HORSE RACING

Lumi · Nov 22, 2009

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT HOLLYWOOD PARK

By Richard Eng

Post Time 12:30 p.m.

Race 1 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $14,000, Maiden claiming $25,000, 3-year-olds and up

Free Lunch - Joel Rosario had choices and lands here; big class drop from $50K to $25K.

Zohan - Loses rider to Free Lunch, but Garrett Gomez is a good replacement; will be finishing.

Long Shot - R. Bee Ess

Race 2 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $27,000, Claiming $40,000, 2-year-olds

Ishmael - Was placed first last time; big rider switch to Rafael Bejarano, capable of repeating.

Cardiff Giant - Logical chalk is worth trying to beat; looks like a bounce candidate off some big runs.

Long Shot - Really Uptown

Race 3 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $38,000, Maiden special weights, 2-year-olds

Make Music For Me - Thought he was worthy of starting in the BC Juvenile; has these for lunch.

Looking for Candy - Even run in debut when not cranked up; John Sadler babie typically improve with racing.

Long Shot - Broken Tango

Race 4 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $13,000, Claiming $12,500, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Recess - Was run down last time by class dropper Wood Art; she fits and the price will rise with the bugboy up.

Ellie L. - Was overmatched in last, which helps today's odds; dead late closer at the mercy of the early pace.

Long Shot - Dances With Tigers

Race 5 - 6 furlongs (turf, rail at 10 feet), Purse $38,000, Allowance, 3-year-olds and up

Mobilized - Rallied strongly in last; key was left with too much to do by Rafael Bejarano, major contender.

Cleisthenes - Beaten favorite sat closer to the pace, but couldn't close the deal; strictly the one to beat.

Long Shot - Sky Victor

Race 6 - 7 furlongs, Purse $14,000, Claiming $16,000, 3-year-olds and up

Stand Tall - Break thru win in last; a lot had to do with facing his friends in $10K class.

Screen to Screen - Was flattered when Bad Boy won next out; negative is Bob Baffert drops him some more.

Long Shot - Furioso Star

Race 7 - 1 mile (turf, rail at 10 feet), Purse $40,000, Allowance, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Haka - Softer spot exiting graded turf stakes; she should be able to finish her rally against these.

Malibu Win - If speed holds on grass, expect this to be the one; good send jock in Felipe Valdez.

Long Shot - Bombina

Race 8 - 7 furlongs, $100,000 Moccasin, Fillies, 2-year-olds

It Tiz - There is enough speed to keep the pace lively; expect Joel Rosario to sit in arrears and fire late.

Crisis of Spirit - Proved she didn't need the lead to succeed in last; she could be best as a 1-turn miler.

Long Shot - Bickersons

Race 9 - 6 furlongs (turf, rail at 10 feet), Purse $36,000, Maiden special weights, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

A Jealous Woman - Was flattered when both Speedin Excess and Strikin Excess won next out; should improve.

Susan's Wildcat - Like the turn back in distance; she will sit in arrears and make one big brush.

Long Shot - Krismas Prospect

Best Bet - Make Music For Me (race 3)

Hollywood Saturday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 17/5/$34.60; Long Shots, 8/0/$0; Best Bet, 1/1/$5.20

Hollywood Totals - 115/31/$191.00; Long Shots, 57/5/$51.00; Best Bets, 7/3/$11.80

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #8 Stevil (3/1) in race 8 at Aqueduct. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Saturday, Mike From Queens ran out at Meadowlands. Stats - 172/125/$962.80

Lumi · Nov 22, 2009

At the Gate - Sunday

At the Gate - Sunday

At the Gate - Sunday

If you were turned into TVG on Saturday, you undoubtedly heard talking head Matt Carothers talking about the Discovery Handicap (G3), the feature at Aqueduct.

He claimed my top pick Haynesfield had taken advantage of a speed bias to win the Empire Classic in his last start, and picked Birdrun.

Throughout the day, all I seemed to hear was how Haynesfield won because of a ?speed bias.?

I track the bias at Aqueduct and had the surface labeled fair that day. Out of curiosity, I went back again and looked at the charts for Oct. 24 just to be sure.

