Racing & Betting at Dover this weekend
The ?Monster Mile? hosts the second Chase race, the AAA 400. In past Chase years, Dover International Speedway has had a noticeable impact on the standings. In fact, before Carl Edwards last year, no Chase leader going into this race had left with that lead still intact. Strangely, no eventual champion has won here either, so clearly there is a ton of racing yet to be had. Mark Martin leads the standings by 35 points after winning his series leading fifth race of ?09 at New Hampshire last weekend. However, it is Jimmie Johnson who is the favorite for Sunday, at 4-1 odds. For those folks on the East coast or perhaps attending the race, you?ll be able to bet on the outcome and football games for that matter, trackside at the casino, so study up! Here are the current standings, with nine races to go:
Pos. Driver Points, Behind
1. Mark Martin 5230, -
2. Jimmie Johnson 5195, -35
2. Denny Hamlin 5195, -35
4. Juan Montoya. 5175, -55
5. Kurt Busch 5165, -65
6. Tony Stewart 5156, -74
7. Ryan Newman 5151, -79
8. Brian Vickers 5140, -90
9. Greg Biffle 5138, -92
10. Jeff Gordon 5128, -102
11. Carl Edwards 5117, -113
12. Kasey Kahne 5069, -161
There are already three drivers over 100-points down and chasing at least nine others in the standings. In NASCAR Chase terms, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, and Kasey Kahne are already facing long odds of coming back and capturing the title. If you recall last week?s race writeup, I mentioned the fact that the Top 3 after Chase Race #1 in ?08 wound up being the Top 3 for the final standings. Getting off to a fast start has proven a common thread throughout the history of the Chase. In which case, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin figure to be the top contenders the rest of the way. That?s not to say that others like Juan Montoya or Tony Stewart should start thinking about 2010, but it does put a historical perspective on their chances. Incidentally, if anyone from the current Top 3 should separate this week at Dover, it is Hamlin, and unfortunately, by falling back. His stats at this track are far from impressive, 25.6 average finish while completing just 75% of possible laps through seven career starts.
Often forgotten in the last 10 weeks of NASCAR season nowadays is the fact that there are 31 other cars on the track and other goals to be realized. One of the most important races is for that of 13th place. The final occupant of that spot gets a $1 million bonus plus an invite to NASCAR?s prestigious season ending awards ceremony. Currently, Kyle Busch holds that distinction, 66-points ahead of Matt Kenseth.
The COT stats at Dover are very revealing, and suggest that the standings could undergo a major shakeup after Sunday. In fact, among the Top 12, half of the Chasers have averaged a finish of 20th or less in the five COT races run at this facility. Those drivers are Tony Stewart (20.6), Brian Vickers (20.8) Kasey Kahne (21.2), Juan Montoya (24.4), Kurt Busch (26.0), and Denny Hamlin (31.8). Combined, the six drivers have failed to finish eight of 30 starts while scoring just three Top 5 finishes. Other non-Chasers who have struggled in the COT at Dover are Elliott Sadler (27.8 avg.), Kevin Harvick (20.2), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr, (19.2).
Roush Racing has been the dominant team in the COT races at Dover, with Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Matt Kenseth each owning four Top 5 finishes since ?07. Biffle won this race a year ago and has two total Dover wins along with seven other Top 10 finishes in 14 career starts. Edwards has a series best 7.6 average finish in his career here, with 3.2 in the COT. The three Chasers from Hendrick have all done well over the course of their career, with Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, and Jimmie Johnson all having taken home four Dover checkered flags. Johnson has the most laps led of any driver in the COT races, 382. Besides Biffle, Edwards, and Johnson, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch are also winners at Dover in the COT.
Oddsmakers are following the NASCAR handbook for generating prices for this race, giving the three most frequent Chase winners this season the best chance at reaching Victory Lane on Sunday. Jimmie Johnson, at 4-1, is the heavy favorite, while Tony Stewart and Mark Martin, each at 7-1, are next. Combined, those three have 11 wins on the year. Greg Biffle is the only other driver in single-digit odds, at 9-1. Seven of the other Chasers are listed between 10-1 & 18-1, while Brian Vickers is considered the longshot at 35-1. Kyle Busch at 12-1 and Matt Kenseth at 22-1 seem to be the most likely non-Chase victors.
This is a difficult track at which to handicap a race in terms of recent results, since there are few others like it on the circuit. In fact, it is just one of two concrete surfaces, alongside Bristol. That said, there are a few key factors to consider. Track position is still very important here. In fact, qualifying has proved critical historically, as of the last 79 winners here, almost half, or 37 of them have started in the top three positions! Johnson started 8th in his June win. This week?s action starts with qualifying on Friday at 3:10 PM ET. The average Happy Hour rank for a Top 5 race finisher is 10.2 since ?05 and 13 of the L18 top finishers practiced in the Top 10. The green flag for the 400-lap, 400-mile race is set to drop on Sunday at 2:16 PM ET.
