HORSE RACING

[Lumi]

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA

By Richard Eng

Post Time 1 p.m.

Race 1 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $40,000, Maiden special weights, Cal-breds, 2-year-olds

Tribal Fire - Exiting a much tougher stakes races for this simple MSW; tactical speed to sit a nice trip.

Cabo Chico - Solid debut when favored in an 8-horse field; expect Jerry Hollendorfer babies to improve with racing.

Long Shot - High Success

Race 2 - 1 mile, Purse $24,000, Starter allowance $40,000, 2-year-olds

Ranger Heartley - Rafael Bejarano had choices and lands here; could be lone speed in his first 2-turn route race.

Litecorr - Among three exiting their maiden claiming graduation; key for me is Garrett Gomez taking the call.

Long Shot - Swiss Exploit

Race 3 - 5 furlongs, Purse $17,000, Maiden claiming $32,000, Fillies, 2-year-olds

Fast Wanda - In a race this awful, I'm inclined to go with a FTS; need not be much from the Doug O'Neill barn.

Spool's Gold - Was well bet in debut despite finishing fourth; need not improve much to get a piece of this.

Long Shot - Gorky's Secret

Race 4 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $14,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, 3-year-olds and up

Barbaric - Speedy sort is likely to play catch me if you can; respect live runners from the Ron Ellis barn.

Elusive Destiny - Been away 15-months, but has been working a long time for this; has some ability to rally late.

Long Shot - Joys Last One

Race 5 - 6 1/2 furlongs (turf, rail at 30 feet), Purse $37,000, Claiming $62,500, Fillies, 3-year-olds

Salty Sarah - Speed to lead or sit close up to the pace; will like the turf rail out a maximum 30 feet today.

Coatcheck Girl - Claimed by John Sadler, he has an uncoupled entry in here; proven to be better on sod than synthetic.

Long Shot - Dash Dot Dash

Race 6 - 5 1/2 furlongs, Purse $14,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, 3-year-olds and up

Ol'dogtown - Square price on a horse that ran fast enough to win this two races ago; shot in a wide open affair.

Rincewind - Been second three times in a row; runs consistently fast enough to be a part of the number again.

Long Shot - Kalookan Heat

Race 7 - 1 1/2 miles (turf, rail at 30 feet), Purse $47,000, Optional claiming $80,000, 3-year-olds and up

Itsnotjustagame - Improving horse got derailed in the Del Mar; like the fact he is not on a downward cycle.

Obrigado - Also exits a defeat in the Del Mar; old time has lost a step and this is the start of his descent.

Long Shot - On Fire

Race 8 - 7 furlongs, Purse $18,000, Claiming $25,000, 3-year-olds and up

Major Smoke - Dead late closer has improved a lot since claimed by Paul Aguirre; figures to see a fast pace to chase.

Abalanche - Been away 10-months, but has a ton of back class; exits some bullet workouts, watch the tote board.

Long Shot - Pick to Click

Best Bet - Major Smoke (race 8)

Santa Anita Sunday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 18/5/$22.00; Long Shots, 8/0/$0; Best Bet, 1/1/2.80

Santa Anita Totals - 264/67/$429.40; Long Shots, 133/23/$247.60; Best Bets, 16/9/$37.20

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #4 Mr. Madison (5/1) race 1 at Belmont Park. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Sunday, Soda Pop Kid was scratched at Belmont Park. Stats - 152/113/$856.50

 

[Lumi]

At the Gate - Wednesday

At the Gate - Wednesday

At the Gate - Wednesday
October 21, 2009


The Breeders? Cup Classic lost two more contenders as Rail Trip and Gitano Hernando will both skip the race their connections reported yesterday.

Trainer Ron Ellis said Rail Trip has had foot problem since running third in the Pacific Classic (G1) last month.

Ellis told the Daily Racing Form, ?"I think we'll shut him down. He probably needs about a week or five to seven days to walk."

Rail Trip has won six of his nine starts for earnings of nearly $800,000, and could have been a factor in the Classic.

All of his starts coming over synthetic surfaces including three victories over the Santa Anita Pro Ride.

Gitano Hernando, the upset winner of the Goodwood Stakes (G1) will also skip the Classic according to Barry Irwin of Team Valor International.



Irwin said he thinks the Goodwood took too much out of his runner, and now Team Valor will point him toward the $10 million Dubai World Cup next March.

It will be the first Dubai World Cup run at the new Meydan Race Course, which had the synthetic surface Taepta installed.

Two more Classic contenders down has to be good news for the Zenyatta camp.

I have been saying all along that owner Jerry Moss and trainer John Shirreffs likely will end up heading back to the Ladies? Classic unless there are a few defections.

Adding these two to the mix and I?m now thinking we might see her face the boys after all.


Here is today's opening race from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:05 ET)
#1 Final Ending / #1a Patti's Kitten 7/2
#11 Hooten Town Hill 4/1
#8 Show Trial 5/1
#5 Venice Beach 6/1

Analysis: #1 Final Ending was beaten double digit lengths in both of his starts but now drops back in for a tag and tries poly for the first time. Last out the gelding tracked the early pace along the inside before weakening to finish seventh on the turf at the Spa versus maiden special weight company. The winner Bridgetown came back to win the Summer (G3) in his next outing at Woodbine on Sept. 19. The runner up Billions Boy graduated in his next start, then ran 11th in the Bourbon (G3). The gelding popped a bullet work over the surface here on Oct. 17. The gelding is out of a Kris S. mare that has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Romacaca (5 for 9, $163K).

His entry mate is in the Maker barn and is making his debut. #1a Patti's Kitten is by Kitten's Joy (12% winners with debut runners) out of a Chimes Band mare that has dropped three foals to race, all winners, top earner stakes winner Dawn of War ($409K). Decent looking works on the morning tab for a high % barn that is light with firsters, hitting at a 8% clip.

