HORSE RACING

[Lumi]

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA

By Richard Eng

Post Time 11:15 a.m.

Race 1 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $75,000, Optional claiming $40,000, 3-year-olds and up

Singer Island - Bob Baffert enters BC week as the hottest trainer on the grounds; regarded enought to run in stakes.

Deal Breaker - Mike Mitchell is improving this import; only surprise is he's putting him in for a price tag.

Long Shot - Royal Punisher

Race 2 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $75,000, Optional claiming $40,000, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Stunningly - Beaten favorite should see a sizzling pace to chase; the extra ground can only help Garrett Gomez.

Miss McCall - I don't usually like a horse off a MSW win, unless they show something; filly was good from post 10.

Long Shot - North Rodeo

Race 3 - 1 3/4 miles, $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon, 3-year-olds and up

Mastery - Exits a win in the group 1 St. Leger to face these; huge improvement since joining Saeed bin Suroor yard.

Father Time - Chased Mastery last time in the St. Leger; the Euros appear to tower over the U.S. contingent.

Long Shot - Man of Iron

Race 4 - 1 mile (turf), $1-million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, Fillies, 2-year-olds

Smart Seattle - Got to the lead too soon in last, nailed in the last stride; bred to love sod and go long, value at 8/1.

Lillie Langtry - Logical chalk is another strong Euro contender; she will sit in arrears and make one big brush.

Long Shot - Junia Tepzia

Race 5 - 1 1/16th miles, $2-million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Fillies, 2-year-olds

She Be Wild - Talented filly got the lead too soon in the Alcibiades; Julien Leparoux is as patient as they come.

Always a Princess - Beaten favorite in the Oak Leaf can turn the tables; tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Long Shot - Negligee

Race 6 - 1 1/4 miles (turf), $2-million Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Pure Clan - Flattered when Criticism easily won the Long Island next out; may be the best 1 1/4 mile horse in the race.

Forever Together - Logical chalk has not been as dominating as last year; she will be tested facing a good field.

Long Shot - Rutherienne

Race 7 - 7 furlongs, $1-million Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Ventura - Her Woodbine Mile move was an awesome last to first win; if she repeats that race, she'll win today too.

Informed Decision - Classic east versus west duel with Ventura; she is a perfect 6-for-6 wins over synthetic tracks.

Long Shot - Seventh Street

Race 8 - 1 1/8th miles, $2-million Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Careless Jewel - The theory that lone early speed is the best bet in racing will be tested here; catch her if you can.

Music Note - She has been beating better fillies in NY than Zenyatta in SoCal; will sit midpack and fire fast late.

Long Shot - Rainbow View

Race 9 - 1 mile, $200,000 Las Palmas Handicap, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Teamgeist - Good third in the grade 1 Spinster points to a live long shot; 11-of-13 in the money on grass.

Tizaqueena - Solid second at Keeneland to Diamondrella who runs in the BC Turf Sprint; tactical speed to sit a trip.

Long Shot - Captain's Lover

Best Bet - Ventura (race 7)

Santa Anita Thursday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 15/5/$53.80; Long Shots, 8/2/$27.00; Best Bet, 1/0/$0

Santa Anita Totals - 455/125/$767.00; Long Shots, 228/36/$386.40; Best Bets, 27/13/$51.20

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #3 Muhaaseb (1/1) in race 2 at Aqueduct. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Thursday, Charging Hero won at Aqueduct paying $3.20 to win, $2.30 to place and $2.10 to show. Stats - 161/119/$909.90

 

[Lumi]

At the Breeders' Cup - Friday

At the Breeders' Cup - Friday

At the Breeders' Cup - Friday
November 6, 2009

It?s Ladies? Day at the Breeders? Cup (well, except for the Marathon), and it may be tough to top last year?s opening day at the Breeders? Cup where Zenyatta stole the show with an impressive victory in the Ladies? Classic.



This year she will take on the boys in Saturday?s $5 million Classic, and she won?t be the only female missing today.



The brilliant four year old filly Goldikova will race on Saturday, defending her title in the Mile against the boys.



In addition Dar Re Mi (Turf) and Fleeting Spirit (Sprint) have good shots of beating the boys tomorrow.


Three females take on the boys in the Turf Sprint: Gotta Have Her, Diamondrella, and Canadian Bullet,



While some talented females will wait until Saturday, Friday?s card is excellent, with a couple of wide open two year old races, and we get to witness Forever Together (Filly & Mare Turf) and Ventura (Filly & Mare Sprint) attempt to win back to back Breeders? Cup races.



The final Breeder?s Cup race today is the Ladies? Classic, which features a very interesting showdown between Careless Jewel and Music Note.



The two fillies will vie for favoritism, but don?t overlook Rainbow View, who was second in the E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine on the grass last out, or Cocoa Beach, Life is Sweet, and Proviso.



As you can see below, I am giving Rainbow View the edge, as she likely is going to offer more value for the top spot than the two likely betting favorites.



There is a daily double combining the Ladies? Classic with tomorrow?s Classic, which has the potential of producing a nice payoff.



With all the hoopla today, let?s not forget there is still racing at the Big A.





Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:



AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500N1Y (12:30 ET)

#2 Ruff and Ready 5/2

#1 Hedge Fund 6/1

#3 The Vin Man 2/1

#6 Hey Now 3/1



Analysis: #2 Ruff and Ready checked in a decent third last out at this level, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for the top spot. The seven year old saved ground in the early going and swung out wide and made a good late run. Two back in his first go for the barn off the claim he was seventh against open $20K claimers. The winner of that race was Adagio, who came back to win his next two starts, last out beating $35K claimers on Nov. 4. He was going long on the turf in his previous four starts and figures to move forward off his last sprint try. He does have three in the money finishes in five starts at the trip.



#1 Hedge Fund was off a step slow, was rushed up to prompt the early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish fourth and 4 3./4 lengths back of our top pick. Draws the rail today and owns decent enough early and mid pace numbers. This guy has a habit of landing in the bottom half of the exacta and has done exactly that in half of his ten starts over the main track here and a dozen times in his career. It could be more of the same here in this spot.



Wagering

WIN: #2 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3,6

TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6,7



Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:



AQU Race 8 Alw $50,000s (3:48 ET)

#9 Elegant Bess 6/1

#4 Loxy Lady 10/1

#6 Goldie Lane 7/2

#3 Boxitup 3/1



Analysis: #9 Elegant Bess was not much of a threat last out trying state bred stakes company, checking in seventh in a race in which the winner and fourth place finisher came back to win next out. The filly was a good looking Alw-1 winner two back going 5 1/2 furlongs over soft footing. It looks like she finds an easier spot here and while both of her turf wins have come sprinting, she has plenty of pedigree to handle the extra ground. She is by Victory Gallop out of a Touch Gold mare. She is lightly raced compared to most of these and still appears to have some upside potential.



#4 Loxy Lady raced in traffic on the far turn and rallied strongly to beat $35K non winners of two last out. The effort was flattered when the third and fourth place finisher came back to win next out. The mare has landed in the exacta in 5 of 9 starts on the turf and her 10/1 ML looks generous.



Wagering

WIN: #9 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 4,9 / 3,4,6,9

TRI: 4,9 / 3,4,6,9 / 2,3,4,6,7,9



Today's Featured Race of the Day from Oak Tree at Santa Anita:



SA Race 8 BC Ladies' Classic G1 (3:45 PT)

#8 Rainbow View 6/1

#7 Music Note 9/5

#1 Careless Jewel 2/1

#6 Cocoa Beach 8/1



Analysis: #8 Rainbow View gets the call here in her second start since arriving in North America. She found the last furlong too tough last out in the E.P. Taylor (G1). She took over the lead briefly with a furlong to go but could not hold off Lahaleeb, who is a Group 2 winner overseas and missed winning the Irish 1000 Guineas by a neck. Our top pick was beaten 2 1/4 lengths by Midday and in July was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths when fourth behind Goldikova. She tries Pro Ride for the first time for the Gosden barn that won last year's Classic with Raven's Pass and won the Juvenile Turf in '08 with Donativum. The trainer must have liked Leparoux's ride last out, calling Jimmy Fortune and telling him to stay home and take the day off. Fortune rode this gal in her first ten starts. She looks like the value of the race if we catch most of the 6/1 ML.



#7 Music Note looked sharp winning the Beldame (G1) last out at Belmont Park and earned a career top speed fig in the effort. The runner up in the race as Unbridled Belle, who came back to win the Turnback the Alarm (G3) in her next outing on Oct. 31. Her lone try on a synthetic surface came in this race last year where she was third, beaten three lengths by Zenyatta and 1 1/2 lengths behind runner up #6 Cocoa Beach. The filly has never been better and put in a couple of smart works over the surface here. She is going to be tough but expecting to see around 8/5.



#1 Careless Jewel comes in here riding a five race win streak. Her maiden and Alw-1 wins came over poly at Woodbine. She draws the rail and figures to be loose on the lead here. There are a couple on here that can keep her honest early and if Landry can't rate this gal in the early going she could be in deep waters late. She just has the look of an underlay in here.



Wagering

WIN: #8 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 7,8 / 1,6,7,8

TRI: 7,8 / 1,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8



Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.



Aqueduct

R3: #12 Quechee 15/1

R4: #1 Ravenous 8/1

R5: #6 System Restore 30/1

R8: #4 Loxy Lady 10/1



Oak Tree at Santa Anita (Breeders? Cup)

R1: #3 Riviera Cocktail 15/1

R1: #6 Deal Breaker 8/1

R1:#1 Green Card James 8/1

R2: #10 Toro Bonito 8/1

R3: #1 Black Astor 12/1

R4: #10 Tapitsfly 8/1

R4: #11 Junia Tezpia 8/1

R4: #12 Lisa?s Kitten 12/1

R7: #3 Game Face 10/1

R8: #6 Cocoa Beach 8/1

R9: #2 Captain?s Lover 8/1

R9: #10 Tuscan Evening 8/1



Good luck today!

