WEEK 11 INFO

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I am going to the NHRA finals this weekend, so I will get as much stuff up as I can from now thru friday night.


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As the college football season comes to a close, this weekly piece continues to fill up my Inbox with rants about me disrespecting their school. The one constant about this sport are the arguments created off the playing field and in the polls, which is great.

What needs to be understood about these weekly rankings is that they?re created not by me but the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that provides odds to the majority of casinos in Nevada.

Chief Operating Officer Kenny White and his crew use the ratings (see below) as a base for creating the opening line. After they send out their numbers to their clients, the odds are adjusted based on the market, which is you.

Looking at the ratings deeper, we all know Bob Stoops and his 5-4 Oklahoma (8) squad aren?t going to a BCS bowl this year, which is probably a good thing for Stoops, but if they were to face some of these teams that did earn a trip to a top-tier bowl, the Sooners would be favored.

Whether you agree or disagree with White is up to you. Rather than debate, try to use these ratings as a handicapping tool that will help you stay away from the public perception traps created by the other polls (AP, USA Today, BCS).

A perfect example of this is Utah (33), who is ranked 16th in this week?s BCS Rankings and 17th in both the AP and USA Today polls. Kyle Wittingham?s team sports an 8-1 record and the lone loss came by seven (31-24) at Oregon, who has a great shot of wining the Pac 10 despite last week?s setback at Stanford.

Are the Utes still living off last year?s impressive victory against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl? It?s possible but the oddsmakers aren?t buying into Utah and it?s apparent in Week 11.

Utah will face its toughest test of the season this Saturday when it meets TCU (4), who is ranked fourth in every poll, including this week?s LVSC Rankings. White and his team have been high on the Horned Frogs all year and that?s probably part of the reason why they?re listed as 20-point home favorites over the Utes. A couple other reasons ? they?re solid on both sides of the football and they?ve been a covering machine (6-2 ATS) all season.

Along with TCU, Brigham Young (27) is the other Mountain West Conference team listed in this week?s LVSC rankings, but that would definitely change with a Utah upset in Forth Worth on Saturday.

The MWC is on par with the Big East (2) and Big 10 (3) in this oddsmakers' rankings. The SEC continues to garner the most respect behind the counter with seven schools while the Big 12, ACC and Pac 10 all have five a piece.

Boise State (9) is the lone WAC school getting attention by the oddsmakers and it's just four wins away from posting a perfect 13-0 season.

So who was the last team to beat Boise? TCU edged the Broncos 17-16 in last year?s Poinsettia Bowl. A rematch would be fun and the debate even better.

Below is a complete breakdown of this week?s LVSC Rankings.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants - Week 11 Rankings
Rank Team Rating Last Week BCS Rank
1 Florida 121.7 1 1
2 Texas 120.0 2 3
3 Alabama 116.9 3 2
4 Texas Christian 114.0 7 4
5 Oregon 113.4 6 13
6 Southern Cal 113.1 5 9
7 Ohio State 112.8 9 11
8 Oklahoma 112.7 4 NR
9 Boise State 112.0 10 6
10 Cincinnati 110.5 13 5
11 LSU 110.4 12 8
11 Penn State 110.4 8 18
13 Georgia Tech 109.2 14 7
14 Texas Tech 108.7 15 NR
14 Clemson 108.7 17 NR
16 Oklahoma State 108.6 20 19
17 Mississippi 108.4 16 NR
17 Nebraska 108.4 18 NR
19 Miami 108.1 22 14
19 Iowa 108.1 11 10
21 Pittsburgh 108.0 23 12
22 Tennessee 107.9 20 NR
23 Virginia Tech 107.6 24 21
24 Arizona 107.3 26 17
25 Stanford 107.0 29 NR
26 Arkansas 106.9 27 NR
27 Brigham Young 106.7 30 22
27 Georgia 106.7 25 NR
23 Oregon State 106.2 NR 23
30 Boston College 105.6 30 NR
Dropped out of Top 30: California (18), Notre Dame (28))
Next 10: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Utah (16 BCS), Connecticut, California, Wisconsin (20 BCS), Missouri, Florida State, West Virginia (25 BCS) and South Carolina

 

[Lumi]

Beware of Let Downs - Week 11

Beware of Let Downs - Week 11

Beware of Let Downs - Week 11



We saw a few upsets of home teams this past weekend in college football. Iowa lost its quarterback and its undefeated season against the Wildcats in Iowa City. Notre Dame lost its second straight home decision to the Midshipmen for the first time since JFK was alive. And Penn State got embarrassed at home for the second time this year.

Two of those teams are giving us a prime chance to cash in for what is certainly a let down spot this Saturday.

Trapping a Wildcat?

If I were to have told you before the season started that Kansas State would control its own destiny to win the Big XII North, you?d look at me like I had lobsters crawling out of my ears. But the Wildcats are in that position right now after dropping Kansas 17-10 in the latest edition of the Sunflower Showdown.

Despite being in the driver?s seat, the Wildcats are still in a pick ?em or one-point home favorites against Missouri.

This matchup is a perfect trap spot for us to play upon since K-State is not only coming off of a big win against the Jayhawks, but they also have to face the Cornhuskers in Lincoln next week.

Kansas State has done well in home games following up a battle with the Jayhawks, as evidenced by a 5-2 straight up and against the spread record. Yet Mizzou has won the last three meetings, covering in two of those meetings.

Not so Happy Valley?

The big showdown in the Big Ten turned out to be nothing more than an afterthought as Penn State got manhandled 24-7 by the Buckeyes as a 5 ?-point home favorite. The Nittany Lions had no rhythm against Ohio State?s defense, racking up just 201 yards offensively. And they only converted just four of their 16 third-downs.

Betting shops all over the world are expecting the Nittany Lions to have their way with Indian this week as they?re 26 ?-point home faves.

What could prove problematic is this isn?t the usual haphazard Hoosiers of years gone by. No, this Indiana team should actually be bowl eligible by now if they hadn?t coughed up leads against the Wolverines and Wildcats. And we shouldn?t forget that they played well enough to beat the Badgers last week as well. Bettors have already known that the Hoosiers are a good bet as they?ve gone 6-3 ATS this year.

Indiana has covered its last two games against the Nittany Lions. And if that doesn?t make you think that Penn State is in a spot not to cover the spread, then consider that they are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in home games following a tilt with the Buckeyes.

No luck for the Irish?

There is reason to think that Charlie Weis? time with Notre Dame is numbered after falling to the Middies for the second time in three years. The Fighting Irish had every chance to beat Navy. Yet you have to think a team deserves to lose when they miss two field goals, fumble the ball away twice, get picked off once and allowing a safety late in the game.

The Irish will try to get back on the right side of the ledger as seven-point road underdogs to Pittsburgh.

The Panthers have been one of the better teams in the country this season, ranking eighth in the Associated Press poll. And they are in the thick of the Big East title race against unbeaten Bearcats. Pitt ranks first in its conference and 26th nationally with 187.0 rushing yards per game. That?s going to come into play considering that Notre Dame allowed 348 yards on the ground last weekend.

Pittsburgh has gone 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three head-to-head skirmishes with the Fighting Irish, which helps lend to them being a solid wager. Something else to consider is that the Golden Domers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on the road after a home defeat since 2007.

 

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Week 10 Rewind

Week 10 Rewind

Week 10 Rewind

Iowa?s unbeaten season had seemingly been living on borrowed time since Week 1 when it had to block a pair of field goals in the final seconds to beat Northern Iowa. The Hawkeyes had survived a slew of near-misses in recent weeks, but they couldn?t do so Saturday when Northwestern went into Iowa City and captured a 17-10 win as a 15-point underdog.

