Middle Tennessee State at Troy

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Middle Tennessee State at Troy


The Sun Belt Conference takes center stage Tuesday night when defending champion Troy (2-2, 1-0) hosts Middle Tennessee State (3-1, 1-0) at the Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium.

Troy opened a 5.5-point favorite and has moved to ?6.5 since.

Weather

Warm temperatures in the low 70s are expected at kickoff under cloudy skies with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. South winds around 5 mph.

Tale of the tape

Both teams are tied at 1-0 in the conference standings, one win behind league leader Louisiana Monroe (2-0).

After opening the 2009 season with back-to-back losses at Bowling Green and at Florida, the Trojans have bounced back with a pair of wins, including a 30-27 upset at Arkansas State. They?ve also put up over 500 yards of offense in each of the last two games.

Troy has won the conference title three straight years, going 6-1 in the Sun Belt each season.

The Blue Raiders have won and covered each of their last three games and are now 3-1 straight up and against the spread on the season following a 23-point loss at Clemson to start the campaign.

MTSU is off to its best start since going 5-0 in 2001 when it earned a share of the Sun Belt title with North Texas. The Blue Raiders have a plus-five turnover margin, and have forced 13 turnovers.

Who?s who

Troy QB Levi Brown is the leading contender for Sun Belt Player of the Year honors. The senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,097 yards, five touchdowns and completed 63.7 percent of his passes. Brown is a big quarterback with a big arm.

Brown?s main target is junior college transfer Tebiarus Gill. He leads Troy with 23 receptions and two touchdowns has been an immediate impact player.

Middle Tennessee QB Dwight Dasher has thrown for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns with five interceptions. The junior has also rushed for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns.

The Trojans have six sacks and 26 quarterback hurries in four games. Opponents have just nine quarterback hurries.

No offense taken

The Blue Raiders picked up offensive coordinator Tony Frankiln this season after his brief tenure with Auburn last year.

Franklin?s spread offense helped power Troy to conference titles during his stay with the Trojans in 2006 and 2007.

Coaches speak

Troy coach Larry Blakeney realizes the importance of tonight?s game. "It's a conference game from a national showcase. It will be fun to watch if you've got nothing to do with either team."

MTSU coach Rick Stockstill likes the way his team has played. "We've played four emotion games. I wish we had played better at Clemson, but I'm real proud of the way we've played the last three weeks."

The history book says

Troy has won and covered each of the last three meetings in this series.

The Trojans are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on weekdays during the regular season since joining the Sun Belt in 2004

The Blue Raiders are 4-7 SU and 4-5 ATS on weekdays during the regular season including 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS of late.
 

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Trends - Middle Tennessee St. at Troy

Trends - Middle Tennessee St. at Troy

Trends - Middle Tennessee St. at Troy

ATS Trends

Middle Tennessee St.

Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Blue Raiders are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
Blue Raiders are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Blue Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Blue Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Blue Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Blue Raiders are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Blue Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.


Troy

Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Trojans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. win.
Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Trojans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.


OU Trends

Middle Tennessee St.

Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 6-0 in Blue Raiders last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 games in October.
Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in Blue Raiders last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Blue Raiders last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Blue Raiders last 6 games on grass.
Over is 5-1 in Blue Raiders last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Blue Raiders last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.


Troy

Under is 8-0-1 in Trojans last 9 games following a bye week.
Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 home games.
Under is 6-1-1 in Trojans last 8 games in October.
Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 games following a ATS win.
Under is 10-4 in Trojans last 14 conference games.


Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 

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DUNKLE INDEX NCAA 06 OCT 09

DUNKLE INDEX NCAA 06 OCT 09

Middle Tennessee State at Troy

The Blue Raiders look to build on their 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 games in October. Middle Tennessee State is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Troy favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 301-302: Middle Tennessee State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 81.702; Troy 82.665
Dunkel Line: Troy by 1; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+7 1/2); Under
 

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Troy favored to continue Sun Belt dominance

Troy favored to continue Sun Belt dominance

Troy favored to continue Sun Belt dominance

In the Sun Belt Conference, Troy was the expected to dominate, picked by every known preseason magazine in the country to do so. Their opening game 31-14 pasting to an ordinary MAC Bowling Green team, spoke of overconfidence and self indulgence. That was followed by being crushed by the top team in the land Florida 56-6 and a picture that looked so rosy in August, was starting to fade like flowers uncovered from an overnight frost.

Troy (2-2 SU&ATS) has gotten back on track with wins over a UAB and a 30-27 clutch effort at Arkansas State. The Trojans can make their slow start be a forgotten memory with a win against a very good SBC bunch from Middle Tennessee State.

The Blue Raiders (3-1 ATS) are off to their best start in eight seasons at 3-1 and could be the team to beat in the Sun Belt with a win at Troy. Quarterback Dwight Dasher has run the Mid. Tenn. State offense expertly in the first four games, averaging 28.5 points per game and over 400 yards total offense. This will be the Blue Raiders third consecutive road game after knocking off North Texas 37-21 as five point favorites and they are 13-5 ATS of a win.

Senior quarterback Levi Brown has offense flowing again for Troy, averaging 28.5 points the last two games. The defensive front is back to pressuring the opposing quarterback with six sacks and 26 quarterback hurries in four games. The Trojans have been turnover ?prone thus far, with 10 miscues already, however are 7-0 ATS after committing three or more turnovers.