 

[Lumi]

Breeders' Cup - Entries & Odds

Breeders' Cup - Entries & Odds

Breeders' Cup - Entries & Odds

Friday Nov. 6

Horses (Jockey) Odds

Breeders' Cup Marathon

1. Black Astor (Solis) 12-1
2. Muhannak (IRE) (Moore) 12-1
3. Nite Light (Velazquez) 4-1
4. Cloudy's Knight (Homeister) 8-1
5. Father Time (GB) (Ahern) 3-1
6. Mastery (GB) (Dettori) 9-5
7. Sir Dave (Rosario) 20-1
8. Eldaafer (Bejarano) 30-1
9. Man of Iron (Murtagh) 8-1
10. Gangbuster (Desormeaux) 30-1


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

1. Potosina (Velazquez) 20-1
2. Elusive Galaxy (IRE) (Bejarano) 12-1
3. Smart Seattle (Rose) 8-1
4. Rose Catherine (Castellano) 8-1
5. La Nez (Smith) 20-1
6. Jungle Tale (Bridgmohan) 15-1
7. House of Grace (Luzzi) 4-1
8. Lillie Langtry (IRE) (Murtagh) 3-1
9. Hatheer (Garcia) 10-1
10. Tapitsfly (Albarado) 8-1
11. Junia Tepzia (IRE) (Fallon) 8-1
12. Lisa's Kitten (Leparaoux) 12-1
13. Dad's Crazy (Dominguez) 15-1
14. In the Slips (Gomez) 12-1



Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)

1. Zilva (Rose) 30-1
2. Ms Vanenzza (Rocco, Jr.) 30-1
3. Blind Luck (Baze) 3-1
4. Beautician (Albarado) 6-1
5. Bickersons (Rosario) 20-1
6. Connie and Michael (Desormeaux) 4-1
7. Devil May Care (Velazquez) 8-1
8. She Be Wild (Leparoux) 8-1
9. Champagne d'Oro (Garcia) 50-1
10. Negligee (Maragh) 6-1
11. Always a Princess (Gomez) 6-1
12. Biofuel Da (Silva) 15-1


Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1)

1. Visit (GB) (Velazquez) 10-1
2. Forever Together (Leparoux) 5-2
3. Rutherienne (Garcia) 8-1
4. Magical Fantasy (Solis) 3-1
5. Pure Clan (Gomez) 5-1
6. Midday (GB) (Queally) 4-1
7. Dynaforce (Desormeaux) 8-1
8. Maram (Lezcano) 15-1


Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)

1. Free Flying Soul (Smith) 50-1
2. Sara Louise (Dettori) 9-2
3. Game Face (Prado) 10-1
4. Only Green (IRE) (Peslier) 20-1
5. Silver Swallow (Solis) 30-1
6. Evita Argentina (Rosario) 20-1
7. Informed Decision (Leparoux) 5-2
8. Seventh Street (Maragh 4-1
9. Ventura (Gomez) 8-5


Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1)

1. Careless Jewel (Landry 2-1
2. Life Is Sweet (Gomez) 8-1
3. Mushka (Desormeaux) 12-1
4. Lethal Heat (Solis) 20-1
5. Proviso (GB) (Velazquez) 8-1
6. Cocoa Beach (CHI) (Migliore) 8-1
7. Music Note (Maragh) 9-5
8. Rainbow View (Leparoux) 6-1


Saturday, Nov. 7

Horses (Jockey) Odds

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2)

1. Zip Quik (Smith) 50-1
2. Viscount Nelson (Murtagh) 6-1
3. Codoy (Gomez) 15-1
4. Pounced (Dettori) 9-2
5. Gallant Gent (Rosario) 30-1
6. Awesome Act (Moore) 20-1
7. Bridgetown (Landry) 8-1
8. King Ledley (Bejarano) 20-1
9. Kera's Kitten (Maragh) 12-1
10. Becky's Kitten (Leparoux) 12-1
11. Interactif (Desormeaux) 4-1
12. Buzzword (GB) (Ajtebi) 6-1
13. Dean's Kitten (Dominguez) 12-1
14. Summer Movie (Baze) 50-1


Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

1. Noble Court (Rosario) 8-1
2. Silver Timber (Leparoux) 8-1
3. California Flag (Talamo) 7-2
4. Lord Shanakill (Crowley) 8-1
5. Get Funky (Bejarano) 20-1
6. Cannonball (Dominguez) 8-1
7. Gotta Have Her (Baze) 15-1
8. Square Eddie (Dettori) 20-1
9. Diamondrella (GB) (Maragh) 4-1
10. Canadian Ballet (Garcia) 20-1
11. El Gato Malo (Flores) 30-1
12. Strike the Deal (Fallon) 15-1
13. Desert Code (Migliore) 20-1
14. Delta Storm (Gomez) 10-1
15. Tenga Cat (Smith) 30-1
16. Cherokee Heaven (Blanc) 30-1


Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1)

1. Zensational (Espinoza) 7-5
2. Cost of Freedom (Baze) 20-1
3. Fatal Bullet (Da Silva) 9-2
4. Crown of Thorns (Bejarano) 12-1
5. Gayego (Gomez) 5-2
6. Dancing in Silks (Rosario) 12-1
7. Join in the Dance (Velazquez) 30-1
8. Capt. Candyman Can (Castellano) 15-1
9. Fleeting Spirit (IRE) (Dettori) 8-1


Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)

1. Alfred Nobel (IRE) (Murtagh) 20-1
2. Piscitelli (Desormeaux) 50-1
3. Beethoven (IRE) (Moore) 20-1
4. Noble's Promise (Martinez) 8-1
5. D' Funnybone (Prado) 5-2
6. Pulsion (Smith) 20-1
7. Vale of York (IRE) (Ajtebi) 20-1
8. Eskendereya (Castellano) 10-1
9. Aikenite (Garcia) 8-1
10. Aspire (Leparoux) 30-1
11. Radiohead (GB) (Dwyer) 15-1
12. William's Kitten (Dominguez) 30-1
13. Lookin At Lucky (Gomez) 8-5


TVG Breeders' Cup Mile (G1)

1. Court Vision (Albarado) 12-1
2. Whatsthescript (IRE) (Desormeaux) 15-1
3. Cowboy Cal (Velazquez) 6-1
4. Delegator (GB) (Dettori) 3-1
5. Karelian (Maragh) 20-1
6. Courageous Cat (Gomez) 20-1
7. Ferneley (IRE) (Bejarano) 20-1
8. Zacinto (GB) (Moore) 8-1
9. Gladiatorus (Atjebi) 20-1
10. Justenuffhumor (Garcia) 10-1
11. Goldikova (IRE) Peslier) 8-5


Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1)

1. Mastercraftsman (IRE) (Murtag) 6-5
2. Furthest Land (Leparoux) 20-1
3. Midshipman (Gomez) 6-1
4. Bullsbay (Rose) 3-1
5. Neko Bay (Smith) 20-1
6. Mambo Meister (Cruz) 30-1
7. Pyro (Velazquez) 10-1
8. Mr. Sidney (Desormeaux) 12-1
9. Chocolate Candy (Rosario) 15-1
10. Ready's Echo (Borel) 20-1


Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)

1. Telling (Castellano) 20-1
2. Conduit (IRE) (Moore) 7-5
3. Red Rocks (IRE) (Leparoux) 20-1
4. Allegre (Velazquez) 50-1
5. Dar Re Mi (GB) (Dettori) 3-1
6. Presious Passion (Trujillo) 4-1
7. Spanish Moon (Fallon) 5-2
8. Monzante (Bejarano) 30-1


Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

1. Mine That Bird (Borel) 12-1
2. Colonel John (Gomez) 12-1
3. Summer Bird (Desormeaux) 9-2
4. Zenyatta (Smith) 5-2
5. Twice Over (GB) (Queally) 20-1
6. Richard's Kid (Solis) 12-1
7. Gio Ponti (Dominguez) 12-1
8. Einstein (BRZ) (Leparoux) 12-1
9. Girolamo (Garcia) 20-1
10. Rip Van Winkle (IRE) (Murtagh) 7-2
11. Regal Ransom (Migliore) 20-1
12. Quality Road (Velazquez) 12-1
13. Awesome Gem (Florez) 30-1

 

[Lumi]

Gary Player stops at Breeders' Cup

Gary Player stops at Breeders' Cup

Gary Player stops at Breeders' Cup
November 5, 2009


ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) -Globe-trotting golf legend Gary Player has the horse racing bug.

``It's a disease with me,'' he said Thursday at Santa Anita, where he visited a number of horses running this weekend in the Breeders' Cup.

It is a malady to which he has happily succumbed.

Player built a 20,000-acre breeding farm in his native South Africa, thoroughly immersing himself in the study of pedigrees and the production of race horses.

``The conclusion you come to after all the studying is that you know a heck of a lot about nothing,'' he said. ``Horses are a lot like golf. They will both humble you. You have to have quality and you have to work hard.''

Player, who is in the midst of a trip that will take him to 12 countries in 31 days, was presented the first Breeders' Cup Sports and Racing Excellence Award, honoring ``an individual who has established a career of excellence in a chosen profession and also maintains a passionate interest as an owner, breeder or participant in the thoroughbred racing industry.''

Player touched on the most sensitive subject of this Breeders' Cup: the absence of superstar 3-year-olds Rachel Alexandra and Sea The Stars.

Owner Jess Jackson would not let Rachel Alexandra, the filly who beat the boys in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, compete on Santa Anita's synthetic surface. Sea The Stars, the brilliant turf runner in Europe, was recently retired to stud.

Player made an impassioned plea to owners to embrace, rather than avoid, the championship showdowns.

``I'm very disappointed to see Rachel Alexandra not run,'' he said. ``In my humble opinion, he should have raced her. We need to see Sea The Stars here. It wouldn't have made any difference to his breeding program if he got beat here. We take horses out of training too quickly. He should be here.''

---

RESTING THE BIRD: Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is headed for a well-earned vacation following the $5 million BC Classic on Saturday.

