NFL WEEK 16

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Books juggle motivation factors

Despite all the playoff scenarios set to unfold this weekend, attempting to play encore to a week in the NFL that witnessed one of its brethren tragically pass is a daunting task.

Not only did Chris Henry?s unsightly death create an inspiring stage of football, the games that enveloped it were worth the price of admission.

Seven outcomes were decided inside the final two minutes or overtime while the Vikings, Saints, Cardinals and Chargers clinched their respective divisions.

San Diego faced a Bengals team laden with heavy hearts, but emerged victorious after a last-second field goal parted the uprights. The win, coupled with Denver?s head-scratching loss to Oakland, supplied the Chargers with their fifth consecutive AFC West title.

Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker with the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, doesn?t believe this is the same Chargers team that storms through the regular season but can never get to the postseason Promised Land.

San Diego has won nine straight, but are getting points on the road to a 7-7 Tennessee team?

?To me it?s an automatic take with the Chargers at 3, we will see if it stays at that number,? said Seba, who opened the Chargers as a 1-point favorite with a total of 47. ?As good as Tennessee is playing, our thinking was that San Diego had to be a slight favorite because they are on another level.?

Seba assumes the line movement is a result of bettors taking the angle that the Titans are still in the playoff hunt, albeit an outside chance, while the Chargers only have to win one of their next two games in order to lock up the second seed in the AFC.

?[The Chargers] are still trying to get that first-round bye, but they could lose this week and get it next week at home against Washington,? he said. ?So a bettor might think they could tank this game and get it at home next week.?

Another matchup on the board with postseason implications is the AFC North bout between the Ravens and Steelers.

Baltimore controls its own playoff fate, currently holding the top wild card spot and needing two wins to guarantee a postseason berth. Pittsburgh showed resolve in the win over Green Bay after losing five straight, but the team only has a minute chance of making the playoffs.

The LVSC sent out a spread of 1.5 in favor of the Steelers with a total of 38, but most markets are currently offering Pittsburgh as 2.5-point favorites.

?Had the Steelers lost yesterday, this line probably would have been reversed with Baltimore being a slight favorite,? Seba said. ?Because the Steelers won I actually made them 3 and now it?s 2.5, but I would not be surprised to see it go back to 3.?

The Ravens rallied from behind and kicked the game-winning field goal in overtime to defeat the Steelers, 20-17, in Week 12. Seba thinks this game could be a lot like the first and sent out a total of 38. Some shops have the total as high as 41, but the LVSC opened with the lower number because of the possibility of inclement weather.

Two teams that are currently in the playoffs but heading in opposite directions, meet in Philadelphia on Sunday.

The Eagles are soaring right now, winners of five straight and securing a playoff spot with a convincing win over the 49ers last week.

The Broncos started the season 6-0, but have lost six of their last eight games and are barely grasping the final wild card spot. Denver suffered a late-season collapse a year ago after surrendering a three-game divisional lead to the Chargers with three games to play.

When asked if he could see the Broncos finishing in a similar fashion in 2009, Seba said he wouldn?t be surprised.

?The only reason I say that is because when you lose a game like yesterday at home to a team like Oakland, you don?t just lose the game but also lose confidence in your abilities,? he stated. ?They went from clinching a playoff spot to now fighting for their lives to get into the playoffs. I don?t like their chances.?

The LVSC released the Eagles as 7-point favorites with a total of 43.5.

Week 16 NFL lines: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-13.5); Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5); Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-9); Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-3); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-14.5); Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9); St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-14); Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5); New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7); Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+7.5).

Pointspreads for the Raiders-Browns, Panthers-Giants and Cowboys-Redskins have not been released as of Monday.

 

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Colts coach Caldwell coy about resting starters

Colts coach Caldwell coy about resting starters

Colts coach Caldwell coy about resting starters

Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Caldwell was intentionally vague about his plans to play his regular starters in Sunday's game against the New York Jets, colts.com reported.

Caldwell told reporters for a starter not to play would have to be a health issue, but then added that he couldn't say exactly which players would play one series or the entire game.

The Colts, 14-0, have already clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed for the playoffs and have little to gain aside from trying to become the third team in NFL history to go through the regular season undefeated.

The Colts were in the same position in Thursday night's 35-31 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and used most of their starters from start to finish.

Oddsmakers have the Colts listed as 7.5-point favorites for Sunday's game against the Jets.

 

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NFL notes: Bills and Browns dealing with quarterback injuries

NFL notes: Bills and Browns dealing with quarterback injuries

NFL notes: Bills and Browns dealing with quarterback injuries

Cleveland Browns quarterback Brady Quinn was placed on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday with a foot injury, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported.

Quinn was hurt in the waning stages of the Browns' 41-34 over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

Coach Eric Mangini said the injury will take awhile to heal but it is unclear if Quinn will require surgery.

This game originally opened at Cleveland -3.5 but came off the board after word broke about the QB injury.

Quinn has been in and out of the lineup this season, going 2-7 as a starter. It is the second straight season he has landed on injured reserve.

Derek Anderson, who opened the season as the starter, will be under center for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders.

Meanwhile, Buffalo Bills quarterback Brian Brohm could make his first career start in Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons, the Buffalo News reported.

Oddsmakers have the Bills listed as 9-point dogs at Atlanta with the total set at 41.

Starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards suffered ankle injuries in Sunday's loss to the New England Patriots.

Edwards reportedly has a high-ankle sprain that will sideline him for the remainder of the season.

Fitzgerald was benched in Sunday's loss but was forced to return to the game when Edwards was injured on his first series.

Brohm was signed off the practice squad of the Green Bay Packers in November. He was a second-round pick of the Packers in 2008.

 

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AFC still wide open

AFC still wide open

AFC still wide open
December 22, 2009
By Sportsbook.com

AFC Playoff Race Still Wide Open

With only two weeks left in the NFL regular season, every AFC team except four (Kansas City, Cleveland, Buffalo & Oakland) still have a chance to advance to the playoffs. This is what makes the NFL such a wonderful sport to follow, because of the parity you get year in, year out. As a result of the logjam among playoff contenders in the AFC, Sportsbook.com has decided to put up odds for each of these teams to make the playoffs.

According to Sportsbook.com spokesperson Dave Staley, "What also makes this particular betting opportunity so intriguing, is that you also have the option on wagering that teams will not make the playoffs."

Currently, the two AFC wild card leaders are Denver and Baltimore, each with records of 8-6. The Broncos suffered a devastating 20-19 loss at home last week to the Raiders. While Denver is still sitting in a relatively good position to make the playoffs, keep in mind that this week they have to go on the road and face one of the hottest teams in the league in Philadelphia. Sportsbook.com odds makers have made both Denver and Baltimore -500 to advance to the postseason, while their odds are +350 not to make the playoffs.

One team that is playing some great football over the past couple months is Tennessee. The Titans have now won seven out their past eight games, including a dramatic overtime win last week against the Dolphins. Vince Young is playing at a very high level at the moment, as he now is making all the right throws in addition to possessing the running ability that we already knew about. Problem for Tennessee is that this week they have to face another red hot team, San Diego, winners of nine in row. The Titans currently are +300 to make the playoffs; so if you think they can knock off the Chargers, a wager on Tennessee making the playoffs makes a lot of sense.

"Despite head coach Mike Tomlin's brain cramp against the Packers where he decided to try an onside kick with 4 minutes remaining with the lead, the Steelers are a team that no one wants to face if they do sneak into the playoffs" added Staley. "Some may think that the Steelers' odds to advance to the postseason are a bit small at +200, but keep in mind that they play the Ravens at home next week, and a win over Baltimore will result in both teams having identical 8-7 records."

