WEEK 5 NFL INFO

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Opening line report: Bettors relying on familar faces

Although this NFL season has produced some unlikely cash cows, bettors have been able to rely on a couple of old stand-bys to cover the spread for their bread.

Case in point: Brothers Peyton and Eli Manning have been as efficient as ever in bringing home the cash for their backers. Reigning MVP Peyton Manning continues carving up defenses for the finesse-oriented Colts, while Eli Manning is still growing as the leader of the gritty Giants.

Each has had challenges to overcome. Peyton Manning is playing for a new coach and moving on without Marvin Harrison, his longtime favorite target, while Eli is breaking in a core of young receivers to make up for the loss of Plaxico Burress and has had to deal with injuries in the running game.

No matter. The Colts and Giants are a combined 8-0 overall and 6-1-1 against the number for gamblers after each covered Sunday. The Colts beat the Seattle Seahawks 34-17 as a 10-point home chalk and the road-tested Giants posted a 27-16 win in Kansas City to get the money as a 9-point chalk.

The Mannings are a combined 46-25-1 ATS over their past 72 regular-season games for a winning clip of 63.8 percent. Bettors have taken notice, and sportsbooks have paid the price.

?People bet them because they are a known quantity,? said Terry Cox, race and sports director at the Reno-based Peppermill Resort Casino. ?Some of them don?t even pay attention to the pointspread. They just say, ?I want the Colts. They are laying points on the road? I don?t care. They are laying double-figures at home? I don?t care. I want the Giants.??

So far, ignorance of the spread has led to betting bliss for those who back the Mannings, but a penchant for putting your money behind the NFL?s best comes with its own type of luxury tax.

The Giants are opening as 16-point home favorite against the hapless Oakland Raiders (1-3, 2-2 ATS) in Week 5 despite the fact that its franchise quarterback might be a little gimpy after suffering a heel injury late in Sunday?s win over the Chiefs.

?The Raiders have such a bad offense now, that I have a hard time seeing how they are going to score,? Cox said. ?They are also a big go-against team. The public jumps on them every week.?

Peyton Manning and friends are listed as a 3.5-point favorite at the still-winless, still-desperate Tennessee Titans (0-4, 1-3 ATS).

Cox noted that backing the Titans, who had the league?s best record last year at 13-3, based on the simple notion that they are due for a win, has been a popular but disastrous strategy. They have failed to cover since their Week 1 13-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

?People have been burned with the Titans, who have been in this ?must-win? situation for three weeks,? Cox said. ?They have this idea that they can?t possibly lose another game ? then they do. Watch, this will be the week when they finally back off that idea, and the Titans will tromp on the Colts.?

Other high-profile teams laying substantial numbers on the road in Week 5 include the Steelers, who are 10.5-point favorites at the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings, who open as 10-point favorites when they visit the St. Louis Rams.

Cox used Tennessee?s woes as a prime example of the tendency of gamblers to fade or back an NFL team at just the wrong time, which helps the bottom line of his and other sportsbooks worldwide.

Bettors will be tested against this theory in several of the Week 5 tilts, many of which include clubs that have exceeded pre-season predictions.

For instance, the undefeated Denver Broncos (4-0, 4-0 ATS) won over many skeptics after their defense shut down the Dallas Cowboys in the second half of Sunday?s 17-10 win.

This week will present a similar circumstance for both clubs. The Broncos will again be offered as a home underdog at +3.5 points against the New England Patriots (3-1, 2-2 ATS), who covered the number in their 27-21 win over the Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are 9-point road chalks at Kansas City (0-4, 0-4 ATS).

?I think people are getting the idea that the Broncos are a better team than the might have thought, and the Cowboys are not the elite team that many expected at the beginning of the season,? Cox said.

Another team that has surpassed expectations, and drawn the interest of bettors along the way, is the San Francisco 49ers (3-1, 4-0 ATS). The success of the Mike Singletary-led club, which clobbered the Rams 35-0 Sunday, has been a particular boon to Nevada casinos because of its regional proximity, Cox noted.

The oddsmaker said the perpetual woes of the Raiders and 49ers have hurt the bottom line of Nevada sportsbooks for years, and the rejuvenation of the 49ers, who are 2.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, has created some welcome interest in the Bay Area team.

?We?re surprised by the 49ers, and happily so,? Cox said. ?It helps our handle, and we?re glad to have those fans back.?

Other Week 5 matchups include: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5); Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-6); Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-3.5); Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5); New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+1.5); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (no line/Philadelphia quarterback status); Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (no line/Seattle quarterback status.)

 

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Flood of NFL favorites has books begging for balance

Flood of NFL favorites has books begging for balance

Flood of NFL favorites has books begging for balance

If you prefer backing favorites or fading cellar dwellers, your NFL betting strategy is working.

It goes without saying, that a lot of public-adored favorites covering the number in pro football is the last thing a bookmaker wants. But recently, they have been nearly blinded by the chalk swirling around the sportsbook. The favorite is 21-9 against the spread in the past two weeks.

Last weekend provided one of the worst clumps of NFL results for the books in recent memory. On Sunday, five popular favorites took the money, with the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers covering the spread.

To make matters worse, the league?s most frequently bet-against teams, the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions, failed to sniff the money. Perhaps the only saving grace came from the Cleveland Browns, who covered the 6-point spread against the Cincinnati Bengals in their 23-20 overtime loss.

But the Browns covering hardly provided a consolation for the books. The topper was the Monday night Brett Favre Bowl in which the favored Minnesota Vikings covered the 4-point spread in their 30-23 win over the Green Bay Packers. This one was like a three-punch combination to the oddsmakers? gut. The chalk covered, the total went over and both sides covered the teaser odds. Most parlays and teasers hinging on this game were headed to the cashier?s cage.

In search of an accurate assessment of the damage recent NFL results have delivered to the books, found that the lasting impact of the pain largely depends on both the location and the clientele of the sportsbooks.

For example, Terry Cox of the Peppermill Resort Casino runs a locals-friendly sportsbook on the outskirts of downtown Reno. He said watching a slew of public NFL bettors experience a winning doesn?t hurt business.

?The public is doing well. We?ve had to cash our share of tickets in the first four weeks, but that?s not necessarily a bad thing,? Cox said. ?With the economy down, and everything else down, sports betting is up. The way we see it is, let them go ahead and think it?s easy.?

While Cox can count on return business from novice and recreational bettors to help off-set a bad week, others aren?t so fortunate.

In the heart of the Las Vegas Strip, Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage, watched in agony as throes of tourists wearing Favre?s No. 4 jerseys and sipping cheap beers celebrated wildly as the Vikings polished off a public bettor?s dream weekend.

?It hurts the book more so at our properties than at one that has locals as part of the clientele,? Stoneback said. ?We get people who come in for the weekend, then they fly home and it?s a whole new crowd. They take their money home with them, and are not here next week to give it back to us.?

Stoneback acknowledged that suffering an occasional losing weekend is simply part of the variation that comes with making a living in the gambling business. That doesn?t mean he has to be happy about it.

?In the long run, we are going to have weeks in which we just get crushed, and there?s no avoiding that,? he said. ?Anybody who does any sort of gambling, whether it?s sports, horses, cards or dice ? if they lose all the time, they are not going to do it anymore.

?If we beat them every single week, there would be a lot less people betting. Obviously, it?s our goal to beat them every week, but we know that it can?t happen.?

In the meantime, the spreads for the favorites will grow ? six games this weekend opened with lines of at least a touchdown, and three opened at double figures ? and oddsmakers will hope that the NFL pendulum swings back in their favor.