It's been a long, hard journey that started in New Mexico in the winter, shifted to Churchill Downs for the 50-1 shocker in the Derby and will conclude with the richest race in North America.

Trainer Chip Woolley Jr. is hoping for one more peak effort, especially after supplementing Mine That Bird to the Breeders' Cup for $150,000.

``That wasn't a choice made lightly,'' he said.

Mine That Bird, 12-1 on the morning line, will get a 45- to 60-day rest after the race.

``He's probably the most traveled horse in the country and he definitely needs a break,'' Woolley said. ``We'll possibly look at something at Oaklawn Park early in the year and set up a schedule aiming for the good races at a mile-and-a-quarter.''

This will be Mine That Bird's second straight race at Santa Anita, following a sixth-place effort in the Goodwood Stakes last month.

Like his horse, Woolley is ready for the wide-open spaces of New Mexico.

``I love Santa Anita,'' he said. ``I'm not so big on L.A. Santa Anita is a beautiful place to come train every morning. I'm more country. This is a little bit overcrowded for me once you leave the stable gate.''

---

EUROPE'S OTHER CLASSIC HOPE: Rip Van Winkle, the 7-2 second choice, is widely regarded as Europe's best chance for a repeat win in the BC Classic.

Twice Over, 20-1 on the morning line, merits consideration for an upset. Trained by Henry Cecil, nine times the champion conditioner in England, Twice Over has won three straight, all on the turf.

His latest effort was a 14-1 upset in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket. This will be the first time the 4-year-old colt does not run on grass.

``He went through a stage where he lost his confidence,'' Cecil said. ``I think he's got that back. He won the Champion Stakes on ground he really didn't like. He came out of it very well. I think he's got more chance than the betting line tells us.''

Twice Over got an endorsement from John Gosden, another Britain-based trainer, who captured last year's Classic with Raven's Pass at 13-1.

``Rip Van Winkle is the class of the race,'' Gosden said. ``If he's on his best form, he will take some beating. I very much like Henry's horse. He won the Champion Stakes in a great performance. I think at 20-1, he is fantastic value. I really do.''

 

[Lumi]

Zenyatta waiting for Day 2 of the Cup

Zenyatta waiting for Day 2 of the Cup

Zenyatta waiting for Day 2 of the Cup
November 5, 2009


ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) -The Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic is missing its leading lady, with defending champion Zenyatta pitting her 13-0 record against the boys on the second day of the season-ending world championships.

Her defection leaves Music Note as the early 9-5 favorite in the eight-horse field for the 1 1-8-mile Ladies' Classic on Friday at Santa Anita.

The $2 million race is the highlight of six Breeders' Cup races on Day 1, five of them featuring females, with the $500,000 Marathon for males.

Zenyatta's presence in Saturday's $5 million Classic is daunting to some of her rivals.

``I would have entered her with the fillies so I didn't have to run at her,'' said Chip Woolley Jr., who trains Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

``You know she's going to be running late and she has a lot of style, much the same as my horse. She's twice his size, so if she decides to knock him out of the way, she's got a good chance.''

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert saddles long shot Richard's Kid in the Classic.

``I don't like to see her in there - I'm in there with her,'' he said. ``But she's going to bring so much. Everybody is going to be watching with her in there. We need a big boost right now and she's going to be our boost.''

Zenyatta is going against male competition for the first time in her career. She will break from the No. 4 post in the 1 1/4-mile race.

``Optimism is high,'' said Jerry Moss, who co-owns the 5-year-old mare with his wife. ``I think everybody is in for a treat.''

Zenyatta is grabbing the attention in the absence of Rachel Alexandra, who was 8-for-8 this year, including three wins over male horses.

Owner Jess Jackson shut her down for the season because he dislikes Santa Anita's synthetic track on which his two-time Horse of the Year Curlin faded to fourth in last year's Classic.

No female horse has won the Classic in its 25-year history.

Zenyatta will be the fourth female to try. Jolypha had the best result, finishing third in 1992. Azeri was fourth in 2004 and Triptych was sixth in 1986.

Zenyatta would have been the closest thing to a sure bet in the Ladies' Classic. Without her, Music Note will try to improve on last year's third-place finish.

Careless Jewel is the early second choice at 2-1. She comes in on a five-race winning streak, with only one loss in her career for Josie Carroll, who would be the first female trainer to win the race.

The 3-year-old gray filly will break from the No. 1 post and likely use her tactical speed to go to the lead.

``She's really not a nervous filly (like) people seem to think,'' Carroll said. ``Any race that we've taken her to she's actually been good until the rider gets on her back. Once somebody gets on, she wants her things her way and she starts to perform.''

Even without Zenyatta, trainer John Shirreffs still has a horse in the Ladies' Classic with Life is Sweet, who has fruitlessly chased Zenyatta in three of her last four races.

``It breaks my heart that Zenyatta is not in the race,'' owner Marty Wygod said, jokingly.

Also in the Ladies' Classic, Britain-bred Proviso will try to give Bobby Frankel his seventh career Breeders' Cup victory. The Hall of Fame trainer has been running his stable by phone while being sidelined by an undisclosed illness for much of the year.

Frankel also has Britain-bred Visit in Friday's Filly & Mare Turf and Ventura in the Filly & Mare Sprint, which he won last year.

The $500,000 Marathon begins Friday's races, with gelding Cloudy's Knight making his Breeders' Cup debut at age 9.

European horses won five of last year's 14 Breeders' Cup races, and could make a strong showing again. Ireland-bred Lillie Langtry, trained by Aidan O'Brien, is the 3-1 early favorite in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf.

 

[Lumi]

Europeans no longer under radar at BC

Europeans no longer under radar at BC

Europeans no longer under radar at BC
November 5, 2009


ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) -The Europeans staged a surprise invasion in the 2008 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita.

They won't be blindsiding anyone this year.

Led by 13-1 Raven's Pass, who beat favorite and two-time Horse of the Year Curlin to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, Europeans won five races on Breeders' Cup Saturday last year, and have a heavy - and heavily watched - presence in 2009.

Thirty of the 149 horses entered in this year's Breeders' Cup have been shipped in from Europe, looking to match last year's stunning success. They will brave jet lag, quarantines and strange synthetic surfaces to vie for their part in $25.5 million in purses.

Most of the European horses finished their required quarantine period and were out getting a feel for the synthetic soil Pro-Ride track at Santa Anita on Wednesday, some for the first time, others revisiting the same track where they had Breeders' Cup victories last year.

Three-year-old Rip Van Winkle is the contingent's hottest prospect, the 7-2 second-choice with jockey John Murtaugh behind undefeated mare Zenyatta in Saturday's $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

Made the race's favorite by many European bookmakers, Rip Van Winkle is coming off consecutive victories in the Sussex Stakes and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in England.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien said a long year, a long flight and a sore foot have given the colt trouble, but he's resilient.

``The journey took a little more out of him than the rest. He was bushed,'' O'Brien said after Rip Van Winkle worked on the Santa Anita track Wednesday.

O'Brien said the colt moved slowly but the trainer liked what he saw.

``He's been swimming against the tide all season but he is probably the most natural horse we've ever had, the most natural athlete.''

All four of Rip Van Winkle's wins - and all eight of his starts - have come on the turf in Europe. But many attributed last year's European success to the similarity that Santa Anita's mixture of fiber, rubber and sand has to turf.

After fading to fourth aboard Curlin on the Pro-Ride surface in the Classic, jockey Robby Albarado said ``it seemed like the synthetics played like a turf course,'' and trainer Steve Asmussen said the contest ``was a turf race.''

Raven's Pass last year was, like Rip Van Winkle, a turf horse making his first synthetic start in the classic.

``He's never been on the surface but he showed he's a beautiful mover,'' O'Brien said. ``There's no doubt about it, if the season hasn't taken a toll.''

O'Brien brought seven horses with him, the biggest traveling barn of any European trainer, including Mastercraftsman, who was pre-entered in the Classic but will instead run as the Cup's biggest morning-line favorite at 6-5 in the Dirt Mile. And O'Brien's Lillie Langtry is the 3-1 favorite in Friday's Juvenile Fillies Turf. Murtaugh will be in the irons for both.

Goldikova and Conduit each return to the United States as morning-line favorites and defending champions in their respective races.

The Ireland-bred Goldikova is the 8-5 favorite in the Turf Mile for French trainer Freddy Head, who last year became the first to win a Breeders' Cup race as a jockey and a trainer when he saddled Goldikova in the victory.

Conduit, also Irish bred, is 7-5 on the morning line in the 1 1/2-mile Breeders' Cup Turf for British trainer Michael Stoute.

Stoute said Conduit was snorting and acting out on his first day among the American horses Wednesday, but that is to be expected.

``He acts like that at home, too,'' Stoute said. ``Likes to let them know who's the boss.''

Conduit is coming off a victory in the Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 4.

``He ran well in the Arc,'' Stoute said, ``and he's taken this journey very well.''

Conduit's stablemate Spanish Moon is the race's second choice.

Gate misbehavior had the 5-year-old Spanish Moon banned in England and forced him to race in France, where he has won two straight.

Spanish Moon schooled in the gate Wednesday morning, and Stoute isn't worried about him making a scene Saturday.

``He's been fine in France this year,'' Stoute said. ``And this morning he had no problems at the gate.''

 

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Artificial tracks provided false hopes

Artificial tracks provided false hopes

Artificial tracks provided false hopes

There is no consensus on whether the synthetic tracks have helped with injuries, and California tracks could go back to dirt.

Death is a sad but common part of thoroughbred racing, but in California the sight of medical vans on racetracks was a grim reminder that this state had problems far greater than others.

In May 2006, the California Horse Racing Board, whose job it is to ensure fair and safe racing in the state, identified the dirt surface as a problem. It mandated that all the main thoroughbred tracks install what was believed to be a much safer synthetic surface by the end of the following year.

