NFL INFO WEEK 10

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I am going to the NHRA finals this weekend, so I will get as much stuff up as I can from now thru friday night.

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Opening line report: Colts and Pats seen as equals

New Year?s Day is fast approaching on us and we?ll be thinking about all the best from the last decade. There is little debate on which rivalry has been the best in the NFL over the last 10 years and we?ll get to see those two teams duke it out one last time Sunday night.

Oddsmakers made the Indianapolis Colts 3-point favorites for their game against the New England Patriots. Indy is 8-0 but has failed to cover in its last two games at home.

?That?s the thing about it,? MGM Grand oddsmaker Jeff Stoneback says. ?The Colts were dominating at the start of the season, but now they?re struggling a bit. And it?s been just the opposite for the Patriots.?

New England started the year 3-2 straight up and 2-3 against the spread. Tom Brady didn?t look comfortable with his receivers and opponents didn?t seem to have much trouble slowing down the Pats? offense.

But over their last three games, the Patriots are 3-0 SU and have outscored their opponents 121-24.

Of course Peyton Manning and the Colts know a thing or two about finding the end zone. Stoneback says the total should be 47 or 48 for this game, but he opened at 50 because of the public?s preference to play the over.

We get our first Thursday night game of the season this week with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Chicago Bears. Each team is falling out of postseason contention and will be looking for a win to remain alive.

?I don?t know what?s happened to Chicago?s defense.?

Stoneback made the Bears 3-point dogs for their visit to San Fran and he?s got good reason to be worried about Chicago?s defense. The unit was gashed repeatedly against the Arizona Cardinals last weekend.

Week 10 also includes some fat lines with uneven matchups that could get ugly fast. The 8-0 New Orleans Saints are giving 13.5 points to the hosting St. Louis Rams while the Minnesota Vikings give 17 points to the visiting Detroit Lions.

?What we?ve done the last couple of weeks is open with the public teams a bit higher,? Stoneback says. ?We?ve gone up on that key number. We don?t mind the professionals coming in. We?ve got a lot of parlay and teaser money attached to the big favorites.?

Another game that should draw some attention is the Eagles-Chargers matchup. San Diego is hot on Denver?s tail in the AFC West after a last-second win over the Giants. The Eagles, meanwhile, have to be disappointed after letting their game against Dallas slip away.

?The Eagles are the better team here,? Stoneback says. ?The Chargers have terrible coaching and they always underachieve.?

Stoneback explained he had to make the Bolts short faves (-2.5) because of the amount of action his book gets on San Diego.

The line for the AFC North showdown between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh wasn?t released Monday night, but Stoneback figures he?ll open with the Steelers favored by six or seven points at home to the Bengals.

Here are the rest of Week 10?s lines: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+1); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-9.5); Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-6.5); Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-6.5); Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1); Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-9); Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (+3); Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+11).

The pointspread for the Broncos-Redskins game hasn?t been released yet.

 

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Colts and Saints Chase Perfection

Colts and Saints Chase Perfection

Colts and Saints Chase Perfection


As we head into Week 10 of the 2009 NFL regular season, what was a murmur a few weeks ago, is now picking up heat: is there a perfect season brewing?

Nine weeks down and two teams still have a chance at finishing the regular season 16-0 and maybe even 19-0 through the playoffs.

The Indianapolis Colts upped their record to 8-0 straight up (5-3 against the spread) thanks to a 20-17 win over the Texans. Online sportsbooks had Indy set as a 7.5-point favorite and while their backers didn?t cash in, the winning streak stayed intact.

Ditto for the New Orleans Saints, who increased their record to 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) when they came back in a 30-20 win over the Carolina Panthers (but failed to cover at -11.5).

What are the two teams? chances of matching the 2007 New England Patriots or ultimately, the 1972 Miami Dolphins?

We know the old adage, ?on any given Sunday??.but looking at Indianapolis? schedule, there are three true potential stumbling blocks in the quest for a perfect regular season.

The first one is this coming week, as the Colts will play those very Patriots at home. The NFL lines are out for Week 10 and Indy is favored by a field goal.

Long-term, Indianapolis has struggled against New England going 6-14 SU (6-12-2 ATS) in their last 20 games overall, but they have been successful against the Pats more recently, going 4-1 SU and ATS in the most recent five matchups.

If they do manage to get by New England, another real test rolls in the following week when they have to travel to Baltimore.

The former Baltimore team has played well against the current Baltimore club, going 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the Ravens.

The Denver Broncos lost out on their bid for a 16-0 regular season when they lost to Baltimore two weeks ago and if the Colts are still undefeated, the Broncos would love to hand them their first loss in mid-December.

In the last eight overall games between Denver and Indy, the Colts have the exact same record straight up as they do against Baltimore, going 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS.

It is going to be a difficult road to 16-0 for the Peyton Manning and the Colts?the Saints have one or two less trouble spots, as a majority of their remaining games are against teams that are .500 or below (i.e. Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington and Carolina), but New Orleans? final eight games won?t all be a cake-walk.

New Orleans will host the Patriots in a Monday-nighter at the end of November and they face the Falcons in December.

Atlanta is chasing the Saints for the lead in the NFC South standings and if New Orleans is still perfect, Atlanta would love to rain on their parade?the two meet at the Georgia Dome on December 13.

The Saints are only 4-4 SU in their last eight games in Atlanta but in their last eight overall against the Falcons, they are 6-2 SU.

A mere week later, the Saints will host the Dallas Cowboys at the Superdome.

The Saints and the Cowboys have met eight times in the month of December since 1990 and New Orleans is riding a 6-0 hot streak against the spread since 1994 and a five-game win streak SU since 1998.