When it does, oddsmakers such as Stoneback will be handing the cash to the wise guys instead of the tourists, but they will be content to make the transition.

?Most of the time, when the professionals have a winning day, we have a winning day,? Stoneback said. ?When the public loses, we usually end up on the right side.?

 

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NFL Week 5 Wagering Opportunities

NFL Week 5 Wagering Opportunities

Of the various boggle the brain teams, Cincinnati has to be right at the top, as they are one beyond belief tipped pass away from being 4-0 this season. The Bengals play their third straight AFC North conflict and could wrestle first place away from Baltimore with the upset. What is wrong with the Cowboys that a trip to Kansas City wouldn?t fix? Atlanta and San Francisco tries to prove which team truly is on the rise in 2009. After a sluggish start, Arizona is back from a bye looking at Houston team that is similar to their club from a year ago. It?s another big test for unbeaten Denver with New England in the Mile High City.

Cincinnati at Baltimore 1:00E CBS

Who would?ve thought this just over a month ago??Cincinnati (2-2 ATS, 3-1 Ov) and Baltimore (3-1 ATS, 3-1 Ov) will be battling for the AFC North lead when they clash in Week 5. The Bengals have been one of the league?s pleasant surprises, boasting a 3-1 record, same as the Ravens. In fact, take away the tipped ball miracle play in Week 1 and Cincy is unbeaten right now with wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh on its resume. Here, they?ll be looking to up their record in Baltimore to 4-3 under Marvin Lewis and win their third ATS win in four tries vs. a division foe. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS as a favorite under John Harbaugh and 6-2 ATS versus AFC North opponents, but are off the humbling setback in New England. Favorites in this series are on a 14-5 SU and ATS run.

Keys to the Game-

The Bengals have to catch some Flac, as in sack Joe Flacco to limit the Baltimore passing game. Keep DE Antwan Odom?s motor on high and have him keep after Flacco. Against the run, gap control is mandatory or the Ravens will run the ball down Cincy?s throat for four quarters. Cincinnati 10-1-1 ATS after playing Cleveland and it will be Carson Palmer?s job all day to read S Ed Reed?s keys and change plays off of his actions.

In Ravens loss to New England, too often various members of the secondary took bad angles, which led to poor tackling. This can?t happen against Chad Ochocinco and the dangerous Chris Henry, who is nightmare matchup for any team?s third cornerback. Baltimore has stopped Cincinnati?s straight ahead running game for years, but Cedric Benson has the speed to get wide and Brian Leonard is solid as one-cut-and-go runs. The Ravens have NFL?s top run defense, however Bengals aren?t pushovers anymore at 4.5 yards per carry. The Birds are 12-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.


Dallas at Kansas City 1:00E FOX

After losing at Denver, Dallas (2-2 SU&ATS) continues its two week road trip through the AFC West with a trip to Kansas City. The Cowboys record as a road favorite dropped to 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS under Wade Phillips by losing to the Broncos, but more importantly, they lost another game in the NFC East standings. They?ll enjoy next Sunday off, important since Dallas is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games. Kansas City (0-4 SU&ATS) is playing its second straight as host to an NFC East club, after coming up short 27-16 against the Giants. With that spread loss, the Chiefs fell to 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at home vs. NFC opponents. The Cowboys have only visited Arrowhead Stadium once in the last 18 years (?98) and the home team is 4-0 SU & 2-0-2 ATS in the last four games of this series.

Keys to the Game-

Without Terrell Owens, teams no longer fear the Dallas deep passing attack. Roy Williams (who might not play) is a poor route runner as are many of the Cowboys receivers. Tony Romo isn?t always the most accurate passer and needs help from pass catchers to get more open and hang onto the ball. Dallas is 4-15 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and defensively needs to shutdown the Chiefs on first down, which sets up bring the house on third down. The Dallas pass rush has been anemic, but with K.C. 29th in pass offense, great time for the Boys to get happy.

Dallas is third in rushing yards at 163.7 yards per game, which would leave Kansas City with fewer possessions if they let them play keep away. Stop the Cowboys and look to discourage them since they allow 4.7 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are not making any big plays and have to in all three phases to pull the upset. A couple of big passing plays, an interception or fumble recovery and a long punt return gives the Chiefs a chance since they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Lastly, score touchdowns in the red zone and concede field goals in the same area, which would different this season.


Atlanta at San Francisco 4:05E FOX

When Atlanta (2-1 ATS, 2-1Un) left the NFC West Division in 2002, it meant making fewer trips to San Francisco. That was welcomed news since the Falcons have struggled when visiting the Bay Area, and in fact, are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 adventures when visiting the 49ers. That one win came in the most recent trip though, in 2004, and now looks to make it two in row. Atlanta comes in at 2-1 and off its bye week, but the next seven games will make or break its chances for a second straight playoff appearance. San Francisco (4-0 ATS, 3-1Un) is 3-1 after shutting out St. Louis and very well could be 4-0. The 49ers seem to be restoring some long lost home field advantage, having gone 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS under Mike Singletary. Atlanta is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1999.

Keys to the Game-

Atlanta has done a poor job against the run (25th) and has to shore up this area up against San Francisco who prefers to establish a ground game. Defensive tackles Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson must be more stout in the A and B gaps and at least won?t have to fret about Frank Gore, who is out. The Falcons are 14-4 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in consecutive games. Atlanta brought in Tony Gonzalez to open up the passing game, but it shouldn?t be at the expense of Roddy White, who?s averaging only eight yards a catch. White is deep threat and home run hitter, use him.

San Francisco only manufactured 228 yards of offense in scoring 35 points last week against the Rams, thanks to three defensive scores. The lack of offensive punch is due to supposedly strong offensive line looking and acting worse than Jon Gosselin. This contingent needs to come together and start exploding off the ball and Birds D-Line is custom made to so. The defense is sixth overall and would be wise to take away Gonzalez and make Matt Ryan go after their excellent corners. The Niners are 6-0 ATS at Candlestick Park after covering the number.


Houston at Arizona 4:15E CBS

Two high-powered passing attacks, Houston & Arizona, will go head-to-head in what is expected to be a game featuring plenty of offensive fireworks. That should showcase the talents of the Cardinals? Larry Fitzgerald and the Texans? Andre Johnson. Both are big, strong receivers with excellent hands. The Cards have tended to come out of bye weeks not so chipper and are 11-3 UNDER in post-bye week games since 1994. The defending NFC champion Cardinals (1-2 ATS&UNDER) took last week off to find answers for their slow 1-2 start. The good news is they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams passing for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. Houston (2-2 ATS) has averaged 7.7 YPA in its 2-2 start, and comes in on a 7-1 ATS surge as an underdog. The Texans are 5-9 ATS when visiting NFC foes. This will be just the second time these teams have met, and the first time in Arizona.

Keys to the Game ?

Houston is 29th against the run and if they can?t stop Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells (3.2 YPC), they have no business in talking about playoff possibilities. The Texans have been blitzing a lot, yet have only five sacks to show for their efforts. Kurt Warner is a top five quarterbacks with protection, however in the bottom 25 percent when pressured. Houston is 4-14 ATS as road underdog off a conquest and they will add one more to the right side of the ledger unless they get Steve Slaton started (Texans 3.2 YPC). Run screens, quicker hitting plays, whatever it takes, since Matt Schaub?s effectiveness shrinks without running game.
Knock, knock. Who?s there? The 2009 season! Arizona players and coaches said they were unaffected by Super Bowl loss, yet based on actions; they appear to be less than truthful. Start with protecting Kurt Warner. Yes, he?s going to hang on the ball too long, this isn?t news to those wearing Cardinal red. Give him time to make the throws. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is calling the plays, hey a coach, your receivers are REALLY good, throw them the ball. Arizona is 16-5 ATS in home games versus mediocre defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards a play, punish them. On defense, the Redbirds can stop the run, they have to protect against the big pass play.