In the three years since the conversion, 26 horses have died at Del Mar alone. That is an improvement -- 19 died at the seaside track near San Diego during 2006. From July 1, 2007 to July 30, 2008, there were 31 horse deaths on synthetics at Santa Anita and 38 at Hollywood Park.

There remains a fierce debate within the industry as to the success of the experiment. So much so that the board has relaxed its stance, saying it would now probably allow any track to switch back to dirt if it wants to. The tracks have already spent $40 million to make the change to the synthetic surface, so finding more money to revert back may be difficult for an already struggling industry.

Despite some statistics that show there have been fewer fatalities during races, there is no consensus among owners and trainers that the switch to the synthetic surface has made any difference in preventing the deaths of thoroughbreds. Medical research has shown an increase in soft-tissue injuries, and this summer Del Mar had more deaths than usual during training.

It is in this environment of second-guessing and recriminations that the Breeders' Cup, thoroughbred racing's world championship, returns to Santa Anita today and Saturday to be run on a Pro-Ride synthetic surface. But the controversy remains. The sport's most visible horse, the 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra, is not running in this event because her owner, Jess Jackson, said he had no intention of "running on plastic."

Synthetic tracks are a mixture of sand, rubber and synthetic fibers. They contain wax or polymer-based binders to cushion and bind the materials.

The man who headed the switch from dirt to synthetics, former CHRB chairman Richard Shapiro, says now, "I feel clearly I was sold a bill of goods. In 20-20 hindsight, if it was today, I wouldn't have pushed toward the mandate. Am I disappointed? Absolutely."

Among the unexpected consequences:

* Synthetic tracks turned out to be anything but maintenance free.

* Hind-leg injuries to horses running on synthetic surfaces are far more prevalent than on dirt.

* Predictions of horses being sent from the East Coast to run on synthetic tracks in California to help a dwindling racing population haven't worked out.

* Fields keep getting smaller, alienating bettors and helping produce a drop in wagering.

"Originally, we thought it was going to be a panacea for racing, a real breakthrough," said John Harris, chairman of the CHRB. "It hasn't turned out as well, but it is not a big failure as some say."

Stuck in the middle of the disagreement is Dr. Rick Arthur, equine medical director for the CHRB.

"It's like discussing abortion or gun control," Arthur said. "You can't get an unemotional discussion. You're on one side or the other. There are promising aspects of synthetic surfaces and frustrating aspects. The biggest problem has been they have been inconsistent from day to day, which drives trainers crazy."

Arthur said statistics he compiled for the CHRB show a 40% drop in fatalities during races at synthetic tracks when compared to dirt tracks from Jan. 1, 2004, through Sept. 9 of this year, but he added there has not been similar improvement in training workouts, and the information is harder to analyze.

What has surprised many is how quickly a synthetic track can change because of weather conditions. Temperature and humidity affect the synthetic mixture, and that inconsistency has left owners, jockeys, handicappers and maintenance crews guessing what's going to happen next.

"There's still a mystery to it," said Craig Fravel, executive vice president at Del Mar.

The mystery becomes even more difficult to solve when you realize each of the three main tracks in Southern California put in different composite materials so there is no common information base that can be shared.

Critics say synthetic surfaces have not made a significant impact in improving safety, and they cite as evidence the 37-day Del Mar summer meeting in which 12 horses were euthanized because of injuries on the Polytrack, eight of which occurred during morning training sessions.

The sudden spike in horse deaths -- there were eight during last year's 43-day Del Mar meeting and six in 2007 -- also occurred on dirt tracks, and that has left horsemen perplexed, because synthetic surfaces were marketed as a solution to the catastrophic injury dilemma that produced 3.09 fatalities per 1,000 starts in California from 2004 until 2007, according to the Kentucky Equine Review.

But tracks are in no financial condition to rush forward and spend millions on returning to a dirt surface.

The owner of Santa Anita and Northern California-based Golden Gate Fields, Magna Entertainment Corp, filed for bankruptcy protection. The owner of Hollywood Park has plans to demolish its track and replace it with houses and condos.

There have been seven horse fatalities during this Oak Tree meeting, three on the turf, three on the Pro-Ride and one from a gate incident, with none during training.

Last year's Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita produced no major injuries among the 156 horses, according to Sherwood Chillingworth, executive vice president of the Oak Tree Racing Assn.

In July of last year, Santa Anita removed its Cushion Track and replaced it with the Australia-based Pro-Ride surface that relies on polymer binding because of drainage issues. More work was done last January after trainer complaints.

Arthur continues to work toward coming up with comprehensive standards and statistics that would provide documentation on synthetic surfaces, from using precise weather data to using sophisticated biomechanical testing equipment.

The CHRB's innovative Postmortem Examination Program -- in which any horse that dies at a state race track must be sent to UC Davis for review -- has already produced the first documented evidence that horses running on synthetic tracks are receiving more hind-leg injuries than on dirt surfaces.

In preliminary statistics compiled from 2008, 19 thoroughbreds out of 111 that died on synthetic tracks had hind-leg injuries. There was only one death out of 65 on dirt attributed to a hind-leg injury. Overall, there were 351 deaths for all breeds in California in 2008.

Dr. Hailu Kinde, who oversees the UC Davis program, said he doesn't know whether synthetic tracks are safer than dirt for thoroughbred horses.

"At this point, I can't say. We have to analyze the data with additional information from the field," he said.

Trainer Darrell Vienna said he believes everyone had the right intentions when the decision was made to mandate synthetics.

"Three years ago, you had a consensus of hope," he said. "Now, experience shows they had been mistaken, overexaggerated or failed."

 

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If you want to bet on Breeders' Cup, here's some advice

If you want to bet on Breeders' Cup, here's some advice

If you want to bet on Breeders' Cup, here's some advice


This weekend's races at Arcadia are particularly challenging to predict; we break down who has the best track record among handicappers.

The first day of the Breeders' Cup is upon us and everyone is looking for an edge. This two-day festival of racing is among the most difficult days to handicap because there are few horses you can throw out and a bunch of European horses you have no idea about.

So where do you turn?

Through the Oak Tree meeting, The Times has been tracking six public handicappers and one who sells his selections in the hopes of finding where the edge lies.

What was discovered is whichever way you look at it, making money at the track isn't that easy.

The handicappers did not ask to be in this survey and would undoubtedly spin a tale of advice that would lead to a fattened wallet. They would probably tell you never bet every race, even though they have to make selections on every race. They would also offer advice on when it's better to play win, place and show and when to bet exotics such as exactas and Pic-3s and Pic-4s.

But, you have to start somewhere, and this survey just placed a mythical $2 bet on every horse they picked to win every race, every day. If their pick scratched, the bet went on the next horse.

Handicappers try to balance value with winners. For example, it's easy to pick the favorite to win because they win about one-third of the time. Often, handicappers look to beat the favorite to bring more value to their customers.

Bob Ike, who handicaps for the Lang newspapers, has the most wins with 86. But Toby Turrell, who sells his handicapping sheet for $3, has the most amount of money with $494. If you bet $2 on every one of Toby Turrell's selections you would be up $18 for the meeting. But that, of course, doesn't count the cost of his sheet.

Meanwhile, if you are looking for number of days you won or broke even, then you would go with Ray Nelson, who also offers selections for the Lang newspapers, who had 14 of those days.

Let's say you want the hot handicapper. It would be Jerry Antonucci, who appears in the Lang papers. He has won the most money this week (two days), $42.80 on $32 wagered.

Your best value might be Brad Free, whose last name is the cost of his selections. He can be found at santaanita.com under handicapping. His work also appears in the Daily Racing Form. He has the second most wins with 82.

So, here's the breakdown of the handicappers, in order of wins:

Bob Ike (Lang newspapers): 86 wins, 86-49-36 (win, place, show), $469 won, nine days winning or breaking even, $44.40 is his best day (Oct. 11).

Brad Free (Daily Racing Form): 82 wins, 82-52-32, $453.60 won, 11 days winning or breaking even, $34.40 is his best day (Oct. 31).

Toby Turrell ($3 at the racetrack, also online): 73 wins, 73-39-38, $494 won, 12 days winning or breaking even, $42 is his best day (Oct. 17).

Liam Durbin (The Times): 72 wins, 72-48-39, $395 won, eight days winning or breaking even, $35.60 is his best day (Oct. 23).

Jerry Antonucci (Lang newspapers): 69 wins, 69-61-46, $382.40 won, 10 days winning or breaking even, $38.60 is his best day (Oct. 4).

Terry Turrell (Lang newspapers): 64 wins, 64-39-39, $386.80 won, eight days winning or breaking even, $36.40 is his best day (Oct. 4).

Ray Nelson (Lang newspapers): 63 wins, 63-45-31, $443.20 won, 14 days winning or breaking even, $34.80 is his best day (Oct. 25).

 

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The 'Rider Cup' during the Breeders' Cup

The 'Rider Cup' during the Breeders' Cup

The 'Rider Cup' during the Breeders' Cup


The Times has put together a U.S. vs. Europe showdown, Ryder Cup style.

The Times has put together a U.S. vs. Europe showdown, Ryder Cup-style (or is it Rider Cup?) for the Breeders' Cup. In each of the Breeders' Cup races two European horses will be matched against two U.S. horses. If one of those four horses wins the race, one point will be awarded to that team. If none of the four horses wins, half a point will be awarded to the highest finishing horse among the four. If only one European horse is entered, the U.S. will enter only one horse. The horses are drawn by morning-line odds. Post position in parentheses:

Races today

MARATHON (12:35 P.M.)

Europe: Mastery (6), Father Time (5)

U.S.: Nite Light (3), Cloudy's Night (4)

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (1:08 P.M.)

Europe: Junia Tepzia (11), Elusive Galaxy (2)

U.S.: Lillie Langtry (8), House Of Grace (8)

JUVENILE FILLIES (1:45 P.M.)

No European entries

FILLY AND MARE TURF (2:23 P.M.)

