WEEK 14 INFO AND STUFF

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Books prepare for Charger action

Motivation levels in people tend to decrease when they realize a sought after goal can no longer be attained.

Six teams have been mathematically eliminated from the NFL postseason.

The Chiefs, Browns, Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers and Rams will either look to play spoiler during the last month of the 2009 season or start scouting the collegiate ranks to see who their No. 1 draft pick might be.

John Avello, Race and Sports Director at Wynn Las Vegas, spoke to ***com on Monday and discussed the drive some of these teams might or might not have in the coming weeks and how it could affect betting patterns.

?Remember we?re talking about pro athletes,? Avello said. ?These guys are making a lot of money so they are supposed to be giving 100 percent. That being said, I don?t know how much emotions or getting up for a game play into it.

?For many of these teams, the season was lost long ago. Bettors might be inclined to play against them, but the adjustment is already in the number.?

Most of these teams appear to be exerting a genuine effort down the stretch. If you remove Detroit from the equation, the remaining five teams have gone 17-8 against the spread over their last five games.

One game on the board this week that maintains massive playoff implications is the matchup between the Chargers and Cowboys.

Dallas? post-November woes continued with a loss to the Giants last week and now the ?Boys are in jeopardy of fumbling away a postseason berth for the second straight year.

San Diego on the other hand, is quietly playing the best football in the NFL. The Super Chargers have won seven straight and defeated their opponents by a margin of 16.0 points during that span.

Avello and the Wynn opened the spread at 3 in favor of the Cowboys with a total of 48.5.

?I would expect to see Charger money in this game with the feeling that the Chargers will lose close, if they do lose,? said Avello, who believes this spread could move to 2.5 by Sunday. ?To me 3 is the home-field advantage for the Cowboys and that?s it. Home-field advantage may be a little stronger because of the new stadium where they seem to play their best football.?

Dallas is 5-1 straight up at home while going 4-2 against the number.

Another game that will affect the NFC East race and likely a wild card berth is the Sunday night affair between the Eagles and Giants.

As a bettor and oddsmaker, it is tough to get a grasp on both of these teams.

Although Philadelphia has won three straight, two of those victories came in nail-biters against the Bears and Redskins while the latest win over Atlanta was aided by injuries to Matt Ryan and Michael Turner.

Donovan McNabb has been erratic at times and the long-term absence of all-purpose back Brian Westbrook is still unknown. Regardless, the Eagles are accruing wins down the stretch, much like 2008, and pushing toward a playoff spot.

The Giants sandwiched wins over the Cowboys and Falcons with an ugly Thanksgiving Day loss to the Broncos. The defense has been depleted by injuries and Eli Manning?s foot problems are still lingering.

Avello sent out the New York as a 1-point favorite with a total of 46. In the first meeting between these teams in Week 8, Philly won 40-17 as a 1-point underdog.

?The game should be a pick ?em,? Avello said. ?It?s just a tough call. The Giants home-field advantage in the past was four points, but I?m only giving them three points right now. It would not be a surprise to see the Eagles shift to -1.?

?What have you done for me lately? is a clich?d proverb in the world of sports betting. That adage held true when Avello released the spread for the marquee matchup of the week between the Bengals and Vikings.

?That loss [Sunday] night for the Vikings made me lower this number,? he said. ?I think I would have been on this game possibly at 7.5 (if Minnesota doesn?t get blown out by Arizona), but I opened the game at 6.5 with a total of 44.?

Brett Favre reverted back to old ways in the loss to the Cardinals, throwing two interceptions while playing from behind most of the game. Adrian Peterson was held to a season-low 19 yards on 13 carries and his recent case of fumblitis has people questioning if he, or the Titans? Chris Johnson, is the best back in the league.

Cincinnati and Minnesota are nearly guaranteed playoff spots, but both are fighting for optimal seedings.
 

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Books win big on Sunday

Books win big on Sunday

Books win big on Sunday



Week 13 in the NFL was a big winner the Las Vegas Sportsbooks, the best of the season. It?s very rare when the Books beat both the Sharps and Public in the same weekend, but that?s what happened Sunday. They did well in straight bets, parlays, and teasers across the board.

The favorites went 4-10, basically eliminating any substantial liability heading into the Monday night game. Of all the games that moved, from last Monday?s openers to kickoff on Sunday, only three of the moves got there signifying that the big money didn?t win.

