Ball State at Western Michigan

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Ball State at Western Michigan
Ball State at Western Michigan (-11, 51)

The MAC makes its final regular season spotlight appearance Tuesday night when Ball State (1-10, 1-6) visits Western Michigan (5-6, 4-3) in a Western Division duel at Waldo Stadium. The game is televised on ESPN2 with a 7:00 PM ET kickoff.

Zoo weather

There is a 10 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid to high 40?s at kickoff in Kalamazoo. Winds 5 mph out of the south/southeast.

Cardinal chirps

Have the Cardinals fans lost interest in there team? The announced crowd for last week?s home game against MAC West champion Central Michigan was 5,736, but there appeared to be just over 1,000 people in the 22,500-seat stadium. The Cardinals lost 35-3 and the game wasn't that close.

BSU was held without a touchdown for the first time this season and managed only 231 yards of total offense while converting 2-of-11 third downs. On defense, they allowed 344 yards in the air and four TD passes by Chippewas? QB Dan LeFevour, who completed 25-of-28 passes.

The bad news is the Cardinals were not competitive for the first time in a MAC game this season. Ball State looks like a team worn-down by their poor performance.

"I think we ran out of juice. We didn't move the ball, and I think the team sensed that. We mishandled plays in our Wildcat offense," said beleaguered coach Stan Parrish.

The good news is Ball State did not commit a penalty against CMU. The Cardinals were flagged nine times in each of their previous two games.

Another hope for promise has been the play of RB Cory Sykes. He rushed for a team-high 85 yards on just 10 carries against Central Michigan.

Bronco banter

QB Tim Hiller threw for four TD passes in a 35-14 win at Eastern Michigan 10 days ago to reach 98 for his career. He needs two in the Broncos' game tonight against Ball State to tie Chad Pennington of Marshall for the MAC all-time record.

The Broncos forced six turnovers to pave the way. It?s been a long time coming as Western Michigan has allowed season high yards in each of its last four games. The WMU defense ranks No. 110 in the nation, allowing 482 yards per game. That is 132 YPG worse than what Ball State yields.

"Defensively, we came up with a lot of turnovers, which we had not done all year," Broncos coach Bill Cubit said.

WMU remains inconsistent on third-down defense. The Broncos allowed 10-of-14 third-down conversions in their loss to Kent State on Oct. 31. Eastern Michigan, the worst team in the MAC, converted 6-of-13 third downs against Broncos on Nov. 14.

Western Michigan needs a win this evening win just to finish the season with a 6-6 win-loss record and gain bowl eligibility.

Take a look at me now

Surprisingly, these two teams won 21 games collectively last season. Their six wins combined in 2009 have come against one non-FBS squad (Hofstra) and five other teams that together are 10-46 overall this season.

History says

Ball State head coach Stan Parrish is 1-13-1 SU and 2-13 ATS versus sub .500 lined opponents in his career.

Western Michigan is 2-6 SU and ATS the last eight games in this series.

Teams on Tuesdays during the regular season, playing off a SU and ATS loss, are 20-10-3 ATS.

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Preview:
Ball State at Western Michigan
When: 7:00 PM ET, Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Where: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Michigan

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Western Michigan Broncos are ranked 59 on offense, averaging 380.8 yards per game. The Broncos are averaging 112.5 yards rushing and 268.4 yards passing so far this season.

The Ball State Cardinals are ranked 111 on offense, averaging 300.1 yards per game. The Cardinals are averaging 159.8 yards rushing and 140.3 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The Western Michigan Broncos are 3-1 at home this season, 4-3 against conference opponents and 1-3 against non-conference opponents.

At home the Broncos are averaging 32.2 scoring, and holding teams to 25.2 points scored on defense.

The Ball State Cardinals are 1-4 while on the road this season, 1-6 against conference opponents and 0-4 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Cardinals are averaging 23.0 scoring, and holding teams to 31.0 points scored on defense.

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Trends - Ball State at Western Michigan

Trends - Ball State at Western Michigan

Trends - Ball State at Western Michigan

ATS Trends

Ball State

Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Cardinals are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog.
Cardinals are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games.
Cardinals are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS loss.
Cardinals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in November.
Cardinals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Cardinals are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Western Michigan

Broncos are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.
Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Broncos are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
Broncos are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

OU Trends

Ball State

Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games following a bye week.
Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 conference games.
Under is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 games in November.
Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 road games.
Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 games on grass.
Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Western Michigan

Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games in November.
Over is 15-6 in Broncos last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 11-5 in Broncos last 16 games overall.
Over is 13-6 in Broncos last 19 games as a home favorite.

Head to Head

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

BALL STATE CARDINALS @ WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS
7:00 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend
Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Side Money O/U
101 Ball State (1-10) (1-4 A) L-3 22% 15% 63%
102 Western Michigan (5-6) (3-1 H) W-1 -10 -10.5 78% 85% 37%

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Ball State at Western Michigan Betting Preview

Ball State at Western Michigan Betting Preview

Ball State at Western Michigan Betting Preview

For most of the season, the Broncos defense has been a liability allowing 28 points per game and ranking 107th in total defense, surrendering 437.3 yards per game. Ten days ago the defense as a group stepped up and forced six turnovers against Eastern Michigan and won handily 35-13 as 13-point favorites. They will attempt to generate the same kind of pressure and hard hitting against Ball State on ESPN2 MAC contest.