Go to Sportsbook.com now to check out these odds and more. With only two weeks left in the NFL Regular Season, the time is now to build your NFL bankroll for the playoffs.

Here are the odds for the teams in the AFC that are still alive in the playoff race.
New England Patriots

Yes -1200 No +700

Cincinnati Bengals

Yes -1500 No +800

Baltimore Ravens

Yes -500 No +350

Denver Broncos

Yes -360 No +280

Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes +250 No -330

Miami Dolphins

Yes +350 No -500

Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes +400 No -600

Tennessee Titans

Yes +300 No -400

N.Y. Jets

Yes +800 No -1500

Houston Texans

Yes +1200 No -2000

 

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NFL coaches have no faith in own defenses

NFL coaches have no faith in own defenses

NFL coaches have no faith in own defenses


??Cause I gotta have faith.?

Hopefully, being reminded of George Michael?s fame, in a sports betting column of all places, is a bad enough beat to satisfy all us Sadomasochists, who enjoy tormenting ourselves by reliving and dissecting difficult defeats.

Because, honestly, we didn?t see too many bad beats this week. But we did witness another controversial coaching decision that we?d love to discuss, one that reminded us of both the bathroom lover and a growing trend in the NFL ? faith, or the lack thereof.

Pittsburgh?s Mike Tomlin was the latest NFL coach to admit that he had little faith that his defense was capable of stopping their opponent, in this case Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

Tomlin follows Bill Belichick, who thought his defense had less of a chance of stopping Peyton Manning on a late-game drive than his offense had of picking up a 4th-and-2 from his own 28, when leading the Colts 34-28 with 2:08 to play.

It backfired, and suddenly, Belichick, owner of three Super Bowl rings, wasn?t worth his sleeveless hoody. (Didn?t George Michael also sport the sleeveless look? I?m just saying).

Tomlin?s decision hasn?t received nearly the publicity, but it was equally, if not more, risky.

After kicker Jeff Reed put the Steelers ahead of Green Bay 30-28 with four minutes to play, Tomlin elected for a surprise onside kick. It backfired ? kind of.

Ike Taylor touched the ball before it went 10 yards, giving the Packers the football at the Steeler 39 yard line.

Six plays later, Rodgers connected with James Jones for the go-ahead touchdown.

You could almost feel Steeler Nation?s blood boil.

On-side kick up two with four minutes to play? Are you kidding me?

No, Tomlin wasn?t kidding. In fact, everything worked out almost exactly how he had planned.

Because the Packers were given the short field due to the onside kick, they scored quicker than if they would have had to drive the length of the field, something they had done with ease throughout the game.

The Steelers had a little over two minutes left, after the Packers? scored. Turns out, that was just enough for Ben Roethlisberger to march the Steelers 86 yards in 11 plays and throw a winning touchdown pass to rookie Mike Wallace on the last play of the game.

"I'll be very bluntly honest with you, based on the way the game was going in the second half, first of all I thought with the element of surprise we had a chance to get it, but if we didn't get it and they were to score, then we would have necessary time on the clock to score or match their score,? he explained to the media following the game.

?Plan A didn't work, we got the ball but we were illegal, that was the correct call, but it kind of unfolded the way you envisioned it. We had 30 minutes of evidence that we could drive the ball on them, we also conversely had 30 minutes of evidence to show they could also drive the ball on us.

?That's why we took the risk when we did. We were just trying to win the football game. There was time left in that game that had we kicked that ball away and the half had gone the way that it'd gone, they were converting third downs.

?They would have moved the ball down the field on us, we wouldn't have had necessary time to respond. I'm just being honest, but it starts with feeling pretty good about the element of surprise and having a good chance to get that ball, but that part of it didn't work out.?

Sounds good to us. What do you think?

 

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Clearing up the AFC playoff clutter

Clearing up the AFC playoff clutter

Clearing up the AFC playoff clutter


From Yahoo! to your local newspaper, reports from just about everywhere are selling you on the idea that 10 AFC teams have a chance to grab the final four playoff spots. Literally, yes, but not so in reality.

This much is known:

Indianapolis is in and any pre-Super Bowl postseason games involving the Colts will be played in the climate-controlled Lucas Oil Stadium.

San Diego also can relax. The Chargers? chances of losing the No. 2 AFC seed (and first-round bye) are roughly akin to Eric Mangini winning the Boston Marathon.

After that things get a bit more complicated, but really strange goings-on would have to occur for some teams to be playing beyond Jan. 3. Here?s a look at the AFC teams entering Week 16:

New York Jets ? Say goodnight, Gracie. That loss to the Falcons pretty much sealed the deal for Rex Ryan?s boys, and all the talking in the world won?t get them more than 16 games. Most likely finish ? 7-9 and out of playoffs.

Houston Texans ? If these guys were in the Wizard of Oz, they?d be looking for a heart. They can?t win a big game to save their lives, and they spit up blood regularly against everyone else in the AFC South (1-5 this season). Stick a fork in them. Most likely finish ? 8-8 and out of playoffs.

Tennessee Titans ? Jeff Fisher will have the entire offseason to second-guess himself about starting the season with Kerry Collins at QB. That 0-6 start was too great to overcome. The Titans have no shot. Most likely finish ? 8-8 and out of playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers ? Give the defending champs some props for refusing to go quietly. If they get rid of Baltimore on Sunday and finish strong at Miami, the Steelers have a 1-in-8 chance of grabbing a wild card spot. They would then qualify as a tough out. But . . . most likely finish ? 8-8 and out of playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars ? Jags finish up at New England (Sunday) and at Cleveland, and 9-7 would be a nice turnaround in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Chances of making it are maybe 1 in 4, but think how different things would look now if J-Ville had beaten Indy twice instead of losing twice (by a total of 6 points). Most likely finish ? 8-8 and out of playoffs.

Miami Dolphins ? Bizarre offense, bizarre season. Dolphins always seemed to fall back just as they were getting near the top of the hill. They?d have to hit on 16 against the dealer?s ace and catch a 4 or 5 to make it. Most likely finish ? 8-8 and out of playoffs.

Denver Broncos ? They should get in, but if they find a way to lose to Kansas City and wind up on the outside looking in, they?ll be compared to the 1964 Phillies. Most likely finish ? 9-7 and 6th seed.

Baltimore Ravens ? The Ravens have not been on the radar much since stumbling in October into early November, and they finish at Pittsburgh and at Oakland. Wins in both games would likely get them a trip to Foxboro. Most likely finish ? 10-6 and 5th seed.

New England Patriots ? Tom Brady is nursing finger and rib injuries, and a win over Jacksonville at home Sunday locks up the East and earns the team what in essence would be a recuperative bye week at Houston on Jan. 3. Most likely finish ? AFC East champion at 10-6 and 4th seed.

Cincinnati Bengals ? After tough road losses to Minnesota and San Diego, the Bengals would send their team plane to Kansas City to bring in the Chiefs. They lock down the division Sunday. Most likely finish ? AFC North champion at 10-6 and 3rd seed.

Will Favre also make the defensive calls?

We knew that Brad Childress has a man-crush on Brett Favre. No news there. So does every producer at ESPN. But does Childress have to let Favre make a fool of him on national TV?

Favre?s refusal to come out of the Carolina game provided more evidence that Favre thinks he is bigger than the game ? and certainly bigger than his coach. How does Childress, who has been put in his place, now take Favre out of either the Chicago or New York Giants games?

