NBA MON 122109-Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

JBrilman

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on those 2 and thinking about adding your Chic -4...you still liking?

Chi seems to be a heavy public favorite and up to -4.5 but I like the play, not sure of my final card yet, but will for sure play the UNDER in the bulls game. Leaning heavy on utah as well but the line movement back to 202 has me a little concerned.

I see most of the posts in the NFL forum across the street on the Skins tonight however I don't see them getting it done. Gmen still have some fight as evidenced the last 3 games I think they get it done tonight.
 

JBrilman

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Just saw this accross the street, it may keep me off the play...


Since 2006 the OVER is a perfect 11-0 in Jazz are a regular season games where they tip off as an UNDERDOG when they had shot over 50% FGs in their previous game out.

This trend is 23-6 over all time in these situations, going over by an average 9.6 points per game.

Last time out the Jazz shot 53% FG against the Bobcats and tonight are getting in the roll of Underdog catching 7.5 versus Orlando.

Play the Jazz/Magic to go OVER 202.
 

jlippens

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Does anyone know if its possible to get the NBA channel on the computer ... and if so - how ??? My wife said pick 3 ... NFL, Her, Big 10 and NBA ... after much deliberation and thought I picked the NFL, Big 10 and Her ... was tough but have been married 30 + years and she is a decent cook !!!

Post of the year
 

BillyBatts

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Plays

Plays

Just one play for me tonight guys

Bulls under 198


Had strong leans to Cavs at +2.5 and Spurs under, but don't think I will pull the trigger.

BOL gents. :mj06:
 

barts185

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Since 2006 the OVER is a perfect 11-0 in Jazz are a regular season games where they tip off as an UNDERDOG when they had shot over 50% FGs in their previous game out.

This trend is 23-6 over all time in these situations, going over by an average 9.6 points per game.

Last time out the Jazz shot 53% FG against the Bobcats and tonight are getting in the roll of Underdog catching 7.5 versus Orlando.


Not sure what their definition of all time means.

Going back to 1995 (limit of the database), I get the following (note the total as well as the over percentage)


team=Jazz and p:field goal percentage>50 and D
O/U: 67-34-1 (4.0) avg total: 193.8

regular season only
team=Jazz and p:field goal percentage>50 and D and playoffs=0
O/U: 65-32-1 (4.3) avg total: 193.5



for the one they quote

team=Jazz and season>=2006 and p:field goal percentage>50 and D

O/U: 21-8-0 (6.9) avg total: 202.7


regular season only

team=Jazz and season>=2006 and p:field goal percentage>50 and D and playoffs=0

O/U: 19-6-0 (8.7) avg total: 202.9




as an away dog

team=Jazz and season>=2006 and p:field goal percentage>50 and AD

O/U: 18-7-0 (8.2) avg total: 203.6

regular season only
team=Jazz and season>=2006 and p:field goal percentage>50 and AD and playoffs=0

O/U: 16-6-0 (9.1) avg total: 203.4



Here is this season


team=Jazz and season=2009 and p:field goal percentage>50 and D

O/U: 1-2-0 (-12.3) avg total: 201.3

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
20091114 UTH CLE A 103-107 0&1 52-51 +13 +191 -4 9.0 19.0 14.0 5.0 L W O
20091209 UTH LAL A 77-101 1&2 33-46 +10' +206' -24 -13.5 -28.5 -21.0 -7.5 L L U
20091218 UTH ATL A 83-96 1&1 42-44 +6' +206' -13 -6.5 -27.5 -17.0 -10.5 L L U
 
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JBrilman

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for the one they quote

team=Jazz and season>=2006 and p:field goal percentage>50 and D

O/U: 21-8-0 (6.9) avg total: 202.7



as an away dog

team=Jazz and season>=2006 and p:field goal percentage>50 and AD

O/U: 18-7-0 (8.2) avg total: 203.6


Here is this season


team=Jazz and season=2009 and p:field goal percentage>50 and AD

O/U: 1-2-0 (-12.3) avg total: 201.3

compelling enough to stay away
 

Slicer

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NBA looks sorted out...i'm a little torn on the NFL game tonight, lean Wash and under...any thoughts out there?

Im on Giants/over but for really really really small amounts, like $50 each lol.

I got my big wins yesterday and not pressing my luck, so Wash & Under should win :p
 

Ools

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I found a site atdhe.com that has a lot of games streaming. Tonight Bucks, Jazz, Kings, Clippers, and Cavs I guess everyone.

I also got an error message -- wasnt sure if my work was blocking it, but guess not
 

softballmaniac

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NBA looks sorted out...i'm a little torn on the NFL game tonight, lean Wash and under...any thoughts out there?

Ools, Lang has a 30 dime release on the G-Men. We all know about him. Also, across the street there is a Fade Friend thread going on for the year. Over 100,000 views. The FF picks the Giants which means take Washington. Check out that thread. Amazing to say the least. :mj07: Hope this helps you...:0corn
 

Ools

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Was reading next door that the field conditions will be less than perfect with all the snow and moisture and that Coughlin commented on it...leans me to under 44 in wash/nyg
 

grindstone

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Nice day yesterday GS! Keep up the good work!

Small card today but thought I would open it up for discussion.

Early leans need to narrow it down

Sac/Chi U198
Chi -4
UTH +8
PHO -2.5

Thanks JB just trying to help
 

grindstone

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Utah / Orlando under 201 ... my only play today

Last week ... 9 - 3 ... works for me !!!

Good Luck Everyone ... let's have a good Christmas week !!!

Congrats Chump I also had it but couldn't post on time :00hour
 
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