NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

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NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

The Sunday night feature game figured to be a key matchup at the outset of the season. Since then, things have gone in entirely different directions for the Colts and Titans. Indianapolis (4-0, 3-1 ATS) is unbeaten and has the chance to drive a nail into the coffin of their winless rivals. The Titans (1-3 ATS) have dropped seven of their last eight games overall and with games against Indy and New England up next, and face going into their bye week at 0-6. The Colts? bye is next week, and they have been strong in that scenario, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 pre-bye week road games. However, they are just 3-9 ATS in their dozen divisional road games. Head coach Jeff Fisher?s club has lost its last four games vs. AFC South foes, but owns a 5-1 ATS mark vs. Indianapolis in the last six head-to-head games.

Strong safety Bob Sanders hasn?t stepped on the field all season as he continues to rehab from knee surgery, third-year wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez played but a few minutes before going down in the opener with a knee injury and defensive end Dwight Freeney is nursing a strained quadriceps, yet the Colts can put themselves in position to run away and hide in the AFC South if they can knock off the Titans and stretch their winning streak out of the gate to five.

The Colts are certainly no strangers to fast starts as this marks the fifth time in the last seven seasons they won at least their first four. They drew national attention in 2005 when they opened 13-0, and they won their first nine the following year and went on to beat Chicago in the Super Bowl. Indianapolis was also 5-0 in 2003 and 7-0 in ?07, and there?s no telling when loss No. 1 is going to come this year although Tennessee would like it to be sometime before midnight eastern time on Sunday.

The Colts are playing their third road game under the lights in four weeks and Peyton Manning was nothing short of lights-out in the first two and the Titans, coming off an ugly 37-17 loss in Jacksonville, know what to expect. Manning led a Week 2 victory on Monday night in Miami by throwing for 303 yards and two touchdowns, including a 48-yard scoring toss to Pierre Garcon, in a game that saw him take only 35 snaps. Manning then carved apart Arizona on Sunday night in Week 3, throwing four touchdown passes in a 31-10 romp. He hasn?t been too shabby in day games, either, with 301 yards in the opener against Jacksonville and 353 and four touchdowns last week in a 34-17 victory over Seattle.

Manning made just a cameo appearance in the regular-season finale against Tennessee a year ago as the Colts had no chance of leapfrogging the Titans for the division title and already secured a wild-card spot. He went 7-for-7 for 95 yards and a touchdown, and Indianapolis went on for a 23-0 win to avenge a 31-21 road loss in Week 8. It marked the third consecutive year these teams split their season series.

Line ? Indianapolis -3.5 (Courtesy of Sportsbook.com)
Total ? 44.5

Team Trends
The Colts are 15-3 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more points.
The Colts are 14-4 ATS after gaining six or more yards per play in three consecutive games.
The Titans are 16-6 ATS off three or more straight Overs.
The Titans are 6-3 ATS as division home underdogs.

Team Totals
The Colts are 13-4 OVER in road games versus good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry.
The Titans are 13-4 OVER after scoring 17 points or less in two straight contests.

Sunday Night Trends
The Colts are 15-18 ATS and 5-1 ATS as road favorites.
The Titans are 11-8 ATS and 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.
Home teams are 4-11 ATS after losing by 14 or more points.


Dr. Bob of Dr. Bob Sports

Tennessee applies to a very good 52-14-1 ATS scheduling situation, a 25-4-2 ATS week 5 situation, and a 94-45-4 ATS statistical profile indicator while Indianapolis applies to a negative 29-74-6 ATS situation that is based on their recent high scoring victories. That's some pretty strong technical analysis favoring the Titans in this game, but the math strongly favors the Colts.

Indianapolis is playing at an incredible level with Peyton Manning having perhaps his best season ever (9.5 yards per pass play) for an offense that is averaging 7.3 yards per play. The Colts are also playing consistently well defensively, allowing 4.9 yppl or less in every game they've played and just 4.5 yppl for the season despite facing some pretty good offensive teams. Tennessee, meanwhile, is 0-4 despite out-gaining their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.5 yppl, as their -5 turnover ratio has hurt them in close losses. Tennessee is still a better than average team but the Colts are playing on another level and I'm not going to buck them as long as they're playing this well. My math model, using this year's games only, favors the Colts by 16 1/2 points and my ratings favor Indy by 7 1/2 points. I'll favor the Colts to cover despite the strong situational analysis favoring the Titans.

