At the Gate - Thursday
The rains never came at Belmont Park on Wednesday, just one more day of many that the weathermen got it wrong.
When I started handicapping Wednesday?s card, there was a 60% chance of rain. When I finished it several hours later, the chance of rain had increased to 80%.
The forecast for wind gusts of more than 40 mph had me thinking the card might even be canceled.
When I checked the weather yesterday morning, the chance of rain had decreased to 20%.
By post time of the opener at Belmont Park, the sun was shining.
You would think with all of this sophisticated equipment that is used, like 3D Doppler Radar, and maps they can write on with their finger, that they might get the weather right occasionally.
I?m not a fan of rain, but I did handicap all of Wednesday?s races for a sloppy track and off the turf.
I?ll be honest, had I run into Sam Champion or Al Roker this morning, I probably would have punched them in the face.
The forecast for Elmont, NY for today is sunny. If it happens to rain, and the races are taken off the turf, Al Roker would be best served by going into hiding.
My ?two-a-days? start tomorrow with the opening of Keeneland, which runs a 17-day meeting with plenty of stakes action.
I?ll be providing my full card reports for Keeneland and Belmont Park right up to the Breeders? Cup.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
#1 Pardon / #1a Siren Serenade 2/1
#4 Cruisin'nthebridle 3/1
#6 Diza 5/1
#5 She's a Ketch 8/1
Analysis: The Shug entry looks live and I am guessing we are back on the turf today as the sun is supposed to come out. That will likely leave #1a Silent Serenade in the race. The filly was beaten a head for the top spot last out by Whisked Away, who came back to beat Alw-1 company in her next start on Sept. 30. Two back our top pick ran second to Miss Catalyst, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes and then run second in the Riskaverse on Sept. 3 at the Spa. She handled ground with some give to it two back. What a pedigree on this gal, by Unbridled's Song out of the Grade 1 winner Versailles Treaty ($1.27 million), who did her best work on dirt.
#4 Cruisin'nthebridle made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot going nine furlongs at the Spa. Three have come out of that race and two of them graduated in their next starts. This filly was a $230K purchase and is a half to seven winners including a couple of stakes winners, top earner Royal Haven ($891K).
#6 Diza is a half to four stakes winners including Dynaforce ($1.1 million) and Cetewayo ($1.2 million).
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (4:45 ET)
#4 Ea 2/1
#1 Retriever 6/1
#6 Even Raise 5/2
#2 Brother Nick 5/1
Analysis: #4 Ea checked in third last out as his stablemate Girolamo got the job done to win at this level. Our top pick finished up well despite catching a main track that was more favorable to inside speed. Two back the gelding was beaten just a half-length for the top spot with Ramon dropping his stick at the 1/8 pole. The gelding was closer to the pace in that effort but looks as if he will need to see some pace in front of him here and should get it.
#1 Retriever returns to the main track here after failing to be a threat on the turf in a sixth place finish. Two back he checked in third in his first try at today's condition and caught a muddy surface. Three back he earned a career top beating Alw-1 foes at the Spa. Two came out of that race to win next out. Figures to bounce back with the surface switch and the Badgett barn is 30% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #5 She?s a Ketch 8/1
R2: #7 I?ve Got the Fever 8/1
R3: #9 Suzee Sunrise 15/1
R4: #7 Ticondero 12/1
R4: #6 Precipice Trail 8/1
R5: #2 Navedano 10/1
R6: #8 Farawaycat 12/1
Good luck today!
The rains never came at Belmont Park on Wednesday, just one more day of many that the weathermen got it wrong.
When I started handicapping Wednesday?s card, there was a 60% chance of rain. When I finished it several hours later, the chance of rain had increased to 80%.
The forecast for wind gusts of more than 40 mph had me thinking the card might even be canceled.
When I checked the weather yesterday morning, the chance of rain had decreased to 20%.
By post time of the opener at Belmont Park, the sun was shining.
You would think with all of this sophisticated equipment that is used, like 3D Doppler Radar, and maps they can write on with their finger, that they might get the weather right occasionally.
I?m not a fan of rain, but I did handicap all of Wednesday?s races for a sloppy track and off the turf.
I?ll be honest, had I run into Sam Champion or Al Roker this morning, I probably would have punched them in the face.
The forecast for Elmont, NY for today is sunny. If it happens to rain, and the races are taken off the turf, Al Roker would be best served by going into hiding.
My ?two-a-days? start tomorrow with the opening of Keeneland, which runs a 17-day meeting with plenty of stakes action.
I?ll be providing my full card reports for Keeneland and Belmont Park right up to the Breeders? Cup.
Here is today's opening race from Belmont Park to get our day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
#1 Pardon / #1a Siren Serenade 2/1
#4 Cruisin'nthebridle 3/1
#6 Diza 5/1
#5 She's a Ketch 8/1
Analysis: The Shug entry looks live and I am guessing we are back on the turf today as the sun is supposed to come out. That will likely leave #1a Silent Serenade in the race. The filly was beaten a head for the top spot last out by Whisked Away, who came back to beat Alw-1 company in her next start on Sept. 30. Two back our top pick ran second to Miss Catalyst, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes and then run second in the Riskaverse on Sept. 3 at the Spa. She handled ground with some give to it two back. What a pedigree on this gal, by Unbridled's Song out of the Grade 1 winner Versailles Treaty ($1.27 million), who did her best work on dirt.
#4 Cruisin'nthebridle made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot going nine furlongs at the Spa. Three have come out of that race and two of them graduated in their next starts. This filly was a $230K purchase and is a half to seven winners including a couple of stakes winners, top earner Royal Haven ($891K).
#6 Diza is a half to four stakes winners including Dynaforce ($1.1 million) and Cetewayo ($1.2 million).
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (4:45 ET)
#4 Ea 2/1
#1 Retriever 6/1
#6 Even Raise 5/2
#2 Brother Nick 5/1
Analysis: #4 Ea checked in third last out as his stablemate Girolamo got the job done to win at this level. Our top pick finished up well despite catching a main track that was more favorable to inside speed. Two back the gelding was beaten just a half-length for the top spot with Ramon dropping his stick at the 1/8 pole. The gelding was closer to the pace in that effort but looks as if he will need to see some pace in front of him here and should get it.
#1 Retriever returns to the main track here after failing to be a threat on the turf in a sixth place finish. Two back he checked in third in his first try at today's condition and caught a muddy surface. Three back he earned a career top beating Alw-1 foes at the Spa. Two came out of that race to win next out. Figures to bounce back with the surface switch and the Badgett barn is 30% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R1: #5 She?s a Ketch 8/1
R2: #7 I?ve Got the Fever 8/1
R3: #9 Suzee Sunrise 15/1
R4: #7 Ticondero 12/1
R4: #6 Precipice Trail 8/1
R5: #2 Navedano 10/1
R6: #8 Farawaycat 12/1
Good luck today!
