nfl plays for 12/3 - 12/7....

AR182

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i'm going to be posting my plays earlier than usual this week because i will be in vegas (mirage hotel) from sunday until wednesday & will be without a computer....if anybody will be in vegas during these dates & wants to meet up for a few drinks, let me know....the first 2 are on me....

went 3-1 last week in the nfl to bring my record for the season to 23-21....

3*washington+10 (120)....

this play is a little above my normal play & would be even higher if i knew the status of campbell, who got a concussion last week....

this is a bad spot for the saints coming off their big win on mnf vs.the pats & having a key divisional game against the falcons after this game....in addition this warm weather dome team will be playing in potentially their coldest weather game of the year & on grass where they will not be as quick as they are on artificial turf....

despite key injuries to the team, wash.has shown toughness & resilliency during the 2nd half of the season....over the last 3 games, they upset denver by 10 as a 3 point home dog, lost to dallas by 1 point as an 11-point road dog & lost by 3 last week as a 9 point road dog to the eagles....they held dallas & phil. to a combined 3 tds....for the season the skins have covered 5 of 7 times as an underdog....only once this season have the redskins lost by more than 10 points & for the season they rank 1st in the nfl against the pass, 8th in total yards & 10th in scoring defense....on the other side of the ball, since they changed their offensive coordinator, wash. has averaged 327 ypg & 18 ppg compared to 294 ypg & 13 ppg before the change....

play against - favorites of 10 or more points (n.o.) -excellent offensive team (>=5.8 ypp) against a team with an average defense (4.9 to 5.4 ypp)....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....26-6....81.2%....

the average line posted in these games was.... opponent favored by 13.3....the average score in these games was....team 17.2, opponent 24.4....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....13-1....92.8%....


i also played....

under 44(120) balt. / green bay....

i may have a few more plays....


good luck....
 

Hooks

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Read this after Cies post. We're on the same page on this one.
i'll call you when your here. :00hour
 

freelancc

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good luck Al..the weather's beautiful..bring a sweater...had to actually turn on my heater for the first time this year...:sadwave:

I was at the Rio last week... but won't be there during your visit.

enjoy Celine Dion..:shrug:
 

AR182

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adding....

new england-4(125)....

when bellichek pulled the 1st string in the 4th quarter during the game against n.o. it indicated to me the importance he is placing on this game against miami....& his history as the ne coach has shown this to be true as the pats are 13-2 ats (87%) on the conference road....

other strong trends favoriing the pats....

ne is 18-3 ats (86%) off a su loss including winning & covering all 3 games this year by a combined score of 112-27....

in addition ne is 12-0 su & 11-1 ats (91.6%) in their last 12 games off a dd loss....& is 8-0 ats as division road favorite of 4 or more points....

i think in this game miami will be exposed as the kind of team that they really are....not ready to compete with the better teams as being out gained in 5 of the last 6 games indicates....


good luck....
 

AR182

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adding....

under 47 tenn / indy....

tenn is not the same team that lost 31-9 to indy earlier in the year....they are healthier in the defensive 2ndary....

since 1992 12 of 18 games in this series have gone under the total....including 4 of the last 5....

since 1992 8 of 10 games played in indy in this series have gone under the total....including the last 2....

1 of the last 9 games between these 2 teams have exceeded 47 total points scored....

play under - road teams against the total (tenn.) - after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a losing record....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....24-7....77.4%....

the average total posted in these games was....40.9....the average total points scored....35.6....


good luck....
 

kneifl

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thanks guys....

lance my friend....no celine dion this trip....just the "jersey boys"....

No Celine for me ever, lol:142smilie :142smilie I remember when my wife and I were in Vegas one time she wanted to go. I said I don't want to go and bought her a "premium" ticket with my Mom. They loved that shit....lol. Silly me, I must have won $400-500 from the SB that night.

Good luck on your picks Al, love the Washington pick it looks very easy though. I like Cinci the best on the card so far. Can't wait to see the line on the Cowboys game, your Gnats are going down :D Cowboys NFC East champions, I told you before the season started:shrug:

kneifl
 

tulah

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Love the plays...keep up the great capping...

I think you'll enjoy Jersey Boys...I did...I took the wifey last year while I was in the big apple....I was surprised that I really enjoyed it...

If you like creole style shell fish(shrimp,clams, crab ETC)
U gotta try the Palace station Oyster Bar...believe me its worth the wait in line..
The Pan Roast are incredible...Gumbo , Jambalaya, Cioppino and the chowder is awesome too...they have Cocktail style also...
Good eats...I swear..
Have fun in Vegas and GL
 

AR182

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thanks guys....appreciate it....

adding....

under 41(120) tb / carolina....

with carolina starting moore instead of jake & a rookie qb playing for tb, i think under is the way to go in this game because there should be plenty of running by both teams....

tb is 1-8 under away with division revenge, while car. is 0-9 under vs division revenge....

as the coach of carolina, fox is 20-8 under after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game....
the average score was carolina 17.8, opponent16.3....

as coach of carolina, fox is 17-5 under in home games versus division opponents....the average score was carolina 18.3, opponent 18.9....


good luck....
 

AR182

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adding....

denver-4 (120)....

denver will win this game in the trenches as they are #7 in the fewest sacks allowed & #4 in sacks by, while kc is # 31 & #30 respectively....this will enable orton to play mistake free football & take advantage of his receivers against the kc corners....

kc has lost 10 of its past 11 at arrowhead stadium & have allowed 8 of their 11 opponents to gain more than 400 yards....they rank 30th in total yardage allowed & are giving up 26 ppg (rank 28th)....


good luck....
 

AR182

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don't like the way the ne / miami line has been jumping all over the place, so i decided to buy back my ne play....so it looks like this....

n.e.-4 (125)....
miami+5 (130)....


good luck....
 

AR182

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Admit it Al,

You want to play Dallas this weekend. Now Dallas is a sure thing!!

kneifl

lol....unlike you my friend i have no problem playing against my favorite team....i would take the boys if they were a dog, but don't like them as a favorite....
 

kneifl

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lol....unlike you my friend i have no problem playing against my favorite team....i would take the boys if they were a dog, but don't like them as a favorite....

hahaha....lol

Check my threads, I bet against Dallas every so often. I have no problem betting on them or no play as well though :D

How about an avatar bet on the game?

kneifl
 
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