The game turned in the second quarter when Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi was sacked and fumbled in his own end zone. Northwestern?s Marshall Thomas recovered the fumble for a touchdown. Making matters worse for Kirk Ferentz?s team, Stanzi suffered a severe ankle sprain and would not return.

Freshman James Vandenberg was ineffective in relief, connecting on just 9-of-27 passes for 82 yards and an interception. The Hawkeyes didn?t score again after Stanzi was injured.

Iowa can still win the Big Ten if it wins out, but its national-title hopes are completely dashed. The Hawkeyes play at Ohio St. next week.

Alabama stayed undefeated by winning a 24-15 decision over LSU that clinched the SEC West for Nick Saban?s team. The Crimson Tide trailed for most of the game, yet found a way to cash tickets for its backers as a seven-point favorite.

Down 15-13 with 10:24 left in the fourth quarter, ?Bama QB Greg McElroy hit Julio Jones with a screen pass and the sophomore wideout did the rest. Jones raced 73 yards down the sidelines to paydirt to put the Tide back in the lead. After McElroy found Trent Richardson for a three-yard pass on the two-point conversion, Alabama led 21-15.

When the Tide got the ball back, it moved into LSU territory at around the five-minute mark. That?s when LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson, who held Jones in check all day but was out of the game suffering from cramps when McElroy and Jones hooked up for their TD, appeared to make a game-turning interception.

However, the would-be pick was ruled incomplete on the field and although instant replays seemed to indicate that Peterson got at least one of his feet down, the ruling on the field was inexplicably upheld. Several plays later, Leigh Tiffin?s 40-yard field goal made him the school?s all-time leading scorer and put the game on ice. Most importantly, Tiffin?s boot hooked up ?Bama backers with a spread cover.

While Alabama was rallying to beat LSU, Ga. Tech was in a battle with Wake Forest on The Flats in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets, who still maintain hopes of getting to Pasadena, survived the Demon Deacons by winning 30-27 in overtime.

Although Jim Grobe?s team came up short in gut-wrenching fashion for a second straight week, it still hooked up its backers with a winner as a double-digit underdog. Riley Skinner shook off last week?s concussion in a heartbreaking loss to Miami and threw for 263 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being picked off.

Jonathan Dwyer ran for 189 yards and one TD on 23 carries for Paul Johnson?s team. Josh Nesbitt had a pair of touchdown runs, including a three-yard scamper into the end zone during the extra session. Wake Forest had the first possession of OT, but it had to settle for a 34-yard field goal from Jimmy Newman.

Moments later with the Jackets facing a fourth-and-one play at Wake?s six, Johnson opted to roll the dice and go for it. The move, like nearly every other the second-year head coach has made since taking the Ga. Tech job, paid dividends. Nesbitt ran for the first down on a two-yard plunge and then had the walk-off TD on the next play.

The Jackets saw their 6-0 ATS surge end, but they can clinch a berth in the ACC Championship Game by winning at Duke next weekend. They conclude their regular season by hosting arch-rival Georgia at Bobby Dodd Stadium on Nov. 28.

Oregon saw its national-title hopes go up in flames in Palo Alto. That?s where Stanford took a double-digit lead on the Ducks early and cruised to a 51-42 victory as a seven-point home underdog. Jim Harbaugh?s team hooked up money-line backers with a generous plus-220 payout (risk $100 to win $220).

Arkansas scored 23 unanswered points in the second half to knock off South Carolina by a 33-16 count. The Razorbacks covered the number as seven-point home favorites. Ryan Mallett was sensational, completing 23-of-27 passes for 329 yards without an interception. He also had a one-yard touchdown run.

Arkansas tight end D.J. Williams, who many pundits had predicted to be a first-team All-American, erupted for his best performance of the season. Williams had seven receptions for 137 yards.

In the losing effort, Stephen Garcia threw for 327 yards, including an 80-yard scoring strike to freshman WR Alshon Jeffery. The Gamecocks were playing without two of their best defensive players in DE Cliff Matthews and safety Chris Culliver.

Pittsburgh won its fifth consecutive game to improve to 8-1. Freshman RB Dion Lewis rushed 18 times for 110 yards and one touchdown. The Panthers have cashed tickets at a 4-1 clip during their five-game winning streak. They will host Notre Dame next week.

Speaking of the Irish, they went down 23-21 against Navy as 12 ?-point home favorites. I have two thoughts stemming from that outcome. First, I can?t believe I didn?t back the Midshipmen catching double digits. Secondly, Charlie Weis is done at Notre Dame and the school would be wise to get in the ear of Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly?s agent very soon.

Navy closed at plus-350 on the money line, paying its backers $350 for each $100 wagered.


--North Carolina outscored Duke 10-0 in the final stanza to drop the Blue Devils by a 19-6 count. The Tar Heels covered the spread as 10-point favorites.

--Baylor pulled one of the day?s biggest upsets by winning 40-32 at Missouri as a 14-point road underdog. The Bears won outright while listed at plus-450 on the money line.

--All bettors know that injuries happen in the game of football. Nevertheless, you have to feel for LSU fans because if QB Jordan Jefferson, RB Charles Scott and Peterson don?t leave the game with injuries while the Tigers were leading Alabama, you have to like LSU?s chances of winning that game.

--ESPN college football analyst Robert Smith is absolutely atrocious at his job. I thought he retired early from the Vikings to go to medical school. What happened to that plan?

--Clemson fans are a complete joke. What a disgrace for them to rush the field after beating a five-loss FSU team. Seriously? On the other hand, C.J. Spiller is a total stud whose going to score a lot of touchdowns and make a bunch of cash at the next level

--Clemson covered the spread thanks to an interception of Christian Ponder with the team leading the Seminoles by nine points. The return of the pick set up the Tigers for a spread-covering TD run late in the fourth quarter. Ponder prevented his interception from being a pick-six with a jarring tackle that left him injured. He will miss this week's game against Wake Forest.

--LSU's Scott is out for the rest of the regular season (collarbone) but might be able to return for a bowl game.

 

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Lines that make you go hmmm...

Lines that make you go hmmm...

Lines that make you go hmmm...

This is the second week we?ve taken a look at some of the more eye-catching pointspreads in college football. Last weekend we broke down Oregon-Stanford (+5) and Houston-Tulsa (-1.5). The Ducks ended up losing straight up to the Cardinal while the Cougars pulled out a narrow victory in a game that many books showed different closing numbers.

Cincinnati -9.5 on Friday is a little weird to us. It might have to do with injuries for WVU, but RB Noel Divine and QB Jarrett Brown are probable.

Chan: This number opened 10 and quickly slid to 9.5, but I don?t see it going much lower. The injuries you mentioned could be the reason for the size of this line, and the early money (which is thought to be sharp) agrees with you.

But I don?t think this number will get below 9 before the public steams in for the No. 5-ranked team in the country, which happens to be playing at home and is undefeated.

Cincy is 6-3 ATS this year, so anybody who has been in love with the club since September has been rewarded. West Virginia, on the other hand, is 2-6 against the number this year.

WVU does not travel well. Double-digit losses to South Florida and Auburn suggest this road dog sleeps.

I don?t mind your bet, but I don?t think the line moves lower.

TCU -17 vs. 8-1 Utah. TCU is the media darling sitting No. 4 in the BCS rankings but that?s a lot of points to give against a quality opponent like Utah.