New England at Denver 4:15E CBS

There will be plenty of hype surrounding the New England-Denver showdown, for more than the coaching matchup, as Bill Belichick takes on his former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. Surprisingly, it is McDaniels that is receiving more accolades, with his team atop the AFC West. With a 4-0 SU & ATS record and the NFL?s best defense at 6.5 points per game allowed, the Broncos continue a treacherous eight-game stretch as three-point home dogs to the 3-1 Patriots. Belichick?s club is seemingly regaining its footing as QB Tom Brady becomes more comfortable. New England (2-2 ATS) boasts a 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS record as road chalk of less than a touchdown in the Belichick era. The last seven games these teams have played in Denver have averaged 48 points per contest, while going OVER the total six times.

Keys to the Game-

It must be the altitude, because New England is 3-10 ATS in Denver. The loss of Fred Taylor means Laurence Maroney better get his game together quickly, since the Patriots need offensive balance against the No. 3 pass defense. The Pats showed great improvement last week in the red zone, converting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, that must continue. This had to be a cerebral week of practice for the New England offense, since McDaniel is the one that set it up. The Brady bunch has to use false keys and give new looks to the same plays to confuse Denver D. New England is 7-1 ATS off consecutive covers.

The Broncos defense is the most important aspect of quick start and they have the secondary that can allow Denver to blitz Brady, much in the fashion the Jets did in holding the Patriots to nine points. New England shows up at eighth in total defense, but they are surrendering 4.5 yards per carry. The Denver?s offensive line is good enough to tie up Pats D-Line, and a set of ordinary linebackers will get caught in the scrum. See if the Pats can really contain the run. The Broncos can reverse trend of 4-12 ATS record off a home game by making big plays like last week. Look for Brandon Marshall and get the ball to Eddie Royal short to restore his confidence.

 

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Belichick-Brady wall too steep for Broncos

Belichick-Brady wall too steep for Broncos

Belichick-Brady wall too steep for Broncos
As far as coach-quarterback combinations go, it's tough to beat Bill Belichick and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. If you bet the NFL, you want those two in your corner more often than not.

Brady is 23-1 straight up in his past 24 regular-season starts. Belichick is 24-9 against the spread in his past 33 games as a road favorite.

Who can top that?

The Josh McDaniels-Kyle Orton combination is off to a good start. The Denver Broncos are 4-0 straight up and against the spread with McDaniels and Orton calling the shots.

There are countless ways to handicap football. The simplest approach is to first look at the coach and quarterback, and in this case determine Belichick and Brady are far more reliable than McDaniels and Orton.

New England is at Denver on Sunday, when we're supposed to find out if the unbeaten Broncos are legitimate. The truth is the Broncos will be tough to beat all season because of their defense.

McDaniels obviously learned something about coaching while an offensive assistant to Belichick, and Orton is riding a lucky streak as the league's only regular starter not to throw an interception.

But the most important ingredient to Denver's success has been the 3-4 defense that coordinator Mike Nolan puts on the field. The addition of veteran safety Brian Dawkins as the leader was a shrewd move that got overlooked in the offseason.

Dawkins and the Denver defense have allowed 26 points through four games, and the Broncos shut out Tony Romo after Dallas scored 10 first-quarter points last week.

But the Cowboys lack competent coaching, Romo is erratic partly because he has mediocre receivers, and the Dallas defense ranks 26th in the league.

The Patriots have none of those problems. Belichick is not Wade Phillips, Brady can throw to Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and the New England defense ranks seventh in the league. When the Broncos blitz Brady, he can burn them. And Belichick's defense can rattle Orton.

I've been on Denver three times this season, so I'm a believer. But now the Broncos are running into the Belichick-Brady wall.

Belichick will school his pupil, and Brady will make the key plays as New England narrowly covers as a 3-point favorite. The line has dropped from 31/2, so lay the field goal.

Four more plays for Week 5 (Home team in CAPS):

? CHIEFS (+8) over Cowboys: Romo is running hot and cold, so Dallas might not coast in this spot. According to VegasInsider.com, road teams that faced 0-4 opponents the past five seasons went 1-5 ATS. According to Playbook.com, Kansas City is 17-2 ATS as a home underdog of four or more points versus an opponent with at least one loss. The Cowboys are fragile favorites.

? PANTHERS (-31/2) over Redskins: This is a major coaching mismatch. Carolina's John Fox had a bye week to prep. Washington will be saying bye to Jim Zorn soon. The Panthers need to get the ball to their playmakers, receiver Steve Smith and running back DeAngelo Williams, and let the Redskins unravel.

? Falcons (+21/2) over 49ERS: Hard-nosed coach Mike Singletary has San Francisco on a roll. But the 49ers' offense is somewhat limited without running back Frank Gore. Atlanta was 5-0 straight up off a loss last season, and quarterback Matt Ryan has the weapons to put more points on the board.

? TITANS (+4) over Colts: Tennessee got crushed last week in a game that made no sense. I've been burned twice on the Titans and twice by going against the Colts. This play makes little sense, but several sharp handicappers are on the Titans. So I'll take one more shot with Jeff Fisher, who is 7-0 in his past seven as a home 'dog and 5-1 ATS in his past six against Indianapolis.

 

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NFL Line Movement

NFL Line Movement

NFL Line Movement

All of the big favorites had movements in their lines from the opening number, with only the Steelers-Lions game remaining as is at -10.5. The Eagles were the only one of those big numbers to go higher settling at -14.5 right now, with the Vikings and Giants games dropping.

All of the numbers around the key number of 3 have moved. Broncos were brought down to +3 at home. The Colts are up to -4 from -3.5, while Panthers are -3.5 flat after being -3 -120.

Through four weeks this season, not one game has landed on 3 while the favored game line was at 2.5, 3, or 3.5 at any juncture. In 2005 and 2006 there were more games that landed on the number than usual causing most books to all use money lines on the number before moving it whole to a flat number.

In the cycle of pro football lines landing on 3, those two years stand alone. Even if getting sided a few times a year when flip-flopping on and off of 3, the math shows the juice on equal sides bet at different numbers makes up for times the game on 3 does land 3.

Beyond the math, the additional volume a book could take by not having a ?closed sign? on the game by laying -2.5 flat instead of -3 even, or -3 flat instead of -3 -120 on each side trumps the math and increases win.

The only book in Las Vegas that doesn?t use money, dealing all flat lines, on all football games is the South Point sportsbook operations throughout the city run by veteran bookmaker Bert Osborne.

 

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Total Talk - Week 5

Total Talk - Week 5

Total Talk - Week 5

The scoreboard operator had his work cutout last weekend as the ?over? posted a solid 9-5 (64%) mark on the 14-game card. The two nationally televised games on Sunday and Monday both went ?over? as well. After five weeks, the ?over? owns a 33-29 (53%). Once again, four teams (Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego) are on bye in Week 5.



