NLCS Preview - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - NL East Champion; defeated Colorado, 3-1 NLDS
LOS ANGELES DODGERS - NL West Champion; defeated St. Louis, 3-0 NLDS
For the second straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers will battle for the right to represent the National League at the World Series when the best-of-seven NLCS gets underway on Thursday at Dodger Stadium.
Philadelphia, of course, needed five games to get past the Dodgers a year ago en route to its first World Series title since 1980.
The Phillies followed up their second-ever championship with their third consecutive NL East title, going 93-69 in the regular season.
Philadelphia, which is in this round for the eighth time in team history, started its title defense by beating the Colorado Rockies in four games. After splitting the first two games of the set in Philadelphia, the Phillies won the last two in Colorado, winning Game 4 in dramatic fashion, as they overcame a two-run deficit in the ninth to pull out a 5-4 win.
"We knew going into the ninth inning we had the right guys coming up at the top of the order and we had gotten to Street the night before. We knew we had a shot to make some things happen," stated Ryan Howard, who tied the game with a two-run double.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is back in the NLCS for the ninth time in team history after an impressive three-game sweep of the NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.
"We put all these games in the season, 162 behind us, we put these three behind us, and we're that much closer to achieving that goal (of winning the World Series)," Andre Ethier said. "This series behind us, this win, this clinch, just closer to our goal, which we stated day one of spring training, which was win the World Series."
Los Angeles led the NL West for most of the season, but did not clinch a division title until the final weekend of the season, despite finishing with an NL-best 95 wins.
The Dodgers also won back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1977-78.
These teams are also no stranger to one another in the postseason. In addition to last year's matchup, these teams have met on three other occasions. The Phils beat LA in 1983 to advance to the World Series, while the Dodgers defeated them the first two times they squared off (1977-78).
The Dodgers won the season series with the Phils, 4-3, as they took two of three at Citizens Bank Park and split the four games at Chavez Ravine.
LINEUP
There is no better lineup in the National League than that of the Phillies, who finished the regular season leading the league in runs (820), doubles (312), home runs (224), total bases (2,493), RBI (788) and slugging percentage (.447).
Of course, in the middle of it all is first baseman Ryan Howard, who had another incredible year at the plate, as he became just the fourth player in major league history (joining Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa) to have four consecutive 40 HR/130 RBI seasons.
Howard, who also had by far his best year defensively, finished the year with 45 home runs, 141 RBI with 105 runs scored, while hitting .279, his highest average since batting .313 in his MVP campaign of 2006.
Howard has carried his strong year at the plate into the postseason, as he went 6-for-16 with six RBI.
Howard wasn't the only one supplying the power, though, as Raul Ibanez (34 HR), signed this offseason to replace Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth (36 HR) and Chase Utley (31 HR) all went over 30 home runs on the season.
Werth also had a tremendous first round series against the Rockies, belting two home runs and knocking in four runs, while walking four times.
However, Philadelphia isn't just about the long ball, as the Phillies had four players go over 20 stolen bases this season with shortstop Jimmy Rollins leading the way with 31. Rollins (.250, 21 HR, 77 RBI), the 2005 NL MVP, didn't have his best year offensively, but still swiped a team-high 31 bases and scored 100 runs.
Of course you can't forget about center fielder Shane Victorino, who had six RBI in last year's NLCS and more often than not is in the middle of every big Philadelphia rally.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, got nowhere near the production from Manny Ramirez that it received last year. Of course, his 50-game suspension had something to do with that, but in the end he hit .290 with 19 home runs and 63 RBI.
Ramirez, though, always shines in October. In 103 games, he is a career .286 hitter with 28 home runs and 74 RBI. Last year in eight playoff games, the 2004 World Series MVP was 13-for-25 with four homers and 10 RBI.
However, he was just 4-for-13 with two RBI in the series against the Cards. In last year's NLCS Ramirez was 8-for-15 with two home runs and seven RBI.
In a way the Ramirez suspension may have been the best thing to happen to LA. Admittedly, the Dodgers began to rely a little to much on their slugger. With him out, players like Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp needed to step up and they did.