Motivation a factor for Arizona

St. Louis deserves every single one of the 14 points it will be getting when it travels to the desert to take on the Cardinals this weekend, but bettors inclined to lay the points would do well to recall Week 17 last year, when Arizona headed to New England. Saying the Cardinals mailed it in that game, which was played in a snowstorm, would be an insult to all the other teams who have ever given less than their best effort. NE rolled, 47-7, and members of the Boston media called for the league to investigate whether Arizona had even tried to win the game.

That?s why they get the big bucks

File this under Duh! In six of the eight divisions the team with the highest-rated quarterback has either clinched or is leading. Only in the AFC North North, where Ben Roethlisberger is rated higher than Carson Palmer, and the NFC East (Tony Romo slightly higher than Donovan McNabb) is the team with the better quarterback not on top.

Lions are paper tigers on the road

Oddsmakers may have set the line a bit too thin on the Detroit-at-San Francisco game. It opened at Niners -10 and by Tuesday had already been bet up to 11.5 in most books, and 12 at some. The Lions are ravaged by injuries, have yet to decide on their starting quarterback (it won?t be Matthew Stafford) and in seven road games this season (all losses) have been defeated by an average of 22 points a game.

Planning to be in Vegas for the Super Bowl?

We are.

Covers.com will be in Vegas all week long (Feb. 1-7), and in particular at the Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook. We?ll be reporting on all aspects of the game and the line ? SU wagers, O/U, props . . . the works. We?ll be talking with the folks who made the line and discuss what it takes for a line to move.

We also want to talk to you. We?re planning a get-together (date, time and site not yet determined) for Covers readers, and we?d like to write about you. Come out from behind that screen name and tell us about yourself. We want to know who you are, who you plan to bet on, and why.

On Super Bowl Sunday Covers.com will be blogging live before, during and after the game, so if you can?t make it to Vegas, check us out at on Super Sunday, and add your voice to the live blog (as long as you keep it clean).

Unless you can afford a penthouse suite at the MGM and have commitments from several of Tiger?s closest lady friends, there?s no better place to watch the game than the Hilton. The sportsbook seats several thousand (though you?ll need to get there early), there are plenty of wagering windows and you?re never far from food and drinks.

Speaking of drinks, see us at the Hilton and identify yourself as a Covers reader, and the drinks are on us (the first one, anyway).

So whether you?re a minnow or a whale, if you plan to be in Vegas on Super Bowl week, we want to connect with you. Send us an e-mail here at and we?ll get back to you with more details.

 

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Payton says no rest for Saints starter against Bucs

Payton says no rest for Saints starter against Bucs

Payton says no rest for Saints starter against Bucs


New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton said Tuesday that he has no plans on resting his front-line players during the season's final games even though the team's bid for a perfect season is over, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reported.

Payton stated that the team was ?moving full-speed ahead.?

New Orleans suffered its first loss of the season on Thursday, a 24-17 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys.

The Saints have already clinched the NFC South and currently hold a two-game advantage over the Minnesota Vikings for best record in the conference.

New Orleans hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The Saints are 14-point favorites with a total of 49.5.

 

[THE KOD]

I think the 16-0 is very important to this Coach.

They will play good enough for a mini blow out and then let up to win.

that works for me .

 

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Manning, Colts won't slow down

Manning, Colts won't slow down

Manning, Colts won't slow down

It might not be a unanimous vote, and a few other players certainly are worthy of consideration, but there is no doubt Peyton Manning is the Most Valuable Player in the NFL this season.

Drew Brees and Philip Rivers also are playing the quarterback position at the highest level, and running back Chris Johnson is in the chase.

Manning simply is head and shoulders above the rest. His numbers back up his case, but Indianapolis' record (14-0) says it best.

He won at Miami despite the Dolphins controlling the clock for 45 minutes. He came back to beat New England after Tom Brady and Bill Belichick seemed to have him buried. Manning has met every challenge.

The Colts carry a 23-game regular-season winning streak into Sunday's game against the New York Jets. All the questions about either resting key players or pursuing perfection must be asked, but the answer appears obvious.

Indianapolis will have a bye week in the playoffs to relax. Sitting Manning and other starters is risking too much. In the past, when coach Tony Dungy called the shots, the Colts tried that plan and repeatedly lost their edge in the playoffs.

Manning needs to stay sharp. Wide receiver Reggie Wayne, tight end Dallas Clark and the offensive line need to stay sharp. Timing is everything to the Indianapolis offense. If the Colts take two or three weeks off, they could be sitting ducks for the San Diego Chargers.

Losing a game could help Brees and the New Orleans Saints, who were obsessed with going undefeated. But the Colts have been here before, and they can handle it.

Manning has attempted 532 passes this season. He has thrown for 33 touchdowns -- tied with Brees for the league lead -- and been sacked only 10 times. Amazing numbers.

The Colts have covered five consecutive games, and I look for them to extend that streak to six as 5-point favorites over the Jets.

Expect coach Jim Caldwell, who has learned from Dungy's mistakes, to play Manning and others extensively.

If that happens, it's hard to imagine Manning will lose a showdown with Jets rookie Mark Sanchez, who has 12 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. So the pick here is the Colts.

Of course, my picks were a bad joke last week. I was embarrassed to be on lame-duck coach Jim Zorn and the Washington Redskins, who unveiled the worst fake field-goal attempt in history. Zorn should have been fired at halftime.

Four more plays for Week 16 (Home team in CAPS):

? BROWNS (-3) over Raiders: Cleveland's lack of a quarterback is not a major issue with Jerome Harrison running and Josh Cribbs returning kicks. The Raiders' poor quarterback play is an issue. The Browns can run and stop the run, and that should be a winning formula in cold weather.

? DOLPHINS (-3) over Texans: Chad Henne is developing into a promising quarterback for Miami, which is 4-2 against the spread at home. Houston was totally uninspired at St. Louis last week, and a similar effort will get the Texans toasted.

? Broncos (+7) over EAGLES: After an inexcusable loss to Oakland, there is desperation in Denver. The Broncos hung tough at Indianapolis two weeks ago. Brian Dawkins and the defense will keep Denver in this game, one it needs to win with its AFC wild-card hopes fading.

? Vikings (-7) over BEARS: All the bickering in Minnesota between quarterback Brett Favre and coach Brad Childress could be a positive. The Vikings got a wake-up call in Carolina. Favre has played poorly in the cold in his old age, so Adrian Peterson should get more carries. Jay Cutler and the Bears have been terrible. Cutler's interception count is at 25. Chicago has failed to cover in seven straight games.

Last week: 0-4-1 against the spread

Season: 33-39-3

 

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Rodgers, Packers won't falter

Rodgers, Packers won't falter

Rodgers, Packers won't falter

Seattle lacking in motivation, offensive power

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

When he's not getting sacked, Aaron Rodgers is one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks, and his maturation has helped turn around the fortunes of the Green Bay Packers this season.

The Packers (9-5) are in position to clinch an NFC playoff spot with a win today. The task seems relatively easy for Green Bay, which is a 14-point favorite over Seattle at Lambeau Field. Snow is in the forecast.

The Seahawks, 1-6 straight up and against the spread (ATS) on the road, were whipped 34-7 at Houston two weeks ago.

Seattle coach Jim Mora has struggled to motivate his team -- evidenced by last week's 24-7 home loss to Tampa Bay -- and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is fighting back problems.

"The Packers have one of the league's most potent offenses, and Rodgers should carve up Seattle's banged-up secondary," said Doug Kezirian, the sports director for KTNV (Ch. 13). "Mora recently questioned his team's toughness, and understandably so. In five road defeats, Seattle has lost by an average of 19 points."

Green Bay is 3-1 ATS after a loss. Following the Packers' last-second 37-36 setback at Pittsburgh, Kezirian said he expects "maximum effort" from the home favorite.