Chances are, both teams will have blemishes in their records before the season is through, but as New England proved a few seasons ago, going 16-0 is attainable.

Who knows?we could even two undefeated teams meet in the Super Bowl.

Have a great week.

 

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NFL Top 5: The league's best third down offenses

NFL Top 5: The league's best third down offenses

NFL Top 5: The league's best third down offenses


Third-down conversion rate is one of the most important statistics in the NFL. Teams that thrive at turning third downs into first downs maintain possession of the ball and have better opportunity to score. Third-down conversions also demoralize and tire out opposing defenses.

The top five teams in the league on third down boast a combined record of 32-8 straight up and 24-16 against the spread.

Indianapolis Colts (51 percent)

Peyton Manning and the Colts have managed to move the chains on more than half of their third-down attempts, converting 52 of 102 times.

The Colts average the third most yards in the NFL on first down, often leaving themselves manageable distances on their third snap. That's key when Indy's running game is the fourth-worst in the league, averaging just 84.5 yards per game.

The Colts' ability to sustain drives helps them run time off the clock and protect leads in the fourth quarter. Four of Indy's eight wins have come by four points or less.

The Colts are 5-3 against the spread and have gone under in five of eight games. Indy is a 3-point favorite for this week's showdown with the Patriots. The total is set at 50.

Miami Dolphins (50.8 percent)

It's a good thing the Dolphins are efficient on third down, because they face a lot of them.
The Miami offense has faced third down 124 times this season, the second-most in the league. The 63 successful third-down conversions account for 40 percent of the team's total first downs this year.

Miami has to grind out first downs because of its reliance on the run and the lack of an explosive passing game. The team's ability to convert third downs nearly enabled the Dolphins to upset Indy in Week 2, when Miami went 15 for 21 in a 27-23 loss.

The Fish are 4-4 against the spread and 5-3 to the over this year.

Miami is favored by 9.5 points this week against Tampa Bay with the total at 44.

Minnesota Vikings (46.6 percent)

Under the direction of Brett Favre, the Vikings are much better this year on third down than they were in 2008.

Minnesota has converted 54 of 116 third downs, increasing its efficiency more than seven percent from last season.

Being able to extend promising drives has helped the Vikes rank second in the league in points per game despite being only 11th in total yards. Forty-six percent of Favre's pass attempts on third down have resulted in first downs.

Minny is 5-3 ATS and has gone over in five of its eight games. The club is giving 16.5 points to the visiting Lions this weekend. The total is posted at 47.5.

New Orleans Saints (46.2 percent)

The Saints high-scoring offense depends on third down success. New Orleans is 49 for 106 on third down, where Drew Brees has thrown six of his 17 TD passes this year.

No distance seems too long to convert for the Saints, who average 6.4 yards per offensive play.

New Orleans, 6-2 ATS and 5-3 over the total, is laying 13.5 points at St. Louis this Sunday, where the over/under is 50.

New England Patriots (45 percent)

The Patriots often don't need a third down to move the sticks. They?ve made 145 first downs this season with two snaps or less.

But the Brady Bunch also often extends its drives when pressed into a third down, making good on 49 of 109 tries.

If you can get the New England offense off the field on third down, you've got a chance.

The Pats were a combined 10 for 29 on third down in losses to the Jets and Broncos, and have gone 39 for 80 in their six victories.

New England, 4-4 ATS and 5-3 under the total, squares off with Indy in this week's Sunday nighter.

 

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Top 5 NFL Trends

ATL
CAR Under is 9-0 in CAR last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

BAL
CLE BAL are 8-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

CHI
SF Under is 7-0 in SF last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

JAC
NYJ NYJ are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.

NO
STL NO are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Man, do I envy everyone out there from where ever you may be sitting right now. Most of you have had the bulk of your football season played in what could be considered real football weather outside your window. Today in Las Vegas is the first real official day of fall after having a non-stop succession of sunshiny days at 75 to 85 degrees.
It may not seem like that big of a deal, but the mindset one gets from gray skies and cool air is part of what makes football so great. It what inspires kids in Ohio and Pennsylvania to have arguably the best brand of football. Wearing flip-flops in Mid-November only evokes thoughts of the Caribbean and steel drums, not football.

So now that I got my Colorado sweat-shirt on and have run some laps in the cool air, I can get in my three-point stance and feel the football spirit like every else across the country.

Perhaps the Las Vegas weather has also inspired several others in town too because the action has been pretty good all over town. Last week, there were hardly any line movements, especially in the NFL, whereas this week, it?s been the complete opposite.

Since the openers on Monday, only the Saints-Rams game has gone without movement on the side or total. Ten of the 15 NFL games this week have had movement on the side.

In College Football, only nine regular board games have been untouched throughout the week with several of the games seeing movement of a point-and-a-half or more.

One of the more high-profile meaningful games of the week is Utah (8-1) visiting TCU (9-0). Even though the game isn?t on a major network and not many will be able to watch, it is one of only three games this weekend where ranked opponents face each other, and of those contests, TCU is the only one chasing a shot at the BCS Championship.

TCU is on the verge of going where no one has. Their No. 4 ranking in the polls is already higher than anyone has climbed from a non-BCS Conference and they have looked impressive in doing so. They've won seven games by at least 16 points, including the last four by an average of 38.3.

If TCU gets by Utah, it has an easy path to run the table with only two games remaining against the awful teams of Wyoming and the winless New Mexico Lobos.

So far at the Las Vegas betting windows, just about everyone is a believer in the Horned Frogs. The opening line had TCU -17 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and has been bet up to 20. At some books following the move to its high point, they did get some buy back pushing the line back to 19.