Of the ten underdogs that covered, six of them won straight up -- two of them against teams that have combined to win five Super Bowls in the last decade.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, a 15 ?-point favorite by kickoff, got beat straight up by the Oakland Raiders. The New England Patriots, a 5-point road favorite at Miami, lost straight up as well. Those two games alone wiped out a huge chunk of the days parlays and teasers eliminating much of the days risk.

Two of the moves that got there this week were the Broncos, who opened as 4 ?-point favorites closing at 5 ?, and the Redskins who were getting 9 ? points on the opener and closed at 8 ?.

The Broncos pounded the Chiefs at Arrowhead, something that no one has ever been able to say. The Redskins looked as though were going to join the upset party that Oakland and Miami started, but fell short late, eventually losing 33-30 in overtime.

The busiest game of the day for action was the late game where the home underdog Cardinals won outright over the Vikings. Many books treated the game with extreme caution due to Kurt Warner?s status, but it didn?t stop the public.


The combination of it being a marquee match-up with Brett Favre and the one-loss Vikings along with being the late get-back game for the public generated great two-way action creating a four-way win for the most books.

For once, the Books were able to sit back, relax, and watch a Sunday night game without having to sweat out a side.

Other teams helping the Sports Books win big this week included the Jaguars, Lions, and Browns.

The Rams had action against them as the Bears moved from the opener of 8 to 8 ? points. Early in the fourth quarter, Rams kicker Josh Brown booted a 50-yard field goal making the score Bears 17-9 which is where it ended, ultimately hooking all bettors who tried to bet against the lowly Rams.

It wasn?t too long ago when we were writing about how the sportsbooks couldn?t make the lines high enough for teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Lions. They were easy bet against teams that the public pounded on every week in their parlays.

But just as the Directors and linesmakers across the city said back then, it will cycle around. The tide has turned. These are professional football teams and they are finally playing as their true rating has them. Pro football is as tough as ever. Collectively, the old ugly four went 4-0 against the number last week.

Fiesta Bowl

Even though the Fiesta Bowl BCS match-up of TCU-Boise State will turn out to be one of the better games, I don?t like how the college football machine basically frowned upon each team by putting them together. It?s as if to say, ?Okay, you both made a BCS bowl from your non-BCS conferences, so go play it, and leave us alone.?

The Fiesta Bowl did a great job by getting both undefeated teams because they know it will garner lots of attention. Being able to say they are one of the only two Bowl games that have two undefeated teams is nice, but I would have rather seen an opportunity to have four undefeated teams at seasons end to help the cause in getting a playoff system going.

I would have also liked to have seen Boise State or TCU get the chance to play Florida. If either team would have beat a power like Florida, who was ranked No. 1 nearly all season, it would have really been a boost to their conference?s profile.

As it stands now, everyone wipes their hands clean of what had been a mounting thorn in the side of college football and their perfect BCS system.

TCU was suggested by Las Vegas Sports Consultants as a 4-point favorite over Boise State, but the boys over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book thought it was much too light so they added four more points opening the game at 8.

Only the BCS games are posted as of Sunday night. Expect to see all the board games pop up everywhere in the next few days.
 

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Coaching Down the Stretch

Coaching Down the Stretch

Coaching Down the Stretch
December 8, 2009

The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes race. It's where big races are won and lost.

Its been said many times over that if you don?t have the horse you won?t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. There are times, though, when the ride the horse gets by the jockey can put the team together in the winner?s circle. It's why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success - or failure - whichever the case may be.

Listed below are the current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 - minimum 8 results (current affiliation in parenthesis). All results are ATS (Against The Spread). We recommend you keep this list right alongside your form, or schedule, as it's a good way to help find the winner?s circle this stage of the season...

BELICHICK (Patriots)
Overall: 30-22
Home: 17-8
Away: 13-14
Favorite: 21-14
Dog: 9-8
Best: 10-2 home w/revenge
Worst: 1-4 DD fav off DD win



CHILDRESS (Vikings)
Overall: 4-8
Home: 0-6
Away: 4-2
Favorite: 1-7
Dog: 3-1
Best: 3-0 road dog
Worst: 0-6 home

COUGHLIN (Giants)
Overall: 29-23
Home: 13-13
Away: 16-10
Favorite: 17-15
Dog: 12-8
Best: 10-2 vs opp of BB losses
Worst: 4-0 vs opp off SU dog win