Two runners did go gate to wire that day, but outside stalkers and closers won a couple of races, and if there was a speed bias as Carothers suggested, I just did not see it.

His top pick Birdrun stumbled out of the gate, while Haynesfield was an impressive winner, returning $9.90 in a five-horse field.

It is not the first time an imaginary speed bias mysteriously appeared on TVG.

Too often, after one or two races are won in gate to wire fashion, the talking heads starts talking about a speed bias.

I even saw it occur last year after a 3/5 chalk had won the opener. Yes, a speedy heavy chalk goes gate to wire and a speed bias is declared.

I was amazed Haynesfield paid $9.90 in a five horse field, and I have to think I should send Matty a thank you note.

I think tracking a bias can be more art than science, but it is important not to take anything one of the talking heads on TVG says too seriously when it comes to how a track is playing.

While most of the talking heads at TVG might have good intentions, they are asked to follow far too many tracks, and on a few too many occasions, several of them have a habit of throwing out assumptions rather than facts.

That is why they invented the Mute button.

Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Hcp $10,000s (12:30 ET)

#1 Jacob's Run / #1a Brooks Star

#7 Independence War

#4 Call Tiger

#8 Missile Motor

Analysis: #1 Jacob's Run did not fire as the favorite when shipped to Philly last out but we'll toss that effort and look for the five year old to bounce back here. Two back he was beaten just a neck against Alw-1 optional claimers at Del Park, beaten by Seneca Summer, who came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers again on Oct. 17. Third place finisher Truthbetold also won next out, taking an Alw-1 race at Del Park on Sept. 29. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and figures to bounce back with a better effort. His entrymate #1a Brooks Star beat $25K claimers last out over the polytrack at Keeneland. He was claimed out of the race by the Autrey barn that is 18% winners first off the claim. He completes a strong looking entry for a sharp outfit.

#7 Independence War was the beaten chalk last out for a $35K tag, checking in fifth. The gelding won 4 of his last 5 starts and looks well spotted here facing $10K starter handicap foes. He makes his first start for the Levine barn that is 36% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. The gelding is reunited with Ramon who was aboard two back when beating up on $20K claimers. He was claimed in each of his last three starts and good to see Levine protect this guy but the price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering

WIN: #1 to win at 2/1 or better.

EX: 1,7 / 1,4,7,8

TRI: 1,7, / 1,4,7,8 / 1,4,5,7,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $50,000N2X (3:44 ET)

#5 Brady Baby 7/2

#8 Stevil 3/1

#2 Primary Witness 9/2

#3 Blank Check 8/1

Analysis: #5 Brady Baby is making his first start since May for the Brown barn that is on the light side with layoff types, hitting at a 7% clip with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. This colt showed some serious speed early in his career, popping a 99 Beyer wiring the field in his debut and handled Alw-1 foes at Tampa in his third career outing. He was placed on the shelf after a fourth and third in two stakes tries. He has a couple of bullet drills on the morning tab and I have a hunch this guy is going to come back running and the cut back from two turns to one along with the class drop should suit.

#8 Stevil took forever to pass his first allowance condition but has certainly turned the corner since Barbara took him from Zito. This guy is sharp right now and is coming off a solid second last out in his first go at the condition. He owns solid late pace numbers and should be sitting off what likely is going to be a sharp early pace.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 5,8 / 2,3,5,8

TRI: 5,8 / 2,3,5,8 / 2,3,4,5,8

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct

R1: #4 Call Tiger 10/1

R1: #8 Missile Motor 8/1

R2: #7 Viva La Gata 15/1

R2: #11 Big Brownie 8/1

R5: #6 Sparkling T 10/1

R6: #6 Cole T 8/1

R7: #2 See the U S A 10/1

R7: #9 Mr. Vegas 15/1

R8: #3 Blank Check 8/1

R9: #2 Flying Sappho 8/1

Good luck today!

