NFL WEEK 4 INFO

[Lumi]

Fade Alert - Browns, Bucs, Chiefs

PARITY-"SHMARITY" IN THE NFL

We've often amplified upon the late Pete Rozelle's long-ago desire for "parity" in his beloved NFL. At the time in the early '60s, it was said that Rozelle had no desire for his league to become as imbalanced as Major League Baseball, where the Yankees were always dominant, or the NBA, when the Celtics were ruling the hoop universe. As commissioner of the league, Rozelle went to great lengths to ensure the "parity principle" by continuing the common draft and splitting television and merchandising revenues, which eventually helped pro football reach unimagined heights of popularity after the AFL-NFL merger.

Rozelle's successors, Paul Tagliabue and Roger Goodell, have mostly continued in that vein, adding modern salary structure mechanisms in recent collective bargaining agreements (more on that in upcoming issues) that further ensured that not only salary ceilings were implemented, but salary "floors" as well. All of those machinations have helped the NFL achieve the best "parity ranking" of any pro sports league; whereas teams rising from the depths of Major League Baseball, the NBA, and NHL in as little as one season are almost unheard of, it happens all of the time in the NFL. Indeed, only 19 of the 48 playoff entries from 2004-2007 made the postseason the following year. And the whole "parity" thing reached unimagined heights last season when numerous teams (think Falcons, Dolphins, Ravens, and Cards) emerged from the shadows after poor '07 campaigns to make the playoff lineup, while the Patriots, Cowboys, and Packers, all headliners in '07, missed the postseason altogether.



But as the 2009 campaign moves into October, the "parity" thing in the NFL might be taking a well-deserved break. Although it's still early in the season, an emerging chasm is developing between the "haves" and "have nots" of the league. We are suddenly beginning to wonder when the last time we might have seen such apparent class distinctions in the NFL.

Mostly, it reflects some real problem teams that appear to be in serious trouble this season. A repeat of last year, when numerous squads with first-year coaches (and a couple with rookie QBs) made dramatic turnarounds, appears unlikely. Of the new coaches in the league, only the Jets' Rex Ryan and the Broncos' Josh McDaniels have begun in encouraging fashion, although both inherited functional talent bases. That hardly seems the case in some other locales where wins (and pointspread covers) appear as if they might be hard to come by this season.

Following is a look at the teams that seem as if they might disappear into the abyss during the 2009 NFL campaign.

Cleveland Browns (0-3 straight up, 0-3 against the spread)... We have to wonder if the Browns might be better off not using a quarterback at all, perhaps running a full-time version of the "Wildcat" formation, maybe with former college QB-turned-WR Joshua Cribbs manning the position. Whether it be Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson at the controls, the Brownies can't score touchdowns, which is something of a handicap in the gridiron game. After last Sunday's 34-3 loss at Baltimore, Cleveland has now gone without an offensive TD in a staggering 8 of its last 9 regular-season games dating to last November. And whereas some of last year's problems could be assigned to injuries that knocked both Quinn and Anderson out of action, they've both been available for this tepid start to the '09 season, when the only offensive TD came in the waning moments of a one-sided opening week loss to the Vikings. Sources indicate that new HC Eric Mangini's numerous mind games (such as keeping his starting opening-week QB a secret) are not resonating in the locker room. In his last job, Mangini eventually lost the Jets' clubhouse, too, but it took three seasons for his situation there to unravel. After three weeks, the same things seem to be happening at his new gig in Cleveland, where angry Browns fans are wistfully reliving last year's coaching search when for a while it seemed as if the likes of Bill Cowher or Iowa's impressive Krik Ferentz were in the frame for the position following Romeo Crennel's departure. Maybe the Lerners ought to ask team consultant Jim Brown if he has any interest in whipping the troops into shape.