In a game with less interest around the country, but very attractive in the betting world is the Nevada-Fresno State game which opened Nevada -6 and is up to -8 now. During its six-game winning streak, Nevada?s games have had a lot of movement on one side or the other and in each case, the move got there.

Someone is pretty dialed with their analysis of this team and is way ahead of the lines-makers with their correct opinion. You hate to jump on the move late, but it?s been pretty black and white thus far and Nevada scores so many that two points from the opener likely isn?t going to make much of a difference.

I?m really looking forward to the Nevada-Boise State game in a few weeks. It should be every bit as entertaining as the Utah-TCU game this week with almost as much at stake for the Broncos. That game is at least scheduled to be on ESPN2.

 

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The feature game of the week in the NFL, Patriots-Colts, hasn?t attracted too much action one way or another but has been the cornerstone of just about every parlay written thus far with split opinions.

After starting out his career 0-7 against the Patriots, Peyton Manning has done pretty well since then going 4-1 including an AFC Championship win that sent him to the Super Bowl. His only loss in that span was a close game won by the Super-Patriots of 2007 during an undefeated regular season.

The line has been steady at -2.5 to -3 (Even) at just about every book. Over at the South Point where they only use flat numbers, they haven?t had any takers at -2.5 flat, but that could change late Saturday night or Sunday morning when the next wave of moves are sure to occur.

The common thread between most of the moves this week is that home team is getting the early action. Only two moves of the week went with the road team. One was the Cowboys, and that was more likely only because of the key number of -2.5. Cowboys are currently -3 at Green Bay.

The other road team had a key number, but no one was biting thinking the better value was with the dog. The Eagles were getting 2 ?-points at San Diego and it?s been dropped to +1.5.

Other Pro Football Moves:

-- Jets from -6.5 to -7 at home against the Jaguars.
-- Redskins +4.5 to +3.5 at home against the struggling Broncos.
-- Steelers from -6.5 to -7 at home against the surging Bengals.
-- Titans -6 to -6.5 at home against the Bills.
-- Dolphins from -9 to -10 at home against Tampa Bay.
-- Raiders -1 to -2 at home against Kansas City.

 

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Two Big Questions

Two Big Questions

Two Big Questions

I?m sure everyone will be happy to know that the book had a fantastic day on Sunday. Underdogs went 2-10 and when dogs cover ? especially in the "Year of Enormous Spreads", as it?s come to be known around here ? the book celebrates.

The players at Bodog chose one underdog correctly, and that was the Houston Texans, who kept it close in Indianapolis. The Colts have now failed to cover their last two spreads after rattling off five straight wins against the number.

It?s not that Peyton Manning and company are failing to move the ball. They?re doing plenty of that. Manning threw for 347 yards two weeks ago against the 49ers and 318 yards against the Texans. The Colts have simply settled for too many field goals. Matt Stover?s kicked five of them from less than 40 yards in the past two games. In stark contrast, the Colts only had five field-goal attempts from less than 40 in their previous five games. Lots of extra-point attempts though.

"One of the disappointing things Sunday, and one of the things we need to improve upon, is our execution in the red zone,? said Colts President Bill Polian on Monday during his weekly radio show. ?We have to do a much better job of protecting. We have to do a much better job of run-blocking. We have to do a much better job in the red zone.?

Polian mentioned the pass protection. He was right to. Manning?s been sacked five times in the last two games. He was sacked once in the previous five. See a correlation there?

There might be a bit of betting interesting on Indy?s next game versus the New England Patriots. Those tend to get some publicity, right?

We see this one as a pick and took three points away from the Colts since it?s at Lucas Oil Stadium. We?ll also be posting a ton of props, so be sure to take a look.

Two big questions for Week 10 in the NFL:


How do you like Josh Freeman now? The 21-year-old threw three TDs as the Bucs upset the Packers on Sunday. Our players were all over Green Bay -10.5 on Sunday, and there were also more than a few victims on the moneyline (-600). This week, Tampa Bay?s a 10-point dog in Miami.

What?s to make of Tennessee? Apparently, Vince Young?s career isn?t dead. Not that he should take all the credit for the Titans? two-game winning streak. The 49ers turned the ball over four times on Sunday in San Francisco. This week, Tennessee?s a 7-point favorite at home to Buffalo. Expect the lion?s share of the action on the Titans.

 

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Trend Setters - Week 10

Trend Setters - Week 10

Trend Setters - Week 10


Week 10 of the NFL presents us with only three interconference matchups and six divisional showdowns. This week, we'll take a look at five contests that provide plenty of solid trends that can be used in your handicapping as we get closer to Sunday.

Jaguars at Jets (-7, 40) - 1:00 PM EST

Both these AFC teams are on the outside looking in the AFC Wild Card race at 4-4. Jacksonville is coming off a 24-21 victory over Kansas City, even though the Jags held a 24-6 lead in the fourth quarter. The Jets, meanwhile, are fresh off the bye after losing to the Dolphins two weeks ago.

The Jets are 5-3 ATS off a division loss since 2006, but have been favored only once, coming last month in an overtime defeat to the Bills. The extra week of prep has benefited the Jets in the past, with New York compiling a perfect 7-0 ATS following the bye the last seven seasons. The Jets have cashed recently against teams from the AFC South, going 7-1 ATS the last eight, including a pair of victories over the Texans and Titans.

The Jags were known as a solid road underdog earlier in the Jack Del Rio regime, but are only 2-2 ATS in that spot this season. Jacksonville owns a money-burning 3-9 ATS mark on the road off a home win since the end of 2005.