Sports Advisors-

The reeling Titans, who just last season had the NFL?s best record, try again to grab their first win of the 2009 campaign when they face the AFC South rival Colts at LP Field.

Tennessee, which went 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in the 2008 regular season, got drummed by Jacksonville 37-17 Sunday as a three-point road chalk. The Titans trailed 30-3 in the third quarter, and QB Kerry Collins (29 of 48, 284 yards, 1 TD) threw a pair of INTs as Tennessee lost the turnover battle 3-1 and had an eight-minute time-of-possession deficit.

Indianapolis remained unbeaten in coasting to a 34-17 victory over Seattle on Sunday, giving up two meaningless late TDs after storming to a 34-3 lead. QB Peyton Manning (31 of 41, 353 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led four TD drives of 78 yards or more as the Colts rolled up 431 total yards while allowing just 279. The Indy defense also forced a pair of fumbles from Seahawks QB Seneca Wallace.

Tennessee is 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the last six clashes in this rivalry, covering five straight times before Indianapolis? 23-0 rout as a three-point home ?dog in the final week of the 2008 regular season, with both teams resting players for the postseason. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Titans are stuck in ATS ruts of 1-5 overall, 0-4 in division play, 0-4 after a SU loss and 1-5 against AFC foes, but they still hold positive ATS streaks of 7-1 as a home pup and 8-0 when catching 3? to 10 points. The Colts are on pointspread surges of 5-1-1 on the highway, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 8-2 in October, but they?ve gone just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 division tilts (0-1 ATS in the division this year).

Indianapolis is on ?over? runs of 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in October and 5-2 inside the division, and the over for Tennessee is on tears of 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as a home ?dog, 23-10-1 in October, 37-17-1 after a SU loss and 42-20-1 following an ATS setback. Conversely, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 

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Do or Die for the Titans

Do or Die for the Titans

Do or Die for the Titans


Before the season started this Week 5 showdown between the Colts and Titans at LP Field as an early battle for AFC South supremacy. Now Tennessee (0-4 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) has its proverbial back against the wall for NBC?s Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. EDT.

The Titans opened the season with a tough 13-10 road loss in Pittsburgh in a game where they had every chance to win. It?s been all downhill from then on for Tennessee as they?ve fallen to the Texans, Jets and Jaguars ? all teams that failed to yield a winning 2008 campaign.

What exactly has happened to Jeff Fisher?s club to turn them into an also-ran in 2009? expert handicapper Bruce Marshall thinks a lot of the Titans? success had to some good luck that fell into their lap. ?I think their success was something that really snowballed almost accidentally last season, triggered by a couple of early events that, if they didn't happen, could have changed the direction of the campaign. Specifically, Vince Young?s early injury and Collins stepping in at quarterback turned out to be an incredible stroke of good luck. The Titans won a few early close games, and the momentum began to surge. They made few mistakes last season (only 17 TOS all season). The defense was robust and injuries were relatively few.?

Marshall makes a good point on Tennessee holding onto the ball. Last year, the Titans were second in the league with a giveaway-takeaway mark of plus-14. Through four tilts this season, they are a paltry minus-five.

Injuries have taken their toll on the Titans? secondary. Safety Vincent Fuller (forearm) is ?out? until November. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and Nick Harper (ribs) are both listed as ?questionable? for Sunday?s showdown. Those are huge losses for a group that allowed just 199.8 passing yards per game last season. They?re giving up a league worst 282.3 YPG through the air in 2009.

