Fading the Public

[justin22g]

I don't know if anyone else has been doing this, but my plan is to keep up with it each week and keep a win/lose percentage.

The public won a lot of money yesterday (except for Zona and the under hitting last night).

My plan is to only fade the public in plays that are 75% or higher.

I might increase the bet if the public is 85% or higher.

So if its 75-85% on one side, it will be a 1 unit play, if its 85% or higher, it will be a 2 unit play.

Once again, if someone else is doing this I would like to coattail and not have to keep up with all of this... I haven't been visiting madjack's much because i've been extremely busy... but in the past i have made some $ by fading the public.

I will use this thread to keep up with the win percentage and total units won (not counting juice)

My plan is to also keep up with this in College foots

Tonight's plays are:

Redskins +8.5 (85% on eagles) 2 unit LOSE -2.2
Redskins under 37.5 (83% on Over) 1 Unit LOSE -1.1 Unit

Total 0-2 -3.3 units

 

[tulah]

I wouldn't touch a Under on MNF seems like it always goe's over... On Sundays I think your strategy will work out to be profitable....On MNF
I'd say Over is is a popular bet every week....
so far the Over in MNF games this season is 6-1...
Last season was crazy too on MNF lots of over's came in :mj06:



GL tonite:mj06:

 

[justin22g]

I wouldn't touch a Under on MNF seems like it always goe's over... On Sundays I think your strategy will work out to be profitable....On MNF
I'd say Over is is a popular bet every week....
so far the Over in MNF games this season is 6-1...
Last season was crazy too on MNF lots of over's came in :mj06:



GL tonite:mj06:

Yeah I know... and I have been the over the majority of the time.

I am not playing big units... just beer and pizza money only! I need to quit drinking and eating pizza anyways :shrug:

But I have been playing against the public for a long time, but haven't kept a record of it. My variance in Betting amt is drastic too, and in order for this to be profitable I need to keep them the same.

I wish I would have started this at the first of the season, but we'll see how the last half plays out.

 

[justin22g]

Also, should I change the unit amount?

Lets say
75-85% - 1 unit
85%-90% - 1.5 unit
90%+ - 2 unit

OR keep it the same
75-85% - 1 unit
85%+ 2 unit

 

[tulah]

I know someboday doing the same for yrs....
He doe's well every season......

I will keep track of this thread and fade along with u......

Only problem is most site's that have a consensus
are very limited info and likely only a few books..
Some pay site's have a bigger offering of consensus for more books....I guess to be really successful you would need lots of INFO ...


GL

 

[justin22g]

I know someboday doing the same for yrs....
He doe's well every season......

I will keep track of this thread and fade along with u......

Only problem is most site's that have a consensus
are very limited info and likely only a few books..
Some pay site's have a bigger offering of consensus for more books....I guess to be really successful you would need lots of INFO ...


GL

I agree, but I'm not going to pay for the consensus haha

I have been using this site (can't post the URL) for years and have done well with it.

IMO, it gets really hot and then goes cold, especially in college foots. I plan on riding these out

 

[wlmackey]

What percentages do you use???

Where do you get them from???

 

[justin22g]

I get them from a pay site (although the consensus is free).

I can't post the site's name... it will get edited out by admin

 

[justin22g]

I am going to start an excel spread sheet that will make the calculations easier. I will post the plays to this spread and then post the win/lose %.

 

[Hugh Jass Nutz]

I'm showing 79% on the spread and 82% on the total. Are you going by the public numbers at game time or the public numbers when you place your bets? Just curious if your numbers will chane up til gametime. :shrug:

 

[HUDSON]

I don't think this system is going to make you much $$$...I've tried something similar in the past and all it did was basically break even. You might come out a little ahead, but not much. I remember both sides would go in mini streaks of winning/losing. It didn't hit at a high % consistently. GL though....

 

[HUDSON]

I don't know if anyone else has been doing this, but my plan is to keep up with it each week and keep a win/lose percentage.

The public won a lot of money yesterday (except for Zona and the under hitting last night).

My plan is to only fade the public in plays that are 75% or higher.

I might increase the bet if the public is 85% or higher.

So if its 75-85% on one side, it will be a 1 unit play, if its 85% or higher, it will be a 2 unit play.

Once again, if someone else is doing this I would like to coattail and not have to keep up with all of this... I haven't been visiting madjack's much because i've been extremely busy... but in the past i have made some $ by fading the public.

