NBA FRI 11-6-09 early thoughts - value hunting

[Joe_Vienna]

my early leans

Nets @ Sixers O190,5
Wizards @ Pacers U207,5
Hawks @ Bobcats O177,5
Spurs @ Blazers O184

BOL kurby
Joe

 

[Fathomable]

denver -1 and ny under 205 standing out to me.

 

[ari]

Atlanata -3 popped out to me. Unfortunately it is because I have lost against them at least twice already this year. Interested in opinions if others think this line is fishy - I thought it would be more like -5.

# Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
# Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
# Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
# Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
# Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.
# Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Don't think it's a fishy line. Hawks have always had tough time on the road against Bobcats (2-8 SUATS), but they've also played as dogs and the only time they were fav, they won. 3rd game in 4 days, 4th road game before going home, div opponent.
Bobcats played monday (that could have been a bad thing, but they played badly before, so they should improve, if anything), had time to prepare, Bell should look better, probably gonna outrebound Hawks and play one of the Browns defensive grinders. And public is on Hawks and over.

I'd actually bet them (bigger) if they were +5

 

[PeePee]

Char +3
Mia +1
Mem +10

Situational plays.
Atlanta is hot but 4th road game in 6 days, third in four days. Gotta be worn out.
Same with Den. Mia is also, but at home.
Laker is off 2 OT road games, also third game in 4 days. Not to mention Bynum is Gasol will be out.

 

[barts185]

As I said in yesterday's thread, locked in TOR +5, would take +4 or better. One of my favorite situations plays against against NOR here.

Leans on
WAS small, will play at +1 or better
POR
PHO/DEN under
LAC/GSW under small
MEM

 

[pkkingster15]

My only play so far today is

Warriors -4.

I again won't have much time to cap today, so I'll probably follow a couple of the forum plays. BOL everyone, let's meet at the window again tonight!

 

[bleedingpurple]

I am leaning towards Boston and Pheonix OVER the 206. Looking at a 112 - 104 type of game. I know the Celts are playing great D but I think Pheonix will get their 100 points and the Celts Vets should be able to score at will.

 

[axp59]

my eye sees...

atl/cha u179.5
det/orl u194.5
was/ind o207.5
den/mia u205.5
mil/min o184.5
noh -4
lac/gs 0218


only at these numbers and without in-depth cap routine. will narrow this down as the day progresses.

off to work. :director:

 

[BIGWave]

NO-5 now.......
BOS-10.5 against Phoenix. A game that BOS may get up for against one of the top teams (record wise) in the association right now - at home - on a Friday night............

Wish I wasn't working nights. :0corn

 

[axp59]

my eye sees...

atl/cha u179.5
det/orl u194.5 adlock:
was/ind o207.5
den/mia u205.5 adlock:
mil/min o184.5
noh -4 adlock:
lac/gs 0218 adlock:


only at these numbers and without in-depth cap routine. will narrow this down as the day progresses.

off to work. :director:

adlock: represents I've locked the respective games, NOT that games are a lock to cover. Busy day for me today. BOL fellas. Keep the streak hot. You don't need to win big money everyday, you just need to end the day in the black.

 

[mdc144]

I had was/ind under 208 ?? hmmmm

 

[Randercity]

6-2 so far on early looks...

6-2 so far on early looks...

and playing four tonight...

IND Under 207.5 * Single Play *
BOSTON Under 206.5 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
NYK +8 * Single Play *
LAKERS Under 209 ** DOUBLE PLAY **

Pacers had planned on running this year, but with injuries and the slow start by TJ Ford have altered those plans. I can't see the PACERS being an up tempo team until Murphy is back and Granger is not limping due to his heel.

BOSTON is at home and WILL control the tempo. SUNS are coming off a simply horrible game, J RICH and Grant Hill went scoreless, most starter were benched by the start of the 4th. Amare had a good game, but little else. CELTS will keep this game at their pace, not going to try and run with the SUNS.

CLEV is in funk and "gave away" a game last night at home vs CHI. JAMES tweaked his ankle, but I'm sure it won't slow him, but the KNICKS will be up for the CAVS and wanting to show Lebron WHY he should move to NY. CAVS may win this game, but it will be tight.

MEM is running and gunning and coming to L.A. AI has always given the LAKERS fits (as do most lil quick guards) and I expect him to have a good game. With Gasol/Bynum out, many may think the LAKERS will run with the GRIZZ. Not me. BYNUM helps by getting the break started with REB, and he also runs the floor great for a big man. He's a finisher on the break they won't have tonight. Also, LAKERS may work the ball down low into ODOM/ARTEST, or become a jump shooting team which will lower the scoring. I doubt this game gets to 200.

Good luck! :SIB

 

[BIGWave]

ax,

Sorry pal - just to cofirmn - you have locked those in and are going to narrow it down to...........?????
Top play or one to add some moola to????

Have a great day - hope all goes smoothly.

P.S. Congrats on your Yankees win.

 

[CoFred]

Alright guys, you're the go-to-guys for questions so I pose a couple.

What does everybody think of OKC +6.5 and also the Denver +1? Thanks guys.

 

[axp59]

ax,

Sorry pal - just to cofirmn - you have locked those in and are going to narrow it down to...........?????
Top play or one to add some moola to????

Have a great day - hope all goes smoothly.

P.S. Congrats on your Yankees win.

NP BWD,

sorry for the confusion. My final card looks like this.

det/orl u194.5

den/mia u205.5

noh -4

lac/gs 0218

No more since I won't be able to place any wagers due to my schedule. All are action plays only.
The time has not arrived for the :bigun:

BOL with your action.

 

[axp59]

Alright guys, you're the go-to-guys for questions so I pose a couple.

What does everybody think of OKC +6.5 and also the Denver +1? Thanks guys.

OKC - I personally have a lean but all the value is on HOU. almost $20.00 per 100 @ $100 each. So while OKC is a decent play, there is absolutely no value in it. The risk you expose your money to isn't worth the trouble. IMHO

will look at DEN for ya.

 

[axp59]

Alright guys, you're the go-to-guys for questions so I pose a couple.

What does everybody think of OKC +6.5 and also the Denver +1? Thanks guys.

DEN IMHO

flip a coin for this one.

if that coin comes up DEN, good value
if that coin comes up MIA, huge negative value.

 

[joe_shmoe]

I like the over in the clippers/gsw for the 1H.

Also liking the bobcats as homedogs tonight.

 

[BillyBatts]

leans

leans

had a nice win on the jazz last nite
15-10 YTD
early leans
nets and under
char and over
bos-pho over
miami
toronto
okc-hou over
Have alot so need to do alot of capping. just remember with these home teams with 2 or less spreads....the friday nite lights factor. main reason for leans with bobs, heat. good luck guys