Marshall thinks it all starts with the man who isn?t there running the show. ?The turnovers and injuries haven't helped, and (Albert) Haynesworth's departure was a blow, but I think the biggest difference since a year ago is the departure of defensive coordinator (Jim) Schwartz. The stop unit isn't the same this season and I think Schwartz's absence is a main reason. The breakdowns in the secondary, which have led to big plays and points allowed, which have led to a different pace of the last three games, which has led to Colllins' reduced effectiveness and the turnover problems, are all byproducts of the defensive breakdowns. Caused mostly, I believe, by Schwartz's departure. And it creates a very scary scenario vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts. If Matt Schaub, David Garrard, and Mark Sanchez have looked good against this Titan defense, it's scary how Manning could look Sunday night.?

It is going to be a tough task to stop Indianapolis? (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) offense right now. The Colts are sixth in scoring offense (26.5 points per game) and lead the league in passing offense (334.0 YPG). Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that Indy is pulling in those numbers by ranking near the bottom in time of possession, averaging just below 28 minutes per game.

Those stats make it a pretty easy to understand why Manning leads the league with a 114.5 quarterback rating. But the fact that he?s doing this without Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez in the lineup is impressive. Dallas Clark has caught 26 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, youngsters Pierre Garcon (10 receptions, 207 yards, 2 TD) and Austin Collie (12 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD) have stepped up.

The Colts? have clicked on the attack this year. They?ve scored 11 touchdowns in their last three games ? six of them were on drives that lasted less than two minutes, 30 seconds. And of those six scores, only one was less than 60 yards.

Indianapolis has dominated the outright numbers of this series with a 7-3 SU mark, but they?re just 5-5 ATS. The Titans have gone 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings. The ?under? is on a profitable 7-1 run between these rivals.

Bodog initially opened the line for this game with the Colts as 3 ?-point road favorites with a total of 46. That line has now moved with Indianapolis as a four-point road ?chalk? with the total moving down to 45.

Richard Gardner of Bodog gives us a peak into why the spread is where it has been posted. ?The line opened at -3.5 and has moved to -4 with heavily action as this easily the most off side game. The Titans injuries to the secondary obviously play a part, but even more important has been the offensive excellence shown by the Colts. The new wide receivers appear to have clearly defined roles and the general public has always loved to bet on teams where the offense is on a roll. Throw in the fact that the Titans have disappointed a lot of bettors and are still winless, and it creates the recipe for the one way action.?

It?s hard to tell what a win would do for the Titans in this spot. They?re in New England next weekend to take on the Patriots. Then Tennessee plays host to the Jaguars after its bye week. Follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco to take on a tough 49er defense. It?s very possible that the Titans could be 0-8 before taking on the Bills at LP Field for Week 10.

A win for Indy would give them even more momentum as they head into the open date on its schedule next week. The Colts have a solid chance to stay unbeaten with a road trip to St. Louis, then at home to play San Francisco and Houston.

The gambling public should note that the underdogs have gone 2-3 SU, but 3-1-1 ATS on Sunday Night Football this season. The ?under? had gone 3-2 in those primetime affairs as well. Don?t forget that we?re including the aforementioned Steelers-Titans matchup that was played on Thursday.

 

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Preview: Colts (4-0) at Titans (0-4)

Preview: Colts (4-0) at Titans (0-4)

Preview: Colts (4-0) at Titans (0-4)


Date: October 11, 2009 8:20 PM EDT

Last season, Tennessee and Indianapolis both made the playoffs out of the AFC South as the Titans finished with the league's best record to end the Colts' run of five straight division titles.

Both teams were expected to contend for that crown again this season, but only one looks like it will make a return trip to the playoffs.

Peyton Manning and the Colts look to improve to 5-0 on Sunday night as they face the winless Titans.

Manning has gotten off to a superb start with a franchise-record four consecutive 300-yard games, helping Indianapolis open 4-0 for the fourth time in five seasons.


The three-time league MVP is the league's top-rated passer after completing 31 of 41 for 353 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in last Sunday's 34-17 win over Seattle.

Manning has the Colts back in a familiar place, leading the division, after a slow start last year led to the team finishing out of first place for the first time since 2002.

The Titans (0-4) took advantage, opening 2008 with 10 consecutive wins - including a 31-21 victory over the Colts in Week 8 - en route to a 13-3 record to run away with the South.