Chan: This number is spot on. Sagarin predictor says TCU -15 on a neutral field so given the public?s love affair with TCU I can see this coming in to 16.5 or 16 based on Utah?s record, but no further.

The Utes are ranked No. 14 in the country but who have they beaten to get to 8-1? Utah State, San Jose State, Louisville, Colorado State, UNLV, Air Force, Wyoming and New Mexico.

Out of that whole pile, the only legitimate argument for a top-50 program is Air Force, and if Air Force doesn?t make your top 50, I won?t argue. It?s a big bag of ugly.

Utah backers probably hang their hats not on wins, but on Utah?s loss (by a touchdown at Oregon). If you want to bet Utah here, OK, but this line will never see 14. The number could actually fizz up to 18 or 18.5 if Boise State wins huge earlier in the day - bettors perceive TCU will want to out do Boise State.

Rice is a 1.5-point fave over Tulane. Rice is 0-9, not sure what the team has done to warrant being favored against anyone.

I?m with you: until Rice shows it can win, the team shouldn?t be favored at all.

I think the market is confused on this game. There?s 2 and 2.5 to be had out and about. Not much 1.5 left. But nothing?s gone as far as 3.

This is a game where the books really don?t want to be involved -- there won?t be a lot of public money to come in to offset sharp action. So I think the books are taking a bet, moving half a point, taking a bet, moving half a point, etc.

The first large bet was on Rice but I think a lot of places are moving on air, not even wanting to lay that initial bet. If you?re right, and Tulane is actually the favorite here, I think Tulane bettors are holding back, looking to hammer at +3.

If I was playing Tulane I?d see no rush to get my ticket in early in case somebody moves to 3 later. If I?m backing Tulane, I wait for 1.5 to re-emerge before I consider getting in before the day of the game, because I?m just as likely to see a 3 in a game nobody cares about.

If I?m trying to make an argument to have Rice favored I guess I mumble about home field and how its schedule so far is tougher than Tulane?s, but it?s a flimsy argument. Tulane should be small chalk here.

 

[Lumi]

NCAA Football Game Picks
Toledo at Central Michigan
The Rockets look to bounce back from their 31-24 defeat to Miami (OH) and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Toledo is the pick (+17) according to Dunkel, which has Central Michigan favored by only 14. Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+17). Here are all of this week's picks.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 103-104: Toledo at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 75.619; Central Michigan 89.802
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 14; 64
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 17; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+17); Over

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12
Time Posted: 12:30 p.m. EST (11/11)
Game 107-108: Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 77.869; Miami (OH) 75.786
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2; 52
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3 1/2); Under
Game 109-110: Ball State at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 67.994; Northern Illinois 87.841
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 20; 49
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 17; 46
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-17); Over
Game 111-112: South Florida at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 91.900; Rutgers 93.044
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 1; 43
Vegas Line: South Florida by 1; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+1); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:
Time Posted: 12:30 p.m. EST (11/11)
Texas Southern at Grambling State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 43.645; Grambling State 56.473
Dunkel Line: Grambling State by 13

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13
Time Posted: 12:30 p.m. EST (11/11)
Game 113-114: Temple at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 82.890; Akron 75.983
Dunkel Line: Temple by 7; 41
Vegas Line: Temple by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-4); Under
Game 115-116: West Virginia at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 91.196; Cincinnati 106.898
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 15 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 9; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-9); Over