Lions at Vikings (-17, 47) - 1:00 PM EST

The haves against the have-nothings meet up in Minneapolis on Sunday, as the 7-1 Vikings entertain the 1-7 Lions. Minnesota rested this past week after their huge win at Lambeau Field over Green Bay two weeks ago. Detroit, meanwhile, has dropped 30 of its past 32 games, including a 32-20 defeat at Seattle last week.

The Lions were money-in-the-bank last season as double-digit 'dogs, covering seven of eight. The story has changed this season, as Detroit is 1-4 ATS when receiving at least ten points (which doesn't include a loss as a 9 ? point 'dog at Chicago).

The Vikings, like the Jets, have been solid off the bye, going 6-1 ATS following their off week the last seven seasons. Minnesota does have some negative things trending towards them this week, including an 0-3 ATS mark under Brad Childress as a double-digit home favorite. Also, the Vikes are 1-4 ATS the last five as home 'chalk,' and 4-7 ATS the previous 11 contests coming off a division win.

Bills at Titans (-6 ?, 40) - 1:00 PM EST

This isn't exactly the "Music City Miracle," as Buffalo and Tennessee have matched up just three times in the regular season since 2000. The Titans are slowly heating up, capturing back-to-back victories over the Jaguars and Niners. The Bills are languishing at 3-5 inside the AFC East, coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Texans prior to the bye week.

Many teams this week are good plays off the bye, and that includes the Bills. Buffalo has covered each of its last four after their off week, including all three in the Dick Jauron era. The Bills are a profitable 5-1 ATS the last six as a road underdog, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season.

The Titans own a solid mark in a situation that applies this week. Tennessee is 15-2 ATS at home off a SU win playing a non-division opponent coming off an ATS loss. However, the Titans are only 5-6 ATS the last three seasons off a road win.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-9, 47) - 4:15 PM EST

Arizona has been a topsy-turvy team this season, going a perfect 4-0 on the road and just 1-3 at home. Seattle owns nearly an opposite mark, compiling a 3-2 home record and a winless ledger on the road.

The Cardinals were blown out by the Panthers two weeks ago at home as substantial favorites, which isn't the best role to back Arizona. The Cards are just 3-7 ATS the last ten as a home favorite of 6 ? or more, while going 2-6 ATS at home off a road win. Arizona owns a horrible 2-13 ATS mark against division foes when coming off a SU underdog win against a team that owns a record of .500 or below.

The Seahawks are obviously a different team when they leave the Pacific Northwest, going 1-5 ATS the last six away from Qwest Field. In Jim Mora's coaching career, his teams are 2-10 ATS as an underdog off a SU victory.

Eagles at Chargers (-2 ?, 47) - 4:15 PM EST

A pair of 5-3 teams meet up in Southern California as both teams are coming off intense games against NFC East opponents. The Chargers rallied past the Giants at the Meadowlands, 21-20, to get themselves back in the AFC West race. The Eagles were knocked down by the Cowboys at home, as Philadelphia sits one game out of first place in the division.

The Chargers haven't been strong off a SU 'dog win over the years, compiling a 2-5 ATS mark. However, in Norv Turner's coaching career, his teams are 8-0 ATS as a home favorite off back-to-back wins against an opponent off a SU loss.

The Eagles are pretty solid when coming off a defeat, putting together a 5-1 ATS mark the last six on the road off a home loss. Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS since last season after a SU loss, including a 2-0 ATS record this season.

 

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LVSC Rankings - Week 10

LVSC Rankings - Week 10

LVSC Rankings - Week 10


Las Vegas Sports Consultants has released its latest power rankings, as there were several changes inside the top five this week, despite none of the those teams losing. The major moves were made in the middle of the rankings, as the Bengals and Packers were involved in the biggest shifts.

The Saints still remain in the top position this week, as New Orleans rallied past Carolina, 30-20. Sean Payton's squad didn't cover for the second straight week, but New Orleans is up to 8-0, as the Saints travel to St. Louis to battle the 1-7 Rams.

New England moved up one spot to second after picking up its sixth win on the season, beating Miami, 27-17. After splitting the first two games, the Pats have won five of their last six games, including four by double-digits. Bill Belichick's team heads to Indianapolis on Sunday night to take on the undefeated Colts.

Peyton Manning and the Colts dropped from second to fourth, despite an 8-0 record. Indianapolis held off Houston, 20-17, but the Colts have not covered either of their last two wins. Indianapolis is 4-1 SU/ATS the last five meetings against New England heading into their Sunday showdown.

The Steelers jumped the Colts to take the third position this week after beating the Broncos on Monday Night. Pittsburgh sits atop the AFC North alongside Cincinnati at 6-2, as the two teams meet up on Sunday at Heinz Field. The Steelers look for the series split after losing in Cincinnati back in Week 3.

The Vikings fell from fifth to fourth even though Minnesota did not lose last Sunday. Minnesota is coming off the bye at 7-1, owning a three-game lead in the division over both Green Bay and Chicago. The Vikes are at home this week against the lowly Lions, then host the Seahawks and Bears.

The Chargers came back to shock the Giants, 21-20, as the Bolts made a significant move up the rankings from 13th to 10th. San Diego is back in the AFC West race at 5-3, sitting one game back of Denver. The Broncos dropped from 11th to 14th after their second straight loss following a 6-0 start. Denver tries to rebound this week heading to Washington to take on the stumbling Redskins.

The biggest movers this week were Cincinnati and Green Bay. The Bengals vaulted from 16th to 12th after pulling off the season sweep of the Ravens, 17-7. Cincinnati improved to 6-2 with the win, as Marvin Lewis' team gets set for the huge road showdown with the Steelers on Sunday. The Packers, meanwhile, dropped from 12th to 16th following an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Bucs, 38-28. Green Bay is down to 4-4, as their playoff hopes are slowly fading, while the hosting the 6-2 Cowboys this Sunday.