Western Michigan (5-6, 3-8 ATS) players after a long season, seem to understand finally what is needed. ?I felt things pick up right from the beginning,? Broncos safety Jamail Berry said. ?We just came out with the emphasis (that) we need turnovers. Anything?s possible from the D-line all the way back to the secondary. That?s just what we tried to do.?

The Broncos have not been a good cover team the last few years, sporting a 10-22 ATS record. Quarterback Tim Hiller has 98 career touchdown passes and two more ties the MAC?s all-time record and a victory keeps a glimmer of hope for a bowl invite at 6-6.

Ball State (1-10, 5-6 ATS) fell off the planet this season after playing in the conference championship game a season ago. The Cardinals suffered extensive losses on offense and it showed, averaging 18.9 points per game.

They also lost their coach Brady Hoke, who maybe knew what he was doing in getting out and taking San Diego State head job. Ball State made a curious hire in naming Stan Parrish as head coach. Though his credentials as assistant are excellent, coming into this position his record was 2-31-1 and has kept along same career path. After being blasted by Central Michigan 35-3 in final home game and passing for 105 yards, Ball State is 17-6 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last their game.

Bookmaker.com has Western Michigan as 11-point favorites with total 51.5 and the Broncos are 12-5 ATS in home season finales. Ball State is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.

This MAC matchup begins at 7:00 Eastern and Ball State is 6-2 SU and ATS in last eight meetings.

Power Line ? Western Michigan by 8

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

let's see how this turns out ? ?

let's see how this turns out ? ?

If anyone can make it look better, please do so :mj07:

Team Statistics
BALL ST - Season Statistics Rushing Passing Total
Statistic PPG Half FD TOP ATT YDS RYPA COMP ATT PCT YDS PYPA ATT YDS YPP YPPT
All Games 18.9 6.8 16.1 28:70 35.8 161.5 4.5 13.9 27.0 51.5% 140.2 5.2 62.8 301.6 4.8 16.0
Opp Def Avg. 25.7 12.8 18.0 29:05 35.8 149.8 4.2 16.7 29.9 55.8% 191.6 6.4 65.7 341.5 5.2 13.3
Off Road Games 23.0 9.2 17.4 30:01 38.2 190.0 5.0 14.4 26.2 55% 148.0 5.6 64.4 338.0 5.2 14.7
All Games 29.2 17.3 20.0 31:29 39.5 156.3 4.0 18.7 27.9 67.1% 223.5 8.0 67.5 379.7 5.6 13.0
Opp Off Avg. 26.7 14.0 18.8 30:93 38.2 161.1 4.2 17.8 29.3 60.7% 202.2 6.9 67.5 363.3 5.4 13.6
Def Road Games 31.0 19.2 17.4 29:97 42.2 170.8 4.0 12.4 21.0 59% 145.4 6.9 63.2 316.2 5.0 10.2
W MICHIGAN - Season Statistics Rushing Passing Total
Statistic PPG Half FD TOP ATT YDS RYPA COMP ATT PCT YDS PYPA ATT YDS YPP YPPT
All Games 25.4 14.6 20.9 28:91 28.9 109.8 3.8 25.8 42.4 60.9% 268.4 6.3 71.3 378.2 5.3 14.9
Opp Def Avg. 27.4 14.8 20.3 30:04 36.1 155.9 4.3 19.6 31.9 61.6% 228.0 7.2 67.9 383.9 5.7 14.0
Off Home Games 32.2 18.7 25.7 33:09 34.0 131.7 3.9 32.2 49.7 64.8% 329.0 6.6 83.7 460.7 5.5 14.3
All Games 28.0 17.0 22.9 31:08 37.9 181.4 4.8 20.2 33.7 59.8% 255.9 7.6 71.6 437.3 6.1 15.6
Opp Off Avg. 24.0 13.6 19.5 29:95 34.9 144.6 4.1 19.3 32.2 60.1% 224.8 7.0 67.1 369.4 5.5 15.4
Def Home Games 25.2 11.0 22.7 26:90 30.2 150.2 5.0 22.5 40.0 56.2% 279.0 7.0 70.2 429.2 6.1 17.0

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

DUNKEL INDEX 24 NOV 09

DUNKEL INDEX 24 NOV 09

Ball State at Western Michigan
The Cardinals look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Ball State is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has Western Michigan favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+11).