Lumi · Nov 22, 2009

Dave Litfin : Aqueduct

Dave Litfin : Aqueduct

Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Idle Gossip (5th race)

First Race

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1. Independence War 2. Brooks Star 3. Missile Motor

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INDEPENDENCE WAR became eligible for this starter 'cap in local bow, was claimed out of that race and next two starts as well; nine-time winner flattened out chasing Super Shape's track record-equaling 6 1/2 furlongs making third start in 22 days, has had a month off for this. BROOKS STAR matched his best figures when claimed from stalking-trip score on polytrack; mate JACOB'S RUN worked well last week and also figures close if able to run back to Beyer pair-up at Delaware Park. MISSILE MOTOR and MORINE'S VICTORY are hard to gauge at this point of their careers, but have 33 wins between them and ran well in their penultimate races.

Second Race

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1. Es Mia 2. Big Brownie 3. Jabbar

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ES MIA is a four-time beaten favorite this season; has lost several close stretch battles, but my finally get the job done in late-season maiden turf route. BIG BROWNIE led pre-stretch call and faded vs. Es Mia last out; eligible to improve second time on the grass. JABBAR is in the mix based on "bid, hung" line in 7f turf sprint two back; potential pacesetter stretching out. GRACE'S VALENTINE finished willingly, was nipped for second at 6-5 in return from layoff; threat despite tough post.

Third Race

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1. Groomedforvictory 2. Law Enforcement 3. Be Bullish

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GROOMEDFORVICTORY disappointed through the middle of the season, but has put things together to win second-level allowance races back to back - the latest triumph vs. open company; sharp work for this Tuesday. LAW ENFORCEMENT never fired in sloppy Hudson vs. Driven by Success, a speedster he was able to run down with a better pace set-up in the John Morrissey; may have work cut out in match-up that lacks clear-cut early leader. That spot might go to BE BULLISH, who is erratic but certainly quick enough to get the front off his win in the Sir Keys over Haynesfield, who returned to win the Empire Classic.

Fourth Race

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1. Wild News 2. Seville 3. Victoria Lynn

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WILD NEWS pressed a sizzling pace, went clear in midstretch and just failed to last in a promising debut over a sloppy track; blew out nicely Thursday. SEVILLE is a $200k filly readied by a profitable first-out trainer. VICTORIA LYNN is the first runner out of a dam who was winless from six starts, yet sold for over three times sire's stud fee in May; bullet works on fast and muddy tracks.

Fifth Race

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1. Idle Gossip 2. Picnic Rock 3. Big City Woman

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IDLE GOSSIP wasn't able to hold four early leads over the summer on turf and dirt; that was against special-weight opposition, however, and she has the pace figures to just run these $16k maidens off their feet. PICNIC ROCK has managed in-the-money finishes her last four trips, the last pair at 2-5 and 7-5; likeliest to inherit the front if top one falters. BIG CITY WOMAN showed little in debut, but rates a long look off the class drop if in from also-eligible list.

Sixth Race

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1. Early Argument 2. Papa's Nice Cat 3. Thousand Excuses

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Calder has been a hotbed of live 2-year-olds this season, and EARLY ARGUMENT was purchased out of his debut in a "hidden" key race from which the second, fourth and fifth finishers came back to win; first-time Lasix, first-time Bruce Levine. PAPA'S NICE CAT pressed the pace to deep stretch before giving way in good-figure debut over a muddy track; trainer in midst of record-setting season at Finger Lakes. THOUSAND EXCUSES (six bullet works), ARTIFICE (half to seven winners) and PAYOUT (red-hot barn) are new shooters to consider pending toteboard support.

Seventh Race

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1. Trippo 2. Drover 3. Kuggerand

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Among the seven stepping up from maiden victories, TRIPPO earned the best figure, and did it on this course off a two-month freshening; nicely drawn. DROVER will have to navigate from post 10, but may have the speed to clear most of these after wiring an off-the-turfer; met Grade 3 Summer Stakes winner and BC Juvenile Turf runner-up Bridgetown lone grass outing as a firster. KUGGERAND and IDOL IMAGE earned virtually identical figures winning maiden routes on this course Nov. 11, improving considerably off their dirt form.