I will use this thread to keep up with the win percentage and total units won (not counting juice)

My plan is to also keep up with this in College foots

Tonight's players are:

Redskins +8.5 (85% on eagles) 2 unit
Redskins under 37.5 (83% on Over) 1 Unit

I hope you go 2-0 tonight...but, I bet you go 1-1.
I'll be watch'n.....Vegas happy if they break even cuz they make the "juice" money while players lose $$.

 

[Hugh Jass Nutz]

74% on spread now :shrug: no bet :shrug:

 

[Trizzle]

I remember reading a thread either here or at another site. A guy had tracked this theory for 18 months or so in all sports and found no advantage. It wasn't conclusive because no one knows how good the number on the percentages really are. Only the man running the book knows.

I have also tried the theory myself in college basketball using consensus numbers with very mixed results. I can tell you from my personal experience that the value is far less on nights when there is only one game. It seemed that sometimes there are "gifts"- plays that are obvious and win, and vice-versa on single game nights. Bottom line is that there is not a pattern for making money.

 

[LDB]

gl tonight justin

 

[justin22g]

I had class tonight so I couldn't check the #'s. Theres usually late $$$ going on one side and it changes the %s.

I usually go by what I see when I check them (a couple hours before kick usually).

I might not play every single play that I post, but I will still track it.

If anyone knows a good consensus site that pools in a couple of the online books, that is preferably free, I would love to use it in order to get conservative #s that aren't so skewed.

Right now its not looking so good for tonight, but its a marathon!

 

[justin22g]

and I just created the spreadsheet. I will be including the vig in it(standard 10%). However, since these plays will be heavily loaded on the other side, the majority of them will be discounted to 5%.

If anybody can think of a better way to do this, please let me know! I am only playing a small amount on this to see how well this does over the long haul.

I have been using a site that only takes %s from sportsbook.com. I know this is a small sample size, but I have done well using it in the past, so I will stick to it unless someone else has a better site with a larger sample size

 

[justin22g]

I remember reading a thread either here or at another site. A guy had tracked this theory for 18 months or so in all sports and found no advantage. It wasn't conclusive because no one knows how good the number on the percentages really are. Only the man running the book knows.

I have also tried the theory myself in college basketball using consensus numbers with very mixed results. I can tell you from my personal experience that the value is far less on nights when there is only one game. It seemed that sometimes there are "gifts"- plays that are obvious and win, and vice-versa on single game nights. Bottom line is that there is not a pattern for making money.

I totally agree with you. No one ever knows the "true" consensus, but I am curious to see how this fairs over the long haul.

 

[utesfootball]

I have been betting for 8 years now and heard of numerous systems. Tried the martingale system....got my ass handed to me, tried this for a few seasons and like ppl are saying, it cannot consistently win. I will save you the time of doing the spreadsheet, if this could win people would be all over it. It does hit some hot streaks, but also goes extremely cold for a few weeks. I easily lost 60+% of bankroll in 2 weeks doing this a few years back. I still pay for percentages from a few sites because It helps other capping methods, but simply betting like this will make you so little it will not be worth your time. If you like wathing sports that much get a job in a sports book and get paid $10/hour to watch games, because it is more than you will make doing this.

Regression analysis is beneficial....learn how to do it and test past results. (The only time I ever use my Econ degree)

 

[justin22g]

I have been betting for 8 years now and heard of numerous systems. Tried the martingale system....got my ass handed to me, tried this for a few seasons and like ppl are saying, it cannot consistently win. I will save you the time of doing the spreadsheet, if this could win people would be all over it. It does hit some hot streaks, but also goes extremely cold for a few weeks. I easily lost 60+% of bankroll in 2 weeks doing this a few years back. I still pay for percentages from a few sites because It helps other capping methods, but simply betting like this will make you so little it will not be worth your time. If you like wathing sports that much get a job in a sports book and get paid $10/hour to watch games, because it is more than you will make doing this.

Regression analysis is beneficial....learn how to do it and test past results. (The only time I ever use my Econ degree)

Well, I'm a nerd on excel and I knocked the spreadsheet out... I'm still going to follow this and post the results, I will be playing very small on this, if I even play them at all.. I will still make some other bets as well, and some might go with the public, but I will still keep up with this.

I'm just curious about it