Tampa Bay Bucs (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS)...We devoted a lot of space to the current plight of the Bucs, whose losing streak since a year ago has now reached 7 in a row after last Sunday's ugly 24-0 home loss vs. the Giants. Among other problems, some NFL observers believe the entire Buc operation has not been a priority for the Glazer family since it purchased the Manchester United soccer team almost five years ago; indeed, since 2004, the Buc payroll has been the lowest in the NFL, and this season Tampa Bay is operating more than $30 million below the salary cap, more than twice as far underneath the cap as any other team. High profile free-agent acquisitions, once a regular offseason occurrence in Bucland, have been mostly absent the past few years. And the promotion of defensive assistant Raheem Morris to HC and of personnel director Mark Dominik to GM after Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen were dismissed, respectively, after last season, appear to many as cost-saving maneuvers, especially when far more qualified candidates are readily available. With a "non-cap" year looming in 2010, Buc fans are really worried that the Glazers will strip the payroll further next season. Last Sunday's loss vs. the Giants might have been the low ebb, with the team generating only 5 first downs and turning to little-used backup QB Josh Johnson after Byron Leftwich was completely ineffective.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS)...Whereas the intensity displayed by Todd Haley was regarded as a plus for the Cardinals when serving as their offensive coordinator the past few years (and as a balance for more-reserved HC Ken Whisenhunt), early indications are that his demanding ways might not be translating to the head coaching grind. The Chiefs have executed poorly at critical times in their last two games, a head-scratching loss to the Raiders and blowout setback vs. the Eagles, with on-field and sideline organization and execution both lacking. It's still early days for the new regime, but already Haley and new GM Scott Pioli (already dubbed "Ego-li" by K.C. Star columnist Jason Whitlock) are coming under some fire at Arrowhead, with others suggesting Pioli's biggest plus during his days at New England was merely having Bill Belichick available to coach and help with the talent evaluation. No such support apparently exists in K.C.

Others near the abyss: St. Louis and Oakland

 

[Lumi]

Opening line report: Peterson makes Minny a MNF fave

Opening line report: Peterson makes Minny a MNF fave

Opening line report: Peterson makes Minny a MNF fave

As if the Brett Favre hype machine needed any more fuel as he prepares for his Monday Night Football return against his former team, Sunday?s spectacular finish might have put it in overdrive.

Favre?s vintage last-second, scrambling 32-yard touchdown toss to a leaping Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone gave the Vikings a 27-24 win over the upstart San Francisco 49ers and set the stage for perhaps the most anticipated game of the regular season.

Pundits everywhere started speculating about the potential subplots of a Favre-led Vikings matchup against his former-employer-turned enemy, the Green Bay Packers, long before Favre and Minnesota made their dalliance official.

Now that it?s reality, oddsmakers and bettors have to get down to business. John Avello, director of race and sports operations for the Wynn Las Vegas, posted the Vikings (3-0, 2-1 ATS) as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under total of 46.

?You can look at all the stories surrounding the game and you can throw them in there, but you can?t use them for the handicapping aspect,? Avello said Monday.

The oddsmaker pointed out that the Vikings had to overcome deficits in their first two contests, road games against inferior teams in the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions, and also benefited from a fortunate outcome on the final play Sunday.

?I think yesterday was a gift, to be honest with you,? Avello said. ?He threw it up for grabs, and it looked like a great play, but there was nothing else he could do in that spot.?

Although the signature Favre highlight seemed to reinforce the core reason coach Brad Childress risked his job and the chemistry of his locker room to sign him, Avello emphasized that handicapping the game involves much more than the impact of No. 4.

The telling factor might be whether the defense of the Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) can slow down Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who remains the NFL?s rushing leader with 357 yards.

?Adrian Peterson is the story of the Vikings, not Favre,? Avello said. ?If the Vikings don?t have Peterson, the Packers would be the favorite in this game.?

This is because, Avello said, the Packers have shown they might have a strong enough club to contend in the NFC North. Favre?s successor in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay?s 36-17 win over the St. Louis Rams.

?The Packers rebounded after a horrible week (their 31-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals), and it looks they have a pretty solid football team,? Avello said. ?This is going to be one of the better Monday Night Football games as far as hype is concerned. I expect to see a lot of action, and you can make a case for either side.?

A game that might have otherwise been lost amid the Vikings-Packers headlines has turned into an early-season Bettors Bowl between the New York Jets and the New Orleans Saints (-7 for even money, total of 46.5). Each team is 3-0 in the standings and for the cash, and they have found their winning ways in contrasting methods.

The Saints are scoring at a record pace with an offense reminiscent of the Kurt Warner-led Rams. The Jets are winning with a dominant defense and a mistake-free offense, similar to the mode of operation coach Rex Ryan became familiar with when he was the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. The Rams and Ravens both won Super Bowls using their preferred styles.

?This week, the Jets are going up against a team that they are not going to be able to stop,? Avello said. ?They have to be able to counterpunch here. But New Orleans isn?t exactly known for its defense, either.?

Another Week 4 contest that holds some intrigue features the San Diego Chargers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) visiting the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2, 0-3 ATS). Both struggling teams need a win to get back on track, but those who consider backing the Steelers (-6, 42) might be bit gun shy after last year?s 11-10 win over the Chargers provided one of the most bizarre spread finishes in recent memory.