DEL RIO (Jaguars)
Overall: 12-12
Home: 8-5
Away: 4-7
Favorite: 7-5
Dog: 5-7
Best: 3-0 dog w/revenge
Worst: 1-7 vs opp off win w/revenge

FISHER (Titans)
Overall: 31-28
Home: 17-16
Away: 14-12
Favorite: 17-18
Dog: 14-10
Best: 12-1 off win vs opp of win 7 >
Worst: 0-5 fav > 3 off ATS loss 5 >

FOX (Panthers)
Overall: 16-12
Home: 7-6
Away: 9-6
Favorite: 10-7
Dog: 6-5
Best: 6-0 off win w/div revenge
Worst: 0-6 off win 17 >

KUBIAK (Texans)
Overall: 8-4
Home: 7-1
Away: 1-3
Favorite: 3-2
Dog: 5-2
Best: 6-0 home vs .461 >
Worst: 1-3 away

LEWIS (Bengals)
Overall: 10-13-1
Home: 4-7-1
Away: 6-6
Favorite: 5-7-1
Dog: 5-6
Best: 3-1 road favorite
Worst: 1-7 after score 24 >

MANGINI (Browns)
Overall: 5-7
Home: 1-5
Away: 4-2
Favorite: 1-6
Dog: 4-1
Best: 4-0 road dog
Worst: 0-6 fav < 10

McCARTHY (Packers)
Overall: 7-5
Home: 3-3
Away: 4-2
Favorite: 4-5
Dog: 3-0
Best: 3-0 off DD loss
Worst: 1-3 vs div opp off loss

PAYTON (Saints)
Overall: 7-4-1
Home: 3-3
Away: 4-1-1
Favorite: 4-2
Dog: 3-1-1
Best: 5-0 vs opp off loss 6 >
Worst: 0-3 vs opp off ATS win 13 >

PHILLIPS (Cowboys)
Overall: 13-20-2
Home: 6-10
Away: 7-10-2
Favorite: 8-11-1
Dog: 5-9-1
Best: 3-0-1 w/revenge off loss 7 <
Worst: 0-5 fav 8 >

REID (Eagles)
Overall: 23-17
Home: 8-9
Away: 15-8
Favorite: 9-11
Dog: 14-6
Best: 9-2 dog > 4
Worst: 1-6 fav > 8

SMITH L (Bears)
Overall: 7-11-2
Home: 4-5-1
Away: 3-6-1
Favorite: 3-6-2
Dog: 3-5
Best: 3-0 dog off BB losses
Worst: 0-7 off BB wins

TOMLIN (Steelers)
Overall: 4-4
Home: 2-1
Away: 2-3
Favorite: 3-3
Dog: 1-1
Best: 2-0 off SU fav loss
Worst: 0-2 off division

TURNER (Chargers)
Overall: 21-20
Home: 10-8
Away: 11-12
Favorite: 11-12
Dog: 10-8
Best: 8-1 off BB wins
Worst: 1-4 vs opp off SU dog win

WHISENHUNT (Cardinals)
Overall: 3-5
Home: 3-2
Away: 0-3
Favorite: 3-2
Dog: 0-3
Best: 3-0 home vs division
Worst: 0-4 vs non division
 

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Tomlin: Some Steelers about to lose jobs

Tomlin: Some Steelers about to lose jobs

Tomlin: Some Steelers about to lose jobs
December 7, 2009


PITTSBURGH (AP) -No more motivational slogans from coach Mike Tomlin. No more talk of his Pittsburgh Steelers redeeming themselves for past mistakes. No more grandiose promises to unleash havoc on the NFL for the rest of the season.


Tomlin's response to the Super Bowl champions' latest improbable loss and the franchise's longest losing streak since a five-game slide in 2003? He's taking out an eraser and wiping away names.

A starter gone here, a backup moving up there. A rookie starts, a veteran goes to the bench.

The Steelers traditionally don't make panicky personnel moves or bench a player because of a bad game or two. But what Tomlin calls ``a pattern of behavior that's unacceptable'' during a four-game slump will result in lineup changes Thursday in Cleveland.

``I assure you there are going to be some,'' Tomlin said Monday, calling the Steelers ``a very average team ... and our recent record might indicate that's a kind assessment.''

Rookie cornerback Joe Burnett is expected to start for the oft-beaten William Gay, who sustained a concussion late in the Steelers' can-you-believe-it 27-24 loss to the Raiders on Sunday. Gay might not play in Cleveland.