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 14
Time Posted: 12:30 p.m. EST (11/11)
Game 117-118: Boston College at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 93.169; Virginia 92.999
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Boston College by 4 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+4 1/2); Over
Game 119-120: Northwestern at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 84.408; Illinois 91.671
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Illinois by 4 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-4 1/2); Over
Game 121-122: Syracuse at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 77.956; Louisville 86.864
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 9; 39
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-7); Under
Game 123-124: Iowa at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 98.592; Ohio State 109.830
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 11; 39
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 17; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+17); Over
Game 125-126: Michigan at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 90.424; Wisconsin 94.581
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 8 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+8 1/2); Under
Game 127-128: Indiana at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 82.601; Penn State 110.100
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 27 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Penn State by 25; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-25); Under
Game 129-130: Michigan State at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 89.597; Purdue 91.637
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 2; 51
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+3); Under
Game 131-132: Florida State at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 92.858; Wake Forest 90.608
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 2 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 5; 57
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+5); Under
Game 133-134: Clemson at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 96.146; NC State 90.430
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 5 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Clemson by 8; 58
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+8); Under
Game 135-136: Georgia Tech at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 103.676; Duke 89.111
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 14 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 12 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-12 1/2); Over
Game 137-138: Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 87.335; Vanderbilt 85.781
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+3); Under
Game 139-140: Texas at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 116.264; Baylor 91.455
Dunkel Line: Texas by 25; 57
Vegas Line: Texas by 23 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-23 1/2); Over
Game 141-142: Virginia Tech at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 96.174; Maryland 84.900
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 11 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 17 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+17 1/2); Over
Game 143-144: Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 77.678; Eastern Michigan 63.076
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 14 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 12; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-12); Under
Game 145-146: Tennessee at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 101.867; Mississippi 98.849
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 5; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+5); Under
Game 147-148: BYU at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 96.374; New Mexico 65.984
Dunkel Line: BYU by 30 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: BYU by 26 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-26 1/2); Over
Game 149-150: Nebraska at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 97.059; Kansas 95.123
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 4; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+4); Over
Game 151-152: UAB at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 71.704; Memphis 75.344
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 3 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: UAB by 1 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1 1/2); Under
Game 153-154: Colorado at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 83.529; Iowa State 88.208
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 5 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+5 1/2); Under
Game 155-156: UCLA at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 86.441; Washington State 73.709
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 12 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: UCLA by 17 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+17 1/2); Over
Game 157-158: Idaho at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 77.293; Boise State 109.571
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 32 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Boise State by 31; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-31); Over
Game 159-160: UTEP at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 74.725; SMU 84.609
Dunkel Line: SMU by 10; 59
Vegas Line: SMU by 8; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-8); Under
Game 161-162: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 95.211; Pittsburgh 98.635
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+7); Over
Game 163-164: Stanford at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 92.088; USC 108.616
Dunkel Line: USC by 16 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: USC by 10 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (-10 1/2); Under
Game 165-166: Arizona at California
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 94.231; California 99.272
Dunkel Line: California by 5; 59
Vegas Line: California by 1; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-1); Over
Game 167-168: Arizona State at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 91.037; Oregon 114.545
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 23 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Oregon by 17; 49
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-17); Over
Game 169-170: Missouri at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 94.050; Kansas State 91.827
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 2; 45
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 1; 50
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+1); Under
Game 171-172: Texas A&M at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 89.958; Oklahoma 107.910
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 18; 51
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 20 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+20 1/2); Under
Game 173-174: San Jose State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 69.402; Utah State 83.261
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14; 52
Vegas Line: Utah State by 12 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-12 1/2); Under
Game 175-176: Fresno State at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 90.088; Nevada 95.833
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 5 1/2; 75
Vegas Line: Nevada by 7; 70
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+7); Over
Game 177-178: Tulane at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 68.660; Rice 63.259
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Rice by 3; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+3); Under
Game 179-180: UNLV at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 71.879; Air Force 93.553
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 21 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Air Force by 17; 47
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-17); Under
Game 181-182: Washington at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 89.822; Oregon State 99.270
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 9 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 12; 57
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+12); Over
Game 183-184: Florida at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 111.013; South Carolina 91.505
Dunkel Line: Florida by 19 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Florida by 15 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-15 1/2); Over
Game 185-186: Alabama at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 108.807; Mississippi State 91.796
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 17; 49
Vegas Line: Alabama by 12 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-12 1/2); Over
Game 187-188: Southern Mississippi at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 85.599; Marshall 80.417
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-3); Under
Game 189-190: Miami (FL) at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 95.479; North Carolina 95.630
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+3 1/2); Under
Game 191-192: Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 102.139; Oklahoma State 104.361
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 2; 56
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 4; 60
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+4); Under
Game 193-194: Utah at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 94.351; TCU 107.874
Dunkel Line: TCU by 13 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: TCU by 20; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+20); Under
Game 195-196: Auburn at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 92.781; Georgia 93.620
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 1; 51
Vegas Line: Georgia by 4 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+4 1/2); Under
Game 197-198: Houston at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 93.360; Central Florida 86.788
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4 1/2); Under
Game 199-200: Louisiana Tech at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 80.627; LSU 106.000
Dunkel Line: LSU by 25 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: LSU by 24; 45
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-24); Under
Game 201-202: Wyoming at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 73.013; San Diego State 79.910
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+7 1/2); Under
Game 203-204: New Mexico State at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.711; Hawaii 78.463
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 18; 57
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 20 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+20 1/2); Over
Game 205-206: Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 81.481; Florida Atlantic 74.747
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-3 1/2); Over
Game 207-208: Western Kentucky at UL Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 56.685; UL Monroe 81.833
Dunkel Line: UL Monroe by 25; 63
Vegas Line: UL Monroe by 21 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (-21 1/2); Over
Game 209-210: Troy at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 88.234; Arkansas 100.936
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 12 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 14; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+14); Over
Game 211-212: North Texas at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 67.904; Florida International 71.022
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 3; 69
Vegas Line: Florida International by 2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-2); Over
Game 213-214: UL Lafayette at Middle Tennessee St.
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 70.713; Middle Tennessee St. 81.146
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee St. by 10 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee St. by 13; 53
Dunkel Pick: UL Lafayette (+13); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:
Time Posted: 12:30 p.m. EST (11/11)
Pennsylvania at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 68.113; Harvard 70.456
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 2 1/2
James Madison at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 73.759; Massachusetts 73.994
Dunkel Line: Even
South Dakota State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 76.547; Minnesota 91.352
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 15
Butler at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 41.519; Jacksonville 48.705
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 7
Rhode Island at Maine
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 54.060; Maine 71.631
Dunkel Line: Maine by 17 1/2
VMI at Army
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 45.677; Army 73.198
Dunkel Line: Army by 27 1/2
Monmouth at Central Connecticut State
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 48.475; Central Connecticut State 56.493
Dunkel Line: Central Connecticut State by 8
Wagner at Robert Morris
Dunkel Ratings: Wagner 51.097; Robert Morris 49.470
Dunkel Line: Wagner by 1 1/2
Duquesne at Sacred Heart
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 39.231; Sacred Heart 44.909
Dunkel Line: Sacred Heart by 5 1/2
St. Francis (PA) at Bryant
Dunkel Ratings: St. Francis (PA) 36.522; Bryant 45.242
Dunkel Line: Bryant by 8 1/2
North Dakota State at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 63.211; Indiana State 46.928
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 16 1/2
Lafayette at Holy Cross
Dunkel Ratings: Lafayette 66.190; Holy Cross 68.086
Dunkel Line: Holy Cross by 2
Columbia at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 52.649; Cornell 47.954
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 4 1/2
Dartmouth at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 47.812; Brown 67.084
Dunkel Line: Brown by 19 1/2
Presbyterian at Coastal Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 36.976; Coastal Carolina 57.225
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 20 1/2
Richmond at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 81.321; Georgetown 37.695
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 43 1/2
Bethune-Cookman at Howard
Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 46.392; Howard 36.379
Dunkel Line: Bethune-Cookman by 10
Tennessee Tech at Jacksonville State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 52.200; Jacksonville State 74.356
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 22
Hofstra at Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 65.082; Northeastern 52.328
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 13
Villanova at Towson
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 82.606; Towson 50.622
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 32
Yale at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 56.640; Princeton 44.124
Dunkel Line: Yale by 12 1/2
Bucknell at Colgate
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 41.201; Colgate 62.012
Dunkel Line: Colgate by 21
Marist at Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 38.180; Davidson 39.990
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 2
Norfolk State at Delaware State
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 55.990; Delaware State 48.652
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 7 1/2
Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 52.807; Eastern Kentucky 59.495
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 6 1/2
Lehigh at Fordham
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 55.446; Fordham 59.098
Dunkel Line: Fordham by 3 1/2
Florida A&M at Hampton
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 56.371; Hampton 48.299
Dunkel Line: Florida A&M by 8
San Diego at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 35.381; Morehead State 25.859
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2
Campbell at Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Campbell 21.018; Valparaiso 22.544
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 1 1/2
North Carolina Central at Winston-Salem
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 36.246; Winston-Salem 43.953
Dunkel Line: Winston-Salem by 7 1/2
Illinois State at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 67.098; Youngstown State 64.856
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 2
Stony Brook at Charleston Southern
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 59.715; Charleston Southern 56.440
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 3 1/2
Liberty at Gardner-Webb
Dunkel Ratings Liberty 73.092; Gardner-Webb 54.902
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 18
Morgan State at South Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 46.777; South Carolina State 71.908
Dunkel Line: South Carolina State by 25
New Hampshire at William & Mary
Dunkel Ratings: New Hampshire 73.971; William & Mary 80.759
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 7
Samford at Wofford
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 65.084; Wofford 67.452
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 2 1/2
The Citadel at Chattanooga
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 59.596; Chattanooga 63.188
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 3 1/2
Furman at Georgia Southern
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 60.866; Georgia Southern 59.864
Dunkel Line: Furman by 1
Jackson State vs. Alabama A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Jackson State 42.548; Alabama A&M 47.846
Dunkel Line: Alabama A&M by 5 1/2
Northwestern State at Nicholls State
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern State 45.384; Nicholls State 50.369
Dunkel Line: Nicholls State by 5
Murray State at SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 50.629; SE Missouri State 45.452
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 5
Sacramento State at Montana State
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 62.263; Montana State 67.959
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 5 1/2
Northern Colorado at Montana
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 58.072; Montana 78.107
Dunkel Line: Montana by 20
Northern Arizona at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 68.674; Weber State 73.854
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 5
Tennessee-Martin at Eastern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 53.029; Eastern Illinois 66.288
Dunkel Line: Eastern Illinois by 13 1/2
Missouri State at Southern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 62.822; Southern Illinois 87.493
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 24 1/2
Eastern Washington at Southern Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 72.212; Southern Utah 68.985
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 3 1/2
Prairie View A&M at Alcorn State
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 54.385; Alcorn State 39.883
Dunkel Line: Prairie View A&M by 14 1/2
Appalachian State at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 78.450; Elon 84.288
Dunkel Line: Elon by 6
Central Arkansas at Sam Houston State
Dunkel Ratings: Central Arkansas 65.694; Sam Houston State 55.741
Dunkel Line: Central Arkansas by 10
Stephen F. Austin at SE Louisiana
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 62.051; SE Louisiana 68.648
Dunkel Line: SE Louisiana by 6 1/2
Southern vs. Alabama State
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 52.041; Alabama State 37.544
Dunkel Line: Southern by 14 1/2
Delaware at Navy
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 71.389; Navy 93.442
Dunkel Line: Navy by 22
North Dakota at UC Davis
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 66.285; UC Davis 67.419
Dunkel Line: UC Davis by 1
Dayton at Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 43.847; Drake 53.793
Dunkel Line: Drake by 10
Tennessee State at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 44.632; Austin Peay 51.292
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 6 1/2
Portland State at Idaho State
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 50.299; Idaho State 47.786
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 2 1/2
McNeese State at Texas State
Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 69.848; Texas State 69.141
Dunkel Line: McNeese State by 1
Western Illinois at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 53.271; Northern Iowa 82.623
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 29 1/2
South Dakota at Cal Poly
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 62.533; Cal Poly 64.613
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 2