Ethier set career-highs with 31 homers and 106 RBI, while also having a flare for the dramatic, as his four walk-off home runs were the most since Washington's Roy Sievers did it in 1957
Ethier was the offensive catalyst in the Dodgers' win over the Cards, hitting .500 (6-for-12) with two home runs and three RBI. Ethier, though, hit just .194 against left-handers this season.
Kemp, meanwhile, will need to step it up in this series. He went hitless in his last eight at-bats of the regular season and was just 2-for-14 against the Cards.
At times the Dodgers seemed to be all or nothing, as they scored seven-plus runs in 42 games. On the other hand there was also 43 games where they crossed the plate two or fewer times.
EDGE: PHILLIES
STARTING PITCHING
Cole Hamels was charged with the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS, but you can't blame him if he may have had other things on his mind, as his wife went into labor during the contest. Hamels wasn't informed until after he was taken out following the fifth inning, but he surrendered four runs and seven hits.
The start was a sharp contrast to his performance in last year's postseason, when he nabbed both NLCS and World Series MVP awards. Hamels, who shut out the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on June 4, went 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against them in last year's NLCS.
Charlie Manuel has a decision to make with regards to Game 2. He could go with either righties Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez, or he could go back to lefty J.A. Happ, who gave up three runs in three innings in Game 3 of the NLDS.
However, there is no question as to who will take the ball in Game 3, as left- hander Cliff Lee will get the call. Lee was magnificent for Philadelphia in his two starts against the Rockies, yielding just two earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.
Dodgers manager Joe Torre hasn't named a starter for Game 1 of this series, but he could go with 21-year-old lefty Clayton Kershaw.
He was terrific for the Dodgers in his NLDS start, as he held the Cardinals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings. But he did not factor in the decision, and regardless of how well he has pitched of late, he is still winless in his last 12 starts.
However, he has given up more than three runs just once since May 12.
Kershaw is also 0-3 lifetime against the Phillies with a 6.64 ERA in four starts.
If Kershaw goes in the first game, Randy Wolf will likely go in Game 2. Wolf won six of his last seven decisions in the regular season, earning him the start in Game 1 of the NLDS. However, he did not get out of the fourth inning in that one, as he allowed two runs, six hits and walked five batters in 3 2/3 innings of his first-ever postseason appearance.
Wolf, of course, is very familiar with Philadelphia. An original second round pick of the Phillies in 1997, Wolf pitched the first nine years of his career in Philadelphia.
He is just 1-1 in three starts against them with a 4.42 ERA.
Things could get interesting for the Dodgers in Game 3, as Hiroki Kuroda, who was left off the NLDS roster because of a neck injury, is apparently better. Kuroda went 8-7 with the Dodgers this season, but won three of his final four starts.
Kuroda has also pitched to a 0.95 ERA in three starts against the Phils and beat them in last year's NLCS.
Vicente Padilla will also be in the mix to start a game. Padilla, who also pitched five-plus years in Philly, continued his resurgence with the Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cards, as he scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings.
Oddly enough the odd man out should Kuroda be active for this series could be All-Star Chad Billingsley, who won 16 games last year and led the Dodgers this year with 12, but has been awful and lost his last five decisions of the season.
EDGE: PHILLIES
BULLPEN
Philadelphia entered the postseason with perhaps the shakiest bullpen situation of all the postseason teams, specifically closer Brad Lidge. Despite blowing a league-high 11 saves during the season, though, Lidge saved both of his chances in the NLDS.
Lidge is still shaky, but at least he has restored a little bit of faith with the Philly Faithful.
However, should he falter, Manuel could turn to flame-throwing righty Ryan Madson, who was terrific in setting Lidge up, but was nothing special when thrust into the closer's role, as he himself blew six saves.
Left-hander Scott Eyre also got some important outs for Manuel against Colorado.
The Dodgers pulled off, perhaps, the most underrated move at the trade deadline in acquiring left-hander George Sherrill from the Baltimore Orioles. Sherrill, who had saved 51 games for the O's since the start of last year, has served as the perfect setup man for Jonathan Broxton, allowing just two runs and pitching to a minuscule 0.65 ERA in 30 games.
Broxton was 7-2 with a 2.61 ERA and ended the year with 36 saves.