#11 Hooten Town Hill was a good second last out at Ellis on dirt behind repeat winner D'clever Cat, who came back to beat $25K non winners of two on Oct. 14 at Hawthorne. The gelding gets a jock upgrade from a seven pound bug to Albarado.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 1,11 / 1,5,8,11
TRI: 1,11 / 1,5,8,11 / 1,5,6,7,8,11

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 Athenia S. G3 (4:38 ET)
#6 Cable 6/1
#5 Namaste's Wish 4/1
#4 Belle Allure 6/5
#7 Kristi With a K 5/1

Analysis: #6 Cable tries stakes company for the first time here off a fourth place finish versus Alw-2 foes off a three month break. The Dynafomer filly makes just her fourth start this year and earned solid numbers in a second and a third at the Alw-2 level. The filly is a half to Exchange Rate ($479K), still looks like she has a ton of upside and this is not a real deep field considering it?s a Grade 3.

#5 Namaste's Wish beat Alw-3 optional claimers in a game win by a neck. Two back she came up a neck shy behind Quiet Harbor, who came back to win the Violet (G3) in her next outing on Oct. 10 at the Big M. She is a half to Purge ($905K). #4 Bella Allure is going to be a light price in here despite coming up short in a restricted stake at the Spa last out. She looks tough in this spot but we can't get too excited about backing her at close to even money.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 8 Alw $54,000N2X (4:42 ET)
#1 Silver Mountain 5/1
#2 Laureate Conductor 3/1
#9 Thabazimbi 5/2
#4 Hidden Glance 6/1

Analysis: #1 Silver Mountain is coming off a third place finish in the Ky Cup Turf (G3) over good ground at today's marathon distance. I liked his effort two back a bit more, a third place finish in the restricted Johns Call at the Spa. He caught some traffic while down along the inside on the far turn and finished well when angled to the outside for the stretch drive. He is in good hands with the Proctor barn that is 3 for 10 at the meet and this guy seems like a bargain, purchased for just $2,700 back in '06.

#2 Laureate Conductor is a stakes winner at nine furlongs and will be trying 1 1/2 miles for the first time here. He was off poorly last out in the Kent (G3), made a middle move and faded in the stretch to finish fifth. He gets some class relief here, but not sure pedigree wise whether this guy can get the added ground.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,9
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,9 / 1,2,4,6,9,12

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R4: #1 Flowering Mesa 12/1
R5: #3 Askbut I Won?ttell 10/1
R5: #2 Queen of Victory 10/1
R7: #5 Hapitano 8/1
R9: #10 Monty Cat 10/1

Belmont Park
R2: #1 Cuvee?s Girl 12/1
R2: #2 Cottage Industry 30/1
R3: #5 Beresford 10/1
R4: #4 Tickle Monster 12/1
R9: #4 Masterofthehouse 8/1

Good luck today!

 

[Lumi]

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Belle Allure (8th race)


First Race


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1. Independence War 2. Lord Snowdon 3. Dragon Fi

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INDEPENDENCE WAR won local bow for $10k, won just as easily when doubled in price off the claim and is raised again after being claimed for a second time; "now" horse can join the 40% win club, clearly loves this track. LORD SNOWDON was in tough off a three-month layoff vs. Cherokee Country, who had beaten Biker Boy (5 for 8 after winning here Saturday) start prior; six of last eight wins with Dominguez up. DRAGON FI split rivals with a good rally in return going 6fs on the inner course - where early speed has had the advantage this meet; claimed, back on dirt.

Second Race


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1. Picnic Rock 2. Lyrical Bobcat 3. Cuvee's Girl

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PICNIC ROCK is hard to recommend off a 34 Beyer figure...until one comes to the realization that's the best last-out figure in the race by 13 points; trouble vs. N2L repeater First Flute in that race. LYRICAL BOBCAT stumbled at the start and trailed throughout vs. top one 19 days ago; stretch runner was in the money five straight before that. CUVEE'S GIRL is a half-sister to five winners, three of which have earned better than $80k including Chief Tashmo (see 9th race).

Third Race


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1. Precious Package 2. Birdrun 3. Nowhere to Hide

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You can't ever tell if horses will stretch out successfully until they do it, but PRECIOUS PACKAGE indicated that he has that potential after making up 3 1/2 lengths into a final furlong in 12.10 seconds first back from a long layoff; breezed nicely last week. BIRDRUN comes off a gutsy effort battling from start to finish vs. Ruffino, who is 7 for 11 and eyeing Saturday's Empire Classic; also in tough two back vs. odds-on Lowther Street. NOWHERE TO HIDE has had a couple months off and was in a few tough spots earlier this year; close to a 1:09-and-change pace here in June.

Fourth Race


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1. Lion Cub 2. I've Heard Rumors 3. Take a Vow

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LION CUB split horses and finished well to get second in debut vs. a loose-on-the-lead favorite; similar late-running tactics may play better stretching out to 7fs on the Widener. I'VE HEARD RUMORS is a half-sister to two multiple winners, among them R Last Installment, a maiden and N1x winner on turf in New York for these connections. TAKE A VOW drops from special-weights after an even try vs. pacesetting STRAIGHT A STUDENT; either or both may factor at this level.

Fifth Race


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1. Bobs Pinup Girl 2. Inter Galactic 3. Hogan Beach

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BOBS PINUP GIRL won back-to-back starts on good and soft turf here in early summer, and has been freshened since running in two Spa routes from outside posts; working regularly at 5fs. INTER GALACTIC loves rain-softened turf, and has won twice this year off similar layoffs; main concern is whether there's enough pace to set up her late run. HOGAN BEACH takes a significant class drop after an even try vs. Namaste's Wish, who is in today's Athenia; third start of form cycle.

