NBA WED 120909 early thoughts - value hunting

[Ools]

2 that look interesting to me:

Chic/Atl over 196 -- chic seems to have miffed our room in picking their under spots

Hou/Clev under 194

Taking a page from slicer with a NCAA play i like:

What does interest me on the west cost is SD ST -14 vs CS Ful. SD ST has taken care of business at home winning all 3 home games large 25, 23, and 41 point spreads. fullerton on 3rd straight road game (both loses) since Friday. SD ST is well coached by the old michigan guy fisher as well. Fullerton got some respect with the UCLA win (that we all now know was worth little), but never backed it up losing 2 of last 3 since vs mediocre competition...so the -14 doesnt scare me.

 

[Slicer]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: 12-7

Week 1 5-2
Week 2 4-3
Week 3 3-2

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: New Mexico -5 @ San Diego

The Lobos are on fire this year going 8-0 (5-0 home, 2-0 away, 1-0 Neutral) and 7-0-1 ATS on the season. Quality wins vs Cal, New Mex State 2x, Miami (OH), UC Riverside averaging 82.1 ppg, shooting over 45% FG, 36% 3pt and 70% FT.

Led by dynamic 6'7 guard Darington Hobson (18.1ppg), 6'6 forward Roman Martinez (15.6 ppg) and 6'5 guard Phillip McDonald the Lobos have size at every position and dangerous scoring.

The San Diego Toreros are led by Brandon Johnson 6'0 guard (15.6 ppg) who has been out the past 2 games due to disciplinary action, he is listed as questionable tonight, but I am capping the game as if he plays due to San Diego's recent performances and this being their 7th game in 13 days and 4th game in 7 days. The Toreros are coming off a horrible 67-39 loss to Fresno State after having losing to UC Riverside 55-58 just 2 days prior to that.

If Brandon Johnson plays, he will face a defense that outsizes him and pressures the ball constantly. The Lobos are a quality team and I will assume a public play tonight as the line has moved off my bet @ -4 overnight up to -5 at most books today. With Johnson the Lobos win by 10+, without him the Lobos win by 20+.

Althought I have the favored line, my record will go by the line that is currently posted so all my brothers can join in winning on this one @ -5.

NBA:

Accuscore report NBA Totals:

Last night 3-4 vs Closing Line, Avg Variance from predicted score vs acutal score: 15.45/game

Tonight:

Clev/Hou 190
GS/NJ 212.5
NO/MN 193
Det/Phi 178.1
Por/Ind 185.5
Tor/Mil 199.8
Ut/LAL 207.9
Chi/ATL 194.5
Sac/SA 200

Will give updated report around 4pm after injuries etc comes out.

Leaning Port/Ind Under 192 despite line rising from 190 open, without Granger and the past 2 games from each team falling under this number, plus Indiana coming off a 4 game west coast trip (although they have 3 days rest), Portland on 2nd game in 3 days with Cleveland on board will want to rest starters a little for that one.

 

[pfj]

Im looking at hou +2. I have a few reasons why and please someone talk me out of it if I am off my rocker. lol Cavs had a tough loss last night that went to OT...now traveling to houston to play the rockets. I think from top to bottom cleveland is the better team but not in this situation. Houston is 8-2 ats as an underdog this season and cleveland is 3-4 ats on back to back games although cleveland is 7-0 ats against teams with a winning record and 4-1 after upset loss as a favorite. Someone throw me a bone. lol bol everyone :toast:

 

[frogster]

Good stuff Slicer, nice Gem yesterday and I like your Gem today. What day of the week do you start your Gem of the day, Sunday or Monday? GL.

 

[easterntimezone]

Im looking at hou +2. I have a few reasons why and please someone talk me out of it if I am off my rocker. lol Cavs had a tough loss last night that went to OT...now traveling to houston to play the rockets. I think from top to bottom cleveland is the better team but not in this situation. Houston is 8-2 ats as an underdog this season and cleveland is 3-4 ats on back to back games although cleveland is 7-0 ats against teams with a winning record and 4-1 after upset loss as a favorite. Someone throw me a bone. lol bol everyone :toast:

It's which team imposes its will as in every contest; Cavs are stagnant w/o the presence of LeBron whereas the Rockets play as a team - does Cleveland want to run up and down given the preferred faster tempo of Houston? Although undersized, Rockets have better points in both Brooks and Lowry - Battier likely will be assigned the unenviable job of covering James; Scola and Landry do all of the dirty work inside abetted by Hayes and Budinger keeps defenses honest w/ his shot and slashing ability. The Cavaliers (especially away from the so-called "Q")? James, James, James...

Natural INITIAL inclination would be to side w/ Cleveland; though reluctant to touch this game, would lean towards Houston if pressed. Houston more often than not will exert an honest effort; does Cleveland?

 

[pfj]

It's which team imposes its will as in every contest; Cavs are stagnant w/o the presence of LeBron whereas the Rockets play as a team - does Cleveland want to run up and down given the preferred faster tempo of Houston? Although undersized, Rockets have better points in both Brooks and Lowry - Battier likely will be assigned the unenviable job of covering James; Scola and Landry do all of the dirty work inside abetted by Hayes and Budinger keeps defenses honest w/ his shot and slashing ability. The Cavaliers (especially away from the so-called "Q")? James, James, James...

Natural inclination would be to side w/ Cleveland; though reluctant to touch this game, would lean towards Houston if pressed.

thanks for your insight. usually i don't look too deep into what public is on but right now public is all over cleveland which is what makes me want to take houston even more. 99% ml cleve and 89% spread! crazy. thanks again eastern will lookin into this one a bit more

 

[axp59]

No totals for me today.

Got 3 sides for action

[712] MINNESOTA +3
[715] SACRAMENTO +12?
[717] UTAH +10?

