' offense, which contains a couple things Houston coordinator Dana Holgorsen
carried over from his eight years in Lubbock