Europe: Midday (6), Visit (1)

U.S.: Forever Together (2), Magical Fantasy (4)

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT (3:02 P.M.)

Europe: Only Green (4)

U.S.: Ventura (9)

LADIES CLASSIC (3:45 P.M.)

Europe: Proviso (5), Cocoa Beach (6)

U.S.: Music Note (7), Careless Jewel (1)

Note: Cocoa Beach is really a Chilean horse, but we are granting it entry into the EU.

Saturday races

JUVENILE TURF (10:45 A.M.)

Europe: Buzzword (12)

U.S.: Interactif (11)

TURF SPRINT (11:23 A.M.)

Europe: Diamondrella (9)

U.S.: California Flag (3)

SPRINT (12:10 P.M.)

Europe: Fleeting Spirit (9)

U.S.: Zensational (1)

JUVENILE (12:49 P.M.)

Europe: Radiohead (11), Beethoven (3)

U.S.: Lookin At Lucky (13), D'Funnybone (5)

MILE (1:28 P.M.)

Europe: Goldikova (11), Delegator (4)

U.S.: Cowboy Cal (3), Justenuffhumor (10)

TURF (2:57 P.M.)

Europe: Conduit (2), Dar Re Mi (5)

U.S.: Spanish Moon (7), Presious Passion (6)

CLASSIC (3:45 P.M.)

Europe: Rip Van Winkle (10), Twice Over (5)

U.S.: Zenyatta (4), Summer Bird (3)

 

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Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Friday, Nov. 6, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Friday, Nov. 6, 2009

Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Friday, Nov. 6, 2009
The first of two days of Breeders? Cup action presents a challenging series of six races with plenty of price opportunities and a couple of solid singles within the Pick-6 scheme.

The first BC race ? which goes as the third race on the program ? is the Marathon and should be dominated by the Europeans. #5 Father Time is a winner of his only synthetic track race (his debut) and was just a cut below top class among English stayers. He arrives fit and ready for a big race and brings with him better credentials than last year?s Marathon winner from overseas, Muhannak. #6 Mastery actually has a resume that would make him a threat in the BC Turf, but he shows up here and is the likely choice and strictly the one to beat following his victory in the Group-1 St. Leger at Doncaster. Also worth using in your rolling exotics is the up-and-coming #9 Man of Iron, a half-brother to Rags to Riches and Jaazil, both Belmont Stakes winners. Man of Iron won with complete authority at 11 furlongs in an overnight race over the all weather at Dundalk last month and with another forward move ? quite likely for this progressive sort ? the son of Giant?s Causeway could spring a nice surprise at 8-1 on the morning line.

The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf has plenty of talent ? some of it untested ? but the one they all have to beat is the Euro import #8 Lillie Langtry, a triple stakes winner overseas and listed as low as 7-1 in some British books for next year?s Guineas. She likes to settle early and blast home and that kind of style should be very effective over this glib turf course. #4 Rose Catherine earned a giant speed figure graduating in blazing time over the Belmont Park turf course last month and she?s clearly the speed of the speed on the stretch out for Pletcher. We?ll also use the unbeaten #7 House of Grace, who won the off-the-turf Jessamine at Keeneland impressively and before that scored in her debut over the Saratoga lawn by five widening lengths.

The fifth race on the program is the BC Juvenile Fillies and any one of eight or nine could win it without registering a major surprise. We?ll try to boil it down to three main contenders, using #3 Blind Luck; #6 Connie and Michael, and #12 Biofuel. Blind Luck won the Oak Leaf Stakes last month in her first try around two turns and has the home court advantage. She continues to train sharply and likely has another forward move in her. Connie and Michael ran off and hid from maidens in her debut for McPeak and could be any kind. She looks like the controlling speed on the stretch out and may never look back. Biofuel was a 23-1 upset winner of the Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine, displaying an impressive late kick, and if the pace comes up hot, she?ll be rolling late at what should be a very nice price.

The BC Filly & Mare Turf goes as the sixth race and defending champion #2 Forever Together might be vulnerable after disappointing in her last pair. She?s a hard one to dismiss, but we simply like the high class European invader #6 Midday better and would nominate her as one of our singles in the rolling exotics. Beaten a head in the English Oaks last summer, the Henry Cecil-trained filly became a Group-1 winner when taking the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and lost little in defeat when a close up third in the Group-1 Prix de l?Opera on Arc weekend. She?ll handle top of the ground, has a exceptional turn of foot and should be along in time.

The seventh race, the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, seems made to order for the defending race champion, #9 Ventura. She perfect over this track, loves this extended sprint distance, lands the cozy outside post, and reportedly has been training better than ever. She enters the fray fresh from her victory over the boys in the Woodbine Mile and figures to produce the last run over a Pro Ride surface that plays kindly to her rally-wide style. There?s plenty of contention, to be sure, but Ventura seems like a logical single.

The final BC race of the afternoon is the Ladies Classic, and with Zenyatta opting for the Classic on Saturday, her stable mate, #2 Life Is Sweet, has a chance to get back on the winning track. She?s certainly had her fill of Zenyatta, having finished behind her in three of her last four starts, but she?s run much better than the lines would indicate and with clear sailing and plenty of pace today she might be capable of producing the last run. We?ll use her in all of our rolling exotics along with the brilliantly fast front-runner #1 Careless Jewel, and the high class Godolphin filly #7 Music Note. Careless Jewel will take them as far as she can and if she?s not pressured early she might turn this race into a parade. Music Not should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip and her recent Beldame victory earned a career top speed figure, so you know she?s never been better.

 

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OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA ANALYSIS

OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA ANALYSIS

OAK TREE AT SANTA A N I TA ANALY S I SBy BRAD FREE


First Race:1.Joshua?s Dream 2.Riviera Cocktail 3.Deal Breaker
First post time is 11:15 a.m. J O S H UA?S DREAM drilled $25k claimers last time despite washing out.His length-and-one-quarter vict
o ry was his ninth from 21 start s, a record that includes a win three back at this N1X/optional $40k claiming leve l .J O S H UA?S DREAM
meets a field with a host of speed; he can tuck into a midpack trip and wear them down late if he merely reproduces his last. R I VIERA
COCKTAIL scored a solid maiden win in his U. S. d e but one back ; a half to G2 winners Teammate and War Front, he subsequently
finished second on this tra ck at this class. An improved horse since shipping to the U. S., RIVIERA COCKTAIL will roll from
the back in a race that should unfold at a lively pace. DEAL BREAKER missed by a nose to the top choice one back, then won a
d ownhill sprint here two weeks ago.ROYAL PUNISHER goes long off an easy sprint win in a four-horse field.This big-field allowa n c e
route is tougher, but he?ll take them as far as he can. Speed has been holding lately in two - t u rn races on Pro-Ride.
Second Race:1.Barbara?s Love 2.Miss McCall 3.Toro Bonito
BARBARA?S LOVE is a 6-for-18 machine with repeated wins at this condition. She won her last three spri n t s, drops from N2X and
s h o rtens to her preferred distance while showing up for a $40k tag. She can win if she catches MISS MCCALL. The latter return e d
from a long layoff to win a fast maiden race with a pressing trip up against a strong pace. She looks like the pace of the ra c e, and
could be tough to catch if she handles the higher class level and ex t ra half-furl o n g .TO RO BONITO returns from a nine-month layo f f
for a hot stable (Bob Baffe rt ) . Bob Baffe rt also starts NORTH RO D E O, who is usually close.
Third Race:1.Mastery 2.Nite Light 3.Black Astor
Group 1 winner MASTERY is the class of the field; a mile and three-quarters is perfect for the improving 3-year-old that won a G1
last out at a similar distance.He is the best horse in the field, plain and simple.NITE LIGHT is a proven stayer who won his only start
on synthetic, at Tu r f way. O n e - t wo in 12 of 15, NITE LIGHT should get a good trip sitting second behind BLACK ASTO R .The latter
is the speed of the field, making his first start since he was foiled on a kamikaze pace two months ago at Del Mar.He runs well fresh,
t rains super on Pro-Ride, and could get brave on an easy lead. Best of all, he should start at a hint of a pri c e. He has a longshot
chance to wire the field if left alone out front. C L O U DY?S KNIGHT is 2-for-2 this year in G3s at a mile and a half on turf; he is the late
t h r e a t . FATHER TIME is better than his last looks; UK handicapping ex p e rts suggest he can upset the favo ri t e.
Fourth Race:1.House of Grace 2.Rose Catherine 3.Junia Tepzia
HOUSE OF GRACE is 2-for-2, and no telling how good. She crushed first out going two turns on Saratoga turf, and fo l l owed with a
s h a rp win on Keeneland Po l y. B l o cked saving ground through the far turn, she split horses into the lane and was up late.While both
wins were solid, her outstanding debut one back on turf suggests she is better on gra s s. ROSE CATHERINE switched to turf and
trounced maidens by more than eight lengths in fast time.That race was six furl o n g s, but she finished like a filly that will have no trouble
staying a mile. She probably is best of the front-ru n n e r s. JUNIA TEPZIA scored two impressive wins in Italy.This is her U. S. d e bu t ;
she arri ved last we e ke n d .P OTOSINA won big on soft turf last time, while LA NEZ won the Cal Cup Ju venile Fillies over good nex t -
out winner W h i s p e ring Hush.Purchased pri vately since raced, LA NEZ has a running style suggests two turns on grass will be just
f i n e. She is the bomber. LILLIE LANGTRY has the best European fo rm, and will be overbet accordingly.
Fifth Race:1.Always a Princess 2.Blind Luck 3.Connie and Michael
A LWAYS A PRINCESS was at a disadvantage stretching to two turns in her second start in the G1 Oak Leaf Stake s. She set the
pace over a surface unkind to speed, dug in late, and held second in a huge effo rt . The surface recently has been kind to speed;
?PRINCESS does not require the front. She can sit just off, get first run, and turn the tables on BLIND LUCK.There are two big knock s
on ? P R I N C E S S, howeve r. Her final wo rk got messed up, and she is stuck way out in post 11. BLIND LUCK won the Oak Leaf going
away, over a surface that early in the meet was favo ra ble to closers.The tra ck recently has been more kind to fo r wardly placed types.
BLIND LUCK is proven on Pro-Ride, and the best late threat. CONNIE AND MICHAEL won her debut by more than seven lengths
with a giant figure. She is a freaky fast filly for trainer Ken McPeek, and might be good enough to make the jump from debut maiden
win to BC Ju venile Fillies.Come catch her.DEVIL MAY CARE won a pair in New Yo rk, including the G1 Fri ze t t e. She should like
t wo turn s.NEGLIGEE ran well winning a G1 in Ke n t u ck y, and wo rked super in Califo rn i a .
Sixth Race:1.Midday 2.Forever Together 3.Magical Fantasy
M I D DAY, a G1 winner in England, can spring a small upset against a seemingly modest North American female turf division. M I DDAY
had been off two months and was merely prepping for this when she finished third last time. She reportedly has trained we l l
s i n c e, and handles the mile and a quarter distance.FOREVER TOGETHER won this race last year with a wicked turn of late speed.
Her 2009 campaign has been less impressive, but the objective has always been to repeat in this ra c e. If she is the same filly she
was last ye a r, which is a debatable point, she can win again. M AGICAL FA N TASY has been beating up the same creampuff division
out West all ye a r.These are tougher, but she sure does have the win habit (four straight including three G1s).PURE CLAN is in better
fo rm than she was last year when she finished nowhere on this course. DYNAFORCE figures for a good trip fo r wardly placed in
a race where the early lead is up for gra b s.
Seventh Race:1.Ventura 2.Informed Decision 3.Sara Louise
VENTURA won this race in 2008, and is equally brilliant in 2009.A synthetic sprinter with a monster late kick, she beat G1 turf males
in the Woodbine Mile last out, trained super since returning home, and can bl ow past late. INFORMED DECISION upset the top pick
at Keeneland, and has the tactical edge because she has more speed than the favo ri t e.?DECISION will be positioned within stri k i n g
range of a soft pace, and she will get first ru n .She is 6-for-6 on synthetic in the Midwest and East. S u r face apparently does not matter
for INFORMED DECISION. M e a n w h i l e, Pro-Ride is something altogether new for SARA LOUISE, who earned huge figures both
s t a rts this year on dirt . Although this is her first try on synthetic, she has trained part i c u l a rly well at Santa Anita.Two-time G1 winner
SEVENTH STREET figures to like this shorter tri p.Longshot FREE FLYING SOUL has a win over the tra ck, and a pace adva n t a g e.
The outclassed filly might also be loose on the lead. S I LVER SWA L L OW will roll late at a big nu m b e r.
Eighth Race:1.Careless Jewel 2.Music Note 3.Rainbow View
F i ve straight wins by CARELESS JEWEL were by daylight margins, including three graded stake s. She enters with a pace adva ntage
over a surface that latey has been kind to speed. The only pure front-ru n n e r, the gray figures to be loose early and gone late as
the most probable winner on the Fri d ay card.MUSIC NOTE returned to top fo rm in late summer and fall, and ships in off big-margin
v i c t o ries on New Yo rk dirt .She is quick enough to keep the top choice in her sights, and would be one of the first to make a run if the
pacesetter fa l t e r s. The good European filly RAINBOW VIEW will try for the turf-to-synthetic upset, as her trainer did one year ago
with BC Classic winner Rave n ?s Pa s s.?VIEW has solid G1 fo rm in UK, Ireland and Canada, and fits if she takes to the fo o t i n g .C O C OA
B E ACH has yet to regain her 2008 fo rm, while consistent closer LETHAL HEAT could sneak along and hit the board at a big pri c e.
Last out, she finished only one and one-quarter lengths behind Zenyatta, the Breeders? Cup Classic favo rite on Saturday.
Ninth Race:1.Tuscan Evening 2.Tizaqueena 3.Internallyflawless
The Grade 2 winner TUSCAN EVENING has a good sprint prep under her belt (third in the G3 Ken Maddy), and is set to stretch out
to a mile. Her post (10) is not as bad as seve ral of her main ri vals who are stuck further outside. TUSCAN EVENING has speed,
but does not require the lead, and figures for a good trip saving ground while setting or pressing the pace.T I Z AQUEENA would have
been the top choice, except that she drew post 13 going a flat mile. Her two good tries in Grade 1 races include a runner-up finish
at Keeneland in which she defeated F&M Turf favo rite Fo r ever To g e t h e r, and a good fo u rth setting th epace until deep stretch in the
G1 Beve rly D. A r g u a bly the ??best horse? in the ra c e, she is compromised by her outside draw.I N T E R N A L LY F L AWLESS is an improving
3-year-old who is not good enough ye t .But she enters on an upward pattern, and she will be finishing.

 

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OAK TREE HOUSE HANDICAP

 

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Larry Zap

Larry Zap

Larry Zap

Larry Zap "The Eye" of Race and Sports Radio on 1090AM San Diego Sat. & Sun 9-10AM PST will provide select plays for the current meet. His unique analysis of measuring quality in racehorses that he uses to buy young thoroughbreds is also applicable in selecting winners. Follow along as he attempts to show a nice flat bet profit during the Del Mar meet.

Handicapping Picks for 11/06/2009
Race 2 - #5 Halfaponderosa 12-1

undefeated filly has thrived since her last win...Solis know her well...best of all i bought Pondy with her trainer Pete Eurton & we won this NW1 Breeders Cup undercard race last year with another one of our purchases She's Cheeky...tab for smasher...hope we get 12-1

have you signed up for twitter.com...easy to do...follow your favorite sports team & me at Larryzapeye...great up to the minute info

 

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CAL HORSE BEST BET

CAL HORSE BEST BET

Handicapping Picks for 11/06/2009
BREEDERS' CUP FREE PLAY DAY ONE
Race 7 - Pick Three
VENTURA - INFORMED DECISION
with
CARELESS JEWEL - MUSIC NOTE - COCOA BEACH
with
TEAMGEIST - TIZAQUEENA - MEYDAN PRINCESS - INTERNALLYFLAWLESS

 

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Ellis Starr

Ellis Starr

Handicapping Picks for 11/06/2009
Race #1
#9 Joshua's Dream - Fair odds 7/5
#6 Deal Breaker - Fair odds 5/2

Possible exacta wagers: 6,9 over 2,3,6,7,9
#2 is Imco Spirit, #3 is Riviera Cocktail and #8 is On Fire
The cost of the wager is $8 at the $1 minimum level and we win if Joshua's Dream or Deal Breaker is victorious and then if one of them (the one that didn't win) or any of the other three finish second.

Coming off a FIVE WINNER DAY (TOP CHOICES) on Wednesday at Santa Anita to start Breeders' Cup Week, we are anticipating a lot of action, and profit, on both Friday and Saturday as two days of championship racing unfolds. Good Luck!

With Singer Island having tactical speed and a poor 12 post that forces Garrett Gomez to send him for the lead from the start in order to try to not go too wide into the first turn, but with Noblety also a horse that likes to run in front inside of him and most importantly with stretching out Royal Punisher having just led from start to finish in a sprint and unlikely to slow down enough to relax and run much slower today in the early stages, the hotly contested, and hot, early pace scenario may hand the race to Joshua's Dream on a silver platter, and since he opens at 8 to 1 he starts the day as a "KEY BET". With 9 wins in 21 races in his career, 7 of those coming this year in 13 starts, Joshua's Dream can be labeled a "WIN" type, and having already won at this Non-winners of 1x allowance level, three back on 9/7 at Del Mar, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer puts the gelding he claimed on 8/1 for just $20K in for the optional $40K claiming price here, hoping to get the winners' share of the hefty $75K purse ($45K) as well as the $40K claiming price if someone else wants this excellent gelding. With Rosario aboard for 3 of his last 4 wins including one just 3 weeks ago, at this distance here at Santa Anita, Joshua's Dream appears to be very tough to beat in this situation, and better still very easy to bet.

Deal Breaker won nicely down the hillside turf course on 10/22 in his most recent start, his 2nd since coming to the U.S. in September, his other stateside start at a mile on the main track at Del Mar and a huge effort when coming within a nose of beating Joshua's Dream. Rafael Bejarano rode Deal Breaker for the first time in victory last out and rides him back, and as he also opens at 8 to 1 odds we have a second horse that demands our attention when considering our wagers in this race as this gelding still has improving to do back around two turns and in his 3rd stateside start.