Sixth Race


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1. Out Nice Them 2. Badgette 3. Basketwoman

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OUT NICE THEM began career with two dirt races in six days last October, and got back to those figures when brought back this summer, albeit on grass; Dominguez sticks for the class drop. BADGETTE finished gamely for second vs. 3-5 Crazy Charlie last out; back with fillies. BASKETWOMAN has been working right along for high-percentage trainer; needn't be much to make presence felt at first asking.

Seventh Race


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1. Khukuri 2. Mr Sandman 3. Live On the Edge

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KHUKURI drops 50% in price, and also moves from open to restricted claiming after meeting Midnite Silver (3 for 4 this year) in first start vs. winners; overcame trouble to win maiden with Maragh two back. MR SANDMAN plummets from Grade 1 Jamaica, bypassing another try at the N1x level or even $50k ranks; suspicious dropper will get some pressure from THE PLOT THICKENS early. LIVE ON THE EDGE was under a firm hold early, finished evenly into last three-eighths in 35.37 seconds first try against this kind; best figure came on yielding turf.

Eighth Race


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1. Belle Allure 2. Sunshine for Life 3. Kristi With a K

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BELLE ALLURE didn't get much pace to run at as Leamington wired overnight stake last out, and found 1 1/4 miles beyond her range two back, but impressed winning first start for Clement this course and distance in May; handled soft going to win a Group 3 in France over, among others, Proviso, first-place finisher in recent Grade 1 Spinster. SUNSHINE FOR LIFE wired this race at 23-1 off a similar freshening last year; working well, key is whether ROLLICKING AFFAIR runs with her early. KRISTI WITH A K produced a career-best 97 Beyer on yielding turf at Belmont four races back; recent rains could be a plus.

Ninth Race


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1. Rabbitoutofmyhat 2. Persian 3. Sydney Road

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RABBITOUTOFMYHAT has won five in a row on firm, good and soft turf, and under various pace setups; main question is whether he can handle a stretchout from 5 1/2 furlongs. PERSIAN has the look of an "unofficial" main track only, after a good-figure win in the slop just last Friday. SYDNEY ROAD prevailed with a four-wide rally this course and distance when claimed closing weekend at the spring/summer meet; clear second last out vs. odds-on Winthrop House. SKYEBAY lit up the board at 47-1 going 7fs on the Widener in July; third back from layoff after two throwout races on dirt.

 

[Lumi]

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, Oct. 21

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, Oct. 21

Jeremy Plonk's Keeneland Keys for Wednesday, Oct. 21
What to Watch for Today: Canadian Triple Crown classic race winner Perfect Shower is among a field of 12 in today?s Race 8 allowance feature. But before we open Week 3, it?s best to look back at the week that was.

The public got much more dialed in during Week 2, as you?d expect when a fresh meet begins to settle. While favorites were only 4 for 24 (17%) on Polytrack opening week, that number rose to 12 for 41 (29%) last week. The average winner dropped from a big opening week number of 11.86-to-1 odds to 7.44-to-1 last week.

The Polytrack remained remarkably consistent in sprints last week, with the average winner 1.18 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile (when you kick out the one biggest closer), an identical stat shown during week one. And when you look at all-time Polytrack routes, the average winner has been 3.25 lengths back after a half-mile. Last week, the average winner was ? you guessed it ? 3.25 lengths back. The deep closers who dominated week one route races gave way to a very representative number that we?ve seen over the Poly era.

Weather: Gorgeous weather greets the action to open Week 3 as sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-60s are in the forecast. The turf course should be as firm as it?s been all meeting.

Sidelight: Keeneland?s ultra-slick Trakus technology reported this past week that the Spinster disqualification of Proviso may have been a foregone conclusion. The electronic tracking system showed that Mushka was moving 38 mph at the time she was bumped by Proviso, who was traveling only 36 mph. Trakus projects that Mushka would have run by and won by 1-1/2 lengths in daylight if all maintained a straight course. Interesting stuff as we look ahead to a potential Breeders? Cup rematch of those in the Ladies? Classic.

Polycapping 101: In this section, we?ll get race and horse specific to help your handicapping.

Our first maiden claimer at 7 furlongs of the meeting takes place in the Wednesday opening race. Don?t over-emphasize experience at the distance as 16 of the 30 all-time Poly races in this situation have been won by horses coming out of races shorter than 7 furlongs. Experience does matter, though, as 28 of 30 winners had at least one prior outing (firsters won just 2 of 30).

Kentucky Downs invaders have won 2 of the 4 high-dollar claimers held so far this meeting ($40,000-$75,000), so No Fault deserves an extra look in Race 2. In fact, more KD winners have appeared at this level all-time (5) than from the NYRA circuit (3).

Trying Brian runs back on 7 days? rest off a victory Oct. 14. We?ve never seen a fall meet winner wheel back and win in that quick of a turnaround. The shortest ?run-back? winners from the 2006 and 2007 fall meets were 10 days. Last fall, it was 14 days. There was one 6-day run-back winner during the ?08 spring meet and a 7-day run-back winner during the ?09 spring.

We get just the 11th dash at 5-1/2 furlongs in the Polytrack era in Race 3. Seven of the previous 10 winners were within a length of the lead after the opening half-mile and only one winner closed from more than 2 lengths back at that juncture. It doesn?t look like a spot to be fishing for deep closers historically.

Trainer Ken McPeek owns a record 7 Polytrack wins in maiden claiming races, including one already this meeting. He?ll send out first-time starter Involved in Race 4, a $40,000 maiden claimer. Tom Proctor has won 3 races for a maiden tag all-time and saddles Flowering Mesa.

Of the 6 turf races held during Week 2 of the meet, all 6 were won by horses within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile, while 4 of the 5 turf route winners were even closer, within 1-1/2 lengths of the front at that juncture. Keep that pace profile in mind as you handicap today?s Race 5 and 8 allowance heats on the grass.

