Toledo (4-5) at Central Michigan (7-2)

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Toledo (4-5) at Central Michigan (7-2)






DATE & TIME: Wednesday, November 11th, 8:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Kelly/Shorts Stadium (30,255) -- Mount Pleasant, Michigan. Television: ESPN2. Home Record: Toledo 2-2, CMU 3-0. Away Record: Toledo 2-2, CMU 4-2. Neutral Record: Toledo 0-1, CMU 0-0. Conference Record: Toledo 2-3, CMU 5-0. Series Record: Series tied, 17-17-3.

GAME NOTES: The Central Michigan Chippewas will try to remain perfect in Mid- American Conference action when they host the Toledo Rockets this Wednesday evening at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.

The Rockets head into this matchup off a bye week, which was surely needed for Toledo, which has lost two straight games, and three of its last four matchups. The last time the Rockets were on the field the team suffered a 31-24 setback to Miami-Ohio, falling to 2-3 in conference action. It was also a road setback, which left Toledo with a 2-2 mark as the visitor.

As for the Chippewas, they were also idle this past weekend after suffering a 31-10 setback to Boston College. The loss snapped Central Michigan's seven- game winning streak, but despite the non-conference loss, the Chippewas come into this game with a flawless 5-0 ledger in MAC action.

The series between Toledo and Central Michigan is currently knotted at 17-17-3 as the Chippewas have won the last four meetings, including a thrilling 24-23 victory over the Rockets this past season.

The Rockets possess a very dangerous offensive attack, which is balanced with a solid ground game and a lethal aerial assault. The team is churning out a respectable 144.2 ypg on the ground, but it is the team's passing game that has done the trick all year long. Aaron Opelt, who has missed some time with an injury, comes into this contest with 1,863 yards and 15 touchdowns against six interceptions. Eric Page and Stephen Williams are two strong options at the disposal of Opelt, as Page is leading the team with 65 catches for 909 yards and seven scores, while Williams comes into this matchup with 60 receptions, 884 yards and five touchdowns. Doing the majority of the work on the ground has been DuJuane Collins, who is pacing the team with 733 yards and eight scores. In the recent setback to Miami-Ohio, Opelt was back on the field for the Rockets, but threw for just 79 yards and one touchdown before exiting the contest. Austin Dantin and Alex Pettee both saw time under center, but neither caused any considerable damage against the RedHawks. Collins rushed for 82 yards and one touchdown in the loss, but it was Adomis Thomas who led the way for Toledo, rushing for 107 yards on 13 totes.

What has crippled Toledo's season thus far has been the play of the defense, which is being demolished for 424.9 total ypg, and that has led to an equally poor 37.4 ppg. Toledo has surrendered 23 rushing touchdowns on the season and another 20 scores through the air, but the main problem has come against the run, as the team is allowing 177.8 ypg on the ground. A lack of big plays has also been a problem for the Rockets, as the team heads into this matchup with just 16 takeaways and 17 sacks. In the loss to the RedHawks, the Rockets were torched through the air, as Miami-Ohio finished with 344 passing yards. Archie Donald led the way for the defense with 10 tackles, while Barry Church added eight stops, one sack and forced one fumble. Donald and Church are currently number one and two in tackles on the team and come into this game with 96 and 82 stops, respectively.

The Chippewas have plenty of talented players, but none are more important to the success of Central Michigan than Dan LeFevour. The quarterback has completed an impressive 68.5 percent of his throws this season and that has gone for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns. LeFevour has plenty of options to throw to, but the best target has to be Antonio Brown, who is leading the team with 56 receptions, 605 yards and seven touchdowns. What is special about both these players is that they also lead the rushing attack for CMU. LeFevour is currently pacing the squad with 548 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, while Brown has contributed 285 rushing yards. The top tailback on the team has been Carl Volny, but he comes into this game with only 264 yards. Unfortunately the last time the Chippewas were on the field the team only accumulated 311 total yards. The ground game was held to just 93 yards on 3.0 yards per attempt. LeFevour was limited to just 26 yards on the ground and only threw for 152 yards on 20-of-34 efficiency. LeFevour also tossed an interception and was sacked once.