Another rookie cornerback, Keenan Lewis, plus defensive end Ziggy Hood and wide receiver Mike Wallace, also might earn elevated status for the Browns (1-11). Wallace is expected to start if Hines Ward (hamstring) can't go, which seems likely given the short week.

``We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change,'' Tomlin said. ``That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business.''

Tomlin, who hasn't been tested like this previously during his three seasons in Pittsburgh, stayed patient during an 18-12 loss to Cincinnati and twin overtime defeats to the Chiefs and Ravens. Losing three leads in the fourth quarter against the lowly Raiders (4-8) made him lose that, and a lot more.

Tomlin was as close to agitated as he gets in public on Monday, suggesting longevity and loyalty don't count for nearly as much when a team is losing like the Steelers are.

``Nothing stays the same in this game,'' Tomlin said. ``Players are ascending, players are descending. People catch up with schemes, schemes evolve. Playing and coaching, this thing is ever-changing.''

A defense that was easily the NFL's best a year ago squandered three leads in the final eight-plus minutes Sunday as Bruce Gradkowski became the first Raiders quarterback in 30 years to throw three TD passes in the fourth quarter. It was the fifth time in six losses the Steelers' defense couldn't hold a lead in the fourth quarter.

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes said ``the party was getting ready to get started'' when Ward caught an 11-yard TD pass in the final two minutes that put Pittsburgh ahead 24-20, but the defense didn't hold up.

``That's how we felt, knowing that the offense went down and did our job,'' Holmes said. ``We left everything to the defense. A couple of mishaps here and there, and they (the Raiders) won the ballgame.''

A couple of mishaps against the Chiefs and Raiders, two teams that figured to give them little trouble, and the Steelers are 6-6 instead of being at least 8-4. No wonder Tomlin is concerned about his team's confidence, which was shaken when the special teams recently gave up four kickoff return touchdowns in five games.

``You've got to acknowledge the potential this can be kind of a shaken group,'' Tomlin said. ``We've swallowed a lot. I'm going to be looking very closely at these men ... in terms of who legitimately is mentally tough and who can stand the test of adversity.''

No matter what happens down the stretch, the Steelers are expected to undergo more changes than usual during the offseason. There could be coaching staff moves - none was made following the Super Bowl win - and more departing veterans than usual, particularly from a defense loaded with starters in their 30s.

It hasn't helped that star safety Tory Polamalu has missed seven games and most of two others with a pair of left knee injuries. The Steelers are 2-5 when he doesn't start, and he's unlikely to play in Cleveland.

``I'm, not going to make excuses,'' Tomlin said. ``I think we're capable of playing winning football with or without Troy. Are we different? Yes, because Troy's a unique individual. Maybe the ceiling is different but the floor, the level of expectation, is the same.''
 

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Steelers' Ward may miss Browns game
December 7, 2009


PITTSBURGH (AP) -Wide receiver Hines Ward strained a hamstring near the end of the Pittsburgh Steelers' 27-24 loss to the Oakland Raiders and is expected to miss Thursday night's game in Cleveland.


Coach Mike Tomlin says that with a short week of preparation, Ward is ``very questionable.'' Ward leads the Steelers (6-6) with 72 catches and six touchdowns and is 78 yards away from his sixth career 1,000-yard season.

Safety Troy Polamalu hasn't resumed practicing and is expected to miss a fourth consecutive game - and his eighth this season - with a left knee injury. Cornerback William Gay also may not play because of a concussion.
 

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Why the Browns aren't as bad as you think

Why the Browns aren't as bad as you think

Why the Browns aren't as bad as you think

Cleveland Browns

Despite their miserable season, I think the Browns have the potential to return to respectability faster than many other teams at the bottom of the standings. They have a QB of the future in Brady Quinn, a couple of talented players on the offensive line and an emerging young receiver in Mohammed Massaquoi.

The Browns have talent on the defensive side of the football particularly in the back seven. A new coach, a fresh coat of paint, a couple of contributing draft picks and voila -- a .500 finish in 2010.

Kansas Chiefs

There?s very little to like about the Chiefs these days, on either side of the football. KC?s defense has only notched 17 sacks for the entire season and the defensive line is getting blown off the line of scrimmage on running plays as well.

Before the two minute drill in the first half, KC managed only one drive that didn't result in a three and out. This offense lacks weapons every bit as much as the defense does. Matt Cassell finished the game with a 14.6 QB rating before he was mercifully benched in the fourth quarter.

Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning really is playing at a higher level than any other QB in the league. No other QB in the league can drop a perfect pass, finding a half yard window into double coverage to hit his receiver in stride. No one else manages the clock as effectively as Manning and no other QB reads defenses quite so effectively. He never gets confused or rattled by pressure or schemes of opposing defenses.

Pittsburgh Steelers

This defense is a far cry from last year's Super Bowl winning group. Cornerback William Gay got burned repeatedly in coverage against a poor passing team before going down with an injury in the fourth quarter. But it's more than just one player getting torched.

Last year's defense was capable of changing games on a weekly basis. This year's stop unit simply isn't making big plays, leaving a mediocre offense (only seven plays longer than 10 yards through the first three quarters against Oakland) to produce all the points.

It?s clear Pittsburgh badly misses Troy Polamalu. The All-Pro safety has missed most of the year with a knee injury. Without him in the lineup, Pittsburgh struggles to get turnovers.

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub got hurt early, leaving Rex Grossman to shoulder the load for Houston at the QB position in a 'must win' divisional game on the road. By the time Schaub returned to the field late in the second quarter, his team trailed 17-0, which basically tells us all we need to know about Grossman's ability to move the offense.

This run defense has improved by leaps and bounds since the beginning of the season. Houston had a nice goal line stand early, shutting down Maurice Jones-Drew. They did it again facing a first and goal from the five yard line in the second half. But as the run defense has improved, Houston's pass defense has declined -- Garrard picked them apart throughout.
 

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How the books fared this weekend

How the books fared this weekend

How the books fared this weekend

The book loves the underdogs. The book loves the underdogs. The book loves the underdogs.

We?re just trying to make this as clear as we can, because the majority of the general football bettors still live and die with the favorites, so that makes a big underdog weekend profitable here at Bodog. And that was the case in the NFL in Week 13.

Five dogs won outright (not including the Monday nighter in any of these categories): Oakland, Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle and Arizona. Four more covered: Detroit, Washington, St. Louis and Cleveland. The favorites that covered were both New York teams, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Carolina.

Overall, the three biggest decisions for the book were Arizona +3.5, Cleveland +14 and Miami +5. The players won back some of their money with favorites like Denver -6 and Philadelphia -4.5.

Two of the big movers in terms of line fluctuation were Tampa Bay at Carolina and San Diego at Cleveland. The Panthers opened as 6.5-point favorites but closed at -4. This move no doubt was based largely on the injuries to Carolina starting QB Jake Delhomme and stud running back DeAngelo Williams.

Carolina still covered both spreads, thanks in large part to Bucs rookie QB Josh Freeman throwing five interceptions ? the most picks by a Tampa Bay QB since Vinny Testaverde threw five 19 years ago. By all rights, the Bucs should have covered at a minimum as they were inside the Carolina 30-yard line eight times and scored six points. Both of the NFL?s two other rookie starting quarterbacks covered Sunday, for what it?s worth.

The other big mover this week was the Chargers moving from 12-point favorites to -14. Of course the Browns covered both of those in their 30-23 loss. We are really starting to see bettors get on the San Diego bandwagon and Sunday?s game wasn?t as close as the score would indicate. The Chargers outgained inept Cleveland 208-10 in the third quarter. The Browns did actually take the initial lead in the game, which we mention because they scored a TD on their first possession for the first time in 35 games.

It will be interesting to see how the public leans for Thursday?s Pittsburgh-Cleveland game in Week 14. It seems as though bettors have soured on the sinking Steelers, who have lost four games in a row and have yet to cover in back-to-back calendar weeks this season (4-8 ATS overall - they did cover before and after their bye week, which was the last time they won).

As an aside, we will have updated NFL odds at Bodog on Wednesday on whether the Colts and Saints can finish the season unbeaten.

Looking at college football?s final weekend of the regular season, the big game as far as a decision for the book was the Cincinnati-Pitt shootout. The game opened at -2.5 for Cincinnati, but the sharp money pushed the line down to where it eventually closed at -1. With Pitt only losing by one we had fared well, although, players who were on the game late got a push. The next biggest decision was East Carolina being a 3-point home dog to Houston in the C-USA title game and winning outright.

The line for the SEC Championship Game was solid and the book was locked in a black-and-black position. The players obviously fared well on the Alabama money line as well as the over.

The Big 12 title game ended in very dramatic fashion, but whether that Texas kick went through the uprights or not was basically irrelevant to us because Nebraska covered the 14 points and the under was also a win for us. Because the Huskers were such big dogs, there was no money line offered on that one.
 

