Two betting lines show spread of public's wisdom
By Bill Ordine
Philly Inquirer Staff Writer
As many sports bettors know, point spreads and betting lines are first set by oddsmakers and then adjusted to reflect the wagering patterns of the public.
When betting is lopsided for one team, the line is adjusted to make the other team more attractive and, supposedly, even the wagering. Sometimes a dramatic point spread move represents the public's reaction to news, say an injury to a key player. Sometimes, the public is simply reacting emotionally to some overblown perception.
Yesterday, two point spreads reflected a big move from the opening line.
At the beginning of the week, Jacksonville was favored by 131/2 points over winless St. Louis. By game time, the line was 91/2, meaning that an inordinate amount of money had moved to the Rams. The public trend turned out to be right: The Jaguars needed an overtime field goal to win, 23-20, and failed to cover.
The other big shift was for the Detroit-Green Bay game. The Packers opened as 101/2-point favorites, but apparently enough Green Bay money showed up that the line was elevated to 14 by the end of the week. No problem. The Packers breezed, 26-0, again rewarding the public money.
Interestingly, tonight's game, Denver at San Diego, also has featured a healthy line move. The Chargers started as six-point favorites, but the line moved down to 31/2, reflecting public sentiment toward the undefeated Broncos.
Will the public be right again?
As they say in investment circles, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Narrowest of margins. Pittsburgh's 27-14 win over Cleveland was business as usual. The Steelers won their 12th in a row over the Browns after getting an early two-touchdown lead. Cleveland did get to within three points early in the second half, but Pittsburgh kicked it into gear and pulled away for the easy victory - unless one happened to be a Steelers bettor. Pittsburgh was giving 131/2 to 14 points.
In either case, the Browns were winners against the spread, and Steelers backers could only pull their hair out as Pittsburgh burned the last 4 minutes, 21 seconds playing keep-away with a ball-control drive.
Big Easy money. For the fifth time this season, New Orleans covered as a favorite. Undefeated in the standings and against the spread, the Saints crushed the New York Giants and the line by covering a three-point spread with an overwhelming 48-27 triumph. For a historical perspective, the Saints are beginning to resemble the 2007 New England Patriots, who ran the table in the regular season and demolished the spread along the way. That year, the Pats went 8-0 against the spread before the oddsmakers finally caught up with them.
By Bill Ordine
Philly Inquirer Staff Writer
As many sports bettors know, point spreads and betting lines are first set by oddsmakers and then adjusted to reflect the wagering patterns of the public.
When betting is lopsided for one team, the line is adjusted to make the other team more attractive and, supposedly, even the wagering. Sometimes a dramatic point spread move represents the public's reaction to news, say an injury to a key player. Sometimes, the public is simply reacting emotionally to some overblown perception.
Yesterday, two point spreads reflected a big move from the opening line.
At the beginning of the week, Jacksonville was favored by 131/2 points over winless St. Louis. By game time, the line was 91/2, meaning that an inordinate amount of money had moved to the Rams. The public trend turned out to be right: The Jaguars needed an overtime field goal to win, 23-20, and failed to cover.
The other big shift was for the Detroit-Green Bay game. The Packers opened as 101/2-point favorites, but apparently enough Green Bay money showed up that the line was elevated to 14 by the end of the week. No problem. The Packers breezed, 26-0, again rewarding the public money.
Interestingly, tonight's game, Denver at San Diego, also has featured a healthy line move. The Chargers started as six-point favorites, but the line moved down to 31/2, reflecting public sentiment toward the undefeated Broncos.
Will the public be right again?
As they say in investment circles, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Narrowest of margins. Pittsburgh's 27-14 win over Cleveland was business as usual. The Steelers won their 12th in a row over the Browns after getting an early two-touchdown lead. Cleveland did get to within three points early in the second half, but Pittsburgh kicked it into gear and pulled away for the easy victory - unless one happened to be a Steelers bettor. Pittsburgh was giving 131/2 to 14 points.
In either case, the Browns were winners against the spread, and Steelers backers could only pull their hair out as Pittsburgh burned the last 4 minutes, 21 seconds playing keep-away with a ball-control drive.
Big Easy money. For the fifth time this season, New Orleans covered as a favorite. Undefeated in the standings and against the spread, the Saints crushed the New York Giants and the line by covering a three-point spread with an overwhelming 48-27 triumph. For a historical perspective, the Saints are beginning to resemble the 2007 New England Patriots, who ran the table in the regular season and demolished the spread along the way. That year, the Pats went 8-0 against the spread before the oddsmakers finally caught up with them.
