Can Nebraska Upset Texas?
Dreams of winning a national championship and the rebirth of a powerhouse are the possibilities for Saturday?s Big XII title game between Texas (12-0 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) and the Cornhuskers at Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
The Longhorns have every expectation of recreating the 70-3 romp they had for the crown over Colorado as 25 ?-point favorites in 2005. It?s Texas?s fifth trip to the conference championship round, going 2-2 in the first four attempts.
Nebraska (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) hasn?t been to this stage since dropping to the Sooners in 2006 as a 3 ?-point underdog, 21-7. The ?Huskers haven?t won the automatic BCS berth since Frank Solich?s eight-point faves over these same ?Horns, 22-6. They, too, have posted a 2-2 mark in the Big XII championship.
The sportsbooks don?t believe the Cornhuskers have much of a chance to pull off the upset. Texas has been installed as a 14 ?-point favorite with the total coming in at 47. Bettors still have the chance to cash in with a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500) on the money line if Nebraska wins outright.
So does Nebraska have a chance to make a game of it?
The ?Huskers have finished off the regular season with five straight games, covering the number in two of them, one of which was a 10-3 home triumph over Oklahoma on Nov. 7. What?s impressive about that win streak is they aren?t doing it with an offense that is terribly powerful.
Nebraska is averaging just 25.6 points per game and was about as vanilla as could be against the Buffaloes last week. The Cornhuskers are moving the chains on third down just 39.5 percent of the time to rank 59th nationally. That might have something to do with the fact that they can?t throw the ball to save their lives, averaging only 187.3 passing yards per game this year. ? That?s good enough for 93rd in the country.
The plus side for the ?Huskers here is hope as Texas A&M put up 342 yards through the air on Texas on Thanksgiving. Handicapper Marc Lawrence doesn?t put a lot of credit into Nebraska?s passing attack doing the same as the Aggies. ?Texas has held five teams to season low yards. And there is no reason to believe that the Cornhuskers? offense will suddenly find a passing game against this defense."
Texas does have the No. 39 pass defense in the nation, allowing just 201.4 YPG this year. And they?ve had success against some of the more prolific passing attacks in the Big XII. They gave up 143 yards to the Cowboys, 327 empty yards to the Sooners and 256 meaningless yards to the Jayhawks. While the final are decent amount of passing yards, they never allowed those three programs to get more than 20 points. And the ?Horns can capitalize on mistakes as they lead Big XII with 21 picks, returning four of them to the house.
With an offense that can?t pass effectively against a defense that can shut them down, you?ll have to look to the ground. Nebraska is picking up 147.4 rushing YPG this season. Roy Helu has racked up 1,111 yards on the ground with 10 scores this year to lead Nebraska.
For Helu to succeed, he?ll have to run up against the best defense against the run. No pressure at all, right? Texas has giving up just 61.8 YPG on the ground in 2009. Alabama is a distant second to them, giving up 77.1 YPG. The Longhorns have also surrendered five rushing touchdowns and only 59 first downs on the ground.
When you have a defense as imposing as Texas, you can be a little more relaxed on the attack. It doesn?t get more easy going than Colt McCoy. The Longhorns? signal caller is the 11th most efficient passer in the country this year with a 152.93. McCoy has focused a lot on Jordan Shipley over his career, but he?s splitting it this season with him, along with Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll. This group has accounted for 182 receptions that translated into 2,247 yards and 19 touchdowns. And we can?t forget the fact that Tre? Newton is coming off of a 107-yard rushing performance against the Aggies.
Nebraska has done quite well on defense for Bo Pelini in his second year. The Cornhuskers are 11th in total defense, giving up 291.4 YPG in 2009. And they have the No. 25 defense against the pass by allowing 189.5 YPG though the air.
Is this the best defense that the Longhorns will face? Marc Lawrence doesn?t believe that to be true. ?This is not the best defense the Horns will have faced this season that would have been Oklahoma's. Granted, the Huskers allowed more than 20 points in only one game this season (Texas Tech), and they have held three teams to season low yardage marks in 2009.? He concludes, ?In six games against conference opponents with a win percentage of .666 or greater, Pelini has allowed an average 38 PPG, surrendering more than 30 points in five of the six contests.?
The Cornhuskers are going to have to buck a trend that has come up in the title game for the South Division teams. Teams from the South have gone a healthy 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.
Now that number seems daunting, but the pups have ran wild in this head-to-head series as they?ve gone 3-5 SU, but 5-2-1 ATS since the first Big XII title game in 1996.
Texas doesn?t lose all that often when made a big favorite. They are 51-3 SU as a 10 ?-point favorite over the past five years. Bettors have been moderately successful with a 30-24 ATS in those games.
The Cornhuskers haven?t been all that successful as double-digit pups over the last five seasons. You can easily see that as they?re 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS mark when put in that spot.
Don?t forget you can catch this game on ABC starting at 8:00 p.m. EST.
