CFB INFO WEEK 5

[Lumi]

LVSC Rankings - Week 5

Week 4 of the college football season saw four schools in the Top 10 of the Associated Press poll get knocked off, including Penn State, which was upset by Iowa 21-10 in Happy Valley. The Hawkeyes outscored the Nittany Lions 16-0 in the final 15 minutes en route to the road victory as 9 1/2-point underdogs.
Iowa?s road upset made a believer in the AP writers, who recently pushed the school all the way up to the 13th position in this week?s rankings. Considering they weren?t even on the map in previous weeks, it goes to show you how meaningless the AP poll is, especially in terms of the point-spread.

The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants had Iowa listed as the 15th best school last week according to their power rankings. After last Saturday?s conference win, LVSC Chief Operating Officer Kenny White and his staff moved Kirk Ferentz?s team up to No. 11 and dropped Penn State five spots to No. 12.

California (6) swore that it wasn?t looking ahead to this week?s showdown against Southern California (1) last Saturday but that proved to be the case. The Golden Bears were blasted 42-3 on the road to Oregon (15), yet they only dropped one spot in the LVSC rankings.

The Big 10 and Pac 10 both have three schools listed in this week?s LVSC Top 30.

Mississippi (10) and Miami, Fl. (24) were the two other schools that were upset this past weekend and both fell four places in this week?s LVSC rankings.

Houston (29) was another school that was put on the AP map two weeks ago when it upset fifth-ranked Oklahoma State 45-35 in Stillwater. The Cougars were ranked 21st in the AP poll and jumped up to the 13th position after defeating another Big 12 school last Saturday in Texas Tech, 29-28.

Even though head coach Kevin Sumlin and his squad is getting noticed, gamblers should still be a little weary of this Conference USA team. Houston did jump from 38 to 29 in this week?s LVSC rankings but three straight road games is going to be a true test, especially a trip to Mississippi State on Oct. 10. The Bulldogs did come up short in a 30-26 home loss to LSU (14) last Saturday, but fortunately Miss State has another to make some noise against Georgia Tech (28) this weekend.

The Big 12 still leads the charge with seven schools in the Top 30, followed just behind by the SEC with six. The ACC has four and the Big East (2) continues to have the lowest number of schools listed in the Top 30 amongst the BCS conferences.

In the below rankings, we bolded six schools (NR) that aren?t ranked in the AP poll yet they?re respected by the oddsmakers. Notre Dame (17), Clemson (20), Texas Tech (25), South Florida (25), South Carolina (34) and Missouri (30) make up the group. To give some credit to the writers who vote in the AP, they do have the Tigers, Gamecocks, Bulls and Irish on the brink, yet no love for the Red Raiders and Tigers.

While these six can be classified as underrated in the LVSC rankings, who?s overrated? Along with the aformentioned squad from Houston, it appears the oddsmakers aren?t thinking highly of Les Miles and LSU at this point nor do they think Cincinnati (22) is ready to threaten just yet. And, even though Virginia Tech beat the Hurricanes in the rain, it still remains in the lower tier of this week?s Top 30.

Below is a complete breakdown of this week?s LVSC rankings.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants Rankings - Week 5 Rankings
Rank Team Rating Last Week AP Rankings
1 Florida 122.6 1 1
2 Texas 119.3 2 2
3 Southern Cal 117.4 3 7
4 Alabama 116.0 4 3
5 Ohio State 113.5 9 9
6 Oklahoma 111.5 7 8
6 California 111.5 5 24
8 Boise State 110.7 10 5
9 Texas Christian 110.5 11 11
10 Mississippi 110.3 6 21
11 Iowa 109.8 15 13
12 Penn State 109.6 7 15
13 Nebraska 109.5 13 23
14 LSU 108.6 12 4
15 Oregon 108.5 23 16
16 Oklahoma State 108.2 17 14
17 Notre Dame 107.9 13 NR
18 Brigham Young 107.7 15 20
19 Georgia 107.6 18 18
20 Clemson 107.3 19 NR
21 Virginia Tech 107.0 24 6
22 Cincinnati 106.9 22 10
23 Kansas 106.8 21 18
24 Miami 106.7 20 17
25 Texas Tech 105.5 25 NR
25 South Florida 105.5 26 NR
27 South Carolina 105.4 NR (34) NR
28 Georgia Tech 105.2 27 25
29 Houston 105.0 NR (38) 12
30 Missouri 104.7 30 NR
Dropped out of Top 30: North Carolina (28), Pittsburgh (29) & Auburn (30)
Next 10: Auburn, Stanford, North Carolina, Utah, UCLA, Michigan, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Arizona & Michigan State.