Looking at the entire slate, gamblers might have a hard time deciphering this week since the familiarity factor is all but tossed out. Of the 14 games, only three feature divisional opponents knocking heads. Five of the remaining contests are non-conference games, which makes the past history even tougher to handicap. Let?s take a closer look at the three divisional games.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens are no longer a defensive club folks, rather an offensive machine. They?re averaging 31 PPG and Joe Flacco is the real deal. The jury is still out on Cincinnati, whose offense has been inconsistent. Both teams have seen the ?over? go 3-1. Gamblers might want to pass on this matchup, considering the total has been split the last four seasons. If the ?over? hits Sunday, then come back with the ?under? in the second meeting on Nov. 8 from Cincinnati.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have gone ?under? the number. Still, the books have put out an eye opening number of 46 points. The Titans? defense (27 PPG, 362 YPG) isn?t on the same level as last year and injuries are piling up. Indy?s offense (26.5 PPG, 414 YPG) is the most efficient in the league, but it?s not a quick strike attack. With a total (45.5) this high, you better hope the Colts get touchdowns instead of field goals.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The total on this game is hovering around 36 points, which is the lowest number on the board in Week 5. The Dolphins like to run the football and the Jets have proven that they can stop the run. Both teams feature young quarterbacks in Henne and Sanchez, plus neither team has serious playmakers on the outside. The Dolphins have seen the ?over? go 2-0 at home, but the Jets have watched the ?under? go 3-1 on the year. The last eight totals in this series have gone 4-4.

Bye Bye Points

In last week?s Total Talk column, we pointed out a road total system on the N.Y. Giants and it cashed, barely. This week, we?re staying in the NFC East and leaning on a golden trend for head coach Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Since Reid began his tenure in Philadelphia, the burly coach has had a knack of preparing his team, especially with a two-week window. His record against the spread off a bye is a phenomenal 12-3 (80%). We?re not going to push you to lay the double digits with the Eagles (-15) over Tampa Bay this Sunday, rather point you towards the total.

In the same span that Reid has compiled the sick ATS record, he?s also seen a string of ?under? tickets cash. A ledger of 14-1 (93%) to be exact, which makes you wonder if it?s time to bust the trend?

Looking at this week?s matchup further, I can?t find a reason to lean up unless you want to tell me the Eagles are 3-0 to the ?over? this year. I watched the Buccaneers lose to the Redskins 16-13 last Sunday and the offense was disgusting. The QB Josh Johnson doesn?t know what he?s doing, yet he still had a shot to win the game, which shows you had bad Washington is. Why Tampa Bay settled for three late in the game instead of taking a shot also showed me the ineptness of new head coach Raheem Morris. The offense was lucky to get 13, the kicking game was inconsistent (2-of-4) and the third-down conversions (2-of-13) was downright embarrassing.

This total (42) seems a little high on paper plus the Eagles? Donovan McNabb hasn?t had much success against the Bucs (0-4) or their secondary, in particular Ronde Barber. Both are older players, but Barber has a young stud, Aqib Talib, on the other side that could be just as good as him. Philadelphia will get its points but with a rusty McNabb and two weeks to focus on defense, this game has all the makings of a 27-10 whitewashing.

The Afternoon Unders

This trend continues to gain steam and it?s probably helping the sportsbooks offset some of the public action on the sides after four weeks. The 4:00 ET NFL matchups are often bail-out games for gamblers and those playing the ?over? have been burned often. The ?under? has rolled to an 11-5 (69%) mark, which includes last Sunday?s 3-1 effort. The Dolphins? 38-10 win over the Bills was the only contest that went ?over? in Week 4?s late games. Will this be the week that the trend reverses back and the public actually hits some chase bets in the afternoon?

Atlanta at San Francisco (41): The Falcons come in with a week of rest and head coach Mike Smith hopes the time off will help the defense (381 YPG), which is the third worst in the league. Fortunately for Atlanta, the 49ers don?t have a juggernaut of an offense (264 YPG) and running back Frank Gore is expected to miss again. San Francisco?s defense (13.3 PPG, 284 YPG) is one of the best in the league and it?s only given up 10 points at home in two games.

New England at Denver (41): Is the Denver defense for real? The unit is ranked first in points (6.5 PPG) and second in yards (239 YPG) and last week?s win against Dallas (17-10) proved that they can match up with a balanced attack. The Patriots have scored 25 points in three or their four games, all wins too and at home. But they did get held to nine points in a loss to the Jets, another opponent with a top-notch defense and on the road. The Broncos have seen the ?under? go 4-0 this year, while the Pats have watched the total go 2-2.

Houston at Arizona (50): The biggest total of the week is in the desert this week and it appears that the public believes Arizona will break out against Houston. The Cardinals haven?t won at home (0-2) this year and they?ve only scored a combined 26 points, something they did in halves last year. Houston doesn?t have a great defense (23 PPG 368 YPG) by any stretch and the numbers are a lot worse if you take out the stats from last week?s 29-6 victory over Oakland. In 2008, Arizona saw the ?over? go 9-1 in its 10 home games but the ?under? has started 2-0 this year. Will the pendulum swing back?

Seattle at Jacksonville (NA): The status of Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck is ?questionable? and the bookmakers have realized that backup Senecca Wallace isn?t that capable despite tossing in some garbage scores last week. The Jaguars have scored 68 points in the last two weeks and is on a 3-1 ?over? run. After posting a shutout (28-0) shutout against the Rams in Week 1, the Seahawks? defense has surrendered 23, 25 and 34 points in the last three games, all losses too.

Fearless Predictions

We?re not going to stick the chest out since we all know you?re only as good as next bet but we pulled off the sweep in Week 4 due to some luck. On the year, the totals now stand at 4-2 (+180) and the teasers now stand at 1-2 (-100). Based on one-unit plays, we?re in the BLACK for $80. Let?s try to keep it rolling. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Steelers-Lions (44)

One thing we?ve learned after four weeks is that Detroit is suspect to the pass and Pittsburgh?s passing attack (299 YPG) is the third best in the league. Big Ben and the Steelers should have their way against a unit that is giving up a league-worst 72.5 completion percentage. That?s an outrageous number folks, especially compared to the majority teams that are at 62% or less. Provided it?s not a blowout, the Steelers should put up a combination of six scores for this matchup. We know Stafford is out for Detroit, but that?s probably better since Culpepper likes to take more shots deep. They don't see each other often but the last five meetings between Pittsburgh and Detroit has gone 'over' the number.

Best Under: Buccaneers-Eagles (43)

If you couldn't tell above, I really have no respect for Tampa or its head coach and while the QB might be able to make some plays with his feet, we expect more mistakes. Hopefully, they don't result in easy defensive touchdowns. If you can get down, I would strongly suggest a team total ?under? on the Bucs as well, especially if its 14 ?.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Over 35 Steelers-Lions
Under 52 Buccaneers-Eagles
Over 40.5 Texans-Cardinals

 

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Trend Setters - Week 5

Trend Setters - Week 5

Trend Setters - Week 5

There are plenty of solid trends to watch out for as we head into Week 5 of the NFL season. The number of undefeated teams is at five (Colts, Giants, Saints, Broncos, and Vikings), while six other clubs are searching for their first victory (Titans, Chiefs, Bucs, Panthers, Rams, and Browns). Not only will we take a look at several games this week with pertinent trends, but also situations with 4-0 and 0-4 teams at this point of the season.

Home teams that battle 0-4 opponents the last five seasons are just 3-7-1 ATS, while home favorites laying at least 10 ? points against 0-4 teams are 5-11 ATS since 1983. The only team that qualifies this week is the Eagles, taking on the hapless Bucs.

Meanwhile, road teams that have to travel to 0-4 opponents the last five seasons are 1-5 ATS and 5-1 to the 'over.' Dating back to 1984, these teams are 10-23 ATS (30%). Three teams qualify for this system, including the Vikings, Cowboys, and Colts.