Below is LVSC's NFL Power Rankings for Week 10.

LVSC NFL Power Rankings - Week 10
Rank Team Last Week Rating
1 New Orleans 1 142.5
2 New England 3 142.4
3 Pittsburgh 4 142.2
4 Indianapolis 2 141.9
5 Minnesota 4 141.5
6 Dallas 8 141.4
7 Philadelphia 6 140.2
8 N.Y. Giants 9 139.2
9 Baltimore 7 138.8
10 San Diego 13 138.7
11 Atlanta 10 138.5
12 Cincinnati 16 138.0
13 Arizona 14 137.9
14 Denver 11 136.7
15 Houston 15 136.4
16 Green Bay 12 136.3
17 N.Y. Jets 17 136.0
18 San Francisco 19 134.6
19 Chicago 18 134.3
20 Miami 20 134.0
20 Tennessee 22 134.0
22 Carolina 21 133.6
23 Seattle 23 132.9
24 Jacksonville 24 132.0
25 Buffalo 25 131.3
26 Washington 26 128.7
27 Kansas City 27 128.0
28 Tampa Bay 28 127.5
29 St. Louis 29 125.9
30 Detroit 30 125.7
30 Oakland 31 125.7
32 Cleveland 32 125.6

 

[canni]

thanks for your work i appreciate it

 

[Lumi]

Your'e welcome canni

 

[Lumi]

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 10 betting notes

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 10 betting notes

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 10 betting notes

Chicago at San Francisco (-3)

Why Bears cover: They've won four of the past five meetings. Alex Smith has five turnovers in two starts since taking over for Shaun Hill.

Why 49ers cover: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Bears' inability to run the ball has caused problems for the passing game. Matt Forte averaged 13 carries and 42.5 yards per game over his last four, while Jay Cutler has thrown seven interceptions over that span.

Total (43.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Atlanta at Carolina (+1)

Why Falcons cover: They're 15-7-4 ATS in their last 26 meetings. They have won three of the past four meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Michael Turner (317 yards, 3 TDs) has been a beast in the last couple weeks and faces Carolina's 23rd-ranked run defense. The Panthers lost second-leading tackler Thomas Davis for the season with a torn ACL. DeAngelo Williams is dealing with a knee injury.

Why Panthers cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South. Matt Ryan has struggled of late. He has only topped 200 yards passing once in his last four games and has thrown eight interceptions in those contests.

Total (44.5): Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-9.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: They've won the last three meetings. Dolphins are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. First-round pick Josh Freeman is coming off his first NFL victory. He looked good throwing for 205 yards and three touchdowns. Could get Antonio Bryant back to complement the passing game.

Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Whether it is Ronnie Brown, Rickey Williams or Pat White, new wrinkles keep getting added to the Wildcat offense and the Bucs 30th-ranked rush defense will have trouble defending against it.

Total (43.5): Over is 11-4 in Buccaneers' last 15 road games and 4-0 in Dolphins' last four home games.

Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5)

Why Lions cover: Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Minnesota is vulnerable through the air, especially with Antoine Winfield out. If the offensive line can protect Matthew Stafford, he could have success throwing down the field.

Why Vikings cover: They've won 14 of the past 15 meetings. Lions are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Calvin Johnson is still dealing with a knee injury that is limiting his big-play ability. Vikes lead the league in sacks and could force Stafford into throwing interceptions, which he is prone to do.

Total (47.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (-6.5)

Why Jaguars cover: They're 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their last five meetings. Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Jets? 15th-ranked rush defense could have a hard time stopping Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored twice in a 41-0 romp in their last meeting.

Why Jets cover: Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. David Garrard has not thrown a TD pass on the road this season and the Jags are 1-3 SU in those games.

Total (40): Under is 6-1 in Jaguars' last seven road games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7)

Why Bengals cover: Road team is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Cedric Benson has had his biggest games against some of the top defenses in the league. Beat the Steelers 23-20 in their Week 3 meeting as 3.5-point underdogs.

Why Steelers cover: They?ve won five of the last six meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. Since Rashard Mendenhall has taken over as the feature back, Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU.

Total (42): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans at St. Louis (+13.5)

Why Saints cover: They?ve won three of the past four meetings. They're 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. They are looking for their first 8-0 start in franchise history.

Why Rams cover: Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on turf. Steven Jackson is on fire. He has rushed for 283 yards in his past two games and has scored in each of his last three games against the Saints.

Total (50): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.

Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5)

Why Bills cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Are expected to get Trent Edwards back this week to face the league?s worst pass defense.

Why Titans cover: They're 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They?ve won five of the past six meetings. They are 2-0 SU and ATS since Vince Young has taken over as the starting quarterback. Chris Johnson is the league?s leading rusher and faces the NFL?s worst rush defense.

Total (40.5): Over is 5-2 in Bills' last seven road games and 5-2 in Titans' last seven games overall.

Denver at Washington (+4)

Why Broncos cover: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Redskins are 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 games. Washington will be without Clinton Portis who has a concussion. Elvis Dumervile (10.5 sacks) could bother a Redskins? offensive line that allows a lot of sacks.

Why Redskins cover: Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. NFL?s best pass defense will make Denver use their struggling ground game to move the ball. Broncos? once-stingy defense has allowed 58 points in their last two games, both losses. Brandon Marshall is dealing with a back injury.

Total (36): Under is 10-1 in Redskins' last 11 home games and 7-1 in Broncos' last eight games overall.