Chargers bettors appeared to have the money in hand until quarterback Phillip Rivers made a desperation pass deep in his own territory as time expired that ended up in the hands of Steelers All-Pro Troy Polamalu. The Pittsburgh safety returned it for an apparent touchdown that had Steelers backers momentarily counting the cash.

That is, until it was overturned by an official?s ruling of an illegal forward pass. Even so, Avello didn?t need to rehash the wild ending to be apprehensive about backing either team Sunday.

?Neither team can afford to fall too far behind in the standings,? Avello said. ?I expected the Chargers to come out playing good football ? but I don?t know what the problem is. I?m not a big fan of their coach (Norv Turner). He can?t seem to get the team motivated in the locker room. They come out unprepared for a lot of games, but they should be ready for this one.?

Although the Steelers and Chargers have struggled, they have nothing on a handful of bottom-feeders that face double-figure spreads Sunday. The Detroit Lions, coming off their first win after 19 straight losses, travel to face the Chicago Bears (-10.5). The Oakland Raiders travel to meet the underachieving Houston Texans (-10), and the St. Louis Rams meet the improving 49ers (-10). The Kansas City Chiefs are an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Giants.

?Let me tell you, there sure are a lot of bad teams in the league this year,? Avello said. ?Tampa Bay (+7 at the Washington Redskins) has trouble scoring, and the Chiefs show up for a game every now and then. The Cleveland Browns (+4.5 at home against the Bengals) don?t know how to win, and the Raiders can play well for a half but then they self-destruct. Their quarterback (JaMarcus Russell) is absolutely lost.?

Other Week 4 opening lines include: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3); Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (off/Matt Hasselbeck injury); Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-2.5); Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (off/Dolphins quarterback status); Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (off/Monday Night Football).

 

[Lumi]

NFL Spread sheet: What's going down with the Browns?

NFL Spread sheet: What's going down with the Browns?

NFL Spread sheet: What's going down with the Browns?
The Cleveland Browns are on a mission to prove that the touchdown drought the team suffered through at the end of last year was no fluke. This team might be even more inept offensively than last season?s clowns, who went the final six games of the season without an offensive touchdown.

Where do you go with a team that has the fewest points (29) in the AFC, has given up the most (95) in the NFL and has a head coach who can?t figure out who his starting quarterback is 62 days after the start of training camp? Welcome to Eric Mangini?s world.

After refusing the divulge his decision who would start at QB until the day before the first game, Mangini stayed with Brady Quinn for all of 2.5 games before benching Quinn in favor of Derek Anderson. Mangini now says it will be mid-week before he settles on the starter for Sunday?s game at home against the Bengals (Cleveland +5.5). Seems like Mangini sees Quinn as the QB of the future, but unless he plays Anderson now, that future will have a new head coach.

Bloggers are vicious. One of the kinder things written was this: ?If the Browns were horses, we?d have to shoot them.? ?Why fire Mangini?? wrote another. ?He should have to suffer like the rest of us.?

It would be a stunner for Mangini to be whacked less than a quarter of the way through his first season in Cleveland, but he has to be aware that there are a half-dozen coaches who?ve won Super Bowls on the outside looking in. Some fans are advocating for the return of Marty Schottenheimer, who actually went 44-27 leading the Browns in the 1980s and took them to the playoffs twice.

For now the Browns roam the wilderness. The 10-6 record under Romeo Crennel in 2007 seems centuries ago, and with no playmakers on either side of the ball, Cleveland games are drab and predictable. The Lions? 0-16 record last season seems well within their reach. Ironically, the only speed bump on the road to a zip-for-the-season record may come Nov. 22, when the Browns are at Detroit. If the game were today, it?s a cinch that the Lions would be favored.

Zorn operating on borrowed time?

If Mangini?s newness on the job gives him temporary immunity from firing, second-year coach Jim Zorn may not be so lucky. It was his sucky luck that Detroit picked last Sunday to end its long losing streak, and against a Washington team off to a slow start that has its head coach walking on thin ice.

Normally Zorn would dispatch a fleet of limos to Florida to bring in a lousy Buccaneers team to FedExField, but it?s hard to see how the coach could survive two losses to winless teams in eight days. Had the Rams found a way to put 10 points on the board in Washington a few weeks ago, Zorn would be polishing his resume right now. Washington gives 7 to Tampa Bay.

Favre goes up against Packers

Someone smart once said this about Brett Farve: ?He?ll throw two balls a game that can be intercepted. If you don?t intercept them, he?ll beat you. If you intercept them, you?ll beat him.?

