Championship Week

Lumi

LOKI
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Championship Week


Championship Week is here and Las Vegas Sports Consultants released its opening numbers early Sunday afternoon. Gamblers have four title games on Saturday, in addition to the MAC Championship Game on Friday night. Also on Friday, the Civil War will be waged in Oregon to determine the Pac-10 champ and Ohio State?s opponent at the Rose Bowl.

At the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Florida and Alabama will collide for the second straight season for the right to play in the BCS Championship Game. LVSC opened the Gators as five-point favorites with a total of 43. Gamblers can expect to see the Crimson Tide at plus-170 to win outright (risk $100 to win $170).

When these teams met in the SEC Championship Game at the same venue last year, Tim Tebow threw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes to propel UF to a 31-20 victory as a 10-point favorite. The 51 combined points stayed ?under? the 54-point total. The spread cover for the Gators ended a 0-6-1 ATS slide in head-to-head meetings against ?Bama.

This is the first time Urban Meyer?s team has been a single-digit favorite all year long. Florida?s shortest ?chalk? spot was as a 10-point favorite in a 13-3 win at LSU back on Oct. 10.



Alabama hasn?t been an underdog in 2009. During Nick Saban?s three-year tenure, the Tide owns a 2-1-1 spread record when listed as an underdog.

Both teams own identical 12-0 records. UF is 6-5 against the spread, while ?Bama is 7-5 versus the number.

In terms of stats and the ?eye test,? these teams undoubtedly have the two best defenses in the nation. Alabama?s unit is led by linebacker Rolando McClain, while UF?s is spearheaded by LB Brandon Spikes.

When breaking down all the matchups (which this space will do at great length later in the week), there aren?t any positions where either squad has anything other than an ever-so-slight edge with just one exception. That would be at QB, where Tebow is one of the best in NCAA history.

Alabama RB Mark Ingram, a leading Heisman Trophy candidate, is ?questionable? with a hip pointer but the guess here is that he?ll play. Regardless, it says here that his potential absence wouldn?t be as big a loss as most suspect. That?s because freshman RB Trent Richardson is a stud and Roy Upchurch has to be the best third-string RB in SEC history. Even Terry Grant, the No. 4 RB, is a player with more than 1,000 career rushing yards to his credit.

CBS will have television coverage from the ATL at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

Texas is presumed to be the team that will face the Alabama-Florida winner in Pasadena for the national title. However, the Longhorns must first get past Nebraska in the Big 12 title game at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.

LVSC opened Mack Brown?s squad as a 15 ?-point favorite with a total of 48 ?. But as of late Sunday night, most books had adjusted Texas to a 14-point ?chalk.?

Bettors have seen monster upsets in the Big 12 Championship Game before. In fact, this combination of teams collided for one of the bigger upsets in NCAA history, at least in terms of the magnitude of the game.

Back in 1996, John Mackovic?s Texas team was a 20 ?-point underdog against Tom Osborne?s Cornhuskers, who were the defending national champs at the time. Behind the play of QB James Brown and a daring fourth-down call by Mackovic with the Longhorns leading and with the ball in their own territory late in the final stanza, Texas shocked the world with a 37-27 win.

Nebraska?s loss paved the way for Florida to get to the Sugar Bowl and a rematch with FSU for the national title. The Gators throttled the Seminoles 52-20 to give Steve Spurrier his lone ?national.?

This time around, it?s Texas looking to play for all the marbles with Nebraska serving as the last obstacle in its way. They?ll square off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

LVSC opened Ga. Tech as a one-point favorite over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. The total was 55 on the send-out. This game, previously played in Jacksonville, has moved to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

The Yellow Jackets and Tigers are both coming off losses to SEC schools in their regular-season finales. Georgia went into Bobby Dodd Stadium and captured a 30-24 victory as an eight-point road underdog. Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney?s team took woodshed treatment in the form of a 34-17 clubbing at South Carolina. The Gamecocks won outright as 3 ?-point home underdogs.

These ACC adversaries met on The Flats earlier this year. Clemson nearly rallied from a 24-0 deficit to upset Ga. Tech, but the Yellow Jackets got a 36-yard field goal from Scott Blair in the final minute to win a 30-27 decision. Nevertheless, the Tigers posted the backdoor cover as five-point road underdogs.

Since the conference went to a championship game, neither school has garnered an ACC title. This is Clemson?s first appearance, while the Yellow Jackets came up on the short end of a 9-6 decision against Wake Forest three years ago.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Championship Saturday will start at noon when East Carolina and Houston collide at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium for the C-USA title game in Greenville, NC. In other words, ECU will host the Cougars at home.