Rodgers has 28 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions. He's fifth in the league with 3,962 yards passing but has absorbed a league-high 49 sacks. That sack total is alarming, but Rodgers has kept turnovers to a minimum.

His top wideouts, Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, each have 61 receptions. Ryan Grant, with 1,105 yards rushing and eight touchdowns, adds to the Packers' arsenal of weapons.

"The sharpest handicappers avoid double-digit favorites, but I cannot see any sort of effort from Seattle," Kezirian said. "West Coast teams typically crumble in the snow, especially with an early start time. The Packers know what's at stake and should bury the Seahawks by halftime.

"When I like a game this much, I try to envision scenarios where it falters. But Green Bay holds a significant advantage on all fronts."

Kezirian (ktnv.com) analyzes the rest of today's Week 16 lineup:

? Oakland at Cleveland (-3): After beating Denver last week, the Raiders have defeated a handful of the league's top teams. But Oakland predictably followed all those wins with pathetic performances, losing four times by a combined score of 119-23. The Raiders also must deal with their fourth road game in five weeks, an early kickoff time and temperatures in the 20s.

The Browns have shown life lately, and if they can limit Oakland's rushing attack, they should bury a dysfunctional team that is prime for a letdown. Elin trusts Tiger more than I do the Raiders in this situation. This is one of my strongest plays.

? Kansas City at Cincinnati (-131/2): The Bengals have endured a tremendous amount of adversity. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer lost his wife midseason, and wide receiver Chris Henry passed away 10 days ago. The team attended Henry's funeral Tuesday and understandably is distracted. Playing one of the league doormats only worsens the motivation, so I expect the Chiefs to keep this within the number. The underdog has covered in 13 of Cincinnati's 14 games.

? Buffalo at Atlanta (-9): Falcons coach Mike Smith has annoyed fantasy football owners all season with the injury status of his offensive starters. Once again, quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner are game-time decisions. I have no desire to lay this many points when Chris Redman has a chance to start at QB. I also cannot support a Buffalo offense that considers two touchdowns an achievement. Although the total (41) is relatively low, I lean to the under.

? Houston at Miami (-3): Jerry Seinfeld would classify the Texans as the "bizarro" Dolphins. Miami executive vice president Bill Parcells must cringe when seeing all of Houston's talent basically go to waste. Miami is blue collar, runs the ball effectively and plays the field-position game. The Texans suffer too many turnovers and lose games in the fourth quarter. When you expect the Texans to zig, they zag. I side with the tougher and more reliable team, but a strong showing from Houston would not shock me.

? Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7): Carolina has been out of the playoff picture for a while but is playing hard. New York has a pulse for the postseason, and its offense has become more of a passing attack. I cannot lay the touchdown because quarterback Eli Manning struggles at home. I do like the over (42) a bit, especially because the Giants defense either forces turnovers or gives up the big play.

? Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-14): The Saints finally suffered their first loss and will go through the motions until the playoffs, especially against this weak opponent. Do not let Tampa's road win over Seattle fool you. The Bucs are awful and own an anemic offense. I like this under the total (491/2) with both teams lacking motivation.

? Jacksonville at New England (-81/2): Patriots coach Bill Belichick continues to confuse handicappers and play mind games with his team. New England lacks the killer instinct of recent years, and I am convinced quarterback Tom Brady is injured. The Jaguars have a horrible secondary, and coach Jack Del Rio is a buffoon, but I still think they are a live underdog. Jacksonville is tougher than the Patriots and will capitalize on 10 days of rest.

? Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3): These teams have produced throwback games full of hard hits and field-position battles. But Baltimore's defense is aging, and Pittsburgh has transitioned to a passing attack behind Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers continue to give up points without injured safety Troy Polamalu. I expect this to fly over the total (42) as one of my top plays.

? Denver at Philadelphia (-7): The Broncos likely cost themselves a playoff berth with an inexcusable effort against Oakland. Denver is 2-6 straight up and ATS in its past eight games. Philadelphia has scored the most first-half points in the league and covered three straight games. But I don't trust Donovan McNabb. For every spectacular throw, he short-hops an open target. The Eagles are tempting, but I pass.

? St. Louis at Arizona (-141/2): Everyone is waiting for the Cardinals to flip the switch like they did last year, and one would assume the one-win Rams are the ideal opponent. But St. Louis plays hard, and Arizona seems like it is on cruise control until the playoffs. I also believe quarterback Kurt Warner is not fully recovered from a midseason concussion. The Arizona coaching staff is determined to establish a strong defense and reliable rushing attack. I have a slight lean to the under (431/2).

? Detroit at San Francisco (-13): I never thought I would see the day Alex Smith would quarterback a team favored by this many points. Even more surprising, I'm backing the 49ers. San Francisco is out of the playoff hunt but is determined to win its last two games and finish with its best record in seven seasons. Detroit will start a third-stringer at quarterback, and a win would inhibit its draft position. The 49ers defense is solid, and Smith has enough weapons to cover.

? N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (-5): Although the Colts have locked up home field, they maintain they will play their starters the entire game. But one play can change everything. Jets coach Rex Ryan loves to blitz and realizes one hard hit on Peyton Manning will relegate him to the clipboard. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez's poor play almost directly is correlated to the weather. He should play fine in the dome, but Manning's minutes are too unpredictable. I pass.

? Dallas (-7) at Washington: The Redskins laid a big egg Monday, despite playing at home in prime time. The Cowboys beat the Saints in a huge game, but my gut tells me Washington will rise to the occasion and try to redeem itself. Still, Dallas defensive end Demarcus Ware should feast on a challenged offensive line, and that spells doom for the Redskins. I like the under (42).

 

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BETTING INSIDER: With playoff spots open, expect dramatic ending

BETTING INSIDER: With playoff spots open, expect dramatic ending

BETTING INSIDER: With playoff spots open, expect dramatic ending

Unlike last season, final weeks hold importance for wild-card pursuers




Rewind one year and remember how meaningless the last few weekends were in the NFL regular season. It's all much different now, because there will be drama in this finish.

We won't be experiencing any apathy today or in Week 17 as the AFC and NFC wild-card races are wide open.

The NFC is not that difficult to sort out. The Green Bay Packers (9-5) are in the driver's seat, but they are forced to show up for the last two weeks after blowing last week's game at Pittsburgh.

Fortunately for the Packers, they're 14-point home favorites today over a Seattle team that seemingly has run for the bus.

The Packers close the season at Arizona, where the Cardinals might be resting players. Arizona and Green Bay have a realistic chance of meeting again the following week in the playoffs.

Dallas (9-5) and the New York Giants (8-6) likely are dueling for the final spot in the NFC.

The Giants looked great Monday at Washington, but take that with a grain of salt. New York is a 7-point favorite over a banged-up Carolina team today, and the Giants close at Minnesota, with the Vikings potentially resting key personnel.

The Cowboys have played well recently and are coming off an upset win at New Orleans. The bad news is we're forced to watch the Redskins again tonight, when Tony Romo and the Cowboys roll into Washington as 7-point favorites.

It's a big rivalry, so there's a chance the Redskins will put up a fight, but it would help if they don't try ill-conceived fake field goals.

The AFC playoff picture is crowded and confusing.

In Miami, a pair of 7-7 teams collide, with the Dolphins installed as 3-point favorites over the Houston Texans.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are 3-point home favorites over Baltimore, which at 8-6 controls its destiny.

Jacksonville (7-7) holds the tiebreaker edge in many scenarios, but the Jaguars face a difficult task as 71/2-point underdogs at New England.

