Preview: Steelers (6-6) at Browns (1-11)

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Preview: Steelers (6-6) at Browns (1-11)
Date: December 10, 2009 8:20 PM EDT



The defending Super Bowl champs are in trouble. After last week?s galling 27-24 home loss to Oakland as a 14 1/2-point favorite, Pittsburgh (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) goes to the Dawg Pound tonight looking to end a four-game losing streak.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Pittsburgh as a nine-point favorite with a total of 38. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Steelers favored by 10 with the total reduced to 33. Gamblers can back the Browns to win outright for a plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Cleveland (1-11 SU, ATS) has more problems than its AFC North visitors, but at least they?ve hooked up their backers in their last three games. That?s right, Eric Mangin?s team has cashed tickets three consecutive times out, including last week?s 30-23 loss to San Diego as a 13 ?-point home underdog.

The Chargers got ahead of the number at 30-14 on a 22-yard field goal by Nate Kaeding with 4:16 remaining. But the Browns got the backdoor cover thanks to an eight-yard touchdown pass from Brady Quinn to Jerome Harrison with two minutes left. The Browns tacked on a field goal to make it a one-possession game with Phil Dawson?s 49-yard boot, but they would get no closer in their upset bid.



Quinn completed 25-of-45 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. The third-year quarterback out of Notre Dame is starting to get into a groove with a pair of promising rookie wide receivers, Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massoquoi.

Over the last three weeks, Quinn has produced seven TD passes without getting picked off. Robiskie had four receptions for 69 yards against the Bolts, while Massaquoi had five catches for 115 yards in a 38-37 loss at Detroit three weeks ago.

Back to the Steelers, who might be missing WR Hines Ward, who is ?questionable? with a hamstring injury. Ward is enjoying another stellar year with 72 receptions for 922 yards and six touchdowns. He and Ben Roethlisberger have combined to win two Super Bowls, but you have to question the current chemistry between the QB-WR combo.

A few years back, Big Ben publicly urged the front office to acquire a ?tall? WR for him to throw to, which came off as a shot at Ward. Then last week, Ward questioned Roethlisberger?s absence from the lineup in a loss at Baltimore when he was a late scratch due to lingering concussion symptoms.

In both instances, the QB and WR issued apologies, but is everything ?all good?? Whatever the case, there?s no doubt that Mike Tomlin?s team desperately needs a victory for morale and its playoff hopes.

Pittsburgh is one of four teams who are one game back of the Jags for the AFC?s last wild-card spot. Remember, the Steelers failed to make the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl in 2006. They are in this predicament because of their road struggles, limping to a 2-4 record both SU and ATS when leaving the friendly confines of Heinz Field.

Tomlin?s team has been a double-digit ?chalk? four times in 2009. The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in those situations. They are clearly missing play-making safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fourth straight game tonight.

The defense has given up fourth-quarter leads in each of the last three losses, including last week?s embarrassment against the Raiders. Bruce Gradkowski, the back-up QB for an offense ranked 31st in the NFL, found rookie WR Louis Murphy for a pair of touchdown passes in the final stanza.

But the Browns might be just what the doctor ordered for the Steelers, who beat them for the 12th straight time on Oct. 18. They won a 27-14 decision but Cleveland backers took the money as a 14-point underdog. Roethlisberger threw for 417 yards and a pair of TDs.

Cleveland ranks last in the NFL in total defense, giving up more than 400 yards per game. This unit is also missing its bets player, dominant run-stuffing nose tackle Shaun Rogers who is missing his second straight game after going on injured reserve. Veteran RB Jamal Lewis (concussion) is also on IR and DL C.J. Mosely joined them on Monday.

The ?over? has hit in three straight Pittsburgh games. For the season, the ?over? is 7-5 overall for the Steelers, 4-2 in their road games.

The ?under? is 7-5 overall for the Browns, but the ?over? is 3-2 in their home games.