Indianapolis goes to Tennessee on Sunday night, as home teams taking on 4-0 opponents the last five years are 6-2-1 ATS. The Titans are the lone qualifier this week, which works out well both ways to back Tennessee and fade Indianapolis according to the previous system.

Buccaneers at Eagles (-15, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia returns from the bye week, as Donovan McNabb comes back to the Eagles lineup after missing the last two games with a rib injury. This is a prime spot to back Philadelphia, as the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in the regular season under Andy Reid following the bye, including a 10-1 mark to the 'under.'

The Bucs scored a touchdown on their first possession last week at Washington, but failed to reach the end zone during the remainder of a 16-13 loss to the Redskins. Tampa Bay now sits at 0-4, as the Bucs are 4-8 ATS their last 12 road games when coming off an away contest.

Vikings (-10, 40) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST

It's a battle of the haves and have-nothings when Minnesota and St. Louis hook up on Sunday. The Vikings are a perfect 4-0, while the Rams are languishing at 0-4. Some of the thinking is Minnesota may have a letdown following the emotional victory over Green Bay on Monday night. That probably won't happen this week, as the Rams have been shut out twice this season, while scoring double-digits only once.

St. Louis is a miserable 4-10 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season, including a 2-6 ATS mark when receiving at least a touchdown. The Rams are 4-0 ATS the last four home meetings with the Vikings, even though Minnesota last visited St. Louis in 2003.

The Vikings haven't been a spectacular play on the road off a home win under Brad Childress. Minnesota is just 3-6-1 ATS in this spot, dating back to 2006, including an 0-4 ATS mark last season.

Patriots (-3, 41) at Broncos - 4:15 PM EST

The battle of the minds takes place at Invesco Field as former coaching colleagues Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels meet up Sunday. Amazingly, Denver owns a better record than New England after four weeks, as the two teams are a combined 7-1.

Despite a loss as road 'chalk' to the Jets in Week 2, the Patriots are still an excellent play when laying points away from home. Since 2004, New England is 24-9 ATS as a road favorite, including a 15-4 ATS mark as single-digit road 'chalk.' However, the Pats have struggled in the Mile High City, going 1-3 SU/ATS the last four meetings at Invesco.

The Broncos have been one of the better stories this season in the NFL, but Denver is still 5-17-1 ATS the last 23 home games, dating back to 2006. The Broncos face the Chargers next week, and Denver has not been a solid play prior to playing San Diego, going 3-15 ATS the last nine seasons in this spot.

Jets (-2, 36) at Dolphins - 8:30 PM EST (Monday)

The Jets look to rebound after losing their first game of the season at New Orleans, 24-10. Rex Ryan's club heads back south this week to take on the Dolphins, who won their first contest over the Bills, 38-10. The Jets have owned this series over the years, winning eight of the last ten meetings, while going 8-1-1 ATS.

Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 3-8 ATS at home, including a 1-4 ATS record as a home 'dog. Dating back to 2004, Miami is 4-12 ATS at home off a SU win, including a 1-5 ATS mark last season.

 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES


THREE REASONS TO LIKE BROWNS (+6) OVER BILLS

The Browns showed life with Derek Anderson at quarterback and should be able to keep it close.

The Bills defense is about as bad as Cleveland's, so this will be a battle of equally inept units.

The Bills have scored only 17 points in the past two games. The offenses are going in opposite directions.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE BENGALS-RAVENS OVER (42)

The Ravens are averaging 31 points a game and the Bengals 21.

Both teams have gone over the total in three of their first four games.

The Ravens are averaging 146 yards rushing a game and 267 yards passing. They have transformed into an offensive team.

LAST WEEK: 1-1

SEASON: 4-4

 

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Undefeated Mannings face different obstacles

Undefeated Mannings face different obstacles

Undefeated Mannings face different obstacles

Eli dealing with injury; Peyton eyes angry foe


Who has the best job in sports? The majority of responses to that question might be Steve Williams, Tiger Woods' caddie. But let's throw another name in the hopper, Archie Manning. If he were a racehorse, he'd sell for a high price.

As it stands, his job is to root on his bloodlines, while appearing in about half of Peyton's and Eli's multitude of commercials. It's good work if you can get it.

The Manning brothers each have won a Super Bowl and quarterback two of the NFL's five undefeated teams.

Bettors will be watching the Mannings closely today.

Eli Manning should have little trouble keeping the bagel in the loss column when the New York Giants host the laughable Oakland Raiders. Manning is listed as questionable with an injured right heel, but he's expected to play.

Manning has made 82 consecutive starts. His backup is David Carr. The Giants are 15-point favorites, and the number might drop slightly if Manning is sidelined.

Peyton Manning has his work cut out for him as the Indianapolis Colts travel to Nashville to face the angry, winless Tennessee Titans. The Colts are 4-point favorites.

Marvin Harrison is gone, but the Colts are thriving with Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark as the go-to weapons of choice for Manning. Enter youngsters Donald Brown, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, and Indianapolis has not skipped a beat.

Since the Colts and Titans became AFC South foes in 2002, Manning is 4-3 at Nashville, but he has lost two of his past three games there. He has passed for 300-plus yards in all four games this season.

"There is nothing to knock when it comes to Peyton Manning," said Tony Sinisi, Las Vegas Sports Consultants odds director. "His preparation is second to none. He does it all."

As for the floundering Titans, Sinisi looks to the sidelines and the immovable force that moved, defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who signed with Washington.

Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher is a shining light, but he is without two major components -- Haynesworth and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, now Detroit's coach -- to the Titans' success of recent years.

The New England Patriots visit the unbeaten Denver Broncos, with coaching subplots in the equation. Broncos coach Josh McDaniels faces his former team with an opportunity to beat one of the NFL's top contenders.

How much can McDaniels' familiarity with Bill Belichick and the Patriots' system factor into the outcome?

"It can go both ways," Sinisi said. "McDaniels knows how New England does things, but to me it's the teacher versus the student. I'm more inclined to think Belichick will throw him a curveball and switch things up."

The Patriots opened as 31/2-point favorites, and sharp action early in the week dropped the line to 3.

There's a first-place AFC North showdown in Baltimore, where the Cincinnati Bengals challenge the Ravens, who are 81/2-point favorites.

Baltimore might be the most balanced team in the league through the first month. If receiver Mark Clayton's fingers hadn't turned into knuckles late last week at New England, the Ravens could be unbeaten.

But is a letdown a possibility for Baltimore after its showdown with the Patriots? That's not a concern, according to LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba.

"The Ravens will not overlook a vastly improved Bengals team," Seba said. "This is a horrible spot for Cincinnati, as the Ravens are smarting from losing a very winnable game last week."

The Bengals markedly have improved on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Carson Palmer's return to health makes their offense viable.

 

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Broncos staying under

Broncos staying under

Broncos staying under

Denver total vs. Pats likely to continue run


If the Denver defense shuts down Tom Brady today, the Broncos' dwindling group of detractors might shut up for a while.

At the same time, it's highly unlikely Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is going to win a shootout with the New England Patriots.

The unbeaten Broncos are 3-point home underdogs to the Patriots. Denver's defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring, allowing 6.5 points per game, and The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said he expects a tight, low-scoring game.

Marshall is 4-0 with recommended plays on the Broncos under the total this season, so he's riding the trend and betting under 41.

"Denver has allowed no cheap scores yet through its four games, which has greatly contributed to the 'under' pattern," Marshall said.

"The Patriots will contribute to a slower pace because (coach) Bill Belichick is re-emphasizing the run and a shorter passing game, designed in part to protect Brady and his surgically repaired knee. Belichick is unlikely to subject Brady to the Denver pass rush.