 

[Lumi]

Time to Cash in on Conference Play

Time to Cash in on Conference Play

Time to Cash in on Conference Play

With the first weekend of October arriving, the leaves are or will be turning colors very shortly, offering a wonderful assortment of shades on the color spectrum. This time of year can also add a collection of ?Benjamin Franklin?s? for the sports bettor prepared to rake in profits with the correct knowledge.

With the start of the last quarter of the year, this signifies college football going head first into conference action. Certainly, enough teams will bring in a sacrificial lamb for homecoming or between extremely challenging league games, however for the most part, it?s down and dirty with all your rivals.

This is really the coolest aspect of college football, playing within the conference. Unless there are coaching changes, most schools know what to expect from their opponents, facing them year after year and many of the best and most colorful moments the sport has to offer revolve around conference clashes. Teams might wear a special uniform in hopes of firing up the home underdog to pull the upset after losing to an opposing team for a number of years. Or gamesmanship, like Georgia?s coach Mark Richt used against Florida a couple of seasons ago, having his team run on the field after first touchdown of the game and taking penalty, only to have the favor returned in a different manner the following season by Urban Meyer, who used his three remaining time outs with under 90 seconds to play to prolong the Bulldogs 49-10 butt-whipping.

In college football, trends tend to mean more, as teams have confidence or lack thereof playing different universities with the conference. The SEC has the most head-scratching angles that seemingly come true year after year, and every conference has some of their own that tickle the fancy of those wagering on sports.

To create a realistic look at how teams perform in conference contests, went back to the year the ?Blair Witch Project? was released (1999) and broke down this theme into different elements.

The first was the best and worst teams against the spread in league action. Boise State backers absolutely love the beginning of WAC play, since it?s a great time to stop worrying about health care issues and instead make and save money for those later years. The Broncos are 51-25 ATS, a delicious 67.1 percent in conference action, which includes 28-9 against the number as home chalk.

Oregon State has filled the coffers of many a supporter in Pac-10 play with 52-32 spread record, with these eager Beavers 21-10 ATS as Corvallis favorites. In the great state of Texas, a couple lesser known teams have cleaned up nicely, with TCU 44-31-1 ATS (including 26-9 ATS as home faves), mostly as favorites. The Rice Owls are spooking 48-30-1 ATS in conference play, including a FBS best 16-2-1 ATS as home underdogs.

Of course all the news is not joyful, as other teams fumble, bumble and stumble in league action. Indiana and covering Big Ten spreads is as bad a match as Lamar Odom and Khloe Kardashian, with the Hoosiers a losing 32-49 ATS. Washington?s USC upset doesn?t change the fact of over a decade of misery at 29-54-2 ATS. Other loathsome schools include Baylor at 28-50-2 ATS, Mississippi State from the SEC at 34-47-1 ATS and the always popular Fresno State, who falls apart faster than Lindsey Lohan in WAC action with 29-49-2 against the spread record.

If you compare the best winners and losers as home favorites, the list is definitely in favor of the latter. Big time programs like Alabama (9-19 ATS) and LSU (13-28 ATS) are diabolical home favorites, based on winning reputations and evil oddsmakers preying on backers appetites for playing them. The aforementioned Huskies of Washington are 3-17-1 and fellow Pac-10 partner Arizona is 4-13 ATS as home favorites. In the betting capital of the United States, Las Vegas, they have the Rebels, who have been dreadful for a long time, sporting 2-12 ATS home favorite record. North Carolina?s blue uniforms may look eye-pleasing, but a 4-13 ATS mark when they wear them as ACC faves is plain ugly.

Thank goodness for schools like Toledo at 22-11 ATS and Hawaii at 19-11 ATS, to carry the torch for quality home favorites.

Every sports bettor from the time they laid five bucks on their very first wager has been told to find the home underdog, giving them two chances to win. The resurgence of Mississippi?s football program means less chances of improving on 13-5 spread record as home underdogs at The Grove. A couple of under the wire schools thrive when catching points on campus, UAB is 11-4-2 ATS and equally sleepy Louisiana Tech is 8-3 versus the oddsmaker. If ever a university had the right nickname for this study assignment, it is Northern Illinois, whose Huskies are 8-2 ATS as home dogs. Minnesota is 6-12 ATS; however that might change with new on-campus digs when in underdog role. Baylor, well it?s going to take awhile for coach Art Briles to change mindset of team that if 9-24-1 ATS as Big 12 home team catching.