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15
Time Posted: 12:30 p.m. EST (11/11)
Game 241-242: East Carolina at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 84.603; Tulsa 88.291
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 3 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+5); Over

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 101-102: Ohio at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 85.578; Buffalo 78.803
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+1 1/2); Under

 

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College Football Moves of the Week:

College Football Moves of the Week:

College Football Moves of the Week:

-- Ohio State bumped from opener of -15 to -16.5 vs. a deflated Iowa squad.
-- Michigan State opened pick at Purdue and has moved to -3.
-- Baylor was getting 26.5 at home against Texas and has dropped to 23.5.
-- Mississippi opened -3.5 to Tennessee and is up to -5.
-- Cal opened +1 at home against Arizona and has been bet up to -3 in one of the larger moves.
-- Utah State was -10.5 and now -12.5 against San Jose State.
-- Oregon State opened -10.5 at home against Washington and is up to -13.
-- San Diego State was laying only -4.5 to Wyoming but has been bumped to -7.
-- Mid Tenn State opened -10.5 and is now -13 against Lafayette.

 

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Games to Watch - Week 11

Games to Watch - Week 11

Games to Watch - Week 11


Week 11



Saturday - Georgia Tech at Duke (Gameplan, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

vs.
Georgia Tech (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) is one victory away from earning a trip to the ACC Championship but it will have to beat Duke (5-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) on Saturday. Kevin Rogers, handicapper on VegasInsider.com and ACC enthusiast weighs in on the surprising Blue Devils and their matchup this week. "Despite the fact Duke is out of contention to win the ACC Coastal, the Blue Devils have made significant strides in Ted Roof's second year. Duke's offense has made headlines this season behind QB Thaddeus Lewis, but the defense has allowed 19 points or less in each of the last three contests. Total players taking notes are well aware that Duke was an 'over' machine to begin the season, but have now finished 'under' the total in each of the last three games. Georgia Tech has won seven straight (6-1 ATS) since getting blown out at Miami in mid-September. The Jackets' rushing attack was limited against the Canes, but has blown up over the last seven weeks, outgaining opponents by at least 180 yards on the ground five times," explained Rogers. Duke is 2-2 SU at home and 1-0-1 ATS, with the losses coming against Richmond (16-24) and Virginia Tech (26-34). The Blue Devils are catching double digits against G-Tech at home on Saturday but don't be scared to take the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson's squad has won and covered five in a row in this series, and all five have come by double digits.




Saturday - Florida at South Carolina (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

vs.
Will this be the week that top-ranked Florida (9-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) goes down? The Gators have never completed a perfect season in the SEC and a victory against South Carolina (6-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) would accomplish that feat. While SEC guru and VI handicapper Brian Edwards believes his Gators will win, he isn't too fancy about backing Florida as a double-digit road favorite. He explained, "South Carolina owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as a double-digit underdog since Steve Spurrier took over in 2005. This is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who got spanked 56-6 at The Swamp last season. They are healthier this week as OT Jarriel King (concussion) and safety/kick returner Chris Culliver (shoulder) will be back in the lineup after missing last week's loss at Arkansas. Also, South Carolina still holds out hope that DE Cliff Matthews (shoulder) might play. But the 'Cocks appear to be in the midst of a third consecutive late-season swoon. They have lost by 18 and 17 points at Tennessee and at Arkansas, respectively, in back-to-back games. The Gators are 2-4-1 ATS in seven SEC games as double-digit favorites this year. I think gamblers should look at the double-digit 'dog or pass on the side." The SEC has seen its fair share of 'under' tickets this year but four of the last five in this series have gone 'over' the total.




Saturday - Iowa at Ohio State (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

vs.
The Big 10 was shaken up last weekend as Iowa (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) lost its first game of the season to Northwestern and Ohio State (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) kept its conference hopes alive by beating Penn State 24-17 in Happy Valley. If the Buckeyes beat the Hawkeyes on Saturday, another Big 10 crown will be in the near future. Unfortunately for Iowa, it will have to do it without its starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi and the oddsmakers don't think the Hawks have a shot, listing them as 17-point road underdogs. Do they have any shot? VI handicapper Judd Hall doesn't believe so, especially the way OSU's defense has been playing. "Iowa has to go into a hostile environment with a redshirt freshman under center in James Vandenberg. He completed just nine of his 27 passes last week against the Wildcats after replacing Stanzi. Ohio State has a defense that is been terribly stingy against the pass all season long. And the Bucks have picked off 16 passes already this year. That's putting a lot of pressure on Brandon Wegher, who is Iowa's third starting tailback this season. Given how we've seen the Buckeyes' defense cover the spread this year against New Mexico State and Wisconsin, there is no reason to believe they won't stifle Iowa on Saturday," said Hall. The Buckeyes have walloped the Hawkeyes the past two seasons, posting 38-17 and 31-6 victories, the latter coming in Columbus.




Saturday - Stanford at USC (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

vs.
Jim Harbaugh continues to build the Stanford (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) program and last week's 51-42 victory over Oregon made the school bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. That year, the Cardinal posted a 9-4 mark under head coach Tyrone Willingham. The chances of matching Willingham are going to be tough, especially with a battle against USC (7-2 SU, 2-7 ATS) this Saturday. The Trojans haven't looked good at all in their last four games albeit three were on the road. The defense is the main issue for USC this year and it's been evident in the last three games, with the Trojans allowing an average of 480.7 YPG and now they face a Stanford team that is averaging 520.7 YPG in its last three. USC and Stanford both feature freshman quarterbacks and Matt Barkley might get all the attention in California, but most can argue that the Cardinal gunslinger Andrew Luck (2,076 yards, 11 TDs) is the better of the two. Plus, Luck has the better ground game with running back Toby Gerhart (1,217 yards, 16 TDs) moving the chains. USC has won six of the last seven meetings but the last battle played at the Coliseum watched Stanford pull off one of the biggest upsets in college football history when it beat USC 24-23. The Cardinal are catching 11 points this weekend and a pass could be in play. Stanford is 1-3 both SU and ATS on the road, while USC is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS in Los Angeles.




Saturday - Utah at TCU (Versus, 7:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

vs.
Are the Horned Frogs 20 points better than the Utes? That question will be answered Saturday when TCU (9-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) and Utah (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) battle from Fort Worth. Head coach Gary Patterson and the Frogs have dominated teams with a defense (11.2 PPG) and the unit has is getting better as the year moves along. In the last four games, TCU has only surrendered 25 total points. The Frogs are known for their D but quarterback Andy Dalton (63.8 %, 1,881 yards, 16 TDs) is one of the most efficient QBs in the nation and he's one of four players on TCU to have over 300-plus rushing yards this season. Even though Utah might be outmatched in the talent department for this battle, Kyle Wittingham's team won't be intimidated. The Utes are 5-1 all-time against TCU, including last year's 13-10 victory over the Horned Frogs behind QB Brian Johnson, who is no longer behind center for Utah. Looking at the box score closer, the Frogs outgained (416-275) the Utes but they cost themselves with two interceptions and two missed field goals. Utah has gone 3-1 SU on the road this year, but only 1-3 ATS. The lone loss came on Sept. 19 to Oregon (31-24), who has a great shot to win the Pac 10 despite last week's loss to Stanford. The total on this game is hovering between 46 and 47 points and it should be noted the 'under' has cashed in the last four.