"There is a fundamental problem oddsmakers have when a team like Denver keeps posting combined scores in the 20s. The oddsmakers simply can't post a total as low as Denver's pattern warrants. By the looks of the total this week, we're not there yet."

Marshall outlines technical notes on other Week 5 games:

? Tampa Bay at Philadelphia: The Buccaneers are 1-7 against the spread (ATS) in their past eight games. Eagles coach Andy Reid is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite since last year. Edge: Eagles.

? Cincinnati at Baltimore: Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 3-1 ATS this season and 17-6 since taking over last year. Baltimore also is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 as a favorite. Edge: Ravens.

? Atlanta at San Francisco: 49ers coach Mike Singletary is 4-0 ATS this season and 9-2-1 in the past 12 games. San Francisco is 7-2 under the total in its past nine. Falcons coach Mike Smith is 7-3 under on the road. Edge: 49ers, Under.

? Houston at Arizona: Texans coach Gary Kubiak is 16-9 over the total in his past 25 games, and the Cardinals are 22-9 over in their past 31. Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt is 0-2 as a favorite this season, and the underdog has covered in the past six Cardinals games. Kubiak is 5-3 ATS in his past eight as a road 'dog. Edge: Texans, Over.

 

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Well-rounded Ravens soaring

Well-rounded Ravens soaring

Well-rounded Ravens soaring

Improved offense, solid defense make Baltimore strong play vs. Bengals



Defense has been the Baltimore Ravens' calling card for most of the decade. Second-year quarterback Joe Flacco is starting to change the team's one-sided image.

Flacco is one of the NFL's brightest young players at his position, and coach John Harbaugh is setting him loose.

The Ravens rank eighth in the league in defense, which is expected. Their offense ranks No. 3 and has rolled up an average of 31 points per game, an added dimension that makes Baltimore a good bet most weeks.

In a meeting of AFC North teams with 3-1 records, the Ravens are 81/2-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals today.

"Baltimore's defense is strong. Flacco will come out throwing the ball, and they will run on this Cincinnati defense," said handicapper Mike Scalleat, who is siding with the Ravens. "They need this win against a division opponent.

"I think the line is a little low. If the Bengals were 2-2, you would see double digits here."

Cincinnati was fortunate to beat the winless Cleveland Browns in overtime last week. The Bengals also pulled out a last-minute victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers the previous week.

With quarterback Carson Palmer healthy, the Bengals are gaining confidence. But Flacco, who has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,103 yards and eight touchdowns, is playing at a higher level.

He is getting ground support, too, as Ray Rice has rushed for 295 yards and Willis McGahee 201.

Harbaugh is 17-6 against the spread in his second year as coach, and he's 2-0 as a double-digit home favorite this season with covers against Cleveland and Kansas City.

"The Ravens are coming off a loss to New England. But they played very well, and if they had any luck they would have won that game," said Scalleat, who placed fourth in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest in 2007 and 40th in 2008.

Scalleat (Ecappermall.com) analyzes the rest of today's Week 5 schedule:

? Minnesota (-101/2) at St. Louis: The Rams rank 30th in the league in offense and 19th in defense. The Vikings are coming off an emotional win Monday. It's tough to lay any points on the road, especially double digits, but this looks like a mismatch. Adrian Peterson will run for a lot more than the 55 yards he had on 25 carries against Green Bay. The Vikings should cover the spread, unless Brett Favre has an off game.

? Dallas (-8) at Kansas City: This is a big number, and the Chiefs can play the Cowboys tough and cover at home. Marion Barber is a tough runner for Dallas, but Tony Romo is an inconsistent quarterback. Good teams rebound after a loss, but I don't think Dallas is a good team, and I don't think Wade Phillips is a sharp coach. You have to look for some underdogs this week, and this is one of them.

? Washington at Carolina (-4): This is going to be a game the Panthers win by at least 10. Carolina's defense is not that bad, and John Fox is a good coach. Jake Delhomme knows he has to have a good game, or I don't know how much longer Fox can stick with him at quarterback. The Redskins struggled to beat a bad Tampa Bay team last week, and Jim Zorn is not a good coach. The Panthers can be a pretty good team, but they haven't shown it yet.

? Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-15): Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb is coming back from a rib injury, and running back Brian Westbrook probably will play. Philadelphia definitely can score points, and its defense can take advantage of young Bucs quarterback Josh Johnson, who passed for only 106 yards against the Redskins. The Eagles are 12-3 ATS after a bye week, including the playoffs, under coach Andy Reid. It's a big number, but I'm going to bet Philadelphia.

? Oakland at New York Giants (-151/2): Running back Darren McFadden is out for the Raiders, and JaMarcus Russell has completed 39.8 percent of his passes with one touchdown and four interceptions. Giants quarterback Eli Manning is injured, but it looks as if he's going to play. The Giants have a strong defense, and they're too strong all around. I played the Giants on a 6-point teaser laying 81/2. West Coast teams don't do well with early kickoff times on the East Coast. This looks like a 24-3 game.

? Cleveland at Buffalo (-6): If the Bills can't beat this team, they're in a lot of trouble. Buffalo has been outscored 65-17 in its past two losses, to Miami and New Orleans. The Browns traded receiver Braylon Edwards to the Jets, which should be a good move for the Browns and Jets. With two poor offenses, I'm looking under the total of 41.

? Pittsburgh (-101/2) at Detroit: There is a troubling trend with the Steelers, who get a lead and slowly that lead disappears. Daunte Culpepper didn't do anything at quarterback for the Lions last week, and he's likely to start with rookie Matthew Stafford injured. I doubt Pittsburgh will cover the spread. I have a feeling this is when the Lions will play them tight. But it could be a crazy play.

? Atlanta at San Francisco (-21/2): The Falcons are off a bye week, but I don't think that's going to help them. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS, and they are getting more in tune with coach Mike Singletary. Even without Frank Gore, the 49ers can run the ball, and their defense will keep it tight. I think you have to take San Francisco at home.

? New England (-3) at Denver: Patriots coach Bill Belichick will have a plan to do something against the Broncos' Kyle Orton, who has not thrown an interception and has a surprisingly high 97.7 passer rating. Orton is doing some things, but it's more Denver's defense. Tom Brady won't make the mistakes Dallas' Romo did last week against the Broncos. New England is one of the top five teams in the league, and Denver is not. This is a game the Patriots can't afford to lose and drop to 3-2. I'm going to lean toward the Patriots, who should outclass this opponent.

? Houston at Arizona (-51/2): Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner has explosive receivers, but Warner is unpredictable. The Texans can run, and Matt Schaub has been good. Schaub has passed for eight touchdowns and 1,047 yards, ranking him seventh in the league. This line is telling me Arizona is not that strong. It's not the same team that went to the Super Bowl. I watched the Cardinals self-destruct in the loss to the Colts.

? Jacksonville at Seattle (-11/2): Is Matt Hasselbeck starting for the Seahawks? It looks as if he is playing, but to me it doesn't matter if he plays or not. I'm not a big fan. The Jaguars' David Garrard is a quarterback I like better. Maurice Jones-Drew has 296 yards rushing and five touchdowns, so Jacksonville has a good running game, and its defense played well last week. The Jaguars won a game convincingly when everyone was betting on Tennessee. I'm going with Jacksonville as an underdog.

