Jaguars-Colts breakdown

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AT STAKE

The Jaguars need to win their last three games to guarantee a wild-card berth. A loss tonight doesn't eliminate the Jaguars, but they would no longer control their own destiny in a crowded AFC race. The Colts, at 13-0, are chasing history. They've already clinched the AFC South crown and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The question is how much they'll play their key players in the final three regular-season games.

KEY MATCHUP

DE Dwight Freeney vs. OT Eugene Monroe: It's unclear if Freeney plays tonight, but if he does, Monroe needs a better showing than in the first meeting. Although Monroe allowed just one sack when the teams met in September, Freeney provided relentless pressure on David Garrard, which disrupted Jacksonville's passing game. The Jaguars will likely keep a tight end on Monroe's side or send a running back over to chip on Freeney.


INJURY REPORT

Colts: RB Donald Brown (chest), DB Aaron Francisco (ankle), WR Anthony Gonzalez (knee), DB Jerraud Powers (hamstring), K Adam Vinatieri (knee) are out. DT Eric Foster (back), DE Dwight Freeney (abdomen), OT Charlie Johnson (foot), DE Robert Mathis (quad) are questionable. RB Joseph Addai (knee), DB Antoine Bethea (foot), LB Gary Brackett (foot), DE Raheem Brock (back), DB Melvin Bullitt (shoulder), DT Keyunta Dawson (knee), G Kyle DeVan (shin), OT Ryan Diem (hamstring), WR Pierre Garcon (knee), B Kelvin Hayden (knee), DB Tim Jennings (ankle), DB Jacob Lacey (biceps), QB Peyton Manning (glute), OT Dan Muir (hamstring), OG Jamey Richard (shoulder), TE Tom Santi (hand), LB Clint Session (calf), RB Chad Simpson (back), OT Tony Ugoh (hip) and WR Reggie Wayne (foot) are probable.

Jaguars: FB Greg Jones (ankle) is out. LB Clint Ingram (shoulder) is doubtful. DB Rashean Mathis (groin) is questionable. CB Derek Cox (ankle), G Kynan Forney (back), DT John Henderson (shoulder), RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee), TE Zach Miller (shoulder), WR Mike Sims-Walker (calf), LB Daryl Smith (thigh), DE Julius Williams (knee) are probable.

 

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Jaguars look forward to break after quick turnaround


Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio sees an advantage to his team playing twice in five days, because after tonight's game against Indianapolis, the club will have 10 days before it meets New England.

The key, he said, is to make it through tonight without a lot of injuries.

"Having played in Dallas, where we played on Thanksgiving every year, I always felt that it was an advantage," Del Rio said. "You had to fight like crazy to get to that Thursday. Once you got through that game, that weekend was like a mini bye [week] late in the year. It was a great opportunity to do a little extra studying, get a little extra time off and treat it like a mini bye. You can get a little bounce from that."

Etc.

Mike Sims-Walker is 42 yards from becoming the third receiver in team history to reach 1,000 receiving yards in a season. He needs two catches tonight to join Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell and Matt Jones as the only receivers in team history to catch at least 55 passes in a season. ... The Jaguars haven't lost two in a row since the first two games of the season. ... The current combined record of Jacksonville's opponents is 101-105 (.490 winning percentage).

 

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Jaguars expect John Henderson and Mike Sims-Walker to play against Colts

Del Rio: Sims-Walker will play, and Mathis is looking better.



Whether or not the unbeaten Colts plays some of their key players tonight, the Jaguars expect to be at mostly full strength.

Defensive tackle John Henderson and wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker are listed as probable on the team's latest injury report. Starting cornerback Rashean Mathis is listed as questionable, but there's a good chance he could play, according to Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio.

"The good news is we'll have Big John [Henderson] and Mike [Sims-Walker] back, and with Rashean, it's tracking in a positive direction. I was encouraged by what I saw today out of Rashean," Del Rio said. "Hopefully, we'll get everybody."

Everybody won't include fullback Greg Jones (ankle), who is out, and linebacker Clint Ingram (shoulder), who is listed as doubtful.

Jones could miss the rest of the season. Before making a determination, the team wanted him to seek a second opinion on his injured ankle.

Ingram sustained his shoulder injury in last Sunday's game against Miami, and it's likely that rookie Russell Allen will replace him in the lineup. In his only start against Seattle in October, Allen tied Brian Iwuh for the team lead in tackles (12). Last week, Allen filled in for Ingram and contributed three stops.

Henderson was inactive for last week's game after starting the previous 12. Sims-Walker played last week with a calf strain, but he was listed as doubtful. He caught one pass for 6 yards.

Mathis, who hadn't played since sustaining a severe groin injury on Nov. 15, said after last Sunday's game that he expected to play against the Colts. He's tied with rookie cornerback Derek Cox for the team lead with three interceptions despite missing the past four games.

"There's a good chance [I'll play against the Colts]," Mathis said Tuesday.

"I felt good today. I felt pleased with how I moved around [at practice]. I'm at around 90-something percent. But nobody is ever 100 percent."