In 1-1/16 miles races this season, more than 76 percent of the winners (16 of 21) raced at least a mile or longer last time out. Retool and Tempo Approved would have to buck that trend in Race 6 this afternoon on the stretch-out. Cuban Missile also tries to extend his sprint form in the Race 7 allowance co-feature at this distance.

Feature Race Play: We get a massive field of 12 routing the marathon trip of 1-1/2 miles on the turf in Race 8 today. Surprisingly for all his success on the Keeneland turf, Bill Mott has not won a 1-1/2 miles grass race here since the fall 2006 meeting, and perhaps more. He saddles 5-2 morning line favorite Thabazimbi.

Jockeys Robby Albarado (4) and Julien Leparoux (4) have the most wins at this marathon turf trip since the ?06 fall meeting, and they ride Hidden Glance and Laureate Conductor, respectively. Hidden Glance was a winner here last fall at the trip and course under Albarado in allowance conditions, but has not won since. Certainly the pedigree of Hidden Glance screams 12 furlongs more so than Laureate Conductor.

The pace ought to be controlled by Thabazimbi, making him a tough out in the stretch. I?ll look for Hidden Glance and Silver Mountain to come running, but neither likes to seal the deal. Given Mott has won 16 turf routes at Keeneland since the ?06 fall, most of any trainer, it?s a statistical anomaly to me that he hasn?t won at 1-1/2 miles.

That fact stops here as Thabazimbi gets the right trip with an easy pace and tops my exactas over Hidden Glance and Silver Mountain.

 

[Lumi]

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 21

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 21

Mike Battaglia's picks for October 21
10/21/2009
1st Race
FINAL ENDING (#1) faded after showing speed last out at Saratoga in a race where the first two finishers came right back to win next out. He has trained well since coming back to Kentucky and rates the edge in the opener. HOOTEN TOWN HILL (#11) ran well last out at Ellis and jockey Robby Albarado picks up the mount today. HAITIAN HERO (#6) is a definite contender.

2nd Race
ISLAND WARRIOR (#3) has been running against better and returns to Keeneland, where he is a perfect 3 for 3 on the Polytrack. He appears to be in a good spot to extend that streak today for trainer Cody Autrey and jockey Jamie Theriot. TRYING BRIAN (#2) also loves this track. He moves up a notch in class after a sharp score and is the one to beat. TEMPO FIVE (#1) can?t be overlooked in a tough claiming test.

3rd Race
LINSALATA (#8) is winless in seven starts since coming to the United States but drops to a career-low claiming level today. Give her the slight edge in an extremely well-matched sprint. ROCK HARD CANDY (#4) has finished first or second in ten consecutive races and is the one to beat. BLUE SATIN SASH (#3) is a solid contender.

4th Race
MY LADY A.P. (#11) was stuck behind a wall of horses and forced to drop to the back of the field in her last race at Woodbine. She closed well when clear and was beaten just a nose for third in that one. Give her the edge for new trainer Chuck Peery, who adds Lasix for her Kentucky debut. BRAIN TRUST (#4) posted a bullet work over the Keeneland strip and figures to be the one to beat. INVOLVED (#9) makes her debut for leading trainer Ken McPeek and has to be respected.

5th Race
CADES BAY (#11) was an impressive winner in her first try on the grass at Monmouth, and that race came after an eight-month layoff. She has trained well since shipping to Kentucky and looks best with jockey Julien Leparoux picking up the mount for trainer Barclay Tagg. SATIN THUNDER (#8) has been off since May but the Ken McPeek charge will be running at the end in a race that should have a lively pace. CHOICE PLAY (#12) is a solid contender.

6th Race
WEST COURT (#4) was no match for Cades Bay last out but just missed the runner-up spot in that one. She has been knocking on the door and appears to be in a good spot to get her maiden win today. JOYOUS (#11) beat the top pick at Saratoga and trainer Rusty Arnold?s horses have been running very well lately. AQUITAINE (#10) fits with these.

7th Race
CLIFFY?S FUTURE (#1) couldn?t catch the odds-on favorite last out at Arlington but ran well to finish second in that one. He was good enough to win the Rushaway earlier this year at Turfway and looks best in his third start back after the layoff. SR. HENRY (#3) ran a big race when last seen at Gulfstream back in February. He is training well for his return and anything close to that one makes him tough to beat. HAPITANO (#5) rates a chance.

8th Race
THABAZIMBI (#9) has been competitive in graded stakes races and won an allowance race in his only try over the Keeneland turf. He looks like a good bet to handle this field for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Kent Desormeaux. LAUREATE CONDUCTOR (#2) takes on the older runners and tries the mile-and-a-half distance for the first time but still figures to be the main competition for the top pick. GROUND FROST (#6) can definitely handle the distance and is a contender.

9th Race
LINEBACKER (#9) looked good winning last out on the dirt at Delaware. He probably prefers that surface but still rates the slight edge in another well-matched race. PRINCE TETON (#12) posted a recent bullet work at Churchill and drops to a career-low claiming level. He will be running at the end and will like the seven-furlong distance. NEWPORT (#3) fits at this level.