That?s the assignment facing the Green Bay defense as it preps this week for Favre Bowl I, Sunday at Minnesota. The Vikings give 3 in this one, and based on the early goings-on, this one should go a long way toward defining the race in the NFC North.

Cincinnati, of all teams, took some of the juice out of this match with a victory over GB in Week 2, but with the Vikes at 3-0 and the Pack at 2-1, this one still has plenty of marquee value. St. Louis didn?t put up much of a fight last Sunday against GB, and Aaron Rodgers seems to finally have his feet under him after a couple of mediocre games. As for Favre, he?s about where he was expected to be ? 23rd in the league in passing yardage but still enough of a threat to win a game with his arm.

Tom was not so terrific himself

Ever-cool Tom Brady went off on the sidelines during the Patriots? victory over Atlanta on Sunday. Brady seemed particularly incensed at receivers Joey Galloway and Sam Aiken: Galloway for finding yet another way to drop a pass and Aiken for breaking off a route. (Aside to Galloway: The Pats do not have patience with receivers who do not match passes Brady throws to them. Ask for Pats Donald Hayes, Doug Gabriel and Rechee Caldwell.)

But Brady was far from perfect himself, overthrowing or underthrowing receivers several times. The Pats were saved by some tremendous catches by Randy Moss and a defense that has performed much better than expected.

NE is one of the few teams in the league without an interception, but has given up only 26 total points in the last two weeks, against the Jets and Falcons. Next up for NE is Baltimore, which may be the best team in the league. The Pats, playing at home, give 2.

Big boys are waiting for Broncos

The rubber now hits the road for the Broncos, this season?s feel-good story. Denver (3-0) has a couple of season-defining home games (Dallas this Sunday, then New England) before traveling to San Diego and Baltimore, then finishing up the 5-pack at home against Pittsburgh. If the Broncos can steal a couple of those games and make the turn at 5-3, maybe they can make things uncomfortable for the Chargers in the AFC West.

 

[Lumi]

RB Felix Jones out for Week 4

RB Felix Jones out for Week 4

RB Felix Jones out for Week 4

Running backs are dropping like flies in Dallas.

According to ESPN.com in Dallas, Cowboys running back Felix Jones will not play Sunday at Denver due to a sprained left posterior cruciate ligament. Coach Wade Phillips disclosed the injury but how much time Jones would miss was "yet to be determined." how long he'd be out.

The report said Jones had an MRI and would be re-evaluated next week. Surgery was not discussed, according to the report.

Jones is the second Cowboys running back in as many games to get hurt. In Week Two, starter Marion Barber suffered a strained left quadriceps and missed Monday's 21-7 home win over Carolina.

Both players were hurt on long runs. Barber pulled up at the end of a xx-yard run vs. the New York Giants and Jones was hurt at the end of a 40-yard jaunt.

It is possible Barber could play at Denver. If not, the Cowboys would turn to Tashard Choice, their lone healthy tailback who had 82 yards on 18 carries vs. Carolina.

Despite the injuries in their backfield, the Cowboys lead the NFL with 581 rushing yards and a staggering 6.8 yards per carry. They are three-point favorites at Denver, which is seventh in rushing defense. The total is 43.5.

 

[Lumi]

How the sportsbooks faired this weekend

How the sportsbooks faired this weekend

How the sportsbooks faired this weekend


Saturday was a banner day for bookmakers, continuing what has been a very profitable college football season.

One of the better results was the Notre Dame-Purdue game. We booked sharp money on Purdue +7.5, moved the game to 7 and then dropped to 6.5 based on that sharp action. While the sharps were on the dog, the public was on the favorite and they were on them big time. We eventually went back to 7 to try to book more action on the dog, but that just didn't happen.

Notre Dame was up 17-7 at the half and it was looking good for the Domers. But Purdue came roaring back, scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns and had a chance to win the game outright. Notre Dame?s TD with only 25 seconds left in the game gave it a 3-point victory, but Purdue backers got the money.

One of the bigger games of the day was No. 6 Cal going to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks. Again, sharp money was on the home dog but the public was on the road favorite. We opened Cal a solid 7-point favorite, but we went straight to 6 after booking sharp money on Oregon. We then went to 5.5 because we booked significant sharp money on the dog. We eventually closed at 6 because of all the money booked on the favorite. We obviously did very well with this game as Cal was never in it and the Ducks rolled their Pac-10 rival.

