What's that MNF trend again?

[Glenn Quagmire]

I remember last year somebody posted a MNF trend that said something like 75-80% of the time the dog covered, they won outright. And I think it was for something ridiculous like the last 15-20 years. I'm probably butchering the hell out of that stat, but I remember being surprised by it. Sure enough though, the dog seems to almost always win outright if they cover.

Anyone remember the exact trend?

 

[LookKaPyPy]

85% SU win if they cover, last 10 years, and they've been covering at the 40-45% clip, which makes them about 35% SU winner and you need +175 on the ML to break even.

Rough numbers, give or take few % on each side.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

85% SU win if they cover, last 10 years, and they've been covering at the 40-45% clip, which makes them about 35% SU winner and you need +175 on the ML to break even.

Rough numbers, give or take few % on each side.

You're saying the dogs have only covered at a 40-45% clip the last 10 years? I'm not saying it's wrong, but where did you find that info?

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Hmmm I was looking at home dogs only...


Since 1998, monday dogs (any):

65-124 SU (34%)
90-95-4 ATS (47.6%)

and consequently
65-25 SU (72%) when covering ATS those 90 games.


Same period on Sundays (?ver 2500 games), all dogs are 32.8% SU, 49.6% ATS and 66% SU when winning ATS. Pretty solid jump on SUATS winners.