Kansas City at Oakland (-1)

Why Chiefs cover: They're 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Oakland. Road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. With Larry Johnson gone, team will be able to focus better without his distractions. Matt Cassel has looked better in recent weeks and seems to be settling in as the team?s QB. Raiders could be distracted with all of the negative press and uncertainty surrounding head coach Tom Cable.

Why Raiders cover: They?ve won three of the past four meetings. Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC. Pass rush could disrupt K.C.?s passing game that has allowed 30 sacks this season.

Total (36.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oakland and 8-1 in the last nine meetings overall.

Seattle at Arizona (-9)

Why Seahawks cover: Nate Burleson guaranteed that his team would beat Arizona this week and the Seahawks will be motivated to help him back up his words. The Cards struggle at home going 1-3 SU and ATS and have been outscored by an average of 13 points in those games.

Why Cardinals cover: Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Arizona and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Matt Hasselbeck is dealing with shoulder and rib injuries. Will get Anquan Boldin back after he voiced his displeasure about being held out last game.

Total (37): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Arizona and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings overall.

Dallas at Green Bay (+3)

Why Cowboys cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Green Bay is reeling after losing in Brett Favre?s return to Lambeau Field and then falling apart in the fourth quarter last week and handing the Buccaneers their first win of the season. Miles Austin?s insertion into the starting lineup has sparked the passing game and Tony Romo has flourished because of it.

Why Packers cover: Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Ryan Grant has averaged 5.5 yards per carry and scored two TDs in his past two meetings with Dallas. DT Jay Ratliff (knee) and LB DeMarcus Ware (foot) are banged up on the Cowboys? defense.

Total (47.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia at San Diego (-1)

Why Eagles cover: They?ve won the last two meetings. They're 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Why Chargers cover: Eagles are likely to be without Brian Westbrook, who has ankle and head injuries. Philly secondary is depleted with top return man and nickel back Ellis Hobbs out for the season and cornerback Joselio Hanson suspended for violating the league?s substance abuse policy. With four sacks in the last two weeks, Shawne Merriman is starting to look like the player that was once the NFL?s most feared pass rusher.

Total (47): Over is 7-2 in Eagles' last nine games.

New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Why Patriots cover: They're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Indianapolis. Underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Indianapolis is dealing with a banged up secondary that is missing both Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders.

Why Colts cover: They?ve won four of the past five meetings. Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Peyton Manning has thrown for 1382 yards and scored 11 total touchdowns in his last five games against New England.

Total (49.5): Under is 4-0 in Patriots' last four road games and 4-1 in Colts' last five home games.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+11)

Why Ravens cover: They?ve won five of the past seven meetings. Browns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Cleveland has been going through a shake up in the front office and coach Eric Mangini is on the hot seat. Ray Rice has been unstoppable in both the running and passing games and will get to test the league?s worst defense.

Why Browns cover: Brady Quinn (62.1 rating) takes over for Derek Anderson (36.2) at quarterback. Quinn is a better game manager than Anderson. Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Cleveland.

Total (40): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

 

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NFL power rankings: Week 10

NFL power rankings: Week 10

NFL power rankings: Week 10


The top 5 remain the same. The Bucs finally put one in the win column and move out of last place in these rankings. The team they beat is the biggest mover this week in the rankings, unfortunately for the Packers it is in the wrong direction moving down 6 spots to 17.

Week 9 Ranking Week 10 Ranking Team

New Orleans Saints: Last week (1) This week (1) Saints are just scary good on offense. After just scoring 6 points vs. the Panthers in the first half, they lit up the scoreboard for 24 points in route to a 10 point win over the Panthers. It's the second time this year that the Saints have overcome a double digit deficit. Up next for the Saints, road games vs the 1-7 Rams and 1-7 Bucs, and then a showdown at home vs. the Patriots on Monday Night.

Indianapolis Colts: (2) (2) Colts got the win on Sunday, but this team is awfully beat up on the back end of their defense. They're playing without 3 of their starting 4 defensive backs, which should be exposed by the Patriots this week.

Minnesota Vikings: (3) (3) Vikings enjoyed a bye week and they also gained ground on both the Packers and Bears in the NFC North.

New England Patriots: (4) (4) After looking almost below average on offense to start the season, the Patriots are now lighting it up. They've averaged over 40 points a game in their last 3 games and QB Tom Brady has thrown for over 300 yards in those 3 wins.

Pittsburgh Steelers: (5) (5) Steelers looked awesome on Monday Night vs. a good Bronco team. They absolutely dominated the second half of that game. The Steelers have given up only 2 offensive TDs in their last 3 games. Their defense looks like it's rounding into form and they've given up only an average of 68 rushing yards a game in their last 3 contests.

Cincinnati Bengals: (8) (6) I love the way this Bengals team is playing. They are a very confident bunch and they can beat you in so many ways. They have a monster game this week in Pittsburgh. The Bengals have already swept the Ravens, a win against the Steelers would mean a season sweep vs. the Steelers as well. It would also give the Bengals firm control of first place in the AFC North.

Dallas Cowboys: (10) (7) Amazing what has happened in the NFC East. It seems like yesterday the Cowboys were on the skids and looking like a non playoff team. But this team has won 4 straight and are in first place in the NFC East. This is a good football team and if they can continue to get better they will have their chances in the playoffs this year and potentially record their first playoff win since 1996.

Denver Broncos: (6) (8) Broncos have come down to earth after being exposed by both the Ravens and Steelers. For the Broncos, both teams were off bye weeks which gave them an extra week to prepare against a rather one dimensional offense. The Broncos have averaged only 46.5 rushing yards a game in their last 2 games.

