NBA TUE 120809 early thoughts - value hunting

[Slicer]

On a side note, and I am not tracking these this year cause I had a falling out with Accuscore, but they have the NJ/Bulls at 185

Other totals by accuscore for tonight:

NO/Sac 207
Den/Char 194.5
Pho/Dal 217.5
Mil/Bos 190
Min/Tor 212.2
Cle/Memp 190.6
Orl/LAC 189.5

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

Been really busy the last few days, but have been capping these games last few hours. Will lock in a couple shortly.

Leans

Bulls Under
Bobs +3.5
Kings +8.5 and over
Bucks +12
Mavs -4
Magic over 191.5


Be back in a few kurby

 

[Slicer]

I got 192, so locked in the Bulls game @ 1u + my NCAA game for 1 unit.

BOLTA

 

[CoFred]

Hey Ax

When you place a little money on a play before you lock it in for a full unit, how much are we usually talking? Like an action play?

 

[BillyBatts]

leans on these:
Nets/Bulls Under 192
Magic/Clippers Under 191.5

Locked in Kings/Hornets Under 211 already


any thoughts on Magic/Clippers?[/QUOTE]


I initially liked the over at 1st look, but after researching I think you are on the right side of the number. It dropped from 194, and if you look at a similar type game vs Hou a week ago, that number went off at 193 and went under. Rockets and Magic score almost identical amount of points, but the Magic give up alot less. Just from looking all the unders of Clips home games, it almost got me to change my lean. BOL if you decide to go with it.

Think I'm gonna tail Slice on his college game, and really want to bet against my Illini tonight. Vandy has all 5 starters back plus a freshamn who lead all H.S in scoring last year.

Locked in this one a minute ago
Bulls Under 192


Looking at the Celts over now as a possible 2nd
NBA play tonight. BOLTA :toast:

:director: Adding
Bucks +12
Really like the over 193 also. The Bucks have given up 100+ in 7 outta thier last 8, and Celts Avg 102 at home. That being said, I would put the Celts toal tonight at 105, and if you went by the spread, that would put the Bucks at 93, which is almost right on the avg they score on the road and the Celts allow at home. So I have the game capped at 198, but decided to go with the Bucks and the points, due to the Celts may be a little sluggish on thier 1st game back from a road trip.


BOL tonight guys. :toast:

 

[axp59]

Hey Ax

When you place a little money on a play before you lock it in for a full unit, how much are we usually talking? Like an action play?

Not at all pal. When I buy the night before for partial unit, it's usually something manageable like 1/2U.

BOL buddy

 

[softballmaniac]

FWIW, one winning tout service released the over in the NJN/CHI game as a strong play.

I'll still take Ax's plays anyday over any service, just an explanation as to why the number moved back up.

Hey Bart, were you talking about T.C. from the FORUM??

 

[compita_luigi]

AX

AX

what about your homer? i think 12 is a LOT to give, coming of a nice road trip.. i think they just slow a little down here.. that doesn?t mean they will loose, but they will keep it close IMAO...

 

[JBrilman]

what about your homer? i think 12 is a LOT to give, coming of a nice road trip.. i think they just slow a little down here.. that doesn?t mean they will loose, but they will keep it close IMAO...

Value for Rent has a nice write up accross the street saying just that very thing...

leans (in no order)

NOH U211
CLE -7.5
ORL -7
ORL OVER 191.5

 

[barts185]

Hey Bart, were you talking about T.C. from the FORUM??

No.

 

[grindstone]

interesting early morning movement on NJ/CHI.

Pinny now asking for $$ on the O @ 192

Yes Sir AX that's exactly what I mean when it comes down to the sucker bet .They offer you + $$, therefore this should confirm our under tonight.Be back later to chat boys

 

[barts185]

Yes Sir AX that's exactly what I mean when it comes down to the sucker bet .They offer you + $$, therefore this should confirm our under tonight.Be back later to chat boys

Can you actually offer any long term confirmation that fading the side on which Pinny is giving plus money shows a profit.

I know several people who have tried to do things with Pinny lines (opening line, their lines vs. other books, their lines close to game times vs. other books). I don't know anyone who has actually made money doing this, although there were a couple of nice stretches.

 

[arabmoney]

is the play for the night under192 chic ago

 

[CoFred]

Ax, I'm assuming you haven't locked full 1U yet?

:0corn

 

[grindstone]

Can you actually offer any long term confirmation that fading the side on which Pinny is giving plus money shows a profit.

I know several people who have tried to do things with Pinny lines (opening line, their lines vs. other books, their lines close to game times vs. other books). I don't know anyone who has actually made money doing this, although there were a couple of nice stretches.

I don't have a long term brother, but I'm always watching what Pinny does.

 

[Macgruder23]

Someone forgot to tell these teams that they play defense just watched a 2min stretch with 7 layups

 

[grindstone]

Locked in on Minn / Toro under 211 ... I come up with 207 ... Toro doesn't play any defense but Minn will not break 100 and Toro just wants to pick up a win and get on a late night flight to Milw for tomorrows game ...

Looking at other games but need to take a mental break ... numbers are confusing today !!!

Great call Chump on the Minn/Tor under . Congrats Sir

:00hour

 

[grindstone]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY 11-7

Week 1 5-2
Week 2 4-3
Week 3 2-2

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: Evansville +14.5 @ Western Kentucky

WKU living on their name right now, 3-3 on the year with all 3 victories coming at home vs. Tulane by 14, CS Northridge by 1 and Wisc-Mil by 4. Total for the year 1-5 ATS.

Led by AJ Slaugter (6'3 guard, 16.5 ppg) the Hilltoppers run primarily a 1 guard, 4 F rotation, averaging 63 ppg, shooting under 30% from 3pt land.

The Evansville Aces come into the contest at 4-2 (1-1 Away) led by 6'5 guard Colt Ryan 14.7 ppg) The Aces run a 2 guard, 3 F rotation but have a deeper bench with 9 players averaging over 11 min per game. The Aces are averaging 73ppg and shooting 32.7% from 3 pt land and 72.5% from the charity stripe. While their strength of schedule is not on par with WKU they did play Butler to 4 points holding them to 28% from the field but the difference in that game was the FT line where Butler went 31-44 to Evansville's 15-20.

So advantage to Evansville on shooting %, 3 pt %, FT %, size advantage, deeper bench, rebounding and lack of name recognition +14.5 points.

And hopefully these refs won't moose me back to back nights :s5:

Great call Slice congrats Sir

Evansville + 14.5 $$$$$$

:00hour :00hour

 

[CoFred]

NJ/CHI sails over :sadwave:

Glad I laid off....really thought this was going to hit.