The New York Jets are 51/2-point underdogs at Indianapolis, and the Colts are giving every indication that they are interested in completing a 16-0 regular season.

Denver would be in if the season ended today, but the Broncos might be on the outside looking in when all is said and done. The Broncos are 7-point underdogs at Philadelphia, and they wrap up the season at home against Kansas City.

The fact so many games matter this late in the season is music to the ears of the multitude of fans intently following the games. The NFL's power is reflected in terms of the wagering handle.

"Even if the games are meaningless, the bettors will still head to the windows," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "The holidays actually have a much deeper impact on how much is wagered as opposed to the quality or importance of the games. Things will hit full stride again in the final week of the season."

This could be your final opportunity to get juicy Super Bowl futures. Teams such as Baltimore and Green Bay are higher than 25-1 odds, but those numbers might fall if they win today.

"That's a fair statement," Kornegay said. "But it's also a matter of how teams look in the process. If they win in impressive fashion, the title odds will definitely decrease. If someone wins in ugly fashion, their odds could actually go up."

One of the more entertaining games today might be Oakland at Cleveland. The Browns are 3-point favorites. Neither team is good, but both are playing hard and could put on a decent show. I'd rather see these teams play than suffer through another prime-time Redskins debacle.

 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES
THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE BUCS (+14) OVER THE SAINTS

Tampa Bay posted an impressive win over Seattle. You can expect another big effort.

The Saints have a knack for falling behind and rallying for the win, which makes covering two touchdowns difficult.

The Saints have little to play for, needing only to win one of their last two games, or have the Vikings lose, to clinch home-field advantage.


THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE COWBOYS (-7) OVER THE REDSKINS

To say the Redskins put in a lackluster effort last week would be an understatement.

The Cowboys need to win to make the playoffs.

The Cowboys are coming off an impressive win at New Orleans and should build on that.

LAST WEEK: 0-0-2

SEASON: 10-18-2

 

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Trend Setters - Week 16

Trend Setters - Week 16

Trend Setters - Week 16

The regular season has only two weeks left, but the action is still heavy around the NFL. The Week 16 card showcases all but three games involving teams in playoff contention. In this week's version of Trend Setters, we'll feature five contests, including the Giants trying to get back in the NFC playoffs.

Panthers at Giants (-7, 42) - 1:00 PM EST

The last time these two teams met up was in Week 16 last season, as New York rallied past Carolina in overtime, 34-28, to secure the top seed in the NFC. Both the Giants and Panthers lost their initial playoff game, but this season New York is the only team in Sunday's matchup still alive for the postseason.

The Giants own an 8-6 record, however, they have won only three of their last nine games. New York is coming off a 45-12 demolishing of Washington on Monday night, but Tom Coughlin's team is in a 'fade' spot according to several situations. The Giants are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games following a win, while compiling an 0-4 ATS the last four contests as a favorite of at least 4 ? points.

The Panthers are not scoring a ton of points with Matt Moore at quarterback in place of the injured Jake Delhomme. However, Carolina has covered all three games since Delhomme has been out, while the Panthers are riding a streak of five consecutive 'unders.' John Fox's team has been a solid play over the last two months, covering six of the last eight games. The underdog role has profited nicely, with the Panthers going 5-1 ATS the last six when receiving points.

Bills at Falcons (-9, 41) - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta returns to the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome after pulling out a 10-7 victory over the Jets last week to even its mark at 7-7. The Falcons had plenty of promise to begin the season, but will not return to the postseason after qualifying last season. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS under interim head coach Perry Fewell, while covering on the road at Jacksonville and Kansas City.

The Falcons went on a nice streak of 'overs' in October and early November, hitting five straight. But since then, Atlanta is in the midst of four consecutive 'unders,' which also coincides with QB Matt Ryan missing nearly three games. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU at home following a road win.

The Bills are riding a solid 'under' run, finishing 'under' the total in nine of the last 12 games. Buffalo has cashed four of six times this season as a road underdog, while going 6-2 ATS the last eight in that role.

Buccaneers at Saints (-14, 49 ?) - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans is in an unfamiliar role this week when it hosts lowly Tampa Bay. The Saints are coming off a loss for the first time this season, falling to the Cowboys, 24-17 last Saturday. The Bucs are actually off a win for just the second time in 2009, as Tampa Bay slapped down Seattle, 24-7.

The Saints have struggled as a favorite of at least a touchdown recently, going 1-6 ATS the last seven. Sean Payton's team is only 2-15 ATS the last 17 games as a favorite of at least seven points against division foes. However, New Orleans has been nearly automatic off a defeat, compiling a 9-1 ATS mark since 2007.

Tampa Bay doesn't score many points, but they also haven't allowed a ton of points over the last month. The Bucs have seen the 'under' cash in five straight games, while Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown or less three times in this span. Raheem Morris' squad is a strong 3-1 ATS as a road underdog of at least 9 ? points this season, with three of the games being decided by three points or less.

Rams at Cardinals (-14, 43 ?) - 4:15 PM EST

For the second straight season, the Cardinals wrapped up the NFC West title, as Arizona plays host to struggling St. Louis. The Rams managed a home cover in last week's loss to the Texans, dropping the worst team in football to 1-13.

St. Louis is currently riding a six-game losing skid, but five of those defeats have come by ten points or less. The Rams have managed to cash four of the last six as an away underdog, but are 0-6 ATS the last six on the road against division opponents.

The Cardinals have owned the Rams the last two seasons at University of Phoenix Stadium, beating St. Louis by a combined score of 82-29. Arizona hasn't been as fortunate in the role of a huge favorite under Ken Whisenhunt, putting together a 2-6 ATS mark when laying at least 9 ? points.

Lions at 49ers (-12, 41 ?) - 4:15 PM EST

This game isn't the most intriguing on the board, but there are several solid trends when the Lions travel to Candlestick Park to battle the Niners. San Francisco returns home after falling at Philadelphia, but the non-cover actually bodes well for the Niners this week.

Since Mike Singletary took over as coach in San Francisco last October, the Niners have not lost consecutive games ATS. San Francisco is 13-7-3 ATS under Singletary, but is just 5-5-1 ATS when laying points.

Detroit was fantastic in its 0-16 season as double-digit underdogs, but the Lions are only 3-6 ATS when receiving at least ten points. The Lions are 1-5-1 ATS as a road 'dog of at least 9 ? points, with four of the losses coming by margins of 18, 24, 26, and 45 points.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves
December 24, 2009


In the NFL, the Monday night game that saw the New York Giants dismantle the Redskins had a rippling effect on the adjusted line. Before that outcome, the early Week 16 line open for limited wagering Monday had the Giants as 5 1/2-point favorites over Carolina and the Cowboys four-point road favorites at Washington. Following Monday?s game, the Giants are now seven and the Cowboys six.

Sportsbooks opened Friday night?s game with San Diego traveling to Tennessee with the Titans being a three-point favorite, despite Las Vegas Sports Consultants sending out a recommendation of the Chargers being short one-point favorites.

LVSC?s Senior Oddsmaker Mike Seba explains their thought process on the send out as the Chargers just being on another level than Tennessee right now.

?San Diego still has to win to secure the No. 2 AFC seed. This is a team that has won nine straight and it?s hard to believe they would drop off any this week. Tennessee needs the game just to stay alive, but they?ll be at a disadvantage after losing two of their starting linebackers including the heart of the defense in Keith Bullock.?

San Diego could lose this week and still get the No. 2 seed next week with a win over Washington, but Phillip Rivers 17-0 December record as a starter for the Chargers is pretty impressive and you have to believe he and his team like to swagger with the fact that not many are hotter than them going into the playoffs.

