Playoff Preview
For good reason, the Colorado Rockies are the team we fear the most in the senior circuit. Since manager Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle on May 29, the Rocks have posted by far the best record in the NL (indeed, only the Yankees are comparable). Although not hitting the postseason in quite the same white-hot fashion as it did two years ago, Colorado is still built for another deep playoff run, especially with the bullpen less of a question mark these days with Huston Street a more-trustworthy closing option than erratic Manny Corpas two years ago. The heart of the lineup (Brad Hawpe, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton) is playoff tested from '07, although we still have some questions about a starting staff with Ubaldo Jimenez its most reliable option. Still, the Rocks played so well in the postseason two years ago, and have been so consistently excellent the past four months, that we rate them to NL team to beat...even though, as the wild card, they won't have home-field edge throughout the postseason (not that the same scenario bothered them much in '07).
We have liked almost all of the moves made by the Philadelphia Phillies in attempts to defend their World Series crown; the trade deadline acquisition of Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians was particularly shrewd, and signing Pedro Martinez in August was a worthwhile gamble. The Phils, however, might not have thought they'd be toying with the notion of using Martinez as their playoff closer, given Brad Lidge's ongoing failures (and 11 blown saves). Indeed, Lidge's downturn is by far the biggest difference from a year ago, when he was flawless out of the pen the entire season and playoffs, never once blowing a save. With plenty of base stealers, power hitters, and good situational bats like Chase Utley's, the Phils will score enough runs to win. Unfortunately, their ongoing bullpen woes might mean they'll also give up enough runs to lose, and with the staff wobbling a bit the past month (Lee has not been as dominating as he was the first month after his acquisition), we're not sure the Phils get back to the Series.
The St. Louis Cardinals also made the most of the trade deadline when heisting Matt Holliday out of Oakland to provide lineup protection for Albert Pujols, but Holliday provided even more than that for Tony La Russa. Still, we have to wonder if playoff foes won't simply work carefully around the "big two" and dare the likes of Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker to beat them; the lineup could be somewhat immobilized if opponents pitch around Pujols and Holliday. Although with a pair of Cy Young candidates in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the top of the playoff rotation, and vet John Smoltz still a good bet to pitch a solid six innings or so, the Redbirds should be in every game. We're not sure that we trust the Cards' fate to closer Ryan Franklin, but with Carpenter and Wainwright the Redbirds at least have a big-game pitching edge on the other NL postseason entries.
The Los Angeles Dodgers did just enough to hang on to their NL West lead, but the team has played barely a tick over .500 since early June. Credit Joe Torre for mixing and matching a set of varied relievers as the Blue posted some solid pitching stats, but how much can Torre depend upon starters such as youngster Clayton Kershaw and journeyman Randy Wolf in the postseason? Of the Dodger bats, the one to watch could be quiet but efficient 1B James Loney, who hit only 13 homers but nonetheless drove in over 90 runs (shades of Tommy Davis and Wes Parker in the '60s), but there are too many free-swingers in this lineup. A matchup vs. the smart-pitching Cardinals in the first round could prove especially difficult for the Blue.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
We're not convinced the postseason is simply going to be a New York Yankees party. Although the Bronx Bombers might just bludgeon opponents into submission, keep in mind that outside of the aging Andy Pettitte, no Yankee starting pitchers have ever accomplished much in the postseason (certainly not CC Sabathia in Cleveland and Milwaukee, and remember A.J. Burnett was out for the 2003 Series while with Florida). Despite their dominance in the second half of the season, the Yanks have ongoing defensive issues with SS Derek Jeter's range now limited; indeed, 1B Mark Teixeira owns their best infield glove. And while the lineup bludgeoned mediocre pitching, can it do the same vs. quality playoff staffs?
