Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA

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Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA

Five contests on the NBA docket to start the week leading up to Christmas holiday. Utah and Orlando and Cleveland at Phoenix will generate the most buzz, with each having a twist that sets them apart. The other three conflicts all have unique systems worth considering on sides or totals. Numbers from Sportsbook.com.

Milwaukee at Indiana (-2, 202.5)

After a fast start (8-3) giving Bucks fans hope about the future, Milwaukee has lost 11 of 14. This sets up potential totals play, as road teams that have lost four or five of their last six contests and sporting a win percentage of 40-49 percent, look to be OVER play when the total is 200 to 209.5 and facing a team with win percentage of 25 to 40 percent. (16-3 L3Y)

Utah at Orlando (-8, 204)

The Jazz have won two of three on their five-game road trip before Christmas. Orlando rebounded, literally, from a loss to Miami and bested Portland 92-83 as nine-point favorites. In that contest the Magic cleaned up on the glass with 64-43 edge and favorites that have a +3 or better rebounding edge on the season and off a game where they out-boarded the opposition by 15 or more, are 74-36 ATS in next contest since 2007.

Sacramento at Chicago (-4, 200.5)

The Bulls have been big disappointment this season with 10-15 record and even worse against the spread at 8-15-2 ATS. Chicago has managed to cover three in a row; however their luck might run out tonight. The Bulls escaped with 101-98 overtime win against Atlanta Saturday night and home squads being outscored by six or more points a game, after a close win by three points or less, are 20-57 ATS since 1996.

L.A. Clippers at San Antonio (-8.5, 193.5)

The Clippers have shown general improvement thus far at 12-14 and are in the midst of a six-game road trip. They won their last outing in Philadelphia 112-107 in OT and face a San Antonio club that has been scoring, averaging 107.3 points per game. Tonight watch the total, since it is best to play OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, after a team like the Clippers allowed 105 points or more, against opponent after they?ve scored 100 points or more five straight games. (40-12 L13Y)

Cleveland at Phoenix (-2, 209.5)

The ?Shaq-tus? makes his return to the desert, to face Phoenix who has yet to lose at home with 10-0 record (6-3-1 ATS). The Suns are off a 26-point walloping of Washington and teams that score 102 or more points a night, off a win by 15 or more, against an opponent that scores between 98-102 points per game, are 30-7 ATS if the line is +3 to -3.

 

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Trend Report - Monday

Trend Report - Monday

Trend Report - Monday


Kings at Bulls - The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since December 22, 2008 on the road as a dog after losing the previous matchup at home in which Jason Thompson scored fewer than 10 points. The Kings are 0-6-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since March 19, 1998 as a dog when facing a non-conference team they lost to as a dog by double digits in their first match-up of the season. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (15.2 ppg) since December 20, 2008 when facing a non-conference team they beat in their first match-up of the season. The Bulls are 0-8 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since March 31, 2007 at home as a favorite after winning the previous matchup on the road in which Kirk Hinrich was not the Bulls? high scorer. The Bulls are 8-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since December 15, 2006 at home when they won their last two games and both were at home.


Jazz at Magic - The Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 28, 2006 as a dog after winning the previous matchup at home in which Mehmet Okur took fewer than 10 shots. The Magic are 9-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since December 20, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since January 05, 2000 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Magic are 0-6-1 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since January 20, 2005 as a home favorite after a home win in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.

Bucks at Pacers - The Bucks are 7-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since April 06, 2008 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Andrew Bogut had a double double. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since April 14, 1999 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they blocked at least 10 shots. The Pacers are 7-0-3 ATS (3.4 ppg) since February 09, 2008 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since April 27, 1999 as a home favorite with at least one day of rest after a loss in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. The Pacers are 6-0-2 ATS (4.8 ppg) since January 16, 2008 at home off a road loss in which they led by 10+ points.

Clippers at Spurs - The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since January 05, 2007 as a dog with at least one day of rest when their DPS was at least plus 15 points in their previous game. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 26, 2004 with at least one day of rest off an overtime win. The Spurs are 12-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since November 05, 2002 before playing the Trailblazers at home. The Spurs are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since March 12, 2009 at home after a win in which Tim Duncan had a double double.

Cavaliers at Suns - The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since March 25, 1997 on the road after playing on the road against the Mavericks.

 

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Weekly Notes - East

Weekly Notes - East

Weekly Notes - East
December 20, 2009


1) Boston

Weekly Recap ? The Celtics had their 11-game winning streak snapped on Friday by Philadelphia (98-97) but Doc Rivers? team still managed to produce a 2-1 record (1-2 ATS) on the week. The ?over? went 2-0-1.

Weekly Outlook ? Boston finishes up its homestand on Tuesday against Indiana before a big revenge game at Orlando on Christmas. Then, the team embarks on a three-game road trip out West, with the first battle coming against the L.A. Clippers on Sunday. The Celtics own a league-best 12-1 (7-6 ATS) record on the road this year.