Things haven't gone as smoothly for Tennessee this season.

The Titans are off to their worst start since beginning 0-5 in 2006, and those Super Bowl aspirations aren't looking so good. Only one team has started 0-4 and reached the playoffs - San Diego in 1992.

Despite the awful start, coach Jeff Fisher is trying to stay positive. His 2002 team started 1-4 but managed to reach the AFC championship game.

"They'll find a way out of this, and that's all we can do," Fisher said. "I know I've said this before, but you come back and you work and you try to find a way to win the next game and keep your focus on improving."

Fisher is sticking with Kerry Collins at quarterback rather than switching to Vince Young even though the 15-year veteran already has almost as many interceptions (six) as he did in all of 2008 (seven).

"Kerry's not the problem," Fisher said of the NFL's 28th-rated passer.

The defense is definitely a problem, and it will have its hands full trying to stop Manning.

The Titans were second in the league in scoring defense a year ago (14.6 ppg) but are tied for 26th this year (27.0). They've struggled to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers, accumulating nine sacks and six interceptions, down from 15 and eight after four games last season.

In last Sunday's 37-17 loss to Jacksonville, Tennessee allowed David Garrard to throw for 323 yards and three touchdowns.

Garrard, a quarterback who directs a run-first offense, picking apart their defense does not bode well for the Titans in this matchup.

Manning has led Indianapolis to a league-best 13 consecutive regular-season wins since last year's loss to the Titans, including a 23-0 home victory over Tennessee in a Week 17 finale with no playoff implications.

The Pro Bowl quarterback threw for 223 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions at Tennessee last season but could have better luck against a banged-up Titans team that is tied for last in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 282.3 yards per game.

From Tennessee's secondary, nickel back Vincent Fuller is out with a broken right forearm while cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and Nick Harper (ribs) are listed as day-to-day.

While the Titans defense is in shambles, Indianapolis' is looking strong.

The Colts are tied for fourth in the league in both scoring defense (15.5) and sacks (12) with defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis already recording five sacks each.

Freeney, Mathis and the rest of the Indianapolis defense have completely shut down the run in the last two games, limiting Seattle and Arizona to a combined 73 rushing yards.

"What makes it fun is success," Freeney said. "That's what's going on right now around here. You build off that momentum and everything snowballs."

Plus, the Colts defense could welcome back linebacker Gary Brackett after he missed two games with a sprained knee, and safety Bob Sanders is closer to making his season debut after having his most extensive practice time since undergoing offseason knee surgery.

The Colts now focus on stopping Titans running back Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 434 yards rushing. He ran for 77 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in the win over Indianapolis last season.

 

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INDIANAPOLIS (4-0) vs TENNESSEE (0-4)

INDIANAPOLIS (4-0) vs TENNESSEE (0-4)

INDIANAPOLIS (4-0) vs TENNESSEE (0-4)

Game Time: 8:20 p.m. EDT Sunday, October 11

Stadium: Adelphia Stadium Surface: grass






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
INDIANAPOLIS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 2 - 0 2 - 0 4 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 0 3 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 2
Last 5 games 2 - 0 2 - 0 4 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 0 3 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 2
YTD vs. Div. 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
TENNESSEE HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 0 - 1 0 - 3 0 - 4 0 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 3 1 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 1
Last 5 games 0 - 1 0 - 3 0 - 4 0 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 3 1 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 1
YTD vs. Div. 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 2 1 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 0
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
INDIANAPOLIS 1 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 1
TENNESSEE 0 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

INDIANAPOLIS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun JAC 14 - 12 W -7.5 -6.5 L -4.5 43.0 45.0 U -19.0 T
09/21/09 Mon @MIA 27 - 23 W -3.0 -3.0 W 1 40.5 41.0 O +- 9.0 G
09/27/09 Sun @ARI 31 - 10 W +0 +3 W 24 49.5 49.5 U -8.5 G
10/04/09 Sun SEA 34 - 17 W -9.5 -10.0 W 7 43.0 44.0 O +- 7.0 T