 

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Today's Racing Digest

Today's Racing Digest

Today's Racing Digest


THIRD RACE - SANTA ANITA OAK TREE Today's Racing Digest
ANALYSIS: Nite Light has been sharp as of late including a 2nd in the
Grade II Hawthorne Gold Cup Oct 3 and a big win over Polytrack in the
Grade III Turfway Park Fall Championship Sept 12. He has good tactical
speed which should play well at this trip and Velazquez knows him well.
'Light is the HF 15a. Mastery figures to go off favored off his win in the
Group I St. Leger Stakes at this trip Sept 12. He is reunited with Dettori
and was 4th in a blanket finish in his lone try over a synthetic surface
March 18. Cloudy's Knight has won two straight vs. Grade III
competition off a year layoff. The 9-year-old has a strong late kick and he
could be dangerous if he handles the Pro-Ride. Father Time has chased
Mastery home in his last two and did win his lone start over Polytrack in
England last year. Ahern was up for his last win June 19 and we would
not rule him out. Man Of Iron won two of his last three starts over
Polytrack in Ireland and Murtagh was up for both of those wins. Class is a
cloud, but he seems to rate an outside look. Returning champion
Muhannak enters this in much poorer form than he did last year and a
repeat would be a surprise. Analysis by Jon Shonk
Distance: 1 3/4 Miles Race Level: Base 200 Race Cond: STK
Conditions: Breeders' Cup Marathon S. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND
UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs.; Older,
126 lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 115 lbs.; Older 125
lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs.
Purse: $500,000
AFTL: 48.3, 1:13.6, 1:38.9 and 2:54.6
Favorites: 30.8% Win; 69.2% in-the-money
Track Profile: None
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
HORSE JOCKEY FIRE WT & AGE HANDICAPPING OFF BEST PREV PAST AVG LAST
(Post Position Order) NUM CHNG SEX RRL RCL + CPR =TOT PER FACTORS EQUIP TROUBLE TRK SUR DIS CLAS RCL CPR
Black Astor Solis ? 101 126+10 5g 205 x 162 F 10d,23 X X 162 205 X 34
Muhannak (Ire) Moore ? 93 126 5g 200 x 138 M 12 X 138 138 200 X 138
Nite Light Velazquez ? 100 126+11 5h 205 205 154 359 F 10d,15a,19,21 X -11 154 160 205 X 137
Cloudy's Knight Homeister 95 126+4 9g 200 200 151 351 R 19,21 X X 157 210 X 151
Father Time (GB) Queally ? x 122-4 3c X x x X 10d,12,19,21 X X X X X x
Mastery (GB) Dettori ? x 122-4 3c X x x X 10d,12,19,21 X X X X X x
Sir Dave Rosario 95 126+2 4g 210 205 139 344 R 10d,21 B 74 149 205 X 111
Eldaafer Bejarano ? 88 126+10 4g 205 200 145 345 R 10d,21 X -12 X 145 205 X 77
Man Of Iron Murtagh ? x 122-4 3c X x x X 10c,12,19 X X X X X x
Gangbuster Desormeaux ? 83 126+6 4c 200 195 103 298 R X 152 152 195 X 123
FRACTIONAL CHART ORDER OF FINISH AND AVERAGE TIMES
(This is not a Selection)
1: Black Astor ET: :48.8, 1:14.2, 1:39.5 and 2:54.8 (Expected Times with a 0 variant)
2: Nite Light AT: :48.4, 1:13.7, 1:39.1 and 2:55.0 (Average Times for mid-level races)
3: Cloudy?s Knight and Sir Dave (tie) AFTL: :48.3, 1:13.6, 1:38.9 and 2:54.6 (Average Times for this level)
RACE APPRAISAL
HORSE COMMENTS Black Astor won the 12 furlong Grade II Sunset 'Cap on turf off the bench
July 19, then was 10th at that level on the grass Aug 30. Solis knows him
well, he makes his third start off the bench and figures to be a forward
factor at the very least. The surface switch has not been a winning move
for his barn, though, and we'll look elsewhere for the winner.
Muhannak (Ire) just got up to win this event last year, but has not hit the
board in six starts this year overseas. He has won two straight prior to his
win last year and would light up the tote with a repeat.
Nite Light likes to run on or near the lead and held well when 2nd in the
Grade II Hawthorne Gold Cup in the mud Oct 3. He won over Polytrack in
the Grade III Turfway Park Fall Championship Sept 12 and Velazquez
knows him well. We've noticed in his last two starts that he likes to look
around when running, but he seems to rate a chance in this event off that
big score over the synthetic.
Cloudy's Knight continues to win races at the Grade III level as a 9-yearold
including the grassy Grade III Sycamore Oct 22. He usually lays far
back and makes one run and 12 furlongs has been no problem. He has
earned over $2.2 million in his career and merits contender status.
Father Time (GB) has finished behind neighbor Mastery in his last two
starts. He did win a Group II June 19, though, and does own a win over
Polytrack. He was 4th only beaten 3 1/2 lengths at this trip last time out
Sept 12 and Ahern was up for that June 19 win. Count him "in".
Mastery (GB) has earned over $1 million this year including a win in the
Group I St. Leger Stakes at this trip Sept 12. Dettori was up for his
previous four starts and was 4th in a blanket finish in his lone start over
synthetic March 18. Give him a long look.
Sir Dave rallied to just miss in the grassy Grade II Del Mar 'Cap Aug 30,
then was no match in the Grade I Clement L. Hirsch Oct 11. He did have
a strong pace to set up his rally Aug 30 and was 7th in his lone start over a
synthetic surface Aug 5. We'll take a stand against him.
Eldaafer never got going in the Hawthorne Gold Cup Oct 3. He won the
Grade II Brooklyn 'Cap in the slop over Nite Light (above) June 5, but has
gone the wrong way since. He appears to be an outsider.
Man of Iron has won two of his last three starts since switching over to
Polytrack in Ireland. The KY-bred was 4th in his lone Stakes over a
synthetic Oct 2, but Murtagh was up for those two wins. We wouldn't rule
him out.
Gangbuster has finished in the Superfecta in his last four starts over
synthetics including a distant 4th in the Turfway Park Fall Championship
Sept 12. He was a distant 2nd at this trip June 27 and Kent D. was up for
that huge win in the Fort Harrod Stakes April 10. Still, the former claimer
seems best used in the exotics if at all.
Black Astor ( L.Lewis/A.Solis = 11 1-1-1 )
5G - Black Minnaloushe(15%T,12%S,12%M) - Bagasse by Sunshine Forever
TRAINER STATS:
LAST 15: (20.0%) 15 3-1-2 SYN RTE: (28.6%) 7 2-2-1
T/D: (3.6%) 28 1-1-3 3rd 90+: (17.6%) 17 3-2-4
60+: (0.0%) 11 0-1-3 DOWN: (14.3%) 14 2-1-4 LAST 10 FIRE: 48, 101, 99, 99, 89, 92, 92, 94, 79, 83
WORKS: OSA Oct 24 1:11.6h ft (1/22) OSA Oct 12 1:00.0h ft (3/27)
SA Sep 28 :49.0h ft (19/32)
NOTES: vied,stalked,gave way 8/30/09 inside,held gamely 7/19/09
fought back rail lane 1/19/09 speed,inside,2nd best 12/3/08
OSA SYN ROUTES 0 0-0-0 ALL SYN ROUTES 0 0-0-0
DIST/ POS/FLD TRNR TK TRK RACE RACE FIN POS/ MORN ACTL TRK Pos1 Pos2 Pos3 Pos4 Today's LST PAC FNL LxClm
TRK DATE&RACE SURF WINNERS WGT JCKY CD BIAS TYPE CONDITIONS RCL CPR BTN LNGH LINE ODDS VAR 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH FINAL FRT LF RAT EQUIP
DMR 8/30/09-8 1 3/8T 9/10-1 116 L.Lws/J.Tlo FM UP14 STK Gr 2 R205 C34 10-24.35 ML4 A7.0 +3 2-46.8 2-1:11.8 3-1:38.0 10-2:04.0 3:00.6? 56.6 188 72 L
HOL 7/19/09-3 1 1/2T 3/4 -1 114 L.Lws/J.Tlo FM DN STK Gr 2 R205 C162 1-2.00 ML8 A6.2 +2 1-49.0 1-1:14.4 1-1:39.6 1-2:02.8 2:54.8? 52.0 122 153 L
SA 1/19/09-8 1 1/4T 8/10-2 116 L.Lws/M.Sih FM UP8 STK Gr 2 R205 C137 5-2.30 ML15 A19 +6 1-47.9 1-1:13.0 1-1:38.0 2-2:02.0 2:55.0? 53.0 168 150 LF
HOL 12/3/08-4 1 1/16T 1/5 -1 124 L.Lws/A.Sls FM UP20 ALW C R185 C138 2-1.00 ML5 A5.2 +3 1-47.8 1-1:13.0 1-1:38.0 1-2:02.0 2:55.2? 53.2 167 147 LF
HOL 10/29/08-5 1T 3/7 -0 124 L.Lws/J.Tlo FM UP15 AOC 80 NW3-X R180 C130 3-1.80 ML6 A9.9 +6 2-48.2 2-1:13.4 2-1:38.4 3-2:02.4 2:55.6? 53.2 156 141 LF
DMR 8/20/08-7 1 1/16T 6/10-2 115 L.Lws/J.Tlo FM UP7 STK $80K R175 C114 9-9.80 ML15 A23 +3 8-49.1 7-1:14.6 7-1:40.0 10-2:04.2 2:56.7? 52.5 114 125 L

THIS POST DOES NOT COPY AND PASTE WELL, DUH ! ! BETTER TO CLICK LINK AND LOOK AT THE RACING DIGEST

 

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Joe Takach

Joe Takach

Joe Takach

RACE 2---MISS McCALL (best bet)
Simply can?t go past the huge number this Mitchell 3 yo filly put up when breaking her maiden over this poly 26 days ago. Has worked 3 times since with Tyler Baze remounting and a repeat of last is all that?s needed.

 

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THE WINNERS FORUM

THE WINNERS FORUM

Handicapping Picks for 11/06/2009

The Sultan has his Friday card ready for the gate
Joe K will also provide his expert selections
Get ready to rock and roll with the
Famed Stallion Battalion
Grab the hottest race horse handicappers
For the unbelievable low price $3
Joe K?s Friday release looks like a dandy
The newest member of the Stallion Battalion
Looking to bang out a home run
His early release now at the starters gate
Visit www.thewinnersforum.com
To purchase Friday?s exciting Breeders? Cup Specials
Friday selection by Tournament Joe K
Race 4 - Lilly Langtry (3/1) - Irish bred filly owns the field's most wins (3) and has more career earnings ($952k) than all others combined. Her resume includes Group 2 and Group 3 victories

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Dave Litfin **AQUEDUCT**

Dave Litfin **AQUEDUCT**

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Muhaaseb (2nd race)


First Race


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1. The Vin Man 2. Ruff and Ready 3. Hedge Fund

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THE VIN MAN has won just one of 14 starts this year, but gets some class relief dropping from open $20k claimer to restricted $12,500 ranks; third start back from layoff. RUFF AND READY hadn't sprinted for a long time before rallying for third in the slop opening day with blinkers added; field's top earner has back class to be very dangerous. HEDGE FUND makes 22nd start of the year for outfit that keeps 'em running; figures close off his last race on a fast track two back.