Arizona Cardinals: (12) (9) I don't understand this Jekyll and Hyde team. 1-3 at home, 4-0 on the road? It's good they're playing well on the road because this team is going to have to win playoff games on the road if they want to advance to the Super Bowl for the second straight year. They will win the NFC West and host a playoff game vs a wild card team, but after that they'll be on the road for most likely the rest of the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles: (7) (10) Eagles need to get RB Brian Westbrook on the field, not for his running skills but he's one of the best pass blocking backs in the NFL and with the Eagles offensive line issues, they desperately need Westbrook to help protect McNabb. Eagles are 5-3 and travel all the way to the west coast to take on a surging Chargers team. The last time the Eagles played on the West coast they lost to a brutally bad Raiders team. I have a feeling they'll show up for this game.

San Diego Chargers: (17) (11) Chargers have won 3 games in a row and find themselves back in contention with the Broncos for the AFC West. The Chargers have been a notoriously slow starting team and that is exactly what happened to them again this year. The Chargers running game is simply awful. They're dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging only 69.6 yards a game. That is 10 yards less than the next worst NFL team. It's time to make a switch and start Darren Sproles. Sorry LT, but your time has past and you're at best, a utility 3rd down scat back.

Atlanta Falcons: (16) (12) After a banner rookie campaign, QB Matty Ice (Matt Ryan) has definitely cooled off. He's the 20th rated passer in the league. The Falcons are 5-3 and in great position to win a wild card spot in the playoffs.

New York Giants: (13) (13) Boy have the Giants fallen on hard times. They've lost 4 straight and find themselves 2.5 games out of first place in the NFC East. They have a bye this week before they start a brutal stretch of games, including trips to Denver and Minnesota, and home games against winning teams like the Falcons, Cowboys and Eagles.

Baltimore Ravens: (9) (14) The Ravens are now 4-4 and after being swept by the Bengals, they are pretty much 2.5 games out of first place in the AFC North and have a long road to climb to win that division. The Ravens defense just isn't the dominant unit it has been in years past and offensively, they've struggled running the ball in their last two games. The Ravens finally catch a break after facing 5 quality opponents and going 1-4 in those games vs the Bengals (twice), Patriots, Vikings and Broncos. They play the Browns next week, but then things get real tough with games at home vs the Colts and Steelers.

Houston Texans: (14) (15) The Texans are 5-4, but if the playoffs were to start today the Texans wouldn't be in the playoffs. This team needs to figure out their running back situation because Ryan Moats is not the answer. He was very ineffective in his only start of the season, averaging only 2.4 yards a carry against a depleted Colts defense.

New York Jets: (20) (16) The Jets are off a bye and are going to need a big second half of the season if they want to make the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers: (11) (17) I was very high on this Packer team coming into this season. My only concern was their offensive line and it?s beyond a concern, its leading to the demise of this Packer team that has weapons everywhere on offense but can't take advantage of those weapons because their O-line is so weak. After 8 games, this team hasn't come close to solving their offensive line issues and gave up 6 sacks to a Bucs defense that had recorded 11 sacks in their previous 7 games. Losing to the Bucs essentially ends the Packers season. They're 4-4 and after two straight losses, this team?s confidence has to be shot!

Miami Dolphins: (19) (18) Dolphins are sure a fun team to watch. I love them in the Wildcat and they're starting to actually throw the ball out of that formation. I sure hope to see more of Pat White in the coming weeks because he's such a great duel threat and can provide even more wrinkles for the Fish on offense.

Chicago Bears: (15) (19) Bears are simply awful on defense. Other than their game against the offensively challenged Browns, the Bears have given up over 32 points in each of their last 4 games. YIKES. Do you think this team is missing LB Brian Urlacher?

Jacksonville Jaguars: (23) (20) Jags are 4-4, but 3 of those wins have come against teams that are a combined 4-20. The Jags are feasting on the bottom feeders.

San Francisco 49ers: (18) (21) After starting the season 2-0 and then 3-1, the 49ers have lost 4 straight and will once again be watching the playoffs at home.

Seattle Seahawks: (22) (22) Two of the Seahawks 3 wins have come against the one win Rams and Lions. This week they travel to Arizona to take on a team that is 1-3 at home.

Carolina Panthers: (21) (23) Panthers had their chances vs the undefeated Saints in the Superdome. They held the Saints to just 6 first half points, but then got lit up 24-3 in the second half in route to a 10 point loss.

Tennessee Titans: (25) (24) Titans are 2-6 on the season, but they are 2-0 when QB Vince Young starts. While Young has been effective, it?s RB Chris Johnson spectacular play that has led to the Titans last 2 wins. Johnson has averaged 200 total yards from scrimmage in their last 2 games with 4 TDs. He's been unbelievably good.

Buffalo Bills: (24) (25) Bills are off a bye week and will look to get their offense going this week against the worst ranked defense in the NFL, the Titans.

Washington Redskins: (26) (26) Redskins are a complete mess and now will be without their starting RB Clinton Portis for at least a week due to a concussion. For a team that is struggling on offense, they are now without 2 of their better offensive weapons in Portis and TE Chris Cooley.

Oakland Raiders: (27) (27) The Raiders are actually favored this week? That's what happens when you play another hapless team going no where, the Chiefs. The Raiders are off a bye and will be taking on a Chiefs team that will be traveling on back to back weeks. Raiders could be 3-6 next week, which is amazing for a team that has by far the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (32) (28) Bucs got their first win of the season and their rookie QB Josh Freeman played very well in his first game as a starter. But as much as I want to give Bucs credit for the win, it was more a case of the Packers losing the game than the Bucs winning the game. Regardless, the Bucs get of the mat and jumped 4 spots in these ranking.