 

[Lumi]

Bill Howard

Bill Howard

Bankroll Bets 10/21/09
10/21/2009
Bankroll Bets for Wed 10/21/09

$25 Players:
$2 win/place/show on Cliffy's Future in race 7 cost: $6.00
$1 Exacta box in race 5 cost: $6.00
Cades Bay, Bills Presence, Choice Play
50-cent Pick 4 in races 2, 3, 4 & 5 cost: $12.00
Race 2--Island Warrior, Tempo Five
Race 3--Zephyr Ice, Linsalata
Race 4--My Lady A. P., Brian Trust, Involved
Race 5--Cades Bay, Bills Presence
total cost: $25.00

$50 Players use top bets plus:
$5 win/place/show on Silver Mountain race 8 cost: $15.00
$1 Pick 3 in races 5, 6 & 7 cost: $18.00
Race 5--Cades Bay, Bills Presence
Race 6--West Court, Fantasy Sky, Tempo Approved
Race 7--Cliffy's Future, Sr. Henry, Successful Mission

50-cent Trifecta box in Race 8 cost: $12.00
Silver Mountain, Thabazimbi, Hidden Glance, Perfect Shower

$5 to win on Island Warrior in race number 2 cost: $5.00
total cost: $50.00
$100 Players use $25 & $50 bets plus:

50-cent Pick 4 in races 6, 7, 8 & 9 cost: $48.00
Race 6--West Court, Tempo Approved, Fantasy Sky
Race 7--Cliffy's Future, Sr. Henry,
Race 8--Silver Mountain, Thabazimbi, Hidden Glance, Perfect Shower
Race 9--Linebacker, Checksandbalances, Prize Master, Bad Jenna Lee

$1 Exacta box in Race 8 cost: $2.00
Silver Mountain and Thabazimbi
total cost: $100.00

 

[Lumi]

Kim Nelson's Picks for Wednesday, October 21

Kim Nelson's Picks for Wednesday, October 21

Kim Nelson's Picks for Wednesday, October 21
10/21/2009
Keeneland's feature for Wednesday is an allowance race for three year olds and upward going 1 1/2 miles over the grass course. Lexington is expecting sunshine and warmer tempertures so the turf course should be considered firm. According to Jeremy Plonk's "Keys to Keeneland" 22 of the last 26 1 1/2 mile turf races have been won by horses who raced over turf last time out. Also, 4.4 to 1 are the average winning odds at this distance over the course. While Perfect Shower's odds will likely be higher than the average winner at this distance, he still looks to be a threat. He improved dramatically last out going this distance at Woodbine. The competition may not have been as strong as a few of his rivals have faced recently but he looks to be an improving sort and has the pedigree. Thabazimbi is also a winner at the distance and comes over for the formidable team of Mott and Desormeaux. The colt was 3rd in his last out with Grade 2 company. Laureate Conductor is a consistent runner and comes over fresh. The distance may be a question for him.

Kim Nelson's Picks for Wednesday, October 21
10/21/2009
$27.80 Bankroll

$2 Daily Double
1st Final Ending
2nd Island Warrior
Cost $2

Race 3
.50 Trifecta Box
Blue Satin Sash, Rock Hard Candy, This Smoke Did It
Cost $3

Race 4
.10 Superfecta Box
Involved, Negril, Invitation, Baby Bopp
Cost $2.40

Race 5
.50 Trifecta Box
Askbut I Won'ttell, Cades Bay, Bill's Presence
Cost $3

Race 6
.50 TrifectaBox
Joyous, Liz Hunter, West Court
Cost $3

Race 7
$2 across the board
Tizthemaninthemoon
Cost $6

Race 8
$2 across the board
Perfect Shower
Cost $6

Race 9
.10 Superfecta Box
Monty Cat, Linebacker, Newport, Checksandbalances
Cost $2.40

$89 Bankroll

$2 Daily Double
1st Final Ending
2nd Island Warrior
Cost $2

Race 2
$1 Pick 4
2nd Island Warrior
3rd Blue Satin Sash, Rock Hard Candy, This Smoke Did It
4th Involved, Negril, Invitation
5th Askbut I Won'ttell, Cades Bay, Bill's Presence
Cost $27

Race 3
$1 Trifecta Box
Blue Satin Sash, Rock Hard Candy, This Smoke Did It
Cost $6

Race 4
.10 Superfecta Box
Involved, Negril, Invitation, Baby Bopp, Sheer Beauty
Cost $12

Race 5
$1 Trifecta Box
Askbut I Won'ttell, Cades Bay, Bill's Presence
Cost $6

Race 6
$1 Trifecta Box
Joyous, Liz Hunter, West Court,
Cost $6

Race 7
$5 to win and place
Tizthemaninthemoon
Cost $10

Race 8
$5 to win and place
Perfect Shower
Cost $6

Race 9
.10 Superfecta Box
Monty Cat, Linebacker, Newport, Checksandbalances, Prince Teton
Cost $12

$137 Bankroll

$2 Daily Double
1st Final Ending
2nd Island Warrior
Cost $2

Race 2
$1 Pick 4
2nd Island Warrior
3rd Blue Satin Sash, Rock Hard Candy, This Smoke Did It
4th Involved, Negril, Invitation
5th Askbut I Won'ttell, Cades Bay, Bill's Presence
Cost $27

Race 3
$1 Trifecta Box
Blue Satin Sash, Rock Hard Candy, This Smoke Did It
Cost $6

Race 4
.10 Superfecta Box
Involved, Negril, Invitation, Baby Bopp, Sheer Beauty
Cost $12

Race 5
$1 Trifecta Box
Askbut I Won'ttell, Cades Bay, Bill's Presence
Cost $6

Race 6
$1 Trifecta Box
Joyous, Liz Hunter, West Court,
Cost $6

Race 6
$1 Pick 4
6th Joyous, Liz Hunter, West Court, I Know Better, Culver Coed, Aquitaine
7th Tizthemaninthemoon, Sr Henry
8th Perfect Showers, Thabazimbi
9th Monty Cat, Linebacker
Cost $48

Race 7
$5 to win and place
Tizthemaninthemoon
Cost $10

Race 8
$5 to win and place
Perfect Shower
Cost $6

Race 9
.10 Superfecta Box
Monty Cat, Linebacker, Newport, Checksandbalances, Prince Teton
Cost $12

 

[Lumi]

Keenland Handicapper's Consensus

Keenland Handicapper's Consensus

Keenland Handicapper's Consensus

 

[Lumi]

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009

I don't have the time today to go thru all the Oak Tree Cappers HT and others who view these posts

A new week begins with four of the eight races maiden affairs. Let?s try to pick our spots and concentrate on the races that offer some value.