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Falcons QB Ryan to practice, could play vs. Saints

Falcons QB Ryan to practice, could play vs. Saints

Falcons QB Ryan to practice, could play vs. Saints

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan will practice Wednesday and could play Sunday vs. the unbeaten New Orleans Saints, coach Mike Smith said Monday.

Smith said Ryan would be at practice Wednesday and would be evaluated throughout the week, adding that his quarterback made progress by taking last week off.

Ryan suffered a turf toe injury in last week's win over Tampa Bay and did not play in Sunday's loss to Philadelphia. He has thrown for 2,291 yards and 16 TDs this season.

Most books are waiting to see whether Ryan will play or not but the few shops that do have odds are listing the Falcons as 9.5-point home dogs.
 

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Jets' Rex Ryan thinks quarterback Mark Sanchez will start against Tampa Bay

Jets' Rex Ryan thinks quarterback Mark Sanchez will start against Tampa Bay

Jets' Rex Ryan thinks quarterback Mark Sanchez will start against Tampa Bay


With Mark Sanchez working overtime to treat his sprained posterior cruciate ligament, Rex Ryan sounded very confident his rookie quarterback will start against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

"He is so much better," Ryan reported Monday. "We thought we were going to get good news from the MRI, we did. If it is in the opinion of the medical staff that Mark can't protect himself the way he needs to, then obviously that decision will be easy to where he doesn't play. Right now, we are feeling very good about where he is now and I think the doctors are too. Does it take a turn and go south? Maybe it could, but right now we feel very good about how he is progressing."

Ryan played it safe and held his quarterback out of Monday's practice to let the rookie continue his rehab. Sanchez spent the majority of the weekend at the team facility working around the clock to get his knee better after spraining his right PCL - which by definition is a slight or partial tear - against Buffalo. The rookie was injured when he dived and banged his knee on the hard turf at Rogers Centre in Toronto trying to run for a first down.

According to Dr. Eric Freeman - who practices orthopedic sports medicine in Cedarhurst, L.I., and completed a study on PCL injuries in the NFL while doing his fellowship training with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1999 - a quarterback with a mild PCL sprain can return in a week to three weeks. PCL injuries are more common among NFL linemen, who can typically return to action more quickly quicker because they don't have to cut or run as much as a quarterback or running back.

If Sanchez can play against the Buccaneers on Sunday, he will have to wear a knee brace for protection. The rookie already wears a brace on his left knee from a previous injury.

While Tampa is only 1-11 and starts its own rookie quarterback, Ryan said he won't hold Sanchez out as a precautionary measure if the quarterback is cleared to play just because the Jets (6-6) might be able to get by with Kellen Clemens. In the meantime, Clemens will take reps with the first team as he did Monday, just in case.

Ryan also wouldn't say if Sanchez can start if he doesn't practice this week.

"We'll have to see," the coach said. "We'll weigh all those things and see where he is. I don't really want to get into the what-ifs and 'if he misses X amount of practices,' 'no he won't play,' or 'yes he will play.' I'd rather see it play out. Again, I'll make a good decision based on our medical staff and factor in all of those things."

In the meantime, Sanchez will continue to spend as much time as he can rehabbing.

"If there are 18 hours a day, that is what it seems like," Ryan said of Sanchez's weekend at the facility in Florham Park. "He's been here the whole time. His spirits are good. I know he expects to play. We're optimistic he'll play."
 

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LVSC Rankings - Week 14

LVSC Rankings - Week 14

LVSC Rankings - Week 14
December 10, 2009

The top three teams in the latest Las Vegas Sports Consultants NFL power rankings remained the same this week, but there were a number of significant changes in the middle.

The Saints stayed atop the rankings after rallying past the Redskins in overtime, as New Orleans moved to 12-0. Sean Payton's team overcame several double-digit deficits to shock Washington, but the Saints are just 2-4 ATS the last six games. New Orleans makes the short trip to Atlanta this Sunday to battle the beat-up Falcons.

The Colts are in the second spot once again, as Indianapolis halted Tennessee's five-game winning streak to improve to 12-0. Peyton Manning and the Colts have wrapped up the AFC South title while inching closer to home-field advantage in the AFC. Indianapolis hosts Denver this Sunday, as the Broncos try to solidify a position in the AFC playoffs.

