NBA TUE 110309 early thoughts - value hunting

pistol495

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My initial lean was the other way in this game. Cleveland finally has all of their pieces back, and Mo Williams looked like his old self on saturday. It took them a few games to get the pieces working, but i think they win this one handily. The line seems high, and imho its begging for money on the Wiz. Vegas knows the public is acknowledging this new and improved wizards team. I had capped it (and please be aware i havent been doing this for as long as some of the big boys here *cough ax cough*) somewhere in the neighborhood of 101-84.

just my 2 cents, would love to hear other opinions.

Agree - CLE's first game after West's first start. They didnt cover that game either. Think they only improve. First half is a good play here too. CLE still looking for their first cover at home (half or game). Right?
 

axp59

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What do you guys think of this 5 point teaser tonight: Denver-1 and Boston-2.5??

This is only one man's opinion sir.

Don't do it. In the long run, teasers yield negative results and harms your overall money management plan. Bet one or both but don't create artificial dependencies without added value.

IMHO.
 

M__J

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yeah 0-2 ats so far this year at the Q after going 27-16 last season. I think the key in this game is the Wiz tho. They have not made an effort to improve on the defensive end, they have been simply outscoring opponents. They will not be able to do that tonight vs CLE. They will be guarded like they havent all season, and while Gil may get his 27, it could take 25-30 shots to get there.
 

composite

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My initial lean was the other way in this game. Cleveland finally has all of their pieces back, and Mo Williams looked like his old self on saturday. It took them a few games to get the pieces working, but i think they win this one handily. The line seems high, and imho its begging for money on the Wiz. Vegas knows the public is acknowledging this new and improved wizards team. I had capped it (and please be aware i havent been doing this for as long as some of the big boys here *cough ax cough*) somewhere in the neighborhood of 101-84.

just my 2 cents, would love to hear other opinions.

Thanks for the other side. Who's actually back? Delonte? Anyone else?

Has LV adjusted the line for Wiz? I think they are much better than last year.
 

axp59

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My initial lean was the other way in this game. Cleveland finally has all of their pieces back, and Mo Williams looked like his old self on saturday. It took them a few games to get the pieces working, but i think they win this one handily. The line seems high, and imho its begging for money on the Wiz. Vegas knows the public is acknowledging this new and improved wizards team. I had capped it (and please be aware i havent been doing this for as long as some of the big boys here *cough ax cough*) somewhere in the neighborhood of 101-84.

just my 2 cents, would love to hear other opinions.

M__J, have we been on the same side at all this season? There's always a first. I'm with on on this one buddy!
 

M__J

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No prob, likewise.

In pieces i meant West first off, and then Mo williams returning to form after what was a terrible start. We knew it would take some time to get shaq, moon, and parker into the rotation effectively, and i think 4 games is enough to start to expect the offense to start to show the flow that it did last season with cleveland's core unit.

And the line is actually adjusted from last season, in 2 home games CLE was -16 and -16.5 respectively vs WASH.
 

composite

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You locked comp?

Yeah, but I want to know if I should add to it. OTOH, if I've made a ghastly error, I'm not so pigheaded that I'll stick w/ bad bets. If it's really, really a horrible prop, I'll eat the vig and check out something else.
 

axp59

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Also leaning to POR. Line is telling me something as well as the defensive focus from them Sun day night and their strong defensive play in both home games to date.

Pistol

Liking this @ -6.5. loving it @-6 if that's even possible now. BOL
 

axp59

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Yeah, but I want to know if I should add to it. OTOH, if I've made a ghastly error, I'm not so pigheaded that I'll stick w/ bad bets. If it's really, really a horrible prop, I'll eat the vig and check out something else.

Bro, I hear ya. It's no secret I'll buy back a bet if things change overnight. BOL man.
 

axp59

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:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour

It means im doing somethin right!!

LMAO, :mj07:

either we're going to the window together or doing a Mexican hat dance over ripped up tickets together.

my best wishes bud :D
 

granpa

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How you been doing this early in the season granpa?

Up a little which is always a good thing. Work & home have been a bit hectic since the season opened, thus not much play time.

You've been nailing all the boards the past few days, congrats. I did tail your Minny line last night, thank you. I see you nailed the MLB over for the 3rd straight night as well. :00hour
 

easterntimezone

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Washington has for the last couple of seasons been the Cavs' nemesis - hobbled last year, they didn't fare too well, but the year before proved to be an extremely difficult opposition for Cleveland (also the same year that they played Boston tough late in the season in Massachusetts).

The coach may have changed and Saunders is no offensive slouch - the players have remained intact for the most part and DeShawn Stevenson likely still has a simmering feud w/ James; don't know if the Wizards can actually eke out a victory, but beating up on Minnesota and Charlotte doesn't actually qualify as having come together and gelled (as in the case of Cleveland) - Washington may indeed be able to keep it w/in 6 2 pointers/4 3 pointers w/ ease.
 

axp59

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just trying to make a living grandpa.

i do this every so often so I'll do it now.

I give thanks to Mr. Lau, the man who trained my eye to spot a whacked number. Rest in peace my dear old friend.

Motivates me each time to kill the books when I think about him. He hated books and touts. Now you know why I do too. :142smilie
 

40seven

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Totals

Totals

I like the great side discussions and have enjoyed the plays, but what about some totals for tonight.

I see Dallas Over any views

and

What about the Denver Indy game I actually cap it under and the number is rising.

Ax? Anybody?
 

axp59

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Washington has for the last couple of seasons been the Cavs' nemesis - hobbled last year, they didn't fare too well, but the year before proved to be an extremely difficult opposition for Cleveland (also the same year that they played Boston tough late in the season in Massachusetts).

The coach may have changed and Saunders is no offensive slouch - the players have remained intact for the most part and DeShawn Stevenson likely still has a simmering feud w/ James; don't know if the Wizards can actually eke out a victory, but beating up on Minnesota and Charlotte doesn't actually qualify as having come together and gelled (as in the case of Cleveland) - Washington may indeed be able to keep it w/in 6 2 pointers/4 3 pointers w/ ease.

Brought me back to earth. Always insightful fundamental analysis. Let me add this from a friend in CLE: that the CAVS are already considering this a statement game. Poor LBJ and his buddies don't be liking what people are saying about their piss-poor team. Now whether they can do anything about it or not is another story. This is where we come in. We get to cast our votes with our hard earned greenbacks.

Cast you votes everyone!
 

axp59

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I like the great side discussions and have enjoyed the plays, but what about some totals for tonight.

I see Dallas Over any views

and

What about the Denver Indy game I actually cap it under and the number is rising.

Ax? Anybody?

As I'm capping and posting, this has all the signs of being the POD.

just one man's opinion.
 
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