Unfortunately, the first two races offer little. Any one of three can win the opener - #2 Tribal Face; #4 Cabo Chico and #6 Twenty Hawks all have a right to be competitive in a soft field ? so this is a good one to pass. The second race finds #6 Ranger Hartley listed at 7/5 on the morning line, and if he can project his sprint form around two turns, he?ll handle this task but, again, offers no value.

We?ll begin our action in the third race using #1a Spool?s Gold as a rolling exotic single. The Puype-trained filly finished evenly after a bit of a rough journey in her only outing at Fairplex Park and seems sure to improve a ton with that race under her belt. She may not be super quick but even at this abbreviated distance of five furlongs, the daughter of Freespool should be within range early and then take control when ready in a lackluster race for the level.

#5 Barbaric looks like a single in the fourth race as well. The Touch Gold gelding drops to the bottom maiden claiming ranks, has a bullet work since ran, retains Valdivia, and basically has nothing to beat. That?s why he?s 6/5 on the morning line.

We?ll double the fifth race with #4 Salty Sarah and #9 Coatcheck Girl, using them both in our rolling exotics and in an exacta box as well. Salty Sarah moves up a notch following a fourth place effort down the hill in what was a fairly strong race for the level. She?s come back to work well for Bell, retains Gomez, and should be prominent throughout in a field lacking in early speed. Coatcheck Girl has solid figures for this league, switches to Rosario and is strictly the one to beat in her first off the claim for Sadler (21%, flat-bet profit with this angle). This looks like an ideal trip for her stalking style.

Somebody will win this sixth race, I?m not sure who. It?s a bottom rung maiden claiming sprint and if you?re playing the rolling exotics, use as many as you can afford to. There?s not a trustworthy soul in the group.

The seventh race is a 12 furlong turf marathon and brings out #3 Itsnotjustagame and #8 Buenos Dias, both of whom have shown a liking for this distance in the past. The former removes blinkers after being overmatched in the Del Mar Handicap and seems sure to perk up in this softer spot. He?s winless over the course but seems a better type now and has run well for Smith in the past. He?s 9/2 on the morning line and that seems about right. Buenos Dias is a non-winner in this country but finally get his distance and a repeat of his French form would be more than good enough to win. At 7/2 on the morning line, he?s our top pick, but we?ll use them both in our rolling exotics.

I can find three main contenders in the eighth race. #5 Major Smoke has improving numbers for Aguirre and won?t have to make much of a forward move today to get the money. Talamo should have him rolling late. #6 Stayonit got a confidence builder at Pomona with a big figure bullring score and warrants a big look right back despite the barn switch. Comebacker #8 Abalanche once had some real promise but obviously has big issues. The recent works indicate fitness, though, and at this level he must be respected.

 

[Lumi]

Post experts pick the winners

Post experts pick the winners

Post experts pick the winners

Belmont

 

[Lumi]

Belmont park analysis

Belmont park analysis

Belmont park analysis

Post Time: 1:00 pm. All horses appear in post position order





Today's analysis.

1. 6 1/2f; $38,000; cl($35,000); 3up

LORD SNOWDON drew rail for return to claiming ranks after tiring at Philadelphia. He won previous start for a claiming tag. INDEPENDENCE WAR came off the pace to win as favorite and was claimed in last two starts. TODD GOT EVEN drops in class for first start since July.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Lord Snowdon(L),120 R Dominguez 4-1-3 ADutrow 4-1
2 Clemens(L),120 R Maragh 1-3-1 Chatterpaul 15-1
3 Independence War(L),120 J Velazquez 1-1-4 Galluscio 3-1
4 Mr. Madison(L),120 C Hill 2-8-3 Contessa 5-1
5 Super Shape(L),120 J Castellano 10-7-1 Levine 5-1
6 Dragon Fi(L),120 J Lezcano 3-6-2 Ramos 10-1
7 Todd Got Even(L),120 C Velasquez 4-1-2 Zito 5-2

2. 6f; $16,000; mdn cl($16,000); 3up; (f&m)

PICNIC ROCK cuts back in distance after closing to finish second at this level last out. LYRICAL BOBCAT cuts back in distance after a troubled start and tiring badly this level. PAY THE FARE drops in class after tiring badly in seasonal debut for new barn.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Cuvee's Girl,113 A Casey x-x-x Campo 12-1
2 Cottage Industry(L),120 J Espinoza 6-4-8 FMartin 30-1
3 Lyrical Bobcat(L),120 J Chavez 9-2-3 PKelly 2-1
4 Karakormsweetheart(L),120 S Morales 12-8-4 Odintz 6-1
5 Pay the Fare(L),120 M Luzzi 6-8-6 Rossi 12-1
6 She's Runnin' Wild(L),120 R Rodriguez 10-10-x Feron 30-1
7 Dynamic Kip(L),123 G Richards 7-7-6 Hosang 50-1
8 Rosary Beads(L),123 V Santiago 12-9-11 Shevy 20-1
9 Picnic Rock(L),120 R Maragh 2-3-8 Barbara 6-5

3. 1 1/16m; $46,000; alw; 3up

BIRDRUN switches to Dominguez after finishing second in his last two starts. PRECIOUS PACKAGE makes route debut after closing to finish second by neck as favorite in seasonal debut. NO WHERE TO HIDE finished fourth in the slop while going longer in most recent.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Nowhere to Hide(L),117 C Velasquez 4-6-5 Zito 5-2
2 Almighty Silver(L),120 J Espinoza 2-5-6 POrtiz 10-1
3 Precious Package(L),117 E Prado 2-1-3 RDutrow 9-5
4 Birdrun(L),117 R Dominguez 2-2-1 William Mott 2-1
5 Beresford(L),120 J Velazquez 3-4-6 Turner 10-1
6 Dreamed Day(L),120 R Maragh 5-3-7 Lobo 15-1