?Once you lose and take off a week, it really is hard to get that momentum back again, and I don?t believe the Chargers will take this game lightly,? Seba explained as another reason they rated the Chargers higher for this game.

The team that no one knows what is going to happen regarding rest is the undefeated Colts. Last week it was thought that they may rest some players at Jacksonville, but once the game got a nice flow of intensity going all the starters remained in the game. The only resting that occurred was on defense that saw a few of their key players only come in only on third downs, or passing situations.

The Colts don?t appear to care too much about going undefeated, but in the back of first year head coach Jim Caldwell?s mind he?s got to be thinking about momentum with hopes of not derailing it like Tony Dungy had done in the past by resting the offense too early prior to the playoffs, then suffering for it in the playoffs.

Caldwell already knows his offense will already have momentum stopped with the bye week when Wild Card weekend is going on, so he may be reluctant to be too quick with the hook if things are going Indy?s way and they have a chance to win in the next two weeks.

The opening line had the Colts as seven-point favorites as they welcome the Jets, but it has dropped to five with the thought process being that the Jets have the No. 1 defense, their physical, they need to win to stay alive, and Caldwell won?t want to see any of his stars get abused in a game they technically don?t need.

It?ll be interesting to see how that game unfolds, but so far, the money is on the Jets.

Hope everyone has a great Christmas and may all your bets be merry this week!

 

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NFL Week 16's biggest line moves

NFL Week 16's biggest line moves

NFL Week 16's biggest line moves


Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-14, 41.5)

Opening Line: 14, 41.5

Where the early action is: 93 percent - Packers

Comments: With the Packers losing to the Steelers last week in last-minute fashion they tightened the three-team race for two NFC wild card spots. Dallas and the Giants both won last week and now it looks like Green Bay will have to win its next two to lock in a playoff spot. The Packers can?t afford any mistakes and looking past the Seahawks to the Cardinals next week isn?t going to happen. Aaron Rogers should put on a great performance in this one.

Fact: Seattle ranks 29th in the league against the pass

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)

Opening Line: 3, 38

Where the early action is: 60 percent - Browns

Comments: The 3-11 Browns have now won two games straight and are listed as favorites for the first time this season. The 5-9 Raiders are coming off a huge upset in Denver as 13.5 underdogs. However, there isn?t much interest in betting this game. Both teams are looking to just finish the season on a positive note. Cold and windy is the Cleveland forecast, which could move the total down closer to game time.

Fact: The Browns have scored 121 points in their last five games. Only 78 point scored in their first nine.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5, 39)

Opening Line: 13.5, 41

Where the early action is: 84 percent - Bengals

Wise Action: Under 41

Comments: Wise action pulling the total down all week despite the Chiefs scoring 34 and allowing 41 last week at home versus Cleveland. The Bengals rank third in both rushing defense and total points allowed. Kansas City?s offense currently ranks 26th in total points scored. The Bengals need to win one of their final two games to take their division and clinch a playoff spot. No one is really touching this point spread outside of Teasers.

Fact: Kansas City has lost 10 of last 11 December games dating back to 2005.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-9, 41)

Opening Line: 8.5, 42

Where the early action is: 70 percent - Falcons

Comments: The line here moved up onto the key number 9 after learning the Bills third-string QB Brian Brohm will be making his first NFL start. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards both are out with ankle injuries.

Fact: The Falcons are 12-3 at home under second-year coach Mike Smith

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 45)

Opening Line: 2.5, 45

Wise action: Houston +3

Where the early action is: 60 percent - Rockets

Comments: Lots of line movement here. It opened -2.5 and was bet up to -3 during the week, but late on Saturday Houston was hit hard by wise action at +3 which dropped the line lower than the opener. Miami?s all round defense ranks very low, most notably its pass defense which ranks 23rd in the league. Houston is all passing which ranks second in the league. The Texans? running offence is nonexistent - ranks 30th in the NFL

Fact: This is the fifth regular season meeting. Houston leads the series 4-0

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-7.5, 42.5)

Opening Line: 6.5, 42.5

Where the early action is: 90 percent - Giants

Comments: The Giants are coming off a big Monday Night road win against Washington and must win out their remaining two games to have a shot at the playoffs. The bettors love the Giants in this one which has moved the line up and through the key number 7. The Panthers? season is all but done and will be without RB DeAngelo Williams this week with an ankle injury. Look for this line to continue to grow.

Fact: The Giants need either Dallas or Green Bay to lose just one of their remaining two games to get into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-14, 49)

Opening Line: 14.5, 50

Where the early action is: 73 percent - Saints

Comments: The Saints still have to win one more game to earn home-field advantage in the NFC. Playing in the Superdome against a 2-12 Tampa Bay team looks like a no contest, but the Bucs are coming off a road win Seattle and could come into this game with new found confidence. Majority of the straight bets are taking the double digit points, but there is a huge amount of Teaser action on the Saints brining the line down to -8 or better.

Fact: The Saints haven't rushed for 100 yards in the last three games, but Tampa Bay ranks 30th in the league stopping the run.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-10, 43.5)

Opening Line: 7.5, 43.5

Wise action: Patriots -9

Where the early action is: 83 percent - Patriots

Comments: The Patriots picked up their first road win this season (on US soil) last week in Buffalo, which could be a huge boost for them this week versus a tough enough Jacksonville teams. The Pats are 7-0 playing at home and look to clinch the AFC East and complete a perfect home slate. This is a fairly high point spread to cover and most bettors aren?t laying the full number, instead they are teasing it down to -3 or better. Because of all the teaser action, we?ve move the line up onto a key number. The Jags are playoff desperate and should keep this game close like they did in Indianapolis last week.

Fact: This will be their fourth regular season meeting in five years. The Patriots are 4-0.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 42)

Opening Line: 2.5, 41

Where the early action is: 96 percent - Steelers

Wise Action: Over 41

Comments: Heavy action on Pittsburgh. The Steelers must win their next two games (Bal, Mia) and get some help from other teams to make it in. The 8-6 Ravens, on the other hand, control their own destiny. Win their next two and they are in. Last week the Steelers defense was terrible, allowing 22 points in the fourth quarter to the Packers. That poor defensive showing was enough to prompt an early over play from the wise guys. However, Pittsburgh still ranks No. 1 in the league against the run. It?s the awful passing defense that?s allowing a whopping 221.1 yards per game. Baltimore?s rushing offense ranks ninth and passing 13th in the league.

Fact: The Ravens have only one win in their past nine trips to Heinz Field.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 41.5)

Opening Line: 7, 41.5

Where the early action is: 76 percent - Eagles

Comments: The Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses, with the most recent let down coming at home against the Raiders last week. But they can still lock themselves a playoff spot by winning their next two games vs. Philly and KC. The Eagles are in but don?t expect them to sit starters here - they will be playing for the NFC East title. The Eagles are a good home team going 5-2 SU but are 4-3 ATS. Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is returning to action this week and is in a good spot to take advantage of Denver?s poor rushing defense which ranks 22nd in the league. Michael Vick didn?t practice this week and will be sidelined with a quad contusion.

Fact: This will be their 11th regular season meeting. Eagles lead series 6-4.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-15, 43.5)

Opening Line: 14, 43.5

Where the early action is: 65 percent ? Cardinals

Comments: Not much interest in this huge point spread. The Cards have wrapped up their division when the Eagles beat the 49ers last week. The Rams, starting rookie QB Keith Null, will look to keep this a low scoring game and run Steven Jackson all day. Arizona could be in rest mode. We?ll be looking to drop this total at first opportunity.