A game that both the sharps and public got wrong was the Miami-Virginia Tech game. We opened Miami at a pick'em and early sharp action was on the favorite. We went to -1 and then -2 early in the week, but eventually went to -3 on this game. All the money was on the Hurricanes and they were never in this game. Virginia Tech blew Miami out of the water and the result was great for us. Miami was in a lot of parlay cards for players, so we knocked out a ton of parlay money with that win.

Overall, Saturday was just a banner day for books. But Sunday, was a different story. We got hammered on Sunday, losing pretty much every significant decision. There were seven road favorites on Sunday and we booked decent action on each of them except for the Redskins, and those favorites went 5-2.

As for the two dogs that did cover, one of them was the Lions and the public actually bet this home dog. For some reason, bettors pointed to this game vs. the Redskins as the one in which the Lions would end their 19-game winless streak. We booked decent action on the Lions +6. But what also hurt us was Detroit winning the game outright. We booked significant moneyline action on the Lions in this game and bettors got paid off.

Other games that hurt bookmakers were the Giants over the Bucs. The Bucs are just an awful team right now and bettors took advantage. We opened the Giants as 7-point road favorites and booked sharp action on the Bucs. We went to -6.5 and then -6. When we went to -6, money came pouring in on the road favorite. We closed the game Giants -6.5 but that didn't stop the bleeding.

The public was all over the Giants and there was no question they were the right side. The only positive of this game was that it didn't go over the total. Sharps and the public bet this total from 44 to 46. We did well with the game staying under.

The Packers traveled to St Louis and faced a winless Rams team. We opened the Packers -6.5 and closed -6.5 (-115). Sharp money didn't get involved with this game, but the public sure did. They bet the Packers for a significant amount. The Packers got up 16-0 and never looked back. The Rams tried to remain competitive, closing the gap to six points midway through the third quarter, but the Packers scored the last two TDs of the game and easily covered the closing spread. The game also went over the closing total which didn't help our cause.

The game that was the biggest loser for us was the Bears-Seahawks game. This was a tough game to put an opening number on because of the status of starting QB Matt Hasselbeck. We opened the Bears -1 and money poured in on the Bears. Bettors were betting against the Seahawks, but more specifically against back up QB Seneca Wallace.

We went to -1.5 and then -2 early in the week on this game. As more and more money came in on the Bears, we went to -2.5 and then -2.5 (-120) but that didn't stop bettors from taking the road favorite. The Bears were down early in this game, but they fought back and scored a TD with less than two minutes to go up six points.

A game that the sharps and public pegged correctly was the Broncos/-Raiders game. This was the biggest line move in the NFL. We opened the Raiders as 2-point favorites and sharp money came in early on the Broncos. We booked sharp action on them +2 and then +1. We went directly from Raiders -1 to Broncos -1, but that didn't stop bettors from backing them. We eventually closed the game Broncos -2.5 and it obviously didn't matter.

The Broncos were the far superior team and the Raiders are just a mess. The Raiders were favored only once last year and they lost that game outright. I'm slightly embarrassed that we opened them as favorites in this game and I doubt we'll see them favored in a game the rest of the year, other than at home vs. the Chiefs, who are arguably worse than the Raiders right now.

Again, Sunday was just a brutal day for bookmakers. Not only did the big public teams like the Giants, Eagles, Packers, Saints and Bears all cover, but they all drew huge teaser money as well. We lost a fortune in teaser bets yesterday and we had a ton of teaser money tied to the Dallas Cowboys Monday. Bookmakers everywhere were praying for a Panther win.

It was by far the worst NFL Sunday in quite some time and wasn't the best way for bookmakers to end their month. But overall, September was a winning month for the books. Regardless, it's been a great football season and the betting volume has been outstanding. Unlike last year, when the recession was affecting the betting volume badly, this year our volume is up and bettors are back betting football.

 

[Lumi]

NFL Week 3 Review, Week 4 Preview

NFL Week 3 Review, Week 4 Preview

NFL Week 3 Review, Week 4 Preview

Last Sunday was another good day for pro football bettors. While the NCAA formbook went crazy on Saturday, ten NFL favorites won and covered with ***** over the weekend. Most of the dogs that covered had a lot of action, so the bettors are rolling in folding green right now.

Teams that bettors can count on are emerging in the league. Bettors are relying on Baltimore, the Giants and New Orleans to win, while they?re relying on St Louis, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and the Chiefs to take their beatings, week in and week out.

This is most clearly reflected now in **** Week 4 lines, where favorites are aggressively favored as the book tries to balance the action. Looking down through the lines, the Chiefs are a nine point underdog against the Giants at Arrowhead. A team that?s reliably good visiting a team that?s reliably bad.