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 24
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 101-102: Ball State at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 71.194; Western Michigan 75.964
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 11; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+11); Under

Lumi · Nov 24, 2009

Ball State (1-10) at Western Michigan (5-6)

Ball State (1-10) at Western Michigan (5-6)

Ball State (1-10) at Western Michigan (5-6)

DATE & TIME: Tuesday, November 24th, 7:00 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: Waldo Stadium (30,200) -- Kalamazoo, Michigan. Television: ESPN2. Home Record: Ball State 0-6, Western Michigan 3-1. Away Record: Ball State 1-4, Western Michigan 2-5. Neutral Record: Ball State 0-0, Western Michigan 0-0. Conference Record: Ball State 1-6, Western Michigan 4-3. Series Record: Western Michigan leads, 19-16.

GAME NOTES: The Western Michigan Broncos will try become bowl eligible when they host the Ball State Cardinals Tuesday night at Waldo Stadium.

It has been a nightmare of a season for the Cardinals, who close out their campaign on Tuesday. Ball State has lost 10 of its 11 matchups this season, and heads into this game with a three-game losing skid. The most recent loss was an embarrassing, 35-3 setback to Central Michigan. It has been an amazing turn of events for Ball State, which finished last year with a 12-2 mark, and a perfect 8-0 ledger in Mid-American Conference action.

The Broncos head into this contest fresh off a 35-14 victory over Eastern Michigan. It was the fifth win on the year for WMU, which is now 4-3 in conference action. With a win Tuesday the Broncos will become bowl eligible for the fourth time in the last five years.

The Cardinals have won four of the last five matchups against Western Michigan, but the Broncos still hold a 19-16 edge over Ball State in the all- time series.

The Cardinals have struggled offensively this season, as the team is producing a meager 18.9 ppg. The ground game has been the most consistent aspect of this unit, as Ball State heads into this game averaging 161.5 ypg. MiQuale Lewis is pacing the team with 825 yards and has four touchdowns, while Cory Sykes has rushed for 489 yards and three scores on 6.6 yards per attempt. Unfortunately the passing attack has been dreadful, and once Kelly Page was lost for the season, the team performed even worse with the pass. Tanner Justice has struggled mightily under center, completing less than 50.0 percent of his passes for just 523 yards and two scores against four interceptions. The offensive woes for Ball State continued in the team's recent setback to Central Michigan, as the team racked up just 231 yards and three points. Sykes paced the ground game with 85 yards, while Lewis was bottled up for 33 yards on 13 carries . Justice had another poor showing in the loss to CMU, as the quarterback threw for just 105 yards, while also being intercepted once.

On top of the poor offensive play, the Cardinals have also struggled defensively, allowing 29.2 ppg behind 379.7 total ypg. The defense is being punished for 156.3 ypg on the ground, but against the pass is where the Cardinals have endured the most problems, as the team is being torched for 223.5 ypg, and out of the 38 touchdowns allowed by this unit, 25 have come via the pass. Creating big plays has also been an issue for this defense, as the Cardinals have recorded just 14 turnovers on the year. Ball State's struggles against the pass continued in the team's recent loss to Central Michigan, as the Chippewas abused Ball State for 344 yards and four scores through the air. Davyd Jones led the way in the loss with 15 tackles and also forced a fumble, while Sean Baker and Theon Dixon grabbed 10 stops apiece.

The Broncos' success this season it largely due to the passing attack, which is averaging 268.4 ypg through the air. Overall the unit is producing 381.0 total ypg, and that has led to 25.4 ppg. Tim Hiller has played very well throughout the year, as the quarterback has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards and 22 touchdowns. With 98 career TD passes, Hiller is just three shy of breaking the MAC record held by Chad Pennington (Marshall). The ground game is only churning out 112.6 ypg on the year, but the team does possess a dangerous back in Brandon West, who has rushed for 1,062 yards and nine touchdowns on the year. Western Michigan's success with the pass continued in the team's recent win over Eastern Michigan, as Hiller threw for 275 yards and four touchdowns. Jordan White hauled in 10 passes for 140 yards, while Robert Arnheim collected three passes for 87 yards and one score. West also had a solid showing, as the running back rumbled for 140 yards and one touchdown on 5.6 yards per attempt. In the process, West broke the NCAA Division I record for career all-purpose yards previously held by DeAngelo Williams (Memphis). West now has 7,626 all-purpose yards in his distinguished career at Western Michigan.

What has hindered the Broncos ability to win games this season has been the play of the defense, which has struggled against the run, as well as the pass. Opponents are torching WMU for 255.9 ypg through air, while punishing this defense for another 180.5 ypg on the ground. All that yardage has led to 28.0 ppg against Western Michigan. Even though the Broncos went against a weak offensive team in Eastern Michigan, the defense still surrendered 364 total yards per matchup. The Broncos still won the contest, but the defense was pulverized for 178 rushing yards and one score on 4.1 yards per carry. Austin Pritchard was all over the field for Western Michigan, as the linebacker racked up 14 tackles in the win, giving him a team-best 92 stops on the year.

The Broncos will most likely surrender plenty of yards to Ball State, but do not expect the Cardinals to be able to stop Hiller and company. Western Michigan should get the win, but it may not come easy.

Predicted Outcome: Western Michigan 38, Ball State 28

LDB · Nov 24, 2009

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