Fact: The Rams are 6-40 since the start of the 2007 season.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5, 41)

Opening Line: 11, 41

Wise Action: 49ers -11, -12, -13

Where the early action is: 88 percent ? 49ers

Comments: All Niners action from everyone. This could be a huge blowout, Merry Christmas. The books will need the Lions to somehow keep this one close.

Fact: The Lions have 19 consecutive road losses.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 40.5)

Opening Line: 6.5, 40.5

Where the early action is: 85 percent - Colts

Comments: The 14-0 Colts have been this season?s best bet covering all but three games. Now, with the AFC Division clinched and home-field throughout the playoffs, resting and limiting starters comes into play. This line has dropped below the key number six not because of the money but only as a precautionary move. The 7-7 Jets are playoffs-desperate and should leave it all on the field and this game might get the break they are looking for if Colts do indeed rest their big guns.

Fact: Jets are tops in the league in rushing, averaging 164.1 yards per game.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+7, 42)

Opening Line: 6.5, 42

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Cowboys

Comments: Dallas will be the most popular bets this week. The Cowboys are a focused on finishing the regular season strong and winning the NFC East. When Romo plays well, they win ? he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions this month. He has had a passer rating of over 100.0 in four straight games. The Skins? season is done and last week?s embarrassing home beat down by the Giants has this team thinking about everything else but football. Lots of negative locker room stuff going on. This line will move up.

Fact: The surging Dallas offense now ranks third in the league in total yards.

 

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Total Talk - Week 16

Total Talk - Week 16

Total Talk - Week 16

Week 15 Recap

Finally, we saw the scoreboard get lit up for the first time in four weeks. After watching the ?under? go 33-14-1 (70%) in the previous three installments, the total wound up going 8-8 last week. Of the eight winning ?over? tickets, seven of them cashed easily with 50 points or more posted on the board. On the year, the ?under? stands at 118-102-3 (54%).

Like any other professional sport, handicapping the final weeks of a season is often considered a crapshoot when it comes to picking sides. The same could be said for totals too, since it?s tough to gauge minutes for both starters and backups.

We did look back at the last three seasons in the NFL and tallied up the total numbers for the past two weeks. The ?over? has produced a 55-40-1 (58%) ledger during this span and quite frankly, there is no rhyme or reason behind it.

Can anybody top 50?

We?ve been tracking totals of 50-plus points all season long and those following along know that the ?under? has gone 9-2 in games where the total was listed at 50 or higher. The Saints have been featured in eight of the 11 contests and the ?under? has produced a 6-2 mark on the year.

Once again, New Orleans will face another 50-point total when it hosts Tampa Bay on Sunday. A few offshore outfits have dropped the number to 49.5 but we still believe the number to close at or above 50 by kickoff.

Gamblers chasing the Saints-Over parlay haven?t seen that combination cash in eight straight weeks. New Orleans started the year on a 6-0 ATS run and then the oddsmakers adjusted with double-digit spreads galore and the aforementioned 50-plus totals.

Since the hot start, the Saints are 2-6 ATS and the ?under? has gone 5-3. New Orleans blasted Tampa Bay 38-7 on Nov. 22 from Raymond James Stadium and the combined 45 points snuck ?under? the closing number of 51. The Bucs actually led 7-0 in this game but their offense (219 yards) couldn?t do anything and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman coughed up the rock four times (3 INTs).

The Bucs and Saints have watched the ?under? go 2-0 in their last two encounters, which includes the meeting in November. Prior to this mini-run, the ?over? did cash in six consecutive outings but make a note that the highest-scoring game in that run only saw a combined 50 points.

Traveling Woes

Some clubs have been able to muster up points on the road, while others haven?t this year. Usually when you can?t score consistently, it produces a lot ?under? tickets and that?s been the case. We?re going to look at a quartet of teams that are traveling this weekend and all four have been golden ?under? plays on the road.

Jacksonville at New England (43.5): The Jaguars will be playing their first road game in four weeks when they visit Gillette Stadium on Sunday for a battle against New England. Jacksonville has watched the ?under? go 4-2 this year on the road, largely due to the team?s offensive numbers (13.8 PPG). The Patriots? defense is giving up an average of 17.4 PPG on the road this season but that number has dropped to 13.7 PPG in their seven home games. Combined these numbers with New England?s 7-1 ?under? run and we could be seeing another low-scoring affair in this matchup.

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (40.5): New York?s offense (22.6 PPG) has been pretty decent on the road but its defense (15.6 PPG) is even better. Even though New York gave up 31 to the Dolphins and Patriots in two games away from home, the Jets have held their other five opponents to an average of 9.4 PPG. The Colts? offense (28.1 PPG) is one of the best in the league but gamblers might be hesitant backing a club that could rest some starters, including QB Peyton Manning.

St. Louis at Arizona (43.5): If you?ve been following the NFL, then it?s safe to say that you know St. Louis?s offense (11.4 PPG) cannot score at all, especially on the road (8.6 PPG). The Rams have seen the ?under? go 5-2 in the Rams? road contests and the two ?over? tickets were very lucky. One game went into overtime and the other tilt saw the Titans put up 47 points in the other matchup. This week, they head to the desert and the ?under? has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings. More importantly, St. Louis has scored 10, 19, 16 and 17 in its last four trips to Arizona. The Rams team total this week is hovering between 13 and 14 points, and all signs point to an ?under? play.

Houston at Miami (45): When it comes to betting on totals, something has to give in this matchup. The Texans have seen the ?under? go 6-1 on the road, but the Dolphins have watched the ?over? go 5-1 at Land Shark Stadium. Houston has averaged 23.6 PPG outside of Texas but the totals have been jacked up that a couple of the games have been near misses. Surprisingly, Houston?s defense (20.3 PPG) has been better on the road, which doesn?t help ?over? tickets. Miami has put up 22 points or more in every home game and has eclipsed the 30-point plateau on three occasions. The Dolphins haven?t used the ?Wildcat? formation as much with Ronnie Brown going on IR, which has led quarterback Chad Henne to air it out early and often. This will be the fourth meeting in the last four years between the two clubs. The ?under? has gone 2-1 during this span.

Indoor Fireworks Not Allowed

Nine out of 32 teams in the NFL play in a dome or a dome with a retractable roof. In past seasons, it?s been known that the game speeds up on the indoor turf. However, that hasn?t been the case this year. Only the Rams have seen the ?over? (5-2) cash more than the ?under? at home and that?s largely due to their defensive efforts (29.7 PPG) from Edward Jones Dome.

Four of the nine clubs will be hosting teams this weekend and we touched on the Saints, Cardinals and Colts above, which leaves us with the Falcons. Ironically, Atlanta has the best ?under? mark at 5-2 of all the teams that play indoors.

The Falcons host the Bills on Sunday and the oddsmakers at betED.com have posted a total of 41 points. Looking at the first seven games played at the Georgia Dome this year, every total except one has been listed higher than 41 points. Buffalo does enter this game banged up and reports have said that third-string quarterback Brian Brohm (former Louisville standout) will be making his first start. Brohm does have weapons on the outside but so did Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. The Bills have seen four of their last five games go ?under? the number and the lone ?over? happened when the offense exploded for 24 points in the final quarter of a 31-14 win over Miami on Nov. 29.

Trend players should note that Atlanta has seen the ?under? go 3-0 in all three of its meetings against the AFC East (Dolphins, Patriots, Jets), and the Bills have watched the ?under? go 2-1 in their three against teams from the NFC South (Bucs, Saints, Panthers).