? Indianapolis (-4) at Tennessee: Peyton Manning has been playing great, leading the league in passing yards (1,336) and rating (114.5). This is desperation time for Titans quarterback Kerry Collins, because I don't think coach Jeff Fisher can stay with him if he doesn't have a good game. Tennessee can run the ball. I've seen Manning struggle on the road, and it won't hurt the Colts if they lose here. It's a letdown spot for them. This is a case where they either win by a field goal or get beat. The Titans are way overdue, and they are a strong home 'dog.

 

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Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Picks

Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Picks

Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Picks


Week 5

1) Carolina -3.5 vs. Washington
2) Philadelphia -13.5 vs. Tampa Bay
3) New York Jets -1.5 at Miami
4) Atlanta +2.5 at San Francisco
5) Tennessee +4 vs. Indianapolis


Station Casinos Football Challenge

Week 5

1) New England -3 at Denver
2) Carolina -3.5 vs. Washington
3) Indianapolis -3.5 at Tennessee
4) San Francisco -2.5 vs. Atlanta
5) New York Jets -2 at Miami

 

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Sunday's key NFL line moves

Sunday's key NFL line moves

Sunday's key NFL line moves

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (+10.5, 40.5)

Opening line: -10, 40.5

Where the early action is: 92 percent - Vikings

Comments: Big win earlier this week for the Vikings on Monday night versus the Packers. It was the first game the 4-0 Vikings actually had the lead at halftime. Kyle Boller will make his second start in place of the injured Marc Bulger, which doesn?t help the Rams? chances. The early action is heavy once again on the Vikings and we expect it to remain that way. The Vikings could be in a dangerous let down spot here. They might look past this game and on to three tough games ahead of them.

Fact: The Rams have lost 15 of their last 17 home games

INJ: St. Louis - QB Marc Bulger (Rotator Cuff) is downgraded to doubtful,

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (+9, 42.5)

Opening line: -9, 43

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Cowboys

Comments: Both teams lost last week and both desperately need a win this week. The Cowboys are looking for their first break out game and the Chiefs are looking for their first win. The straight bet action is light on this game due to the high spread. Like last week, the bettors are going back to teasing these higher spreads. The line will likely stay where it is, we aren?t sure what to expect from either team and give this line toss-up odds to cover either way. Teaser bets on this game will be our major decision.

Fact: The Cowboys have lost three consecutive times to AFC teams heading into Arrowhead this week.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-4, 37.5)

Opening line: -3.5, 37.5

Where the early action is: 89 percent - Panthers

Comments: The winless Panthers come off a bye week at home against a Washington team that has two wins but those were against winless teams; Rams and Bucs. Basically, the Redskins are the worst .500 team in the league. This is a huge game for the Panthers and we think they will come out recharged and desperate. Despite their strong running game, look for Steve Smith to put up some big numbers. The action is heavily one-sided which caused the line to move up. We expect the line to continue to grow. We give the Panther huge odds to win and moderate odds to cover the spread.

Fact: The Redskins have owned the Panthers in the past. The series history between these teams is 7-1 Redskins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-16, 41.5)

Opening line: -16, 43.5

Where the early action is: 52 percent - Eagles

Comments: The Eagles are coming off a bye week at home against the winless Buccaneers. QB Donovan McNabb (ribs) and RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) are both expected to return. The early straight bet action is very light on this game with teasers once again taking on majority of the bets. The odds give Tampa Bay almost zero chance to pull off an upset, but the Bucs have grit and we like them to stay within 16.

Fact: Philadelphia has never lost the week after the bye since Andy Reid became the team's head coach in 1999. They are 10-0.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-16, 38)

Opening line: -16.5, 41

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Giants

Comments: This line was held off the board for most of the week due to Eli Manning?s injury status. It was announced Saturday he will play. The Raiders are a troubled team and we don?t see this as a turn around game for them. Oakland?s run defense ranks 26th in the league and Giants offense ranks sixth on the ground. The action is light so far, the line has only been open a few hours, but we expect the action to pile up on the Giants and rightfully so. Oakland will have a hard time finding the end zone again this week.

Fact: Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell can?t hit the broad side of a barn; he has completed less than 40 percent of his passes in the last three games.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-6, 41.5)

Opening line: -6, 40

Where the early action is: 77 percent - Bills

Comments: Last week the Bills showed us how bad they really are against the winless Dolphins losing 38-10. It?s major desperation time for both teams, so expect anything. No one is betting this game with real money, the volume is low with only a few bets on the favorite. We give both teams big odds to lose.

Fact: The Browns last win was 10 games ago against the Bills in November 2007.

INJ: Cleveland - RB Jamal Lewis (hamstring) listed as questionable.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 42.5)

Opening line: -9, 41.5

Where the early action is: 68 percent - Bengals

Comments: There are some Bengals backers out there who feel this line is too high. Sure they beat Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but they also struggled last week against the Browns. If you can get past that, then this line if for you. We are holding it high for a reason and probably won?t lower it. We expect balanced straight bet action and one-sided teaser action.

Fact: The Ravens average 10.7 points allowed in their last 10 home games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+10.5, 44)

Opening line: -11, 43

Where the early action is: 93 percent - Steelers

Comments: All Steelers action all week ? especially teasers. With Matt Stafford out with a knee injury, Daunte Culpepper gets the start. Our bettors aren?t taking any chances with this one and are loading up teasing the Steelers. There is no way to balance this type of action. No one is touching the Lions this week. We?ll need a Steelers let down game to keep from taking a big hit.

Fact: Ben Roethlisberger is currently carrying a huge 73.2 completion percentage.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 40.5)

Opening line: -2.5, 41

Where the early action is: 59 percent ? 49ers

Comments: This should be a very interesting game. The 3-1 49ers are clicking even without RB Frank Gore and the 2-1 Falcons come off their bye week, after losing to the Patriots. The Falcons had a hot start to their season prior to their loss two weeks ago; can they get back up to that level? A win here would do it. We expect a close game as the line suggests, but give the 49ers a slight home field advantage.

Fact: Shaun Hill?s record as a starter at Candlestick is 7-0.

NJ: San Francisco - RB Frank Gore (ankle) expected to miss

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3.5, 41)

Opening line: -4, 41.5

Where the early action is: 52 percent - Broncos

Comments: The 4-0 Broncos are once again a home underdog. Normally this would be a surprise for an unbeaten team to not get recognized like this each week, but each week their opponents are getting stronger and stronger. The line opened Patriots -4 but was quickly bet down to -3.5. There are some strong Broncos backers this week, unlike last week. The public bettors are starting to believe in the Broncos defense and see the home team staying within 3 points. There is more money line action on the Patriots. We aren?t sure what to expect, except it will be a shocker to see the Broncos 5-0.

Fact: The Broncos lead the regular season history versus the Patriots 24-16

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 50)

Opening line: -5.5, 48

Where the early action is: 72 percent ? Texans

Comments: Arizona comes off its bye week after getting routed by the Colts at home 31-10. Everyone knows the Cards have not played well at home yet this season. The odds indicate this week will be their turning point, but the betting public seems to feel otherwise. Matt Schaub is white hot averaging 291 passing yards per game. Are we going to see the high flying Cards of the past? The over/under suggests a high scoring affair.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 44)

Opening line: Pick, 44

Where the early action is: 92 percent ? Seahawks

Comments: Seattle ? The bettors have jumped on Seattle because QB Matt Hasselbeck is expected to play. This couldn?t come soon enough for the 1-3 Seahawks. They have only once had an offensive play over 25 yards since Hasselbeck went down. However, they are playing against a streaking Jacksonville team. That?s what makes this game a pick?em. Seattle will be tested on the ground; the club couldn?t stop Frank Gore a few weeks ago and might have the same problem against Maurice Jones Drew. We agree this game is truly a coin-toss. The best thing the Seahawks have going for them is the home field.