The conditions are going to be a major factor tonight. According to weather.com, the low temperature will be 14 degrees with heavy wind and snow. Winds could be in the 25-35 mph range.

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.



--The ?over? is 6-2-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Browns and Steelers.

--For what it?s worth (if anything), the ?over? is 4-0 in Pittsburgh?s four games as a double-digit favorite this year.

--Houston RB Steve Slaton (thumb, shoulder) has been placed on IR and will miss the remainder of the season.

--Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis. He has sustained two concussions this season and has missed three straight games. The Eagles are one-point underdogs in the Meadowlands against the Giants on Sunday night. Westbrook hasn?t been ruled out against the G-Men, but bettors should consider him ?doubtful? until further notice.

--Jets head coach Rex Ryan has decided to start Kellen Clemens at quarterback in Sunday?s game at Tampa Bay. Mark Sanchez was ruled ?out? Wednesday after spraining his knee in last Thursday?s win vs. Buffalo (in Toronto).

--The other rookie QB starter, Detroit?s Matthew Stafford, will also rest his sore shoulder against the Ravens. Veteran QB Daunte Culpepper will get the starting nod for the Lions, who are 13 ?-point road favorites.
 

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Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

PITTSBURGH (6-6) vs CLEVELAND (1-11)

Game Time: 8:20 p.m. EDT Thursday, December 10

Stadium: Cleveland Browns Stadium Surface: grass






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
PITTSBURGH HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 4 - 2 2 - 4 6 - 6 2 - 4 2 - 4 4 - 8 3 - 3 4 - 2 7 - 5
Last 5 games 0 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 4 0 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2
YTD vs. Div. 1 - 1 0 - 2 1 - 3 0 - 2 1 - 1 1 - 3 1 - 1 2 - 0 3 - 1
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
CLEVELAND HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 0 - 5 1 - 6 1 - 11 2 - 3 4 - 3 6 - 6 3 - 2 2 - 5 5 - 7
Last 5 games 0 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 5 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2 1 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 3
YTD vs. Div. 0 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 5 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2 1 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 3
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
PITTSBURGH 1 - 4 1 - 0 2 - 3 0 - 1 2 - 4 0 - 0 2 - 4 0 - 0
CLEVELAND 0 - 0 4 - 3 2 - 3 2 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 3 2 - 3 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

PITTSBURGH
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/10/09 Thu TEN 13 - 10 W -5.5 -6.5 L -3.5 37.0 36.0 U -13.0 G
09/20/09 Sun @CHI 14 - 17 L -1.5 -3 L -6 39.5 38.0 U -7.0 G
09/27/09 Sun @CIN 20 - 23 L -4.5 -3.5 L -6.5 40.0 37.0 O + 6.0 G
10/04/09 Sun SD 38 - 28 W -4 -5.5 W +4.5 42.0 43.5 O +22.5 G
10/11/09 Sun @DET 28 - 20 W -10 -11 L -3 43.0 44.0 O + 4.0 T
10/18/09 Sun CLE 27 - 14 W -13.5 -14 L -1 38.5 37.5 O + 3.5 G
10/25/09 Sun MIN 27 - 17 W -3.5 -6 W +4 44.5 46.0 U -2.0 G
11/09/09 Mon @DEN 28 - 10 W +0 -3 W +15 38.5 41.5 U -3.5 G
11/15/09 Sun CIN 12 - 18 L -6.5 -7 L -13 41.0 41.5 U -11.5 G
11/22/09 Sun @KC 24 - 27 L -9.5 -11 L -14 39.5 40.0 O +11.0 G
11/29/09 Sun @BAL 17 - 20 L +7 +7.5 W +4.5 35.5 34.0 O + 3.0 G
12/06/09 Sun OAK 24 - 27 L -14 -15 L -18 37.0 37.0 O +14.0 G