2) Cleveland

Weekly Recap ? Cleveland almost capped off the week with a perfect 4-0 mark but it came up short on Sunday against Dallas (95-102). Of the four games, this was probably the toughest on paper but the Mavericks won without All-Star Dirk Nowitzki. The Cavs went 1-3 ATS last week and the total was 2-2.

Weekly Outlook ? The Cavaliers have some tough sledding this week with four games on tap. They have to play Phoenix on Monday with zero days rest then head to Sacramento on Wednesday. Christmas offers up a nationally televised matchup against the L.A. Lakers before returning home on Sunday for a meeting with Houston.


3) Orlando

Weekly Recap ? The Magic had a tough docket last week and they responded with a 3-1 record. Unfortunately, gamblers backing Orlando watched them go 1-2-1 and the push was fortunate. The lone setback came at Miami (104-86) and it was ugly, but it was on zero days rest. Make a note that the Heat are now 2-0 versus the Magic this year. The ?under? went 3-1 last week.

Weekly Outlook ? Stan Van Gundy?s squad faces three home games this week, including a Christmas afternoon battle versus Boston. The Magic already beat the Celtics 83-78 on the road so most would expect a hungry opponent in this matchup. Prior to the encounter against Boston, Utah and Houston will visit the Magic Kingdom.

4) Atlanta

Weekly Recap ? The Hawks have started to heat up again, going 6-1 both SU and ATS in their last seven games. The team went 2-1 both SU and ATS last week, with the loss coming at Chicago (98-101). During the seven-game span, Atlanta only gave up 100-plus points twice but held four teams under 90.

Weekly Outlook ? Atlanta will stay on the road this week with three straight games at Minnesota, Denver and Indiana. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS this year as road underdogs and will likely be catching points against the Nuggets on Wednesday. However, this contest will be the second game in two nights.

5) Miami

Weekly Recap ? Miami had a chance to turn the corner this week with three games at home and it responded fairly well. The Heat ripped the Raptors (115-96) and Magic (104-86) earlier in the week but failed to knock out the Trail Blazers (95-102) on Sunday. The ?over? cashed in two of the three and is on a 6-1 run in the last seven.

Weekly Outlook ? The Heat will play another three-game set this week and two are at home. The Jazz visit Wednesday and the Pacers head to South Beach on Sunday. Sandwiched between the pair is a Christmas meeting against New York at Madison Square Garden.

6) Toronto

Weekly Recap ? Toronto went 2-0 at home last week and 2-0 on the road. The losses outside of Canada were a bit disturbing, since they came by margins of 20 and 19, but they did come in back-to-back style against the Sunshine State clubs (Heat, Magic). The ?over? went 3-1.

Weekly Outlook ? The Raptors will only step onto the hardwood twice this week. The team has a home-and-home against Detroit, which starts Wednesday at The Palace of Auburn Hills and ends Sunday in an afternoon matinee from Canada. Those wondering, Toronto beat Detroit 110-99 earlier this year but the Pistons swept the regular season series (3-0 SU & ATS) last year.

7) Milwaukee

Weekly Recap ? The Bucks caught some tough luck this week, which produced a 0-3 record. The three losses were by a combined five points and two of the games were buzzer beater losses. The ?under? cashed in two of the three. The only good thing is that two of the setbacks came against the Lakers and Cavaliers, which tells you how much Scott Skiles is getting out of his squad.

Weekly Outlook ? Milwaukee visits Indiana on Monday and then has two games at home versus Washington and San Antonio. Of the Bucks? 11 wins, nine of them have come at Bradley Center this year.

8) Detroit

Weekly Recap ? Detroit entered the week with a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS but that run has quickly become forgotten. The Pistons went 0-4 this past week against a quality quartet from the Western Conference and all four of the losses were by double digits. The club was 0-4 ATS and the total went 2-2.

Weekly Outlook ? The Pistons head to Charlotte on Tuesday before a home-and-home series with Toronto to close the week. They host on Wednesday and visit Canada on Sunday. Detroit has struggled to a 3-11 SU and 6-7-1 ATS mark on the road this season.

9) Charlotte

Weekly Recap ? Larry Brown?s team started the week with a victory over the Knicks and ended with a loss to New York. In between those battles, Charlotte lost at Indiana (98-101) and at home to Utah (102-110). The total went 2-2.

Weekly Outlook ? The Bobcats play two games this week and they?re broken up with a three-day break. The action starts Tuesday when Detroit visits. After that battle, the squad heads to Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Bobcats have struggled on the road this year, going 1-12 SU and 8-5 ATS.