LVSC opened Houston as a one-point favorite with a total of 66.

The MAC Championship Game will be held Friday night at Ford Field in Detroit, pitting Ohio against Central Michigan. Due to the uncertain status of Bobcats? QB Theo Scott. LVSC didn?t send a line out Sunday, although Leroy?s had the Chippewas as 11-point favorites.



--Nebraska has only been an underdog twice this season, taking the cash in each instance (a 16-15 loss at Va. Tech and a 10-3 win over Oklahoma).

--The favorite has covered the spread in five consecutive Big 12 title games.

--The ?under? is 3-1 in the last four UF-Bama head-to-head encounters.

--Florida is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a single-digit 'chalk.'

--The ?over? has cashed in four straight Clemson games this year, but the ?under? is 4-1 in its last five head-to-head meetings against Ga. Tech.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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SEC title game: 'The real National Championship'

SEC title game: 'The real National Championship'

SEC title game: 'The real National Championship'


2009 SEC Championship Game: Florida vs. Alabama (+5.5)

The year was 1992.

President Bush had just left the White House for a Democratic administration, the U.S. was coming off a war with Iraq, the economy was in the crapper, health-care reform was the hot topic of conversation and Alabama and Florida were playing in the inaugural SEC Championship Game.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Fast forward to 2009, when national events have come full circle, and so has the chase for the SEC and national titles. With the No. 1 Gators and No. 2 Crimson Tide completing perfect regular seasons, the winner is assured a spot in the BCS title game and will likely be a heavy favorite.

Such a scenario seemed unlikely in 1992, when the new and controversial format for crowning an SEC champion was believed to make it impossible for the league to win another national title by adding another opportunity for a loss. The SEC has won six national titles since then.

Not only did Alabama go on to win it all that first year, but this year's SEC champ will have the chance to become the fourth straight national No. 1 to hail from the league. Southerners' half-joking reference to the SEC title tilt as ''the real national championship game'' is no joke this season.

These two teams have been the cream of the crop all season. Unlike in 1992, when the Gators and Steve Spurrier's Fun-N-Gun offense faced the Tide and Gene Stallings' Crimson Curtain defense, this year's teams are solid on both sides of the ball and should yield a chess match on turf.

Offense

The Gators and Superman-in-pads quarterback Tim Tebow get the nod in this one, with Florida averaging 37 points and 443 yards per game. Talk about balance; only TCU joins the Gators as the two teams to pile up more than 2,500 yards rushing and 2,500 yards passing on the season.

And the balancing act doesn't stop there. Tebow spreads the ball around like a mother bird feeds her young, forcing opponents to defend the entire field and all his weapons. His ability to run the triple-option and to throw from the pocket or on the run puts tons of pressure on defenses.

Tebow leads the team in rushing, but only because of the many options available to him on the handoff or inside/outside pitch. Running backs Jeffery Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody all have more than 50 carries from Tebow, who has 13 rushing TDs to their combined 11.

Tebow is even more effective at spreading the ball around to his receivers. Six have double-digits in receptions this year, led by tight end Aaron Hernandez and receiver Riley Cooper. Tebow's multiple targets make it difficult for defenses to cover the field and apply pressure.

Alabama may not have the depth of offensive weapons but the top producers are impressive. Sophomore running back Mark Ingram has been the workhorse for the Tide with over 1,400 yards and 12 TDs, but the Tide has begun to utilize quicker backs Trent Richardson and Roy Upchurch.

What may surprise those who view quarterback Greg McElroy as a weakness is the Tide's balance on offense - 417 total yards per game with 200 of it coming through the air. McElory has had a solid year statistically (16 TDs to 4 INTs), but he does have a tendency to be off-target.

His top three receivers are outstanding. Julio Jones, Marquis Maze and Colin Peek have combined for more than 1,000 yards through the air. But McElroy loves to use his backs out of the backfield as safety valves that can break free in the secondary. Ingram is also the team's third leading receiver.

Defense

Alabama gets the edge on defense, which is true no matter who it plays. The Tide's top-ranked defense is tough, physical, fast and smart - a reflection of head coach Nick Saban's philosophy. The Tide is allowing just over 10 points per outing and 239 total yards - third best nationally.