A better bet might be the Boston Red Sox, who have tasted more postseason success lately than the Yankees, anyway. With their notorious ability to draw walks, and collection of established clutch bats (Mike Lowell, Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Big Papi) up and down the lineup, the Bosox are built for postseason success. We're not quite as certain about the staff (which Dice K shows up?), although Josh Beckett knows what October pitching is all about. Moreover, the Bosox have had the playoff whammy on their first-round foe, the Angels, since the '80s. This is one team that can get to the Series on guile alone, and once there we believe would probably outclass any NL rep.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim can't be thrilled about drawing the Red Sox in the opening round, not after meekly surrendering in the first round to the Bosox in '04, '07, and '08, not to mention that ALCS nightmare way back in '86. One difference between this Halo squad and recent postseason failures is OF Bobby Abreu, who works counts better than anyone in the lineup. Fundamentally, however, recent Halo editions have been different than the '02 Series winners that made hay with intelligent at bats; Vlady Guerrero and Co. have been consistently victimized by their impatience in recent playoffs vs. Boston. Having said that, we might like the Halos vs. any other AL foe save the Bosox, especially with pitching depth further improved with the late-season addition of Scott Kazmir from Tampa Bay. But Boston has proven such a hurdle for the Halos that we can't trust them getting out of the first round.
The AL Central is coming down to a Tuesday playoff at the Metrodome between the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins; our money will be on Minnesota advancing. In case it's the Tigers, we expect the Yanks to avenge their '06 ALDS loss, because his Detroit version doesn't have much starting pitching depth beyond Justin Verlander and perhaps Edwin Jackson, and there are too many strikeout machines like Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge in the lineup. This Detroit edition also doesn't have the consistent hitters and frontline pitchers to vault from a mediocre regular season to the Series, like the '06 Cards or '87 Twins. Minnesota went furiously to the whip down the stretch and will recall memories of the '07 Rockies if it can get past the Tigers. And even with 1B Justin Morneau and 3B Joe Crede out, with their remaining situational hitters and closer Joe Nathan, they'll pose a more difficult matchup for the Yanks. Don't count these guys out!
For good reason, the Colorado Rockies are the team we fear the most in the senior circuit. Since manager Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle on May 29, the Rocks have posted by far the best record in the NL (indeed, only the Yankees are comparable). Although not hitting the postseason in quite the same white-hot fashion as it did two years ago, Colorado is still built for another deep playoff run, especially with the bullpen less of a question mark these days with Huston Street a more-trustworthy closing option than erratic Manny Corpas two years ago. The heart of the lineup (Brad Hawpe, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton) is playoff tested from '07, although we still have some questions about a starting staff with Ubaldo Jimenez its most reliable option. Still, the Rocks played so well in the postseason two years ago, and have been so consistently excellent the past four months, that we rate them to NL team to beat...even though, as the wild card, they won't have home-field edge throughout the postseason (not that the same scenario bothered them much in '07).
We have liked almost all of the moves made by the Philadelphia Phillies in attempts to defend their World Series crown; the trade deadline acquisition of Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians was particularly shrewd, and signing Pedro Martinez in August was a worthwhile gamble. The Phils, however, might not have thought they'd be toying with the notion of using Martinez as their playoff closer, given Brad Lidge's ongoing failures (and 11 blown saves). Indeed, Lidge's downturn is by far the biggest difference from a year ago, when he was flawless out of the pen the entire season and playoffs, never once blowing a save. With plenty of base stealers, power hitters, and good situational bats like Chase Utley's, the Phils will score enough runs to win. Unfortunately, their ongoing bullpen woes might mean they'll also give up enough runs to lose, and with the staff wobbling a bit the past month (Lee has not been as dominating as he was the first month after his acquisition), we're not sure the Phils get back to the Series.