Also expected to chip in for the Dodgers are righties Ramon Troncoso, Jeff Weaver and James McDonald, along with lefty Hong-Chi Kuo.
EDGE: DODGERS
MANAGERS
Torre, of course, is in the postseason for a record-tying 14th straight year and will be making is his ninth appearance in the LCS. His 83 postseason victories are more than any manager in baseball history.
Manuel, meanwhile, is back in the postseason for the third straight year with the Phillies and his fourth time overall as a manager. Manuel also led the Cleveland Indians to an AL Central title in 2001, but his team lost in five games in the ALDS to Seattle.
EDGE: DODGERS
BENCH
The main reserves for the Phillies are Ben Francisco, Greg Dobbs, Miguel Cairo and Matt Stairs. Bruntlett could be used late in games for his defense, while Stairs has become one of the most feared left-handed bats off the bench.
Los Angeles is very familiar with the heroics of Stairs, who hit a pinch-hit two-run home run to put the Phils ahead in Game 4 last season.
Some people were scratching their heads when the Dodgers picked up slugger Jim Thome in August. He has been used primarily as a pinch-hitter for the Dodgers, but had just four hits for them in 17 at-bats and did not have a home run.
Juan Pierre, who filled in admirably when Ramirez was suspended, leads the league with 12 pinch-hits since the All-Star break and in 49 pinch-hitting appearances is hitting .333 with two triples, five walks, nine runs scored and a .404 on-base percentage.
EDGE: DODGERS
PROGNOSIS
These teams are very evenly matched. Their lineups are extremely similar, but Ramirez is not the same hitter he was last year and Ethier does not hit lefties, who he could be facing in the first three games. If the Phillies are going to win this series they are going to have jump on the Dodgers early because there won't be any late inning comebacks against this Dodgers bullpen. In the same vein, I think Lidge could be OK. He will have you at the edge of your seats probably every time he pitches, but like last year, he will get the job done in the end. Even though Hamels has been average at best this season, he and Lee are about as good a 1-2 combination as there is in the league and that will be the difference for the Phillies this series.
Prediction: PHILLIES in SIX
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - NL East Champion; defeated Colorado, 3-1 NLDS
LOS ANGELES DODGERS - NL West Champion; defeated St. Louis, 3-0 NLDS
For the second straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers will battle for the right to represent the National League at the World Series when the best-of-seven NLCS gets underway on Thursday at Dodger Stadium.
Philadelphia, of course, needed five games to get past the Dodgers a year ago en route to its first World Series title since 1980.
The Phillies followed up their second-ever championship with their third consecutive NL East title, going 93-69 in the regular season.
Philadelphia, which is in this round for the eighth time in team history, started its title defense by beating the Colorado Rockies in four games. After splitting the first two games of the set in Philadelphia, the Phillies won the last two in Colorado, winning Game 4 in dramatic fashion, as they overcame a two-run deficit in the ninth to pull out a 5-4 win.
"We knew going into the ninth inning we had the right guys coming up at the top of the order and we had gotten to Street the night before. We knew we had a shot to make some things happen," stated Ryan Howard, who tied the game with a two-run double.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is back in the NLCS for the ninth time in team history after an impressive three-game sweep of the NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.
"We put all these games in the season, 162 behind us, we put these three behind us, and we're that much closer to achieving that goal (of winning the World Series)," Andre Ethier said. "This series behind us, this win, this clinch, just closer to our goal, which we stated day one of spring training, which was win the World Series."
Los Angeles led the NL West for most of the season, but did not clinch a division title until the final weekend of the season, despite finishing with an NL-best 95 wins.
The Dodgers also won back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1977-78.
These teams are also no stranger to one another in the postseason. In addition to last year's matchup, these teams have met on three other occasions. The Phils beat LA in 1983 to advance to the World Series, while the Dodgers defeated them the first two times they squared off (1977-78).
The Dodgers won the season series with the Phils, 4-3, as they took two of three at Citizens Bank Park and split the four games at Chavez Ravine.
LINEUP
There is no better lineup in the National League than that of the Phillies, who finished the regular season leading the league in runs (820), doubles (312), home runs (224), total bases (2,493), RBI (788) and slugging percentage (.447).