Linebacker Rolando McClain is once again the team's top tackler and the QB on defense. Nose guard Terrence Cody is a mountain of a man who can stuff the run and force Tebow to explore other avenues, while Mark Barron and Javier Arenas make plays no matter where the ball is.

The Tide has collected 19 interceptions this season, a tribute to both the secondary's speed and pressure applied to opposing quarterbacks. That may be easier said than done against Tebow, who has a strong line, patience in the pocket and the ability to run if protection breaks down.

Florida's defense is not far behind the Tide's. In fact, the Gators' D outranks them in several categories - the nation's No. 1 scoring defense (10 points per game) and No. 2 in total yards allowed per game (229.8). The Gators defense has allowed only 11 touchdowns all season.

Defensive end Carlos Dunlap and linebacker Brandon Spikes anchor the Gators' ability to stop the run up front as well as put pressure on McElroy in the backfield. If Alabama's veteran offensive line can control these two, good things can happen. If not, see the Gators' previous 12 games.

Florida is most dangerous when the ball is in the air with several lightning-fast secondary players who can make up ground in a hurry. The Gators have 20 interceptions on the season, three apiece for Joe Haden, A.J. Jones and Major Wright. They have the horses to hang with the Tide.

Intangibles

If failure is the best motivator then score one for the Tide in light of last year's 31-20 defeat at the hands of the Gators in the SEC title game. Alabama dominated the game for three quarters, but allowed Tebow to lead two long touchdowns drives in the final quarter for the easy win and the late cover (-10.5, ouch).

There are other factors that could sway the game Alabama's way. If the Tide can establish their running game and control the clock that will be their easiest path to victory. It's impossible for any team to shut down Tebow & Co., but Alabama must limit him and win the turnover battle. If the Tide can keep it close, it has a real advantage in field goal kicking with Leigh Tiffin, who has hit on 29-of-34 attempts this season with a longest of 50.

All other signs point to Florida, including the often overlooked factor of kick and punt returns. The Gators have speed to burn on their return teams, preventing Alabama from kicking away from the threat. The Tide has struggled all year at stopping teams from getting good starting field position.

And although Alabama may have the revenge factor as motivation, the Gators hold just about every other key factor. Tebow's leadership as a three-year starter, the experience of two national championships among the senior class and the desire to repeat are difficult for Alabama to overcome.

History may be on Alabama's side if you look at it from a historical perspective. It dominated the conference for years back when the Bear was there. But this isn't the 1960s, nor is it 1992. The Gators are 4-2 against the Tide in SEC championship games and 2009 looks to be their year.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Florida-Alabama remain 1-2 in BCS ahead of SEC title game

Florida-Alabama remain 1-2 in BCS ahead of SEC title game

Florida-Alabama remain 1-2 in BCS ahead of SEC title game

Florida and Alabama remain 1-2 in the latest Bowl Championship Series standings, but one of those teams could be knocked out of the title run after the squads play each other Saturday.

The Gators (12-0), coming off a 37-10 dismantling of Florida State, have a .9868 average while Alabama (12-0) is next at .9513. The Crimson Tide barely got by Auburn, 26-21, in the annual Iron Bowl Friday.

The winner of the SEC championship between the Gators and Crimson Tide will likely take on Texas (12-0) in the BCS national title game on January 7 at the Rose Bowl, assuming the Longhorns can get by Nebraska in the Big 12 championship contest this Saturday. Texas is coming off a 49-39 victory over Texas A&M Thanksgiving night.

This is the second straight year the Gators and Crimson Tide are playing in the SEC title game. Florida beat the Crimson Tide, 31-20, last year, on the way to topping Oklahoma for the national championship.

Texas' average is .9282, with that number being computed by averaging the percentage totals of the Harris Interactive poll, USA Today poll and computer rankings.

TCU (12-0) is fourth with a .8689 average. The Horned Frogs finished a perfect regular season and all but assured themselves a coveted BCS berth with a 51-10 rout of New Mexico on Saturday. TCU won the Mountain West Conference title outright with the lopsided victory.

Cincinnati (11-0), coming off a 49-36 win over Illinois on Friday, is fifth in the BCS. The Bearcats can clinch the Big East title with a win over Pittsburgh next weekend.

Boise State (12-0), which secured the Western Athletic Conference title with a win Friday over Nevada, is sixth in the standings.

Oregon (9-2) jumped one spot to seventh. Ohio State (10-2), Iowa (10-2) and Georgia Tech (10-2) round out the top 10. The Yellow Jackets fell from the seventh slot after a 30-24 loss to Georgia Saturday night.
 
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