Wk. 14. CLEARANCE SALE!

MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
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Sexlexia...
Everything must go!!! (under).

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Here at the NFL we are over-stocked with points this week...
...we've decided give them away people, so take all the points you can get your hands on. :00hour

This is [likely!] for one week only, so EVERYTHING MUST GO!! (under). :142smilie

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland under 36.5

Forget Ward being out, forget the Browns offense being non-existant...forget the history which says road 7+ favs off a SU loss as home 10+ favs are a perfect 0-11...
...all we need to know is there are 25+ mph winds and a blizzard forecast. unnddeerrr

Miami @ Jax under 44 (1.95)

Anyone want some points from 2 broken offenses that just don't add up? They're yours.
Miami av. just 17.5 on the road...that's including the 17 freebies @ the Jets...
...Jags haven't topped 24 in their last 8, even v. terrible D's of KC and SL...
...they will likely hit a big pass play or 2 (everyone does v. Miami), but 24-20 looks the absolute max to me...

NE v. Carolina under 44 (1.95)

Points from a back-up QB and 2 solid pass D's?? Take them, they're yours!! For FREE!!
NE allowing just 14.8 ppg v. anyone not named Brees or Manning...Panthers allowing a respectable 23 ppg on the road, and it's their run D that has been the problem...they boast the 6th best QB rating against (73.0).
Panthers will be happy to run, run, run and let Moore "manage" [:shrug: ] the game...tick, tick...

Denver @ Indi under 44 (2.00)

An under-rated defense and an uncharacteristicly high scoring effort last week combine to give us this little gem. :mj06:
Denver burnt me last week against a frighteningly bad KC D, but not this week against the 2nd best D for points allowed (16.8)...
...Denver themselves are 3rd...and they are 2 out of just 3 teams in the NFL who have allowed less TD's than FG's.
Denver will have some success on the ground, they gain 4.4 y/rush...but have only had 6 x 20+ and 1 x 40+ run...tick, tick, tock...

NYG v. Philli under 45.5

League: 0-13 under (Av. total 43.2...av. score 31.1) home (-3 to +3), total 38.5+ off a SU win as home (-3 to +3), if they held opp to <50 yards rushing. [NYG]

Philli have given up 24+ points just twice all season, inc. just 17 v. NYG in the first meeting...they scored 44 that day, but had 3 TD's of 40+ yards, which is unlikely again.
Giants still have the 6th best defensive numbers...and this looks a lot of points for what is a very important Div game...
...get yours today.

Dallas v. SD under 48.5 (2.00)

League: 7-25 under (Av. total 47.1...av. score 44.6) at home, total 44.5, off a 7+ ats loss as a Div road (-3 to +3).
(inc. NYG v. SD 2009)
0-5 under (Av. score 39.0) if they had 30+ TOP.


Looking for that something special, a little more original, for the man who has it all?...look no further than this...
Dallas have been very good defensively at home, giving up just 15.2 ppg...and their offense has really struggled v. anyone half decent D!...
...in 5 games v. top 20 (twenty! :eek: ) teams for points allowed, they have av'd a mere 13 ppg. (SD are 15th @ 20 ppg)...
...in the other 7 games they have scored 30.5 ppg!! :nono:
SD have scored big in their last 2 v. two very bad D's, this one will be tougher.
Could well be an open game, but at 48.5 I think there are still a few extra points if anyone is interested. :toast:

Good luck all :cool:
 
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MrChristo

The Zapper
Forum Member
Nov 11, 2001
4,414
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0
Sexlexia...
btw...[pre-Thursday]...50-53-1 (-8.45)

Forte under 56.5 rushing


Has gone more than this just 4 times all year...St. L, Cleveland, Det and at Seattle...Seattle being the oly half decent run D, and he went 21/66...Seahawks giving up 4.3 y/rush to GB's 3.6 (and 4th best overall run D)...
...25/55 yards in their first meeting. Pretty sure they give up on the run far earlier in this one.

Fitzpatrick OVER 200.5 passing


Ryan's been good to me so far! 2/2. He's well under 200 in 3 games...Houst (15th v. the pass), Caro (6th) and Jets (1st)...well over in 2 games... 246 v. Miami (25th) and 297 @ Jax (25th)...
...KC are 28th.
They did "hold" Orton to 180 last week due to giving up a thousand yards rushing, but Buffalo won't have that luxury.

Gerrard OVER 227.5 passing

Low number for Miami, who give up a league's worst 8.3 y/pass.
Only 2 games at home has he thrown for less than this; v. Jets and Buff...the 1st and 6th ranked pass D's...
...Miami have given up more than this on the road in 5 of 6...the 'exception' being 227 to Delhomme @ Carolina. Let's say 6 huh?

Charles OVER 69.5 rushing

Another nice little average's twist...4 games as the starting RB...56 yards v. Denver (7th best v. the run), 58 v. Pits (4th best)...but 93 v. SD (21st) and 103 @ Oak (27th).
Buffalo are dead last (32nd) in stopping the run.
They did have one good game, first game of the new defensive co-ordinator, @ Jax...but since then gave up 100+ yards to both Williams and Jones...
70 looks well within reach.

Johnson OVER 119.5 rushing

Big number, but again, well within reach. Since Young has taken over at QB, C.J. has gone for 128, 228, 135, 132, 151, 154...and 113/27 v. Indi last week...
...Colts allow 111 @ 4.2...SL give up 146 @ 4.6...
Rams' numbers have been skewed by playing some bad running teams on the road too...gave up 133 to Jones-Drew (6th best, 90 @ 4.6)...other than that have faced Portis early (16th, 61 @ 4.0), Forte (27th), Glenn Coffee, a Detroit committee...and gave up 117 to Julius Jones early @ Seattle.
Johnson is number 1 in the NFL in both yards and ypr.
Lots again.


Washington -41

Minni -6

13 pt. Teaser: Balt pk, Tenn pk, Dallas +10, Houston +7


Good Luck all. :cool:
 
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