Second Race


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1. Muhaaseb 2. Five Aces 3. Six Clicks

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MUHAASEB chased from the break, dropped back on the turn and came again to be a clear second in promising debut; strong second-out trainer. FIVE ACES sold for over 28 times sire's stud fee at Ocala auction earlier this year; improved workout over the track Saturday. SIX CLICKS (profitable debut trainer) and MORNING LINE ($700k colt by Tiznow) merit consideration pending appraisal of tote action and pre-race appearances.

Third Race


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1. Gold Medallion 2. Hudson Landing 3. Trippo

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GOLD MEDALLION has improved double-digits on the Beyer scale each time out, capped by a two-move effort for second when switched to turf with blinkers on; Fair Hill-based trainer off to good start at the meet. HUDSON LANDING lost position steadying sharply on the turn, came on again to get the lead midstretch before being run down late first time on grass; steps up from maiden claimers. TRIPPO received trouble comments for all three starts during the summer on dirt and turf, the latest vs. off-the-turf Pilgrim winner Eskendereya, who runs in the BC Juvenile; working well for return.

Fourth Race


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1. Credit Limit 2. River Fancy 3. Imandra

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CREDIT LIMIT has been idle for two months since flattening out vs. the hard-knocking Spina, but won off works as a first-time starter and also just missed with a big figure first time out this year; takes a drop. RIVER FANCY comes out of stakes sprints on turf and in the slop; very consistent through four races on fast tracks this year, likely to rebound. IMANDRA ran to strong wet-track bloodlines beating restricted claimers in off-the-turfer last out; outdueled by Credit Limit, but that was 14 months ago.

Fifth Race


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1. Extra Zip 2. Minnie Punt 3. Karakorum Legend

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EXTRA ZIP has emerged victorious in his last three starts in this statebred condition, and has won both previous starts over Big A turf; hard to go past in this spot. MINNIE PUNT came again gamely for maiden win on this course first time on turf, and won a N.Y. Stallion race at boxcar odds two starts later; sharp try last out when nosed by Solvent, subsequently a close third in the Mohawk. KARAKORUM LEGEND won his N1x condition when stretched out to this distance at Saratoga; freshened after good effort for third behind Redefined, a win machine sprinting on Belmont turf.

Sixth Race


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1. Golden Artemis 2. Blah Blah Blah 3. Donna's Sandee

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There are a number of suspect-looking fillies with early speed in this field, but the edge among them may belong to GOLDEN ARTEMIS, who takes a significant drop in claiming price after holding well for second vs. 3-2 Imandra (see 4th race); not much to come running at her late. Indeed, BLAH BLAH BLAH may be the only closer in the match-up who is fast enough to make presence felt; returns for solid layoff barn. DONNA'S SANDEE has won one of 33 starts, and is 0 for 21 on dirt, but looms a necessary exotics inclusion in this situation.

Seventh Race


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1. The Mayor 2. Orthodontist 3. Sapphire Eyes

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THE MAYOR stalked the pace, bid for the lead into the stretch and came up short when brought back from a seven-week layoff opening day; two best Beyers have come in the slop. ORTHODONTIST checked at the break and wound up beaten only two lengths for second behind a runaway winner in turf sprint debut back in July; been shopping for a spot lately. SAPPHIRE EYES had a useful tightener first time out this year vs. Wild Conga, who was a game come-again repeater here Sunday; most of his races in 2008 were good enough to prevail vs. these.

Eighth Race


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1. Boxitup 2. Blue Hill Bay 3. Goldie Lane

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BOXITUP missed most of the turf racing season, but improved sharply to win an open $25k claimer second time back, and has run well over this course in the past; showed the ability to string several good-figure races together last year. BLUE HILL BAY has run a number of good races on Big A turf, notably 64-1 upset on the lead with this apprentice rider last November; handles firm or soft ground. GOLDIE LANE has won four of her last five starts, including all three with David Cohen aboard; adaptable to various pace scenarios. ELEGANT BESS and SENTIMENTAL UNION have money chances, but break from tough outside posts with short run to the first turn.

 

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HandiGambling the Classic-By Dan Illman

HandiGambling the Classic-By Dan Illman

HandiGambling the Classic
This week's HandiGambling exercise is the Breeders' Cup Classic, the ninth race at Santa Anita on Saturday for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/4 miles on the Pro-Ride racing surface.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Past performances are available on the previous blog entry.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

The Ladies' Classic - Classic daily double looks like an interesting bet so I'll go that route with this week's challenge:

Music Notehas been handled wonderfully by Godolphin in 2009. After a disappointing first run in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap, Music Note was found to be stiff in behind, and the folks in blue backed off until Saratoga. I had to admit that I wasn't sure what we were going to get from Music Note in the Grade 1 Ballerina in the slop against sprint stalwarts Indian Blessing and Informed Decision, but I never would have guessed that the 2008 Coaching Club American Oaks (10 furlongs) winner would outsprint the big two going into the turn en route to a runaway victory.
After that win, Godolphin could have even considered a tilt in the Filly and Mare Sprint this coming weekend, but they are more comfortable with their daughter of A.P. Indy going a route o

f ground, and she rewarded their confidence with a facile final prep over next-out graded winner Unbridled Belle in the Beldame at Belmont Park on October 3.
The major question is whether she'll handle a synthetic track as well as she races on dirt, but it wasn't like she was disgraced when third to Zenyatta in last year's Ladies' Classic, and one could argue that she's fresher and more mature right now.
She's tactical enough to race in the second flight, and should be gearing up to challenge likely pacesetter Careless Jewel on the turn. Barring that bad performance in the Phipps, she's been remarkably consistent.

I have more confidence in Music Note's chances on Friday than I do with anybody in Saturday's battle royale. So, I'll spread a little bit in the Classic and hope for the best.

I gave a very tepid nod to Rip Van Winklebased on his solid campaign in Europe, but I have to admit that I'm very concerned about his foot issues. He's had problems all year, and is still a tiny bit of a question mark at ten furlongs. I think he's just as talented as Raven's Pass, last year's European Classic winner, but he's hard to totally trust at what could be underlaid odds.

I mentioned Twice Over's credentials in a previous blog, and don't want to go overboard hyping him once again, but he looks like a solid chance at a good price. He needs to run the race of his life to win this race, but he's always had ability, and it looks like Henry Cecil has his confidence back at 100%. He's a true ten-furlong runner.

Summer Bird has had an excellent campaign, grabbing the Belmont, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and he's shown much-improved early interest since Tim Ice added blinkers in the "Test of the Champion." The Pro-Ride question rears its ugly head once again as Summer Bird was taken away from Southern California last year after injuring himself while training over synthetics. Was the injury caused by a dislike for the synthetics, or was it simply a matter of a young horse going through growing pains? We'll find out Saturday afternoon, but I can't throw him out based on his recent form.

Quality Road couldn't stay with Summer Bird in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and it's possible that ten furlongs is a bit beyond his scope. He still has shown a lot of potential during an injury-marred campaign, and his good early speed could allow him to get the jump on his main competition. The synthetic question is here as well, but if he stays near his 12-1 morning line odds, he's worth the gamble.

I have a lot of respect for the other Classic contenders, but I won't be spinning the wheel.

Mine That Bird makes his second start off throat surgery, and always has a puncher's chance, but he's had a lot of hard races this year, and may be past his peak form.

Colonel Johncan certainly win this. He's shown a lot of grit in 2009, returning from a pulled muscle in his hind end and a bout with pleural pneumonia to win the Wickerr, and just miss in the Goodwood It seems like he's rounding into his best game, and he could certainly spoil my HandiGambling party.

Zenyatta is a wonderful mare, and my heart will be rooting for her to keep her unbeaten streak intact, but she's going to have to improve off her recent Beyers, has never raced at 10 furlongs, and will probably be overbet. My heart says 'yes,' but my wallet will stay closed.

I think that Richard's Kidmay be even better over longer distances, and he's been a revelation since adding blinkers, switching to synthetics, and coming under the tutelage of Bob Baffert. You know he'll be with Mine That Bird and Zenyatta early. Let's see if he can outkick them. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if he does.

Gio Pontipreviously won four Grade 1 races on turf, and was beaten by a combination of the 12-furlong distance and boggy ground in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic on October 3. He has a nice burst of speed, is proven over the Pro-Ride, and would be a very deserving winner. I wonder if he is a bit over the top after a tough stretch of races.

Einsteinis one of my all-time favorite horses, and he showed his affinity for the Pro-Ride when winning the Big Cap. His Pacific Classic was good, and his tactical speed should have him in a comfortable spot heading into the final turn. He would be another feel-good story as a hard-hitting oldtimer getting his just desserts.

Girolamohas potential, and may turn out to be a big time 4-year-old, but I wonder if this is a case of too much too soon. He changed back to his wrong lead once he made the front from Kensei in the Jerome, has never raced around two turns, and has never run on synthetics.

Regal Ransom will likely be among the early leaders, but he walked on the lead in the Super Derby, and I'm not sure if he got enough out of that race, his first since the Kentucky Derby, to have the proper foundation to beat this kind of field.

Awesome Gem is a joy to own, but doesn't win very often. He may be at his best on wet dirt at this point in his career, and is another that might appreciate more distance.

Here's how I'll play it:

$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Rip Van Winkle (7-10)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Twice Over (7-5)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Summer Bird (7-3)
$25 Daily Double - Music Note with Quality Road (7-12)

Best of luck to all.

I don't really have many clever opinions during the weekend. I like Forever Together to repeat in the Filly and Mare Turf, and she'll be bet hard.

One possible longshot is Vale of Yorkin the Juvenile, a speedy colt adding Lasix for Godolphin that may try to take them on a merry chase on the front end.

After initially discarding her earlier in the week, I'm going to include She Be Wild in the Juvenile Fillies. She was in and among horses heading into the far turn of the Alcibiades, and may have gotten a lot out of that race.