The ?Monster Mile? hosts the second Chase race, the AAA 400. In past Chase years, Dover International Speedway has had a noticeable impact on the standings. In fact, before Carl Edwards last year, no Chase leader going into this race had left with that lead still intact. Strangely, no eventual champion has won here either, so clearly there is a ton of racing yet to be had. Mark Martin leads the standings by 35 points after winning his series leading fifth race of ?09 at New Hampshire last weekend. However, it is Jimmie Johnson who is the favorite for Sunday, at 4-1 odds. For those folks on the East coast or perhaps attending the race, you?ll be able to bet on the outcome and football games for that matter, trackside at the casino, so study up! Here are the current standings, with nine races to go:
Pos. Driver Points, Behind
1. Mark Martin 5230, -
2. Jimmie Johnson 5195, -35
2. Denny Hamlin 5195, -35
4. Juan Montoya. 5175, -55
5. Kurt Busch 5165, -65
6. Tony Stewart 5156, -74
7. Ryan Newman 5151, -79
8. Brian Vickers 5140, -90
9. Greg Biffle 5138, -92
10. Jeff Gordon 5128, -102
11. Carl Edwards 5117, -113
12. Kasey Kahne 5069, -161
There are already three drivers over 100-points down and chasing at least nine others in the standings. In NASCAR Chase terms, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, and Kasey Kahne are already facing long odds of coming back and capturing the title. If you recall last week?s race writeup, I mentioned the fact that the Top 3 after Chase Race #1 in ?08 wound up being the Top 3 for the final standings. Getting off to a fast start has proven a common thread throughout the history of the Chase. In which case, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin figure to be the top contenders the rest of the way. That?s not to say that others like Juan Montoya or Tony Stewart should start thinking about 2010, but it does put a historical perspective on their chances. Incidentally, if anyone from the current Top 3 should separate this week at Dover, it is Hamlin, and unfortunately, by falling back. His stats at this track are far from impressive, 25.6 average finish while completing just 75% of possible laps through seven career starts.
Often forgotten in the last 10 weeks of NASCAR season nowadays is the fact that there are 31 other cars on the track and other goals to be realized. One of the most important races is for that of 13th place. The final occupant of that spot gets a $1 million bonus plus an invite to NASCAR?s prestigious season ending awards ceremony. Currently, Kyle Busch holds that distinction, 66-points ahead of Matt Kenseth.
The COT stats at Dover are very revealing, and suggest that the standings could undergo a major shakeup after Sunday. In fact, among the Top 12, half of the Chasers have averaged a finish of 20th or less in the five COT races run at this facility. Those drivers are Tony Stewart (20.6), Brian Vickers (20.8) Kasey Kahne (21.2), Juan Montoya (24.4), Kurt Busch (26.0), and Denny Hamlin (31.8). Combined, the six drivers have failed to finish eight of 30 starts while scoring just three Top 5 finishes. Other non-Chasers who have struggled in the COT at Dover are Elliott Sadler (27.8 avg.), Kevin Harvick (20.2), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr, (19.2).
Roush Racing has been the dominant team in the COT races at Dover, with Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Matt Kenseth each owning four Top 5 finishes since ?07. Biffle won this race a year ago and has two total Dover wins along with seven other Top 10 finishes in 14 career starts. Edwards has a series best 7.6 average finish in his career here, with 3.2 in the COT. The three Chasers from Hendrick have all done well over the course of their career, with Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, and Jimmie Johnson all having taken home four Dover checkered flags. Johnson has the most laps led of any driver in the COT races, 382. Besides Biffle, Edwards, and Johnson, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch are also winners at Dover in the COT.
Oddsmakers are following the NASCAR handbook for generating prices for this race, giving the three most frequent Chase winners this season the best chance at reaching Victory Lane on Sunday. Jimmie Johnson, at 4-1, is the heavy favorite, while Tony Stewart and Mark Martin, each at 7-1, are next. Combined, those three have 11 wins on the year. Greg Biffle is the only other driver in single-digit odds, at 9-1. Seven of the other Chasers are listed between 10-1 & 18-1, while Brian Vickers is considered the longshot at 35-1. Kyle Busch at 12-1 and Matt Kenseth at 22-1 seem to be the most likely non-Chase victors.
This is a difficult track at which to handicap a race in terms of recent results, since there are few others like it on the circuit. In fact, it is just one of two concrete surfaces, alongside Bristol. That said, there are a few key factors to consider. Track position is still very important here. In fact, qualifying has proved critical historically, as of the last 79 winners here, almost half, or 37 of them have started in the top three positions! Johnson started 8th in his June win. This week?s action starts with qualifying on Friday at 3:10 PM ET. The average Happy Hour rank for a Top 5 race finisher is 10.2 since ?05 and 13 of the L18 top finishers practiced in the Top 10. The green flag for the 400-lap, 400-mile race is set to drop on Sunday at 2:16 PM ET.