Despite getting worked in Arizona on Sunday night, the Vikings remain in the third position. Minnesota suffered its first conference loss of the season to fall to 10-2, now sitting two games back of New Orleans for the top seed in the NFC. The Vikings return home this week for another test, hosting the AFC North leading Bengals.

The Chargers improved one spot from 5th to 4th, following a 30-23 victory at Cleveland. San Diego is battling Cincinnati for the second seed in the AFC, as the two teams hook up in Southern California in Week 15. This Sunday, the Bolts go for their 16th consecutive December victory, traveling to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.

New England swapped spots with San Diego in the rankings after the Pats fell at Miami. The Patriots have won only one road game this season, and that victory came in London against Tampa Bay. Bill Belichick's team returns to Foxboro this Sunday to host Carolina, as the Pats own a one-game lead over both the Dolphins and Jets in the AFC East.


The Cardinals jumped four spots from 11th to 7th after blowing out the Vikings. Arizona is in firm control of the NFC West at 8-4, but may end being locked into the third or fourth seed in the NFC. The Cards will be showcased on Monday Night, traveling to the Bay Area to face the Niners.

Green Bay ascended nicely this week, moving up three positions with their home victory over Baltimore. The Packers have won four straight following an embarrassing road loss at Tampa Bay. Green Bay heads to Soldier Field this Sunday to battle Chicago, as the Pack goes for the season sweep of the Bears.

The Steelers dropped the most of any team, as Pittsburgh is ranked 11th this week following its fourth straight loss. Mike Tomlin's squad fell outright as a 14 ?-point home favorite to the Raiders, as the Steelers slipped to 6-6, and are in danger of missing the playoffs. Pittsburgh hopes for a reprieve this week, heading to Cleveland on Thursday night to face the lowly Browns.

Below is the latest LVSC NFL Rankings for Week 14.

LVSC NFL Power Rankings - Week 14
Rank Team Last Week Rating
1 New Orleans 1 143.0
2 Indianapolis 2 142.5
3 Minnesota 3 141.8
4 San Diego 5 141.0
5 New England 4 140.5
6 Philadelphia 6 140.2
7 Arizona 11 140.0
8 Cincinnati 8 139.4
9 Green Bay 12 139.2
10 Dallas 8 139.0
11 Pittsburgh 6 138.5
12 N.Y. Giants 14 138.2
13 Baltimore 10 138.0
14 Tennessee 15 136.0
14 Denver 20 136.0
16 Atlanta 12 135.6
17 Miami 18 135.2
18 San Francisco 17 134.9
19 Houston 16 134.8
20 N.Y. Jets 19 134.6
21 Jacksonville 22 133.6
22 Carolina 21 133.0
23 Chicago 23 132.7
24 Washington 23 132.4
25 Seattle 25 131.8
26 Buffalo 26 129.7
27 Kansas City 27 128.8
28 Oakland 29 128.3
29 Tampa Bay 28 127.7
30 Cleveland 31 126.0
31 Detroit 31 125.9
32 St. Louis 30 125.8
 

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In the shadows
Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

Scheduling and odds to making the Super Bowl

With one quarter of the season remaining in the NFL, the pretenders and contenders are sorting their way out. This week we?ll take a look at the prospects of the main contenders for the 12 available spots in the postseason and what their current odds are to win their respective conferences are. As is always the case in the NFL, one injury or loss can completely change how a team is viewed and seeing I don?t work for MSNBC or Fox News, I can?t predict the future nearly as well as they do. Thus, I will use my knowledge of the facts and extrapolate them.

The New Orleans Saints are -125 to win the NFC and are on pace to make history. As great as the Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were in 2007, the Saints appear better in some ways. They have a greater diversification of weapons and can play different styles to beat opponents. Drew Brees and Sean Payton are in that Bill Walsh/Joe Montana oneness of mind, thinking up schemes that free up players to catch passes and open chasms for running backs is artistic in the football sense. The Saints still have to play all three division foes and they have a good history at Atlanta and at Carolina. They have Dallas in Week 15, which is toughest remaining test. New Orleans should stay focused with Minnesota directly behind them.

There are three leading candidates for MVP, but only one is 40 years old and arguably is having his best season. The season has to play out, but no one player has impacted his team more in a positive sense than No.4. Minnesota is +140 at Sportsbook.com to take the NFC crown and Brett Favre has made a pedestrian receiving core well above average and taken pressure off Adrian Peterson. The defense is still improving and extremely fast on the carpet. Minnesota?s two toughest games remaining are at the Metrodome in Week 14 and 17 vs. Cincinnati and the Giants. They will be road favorites at Carolina and Chicago.