TENNESSEE
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/10/09 Thu @PIT 10 - 13 L +5.5 +6.5 W 3.5 37.0 36.0 U -13.0 G
09/20/09 Sun HOU 31 - 34 L -7.0 -7.0 L -10 40.0 41.0 O +-24.0 G
09/27/09 Sun @NYJ 17 - 24 L +3 +1 L -6 36.5 36.0 O +- 5.0 G
10/04/09 Sun @JAC 17 - 37 L +0 -3.0 L -23 40.5 41.5 O +-12.5 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
10/02/05 Sun IND 31 TEN 10 +7.5 +7 TEN --14 47.0 46.0 U -5 G
12/04/05 Sun TEN 3 IND 35 -16.0 -15.5 IND +16.5 51.0 50.0 U -12 T
10/08/06 Sun TEN 13 IND 14 -20.0 -17.5 IND --16.5 47.0 48.0 U -21 T
12/03/06 Sun IND 17 TEN 20 +8 +7.5 TEN +10.5 47.5 46.5 U -9.5 G
09/16/07 Sun IND 22 TEN 20 +6.5 +6.5 TEN +4.5 47.5 46.0 U -4 G
12/30/07 Sun TEN 16 IND 10 -3.0 +4 IND --2 42.0 40.0 U -14 T
10/27/08 Mon IND 21 TEN 31 -4.0 -4.0 TEN +6 41.0 41.0 O +-11 G
12/28/08 Sun TEN 0 IND 23 -1.5 +3 IND +26 40.0 38.5 U -15.5 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (off) 29.0 18 21 94 4.5 29 19 0.7 337 11.6 431 0.5 0.0 .00
TEN (def) 34.0 19 29 63 2.2 39 25 0.6 357 9.2 420 0.0 0.0 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (def) 16.5 24 31 132 4.3 44 27 0.6 232 5.3 364 1.5 0.5 .00
TEN (off) 31.0 19 26 240 9.2 33 21 0.6 216 6.5 456 1.0 1.0 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (off) 26.5 20 24 84 3.5 34 24 0.7 330 9.7 414 0.8 0.3 .00
TEN (def) 27.0 20 28 80 2.9 37 26 0.7 282 7.6 362 0.8 0.8 1.00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
IND (def) 15.5 20 27 107 4.0 40 25 0.6 202 5.1 309 0.8 0.8 .00
TEN (off) 18.8 18 25 137 5.5 38 22 0.6 223 5.9 360 1.5 1.3 .33



SCORING AVERAGES:

INDIANAPOLIS (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.5 13.5 17 3.5 8.5 0.0 12
POINTS ALLOWED 5.0 3.0 8 3.5 5.0 0.0 8.5



TENNESSEE (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 14.0 10.0 24 7.0 0.0 0.0 7
POINTS ALLOWED 7.0 17.0 24 7.0 3.0 0.0 10



INDIANAPOLIS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.5 12.0 15.5 5.3 5.8 0.0 11.1
POINTS ALLOWED 2.5 3.8 6.3 1.8 7.5 0.0 9.3



TENNESSEE (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.5 7.5 11 5.0 2.8 0.0 7.8
POINTS ALLOWED 7.8 10.3 18.1 4.3 4.0 0.8 9.1



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
INDIANAPOLIS 56
TENNESSEE 56.5 -4.0 7.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 39.5 6.5 under

 

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NFL Preview - Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4)

NFL Preview - Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4)

NFL Preview - Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4)




- Both the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts underwent significant coaching changes during the offseason. The aftermath couldn't have been more different for the two AFC South rivals.

The reeling Titans will try again to claim an elusive first victory of 2009 when the high-powered Colts pay a visit to LP Field for a pivotal divisional showdown this Sunday night.

The offseason head coaching switch from the now-retired Tony Dungy to trusted assistant Jim Caldwell has been a remarkably seamless transition for Indianapolis, which is off to a flying 4-0 start and has posted easy wins in each of its last two contests. That excellent beginning has been a continuance of last season's success, when the Colts won their final nine outings of the 2008 campaign to reach the playoffs for a seventh year in a row.