 

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Who plays? How much? We'll find out together

The Indianapolis Colts have said they will play all their "healthy" players tonight at Jacksonville as they tepidly pursue the perfect season.

The question, then, is how do you define "healthy" under these circumstances?


If it's Week 6 and the game is meaningful, "healthy" means that you still have three of your four limbs intact. If it's Week 15 and you've clinched everything including the Premier League, "healthy" may mean you haven't been bruised at any point in the past three weeks.

Here's where the Colts ultimately come down on the whole rest-'em-or-play-'em debate:

We'll see.

This week, they say they are approaching the Jaguars as they would any other week.

Next week? No clue yet.

The final week? No idea.

They're being coy, playing it close to the vest, refusing to reveal their plans, and that's probably the smartest approach they could take. Yes, I would love to have heard coach Jim Caldwell say, "OK, world, we're going for the perfect season." But short of that pronouncement -- and you weren't expecting anything like that from him, were you? -- this is the best way to proceed.

Quarterback Peyton Manning made the point after the beating the Broncos on Sunday: The Colts are under no obligation to anybody to telegraph their plans.

This is going to be a game-by-game proposition. This is going to be a half-by-half proposition. Shoot, it may end up being a possession-by-possession proposition.

Caldwell doesn't like to deal in hypotheticals -- I deduced this after he said Tuesday, "I don't like to deal in hypotheticals" -- but my sense is, the team's approach will be based, in part, on whether they win tonight.

Win, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the starters play significant time against the Jets, the hope being they can build a lead and hang on. Lose tonight, and everybody with a paper cut gets put on the injured list.

Beat Jacksonville and New York, and, well, everything changes. Can you imagine Caldwell telling Manning and Reggie Wayne and the rest, "Yeah, I know we're one game away from 16-0, but I think we're going to go with Curtis Painter and Mike Hart"?


Me, neither.

Like virtually every player, center Jeff Saturday wants to play it out. Wouldn't you be disappointed if anybody said otherwise?


"Absolutely," he said Tuesday. "There's no turning back, man. We might as well go for this thing and keep playing. And I think it'll help us in the future. We might face these guys (the Jaguars) again in a few weeks."

He was asked if any of the veterans have politicked with Caldwell or team president Bill Polian.

"Not from me; I can't tell you about anybody else," he said. "But I've made it clear I want to play. Ultimately, it's Caldwell's call and I trust what he does. But so far, he's made no mention of pulling in the reins. He's talked about staying in rhythm and playing to win."

This really doesn't have to be a complete play-'em-or-sit-'em duality. Maybe Caldwell plays them three quarters tonight. Maybe he plays them a half next week, then brings them back for the fourth quarter if the game is in the balance. Maybe he goes all-out against Buffalo or sits nearly everybody, depending on whether they're 15-0 or, say, 14-1.

I would just hate to see the Colts become stubborn in their stated desire to follow the Tony Dungy blueprint, which, if I'm remembering correctly, didn't work so well. I would hate to see Polian get dug in on this issue, although we all know Polian was born dug in.

Ultimately, the Colts want to be playing their best football in late December, and right now, in mid-December, they're not quite there. Granted, at 13-0, there are not a lot of flaws, and they just beat two good teams by double-digit margins, but there's unquestionably room for improvement.

Another reason to keep the pedal to the metal.

"Right now, I would say we've been a bit inconsistent except in the won-loss column," Caldwell said. "Every week we've found ways to win, but I wouldn't say we're operating on all cylinders. And that's a good thing. It gives us a lot of things to work on."

They still need to work on their offensive consistency. They still need to find a way to reincorporate receiver Anthony Gonzalez into the offense, assuming he's healthy enough to return. They still need to decide whether Adam Vinatieri will be healthy enough to kick in the playoffs.

At last check, the Colts have said they are not "shutting it down."

Although that depends on what your definition of "shutting it down" is.

 

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How they match up





Colts' front seven vs. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Jones-Drew is the fulcrum of the Jacksonville offense. He is the NFL's No. 5 rusher with 1,136 yards, has 44 catches and is the principal in the Jaguars' frequent screens and draws. The Colts "contained" him on 21 rushes for 97 yards and five catches for 26 yards when the teams met in the season opener, enabling them to attack QB David Garrard , who passed for only 122 yards. The Colts' tackle rotation has improved as the season has progressed and is the key to the matchup.




Colts' offensive line vs. Jaguars' defensive line

Jacksonville has no dynamic playmakers in its defensive line and its best lineman, DT John Henderson, missed the Miami game last Sunday with a shoulder injury. Second-year DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves have three sacks between them and the Jaguars' 14 sacks are five fewer than any other team in the league. If Colts QB Peyton Manning has time, the NFL's top-ranked passing game could make it difficult for Jacksonville to keep up. Garrard has thrown 10 TD passes, barely one-third of Manning's total (29).

 

[IX_Bender]

Again, thanks for posting these.

Went to the INDY star and started to read a dup.