It takes the courage of a MMA fighter to want to consistently back a college football road underdog, no matter how points you receive. So many factors are working against you to win. The emotion of the home crowd, the other team being more talented as the linemaker suggests by the spread he releases and trying to avoid feeling sorry for yourselves when things don?t go your way. T. Boone Pickens may be a panjandrum who can afford to build lots of things with his money, but he can?t buy his way out of beloved Cowboys of Oklahoma State having 10-20 ATS road dog record. Connecticut has been very respectable since joining the Big East in football in 2004, but these Huskies have been collared to the porch with 3-12 ATS mark as the road pooch. Houston?s high scoring offense doesn?t play as well on the road as dogs with 7-14 ATS record. The Hoosiers of Indiana need more than a pep talk to improve 13-25 ATS road record in white uniforms. The mighty university from Monroe, LA is not cowardly, with 17-5 ATS pronouncement as visiting underdogs.

There are a few cross-over road dogs that can make cash. Texas A&M may bury Aggies fans with 8-18 ATS record as Big 12 road pups, nevertheless, they are 10-5-2 ATS as home dogs. San Jose State doesn?t gather much attention, especially with 10-20 road figure against the spread, however they are super Spartans as road favorites showing nine covers in 11 tries.

Top ranked Florida is on 7-0 ATS run as a road favorite and they will be on the hunt for more this season. The rest of college football isn?t so lucky and talented. UCLA has been about as overrated as they come in this spot with 4-16 ATS mark. Wake Forest, UTEP and Nebraska are worse than airline baggage fees at 3-8 ATS giving points to home-standing schools. The state of Idaho is a great exporter of potatoes; but the Vandals are stealing profits as road faves, failing to cover 75 percent of the time in a dozen attempts. N.C. State should avoid wearing favorite cap away from Raleigh as 3-12 ATS record proves.

Always make the time to be prepared for conference football success, because capitalism works best with honest hard work and no shortcuts to profits.

 

[Lumi]

Look Aheads and Let Downs

Look Aheads and Let Downs

Look Aheads and Let Downs


If you had doubts about college football squads getting sucked into a trap, last week should have eliminated them.

The Spartans fell to Wisconsin after a near miss in South Bend to Notre Dame. Washington showed they?re not quite ready for primetime in a defeat against the Cardinal. The Golden Bears went into hibernation in Oregon. Even the Seminoles weren?t immune to a hangover last Saturday with a loss at home to South Florida.

Luckily for us, there are some more trap games for us to play on this Saturday.

Hawkeyes Down?

A lot of folks made it out that the Nittany Lions were out for blood against Iowa last Saturday night. Sure, the Hawkeyes killed PSU?s chances for a national title last season but these weren?t the same teams. Regardless of the men in the uniforms, the result was the same with Iowa getting the win in Happy Valley as a 9 ?-point road pup, 21-10. The Hawkeyes used their defense to take a hold of this soggy game. They forced Daryll Clark into three interceptions and Evan Royster to fumble.

The betting shops are expecting the Hawkeyes to run roughshod over Arkansas State this weekend against Arkansas State by making them 21-point home favorites.

The Red Wolves have done a real good job of being the fall guy for teams this season. They were owned by Nebraska 38-9 on Sept. 12 and knocked over by Troy 30-27 last Saturday.

What makes Arkansas State an attractive play is how the Hawkeyes play after making Joe Paterno their bitch. Iowa is 4-1 straight up following its last five wins over the Nittany Lions, but 1-4 against the spread.

No Bull this weekend?

South Florida looked like it could be dead in the water as it went up to Tallahassee last weekend to play the Seminoles without Matt Grothe under center. The Bulls didn?t need him as B.J. Daniels pulled in 341 total yards and threw for two touchdowns in their 17-7 win over Florida State.

Now the Bulls head up to the Carrier Dome to play Syracuse as 6 ?-point road favorites.

This is a perfect trap spot for USF after you think about it for a little bit. They?re coming off of a win that Jim Leavitt desperately wanted to give his team legitimacy in its home state. And next week, the Bulls play host to the Bearcats in what is an early battle for Big East supremacy.

The Orange are also on a nice roll for their standards, having won two straight games. Greg Paulus has fared well in those matches by completing 71 percent of his passes for 660 yards and four touchdowns. Don?t be surprised if this game winds up as a nail biter.

Sleeping Tigers?