Saturday - Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (ABC-Regional, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

vs.
The Big 12 hasn't had its fair share of shootouts this season but Saturday's battle in Stillwater between Texas Tech (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) and Oklahoma State (7-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) has been known to light up the scoreboard. The Red Raiders enter this game with two weeks to prepare and that might not be good news for the Cowboys. Last season, Texas Tech stroked Oklahoma State 56-20 in Lubbock and the combined 76 points jumped 'over' the closing the number of 72. In the 2008 season, the Cowboys scored a 49-45 win over the Red Raiders, which cashed the 'over' again. Texas Tech's attack doesn't have the same kind of ammo and the quarterback situation is up in the air for Saturday. Despite shuffling gunslingers, Mike Leach's team is still averaging 40.2 PPG and 474 YPG. Oklahoma State doesn't have any issues under center, with QB Zac Robinson (65.4%, 1,832 yards, 14 TDs) leading a balanced attack (34.1 PPG). The Cowboys have gone 4-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home this year, with the two losses coming against quality teams in Houston (35-45) and Texas (14-41). Texas Tech is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road but they fared much better in losses to the aforementioned Cougars (28-29) and Longhorns (24-34), plus they were outside of Lubbock. The total is sitting at 58 points and an 'under' play might be a look here. All three of the Red Raiders' road games have gone 'under' the number, plus the Cowboys have watched the 'under' go 4-1 at home this season.

 

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Public Enemies - Week 11

Public Enemies - Week 11

Public Enemies - Week 11

Only three weeks remain in the college football regular season and there are teams that are turning into public darlings over the last few weeks. This week, we'll take a look at four games, including a battle of suddenly hot Big 10 teams.

Northwestern at Illinois (-4 ?, 48) - 12:00 PM EST

The Wildcats knocked off the last unbeaten inside the Big 10 by shocking Iowa this past Saturday, 17-10, as two-touchdown underdogs. Northwestern has won four of its last six, but the 'Cats have scored 17 points or less in four of the last five. The Illini, meanwhile, have caught fire, as Ron Zook's club is coming off consecutive wins over Michigan and Minnesota.

Illinois is 3-0 ATS the last three games, but the Illini was listed as underdogs in each contest. As a favorite, Illinois is 2-8 ATS the last two seasons, including an 0-3 ATS mark as 'chalk' in 2009.

Northwestern blew out Illinois to wrap up last season, 27-10, as three-point home underdogs, as the Wildcats are 8-3 ATS since 2008 when receiving points.

The Wildcats are worth a look, but it may be too late to back them. "Northwestern remains a viable underdog, but coming off a big win there is little value on the Wildcats and the letdown potential is serious. Northwestern has six wins and another victory would certainly help the bowl cause, so this is a team that will still be playing hard, but Illinois should have the superior squad and now with a little late season momentum the Illini are out to prove something in their final Big Ten contest.

Missouri at Kansas State (PK, 51) - 12:30 PM EST

The Wildcats weren't expected to do much when Bill Snyder was brought back to Manhattan. Following a slow start, K-State is now in the running to play for the Big 12 championship. The Wildcats have taken four of their last six, while going 6-1 ATS the last seven games.

Mizzou started fast out of the gate, going 4-0. However, Gary Pinkel's club has dropped four of five, with the lone victory coming at Colorado on Halloween. Three of those losses came by fifteen points or more, with the worst defeat coming by the smallest margin - an eight-point home setback to Baylor last week.

The running game will be key for K-State, "The Wildcats are rushing for 190 yards per game this season, but the real strength of the team has been on the other side as few teams have run with success against K-State. Missouri does not run the ball well and should have a major deficit on the ground which will make it tough to win on the road."

Stanford at USC (-10 ?, 56 ?) - 3:30 PM EST

The Cardinal pulled off one of the great upsets ever back in 2007, winning outright as 39-point road underdogs at USC, 24-23. Stanford returns to the Coliseum on Saturday, but this Cardinal squad is much improved from that team two years ago. USC, meanwhile, still has an outside shot of winning the Pac-10, but the Trojans need to win out plus receive some major help.

USC has covered only two of nine games this season, while getting outgained in each of the last three contests. Stanford has covered four of the last five meetings with USC, including last season's 45-23 home loss as 24-point underdogs.

USC's efforts this season may be overrated at best, "The Trojans have looked average in recent weeks and the best wins on the year against Ohio State and Cal, are not as impressive as they once were."

However, Jim Harbaugh's team has struggled away from Palo Alto and Nelson says that this one is still tough to call, "Stanford has been very tough at home but the Cardinal is 1-3 S/U and ATS in road games. USC's uninspired recent efforts have been partially due to brutal scheduling as four of the last five games came on the road. Catching Stanford off a big win and with a window of opportunity still there in the conference, USC should finish strong with the final three at home and a still dominant defense."

Miami (FL) (-3, 43) at North Carolina - 3:30 PM EST

Butch Davis rebuilt the Miami program in the late 90's and turned the Canes into a powerhouse in the early part of this decade. UM has taken a couple steps back since the departure of Davis, but the Canes are back into national relevance this season thanks to a 7-2 record. However, the Canes are 0-2 against Davis since he arrived in Chapel Hill.

UNC is coming off solid consecutive wins over Virginia Tech and Duke to slowly salvage its season. In actuality, the Tar Heels should have won three straight, if UNC didn't give away a 24-6 lead against Florida State. The Heels do own one of the better defenses in college football, allowing 250 yards a game and just 15 ppg.

Miami's offense has been consistent all season long, as the 'over' has hit in each of the last three games, while UNC has drilled the 'under' in four of five conference games.

The Heels' defense is finally a good test for this Hurricanes' offense, "Coach Randy Shannon has never defeated UNC as the Heels won close games the past two years and the Hurricane offense has been much less impressive on the road. North Carolina has caught some breaks the last two weeks, but Miami has not proven to be balanced enough on offense to beat an exceptional defense."

 

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Best time of the season to buy points

Best time of the season to buy points

Best time of the season to buy points

Most professional handicappers rarely, if ever, buy points.

The 20 percent that most books charge per point is enough to scare most sharps away.

But they also know that there is a time to buy points.

That time is now.

In mid-November, when lines become increasingly tighter, the value of one point increases. You?re getting more for your 20 percent than you would in September or even late November.

?You don?t want to be buying points early in the season when the variance from the spread is at the greatest,? , winner of numerous Las Vegas handicapping contests. ?Also, the last week or two of the season, when the teams that are done are done and others are still fighting, you?ll see a lot of wide variances from the spread. But, the mid- to late-season point, right now, is the optimal time to buy points.?

Of course, we?re not talking about just any point. The only time you should buy points is on games with spreads around key numbers like 3, 7, 10 and so on. If you?re buying points up to 5 or 19, for example, please feel free to begin placing your bets with me.

Don?t just buy up to the key number, either. Buy through it,

?Buy through 7 to 7.5 and through 3 to 3.5,? he says. ?That way, you?re turning a loser into a winner.?

Obviously, it?s vice versa when you?re playing the favorite. You?d want to buy down from 3.5 to 2.5, for example.