1-2 Houston is maddeningly inconsistent this year but the Texans are 9.5 point favorites with ***** This is because the Oakland Raiders are in Reliant Stadium and Oakland is not a good football team.

Cincinnati at Cleveland is another of those matchups where the gap is exaggerated by how the wide the gap is between the teams. Being a six point home dog with Sports Interaction against your Ohio rival is humiliating, but the Browns have been on a steep descent since the first half against Minnesota in Week 1, while Cincinnati has people believing with two quality wins and one very unlucky loss so far this year.

Of the early lines, the team that?s least favored among the favorites with ****** is New England, which is -2.0 at home against the Ravens in Foxboro this weekend. The fact that Baltimore is the visiting team has everything to do with that.

At the start of any football handicapping discussion, home teams get three points by default and the process begins from there. In this case, that means that Baltimore would be a slight favorite against New England on a neutral field. And you have to say that line is just about correct. The Packers/Vikings game will get the most of the ink but Baltimore at New England really is the biggest game of Week 4.

Finally, it seems a bit hard on the Lions to make them double digit ?dogs at Soldier Field this weekend after their first win in nineteen games or whatever it was against Washington, but one swallow doesn?t really make a summer and the Bears are a very public team. It?s a big number, and the Bears have been a little lucky in their past two games. Maybe Jason Hanson will be the most important guy on the field on Sunday ? the Bears appear to have some sort of kicker hex going on.

 

[Lumi]

Which NFL coach will be the first to be fired?

Which NFL coach will be the first to be fired?

Which NFL coach will be the first to be fired?

It?s only three weeks into the regular season, but already the rumors have begun as to which NFL coach will be the first to be fired. Bodog.com has provided us with odds on the five most likely candidates to get the axe.

However, the coach must be fired before his team plays its 17th game and if no coach is fired before the games of Week 17, then all wagers will be no action.

Let?s break down all five:

Jim Zorn, Washington Redskins: -260

Zorn certainly should be the ?favorite? here after his team lost at Detroit Sunday, just a week after barely holding off St. Louis at home.

Sunday?s loss caused many veteran players to speak out, saying the team lacked any identity, but Zorn denied any real issue.

"In the big picture, I think things are progressing. We're getting better,? he said.

Most reports say that Zorn is safe this week, in part because he wears so many hats. He is the offensive playcaller and is heavily involved in the tutoring of QB Jason Campbell (who actually is playing well). So basically he?s the head coach, offensive coordinator and QBs coach. Sure, Redskins owner Dan Snyder doesn?t mind throwing money around, but he would probably have to hire at least two guys to fill Zorn?s spot. In addition, there?s not really a solid interim candidate on the current staff.

However, all bets are off if the Redskins lose at home this week to the winless Buccaneers - the third straight team that Washington has faced that has lost at least seven games in a row. Plus the Bucs will be starting completely inexperienced Josh Johnson for the first time at quarterback, so there?s no excusing a loss this week for Washington.

Zorn won?t be the Redskins? coach in 2010, you can mark that down. But that doesn?t mean he won?t make it through the season.

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars: +350

In my opinion, Del Rio saved his job when the Jaguars went into Houston and won Sunday. And things look good for the 1-2 Jags in the short term, as their next three opponents have a combined 1-8 record (Tennessee, Seattle and St. Louis). So certainly 3-3 at a minimum would seem realistic for Jacksonville.

The Jags were bound to have some growing pains in switching to a 3-4 defense and that unit is just 25th in the league. This franchise has much bigger problems than its coach (i.e., it can?t draw fans), so it seems unlikely a change is made during the season with Del Rio.

John Fox, Carolina Panthers: +500

I would argue that Fox is the most likely to go during the season. After Monday night?s stinker in Dallas, the Panthers are 0-3 for the first time since 1998.

Jake Delhomme has been the main problem for this team, so it?s a good thing they didn?t just give him a fat new contract (oops!). Delhomme threw two more interceptions on Monday, giving him an NFL-high seven for the season. He is the first Panthers QB ever to throw seven interceptions in the team's first three games. The Panthers turned the ball over three times and saw Delhomme sacked three times by a Dallas defense that didn?t have a takeaway or a sack in the first two games. Carolina's six second-half drives ended with four punts, an interception and a fumble.

Carolina is off this week, so Fox is probably safe for a little while longer. But he banked his future on Delhomme and that clearly wasn?t a good idea. Look for Fox to make a QB change to try and save his job.

Dick Jauron, Buffalo Bills: +500

Jauron has possibly the biggest thing working against him of anyone among these five coaches: the distraction that is Terrell Owens.