Kansas City Chiefs: (28) (29) The Chiefs scored 14 fourth quarter points vs the Jags to make the game look close on the scoreboard, but in reality they were thoroughly outplayed and could only gain 14 first downs and barely 300 total yards after having 2 weeks to prepare against a very bad Jags defense.

St. Louis Rams: (29) (30) I sure hope the Rams enjoyed their bye week, because now they get to face their biggest nightmare. The Saints are the hottest team in football and 14 point favorites over the Rams. The Rams average 9.6 points a game; the Saints average 37.9 points a game. This could be the biggest offensive mismatch of the season!

Detriot Lions: (30) (31) Lions were up 17-0 vs Seahawks and not only lost the game, but failed to cover the closing +11.5 point spread! They are truly tragic!

Cleveland Browns: (31) (32) Browns lose even on their bye week. With the Bucs winning their first game of the year, they jumped ahead of a bunch of teams including the Browns who are once again in the cellar. Browns rank 2nd to last in total offense and dead last in total defense. This organization is a mess and head coach Eric Mangini is already in lame duck status only 8 games into his tenure.

 

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NFL Week 10 Systems Report

NFL Week 10 Systems Report

NFL Week 10 Systems Report

Here is a look at a top Money Line and Totals Super Situation that should be in play for any number of games on the Week 10 NFL betting board.

NFL ATS Super Situation
Play On - Road teams - in conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.
(77-39 over the last 10 seasons.) (66.4%, +34.1 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (56-62 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average score in these games was: Team 21.1, Opponent 21.5 (Average point differential = -0.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 39 (33.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-18).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (169-136).

This week?s four NFL Super Situations that I will be detailing have all started out well this season, continuing a pattern of success that has defined their existence. This first one focuses on road teams going up against conference foes when coming off a double-digit upset loss. There are two key points to consider about this system in my opinion. First, the team is coming if an upset loss, so it can be pretty much assumed that they are not one of the league?s worst teams or they wouldn?t have been favored in the prior game. Let?s make the assumption that they are a quality team. Second, the team is on the road. In most cases, quality teams on the road get the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers. In this case, they are an average underdog of 3.7 points. Over the last 10 seasons, these road teams have gone 77-39 ATS for 66.4%, scoring nearly an identical points per game as their host opponents (21.1-21.5). For 2009, this system was 4-1 prior to last week, showing signs that it was on pace to stay successful.

NFL Money Line Super Situation
Play On - Any team vs the money line - excellent passing team (>=7.3 PYA) against a poor passing team (5.3-5.9 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.
(50-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.7%, +38.1 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -132.2
The average score in these games was: Team 27.5, Opponent 17.4 (Average point differential = +10.1)

The situation's record this season is: (7-0, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3, +9.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-4, +19.2 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (88-40, +4.9 units).

The second hot Super Situation that I will be highlighting is of the Money Line variety and is based on a concept near and dear to my heart as a football handicapper, passing the football. I am always quite boisterous of my affection for teams? abilities to both create and stop big plays in the passing game. I think it is the single most important factor in determining which teams win or lose games. This particular system stands as evidence to that theory. It basically says to take an excellent passing team vs. a poor one, when that proficient team is on a nice run over the last two games with its passing attack. Now, that doesn?t seem like a hard concept to grasp, particularly when dealing with Money Lines. In other words, any Tom, Dick, or Harry would expect that team to win. However, the rate at which these excellent passing teams win, and the amount of ROI that can be gained by playing them to do so might surprise you. With a 50-9 record over the L10 seasons on average lines of just -132, bettors are getting back 65 cents for every dollar they are investing. That is phenomenal, and the 7-0 record to start 2009 proves the system is here to stay.

NFL First Half Line Super Situation
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line - after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after a win by 10 or more points.
(42-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 12.6, Opponent 10.5 (Average first half point differential = +2)

The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (69-51).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (201-166).

Our third feature NFL Super Situation of the week continues the trend of highlighting different types of wagering options. This one deals with First Half Lines, a type of wager that many bettors simply overlook due to two key factors. First, many local bookmakers don?t offer this type of option. Believe me, as I study the systems each week, I am more convinced that First Half bets are in fact, educated wagers. There is far less desperation in the game, meaning teams are willing to let certain things slide as they regroup for the second half and the eventual goal of winning the game. In other words, many teams simply don?t care about the score at halftime. Bettors can take advantage of it with systems such as the one above, which indicates to back home teams coming off a poor defensive effort and going up against a team off a big win. To me this screams one thing?overinflated line. As it turns out, our home team is more often than not the underdog, with an average line of +1 on the first half number. Over the last five seasons, they?ve beaten that number in 42 of 58 games, leading by an average of 12.6-10.5 at the break. It seems the home field edge has a way of quickly turning things around for the team.

NFL Totals Super Situation
Play Over - Any team against the total - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins.
(117-68 since 1983.) (63.2%, +42.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 42.9
The average score in these games was: Team 23, Opponent 23.1 (Total points scored = 46.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 72 (39.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-19).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (58-38).

Our final feature NFL Super Situation of the week deals with totals. While this angle is only 2-1 for this season, its record of 117-68 since 1983 speaks for itself as to its long run of success. The system says to play OVER the total in a game featuring two hot teams. One of the teams has won at least three consecutive games, while the other has won four or more in a row. In most cases, teams on winning streaks of that nature are playing well on both sides of the ball. It?s quite clear at the least that their offenses are clicking, since on average, each of the teams has scored about 23 PPG in the 185 system qualifying spots since 1983. That production is good enough to beat the average posted totals by about 3.2 PPG. Oddsmakers aren?t putting to much stick into the offensive performances either, since the average total of 42.9 is not overinflated by any means. So look for hot teams, play the OVER and expect to win.