BOL

 

[Slicer]

Good stuff Slicer, nice Gem yesterday and I like your Gem today. What day of the week do you start your Gem of the day, Sunday or Monday? GL.

Friday's actually, just started it when I made my first play so not the traditional week.

 

[JBrilman]

I SAW THIS ACROSS THE STREET POSTED BY MR BATOR

I think it's worthwhile to use trends with relatively few samples if the trends also reveal large pointspread margins. For example, the Lakers have gone under thirteen times in a row at the Staples Center when their opponent was seeking revenge for a loss in which Kobe had torched them for 30 points or more. The last time this situation came up was on Sunday, November 22nd when Oklahoma City came to town. Just 19 days earlier, Kobe had scored 31 points against the Thunder in a 101-98 overtime win. The rematch at Staples had a posted total of 200 and the game stayed under easily, 101-85. What makes that trend worth paying attention to is that those 13 unders have covered by an average of 12 points per game. I've won a few times using this trend and not even Sasha Vujacic or Jordan Farmar can come close to screwing it up in garbage time by jacking up quick jumpshots and not getting back on defense.

If anyone cares to see this trend again put to the test, you can do so tomorrow night when the Utah Jazz come calling to Staples. Kobe scored 31 points against Utah in Game 5 of last season's first round series as the Lakers waved goodbye to the Jazz, 4 games to 1.

 

[BillyBatts]

Lean

Lean

One game I'm looking to really unload on....

Raps-Bucks OVER 205:box2:

Both teams on a back to back, and I know in the 2nd game of a back to back, the Raps have ZERO interst on playing defense. Can someone please query these 2 teams on a 2nd game of a back to back? Thanks in advance. :toast:


I also like the 76ers to break thier losing streak tonight at home, giving a low number against the Stones at 3 or 3.5

 

[axp59]

Can someone please query these 2 teams on a 2nd game of a back to back? Thanks in advance. :toast:

Nothing to note on totals trends for teams B2B (50/50)

HOWEVER: MIL 4-0 ATS B2B and TOR 1-4 ATS B2B

Hope that helps

 

[ChumpChange]

My only play so far today ... SA / SAC under 203 ... SA sets the pace at home ... I don't see this game going over 200.

Good Luck

 

[Ools]

From Slicer: NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: New Mexico -5 @ San Diego


Agree with you on this one too -- that is how i started a post across street...someone liked SD tonight and it scared the beejeebees out of me the way they played....I thought they liked the wrong team in town as I like SD ST.

Keep them comin!!

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Leans/Waiting

Hornets @ Wolves O194
edit: adding Jazz @ Lakers U206.5

Any opinions on

Warriors @ Nets U218.5

???

 

[axp59]

Peteyboy,

thank you for turning me on to twitter. please get my email from jack or the admins here. send me an email and i'm going to return the favor. many thanks.

Ax

 

[frogster]

I SAW THIS ACROSS THE STREET POSTED BY MR BATOR

I think it's worthwhile to use trends with relatively few samples if the trends also reveal large pointspread margins. For example, the Lakers have gone under thirteen times in a row at the Staples Center when their opponent was seeking revenge for a loss in which Kobe had torched them for 30 points or more. The last time this situation came up was on Sunday, November 22nd when Oklahoma City came to town. Just 19 days earlier, Kobe had scored 31 points against the Thunder in a 101-98 overtime win. The rematch at Staples had a posted total of 200 and the game stayed under easily, 101-85. What makes that trend worth paying attention to is that those 13 unders have covered by an average of 12 points per game. I've won a few times using this trend and not even Sasha Vujacic or Jordan Farmar can come close to screwing it up in garbage time by jacking up quick jumpshots and not getting back on defense.

If anyone cares to see this trend again put to the test, you can do so tomorrow night when the Utah Jazz come calling to Staples. Kobe scored 31 points against Utah in Game 5 of last season's first round series as the Lakers waved goodbye to the Jazz, 4 games to 1.

Hi JBrilman, I think that I am assuming correctly when I say that this was posted across the street yesterday 12-9 and you are refering to play on the game today 12-10?

 

[JBrilman]

Hi JBrilman, I think that I am assuming correctly when I say that this was posted across the street yesterday 12-9 and you are refering to play on the game today 12-10?

posted yesterday (12/8) about today's (12/9) Laker game

 

[JCWhy]

locked in: Jazz/Lakers U206

strong lean: Cavs/Rockets O194

also had leans on these games: Blazers/Pacers U193 & Raptors/Bucks O206


any thoughts on the Cavs/Rockets?

 

[BillyBatts]

Play

Play

Locked this in about an hour ago. Glad I did, still going up. :clap:


Raps-Bucks OVER 205.5

Playing this one large. (0-1 YTD on large plays)

Maybe have one other play to add.

Best of luck tonight fellas :toast:

Some reasons for my plays.
Here are the Raps points allowed in 4 out of thier last 5, on the 2nd nite of a B2B. All of these are on the road as well, just like tonight
129, 104, 116, and 146 :scared

Also some trends.
Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-1-1 in Bucks last 6 Wednesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games as a favorite.

Over is 15-5-1 in Raptors last 21 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 29-13-1 in Raptors last 43 games following a ATS loss

 

[BillyBatts]

locked in: Jazz/Lakers U206

strong lean: Cavs/Rockets O194

also had leans on these games: Blazers/Pacers U193 & Raptors/Bucks O206


any thoughts on the Cavs/Rockets?

I'm likin the over there too. Cavs on 2nd of a B2B seem to give up a little more on defense. Plus Houston is well rested and I think will look to run
Over is 9-1-2 in Cavaliers last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 21-3-2 in Cavaliers last 26 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.