On top of the success of the offense the defense has also performed at a high level for CMU, holding the opposition to just 339.6 total ypg, and that has led to just 16.9 ppg. The team has done an excellent job against the run, holding opponents to just 117.8 ypg on just 3.5 yards per attempt. Surprisingly the defense has only forced eight turnovers on the season (four interceptions and four fumbles), but has enjoyed mild success pressuring the quarterback and comes into this matchup with 17 sacks. The Chippewas had one of their worst outings of the season against Boston College, as the defense allowed 412 total yards. Even more shocking was the play against the run, as CMU was pounded for 150 yards and two touchdowns on 4.5 yards per attempt. Nick Bellore, who is leading the team with 88 tackles, racked up nine stops in the loss to BC.

Do not expect a similar performance by Central Michigan. The Chippewas might have trouble outside of the MAC, but against conference teams they are clearly the cream of the crop.

Predicted Outcome: Central Michigan 48, Toledo 24
 
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Central Michigan Chippewas (4-2) (1-0 H) vs Toledo Rockets (2-3) (1-1 A)

Central Michigan Chippewas (4-2) (1-0 H) vs Toledo Rockets (2-3) (1-1 A)

Central Michigan Chippewas (4-2) (1-0 H) vs Toledo Rockets (2-3) (1-1 A)

Game Time: 8:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, November 11

Stadium: Kelly-Shorts Stadium Surface: Turf




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Toledo Rockets HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 2 - 3 2 - 2 4 - 5 2 - 3 2 - 2 4 - 5 3 - 2 2 - 1 5 - 3
Last 5 games 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2
YTD vs. Conf. 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Central Michigan Chippewas HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 3 - 0 4 - 2 7 - 2 2 - 0 4 - 2 6 - 2 2 - 0 1 - 4 3 - 4
Last 5 games 1 - 0 3 - 1 4 - 1 1 - 0 2 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 4 1 - 4
YTD vs. Conf. 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 3 2 - 3
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Toledo Rockets 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 0 2 - 3
Central Michigan Chippewas 2 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 0 0 - 2 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Toledo Rockets
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat @PUR 31 - 52 L +13 +10 L -11 0 0 O +-83.0 G
09/11/09 Fri CO 54 - 38 W -6.5 -3.5 W 12.5 54 55 O +-37.0 T
09/19/09 Sat OHST 0 - 38 L -21 -22.5 L -60.5 59 59 U -21.0 T
09/26/09 Sat @FLINTL 41 - 31 W -3 +1 W 11 57 59 O +-13.0 T
10/03/09 Sat @BALLST 37 - 30 W -6 -5 W 2 60 59.5 O +- 7.5 G
10/10/09 Sat WMI 26 - 58 L -7 -7.5 L -39.5 60 63 O +-21.0 T
10/17/09 Sat NIL 20 - 19 W -5 -7 L -6 59.5 61 U -22.0 T
10/24/09 Sat TEMP 24 - 40 L 0 -1 L -17 54 53.5 O +-10.5 T
10/31/09 Sat @MIAOH 24 - 31 L -5.5 -5 L -12 57 58 U -3.0 G


Central Michigan Chippewas
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat @AZ 6 - 19 L +12 +15 W 2 0 0 O +-25.0 G
09/12/09 Sat @MIST 29 - 27 W +15 +14.5 W 16.5 53 50 O +- 6.0 G
09/19/09 Sat ALCORN 48 - 0 W 0 0 W 48 0 0 O +-48.0 T
09/26/09 Sat AKR 48 - 21 W -17 -15.5 W 11.5 53 54.5 O +-14.5 T
10/03/09 Sat @BUFF 20 - 13 W -8 -9.5 L -2.5 55 53 U -20.0 T
10/10/09 Sat EMI 56 - 8 W -24 -24 W 24 53 53.5 O +-10.5 T
10/17/09 Sat @WMI 34 - 23 W -7 -7 W 4 58 58 U -1.0 G
10/24/09 Sat @BG 24 - 10 W -7.5 -9.5 W 4.5 62 61.5 U -27.5 G
10/31/09 Sat @BC 10 - 31 L +3 +5 L -16 52 50 U -9.0 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
10/29/05 Sat TOL 17 CMI 21 +8.5 +7.5 CMI +11.5 NL NL O +-38 T
10/07/06 Sat CMI 42 TOL 20 -2.0 -2.5 TOL --24.5 NL NL O +-62 T
09/08/07 Sat TOL 31 CMI 52 -6.0 -3.0 CMI +18 NL NL O +-83 T
10/25/08 Sat CMI 24 TOL 23 +3.5 +4 TOL +3 NL NL O +-47 T