Of course, in the middle of it all is first baseman Ryan Howard, who had another incredible year at the plate, as he became just the fourth player in major league history (joining Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa) to have four consecutive 40 HR/130 RBI seasons.
Howard, who also had by far his best year defensively, finished the year with 45 home runs, 141 RBI with 105 runs scored, while hitting .279, his highest average since batting .313 in his MVP campaign of 2006.
Howard has carried his strong year at the plate into the postseason, as he went 6-for-16 with six RBI.
Howard wasn't the only one supplying the power, though, as Raul Ibanez (34 HR), signed this offseason to replace Pat Burrell, Jayson Werth (36 HR) and Chase Utley (31 HR) all went over 30 home runs on the season.
Werth also had a tremendous first round series against the Rockies, belting two home runs and knocking in four runs, while walking four times.
However, Philadelphia isn't just about the long ball, as the Phillies had four players go over 20 stolen bases this season with shortstop Jimmy Rollins leading the way with 31. Rollins (.250, 21 HR, 77 RBI), the 2005 NL MVP, didn't have his best year offensively, but still swiped a team-high 31 bases and scored 100 runs.
Of course you can't forget about center fielder Shane Victorino, who had six RBI in last year's NLCS and more often than not is in the middle of every big Philadelphia rally.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, got nowhere near the production from Manny Ramirez that it received last year. Of course, his 50-game suspension had something to do with that, but in the end he hit .290 with 19 home runs and 63 RBI.
Ramirez, though, always shines in October. In 103 games, he is a career .286 hitter with 28 home runs and 74 RBI. Last year in eight playoff games, the 2004 World Series MVP was 13-for-25 with four homers and 10 RBI.
However, he was just 4-for-13 with two RBI in the series against the Cards. In last year's NLCS Ramirez was 8-for-15 with two home runs and seven RBI.
In a way the Ramirez suspension may have been the best thing to happen to LA. Admittedly, the Dodgers began to rely a little to much on their slugger. With him out, players like Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp needed to step up and they did.
Ethier set career-highs with 31 homers and 106 RBI, while also having a flare for the dramatic, as his four walk-off home runs were the most since Washington's Roy Sievers did it in 1957
Ethier was the offensive catalyst in the Dodgers' win over the Cards, hitting .500 (6-for-12) with two home runs and three RBI. Ethier, though, hit just .194 against left-handers this season.
Kemp, meanwhile, will need to step it up in this series. He went hitless in his last eight at-bats of the regular season and was just 2-for-14 against the Cards.
At times the Dodgers seemed to be all or nothing, as they scored seven-plus runs in 42 games. On the other hand there was also 43 games where they crossed the plate two or fewer times.
EDGE: PHILLIES
STARTING PITCHING
Cole Hamels was charged with the loss in Game 2 of the NLDS, but you can't blame him if he may have had other things on his mind, as his wife went into labor during the contest. Hamels wasn't informed until after he was taken out following the fifth inning, but he surrendered four runs and seven hits.
The start was a sharp contrast to his performance in last year's postseason, when he nabbed both NLCS and World Series MVP awards. Hamels, who shut out the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on June 4, went 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against them in last year's NLCS.
Charlie Manuel has a decision to make with regards to Game 2. He could go with either righties Joe Blanton or Pedro Martinez, or he could go back to lefty J.A. Happ, who gave up three runs in three innings in Game 3 of the NLDS.
However, there is no question as to who will take the ball in Game 3, as left- hander Cliff Lee will get the call. Lee was magnificent for Philadelphia in his two starts against the Rockies, yielding just two earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.
Dodgers manager Joe Torre hasn't named a starter for Game 1 of this series, but he could go with 21-year-old lefty Clayton Kershaw.
He was terrific for the Dodgers in his NLDS start, as he held the Cardinals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings. But he did not factor in the decision, and regardless of how well he has pitched of late, he is still winless in his last 12 starts.
However, he has given up more than three runs just once since May 12.
Kershaw is also 0-3 lifetime against the Phillies with a 6.64 ERA in four starts.
If Kershaw goes in the first game, Randy Wolf will likely go in Game 2. Wolf won six of his last seven decisions in the regular season, earning him the start in Game 1 of the NLDS. However, he did not get out of the fourth inning in that one, as he allowed two runs, six hits and walked five batters in 3 2/3 innings of his first-ever postseason appearance.