Sunday shopping

doesn?t buy a lot of points. But when he does, it?s almost always on opening lines.

On Sunday, when the first lines are posted, he?ll hunt for games with spreads around a key number. If he sees a favorite he likes giving, for example, 7.5, he?ll shop around to see if he can find it at 7 then immediately buy it down to 6.5.

?If something?s sitting at -2.5 and I think it?s going to be a pick ?em in a minute, I?ll buy it up to -3.5,? ?If something?s sitting at six and I think it?s going to be four by kickoff, I might buy it all the way up to 7.5. Those are two moves that I will definitely make off of openers, where I will buy points.

?Other than that, people that are buying a half point here, a half point there, forget it, you?ll get killed.?

Pay attention to the totals

Experts rarely buy points, especially in college football.

They believe the increased juice is just too much to overcome in most cases.

But, on rare occasions, will find a game with a low over/under total and elect to purchase a key number point.

?If there is ever a window of opportunity for us, it comes in games in which we are projecting a low score,? , who is also a lines consultant for all of the major Las Vegas sportsbooks. ?The fewer points that are going to be scored in any given game makes the value of each point worth a bit more, and every once in a while we will be involved in such a game that makes buying a little extra of a positive expectation. But those times are rather rare.?

Buyers beware

If you?re paying the standard 20 percent per point, the point you purchased needs to result in a win at least once before you lose five games in which you bought points to make it a worthwhile investment.

That?s why, when buying points, it becomes ever more important to have multiple betting outlets and to shop for the absolute best price and line.

Some sportsbooks offer reduced juice; some have specials on buying points and some charge more when you?re buying through the number three.

In the long run, shopping hard for the best price, even if it?s only a few percentage points, will pay dividends.



Q: How often do you buy points in college football?
A: Generally, I would never buy points and pay 10 cents to get a half of a point.

Q: Why?
A: Because I value half points at about 7.5 cents.

I look at buying points in football a little differently than most. When I decide I want to bet on a side in a game, I look at all possible wagers and lines with that side and evaluate which is the best bet for the prices available. For instance, if I like Houston over GB, there will be a lot of standard options:

1. Houston -3 -110 (Book A)
2. Houston -3.5 +108 (Book B)
3. Houston -2.5 -125 (Book C)
4. Houston ML -138 (Book D)

In those four examples, you aren?t officially buying points, but in reality you are doing the same thing - increasing or decreasing the price as a line moves up or down. The key is being able to evaluate which of those four options is the best value. The simple answer is option four.

Sports bettors often only consider a line and not the price - they want to win that bet and disregard the price they have to pay for it - to their long-term detriment. Every bet has a line and a price, and each is just as important as the other.

Q: Obviously, some points are more valuable than others: Buying to or off of 3 in the NFL, for example. How do you adjust?
A: Generally, I apply a 22 cent fair price to buy or sell off of the 3 in the NFL, and every other half point is generally worth about 7.5 cents. But I vary off of these numbers depending on the total (over/under) of the game.

My thinking is that a half point is worth more to me in a game that is expected to only have 32 points than a game that is expected to have 55 points.

Q: How long have you been betting sports?
A: For 30 years, the last 15 seriously.

Q: Your top plays for this week.
A: Early, I like Clemson, Kansas State, Cal.

Middles of the Week

We?re playing a few middles each week in November, trying to capitalize on the tighter lines while protecting our bankroll.

Last week
Oregon -5 and Stanford at +7. Final score: Stanford 52, Oregon 42 L
Pittsburgh -18 and Syracuse +21.5. Final score: Pitt 37, Syracuse 10 L
Florida -32.5 and Vanderbilt +35. Final score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 3 L

This Week
Georgia Tech -10 and Duke +13 (hoping to get 14, but line seems to be dropping).
Ohio State -13.5 and Iowa +17 (might be able to get 17.5 by kick off).

How the early money?s doing

We?re tracking big early line moves this season to pinpoint what most experts say is sharp money.

Season: Sharps 14, Books 17
Last week: Sharps 2, Books 2

Open: Miami at Temple (-13). Wednesday line: Temple (-17). Final score: Temple 34, Miami 32 L.
Open: Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-18). Wednesday line: Pittsburgh (-21.5). Final score: Pittsburgh 37, Syracuse 10
Open: Colorado State (-2.5) at UNLV. Wednesday line: UNLV (-1). Final score: UNLV 35, Colorado State 16.

This week

Open: Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-17). Wednesday line: Oklahoma (-20.)
Open: Idaho at Boise State (-28). Wednesday line: Boise State (-31)
Open: Iowa at Ohio State (-17). Wednesday line: Ohio State (-17)
Open: Indiana at Penn State (-21). Wednesday line: Penn State (-25.5)

Payneful Picks

Last week: 3-0 (Unstoppable!)
Season: 16-21-3 (Very stoppable.)

BYU (-26.5) at New Mexico
Pick: BYU

Florida (-15.5) at South Carolina
Pick: Florida

Wyoming at San Diego State (-7.5)
Pick: Wyoming

 

[Lumi]

College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 11

College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 11

College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 11

No. 1 Florida at South Carolina (+16, 42.5)

A Gator win would give the program its first unbeaten season in the SEC since 1996. UF has only covered once in its past four games overall but has crushed USC the past two seasons.

South Carolina might get starting defensive end Cliff Matthews back -- he missed last week?s loss to Arkansas. Coach Steve Spurrier says he will do more playcalling for the offense.

No. 2 Texas at Baylor (+23.5, 51)

The Longhorns have an average margin of victory of 37.3 points in the past 11 meetings. Cody Johnson has been anointed the new starting RB after two TDs last week against UCF. He replaces Fozzie Whittaker, who lost a fumble last week.

The Bears have been very improved the past few weeks. They outscored Nebraska 10-0 in the second half of a 20-10 loss two weeks ago and then won at Missouri last week for their first Big 12 road win in three years.

No. 3 Alabama at Mississippi State (+12.5, 43.5)

Alabama?s rush defense is No. 2 in the nation and Mississippi State is fairly one-dimensional. Coach Nick Saban has warned his players about a letdown all week in the wake of the LSU win and reminded them that Mississippi State has won two of three in this series.

The Bulldogs have the second-best back in the SEC in Anthony Dixon, who is averaging more yards per carry than the Tide?s Mark Ingram. Mississippi State, which has covered three games in a row, averages 219.2 yards per game on the ground.

No. 14 Utah at No. 4 TCU (-19.5, 45)

The Utes are an astonishing 7-0 all-time in games in which they and the opponent are both ranked in the AP poll. The Utah offensive line is strong, leading the way for RB Eddie Wise to rush for 100 yards-plus in a school-record six consecutive games.

TCU has dropped five of six all-time to Utah, including 13-10 last year, but the Frogs haven?t lost since. They have won 12 games in a row at home. TCU has outscored its opponents 178-25 in its last four games overall.

No. 23 West Virginia at No. 5 Cincinnati (-9, 53.5; Friday)

Cincy will stay with freshman QB Zack Collaros as the starter, as he gives the Bearcats a more mobile threat than Tony Pike, who will play some. UC has yet to lose a fumble this year and has thrown just four interceptions.

WVU?s unique 3-3-5 defense has held Cincinnati?s high-powered offense to five total TDs in the past two meetings. On offense, RB Noel Devine (who will play despite ankle injury) could have a big day against a UC defense that allowed 201 yards and four TDs to UConn on the ground last week.