If you?re going off of talent alone, then the Tigers should have had no problems in dispatching Mississippi State. Yet Louisiana State needed a goal line stand to hold off the upstart Bulldogs as a 12 ?-point road favorite, 30-26. You could say that Mississippi State let the Tigers stick around by giving up the ball four times in the first half that turned into 10 points. No matter the excuses, LSU is still undefeated.

The close call last Saturday no doubt had an effect at the sportsbooks as LSU is listed as a three-point road underdog against Georgia.

This is a difficult for the Bayou Bengals as Georgia has much better talent than what Mississippi State. However, Joe Cox is still learning the ropes on how to be a starting quarterback in the SEC.

The history of this series shows that the Bulldogs have won and covered in the last three meetings. But there is also the added spectre of Tim Tebow and the Gators the following week in Baton Rogue. The Tigers are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five matches that preceded facing Florida ? the lone loss coming against Georgia.

 

[Lumi]

Looking for Value

Looking for Value

Looking for Value
September 29, 2009

By the time each college football season reaches the end of September, it's time to put the preview magazines away. Performance now takes the place of perception, and through the years we've tried to find ways to identify which teams are performing better, or performing worse, than those preseason expectations.

Longtime readers know that we have a couple of ongoing measuring devices that we use to try to identify such "value spots" in each week's card. Our most intriguing, and effective, calculation over the years is called our "AFS" (Away From Spread) number. Simply, we seek to identify just how much teams are overachieving, or underachieving, vs. the number, hopefully uncovering some future "soft spots" on the line with certain teams.

As its name suggests, "AFS" measures performance away from the pointspread. For example, if a 7-point favorite wins a game by 9 points, it will earn the pointspread win, but in reality the performance fairly matched the assessment of the oddsmakers, who were close in their evaluation of the team in its assignment. Such teams are usually performing as expected, and if the oddsmakers are on the mark, there probably won't be much pointspread value either way in that team's upcoming games.

Many squads, however, develop patterns rather suddenly, either overachieving or underachieving vs. the number. If a 7-point favorite wins a game by 28 points, it can be assumed that the oddsmakers and wagering public have been off in their assessment of that team, just as if the same 7-point favorite loses a game by 20 points. Although one sometimes-aberrational result can distort a team's "AFS" number, history has shown us that a trailing 2-game average might provide a better clue if the oddsmakers and general public are indeed clued into the affected team. So, each week, our Systems Spotlight feature highlights all of the 2-game plus and minus "AFS" numbers of 10 points or more each week.

As always, we recommend using some discretion when reviewing those numbers, which are just a raw compilation of the most-recent final margins against the pointspread. As mentioned, one spectacular or horrific performance can distort that number, so proceed with some caution. But there's no question that the running two-week "AFS" numbers will uncover some interesting up-to-date pointspread insights each week.

And this week is no exception, which is why we are encouraging the 2009 preview magazines be put away for the moment. That's because the most-recent 2-game "AFS" numbers present an almost inside-out picture from preseason prognosticators who forecast some of the recent best "AFS" performers as laggards, and some of the recent worst provide as national contenders. Indeed, four of the top teams on the plus side of the current "AFS" calculation (Indiana, Idaho, Washington State, and Mississippi State) were lightly regarded entering the campaign. Meanwhile, a slew of supposed BCS contenders, such as Illinois, Southern Cal, California, and Penn State, are near the top of the "minus" teams.

We've seen "AFS" numbers turn on a moment's notice in the past, which might figure as the oddsmakers and betting public make adjustments to a team's performance pattern. Nonetheless, we have always felt that consulting with the weekly "AFS" numbers is a worthwhile handicapping exercise. Following are the best and worst "AFS" performers for their last two pointspread decisions.

PLUS (+) TEAMS

Oregon 23.35
Indiana 18.50
Idaho 18.25
Washington State 18.00
Ohio State 16.25
Mississippi State 16.00
Nebraska 14.75
Houston 14.25
Iowa State 14.25
Boise State 14.00
Central Michigan 13.00
Iowa 13.00
Marshall 12.00
Virginia Tech 11.00
Hawaii 10.75
South Florida 10.25

MINUS (-) TEAMS

Illinois -25.25
Southern Cal 23.25
Cal 22.00
Tulane 21.50
Memphis 17.00
BYU 16.25
Akron 15.50
Maryland 15.00
UAB 14.75
Bowling Green 14.25
UL-Lafayette 13.25
Penn State 12.50
Arkansas 11.75
Kentucky 11.75
Buffalo 11.00
La tech 10.50
Nevada 10.50
New Mexico 10.00

 

[joefrog91]

Good info as always. Thank you.