MONDAY
- Thread starter THUNDER
- Start date
- Mar 2, 2006
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Good call on the Steelers FH. Rough week:shrug: I wish I could have tailed all your other winners in the Past. Helluva record. Other than tonight Excellent capping!!!:mj06:
Bit of a silly question, rubiertz...I always thought the first rule of sports gambling was that the amount someone wagers is none of anyone else's business...
...Does it matter to you at all if he lost $20 or $20, 000? :shrug:
Anyway...
...I've been meanhing to say this for a little while, and now seems as good a time as any...
...The maths of betting %'s just doesn't add up.
Well, that's not 100% true...but it will only work in your benefit if you constantly WIN week after week. (ie. You're bank keeps going up.)
A couple of very simplistic, yet representative examples...
...you start your bank at 100% [obviously!]...you take 10 bets of 5% each...oh crap, they all lose.
You now have a bank of 50%.
Week 2, you take another 10 bets of 5% each...YAY, they all win...bad news for you is that despite going 10-10 in 2 weeks your back stands @ 75%. (Without factoring in 'juice' to keep it simple)
Or...in a case more like yours now...you win those first 10 bets in week 1...current bank becomes 150%. :00hour
You then LOSE the same 10 bets (of 5% each) the following week...your back down to that 75% mark, again despite going 10-10.
Point being, in reality, every losing week you have from now until the end, you're losing more than 'necessary'.
If you're using a % of your original bank for each bet, then sorry, yeah, that makes much more sense...but I'm sure I've seen you say that you play a % of the current bank.
This most certainly isn't a 'bash' of any kind...definately not some sort of kick when you're down...
...just saying, if it was me, I wouldn't be all that keen needing to win more games than I lost to keep things heading upwards.
...Of course, as I said at the start, if you keep things heading upwards each and every week, then disregard! :142smilie
Good luck for the rest. :toast:
CURRENT BR IS AFTER WITHDRAWLS MR CRISTO -IF I LOSE I DONT TAKE WITHDRAWLS OUT - AND IF I WIN WHICH I DO ALOT- 10K ONE WEEK I MAY ONLY TAKE 5K OUT-SO ITS LIKE IVE SAID 100 TIMES ITS MY CURRENT BR
GL
Yeah, well, whatever works for you...
...just throwing the numbers out there.
Just seems to me a pretty random way of going about it...
...you may take $x out, you may not...makes it pointless making %'s in the first place when they are constantly changing.
Anyway...It's not my money, so I don't have to understand. :0corn
...just throwing the numbers out there.
Just seems to me a pretty random way of going about it...
...you may take $x out, you may not...makes it pointless making %'s in the first place when they are constantly changing.
Anyway...It's not my money, so I don't have to understand. :0corn
this explanation is misleading...and doesn't tell the whole story.
because it's no different than using a unit system with the same original bank roll. if you play 1 to 5 units and go 10-10, you may end up on the losing side because you hit your lower unit plays and lose your higher unit plays. the only way you go 10-10 and even up (minus juice) is if you play the same amount on every play. sure some people do this. most don't. most cappers (all?) vary their units according to strength of play.
so if you're looking to go 60%win/40%loss (considered a good season) and play the same amount every game to end up with a few % gain (after juice) on your original bank roll, then you may play it as a safer investment and start out with 10K per say and end up with 10.5K per say. all that trouble to earn $500 bucks because it's statistically favorable. but don't forget, if you wanna talk stats, the law of average says people go 50%. so what do you end up with? safe stats and no gain (slight loss on juice).
but if you're going to vary your bets by more or less units to try and win a sizeable amount, then the above analogy about going 10-10 ending up with only 75% of your bank roll left is pointless. because you may end up with that result anyway using either method (unit system using the original same bank roll or % of current bank roll).
fact is if you hit your bigger plays more often, then your bankroll will grow using either method. the only reason why people use a method/system is to have "some" form of so called money management and not blow it on one game per say. and the only way to be statistically and mathematically sound in gambling sports is if you use the same amount per bet approach and attempt to go no less than ~55% to cover your butt on the juice.
That is exactly 100% correct. :SIB ** (Well, nearly.)
But that it just plain silly...it obviously depends on how much a "unit" you bet.
A 5% 'unit' at the $10k figure that seems to be thrown around a lot lately...is $500.
Therefore a mere 1 unit win a week for the year = an extra $26k.
Hardly trouble for nothing.
Not sure you can possibly argue the 'risk/reward' theory when someone is betting (at times) upwards of 140% of a bankroll on any given week!
As I alluded to, "some" form of money management becomes extremely loose when values are constantly changing.
Great, you win, skim off the top...what happens after a losing week? Do you deposit back in, top back up to 100%, or do you bet a % of the new, reduced 'bank' across the board? :shrug:
** Oh, and one of the biggest misnomers in sports betting is that you need to win 55%...it's 52.63% @ a standard 1.90...and of course books like Pinnacle (and others) with 1.95 lines and very fluid lines with often greater prices available make it even less.
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That is exactly 100% correct. :SIB ** (Well, nearly.)
But that it just plain silly...it obviously depends on how much a "unit" you bet.
A 5% 'unit' at the $10k figure that seems to be thrown around a lot lately...is $500.
Therefore a mere 1 unit win a week for the year = an extra $26k.
Hardly trouble for nothing.
Not sure you can possibly argue the 'risk/reward' theory when someone is betting (at times) upwards of 140% of a bankroll on any given week!
As I alluded to, "some" form of money management becomes extremely loose when values are constantly changing.
Great, you win, skim off the top...what happens after a losing week? Do you deposit back in, top back up to 100%, or do you bet a % of the new, reduced 'bank' across the board? :shrug:
** Oh, and one of the biggest misnomers in sports betting is that you need to win 55%...it's 52.63% @ a standard 1.90...and of course books like Pinnacle (and others) with 1.95 lines and very fluid lines with often greater prices available make it even less.
YES MR CRISTO IF I LOSE I WAGER OFF THE LOWER BR -AS STATED MANY TIMES BEFORE- AND I HAVNT HAD TO REDOPOSIT IN ANY SPORT VERY LONG TIME REALLY DONT UNDERSTAND-UR POINT BUT WHATEVER AND BOTH OF MY LOCALS PAY SO ALOT OF TIMES I GUESS THATS A WITHDRAWL -AND THERE IS NOTHING LOSE ABOUT MY MM IT IS VERY DETAILED MY LEDGERS ARE PRETTY EXACT- BUT DOES IT MATTER- AS FAR AS YOUR UNIT THING I WOULD GET BORED WITH IT -JUST LIKE AT A CASINO I PLAY PROGRESSIVE I DONT BET THE SAME EVERY HAND ACCEPT THIS ISNT LUCK- I KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IM DOING JUST LIKE IN BIZ I KNOW WHAT IM DOING- I DO NOT KNOW ONE SHARP THAT BETS FLAT UNITS AND I KNOW A FEW
BUT WHATEVER WORKS- GO TEAM
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Yeah, sorry...I didn't mean to turn a perfectly good thread into gambling theory 101...
:toast:
:toast:
Without a constant value.....then surely stated % results each week are inaccurate / misleading
Without a constant value.....then surely stated % results each week are inaccurate / misleading
WHAT ARE U TALKING ABOUT
IM DONE ADDRESSING THIS BY ANY BODYS ACCOUNTING I WIN ALOT IN EVERY SPORT EVERY YEAR YOU DONT LIKE THE WAY I DO THINGS STAY AWAY- OR BETTER YET FADE