The St. Louis Cardinals also made the most of the trade deadline when heisting Matt Holliday out of Oakland to provide lineup protection for Albert Pujols, but Holliday provided even more than that for Tony La Russa. Still, we have to wonder if playoff foes won't simply work carefully around the "big two" and dare the likes of Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker to beat them; the lineup could be somewhat immobilized if opponents pitch around Pujols and Holliday. Although with a pair of Cy Young candidates in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the top of the playoff rotation, and vet John Smoltz still a good bet to pitch a solid six innings or so, the Redbirds should be in every game. We're not sure that we trust the Cards' fate to closer Ryan Franklin, but with Carpenter and Wainwright the Redbirds at least have a big-game pitching edge on the other NL postseason entries.
The Los Angeles Dodgers did just enough to hang on to their NL West lead, but the team has played barely a tick over .500 since early June. Credit Joe Torre for mixing and matching a set of varied relievers as the Blue posted some solid pitching stats, but how much can Torre depend upon starters such as youngster Clayton Kershaw and journeyman Randy Wolf in the postseason? Of the Dodger bats, the one to watch could be quiet but efficient 1B James Loney, who hit only 13 homers but nonetheless drove in over 90 runs (shades of Tommy Davis and Wes Parker in the '60s), but there are too many free-swingers in this lineup. A matchup vs. the smart-pitching Cardinals in the first round could prove especially difficult for the Blue.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
We're not convinced the postseason is simply going to be a New York Yankees party. Although the Bronx Bombers might just bludgeon opponents into submission, keep in mind that outside of the aging Andy Pettitte, no Yankee starting pitchers have ever accomplished much in the postseason (certainly not CC Sabathia in Cleveland and Milwaukee, and remember A.J. Burnett was out for the 2003 Series while with Florida). Despite their dominance in the second half of the season, the Yanks have ongoing defensive issues with SS Derek Jeter's range now limited; indeed, 1B Mark Teixeira owns their best infield glove. And while the lineup bludgeoned mediocre pitching, can it do the same vs. quality playoff staffs?
A better bet might be the Boston Red Sox, who have tasted more postseason success lately than the Yankees, anyway. With their notorious ability to draw walks, and collection of established clutch bats (Mike Lowell, Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Big Papi) up and down the lineup, the Bosox are built for postseason success. We're not quite as certain about the staff (which Dice K shows up?), although Josh Beckett knows what October pitching is all about. Moreover, the Bosox have had the playoff whammy on their first-round foe, the Angels, since the '80s. This is one team that can get to the Series on guile alone, and once there we believe would probably outclass any NL rep.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim can't be thrilled about drawing the Red Sox in the opening round, not after meekly surrendering in the first round to the Bosox in '04, '07, and '08, not to mention that ALCS nightmare way back in '86. One difference between this Halo squad and recent postseason failures is OF Bobby Abreu, who works counts better than anyone in the lineup. Fundamentally, however, recent Halo editions have been different than the '02 Series winners that made hay with intelligent at bats; Vlady Guerrero and Co. have been consistently victimized by their impatience in recent playoffs vs. Boston. Having said that, we might like the Halos vs. any other AL foe save the Bosox, especially with pitching depth further improved with the late-season addition of Scott Kazmir from Tampa Bay. But Boston has proven such a hurdle for the Halos that we can't trust them getting out of the first round.
The AL Central is coming down to a Tuesday playoff at the Metrodome between the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins; our money will be on Minnesota advancing. In case it's the Tigers, we expect the Yanks to avenge their '06 ALDS loss, because his Detroit version doesn't have much starting pitching depth beyond Justin Verlander and perhaps Edwin Jackson, and there are too many strikeout machines like Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge in the lineup. This Detroit edition also doesn't have the consistent hitters and frontline pitchers to vault from a mediocre regular season to the Series, like the '06 Cards or '87 Twins. Minnesota went furiously to the whip down the stretch and will recall memories of the '07 Rockies if it can get past the Tigers. And even with 1B Justin Morneau and 3B Joe Crede out, with their remaining situational hitters and closer Joe Nathan, they'll pose a more difficult matchup for the Yanks. Don't count these guys out!