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
TOL (off) 33.3 23 31 142 4.6 42 27 0.6 354 8.4 496 1.3 1.0
CMI (def) 9.7 12 37 78 2.1 23 12 0.5 118 5.1 196 0.0 0.7
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
TOL (def) 36.0 25 35 158 4.5 41 23 0.6 256 6.2 414 1.0 0.3
CMI (off) 50.7 25 45 236 5.2 25 18 0.7 219 8.8 455 0.3 0.0
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
TOL (off) 28.6 21 31 144 4.6 39 24 0.6 296 7.6 440 1.0 1.2
CMI (def) 16.9 19 34 118 3.5 34 20 0.6 222 6.5 340 0.4 0.4
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
TOL (def) 37.4 23 37 178 4.8 37 20 0.5 247 6.7 425 1.1 0.4
CMI (off) 30.6 23 36 170 4.7 31 21 0.7 221 7.1 391 0.7 0.3



SCORING AVERAGES:

Toledo Rockets (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.0 6.0 13 7.8 12.5 0.0 20.3
POINTS ALLOWED 6.8 11.0 17.8 9.5 8.8 0.0 18.3



Central Michigan Chippewas (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 12.3 22.0 34.3 11.7 4.7 0.0 16.4
POINTS ALLOWED 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 5.0 0.0 7.3



Toledo Rockets (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.8 6.3 13.1 5.8 9.7 0.0 15.5
POINTS ALLOWED 8.2 10.4 18.6 10.3 8.4 0.0 18.7



Central Michigan Chippewas (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.1 11.4 18.5 4.9 7.1 0.0 12
POINTS ALLOWED 2.1 6.4 8.5 4.0 4.3 0.0 8.3



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Toledo Rockets 52 -5.5 22.5
Central Michigan Chippewas 42.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 53.5 UNKNOWN
 

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What bettors need to know: Toledo at Central Michigan

What bettors need to know: Toledo at Central Michigan

What bettors need to know: Toledo at Central Michigan

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas (-17, 59.5)

The MAC doesn't get a lot of attention, but when the Toledo Rockets (4-5 4-5 ATS) visit the Central Michigan Chippewas (7-2 6-2 ATS) the conference will have the spotlight all on its own, serving as the only college football game in play

Both teams are coming off disappointing losses and will look to put in impressive performances on national TV.

Missed Opportunity

On Halloween CMU visited Boston College with hopes of cracking into the Top 25 with an upset. The MAC West leaders were riding a seven-game winning streak after losing their opener to Arizona.

But the Eagles were too talented and easily won, 31-10. BC exposed weaknesses in CMU's one dimensional attack and was able to hold NFL draft prospect QB Dan LeFevour to 152 yards and zero touchdowns.

With 10 days of rest to get over the disappointment, CMU will now put all its focus on remaining unbeaten in MAC play. Last year the team missed out on a chance to get its third straight MAC Title, by losing the final two regular season games to Ball State and Eastern Michigan.

Toledo has had to deal with its own disappointment. The season began with a competitive game on the road against Purdue, which was then followed by a 54-38 upset over Colorado.

But the Rockets have struggled in their last couple of games winning only one game in their last four. One of those losses came last week in a 31-24 heartbreaker against Miami (OH), which was the Redhawks first win of the season.

Offensive explosion

It?s no secret that Dan LeFevour has been the star of CMU's offense. LeFevour has been a starter since his freshman year and has 90 career passing TDs and 41 TDs on the ground, which leads all active players including Tim Tebow.