Wolf, of course, is very familiar with Philadelphia. An original second round pick of the Phillies in 1997, Wolf pitched the first nine years of his career in Philadelphia.
He is just 1-1 in three starts against them with a 4.42 ERA.
Things could get interesting for the Dodgers in Game 3, as Hiroki Kuroda, who was left off the NLDS roster because of a neck injury, is apparently better. Kuroda went 8-7 with the Dodgers this season, but won three of his final four starts.
Kuroda has also pitched to a 0.95 ERA in three starts against the Phils and beat them in last year's NLCS.
Vicente Padilla will also be in the mix to start a game. Padilla, who also pitched five-plus years in Philly, continued his resurgence with the Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Cards, as he scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings.
Oddly enough the odd man out should Kuroda be active for this series could be All-Star Chad Billingsley, who won 16 games last year and led the Dodgers this year with 12, but has been awful and lost his last five decisions of the season.
EDGE: PHILLIES
BULLPEN
Philadelphia entered the postseason with perhaps the shakiest bullpen situation of all the postseason teams, specifically closer Brad Lidge. Despite blowing a league-high 11 saves during the season, though, Lidge saved both of his chances in the NLDS.
Lidge is still shaky, but at least he has restored a little bit of faith with the Philly Faithful.
However, should he falter, Manuel could turn to flame-throwing righty Ryan Madson, who was terrific in setting Lidge up, but was nothing special when thrust into the closer's role, as he himself blew six saves.
Left-hander Scott Eyre also got some important outs for Manuel against Colorado.
The Dodgers pulled off, perhaps, the most underrated move at the trade deadline in acquiring left-hander George Sherrill from the Baltimore Orioles. Sherrill, who had saved 51 games for the O's since the start of last year, has served as the perfect setup man for Jonathan Broxton, allowing just two runs and pitching to a minuscule 0.65 ERA in 30 games.
Broxton was 7-2 with a 2.61 ERA and ended the year with 36 saves.
Also expected to chip in for the Dodgers are righties Ramon Troncoso, Jeff Weaver and James McDonald, along with lefty Hong-Chi Kuo.
EDGE: DODGERS
MANAGERS
Torre, of course, is in the postseason for a record-tying 14th straight year and will be making is his ninth appearance in the LCS. His 83 postseason victories are more than any manager in baseball history.
Manuel, meanwhile, is back in the postseason for the third straight year with the Phillies and his fourth time overall as a manager. Manuel also led the Cleveland Indians to an AL Central title in 2001, but his team lost in five games in the ALDS to Seattle.
EDGE: DODGERS
BENCH
The main reserves for the Phillies are Ben Francisco, Greg Dobbs, Miguel Cairo and Matt Stairs. Bruntlett could be used late in games for his defense, while Stairs has become one of the most feared left-handed bats off the bench.
Los Angeles is very familiar with the heroics of Stairs, who hit a pinch-hit two-run home run to put the Phils ahead in Game 4 last season.
Some people were scratching their heads when the Dodgers picked up slugger Jim Thome in August. He has been used primarily as a pinch-hitter for the Dodgers, but had just four hits for them in 17 at-bats and did not have a home run.
Juan Pierre, who filled in admirably when Ramirez was suspended, leads the league with 12 pinch-hits since the All-Star break and in 49 pinch-hitting appearances is hitting .333 with two triples, five walks, nine runs scored and a .404 on-base percentage.
EDGE: DODGERS
PROGNOSIS
These teams are very evenly matched. Their lineups are extremely similar, but Ramirez is not the same hitter he was last year and Ethier does not hit lefties, who he could be facing in the first three games. If the Phillies are going to win this series they are going to have jump on the Dodgers early because there won't be any late inning comebacks against this Dodgers bullpen. In the same vein, I think Lidge could be OK. He will have you at the edge of your seats probably every time he pitches, but like last year, he will get the job done in the end. Even though Hamels has been average at best this season, he and Lee are about as good a 1-2 combination as there is in the league and that will be the difference for the Phillies this series.
Prediction: PHILLIES in SIX
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