Idaho at No. 6 Boise State (-31, 64)

The Vandals might be without starting QB Nathan Enderle after he sat out last week vs. Fresno State. Whether Enderle or backup Brian Reader starts will be a game-time call. The Idaho defense hasn?t forced a turnover in three games ? that needs to change.

BSU has dominated its in-state foe, winning 10 in a row (all by at least 14) and scoring an average of 64.3 points in the past three. QB Kellen Moore should have a field day against an Idaho defense that allows more than 254 yards per game through the air and 20 TDs.

No. 7 Georgia Tech at Duke (+12, 60.5)

The ACC Coastal is Georgia Tech?s with a win. The Yellow Jackets have won the last five games in the series and 13 of the last 14. Red-hot QB Josh Nesbitt needs 183 rushing yards to become the first Jacket to ever pass for 1,000 yards and run for 1,000 yards in a season.

Blue Devils QB Thaddeus Lewis did struggle last week against North Carolina but has put up some big numbers this year. Georgia Tech?s defensive weakness is against the pass (10th in ACC).

No. 13 Iowa at No. 8 Ohio State (-17, 36.5)

With Ricky Stanzi done for the regular season, redshirt freshman QB James Vandenberg makes his first start against one of the nation?s best defenses. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 0-3 in Columbus, with his teams having been outscored 91-27.

The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in total defense, rushing defense and turnover margin, while the offense leads the conference in scoring. OSU has won 10 of 11 in the series, but the teams haven?t played since 2006.

Notre Dame at No. 9 Pittsburgh (-7, 58.5)

The Irish lost tight end Kyle Rudolph to a regular season-ending injury vs. Navy. He has 33 catches, second-most on the team, for 364 yards and three touchdowns. The Irish have lost their last seven to Top 10 foes, matching the longest streak in school history.

Pitt has won two of three against Notre Dame but hasn?t beaten the Irish in Pittsburgh since 1999. Panthers freshman Dion Lewis gets the publicity, but QB Bill Stull is on pace to have a better senior season than Dan Marino did at Pitt.

Stanford at No. 10 USC (-10.5, 54.5)

The only team to beat USC in the Trojans? past 48 home games? Stanford in 2007. This year?s Cardinal defense isn?t very good, but USC?s offense has produced one touchdown in the past six quarters. The past two games, Southern Cal is 6-of-27 in third-down conversions.

The Trojans have never lost in November under Pete Carroll, but they likely won?t have top WR/PR Damian Williams because of an ankle sprain. Williams has caught 45 passes for 688 yards and five touchdowns. He also has returned two punts for touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech at No. 11 LSU (-25, 46.5)

The Bulldogs played Boise State very tough last time out, but they have three starters for sure out and nine more questionable for this one. One of those for sure out is the team?s best defensive player, safety Antonio Baker.

LSU has the nation?s longest non-conference winning streak at 22, hasn?t lost at home during homecoming since 2000 and has won 24 in a row against in-state foes. But the Tigers did lose starting RB Charles Scott for the season to injury last week. QB Jordan Jefferson says he thinks he will play despite also getting hurt against Alabama.

No. 12 Houston at Central Florida (+4.5, 62.5)

Is Houston lucky or good in the wake of that miracle against Tulsa last week? QB Case Keenum could have huge numbers against a UCF secondary which was torched for 470 by Colt McCoy last week.

The Knights, who are 6-2 ATS this season (just like Houston), are expecting starting QB Brett Hodges and RB Brynn Harvey to play Saturday after both sat out injured against Texas last week.

No. 15 Miami at North Carolina (+3.5, 42)

The Hurricanes have never won in Chapel Hill and will know by kickoff whether they are still in the running for the ACC title (depends on Georgia Tech result). UM will again be without top linebacker Sean Spence.

Since blowing the FSU game, North Carolina has won two in a row with impressive defense. And the Heels are averaging nearly 194 yards rushing per game in the past three but lost starting RB Shaun Draughn on his first carry vs. Duke. Ryan Houston picked up the load, rushing for 164 yards and will start.

Arizona State at No. 16 Oregon (-17.5, 48)

ASU, which has lost three in a row (2-1 ATS) turns to true freshman Brock Osweiler as the starting QB. It?s his first start, but he has seen action in many games and played the second half against USC last week.

LeGarrette Blount is back for the Ducks, but he isn?t expected to get many carries with LaMichael James? emergence. ASU has the No. 6 run defense in the country, but the Sun Devils have lost the past four meetings in this series.

Indiana at No. 17 Penn State (-25, 51.5)

Despite being 0-3 on the road in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers were in position to win all three (Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa). However, top cornerback and kickoff returner Ray Fisher is out again this week.

The Nittany Lions have never lost to Indiana and won by 27 last year. Of PSU?s six home wins in the series, only one has been decided by fewer than 14 points. The Lions also have won nine home finales in a row.

Texas Tech at No. 18 Oklahoma State (-4, 60)

Taylor Potts is expected to start for the Red Raiders at quarterback, with former starter Steven Sheffield not quite 100 percent back from injury. TTU?s defense has 30 sacks, fourth in the county. The Red Raiders are 2-3 after a bye week under coach Mike Leach.

Oklahoma State?s offensive line is tied for the national lead with only four sacks allowed this season, and the Cowboys lead the Big 12 in rushing. The home team has won the past seven in the series.

No. 19 Arizona at California (-2, 55.5)

Arizona is tied with Oklahoma State for fewest sacks allowed with four and Cal has struggled to pressure the opposing QB this season. Star Wildcats RB Nic Grigsby is questionable after not playing last week.

Cal as a favorite is a bit of a surprise considering star RB Jahvid Best is sidelined. Backup Shane Vereen has been pretty good when starting. He?s posted 104 total yards per game in his four career starts.

Michigan at No. 20 Wisconsin (-8.5, 55)

The Wolverines have lost three in a row (0-3 ATS) and don?t have a road win yet this year. QB Tate Forcier only has two total TDs in the current losing streak and has been sacked 12 times. UM is 21-5-1 in Madison all-time.

The Badgers are 5-0 this season in games decided by eight points or less. Wisconsin star RB John Clay expects to play after leaving last week?s game against Indiana. The Badgers lead the conference with 208.8 rushing yards per game.

No. 21 Virginia Tech at Maryland (+17.5, 48)

The Hokies have won four in a row in this series, including 23-13 last year. Might Tech overlook the Terps? Maryland is the first team with a losing record that the Hokies have faced this year.

The Terps are sliding and may have to trot out sophomore quarterback Jamarr Robinson for his first career start with senior Chris Turner questionable with a knee injury. Coach Ralph Friedgen said Robinson would see time regardless.

No. 22 BYU at New Mexico (+26.5, 56.5)

The Cougars are 4-0 in this series under coach Bronco Mendenhall and haven?t lost in Albuquerque since 1980. BYU leads the nation in third-down conversions (59.5 percent).

UNM hasn?t beaten a ranked team at home since 1994 but did stay within 18 against BYU last year and the past four in Albuquerque have been decided by just 17 points. The Lobos, who have lost 13 games in a row, also were only down 10 at the half against Utah last week.

No. 25 Auburn at Georgia (-4, 57.5)

Auburn should be able to protect the ball, as Georgia has only six takeaways this season, worst in the nation. The Tigers can score as fast as anyone as Auburn has 21 TD drives of two minutes or less this season, second nationally to Houston's 22.

The Dawgs have won three in a row in the series but haven?t won four straight since 1948. Georgia often shoots itself in the foot, as it is tied with Texas Tech as the most penalized team in the nation.