While teams like Arizona and Boston College have been able to stop his attack, MAC teams have had little success.

LeFevour had to leave the BC game in the fourth quarter with a migraine but head coach Butch Jones claims that he will be ready for kickoff.

?He?s practicing and he?s fine. He?s had them (migraines) in the past and has been able to deal with them.?

All signs point to a CMU offensive explosion. Toledo has one of the worst defenses in the country giving up 424.9 yards per game.

Outscoring CMU?

With Toledo's defensive performance this season, even players on their own team recognize that they are only going to beat CMU in an offensive shootout.

?It?s real hard,? senior running back DaJuane Collins said. ?We?ve got to look at it like we?ve got to outscore whoever we?re playing. We?ve got to just outscore Central?s offense no matter how the defense does.?

That could be tough will two banged up signal callers. First string QB Aaron Opelt and backup Austin Dantin remain questionable, even though coach Tim Beckman claims that Opelt will be ready.

Toledo ranks 18th in offense with 440.6 yards per game, but will have to deal with a solid CMU defense that has only given up 16.9 points per game, a rarity in the MAC.

The line

Line opened at 16 and now sits at 17 at most sportsbooks. Central Michigan has only played three home games but the team is beating opponents by an average of 41 points at Kelly Shorts Stadium.

CMU is 6-2 ATS with its only ATS losses coming against Buffalo and Boston College

This is the second highest spread that Toledo has had to deal with. The Rockets lost 38-0 to Ohio State as 22-point dogs earlier this year.
 

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Preview:
Toledo at Central Michigan
When: 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Where: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Central Michigan Chippewas are ranked 53 on offense, averaging 390.9 yards per game.

The Chippewas are averaging 170.1 yards rushing and 220.8 yards passing so far this season.

The Toledo Rockets are ranked 18 on offense, averaging 440.6 yards per game.

The Rockets are averaging 144.2 yards rushing and 296.3 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The Central Michigan Chippewas are 3-0 at home this season, 5-0 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents.

At home the Chippewas are averaging 50.7 scoring, and holding teams to 9.7 points scored on defense.

The Toledo Rockets are 2-2 while on the road this season, 2-3 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Rockets are averaging 33.2 scoring, and holding teams to 36.0 points scored on defense.
 

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Trends - Toledo at Central Michigan

Trends - Toledo at Central Michigan

Trends - Toledo at Central Michigan

ATS Trends

Toledo

Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rockets are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Rockets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog.
Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.


Central Michigan

Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chippewas are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
Chippewas are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Chippewas are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.
Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Chippewas are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Chippewas are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss.
Chippewas are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Chippewas are 16-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chippewas are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
Chippewas are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite.
Chippewas are 27-11-3 ATS in their last 41 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Chippewas are 36-15-3 ATS in their last 54 games overall.
Chippewas are 20-9-2 ATS in their last 31 games on turf.
Chippewas are 7-15-3 ATS in their last 25 games in November.
Chippewas are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.


OU Trends

Toledo

Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 8-1 in Rockets last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 13-3-1 in Rockets last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games on turf.
Under is 8-2 in Rockets last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 10-3 in Rockets last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a bye week.
Over is 3-1-1 in Rockets last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 9-4 in Rockets last 13 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 11-5-1 in Rockets last 17 games as an underdog.


Central Michigan


Over is 6-0 in Chippewas last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 4-0 in Chippewas last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 6-1 in Chippewas last 7 games in November.
Over is 5-1 in Chippewas last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Chippewas last 5 games overall.
Over is 8-2 in Chippewas last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 11-3 in Chippewas last 14 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 5-2 in Chippewas last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Over is 5-2 in Chippewas last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Chippewas last 10 games as a favorite.


Head to Head

Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 

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NCAA Football Game Picks
Toledo at Central Michigan
The Rockets look to bounce back from their 31-24 defeat to Miami (OH) and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Toledo is the pick (+17) according to Dunkel, which has Central Michigan favored by only 14. Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+17). Here are all of this week's picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 103-104: Toledo at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 75.619; Central Michigan 89.802
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 14; 64
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 17; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+17); Over
 
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