With the Cowboys putrid record in last four games of the regular season (11-25 SU, 12-23-1 ATS last nine years), this year?s slate isn?t conducive to winning either. In order, Dallas takes on San Diego, at New Orleans, at Washington and Philadelphia. Now tied for first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys are listed as +1500 to take conference.

The defending NFC champions Arizona (+700) should improve on last year?s 9-7 record facing San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis the next three weeks (the first two as visitors) and if all goes as presumed, their last game of the year might mean something to Green Bay.

The wild card picture at the moment has four teams for two spots. Atlanta has a chance, but they have to win out. The Falcons last three games are all winnable, at the Jets, Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. It?s this week?s game at the Georgia Dome vs. the Saints that might be the determining factor. The Giants still have a lot of work to do and division games against the Eagles, at the Redskins and at Minnesota make this a real challenge. After this past week, the Giants (+2000) and Atlanta (+5000) odds have been adjusted significantly.

If Green Bay (+2000) fails to meet expectations, the loss at than 0-7 Tampa Bay will haunt them. The Packers are the only NFC team in the playoff hunt that has to play three of last four encounters on the road. They have the rival Bears in Chi-town on a short week and also have trips to Pittsburgh and Arizona. At least one win will be required to make the postseason.

Philadelphia (+1000) theoretically has the most challenging remaining schedule with all four opponents still alive the postseason. Included are division excursions to the Giants and Dallas, with San Francisco and Denver in the City of Brotherly Love.

In the AFC, part of equation is virtually complete. The Indianapolis Colts have already started talk of resting players to get them healthy for the postseason. This is common practice for the Colts, who play three of the last four contests at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is -140 wager to represent their conference, yet how often has a team been on cruise control in the latter part of the season and faltered before Super Bowl. Only once have the Colts won division and had a bye week and even advanced to AFC title tilt, which they lost in 2004.

The next closest contenders on this side of the bracket appear to be Cincinnati (+500) and San Diego (+350). These two clubs are in contention for the second seed and bye and their week 15 matchup at Qualcomm Stadium just might be the deciding factor. Before then the Bengals have to navigate a tough trip the land of 10,000 frozen lakes and go up against the team in purple. If Cincy lost at Minnesota but wins at San Diego, they might be fine with last two games vs. Kansas City and at the Jets. The offense needs to pick up scoring, as they have totaled more than 20 points just twice in last eight affairs.

The Chargers have been playing tremendous football and will have to keep playing the same with the rest of their schedule. This week it?s a dandy at Dallas, followed by the aforementioned Bengals bout. That is followed by adventure to Tennessee, who is not going quietly and the Bolts finish at home against Washington, who is playing everybody tough.

It started last year, but this is not the same New England team that 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl in 2007. This team has several defensive holes and the front office might looks to have erred in trading Richard Seymour, whose presents likely would have covered up secondary flaws. The Patriots are +700, however that seems based on reputation more than current status. Nonetheless, they should close the season 4-0 with their schedule.

Denver should do no worse than the top wild card and still is in contention for AFC West crown. Expect them to win last two home games against Oakland and Kansas City. Their ultimate destination will be determined by how they perform at Indianapolis this week and in two weeks at Philadelphia. The Broncos are the second longest shot to win the AFC of contenders at +2000.

The team the oddsmakers or fans don?t like is Jacksonville and for good reason. The Jaguars (+5000) average 18.7 points per game and surrender 22.7, yet 7-5 record has them in the hunt for extra playing time. The Washington Redskins at 3-9 have a better score differential (-38 vs. -48). The Jags will have to navigate thru Miami and Indy at home and finish at New England and at Cleveland to help decide their fate.

Baltimore has the scheduling edge over Pittsburgh for wild card berth, but chances are the week 16 meeting between these physical rivals at Heinz Field will determine each ones fate. The Ravens have three pushovers in Chicago, Detroit and Oakland, with the first two at home and latter against Raiders team who will probably have bags packed for the season BEFORE the game.

The Steelers win at Cleveland, but have curious matchups with the Packers at home and at Miami to close 16-game slate. Despite this, the Steelers as defending Super Bowl champions are +1200 compared to Baltimore +1500.

It?s possible a team not mentioned here could finish the season 4-0 and one or more of these other teams could falter; however there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.
 
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