T.O. was his typical selfish self on Sunday, after not catching a pass for the first time in 186 games.

The head coach has to take the blame for the struggling offense, considering it was Jauron who fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert on the eve of the season and replaced him with Alex Van Pelt, who had never been a coordinator before.

And here?s another baffler: Jauron decided to punt on fourth-and-1 from his 29 with 7:30 to play and the Bills trailing the Saints, 17-7. That doesn?t show much faith in your offense.

Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans: +800

Put the Houston Texans (1-2) atop the list of massively disappointing teams this season, right along with the Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins and Titans. Houston was a legitimate dark-horse team in the AFC South with a loaded offense and some young studs on defense, but the Texans are 0-2 at home already. That loss to the Jets doesn?t look so bad now, but losing at home to Jacksonville Sunday was inexcusable.

This was supposed to be the year that Kubiak finally got his team to finish with a record above .500. What might save him, at least this season, is that the offense has been pretty good the past two games (Kubiak is an offensive coach).

It?s the defense that has been lousy. Houston allowed plays of 17, 10, 16 and 28 yards on third downs against the Jaguars a week after two of Titans RB Chris Johnson?s touchdowns came against the Texans on third and long. Houston is allowing the second-most yards in the NFL and is 29th in scoring defense.

The Texans should beat Oakland this weekend to calm the pressure on Kubiak, but if the team is below .500 at the Week 10 bye, the head coach could be a goner.

 

[Lumi]

Magic numbers: How to deal with key digits to NFL lines

Magic numbers: How to deal with key digits to NFL lines

Magic numbers: How to deal with key digits to NFL lines

If you?ve ever bet an NFL game and ended up with a push, chances are the line you bet involved a ?key number,? a pointspread that represents the most frequent gap in the final scores of pro football games.

Games fall on these key numbers ? such as 3, 7 and 10 ? more often than you might imagine. The profit margin for gamblers and sportsbooks for any given week of NFL season often hinge on these spreads.

If you think key numbers are no big deal, you?re wrong. com research shows that more than 30 percent of NFL games over the past five seasons have fallen on the prominent key numbers 3, 7, or 10.

Of the 1,666 NFL contests since the 2004-?05 season, 263 games, or 15.7 percent, fell on a 3-point difference. This was followed by 151 games at 7 points (9 percent) and 109 games with a 10-point gap (6.5 percent). Last week, five of the 16 NFL games (31 percent) fell on one of these three key numbers.

Other key numbers include 4, 6 and 14, which combined have accounted for nearly 16 percent of the outcomes during this five-year span.

The data suggests you can easily be affected if you bet a team at -6.5 or +7.5 ? or take bets at these numbers.

?It?s definitely one sport that is unique, in the sense that there is more attention paid to key numbers than any other,?

Professional handicappers such as *** recognize that not all pointspreads are created equal. When considering a game involving a key number, Merill looks for the implied value that often exists when a key number pops up.

To illustrate: *** points out that there?s little difference between 4.5- and 5.5-point spreads in the NFL, because so few games fall on 5 (44 in the past five seasons, 2.6 percent). However, the difference between 6.5 and 7 is much more significant.

?That?s a 5-percent difference right there,? *** said. ?There?s always going to be line value, it just depends on a lot of different aspects.?

Although some bettors might be tempted to buy points ? for instance, laying -120 to take 10.5 points instead of 10 ? **** doesn?t recommend this practice.

?You?re just giving away way too much juice,? said ****, who instead advises bettors to shop several books to find the spread they are looking for.

Key numbers present oddsmakers with their own set of challenges. Once the spread is set for a game, they often are hesitant to move off a key number for fear of taking the worst of it from sharp bettors, or getting ?middled? when the game falls on a number that allowed bettors to take action on both sides (for instance, a game falls on 7 in which bets were taken at -6.5 and +7.5).

Some oddsmakers also are hesitant to allow gamblers to buy on or off key numbers, based on the notion that doing so is giving away too much value.

Michael isn?t one of them. His sportsbook allows bettors to buy up to 3 points on any NFL game, and he said he won?t hesitate to move the spread off a key number if the action suggests it?s the correct move.

?We like to try and have decisions on games, rather than pushes,? he said. ?So I don?t mind going to 6.5 or 7.5 on a game, if we feel we have proper reasoning for making the move.?

Las Vegas oddsmaker Pete Korner uses a similar line of thinking when making NFL opening-line recommendations to his clients. Because bettors have a natural tendency to lean toward favorites, he often suggests starting at a higher number and adjusting accordingly.