4. 7f; $28,000; mdn cl($50,000); 2YO; (f)

TAKE A VOW cuts back in distance and drops in class after running evenly in turf debut. LION CUB makes route debut after closing to finish second this level in career debut. NEVER DREAM drew the rail and drops in class after tiring in route debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
3 Never Dream(L),120 C Velasquez 9-2-8 Toner 6-1
4 Tickle Monster(L),120 E Castro 9-x-x Ritvo 12-1
5 Take a Vow(L),120 J Castellano 5-6-3 McGaughey III 7-2
1 a-Kittylicious(L),120 M Luzzi 6-7-5 Sciacca 8-1
6 Settling Seas(L),120 J Velazquez 10-5-x Duggan 15-1
2 b-Blazing Honor,120 J Bravo x-x-x Tagg 5-1
7 Desirable(L),120 C Hill 8-x-x Hills 20-1
2B b-I've Heard Rumors,120 R Dominguez x-x-x Tagg 5-1
8 Lion Cub(L),120 R Maragh 2-x-x Clement 5-2
1A a-Loyal Shadow(L),120 E Prado 10-8-6 Sciacca 8-1
9 Straight A Student(L),120 J Espinoza 7-4-5 Contessa 6-1

5. 1 1/16m(T); $34,000; cl($25,000); 3up; (f&m)

TALENTED PRINCESS makes local return and switches to Dominguez after coming off the pace to win last three starts. DOU BLE DINGHY DAY drops in class for first start since running evenly in June at Delaware. HOGAN BEACH showed some closing ability in return to turf.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Boxitup(L),121 C Velasquez 7-7-4 Bush 15-1
2 Debbie's Fast Girl(L),121 C Hill 4-2-1 Contessa 12-1
3 Talented Princess(L),121 R Dominguez 1-1-1 Walder 9-2
4 Hogan Beach(L),118 J Lezcano 5-4-1 Matz 7-2
5 Bobs Pinup Girl(L),121 J Velazquez 5-9-1 Dutrow 10-1
6 Double Dinghy Day(L),121 J Castellano 5-4-1 Alexander 3-1
7 Elena's Princess(L),121 E Castro 3-3-3 Arroyo 20-1
8 Bella Attrice(L),121 E Prado 7-3-2 Brown 4-1
9 Inter Galactic(L),121 J Espinoza 6-1-3 Parisella 6-1
10 Blue Hill Bay(L),121 V Santiago 6-1-2 Everett 8-1
11 McVictory(L),118 R Maragh 1-7-1 Barbara 5-1

6. 6f; $16,000; mdn cl($16,000); 3up; (f&m)

OUT NICE THEM faces maiden claimers for the first time and goes turf to dirt after tiring in first start for new barn. BAD GETTE drew the rail after closing to finish second this distance and level. BASKETWOMAN races with Lasix and shows steady works for career debut.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Badgette(L),123 R Fuentes 2-4-6 Toscano 5-2
2 Out Nice Them(L),123 R Dominguez 8-6-5 Ritvo 4-1
3 Authentic Shot(L),120 M Luzzi 7-x-x Duggan 12-1
4 Moon Drop(L),120 J Velazquez 3-5-6 O'Brien 9-2
5 Jen's Dream,123 M Studart x-x-x Caetano 20-1
6 Best Decision(L),113 A Serpa 7-6-x Rojas 15-1
7 Being Queen(L),123 R Rodriguez 8-9-6 Shevy 30-1
8 Kim Karakorum(L),120 S Morales 6-6-x Odintz 10-1
9 Basketwoman,120 R Maragh x-x-x Maker 3-1

7. 1 1/16m(T); $24,000; cl($25,000); 3up

CHINESE WHISPER drew the rail for local return after closing to finish second as the favorite this distance and level. LIVE ON THE EDGE closed to be beaten three lengths going longer in first start since breaking maiden. KHUKURI drops in class after tiring in first start since breaking maiden.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
2 Chinese Whisper(L),121 E Castro 2-6-2 RDutrow 6-1
3 Live On the Edge(L),118 R Dominguez 6-1-2 Tagg 8-1
4 Burnished Copper(L),121 E Prado 6-10-9 Bush 15-1
5 The Plot Thickens(L),118 J Lezcano 9-5-2 CMartin 10-1
6 Brad's My Hero(L),118 J Bravo 1-2-3 Hennig 15-1
1 a-Cardiff Road(L),121 C Velasquez 3-6-8 DiSanto 10-1
7 Last Noble(L),118 M Luzzi 4-10-1 Badgett 20-1
8 Mr Sandman,120 J Castellano 6-5-1 AJerkens 5-2
9 Khukuri(L),120 R Maragh 7-1-4 Clement 6-1
10 Smart Enuf(L),121 J Velazquez 2-2-7 Donk 4-1
11 Hint(L),121 S Morales 8-5-2 Morrison 15-1
1A a-Wishingonadream(L),120 M Luzzi 9-1-2 DiSanto 10-1
12 Bold Vindication(L),118 R Maragh 2-6-5 Gullo 6-1
13 Carry the Day(L),121 J Chavez 11-9-4 Contessa 20-1
14 Interference(L),114 K Fox 6-4-8 Friedman 30-1