Eighth Race

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1. Brady Baby 2. Primary Witness 3. Stevil

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BRADY BABY has been away since coming up short to multiple stakes winner Shadowbdancing at Prairie Meadows back in May, but returns with a trainer change to Chad Brown, who got off to a 6-2-0 start with his first nine meet starters; may be a need-to-lead type, doesn't meet much early speed here. PRIMARY WITNESS improved big-time to win N1x condition with blinkers on at Gulfstream, then caught a sloppy track and was finished early off a six-month layoff; likely to rebound for Mark Hennig, averaging a $17 mutuel with his first five meet winners. STEVIL had three-race win streak snapped when a close second to Groomedforvictory (see 3rd race); never better.

Ninth Race

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1. Lady's Wish 2. Unveil the Mask 3. Dr Paula Moynahan

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LADY'S WISH checked early, had no chance to make up any meaningful ground as A Word to the Wise waltzed along through slow fractions Oct. 9; beaten favorite rates another try going first off the claim. UNVEIL THE MASK is the lone entrant never to have been risked previously in a claiming race; likely to show the way early stretching out from post 2. DR PAULA MOYNAHAN won muddy off-the-turf maiden race despite a 14-point regression on the Beyers; figures close off nose loss to LOVE FOR A PRICE in lone turf route.

Lumi · Nov 22, 2009

Post experts pick the winners Aqueduct

Lumi · Nov 22, 2009

Aqueduct Analysis
Post Time: 12:30 p.m. All horses appear in post position order

Lumi · Nov 22, 2009

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

Through the binocs

In yesterday's Grade 3, $100,000 Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct, based on their Beyer Speed Figures in Daily Racing Form, 3-5 favorite Gone Astray (who earned Beyers of 101, 104 and 103 for his last three starts including runaway scores in the Pennsylvania and Ohio Derbys) was many lengths better than New York-bred Haynesfield (who recorded Beyers of 88 and 90 for his victories in the Count Fleet and Whirlaway last winter and a 90 for the Empire Classic last out).
That's why bettors got a fat 7-2 on Haynesfield, who was making his third start back off a long layoff for Steve Asmussen. Under confident handling by Ramon Dominguez, Haynesfield tracked pace set by Redding Colliery and moved just ahead of Gone Astray when he launched his rally under Eddie Castro entering the far turn. Took the lead top of stretch, shook off Gone Astray and pulled clear to win by 4? lengths in 1:50.10 for mile-and-eighth.

* Florida Derby winner Quality Road, who went bonkers and had to be scratched when the Santa Anita starting crew tried to force him into the gate before the Breeders' Cup Classic, was a perfect gentleman yesterday, schooling at Aqueduct for a possible start in next Saturday's Grade 1 Cigar Mile.
After Quality Road was saddled in the paddock, John Velazquez climbed aboard and jogged him to the mile chute accompanied by two other horses from the Todd Pletcher barn. Alone, then with Velazquez on his back, Quality Road walked into the gate, was backed out and loaded again several times without incident, supervised by former NYRA starter Bobby "The Horse Whisperer" Duncan.
Quality Road will breeze tomorrow at Belmont, after which his Cigar status will be determined.
SECOND RACE: Quality Road's former trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, unleashed good-looking 2-year-old filly, Shine Upon. The daughter of Congaree, bet down to 3-2 favorite in her debut, sat off pace under John Velazquez, split horses in stretch and blew by front-running first-timer Royal Alibi, trained by Linda Rice, to win as much the best.
SEVENTH RACE: Going mile-and-sixteenth on turf, 19-1 Codeword, a former stakes runner entered for 50G tag in his first start since Aug. 2008 for John Terranova, prevailed in a five-horse blanket finish. Tough luck if you bet 3-1 Nergal, who was repeatedly checked by David Cohen trying to come through too-tight quarters along rail in the stretch, and 5-1 Picou, blocked behind wall of horses rallying late under Alan Garcia.
PICK SIX
Winning numbers: 4-6-7-9-4-2
No winners
4 consolation (5 of 6) paid $3,725
Carryover: $44,705

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