This is a particularly common strategy for the spreads on parlay cards, a staple of public and tourist bettors. For example, if you are putting $20 on a four-team parlay off the card and pick a game that falls on a key number, you can expect to be taxed on the chalk. You?re likely to be laying -7.5 instead of -6.5 and, if this game falls on 7, many parlay cards meet their demise.

?Bookmakers just want to prevent that black Sunday, when all the favorites come in,? Korner said. ?Given the natural tendency for bettors to take the favorite on a parlay card, adding the hook on top of the key number seems like the way to go.

?It just makes sense to stay ahead of the players by fading the favorites this way.?

 

[Lumi]

Upon further review in the NFL

Upon further review in the NFL

Upon further review in the NFL

The difference between a playoff team and one who misses can often be a very thin line. Luck or getting the right breaks can make all the difference. 2008 division champions Tennessee, Carolina and Miami have yet to post a win this season (1-8 ATS) and for all intents and purposes, are very unlikely to make the playoffs. So what happened?

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has affected the Titans in a different way than anticipated. Tennessee hasn?t dramatically been affected by run defense, however with no pass rush up the middle against opposing quarterbacks, the Titans are 29th against the pass. For the most part, Tennessee was better than the unbeaten Jets on Sunday, but two special team?s fumbles deep in their own territory gift-wrapped two touchdowns for New York.

Carolina can?t generate a consistent running game (21st), which leaves Jake Delhomme left to win the game, which he does not appear capable of doing. The Panthers felt they had to be quicker on defense and went lighter. Instead of making more plays, opposing teams are pushing them around and Carolina is 29th against the rush.

Miami is returning back to earth after miracle revival from a year ago, following a 1-15 season. The Dolphins still have satisfactory running game, but has been the case, teams decided to no longer respect the Dolphins passing game. Ted Ginn Jr. has shown why most were shocked when Miami drafted him so high. He?s a poor route runner, who lacks the ability to create separation despite tremendous straight-line speed. The Fins averaging a mere 5.0 yards per pass (29th). Maybe Chad Henne can try and stretch the field. The Dolphins have had a difficult schedule to boot, yet it doesn?t appear to lighten up with four AFC East games and New Orleans on the next five outings.

San Francisco isn?t going anywhere and looks very capable of covering a number of spreads. They create a dilemma for oddsmakers also, since they lack explosiveness on offense to warrant exaggerated figures and the defense is more team-oriented than exceptional.

There were fewer reasons to bet on Indianapolis on Sunday in Arizona than to tune in ?Lost?. Virtually every perspective was against the Colts, expect for one element, Peyton Manning. Even if you don?t like all his commercials, the guy is a player. He had that look in his eyes, and if you have wagered against Indy when he does, just mark it as a loss. Talent-wise this is not a great Colts team, yet they have a chance to be great because they have Manning.

Any wonder why the Vikings never gave up on Brett Favre. Here?s a dollar to your thousand that two guys named Tarvais and Sage never even attempted the throw Favre made.

Denver would be 3-0 SU and ATS right now if they had Jay Cutler as their quarterback, but guaranteed Chicago wouldn?t be 2-1 if they didn?t have the former Bronco. Greg Olson is above average tight end, but Cutler is throwing to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, who are arguably the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL. Along with an active defensive line, Cutler is the reason for Bears winning record.

Study the numbers

For underdog seekers, it was not a good week in the NFL, with favorites 11-5 ATS. Home underdogs performed poorly for the third straight week at 2-5 ATS and are 5-11 ATS on the season. Take a look pro teams that have won as road or home underdogs, they are 8-3 ATS in the early going the next week.

The favorites were crushed in college football last week, covering 20 of 50 games played. Double digit home favorites in particular were very beatable at 7-14 against the number. In a statistical oddity, the totals have been evenly split each of the last three weeks on the college board.

Line movers were 2-7 ATS in NFL sides and totals in which the number moved 2.5 or more points. The wagering public also was nailed on college sides with 4-10 ATS mark on contests that moved three points or more. However, good fortune continued on college totals with 15-7 week, taking season total record to 54-23, 70.1 percent.

The Game Estimator is cleaning up in college football, 13-3 on the sides and 7-4 on the total last week in highlighted games. That makes the Estimator 34-17 ATS, 66.6 percent for the season on sides and 17-10, 62.9 percent on totals. I?ve mentioned the Line Tracker, does 10-2 sound pretty good? Highlighted contests hit 83.3 percent last week and are 19-9 on sides and totals combined on the college gridiron.

Good Luck this week!