MNF in the Windy City

The six-game ?under? streak was quickly stopped last Monday when the Giants ripped the Redskins 45-12 on the road. The combined 57 points easily surpassed the closing number of 44. Including this winning ticket, the ?over? is now 9-6 under the lights this season.

This week?s matchup will be at Soldier Field when Minnesota and Chicago knock heads for the second time this season. The Vikings pounded the Bears 36-10 at home on Nov. 29 in a game that featured four field goals and a missed extra point. The total was 47 and ?under? players caught a fortunate winning ticket.

Minnesota and Chicago both enter this contest with identical 7-1 ?under? runs. The Vikings? offense has shown the ability to put up points but the Bears have been running in mud lately. Chicago has averaged 12.3 PPG in its last six games and if you look at the season log for the club, you?ll see that the Bears only exploded against the Browns (30), Lions (48) and Seahawks (25).

The total is sitting at 41.

Fearless Predictions

It doesn?t happen, but a 3-0 mark was posted in this section last week and fairly easily too. On the year, the Best Bets are 15-14-1 (-40) and our teasers are now 4-10-1 (-600). The deficit is down to -640 after last week?s sweep. Hopefully, we can pull out the broom again. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Texans-Dolphins 45

Best Under: Panthers-Giants 42.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under Browns-Raiders 47.5
Over Dolphins-Texans 37
Under Panthers-Giants 49.5

 

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NFL Week 16's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 16's biggest betting mismatches

NFL Week 16's biggest betting mismatches


Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-8, 43.5)

New England's pass offense vs. Jacksonville's pass defense

Jacksonville is 27th in the league in passing defense. After struggling to stop Peyton Manning last week at home, the Jags must deal with Tom Brady on the road. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is questionable for the contest due to a groin injury.

Brady directs the NFL's fourth-ranked passing offense. New England's starting signal-caller hasn't lost at home since 2006. While it is expected to be a rainy and windy day in Foxboro, Brady isn't usually fazed by the elements based on his stellar effort in the snow earlier this season against the Titans.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45)

Houston's pass offense vs. Miami's pass defense

Houston is second in the NFL in passing offense. The club's strong air game has enabled the Texans to defeat Miami in each of the last three seasons at home. Miami native and former Miami Hurricanes standout Andre Johnson (leads NFL in receiving yards) will be eager to do some more damage in his homecoming.

Miami is 23rd in the league in passing defense. In last week's defeat at Tennessee, the secondary was burned for three touchdowns that came from outside the red zone. The unit has struggled to overcome the loss of cornerback Will Allen (ACL injury).

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5, 40)

Cincinnati's rush offense vs. Kansas City's rush defense

The Bengals are sixth in the league in rushing offense with the help of a couple of castoffs from other teams. Former Bears runner Cedric Benson has posted a career-best 1,118 yards to rank seventh in the league while former Chiefs back Larry Johnson has averaged nearly five yards per carry in Cincinnati after being held to under three yards per try earlier in the year in Kansas City.

After allowing the unknown Jerome Harrison to gain nearly 300 yards in last week's defeat to Cleveland, the 31st-ranked rushing defense in the NFL will have to deal with a team that has actually more than pride on the line this week. A victory by the Bengals will enable Cincinnati to reach the postseason for just the second time in the last 19 years.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 40.5)

New York's rush defense vs. Indianapolis rush offense

While this game will match the top passing defense in the league against Peyton Manning and the NFL's top passing offense, New York could use its run defense to gain a scheme advantage on Sunday. The Jets are 10th in the league in rushing defense.

Despite its perfect record, the Colts are tied with Houston for the worst rushing offense in the NFL. Top backs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are questionable to play on what is an extensive Indianapolis injury report. With the club debating whether to risk a healthy postseason roster for a couple of more regular season wins, the Colts will be cautious on how their banged up players are used in the next couple of weeks.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 41.5)

Philadelphia's third-down defense vs. Denver's third-down offense

The Eagles have used a team effort to win its last five outings. While the offense has garnered most of the headlines by averaging over 31 points per game during the run, Philly's defense has also played a role by leading the league in third-down conversion percentage this season.

Denver has been headed in the opposite direction with a 2-6 mark in its last eight outings. An offense that was a clutch unit early in the year has faltered in recent weeks. The Broncos are 23rd in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage offense. The offense was able to convert only 4-of-15 third-down tries in last week's crushing defeat to the Raiders.

 

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NFL Week 16 weather report

NFL Week 16 weather report

NFL Week 16 weather report


Here's the eye of the sky for Week 16 of the NFl season:

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-14, 41.5)

It?s perfect football weather in Wisconsin ? which means snow and lots of it. The forecast is calling for snow showers and temperatures in the 20s at Lambeau Field. The Seahawks are used to bad weather, but playing in the snow is different from playing in the rain.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9, 43.5)

This isn?t the Sunshine State. Jacksonville finds itself in a winter rain storm in New England. The forecast is calling for rain and temperatures to dip to low 40s. The sloppy turf at Gillette Stadium could make running tough for Maurice Jones-Drew. Tom Brady and the boys seem to relish playing in weather like this.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5, 40)

The forecast is calling for snow showers in Ohio Sunday afternoon. Adding to the slick surfaces will be a 13-mph wind blowing WSW from corner to corner, chilling the field into the low 30s. The snow should make running slick and the wind could carry a couple passes off their mark. The under 40 points is looking very tempting.

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3, 38)

For a game this bad, you would only expect the weather to match the talent. While the Raiders and Browns stink it up on the field, Mother Nature does her worst with snow, cold and wind. Flurries and a 12-mph breeze will drop the temperature in Cleveland Stadium into the low 20s come Sunday afternoon.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-13, 41)

Even California can?t escape the bad weather this weekend. The forecast in San Francisco is calling for rain Sunday afternoon. The Lions are used to the dry confines of Ford Field and the trip to the West Coast could have Detroit feeling a little soggy. The Niners have played under the total in four straight games.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+7, 41)

They don?t call it the Windy City for nothing. The early forecast in Chicago calls for strong 23-mph winds ripping through Soldier Field Monday night. Temperatures will fall into the low 30s, taking some of the punch out of each team?s passing attack. Brett Favre may find himself handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson more than looking down field.

 

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DUNKEL INDEX 27 DEC 09

DUNKEL INDEX 27 DEC 09

Today's NFL Picks
Carolina at NY Giants
The Giants look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. New York is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (12/24)
Game 103-104: Seattle at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.006; Green Bay 137.088
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+14); Over
Game 105-106: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.363; Cleveland 124.629
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3 1/2); Under
Game 107-108: Kansas City at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.234; Cincinnati 134.952
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 13; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-13); Under
Game 109-110: Buffalo at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.866; Atlanta 135.166
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under
Game 111-112: Houston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.881; Miami 136.103
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Under
Game 113-114: Carolina at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.848; NY Giants 139.870
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10; 46
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over
Game 115-116: Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.806; New Orleans 141.190
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 14; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-14); Under
Game 117-118: Jacksonville at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.741; New England 140.658
Dunkel Line: New England by 11; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Over
Game 119-120: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 132.959; Pittsburgh 132.563
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over
Game 121-122: Denver at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.520; Philadelphia 140.306
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Over
Game 123-124: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.038; Arizona 135.891
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 16; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 14; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-14); Under
Game 125-126: Detroit at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.164; San Francisco 132.087
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 15; 33
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 12; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-12); Under
Game 127-128: NY Jets at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.235; Indianapolis 143.727
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over
Game 129-130: Dallas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.860; Washington 131.614
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (12/24)
Game 131-132: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 140.093; Chicago 127.060
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (12/24)
Game 101-102: San Diego at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 139.610; Tennessee 138.831
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under