Fact: Jacksonville has only three sacks this season, which ranks last in the league.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4, 44.5)

Opening line: -4, 46

Where the early action is: 85 percent - Colts

Comments: Two teams going in opposite directions. This will be a heavily bet game because it?s the last game of the day. We?ll look to balance the bets as evenly as possible, if the action remains this way by mid-Sunday, expect the line to move up. The winless Titans are sticking to their winless ways this week. A bit surprising to us, we expected something to change, especially at QB. On the other side Colts QB Peyton Manning is completing almost 71 percent of his passes and has 9 TD passes for 1,336 yards. But maybe we won?t see a high-flying game. That?s what dropped the over/under on this game.

Fact: Titans RB-Chris Johnson leads the NFL in rushing with 434 yards.

 

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NFL prop shop: Schaub in shootout in the desert

NFL prop shop: Schaub in shootout in the desert

NFL prop shop: Schaub in shootout in the desert

I went 2-0 with QB props last week, but missed the mark with two others as Maurice Jones-Drew and Ted Ginn Jr. were surprisingly non-factors in their teams? blowout victories.

We have a promising board to work with this week and I?m aiming for my first 4-0 sweep of the season.

Let?s get to the picks.

Most rushing yards

Clinton Portis (Washington Redskins) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)

It?s probably not a bad idea to fade the Redskins any way you can at this point.

I?ll do so by calling for DeAngelo Williams to outrush what appears to be a less-than-100-percent Clinton Portis.

Portis has yet to turn in a 100-yard rushing performance this season, picking up just 281 yards on 72 carries so far. That?s despite going up against three consecutive weak defenses in St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa Bay.

Carolina?s run defense has been dreadful, allowing 5.4 yards per rush, but I think having an extra week to prepare for this game should help their cause. This is a better defense that it has shown so far this season.

DeAngelo Williams will continue to get the bulk of the carries as long as Jonathan Stewart is struggling. Williams picked up 5.8 yards per rush against the Cowboys last time out.

Stewart hasn?t been much of a factor this season, running the ball only 23 times through three games.

Take: Williams

Most passing yards

Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Shaun Hill (San Francisco 49ers)

Shaun Hill hasn?t been asked to do too much, and it?s paid off for the 3-1 Niners.

However, this week I look for Hill to play a bigger role in the offense.

Keep in mind, RB Frank Gore isn?t expected to suit up.

The Falcons secondary hasn?t exactly been a shut-down unit, allowing 245.3 pass yards per game on 6.5 yards per pass play. Even Jake Delhomme was able to throw for over 300 yards against them.

While Atlanta has struggled in pass coverage, San Francisco has thrived. The 49ers are holding opponents to just 210.2 pass ypg on 5.4 ypp.

Mike Smith has had the tendency to go conservative with his offense on the road, and that should be the case again here. Ryan completed only 17 passes against the Patriots in his last road contest.

Take: Hill

Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) vs. Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals)

The Texans and Cardinals should be involved in a fun shootout Sunday afternoon, and I?ll give the nod to Matt Schaub over Kurt Warner in terms of passing yardage.

Arizona hasn?t been able to stop anyone through the air, allowing a whopping 280.3 pass yards per game on 7.7 yards per pass play.

Is that going to change against Schaub, who has already thrown for over 1,000 yards and picked up more than eight yards per pass this season?

Kurt Warner has had one great game, and two mediocre games. Less seems to be more with the aging QB, and I think Ken Whisenhunt has figured that out.

Watch for the Cardinals to use a gameplan similar to the one that helped them win 31-17 in Jacksonville a few weeks back. Warner threw the ball only 26 times in that contest, while the Cards ran the ball 24 times.

That type of balance keeps Warner from winning this passing duel.

Take: Schaub

Most pass receptions

Mike Sims-Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Seattle Seahawks)

Mike Sims-Walker is emerging as a star in Jacksonville, and he?s doing so with little fanfare.

That serves to give us additional value in his matchup with T.J. Houshmandzadeh Sunday.

Sims-Walker has already developed excellent chemistry with Jaguars QB David Garrard, hauling in at least six catches for more than 80 yards in each of his last three games.

Houshmandzadeh is still trying to get on the same page as his Seahawks quarterbacks.

It looks like Matt Hasselbeck will be back for the Seahawks this week but that doesn?t bode well for T.J.

In his first two games of the season, Houshmandzadeh caught only 10 passes for 110 yards from Hasselbeck.

Take: Sims-Walker

 

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Favre aims for Vikings? first 5-0 start since 2003

Favre aims for Vikings? first 5-0 start since 2003

Favre aims for Vikings? first 5-0 start since 2003

The Minnesota Vikings will be looking to start the NFL season 5-0 for the first time since 2003 when they visit the winless St. Louis Rams on Sunday.

The Vikings are a 10-point favorite and the over/under is 41 in NFL Betting Odds at betED.com.

Despite the differing overall records this season, St. Louis has had lots of success head-to-head, going 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 4-1 SU in the past five.

But that was in the pre-Brett Favre era.

The Vikings gunslinger went 24-of-31 for 271 yards with three touchdowns to lead the Vikings to a 30-23 win over his former team, the Green Bay Packers, in a NFC North showdown on Monday Night Football.

Minnesota covered as 4-point home favorites and the score went over the 47-point total.

St. Louis got shut out 35-0 by NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers in Week 4.

Also Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have to face starting quarterback Donovan McNabb when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles are a 16-point favorite and the total is 41.5 in NFL Football Lines.

Last week, the Buccaneers fell 16-13 to the Washington Redskins, with the Bucs covering as 9-point road dogs. The Eagles had a bye last week, but defeated Kansas City Chiefs 34-14 as a 7.5-point favorite in Week 3.

And on Sunday Night Football, the undefeated Indianapolis Colts visit the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South divisional battle (8:20 pm ET, NBC).

The Colts are 4-point favorites and the total is 45.5.

Peyton Manning was 31-of-41 for 353 yards passing with two touchdowns and an interception, as the Colts hammered the Seahawks 34-17 in Week 4. Indianapolis covered as 12-point home favorites.

And the Titans fell 37-17 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4. The Titans had been favored by 3.5 points.

 

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Giants' Manning questionable after returning to practice

East Rutherford, NJ
Eli Manning was back at practice on Friday, testing his injured right foot, and New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin indicated his starting quarterback is questionable for Sunday's game against Oakland.

"If he gets to the point that the medical people think he can play and not be subject to an injury, then chances are he will play," Coughlin said. "He wants to play in the worst way but he's not going to go against the medical people."

Manning missed the previous two days of practice after leaving this past Sunday's game against Kansas City. An MRI exam on Monday revealed an injury to the plantar fascia as well as soreness and swelling in the heel/arch area on the bottom of his right foot.

Coughlin confirmed Manning and backup David Carr split snaps with the first- team offense on Friday, and the club was encouraged with Manning's progress.

"I watched him throw and he looked fine. He really did look good. We'll see how it goes on Sunday but I think he'll play," Carr said after practice.

Manning has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 1,039 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions for the 4-0 Giants this season. His 104.1 passer rating ranks third in the NFC behind Drew Brees of New Orleans and Minnesota's Brett Favre.

Additionally for the Giants, running back Danny Ware (elbow) is questionable, while running back Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle, foot), receiver Domenik Hixon (knee), guard Rich Seubert (shoulder), and defensive end Justin Tuck (shoulder) are probable.

Tight end Kevin Boss (ankle) is doubtful.