10) Chicago

Weekly Recap ? The Bulls have played much better at home this year and last week proved that notion. Chicago went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its three battles at United Center. In its Saturday win over Atlanta (101-98), the Bulls eclipsed the century mark for just the third time in 25 games. The ?under? went 2-1 last week.

Weekly Outlook ? Chicago starts the week with a back-to-back set against the Kings and Knicks, which begins on Monday. The Sacramento contest will be at home, as will the battle against New Orleans on Saturday. Of the Bulls? 10 victories, eight have come in the Windy City.

11) New York

Weekly Recap ? New York started the week with back-to-back losses on the road but rallied for two straight wins at Madison Square Garden. The team still went 1-3 ATS and total players should note that the ?under? cashed in all four contests.

Weekly Outlook ? The Knicks have three games over the next seven days and all three will be played at Madison Square Garden. On Tuesday, Chicago comes to town and it just beat New York 98-89 last Thursday. After this tilt, the Knicks play a Christmas matinee against Miami on Friday before finishing the week versus San Antonio on Sunday.

12) Indiana

Weekly Recap ? The Pacers gained some confidence after going 2-1 the previous seven days. Unfortunately, Indiana went 1-3 last week and all three losses came on the road. The Pacers? offense only managed to crack the century mark once last week and still hasn?t four its rhythm without Danny Granger.

Weekly Outlook ? Indiana won?t be getting much time off for the holidays, with four games on the docket. To make matters worse, the schedule is broken up into a pair of back-to-back sets with travel too. Starting Monday, the Pacers host the Bucks then travel to Boston. On Friday, they welcome Atlanta then head to South Beach for a battle against Miami.

13) Washington

Weekly Recap ? Washington concluded its West Coast road trip Saturday with a blowout loss to Phoenix (95-121). The Wizards wound up going 1-3 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. Even though the Suns ripped them by 26, the other two losses on the trip were by a combined five points. It?s clear this team is better than its record (8-17) and should be watched closely.

Weekly Outlook ? Washington has three games this week and two are on the road. The Wizards face the 76ers at home on Tuesday before traveling to Milwaukee on Wednesday. They finish up the week at Minnesota on Saturday. Washington has had trouble scoring on the road, which has helped the ?under? go 10-4.

14) Philadelphia

Weekly Recap ? The 76ers looked good and bad last week. The team snapped their 11-game losing streak on Monday with a win over Golden State (117-101) before losing a tight affair to Cleveland (101-108). After that setback, Philadelphia rallied for a big road win against Boston on Friday. Unfortunately, they choked at home the next night to the L.A. Clippers (107-112). The ?over? went 3-0-1 during this span.

Weekly Outlook ? Philadelphia will be playing its next six games on the road, including a pair this week. The 76ers faced Washington on Tuesday and then Utah on Saturday. Gamblers should note that Philly is 3-10 SU on the road, but 8-4-1 ATS.

15) New Jersey

Weekly Recap ? It appears the Nets have taken their holiday break a week early. New Jersey went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS last week and all four setbacks were by double digits. The team was held to less than 100 during this run and they gave up an average of 107 PPG.

Weekly Outlook ? Fortunately for New Jersey, it only has to play two games this week and they?ll both be played at home. Minnesota comes to the East Coast on Wednesday and then Houston on Saturday.

 

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Monday's best NBA bets

Monday's best NBA bets

Monday's best NBA bets

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-2.5, 202.5)

The Bucks are going to have to get better production from their two highest-paid players if they?re going to make the playoffs in 2010.

Two guard Michael Redd is shooting just 38 percent from the field and 27 percent from 3-point land since coming back from injury. Making matters worse, franchise center Andrew Bogut went ice cold in the second half of Saturday?s game against the Kings.

The big pivot is struggling to find any type of chemistry with first-year point guard Brandon Jennings.

Bogut won?t find things any easier on Monday. Pacers center Roy Hibbert is capable of coming up with big defensive efforts like his six-block showing Saturday against the Spurs.

Pick: Pacers

Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic (-7.5, 203.5)

Marcin Gortat must be pissed. The long-time Orlando role player impressed during the club's postseason run last season. Dallas offered the big man a fat contract, but the Magic surprisingly matched the proposal. Now Gorat is the highest paid backup center and playing garbage minutes most nights.

Orlando hoped they could play Gorat next to All-Star Dwight Howard, but the pairing hasn't worked out in coach Stan Van Gundy's eyes.

Gorat isn't the only big man wasting away on the Magic's bench. Power forward Brandon Bass, who was signed to a healthy contract in the offseason, is lucky to get 10 minutes of play every other game.

Van Gundy's rotation pattern could end up hurting him. Howard is playing big minutes and could tire down the stretch. Also, when Howard gets in foul trouble, Gorat and Bass don't play with the same confidence they showed last season.

Could be a nice edge for Utah. The Jazz will try to attack Howard early on with bruising forwards Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap.

Pick: Jazz