Following last Sunday's 34-17 triumph over visiting Seattle, Indianapolis has now won 13 straight non-playoff tests. The team's last regular-season loss came to the Titans at LP Field, a 31-21 setback during Week 8 of the 2008 ledger.

While the Colts may have new authority at the top, the team's leader on the playing field remains the same. Quarterback Peyton Manning has been sensational through the early portion of this season, with the reigning NFL MVP having racked up four consecutive 300-yard games and tossing nine touchdown passes over that outstanding stretch.

Indianapolis' surge could be viewed as a mild surprise, but Tennessee's precipitous fall from grace has to be considered one of the biggest shocks of this 2009 season. The 0-4 Titans have already lost more games than last year's edition which nudged out the Colts for the AFC South crown and top overall seed in the conference playoffs with a 13-3 mark.

The downfall of a once-mighty defense has been the biggest culprit for that unwanted start. The unit, now under the supervision of Chuck Cecil following former coordinator Jim Schwartz's acceptance of the Detroit Lions' head coaching job in January, has surrendered an average of 27 points per game and is tied for last in the NFL in passing yards allowed.

The Schwartz-led 2008 defense yielded the second-fewest points in the league and garnered 20 interceptions, while also standing among the NFL's best with 44 sacks.

Tennessee has been plagued by sloppy play on the offensive side as well, having committed 11 giveaways and a minus-five turnover ratio through the first four games. During last year's run to the AFC South title, the Titans were a plus-14 in turnover margin and gave the ball away a total of only 17 times.

SERIES HISTORY

Indianapolis holds a 16-12 lead in its all-time regular season series with Tennessee, including a conventional split of last year's home-and-home. As previously noted, the Titans were 31-21 home winners when the teams met in Week 8 of last season, a victory that enabled Tennessee to win the AFC South by a game over Indianapolis. The Colts were 23-0 victors in the return matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 17, but both teams rested several starters in that contest in preparation for the postseason. The Colts, who are 9-3 against the Titans since 2003, last won in Tennessee in 2007.

The only postseason meeting between the two was in a 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff, when Tennessee scored a 19-16 road victory en route to a Super Bowl appearance.

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher has a 6-9 record against Indianapolis, including the aforementioned playoff victory. Caldwell will be meeting both Fisher and Tennessee for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

Manning (1336 passing yards, 9 TD, 3 INT) just keeps getting better with age, as the legendary 12th-year pro has completed a sizzling 70.8 percent of his throws through the first four weeks and has flawlessly guided an offense that tops the NFL with an average of 334 passing yards per game. He hasn't done it alone, however. Standout wide receiver Reggie Wayne (26 receptions, 399 yards, 3 TD) and field-stretching tight end Dallas Clark (26 receptions, 364 yards, 2 TD) have also put together tremendous starts, while young wideouts Pierre Garcon (10 receptions, 2 TD) and Austin Collie (12 receptions, 1 TD) have emerged as viable threats in place of the injured Anthony Gonzalez, who's been sidelined with a sprained knee suffered in the season opener. Running backs Joseph Addai (183 rushing yards, 16 receptions, 3 total TD) and Donald Brown (132 rushing yards, 2 TD, 5 receptions) are also capable receivers out of the backfield, although neither has made a huge impact running the ball. The Colts come in ranked just 29th overall in rushing offense (84.0 ypg).

Sunday's matchup bodes well for another prolific passing day out of Manning. Not only are the Titans yielding a whopping 282.3 yards per game through the air, but the team has had to endure a litany of injuries to a thin secondary. Top cover man Cortland Finnegan (17 tackles, 1 INT) and nickel back Vincent Fuller (9 tackles, 1 INT) both missed last week's 37-17 loss to Jacksonville with a hamstring strain and fractured right arm, respectively, while starting corner Nick Harper (31 tackles) was forced to leave the game with bruised ribs. The club is hopeful that Finnegan, a Pro Bowl participant in 2008, will be able to suit up on Sunday, but Harper's status is less certain. The depleted backfield was toasted for 323 yards and three scores by the Jaguars' David Garrard, with rookies Jason McCourty (7 tackles) and Ryan Mouton (9 tackles) enduring trials by fire when forced into more prominent roles. Tennessee has been awfully tough in defending the run, having given up a scant 79.8 yards per game (8th overall) and 2.8 yards per rush, and held Jacksonville star Maurice Jones-Drew to 14 yards on six totes a week ago.

WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL

Look for the Titans to attempt to keep Manning and the Colts' quick-strike offense on the sidelines by employing a heavy dose of running backs Chris Johnson (434 rushing yards, 14 receptions, 3 total TD) and LenDale White (82 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions). The fleet-footed Johnson has been the unquestioned bright spot during Tennessee's dreadful start, with the second- year sensation entering this week's play leading the NFL in rushing yards and averaging a super 6.3 yards per touch. A strong running game should also ease the burden on struggling quarterback Kerry Collins (914 passing yards, 5 TD, 6 INT), who's thrown four interceptions and completed just over 50 percent of his attempts in the team's last two losses. A new-look receiving corps has played solidly, as talented rookie first-round pick Kenny Britt (17 receptions, 271 yards) put up career-bests of seven catches and 105 yards in the Jacksonville game and offseason pickup Nate Washington (14 receptions) has hauled in a touchdown pass in three straight weeks. The Titans are presently averaging 137 rushing yards per game, the ninth-best mark in the league.

Johnson will be taking on an Indianapolis stop unit that's made great improvement in containing the run in two games since being gashed for 239 rushing yards in a narrow Week 2 win at Miami. The Colts have since held Arizona and Seattle to a combined 73 yards total on the ground, with the Seahawks mustering a paltry 49 on 19 attempts last Sunday. Those two impressive performances have come without the services of dependable middle linebacker Gary Brackett (17 tackles), who's due back from a sprained knee this week. If Indianapolis can keep Johnson from running wild, it'll be able to unleash the fearsome pass-rushing duo of ends Dwight Freeney (10 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and Robert Mathis (15 tackles, 4.5 sacks). Mathis had three sacks and forced two fumbles in a dominating display against the Seahawks, while Freeney managed to register his fifth sack of the year despite seeing limited action due to a quadriceps injury. Indy's eighth-rated pass defense (201.8 ypg) will likely be without one of its main contributors on Sunday, with cornerback Kelvin Hayden (10 tackles, 2 PD) slated to miss a third straight game with a sore hamstring.

FANTASY FOCUS

With Manning leading the league in passing and the short-handed Titans secondary giving up yards in bunches, it goes without staying that the three- time league MVP should be in all lineups this week. Wayne and Clark are no- brainer starts as well, and Garcon's turned into a worthwhile option as a No. 2 receiver with his playmaking ability. Even though both Addai and Brown split touches in the backfield, both Indy backs have good value as flex players. The duo has combined for five touchdowns already this season. Johnson is clearly a must-use, but he may be the only one on the Tennessee roster. Britt and Washington do offer potential at the wide receiver spot, as the former is emerging as Collins' go-to guy and the latter has three straight games with a touchdown catch. With the Colts' ability to generate pressure and the Titans fielding an immobile and turnover-prone quarterback, the Indianapolis defense becomes an intriguing alternative.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

With their season already hanging in the balance, you can expect the Titans to come out swinging and give their division rivals everything they've got for 60 minutes. That still may not be enough, however, with Manning playing at such an extraordinary high level and Tennessee's obvious problems on defense. Look for the Titans to take a page out of the Miami playbook and attempt to play keep-away with a ball-control approach, a strategy that nearly enabled the Dolphins to pull off a win a few weeks back. Manning was able to overcome that tactic, however, and it would be no surprise if he and his Indianapolis teammates are able to fend off a spirited charge from a determined Tennessee team.