Bookmaker.com opened Troy as four-point favorites and the public has taken the most recognizable name from the Sun Belt and made them to six-point choice. It is understandable since the Trojans have either won or tied for the last four SBC crowns and if offense starts to click, they are 21-6 ATS when they score 28 or more points.

Mid. Tenn. State is a legitimate club; they won at Maryland 32-31 as more than a touchdown underdog and mauled Memphis 31-14. If Troy continues to be in a giving mood, the Blue Raiders will be ready; having forced 13 turnovers this season and they are 12-3 ATS in the month of October.

This Sun Belt matchup is known as the ?World?s Largest Toga Party? and will be viewable on ESPN2 starting at 8 Eastern. Keep in mind the underdog is 1-6 ATS
 

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Middle Tennessee (3-1) at Troy (2-2)

Middle Tennessee (3-1) at Troy (2-2)

Middle Tennessee (3-1) at Troy (2-2)






DATE & TIME: Tuesday, October 6th, 8:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium (30,000) -- Troy, Alabama. Television: ESPN2. Home Record: MT 1-0, Troy 1-0. Away Record: MT 2-1, Troy 1-2. Neutral Record: MT 0-0, Troy 0-0. Conference Record: MT 1-0, Troy 1-0. Series Record: Middle Tennessee leads, 11-5.

GAME NOTES: The Battle for The Palladium will take place Tuesday evening when the Troy Trojans host the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in a Sun Belt Conference battle at Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium.

Off to their best start since opening the 2001 season with five consecutive wins, the Blue Raiders will try to grab their fourth victory of the year Tuesday evening. Middle Tennessee opened the campaign with a 37-14 setback to Clemson, but has reeled off three victories since, including a 37-21 decision over North Texas on September 26th.

As for the Trojans, they began the year with two straight losses, but the team has rebounded with back-to-back decisions over UAB (27-14) and Arkansas State (30-27). Troy has dominated league play over the past three years, winning three consecutive Sun Belt titles, although last season's was the first outright championship.

The Blue Raiders currently lead the all-time series by an 11-5 margin. However, the Trojans have won the last three matchups, including a 31-17 decision last year.

The Blue Raiders scored 30 first half points and never looked back, as they defeated North Texas by a 16-point margin. Dwight Dasher did most of the work for MT, as the quarterback threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-43 passing. The signal caller also led the ground game with 75 yards and two more scores, while D.D. Kyles added 62 yards on 18 totes. Dasher has been Mr. Everything for the Blue Raiders this year, as the quarterback has thrown for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns against five interceptions. On top of his passing abilities, Dasher has also been the main source of production for the rushing attack, coming into this matchup with a team-high 251 yards and three rushing touchdowns. Kyles is the top tailback, but he has just 132 yards on a mere 3.7 yards per tote. As a whole the Blue Raiders are averaging an impressive 407.2 total ypg, and that has translated into a solid 28.5 ppg.

Middle Tennessee's defensive unit struggled last time out, surrendering 21 points on a whopping 470 total yards. MT surrendered 313 passing yards in the win, but the defense collected three interceptions and five overall turnovers. The unit did not grab a sack in the matchup, but Middle Tennessee limited North Texas to just 4-of-13 on third downs and just 2-of-4 in the red zone. This defense has lived off the big play early in the year, racking up 13 takeaways (six interceptions and seven fumbles) in the first four games. What has plagued this team thus far, has been its inability to stop the run, as opponents are churning out 152.5 ypg on the ground. Out of the 11 touchdowns surrendered, seven have come via the run. Overall, this defense is being punished for 374.0 total yards and that has led to 25.8 ppg by the opposition.

A 17-point second quarter was the main reason the Trojans walked away with a three-point victory over Arkansas State in their last matchup. Levi Brown was outstanding in the win, as the signal caller threw for 355 yards and two scores on 33-of-46 passing. Tebiarus Gill was very busy, as the wideout hauled in 10 passes for 85 yards and one touchdown. The ground game was not very formidable, but the team still finished with 134 yards on 37 carries. DuJuan Harris did most of the damage, rushing for 48 yards and one score. On the year Harris has a team-best 161 yards and three scores, but the rushing game as a whole has labored for 96.5 ypg on just 3.1 yards per attempt. Fortunately the team can rely on the arm of Brown, who has thrown for 1,097 yards on 63.7 percent efficiency. However, the quarterback has only thrown five touchdowns against four interceptions and that ratio will definitely need to improve as the season progresses. Overall Troy comes into this weekend averaging 375.2 total yards per matchup, but that has led to just 19.2 ppg.

The Trojans were not at their best defensively against Arkansas State, but the team did enough to earn the victory. Troy allowed 235 yards through the air, but the defense bottled up the Red Wolves on the ground, holding them to just 70 yards on 2.8 yards per attempt. Troy allowed ASU to score on all four of its red zone chances, but the defense was able to feed off three turnovers, and also limited the Red Wolves to just 2-of-9 on third down attempts. Four games into the season and it is evident that Troy has endured some problems defending the pass, as opponents are torching the Trojans for 263.8 ypg. Out of the 15 touchdowns allowed, nine have come via the pass. Overall the Trojans head into this matchup allowing 410.5 total ypg, and that has led to an equally poor 32.0 ppg.

The Trojans have been unable to stop the pass on the year, and that could be a problem with Dasher and company coming for the Palladium. While the Blue Raiders should make this an interesting matchup, look for the Trojans to hold on for a close win at home.

Predicted Outcome: Troy 34, Middle Tennessee 31
 
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