CLEVELAND
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun MIN 20 - 34 L +2 +4 L -10 40.5 40.0 O +14.0 G
09/20/09 Sun @DEN 6 - 27 L +3.5 +3 L -18 41.5 38.5 U -5.5 G
09/27/09 Sun @BAL 3 - 34 L +13.5 +13.5 L -17.5 39.5 38.5 U -1.5 G
10/04/09 Sun CIN 20 - 23 L +5.5 +6.5 W +3.5 40.0 38.0 O + 5.0 G
10/11/09 Sun @BUF 6 - 3 W +5.5 +6 W +9 41.0 41.5 U -32.5 T
10/18/09 Sun @PIT 14 - 27 L +13.5 +14 W +1 38.5 37.5 O + 3.5 G
10/25/09 Sun GB 3 - 31 L +7 +9 L -19 41.0 41.5 U -7.5 G
11/01/09 Sun @CHI 6 - 30 L +12 +11.5 L -12.5 39.5 40.0 U -4.0 G
11/16/09 Mon BAL 0 - 16 L +10.5 +11 L -5 38.5 39.5 U -23.5 G
11/22/09 Sun @DET 37 - 38 L +3.5 +3 W +2 42.5 38.0 O +37.0 T
11/29/09 Sun @CIN 7 - 16 L +14 +13 W +4 38.5 39.0 U -16.0 G
12/06/09 Sun SD 23 - 30 L +11 +13.5 W +6.5 43.0 42.5 O +10.5 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
11/13/05 Sun CLE 21 PIT 34 -8.0 -7.5 PIT +5.5 34.0 34.0 O +-21 G
12/24/05 Sat PIT 41 CLE 0 +7 +7 CLE --34 34.0 32.5 O +-8.5 G
11/19/06 Sun PIT 24 CLE 20 +3 +4.5 CLE +0.5 38.5 37.0 O +-7 G
12/07/06 Thu CLE 7 PIT 27 -9.5 -7.0 PIT +13 37.0 33.0 O +-1 G
09/09/07 Sun PIT 34 CLE 7 +3 +6 CLE --21 36.0 36.0 O +-5 G
11/11/07 Sun CLE 28 PIT 31 -9.5 -10.0 PIT --7 48.0 47.0 O +-12 G
09/14/08 Sun PIT 10 CLE 6 +4.5 +6.5 CLE +2.5 46.0 43.0 U -27 G
12/28/08 Sun CLE 0 PIT 31 -10.0 -11.0 PIT +20 33.0 33.5 U -2.5 G
10/18/09 Sun CLE 14 PIT 27 -13.5 -14.0 PIT --1 38.5 37.5 O +-3.5 G





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
PIT (off) 21.8 20 28 122 4.4 33 22 0.7 247 7.5 369 1.2 0.5 .00
CLE (def) 26.8 20 35 161 4.6 27 17 0.6 218 8.1 379 0.2 0.2 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
PIT (def) 19.5 17 21 80 3.8 36 22 0.6 220 6.1 300 0.7 0.5 .00
CLE (off) 13.2 17 24 99 4.1 38 19 0.5 168 4.4 267 1.0 0.8 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
PIT (off) 22.7 21 27 117 4.3 33 22 0.7 258 7.8 375 1.0 0.8 1.00
CLE (def) 25.8 22 34 155 4.6 31 19 0.6 246 7.9 401 0.5 0.7 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
PIT (def) 19.3 17 22 78 3.5 36 21 0.6 220 6.1 298 0.7 0.7 .33
CLE (off) 12.1 14 26 99 3.8 32 16 0.5 144 4.5 243 1.3 0.9 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

PITTSBURGH (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 4.0 8.0 12 5.2 4.7 0.0 9.9
POINTS ALLOWED 3.8 4.0 7.8 3.8 6.8 1.0 11.6



CLEVELAND (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 2.0 4.0 6 1.4 5.8 0.0 7.2
POINTS ALLOWED 4.0 7.6 11.6 9.4 5.2 0.6 15.2