Predicted Outcome: Colts 27, Titans 20

 

[Lumi]

NFL Matchup - Indianapolis at Tennessee

NFL Matchup - Indianapolis at Tennessee

NFL Matchup - Indianapolis at Tennessee

Indianapolis Colts (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-4)
Date: Sunday, October 11th
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. (et)
Site: LP Field (69,143) -- Nashville, Tennessee
Surface: Natural Grass
Home Record: Indianapolis 2-0; Tennessee 0-1
Away Record: Indianapolis 2-0; Tennessee 0-3
Versus A-F-C South: Indianapolis 1-0; Tennessee 0-2
Versus A-F-C: Indianapolis 2-0; Tennessee 0-4
Current Win/Loss Streak: Indianapolis 4W; Tennessee 5L (1 in playoffs)
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: Indianapolis 2W
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: Tennessee 2L (1 in playoffs)
Television: NBC
Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Andrea Kremer
All-Time Series: Indianapolis (16-13 -- Tennessee, 1-0 in playoffs)
Last Meeting: December 28, 2008 (Indianapolis, 23-0 at Indianapolis)
Series Streak: Indianapolis has won nine of the last 12 meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
Indianapolis Colts
Sep 13 - W vs. Jacksonville, 14-12
Sep 21 - W at Miami, 27-23
Sep 27 - W at Arizona, 31-10
Oct 4 - W vs. Seattle, 34-17
Oct 11 - at Tennessee, 8:20 PM
Oct 18 - Open
Oct 25 - at St. Louis, 1:00 PM
Nov 1 - vs. San Francisco, 1:00 PM
Nov 8 - vs. Houston, 1:00 PM
Nov 15 - vs. New England, 8:20 PM
Nov 22 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
Nov 29 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
Dec 6 - vs. Tennessee, 1:00 PM
Dec 13 - vs. Denver, 1:00 PM
Dec 17 - at Jacksonville, 8:20 PM
Dec 27 - vs. NY Jets, 4:15 PM
Jan 3 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Tennessee Titans
Sep 10 - L at Pittsburgh, 10-13 (OT)
Sep 20 - L vs. Houston, 31-34
Sep 27 - L at NY Jets, 17-24
Oct 4 - L at Jacksonville, 17-37
Oct 11 - vs. Indianapolis, 8:20 PM
Oct 18 - at New England, 4:15 PM
Oct 25 - Open
Nov 1 - vs. Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
Nov 8 - at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
Nov 15 - vs. Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Nov 23 - at Houston, 8:30 PM
Nov 29 - vs. Arizona, 1:00 PM
Dec 6 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
Dec 13 - vs. St. Louis, 1:00 PM
Dec 20 - vs. Miami, 1:00 PM
Dec 25 - vs. San Diego, 7:30 PM
Jan 3 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM

 

[Lumi]

Preview:
Indianapolis at Tennessee
When: 8:20 PM ET, Sunday, October 11, 2009
Where: LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Tennessee Titans are ranked 33 on offense, averaging 0.0 yards per game. The Titans are averaging 0.0 yards rushing and 0.0 yards passing so far this season.


The Indianapolis Colts are ranked 15 on offense, averaging 0.0 yards per game. The Colts are averaging 0.0 yards rushing and 0.0 yards passing so far this season.



Home and Away

The Tennessee Titans are 0-1 at home this season, and against 0-2AFCS opponents.

At home the Titans are averaging 31.0 scoring, and holding teams to 34.0 points scored on defense.

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-0 while on the road this season, and 1-0 against AFCS opponents.

On the road, the Colts are averaging 29.0 scoring, and holding teams to 16.5 points scored on defense.

 

[Lumi]

Trends - Indianapolis at Tennessee

Trends - Indianapolis at Tennessee

Trends - Indianapolis at Tennessee

ATS Trends

Indianapolis

Colts are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5.
Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
Colts are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Colts are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC South.
Colts are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.


Tennessee

Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Titans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Titans are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Titans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC South.
Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


OU Trends

Indianapolis

Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in October.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 vs. AFC.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 vs. AFC South.
Over is 23-10 in Colts last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 17-8 in Colts last 25 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


Tennessee

Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 home games.
Over is 6-2 in Titans last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 9-3-1 in Titans last 13 games as a home underdog.
Over is 10-4 in Titans last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 10-4-1 in Titans last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 23-10-1 in Titans last 34 games in October.
Over is 37-17-1 in Titans last 55 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 42-20-1 in Titans last 63 games following a ATS loss.


Head to Head

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.