Dreams of winning a national championship and the rebirth of a powerhouse are the possibilities for Saturday?s Big XII title game between Texas (12-0 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) and the Cornhuskers at Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
The Longhorns have every expectation of recreating the 70-3 romp they had for the crown over Colorado as 25 ?-point favorites in 2005. It?s Texas?s fifth trip to the conference championship round, going 2-2 in the first four attempts.
Nebraska (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) hasn?t been to this stage since dropping to the Sooners in 2006 as a 3 ?-point underdog, 21-7. The ?Huskers haven?t won the automatic BCS berth since Frank Solich?s eight-point faves over these same ?Horns, 22-6. They, too, have posted a 2-2 mark in the Big XII championship.
The sportsbooks don?t believe the Cornhuskers have much of a chance to pull off the upset. Texas has been installed as a 14 ?-point favorite with the total coming in at 47. Bettors still have the chance to cash in with a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500) on the money line if Nebraska wins outright.
So does Nebraska have a chance to make a game of it?
The ?Huskers have finished off the regular season with five straight games, covering the number in two of them, one of which was a 10-3 home triumph over Oklahoma on Nov. 7. What?s impressive about that win streak is they aren?t doing it with an offense that is terribly powerful.
Nebraska is averaging just 25.6 points per game and was about as vanilla as could be against the Buffaloes last week. The Cornhuskers are moving the chains on third down just 39.5 percent of the time to rank 59th nationally. That might have something to do with the fact that they can?t throw the ball to save their lives, averaging only 187.3 passing yards per game this year. ? That?s good enough for 93rd in the country.
The plus side for the ?Huskers here is hope as Texas A&M put up 342 yards through the air on Texas on Thanksgiving. Handicapper Marc Lawrence doesn?t put a lot of credit into Nebraska?s passing attack doing the same as the Aggies. ?Texas has held five teams to season low yards. And there is no reason to believe that the Cornhuskers? offense will suddenly find a passing game against this defense."
Texas does have the No. 39 pass defense in the nation, allowing just 201.4 YPG this year. And they?ve had success against some of the more prolific passing attacks in the Big XII. They gave up 143 yards to the Cowboys, 327 empty yards to the Sooners and 256 meaningless yards to the Jayhawks. While the final are decent amount of passing yards, they never allowed those three programs to get more than 20 points. And the ?Horns can capitalize on mistakes as they lead Big XII with 21 picks, returning four of them to the house.
With an offense that can?t pass effectively against a defense that can shut them down, you?ll have to look to the ground. Nebraska is picking up 147.4 rushing YPG this season. Roy Helu has racked up 1,111 yards on the ground with 10 scores this year to lead Nebraska.
For Helu to succeed, he?ll have to run up against the best defense against the run. No pressure at all, right? Texas has giving up just 61.8 YPG on the ground in 2009. Alabama is a distant second to them, giving up 77.1 YPG. The Longhorns have also surrendered five rushing touchdowns and only 59 first downs on the ground.
When you have a defense as imposing as Texas, you can be a little more relaxed on the attack. It doesn?t get more easy going than Colt McCoy. The Longhorns? signal caller is the 11th most efficient passer in the country this year with a 152.93. McCoy has focused a lot on Jordan Shipley over his career, but he?s splitting it this season with him, along with Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll. This group has accounted for 182 receptions that translated into 2,247 yards and 19 touchdowns. And we can?t forget the fact that Tre? Newton is coming off of a 107-yard rushing performance against the Aggies.
Nebraska has done quite well on defense for Bo Pelini in his second year. The Cornhuskers are 11th in total defense, giving up 291.4 YPG in 2009. And they have the No. 25 defense against the pass by allowing 189.5 YPG though the air.
Is this the best defense that the Longhorns will face? Marc Lawrence doesn?t believe that to be true. ?This is not the best defense the Horns will have faced this season that would have been Oklahoma's. Granted, the Huskers allowed more than 20 points in only one game this season (Texas Tech), and they have held three teams to season low yardage marks in 2009.? He concludes, ?In six games against conference opponents with a win percentage of .666 or greater, Pelini has allowed an average 38 PPG, surrendering more than 30 points in five of the six contests.?
The Cornhuskers are going to have to buck a trend that has come up in the title game for the South Division teams. Teams from the South have gone a healthy 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.
Now that number seems daunting, but the pups have ran wild in this head-to-head series as they?ve gone 3-5 SU, but 5-2-1 ATS since the first Big XII title game in 1996.
Texas doesn?t lose all that often when made a big favorite. They are 51-3 SU as a 10 ?-point favorite over the past five years. Bettors have been moderately successful with a 30-24 ATS in those games.
The Cornhuskers haven?t been all that successful as double-digit pups over the last five seasons. You can easily see that as they?re 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS mark when put in that spot.
Don?t forget you can catch this game on ABC starting at 8:00 p.m. EST.