8. 1 1/16m(T); $100,000; 3up; (f&m) Athenia Stakes

BELLE ALLURE makes US graded stakes debut after closing to finish second in restricted stakes this distance. SUNSHINE FOR LIFE set the pace and tired while going longer in July. ROLLICKING AFFAIR makes turf debut while seeking her third consecutive victory.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Miss Lombardi(L),116 J Rose 1-5-12 Motion 12-1
2 Rollicking Affair(L),116 D Whitney 1-1-2 Progno 20-1
3 Sunshine for Life(L),120 J Velazquez 6-6-4 Schosberg 6-1
4 Belle Allure(L),120 R Dominguez 2-3-1 Clement 6-5
5 Namaste's Wish(L),116 J Bravo 1-2-4 Mott 4-1
6 Cable(L),116 C Velasquez 4-2-3 Clement 6-1
7 Kristi With a K(L),116 J Lezcano 1-3-4 Tagg 5-1
8 Don't Forget Gil(L),120 R Dominguez 5-5-2 Hennig 8-5
9 Tidal Dance(L),118 4-6-1 Hushion 3-1

9. 7f(T); $25,000; cl($25,000); 3up

PERSIAN returns to turf after winning as the favorite in both starts since being claimed. SYDNEY ROAD drew the rail after finishing second going shorter in return to turf. RABBITOUTOFMY HAT stretches out for local debut and seeks sixth consecutive victory. MASTEROFTHEHOUSE was beaten two lengths in last start this claiming price.

PN Horse Wt. Jockey Last 3 Trainer Odds
1 Sydney Road(L),117 R Maragh 2-7-7 Tannuzzo 3-1
2 Persian(L),117 J Velazquez 1-1-8 RDutrow 7-2
3 Chief Tashmo(L),120 R Rodriguez 5-9-7 CJohnson 50-1
4 Masterofthehouse(L),120 S Morales 7-4-5 JOrtiz 8-1
5 Admiral Bird(L),120 J Castellano 10-9-8 Alexander 12-1
6 Press Only(L),120 J Bermudez 10-6-5 Gullo 15-1
7 Calagaitor(L),120 J Chavez 9-6-7 Domino 20-1
8 Skyebay(L),120 J Espinoza 9-7-7 Tesher 12-1
9 Wonderous Day(L),120 M Studart 10-6-10 Terracciano 15-1
10 Rabbitoutofmyhat(L),118 R Dominguez 1-1-1 Allen 2-1
11 Knife and Fork(L),113 A Casey 7-10-7 Quick 20-1
12 Wicked Climb(L),117 4-5-8 Contessa 15-1
13 Don Misil(L),120 J Lezcano 9-8-5 Peitz 12-1
14 Golden Caesar(L),120 J Chavez 5-4-7 PKelly 20-1
15 Geno Green(L),117 R Maragh 1-3-7 Brown 4-1
16 Greatbillsoffire(L),117 R Dominguez 2-4-3 Orseno 6-1

 

[Lumi]

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

Cold, cloudy; track was sloppy, sealed; no turf racing again; 27 scratches. Not a great day for chalk-players, either: In succession beginning in second race, 3-5, even-money, 3-5, even-money, 2-1, 7-5 and 2-1 favorites bit the mud. In fact, none of them even came close.
Turn Away, a 4-5 favorite in the $65,000 Top Secret overnight stakes for fillies and mares at seven furlongs, finally snapped that streak, sweeping from off pace under Ramon Dominguez to splash home a neck in the front of 11-1 Are We Dreamin, with 9-5 JZ Warrior nose back in third. Turn Away, a 4-year-old daughter of Empire Maker from Bobby Frankel barn, is 2-for-2 over wet tracks.

SECOND RACE: After winning the opener with 7-5 choice Lyke a Hurricane, a 5-year-old gelding that was winless since Saratoga 2008, Ramon Dominguez looked to sweep the daily double with odds-on Unwritten, dropping into 16G starter handicap off four straight stakes appearances at Monmouth. African King, 5-1 going for his fifth win in last six starts, dashed to the front under Jorge Chavez, stalked outside by Unwritten, who bid for the lead turning for home. But in top of the stretch, African King kicked clear again, enhancing Jorge Chavez's, a.k.a. Chop Chop, reputation as a top off-track rider, while Unwritten pooped out to finish fourth.
THIRD RACE: Rock Hall Honey, who flashed speed at short prices in her first two races earlier this year, was even-money making her first start since April for John Terranova. She gunned to a daylight lead under John Velazquez, chased by Qualia, Ride On Josephine and Star Orchid. Qualia, 5-1 debuting for Bobby Ribaudo off steady work tab dating back to June, emerged from that pack around the turn, went after Rock Hall Honey top of stretch, struck the front midstretch and drew clear under Rajiv Maragh.
FOURTH RACE: Allen Jerkens' Formidable, beaten two lengths by some formidable sprinters last out in the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland, was odds-on in this allowance optional claimer, shot right to the front under Rajiv Maragh and opened daylight. He was cruising along around the turn when 9-2 Laysh Laysh Laysh, claimed by Chip Dutrow for 25G after posting five-length win for David Jacobson, circled the field, collared Formidable in top of the stretch and blew right on by to take command midstretch. Formidable then failed to hold second over Mt. Glittermore.
SEVENTH RACE: Another winner for Chavez on 2-year-old filly Comic Marvel, Juddmonte Farm stablemate of Turn Away, making her first start for Frankel, who's overseeing his horses from his home in Calfornia. Comic Marvel was dismissed at 20-1 despite 12 published workouts dating back to June. The homebred daughter of Distorted Humor settled in far off the pace duel between Don't U Baby Me, a 7-5 favorite for Pletcher-Velazquez after finishing second in her debut at Monmouth, and 8-5 Bashoosha, who set pace, finished third first time out for Kiaran McLaughlin at Saratoga. Those two were overtaken midstretch by Wild News, Ramon Dominguez up, who looked home free until Comic Marvel, next-to-last turning for home, finished like a runaway freight train down center of track to blow by Wild News in final strides.
PICK SIX
Winning numbers: 5-11-4-5-4-1a
No winners
Consolation (5 of 6) paid $1,334
Carryover: $32,022