PITTSBURGH (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.9 8.3 12.2 4.0 6.3 0.3 10.6
POINTS ALLOWED 2.7 4.0 6.7 3.8 8.3 0.5 12.6



CLEVELAND (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.3 2.8 6.1 2.4 3.6 0.0 6
POINTS ALLOWED 4.7 8.5 13.2 7.0 5.3 0.3 12.6



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
PITTSBURGH 59 -9.5
CLEVELAND 46 0.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 37.5 3 over
 

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Stumbling Steelers road favorites in Dawg Pound

Stumbling Steelers road favorites in Dawg Pound

Stumbling Steelers road favorites in Dawg Pound

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to ?unleash hell in December? after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out ?Hell ain?t a bad place to be? in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldn?t be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed can?t go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnovers?four by each team?but that?s about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburgh?s loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesn?t seem likely, though it?s entirely possible they?ll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasn?t thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

Sportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last week?s 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 34. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursday?s this season.

Power Line ? Pittsburgh by 10
Consensus ? Pittsburgh covers
 

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Head-to-Head Series History

Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.

All games in this series since 1992
PITTSBURGH is 17-13 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1992
PITTSBURGH is 26-5 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992
16 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons





All games played at CLEVELAND since 1992
CLEVELAND is 7-6 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH since 1992
PITTSBURGH is 11-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

Games played at CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.

As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring PITTSBURGH in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in PITTSBURGH games 50.7% of the time since 1992. (111-108)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in PITTSBURGH games 47.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-21)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CLEVELAND games 48.6% of the time since 1992. (85-90)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CLEVELAND games 45.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (16-19)
No Edge.

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in PITTSBURGH games 52.5% of the time since 1992. (134-121)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in PITTSBURGH games 46.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-23)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CLEVELAND games 45.5% of the time since 1992. (86-103)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CLEVELAND games 52.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-18)
No Edge.


Key Player Injuries

PITTSBURGH
[FB] 09/29/2009 - Frank Summers IR ( Back )
[DE] 10/18/2009 - Aaron Smith IR ( Shoulder )
12/06/2009 - Troy Polamalu doubtful Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Knee )
[QB] 12/08/2009 - Charlie Batch is upgraded to expected to be available Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Wrist )
[DE] 12/07/2009 - Travis Kirschke is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Calf )
[WR] 12/07/2009 - Hines Ward is downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Hamstring )
[CB] 12/09/2009 - William Gay probable Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Concussion )
[RB] 12/07/2009 - Rashard Mendenhall injured last game, probable Thursday vs. Cleveland ( Ankle )
CLEVELAND
[WR] 08/20/2009 - Donte Stallworth out for season ( Suspension )
[OG] 09/01/2009 - Ryan Tucker IR ( Knee )
[OG] 09/01/2009 - Fred Weary IR ( Leg )
[RB] 10/03/2009 - James Davis IR ( Shoulder )
[LB] 10/20/2009 - D'Qwell Jackson IR ( Pectoral )
[LB] 11/03/2009 - Eric Barton IR ( Neck )
[TE] 11/19/2009 - Steve Heiden IR ( Ankle )
[P] 11/19/2009 - Dave Zastudil IR ( Knee )
[DE] 12/08/2009 - Kenyon Coleman is downgraded to expected to miss Thursday vs. Pittsburgh ( Knee )
[DT] 11/30/2009 - Shaun Rogers IR ( Ankle )
[FS] 12/03/2009 - Brodney Pool IR ( Concussion )
[RB] 12/02/2009 - Jamal Lewis IR ( Head )
[TE] 09/06/2009 - Evan Moore IR ( Undisclosed )
[DE] 12/07/2009 - C.J. Mosley IR ( Leg )
[CB] 12/08/2009 - Eric Wright doubtful Thursday vs. Pittsburgh ( Hamstring )
 
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